James Lunney, Conservative MP - better drop leaflets before you bomb!

Then again, somebody will probably suggest saving the paper by just sending emails to the drop zone.

Can't we get rid of this guy?  Someone do a count of how many times he's raised ANYTHING to do with the Alberni Valley or West Coast, and sent it to the AV Times.  I swear I've NEVER seen him speak on anything to do with the community that sent him here.

How Tory is his riding?

It is not, NDP, Green Party and Liberal votes outweigh Lunney's supporter's votes.

But not by that much.

Unlike in Saanich Gulf Islands, the Liberal vote is way behind.

Its definitely not a Conservative riding. Its one of those Cons/NDP swings typical in hinterlands BC and some of the suburbs. The closest the NDP got to Lumney was 4,000 votes, and the spread has increased in the 2 elections since to 9,000.

Even a 4,000 spread would not be on the verge of winning... even with this Cons/NDP dynamic tending to work in the NDPs favour in BC.

OO's idea is great for anyone resident in the riding.

Nanaimo-Alberni would have been considered a slam dunk NDP seat during the '60's, 70's, and 80's. The problem is the 'Albertan retiree' phenomena that started to take hold during the 1980's in the higher growth population area along Vancouver island's east coast from north Nanaimo, Lantzville, Nanoose Bay, Parksville and Qualicum Beach trending the riding Con. Only the old mill town of Port Alberni and the small west coast towns of Ucluelet/Tofino still trend NDP.

The 2008 riding result showed 47% - 32% result in favor of the Cons.

That same 'Albertan retiree' phenomena is beginning to take hold in neighbouring Vancouver Island North from the Comox Valley to Campbell River. Albertans were responsible for ~25% of all real estate purchases in the Comox Valley in 2007.

That doesn't mean that the NDP can't win Nanaimo Alberni. The NDP needs a high calibre candidate, an excellent GOTV, and a slump/split in the Con vote. 

And it would also for the Liberals to do better- which sucks a lot more votes from the Cons, than the NDP.

The low Liberal vote in 2008 was the margin that got North Island back for the Cons. While in Nanaimo-Alberni it just made the margin that much bigger for the Cons.

Also, a strong focus on the pensions issue couldn't hurt.

From Hansard:

One could not imagine an issue of less relevance to Nanaimo-Alberni.  They've sent cabinet ministers in to do events with Lunney.  I think they're worried about the seat.  I hope we target him hard.

Here is the electoral map of Nanaimo--Alberni from the 2008 federal election [13].

Unfortunately that link is not working for me, Krago.  Is there some kind of permissions issue with google.docs ?

I do recognize what Centrist was saying about the demographics of the east part of the riding, but we hold part of it provincially with Leonard Krog, our candidate Zeni Maartman is from that side of the riding, and with pensions and the HST issue, one could make a bit of a dent, no?

I'll wait to see the map.

All my Googlepages websites got migrated over to Google Sites, and I can't figure out yet how to upload or link to documents.  The help link is less than helpful.

I know of someone who works with Google Sites, but I don't.  Hopefully they will see your post and come to your rescue.

Yeah, after redistribution provincially, a portion of north Nanaimo (in the federal seat) was placed into Leonard's Nanaimo seat. Scott Fraser's Alberni-Pacific Rim seat is also within the federal riding as well as Parksville Qualicum held by a no name Lib.

Incidentally, the provincial NDP vote surged in every Vancouver Island seat in May, 2009 with the exception of Comox Valley.    

Maartman seems to have some good and broad credentials inclusive of being active in a local chamber of commerce although she does not have much of a name recognition factor.

BTW, I would sure love to see that colour-coded riding map Krago!

We need to get more of the homeless people on the Island voting. Their numbers, I think, are growing.

I would have thought most of them would be in Victoria riding, no?

...............

i guess he doesn't go by dr. james lunney anymore....



Sunday, October 22, 2006 
Conservative MP Sued For Using the Title 'Doctor'

Nanaimo-Alberni MP James Lunney is being sued by a man who claims the chiropractor has misused the title of doctor for political gain.

Nanaimo's Robert Pound, in documents filed in B.C. Supreme Court in September, claims that Lunney's use of the term doctor has been confusing to voters and others.

The Chiropractors Act states that chiropractors "may display or make use of the title 'doctor' or the abbreviation 'Dr.', but only as 'Doctor of Chiropractic', 'Dr. of Chiropractic', 'Chiropractic Doctor' or 'Chiropractic Dr.'"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nanaimo%E2%80%94Alberni

election breakdown on the riding...

It looks from that breakdown as if the key shift in the riding occurred between 1980 and 1984.

I think I've got the map working now.

Love your maps, Krago.

I guess the poll by poll results come from the Elections Canada website, but where do you find maps showing the boundary of each poll within a given riding?

Thanks, Krago.  So, the first nations on the west coast are solidly overwhelmingly NDP (including the home of the new AFN National Chief, Ahousaht), we win Tofino, Ucluelet and Bamfield on the west coast and Lasqueti Island in the Strait of Georgia with a decent vote, and it also looks like a lot of support in and around Port Alberni, a few polls in Parksville, nothing in Qualicum Beach, and some in north Nanaimo.

The last time we won Nanaimo-Alberni was indeed a long time ago, but we had Comox-Alberni from 1988 to 1993 with Bob Skelly, and his brother Ray represented North Island-Powell River.  Maybe having Comox in the riding was key to making it winnable.  Did it look to you like Cumberland (the only mining town, home of Ginger Goodwin) was in Nanaimo-Alberni or in Vancouver Island North?

It will be interesting to see what happens to this part of BC in the next redistribution. BC will get new seats and the Vancouver Island ridings are clearly over-populated.  Here is what i would like to see happen:

Shift the largely NDP voting "Sunshine coast" part of West Vancouver-Seat to Sky-Sunshine coast into the North Vancouver Island riding where it belongs and give that riding a new name (i.e. NorthVancouver Island-Sunshine Coast?).

Take some of the Tory-voting Comox valley part of NVI away and combine it with the Parksville, Qualicam Beach areas from nanaimo Alberni and make a new riding that packs all the Alberta retirees into one safe Tory riding.

Create a new riding made up oif what's left of nanaimo-Alberni and some parts of nanaimo-Cowichan.

But, Stockholm, Courtenay, Cumberland and Denman/Hornby Islands are all good NDP areas.

Also, there's a practical problem with your suggestion, namely that you can't get into Port Alberni from Nanaimo, except through either Parksville or Qualicum Beach.  And the parts further north up the east Island highway between Qualicum and Courtenay-Comox are not all bad for the NDP either (e.g., Oyster Bay), or at least they didn't used to be.

I agree with your formulation about trying to add Powell River and Sunshine Coast to Vancouver Island North, but isn't there some of the mainland in it already?  Oh wait, I just looked: it's all the area north of Powell River, so yes the current representation order is hard for us, but a redistricting that would put Gibsons through Sechelt and up to Powell River, plus Texada Island, together with Campbell River and north Vancouver Island, would make that seat more like it was between 1988 and 1997, and much more winnable.  Then put Comox-Courtenay, together with Cumberland, Denman/Hornby Islands together with Port Alberni and the west Coast, and throw in Qualicum Beach, since you need a way to get from one place to the other, and you have another good seat.  Finally leave Parksville, Nanoose Bay and North Nanaimo for the other guys.

Just some population figures (2006), and growth rates, for Vancouver Island ridings:

Nanaimo Cowichan - 125,149 (7.2%)

Nanaimo Alberni - 121,434 (7.5%)

Esquimalt Juan de Fuca - 120,669 (8.8%)

Saanich Gulf Islands - 115,724 (4.9%)

Vancouver Island North - 113,356 (3.6%)

Victoria - 108,771 (4.0%)

Compares with a BC population of 4,113,487, and 5.3% growth.

The Albertan retire phenomenon took hold right up to Parksville during the 1980's because of relatively easy access from Nanaimo Airport as well as a 4-lane divided highway right up to Parksville providing further relatively easy access. Thereafter, the old 2-lane, highway right up to Campbell River was slow and windy disuading people from moving there.

The problem is that a 110 km/hr freeway was completed right up to Campbell River circa 2000 opening up the entire corridor for quick and easy access to Albertans. More importantly, the opening of the Comox airport has caused a boom in air travel with WestJet having twice daily flights to Calgary and once daily to Edmonton.

Ergo, developments are now geared toward Albertan retirees through Courtenay and Comox right up to Campbell River. I'd wager that within another 10 - 15 years the same Albertan retiree demographic will take hold along the entire east coast of Vancouver Island from North Nanaimo to Campbell River.

This newspaper article from a couple of years ago provides some further insight into this phenomena:

http://tinyurl.com/ya6cdog

BTW, thanks Krago!  

Nanaimo-Alberni will be harder for the NDP to win than Nanaimo-Cowichan was for Jean Crowder, but I would like to see it happen.

I'm just glad James Lunney was awake that day. Along with Deepak Obhrai, he has a habit of falling asleep on the job and needing to get woken up by his aides. The last (and only) time I saw James Lunney in the national news was when he had to explain why his office had requested a free ticket to "Young People F$cking" or something like that.

So, what WAS his explanation? 

Duplicate

I looked it up, his excuse was "it wasn't me [36]."

Here is the electoral map of West Vancouver--Sunshine Coast--Sea to Sky Country  from the 2008 federal election.

Also, as a clarification to what has been said earlier, the BC Liberal MLA for Parksville Qualicum is the very lazy but high profile former Nanaimo city councillor Ron Cantelon. The day he loses his seat is the day the BC NDP wins a cozy majority- in other words, not any time soon. Qualicum has been trending mildly NDP in recent elections. The opposite effect is going on in North Nanaimo, Parksville, and Lantzville.

Generally speaking, the demographics are killing the NDP in this riding. The parts of the riding where they do well have been dying for a very long time. They are those remnants of areas where people used to make their livings off forestry, fishing, and (in a few places) mining. Of course, there is always the neo-classical resort of Tofino and one or two hippy enclaves in the riding also.

While the NDP parts of the riding decline, North Nanaimo, Parksville, and Lantzville have been growing. I also have serious doubts that the pension issue would help because these retirees are rich enough that they don't give a rat's ass about the GIS or any government supported pension. They are building big box homes and buying pieces of beach front (or close to the beach) property.

Finally, the NDP candidate Zeni Maartman is a liability. She is a weak candidate.

As for Centrist prescription: "The NDP needs a high calibre candidate, an excellent GOTV, and a slump/split in the Con vote."

I think it is easier than that. If the NDP dumps Maartman and nominates MLA Leonard Krog, they will have Nanaimo-Alberni in the bag. Leonard Krog has represented all of the non-NDP areas of Nanaimo-Alberni (recently!) as an MLA and is very well known. He was born and raised in Coombs. He also doesn't win his elections by accident. He has a committed core of volunteers that follows him around. Should we start a draft Krog campaign?

There are many other potential candidates more credible than Maartman, but I believe they have concluded they would lose and thus checked out.

http://www.leg.bc.ca/MLA/38thParl/krog.htm

not sure how krog makes the jump from local mla in the south end of nanaimo to federal candidate in the north end, but otherwise i think it is a good idea...

V. Jara, I'm not on the same Leonard Krog bandwagon that you are but I will leave it at that. Don't we have a "Fin Donnelly" on Nanaimo or Parksville councils? That would certainly assist in growing NDP support. BTW, I'm not familar with council make-up over there.

Even if Stockholm's suggestion for redistribution was implemented - if VIN's southern boundary was moved northward to Courtenay and Powell River/Sunshine Coast was added into VIN, I doubt the 2008 result would have been much different.

According to Krago's map, the area of Powell River/Sunshine coast generally went Con with some NDP support around Powell River and Lib support in the Sunshine Coast area and north of Powell River.

BTW, thanks again Krago!

Leonard Krog's riding was shifted well northward when the boundaries were redrawn for 2009. A redistribution of the vote took his NDP/LIB 52/34 margin to 45/43. He was also running against a well known (albeit light weight) city councilor. It should have been a dog fight. In the end, the BC NDP lost almost every swing riding, jumped the shark on the election, and Krog won 54/36. It was a trend-bucking win.

From 1991-1996, Leonard Krog represented Parksville-Qualicum, which is the remaining NDP no zone within the Nanaimo-Alberni riding.

As for Nanaimo council, it is completely controlled by right-wingers. It has had two quasi-progressives in recent times: Fred Pattje (2008- present) and Dianne Brennan (2002-2008). Dianne Brennan ran for mayor as a "moderate" and got trounced in 2008. Zeni Maartman ran for council in 2005 and finished 20th [42]: I can only identify one progressive candidate as having done worse. What the left dominates is the school board. The president is Jamie Brennan (Diane's husband) and all of the members are progressive, but it is low profile.

This is entirely correct - Nanaimo-Alberni is probably the least likely NDP gain on Vancouver Island - we have a very good shot at taking back Vancouver Island North, and we have better chances in Esquimalt-JDF and even Saanich Gulf-Islands (if May wasn't running there).  Nanaimo-Alberni a hard-core Conservative seat and getting more so with every election due to the demographic changes outlined above, citing 1984 or 1988 results with Bob and Ray Skelly is ancient history.  It's a long-term trend similar to the disaffection of parts of Burnaby to the BC NDP with the larger Chinese-Canadian population in those ridings, or the gentrifying condos in Yaletown that mean Vancouver Centre will likely never go NDP in the forseeable future. 

Krog is not the issue - he won't run federally in any event as he wants to replace James as leader, or serve in her Cabinet as Attorney-General if she runs and wins in 2013.  The only slim chance the federal NDP has here would be for an improbable Liberal resurgence under a new right-wing leader like McKenna - to steal the soft Cons votes and allow the NDP to come up the middle.  Not going to happen next time under Iggy, that's for sure.

They're all over.

Homeless in Nanaimo

Homeless in Duncan [45] (Jean Crowder site)

Homeless in the Comox Valley [46]

i wouldn't want to be a homeless person, especially in saskatchewan right now.... - climatically, vancouver island draws a certain crowd... wealthy retired folks from anywhere east of here( and sometimes south - usa) and those who suffer from homelessness in canada... being on the island is definitely better then being stuck in a big city like vancouver, in some respects....

What's astonishing is that Canada has plenty of homeless people in places like Edmonton, Regina, and Winnipeg ... year round. The numbers swelled in the summer, in Winnipeg for example - around Osborne Village, but were still significant in the cold weather.

WCL is right about Saanich Gulf Islands and Esquimalt - Juan de Fuca would be on the radar too if it wasn't such a populist riding. Essentially, short of a maverick NDPer running there, winning the riding consists in cracking the hard nut of 3 demographic groups: people in the trades (they currently vote too Conservative), CFB Esquimalt (the NDP will likely never win here but needs to learn how to lose less badly), and the elderly. A new group that is becoming more important is the Victoria commuters crowd. It is hard to say which way this vote will continue to trend as some of the commuters live in wealthy areas with golf courses or big new houses, whereas others are individuals that have been priced out of the Victoria real estate market and live in Langford. One thing that is certain is that public transit, at least for a portion of the riding is very important and underdeveloped (because a lot of the new development in this riding is new).

In Saanich Gulf Islands, so long as there is a credible Green candidate, it is hard for the NDP to win. If the NDP could magically win some of the higher income votes in the riding (which usually go heavily Conservative), then this riding could become more competitive. At present, the NDP's strategy is the unsatisfying one of trying to prevent the Liberals and Greens from winning the seat with star candidates. Elizabeth May is going to capture a lot of the Liberal vote next time around, but as there is likely to be a real NDP candidate this time I think she will lose again. She just doesn't have the right appeal to win the riding. You need the green credentials + the working class credentials + some appeal among the wealthier residents to win this one if your not a Conservative. The Conservatives have the perfect mix of working class credentials + appeal among the rich to stay pretty stable in this riding. It will be interesting to see what approach EMay employs in SGI. I think if the NDP candidate is strong, her best chance is to throw the working class under the bus and pander to the Red Tories and the rich. Under such a scenario, every wealthy vote she substracts from the Conservatives is worth a 2 vote swing and the NDP will probably vacuum up all the working class votes that remain. Many working class or middle class NDPers will also make the mistake of holding their nose and voting Green, just to get rid of Gary Lunn. If May runs to the right, she will also have an easier time collapsing the vote of the Federal Libs. The NDP's line, in such a scenario, would be to decry both right wing candidates and likely finish a distant but respectable third.

Here are the electoral maps for Saanich--Gulf Islands for the past three federal elections: 2004, 2006 [51] and 2008 [52].  Enjoy!

Bear Mountain is also in Langford and ~5,000 residences are anticipated at build-out over the next 10 - 20 years with mostly higher-end single family homes and townhomes surrounded by golf courses and vistas. Isn't the demographic on Bear Mountian akin to Heritage Mountain in Port Moody and Westwood Plateau/Burke Mountain in neighbouring Coquitlam, which seems to go heavily Con?

FWIW there are two BC provincial ridings that make up the federal riding of Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca and both are supersafe NDP seats: Esquimalt-Royal Roads went NDP over BC Liberal by an almost 2-1 margin despite the grade Z BC Green leader siphoning off 3,000 votes and Juan de Fuca also went NDP by a landslide of 11,500 to 6,800.

I realize that there is not PERFECT correlation between federal and provincial voting patterns in BC - but it does give us an indication of the overall right/left tilt in a riding and of NDP potential winnability. I firmly believe that if the inexplicably popular unctuous sanctimonious DOCTOR PROFESSOR Keith Martin announced he was quitting - in the next election Liberal support would instantly crash to about 12% of the vote and the NDP would win it easily over the Tories.

Bear Mountain, when fully populated, will be high income and likely non-NDP.

Can I quote you on that?

EDITED TO TAKE OUT THE STUPID PART.  STUPIDITY MUST NOT EXIST.  DISCUSS.

Some other thing I can't think of it.

Signed,

The Pie

Speaking of SGI, the following tidbit recently jumped out at me - From Stephen Ree's blog and a guest article by an Andy Shadrock:

http://stephenrees.wordpress.com/2009/12/06/beyond-copehagen-the-harsh-realities-of-canadian-politics/

A bit of a head scratcher. Does anyone know anything about this?

Sounds like total fabrication. I would be willing to bet that 37 out of 37 NDP MPs hate Elizabeth May's guts.

Andy Shadrack is a committed Green Party [60] activist in BC. I wouldn't put much stock in his article. It is probably the kind of thing that fits into the category of internal polls showing the Greens in first place a couple of days before the election and then losing their rebate on the day of the vote. As for Bear Mountain, it's just my guess. There was a lot of opposition to the project from environmentalists, it is built around the idea of large modern homes surrounded by golf courses, you have to get in your car and drive everywhere if you want any services (it is not within walking distance of anything) and so I figured...probably not a place the NDP crowd will be moving any time soon.

From Hansard

Hey Mr. Lunney, did you notice the 1400 palestinians killed by the Israeli army in Operation Cast Lead?  Did you notice the 5000 injured? Did you notice the white phosphorous bombs raining down on the UN compound or the flachette bombs killing innocent children and women.  Did you notice the destruction of the water treatment plant?  Did you notice that not a single Israeli was killed in 2008 by a rocket launched grenade until Israel launched its Gaza massacre?

Have you noticed that Israel has never ever acknowleged the right of a Palestinian state to exist? 

Have you noticed that a 10 month settlement freeze excludes 3000 new homes under or approved for construction, which makes the term "settlement freeze" a complete joke?

Have you noticed the Israeli settlers ripping up the olive groves of the palestinians, or burning their mosques.  Have you noticed that the settlements and the blockade of Gaza is illegal?

Have you noticed how much of a puppet you are for Israel and right wing Jewish lobbyists? Have you noticed how far your head is up your ass?

We have.

And if any readers here remain unconvinced...

James Lunney v. Evolution

LOL - a reader comment:

In order for Elizabeth May to win, I think that BOTH the Liberals and the NDP would have to pull their candidates AND convince all the non-Conservative voters to support her.

The Liberals and the NDP were able to help Joe Clark and the PC's beat Reform in Calgary Centre in 2000, but I don't think they can do it in Sannich-Gulf Islands.  There is too much ground for Elizabeth May to make up - that's why she doesn't understand.

And why would the Liberals and the NDP want to help Elizabeth May anyway?

Well, YOUR party helped her last time. 

I have already said that I have been unaffiliated for the past several years.

Anyway, let's stick to discussing Elizabeth May.

No offence, but there are other threads that may be more suitable for that.

The perfect storm for EMay I think is to have Liberal and NDP candidates on the ballot who are largely invisible/do not campaign. This is because there are enough Liberal and NDP voters that would vote Conservative if their first choice wasn't on the ballot that not having a Liberal and NDP candidate on the ballot could actually cost May the riding. This is part of the reason that Lunn gained raw votes in the last campaign. With the NDP candidate dropped out of the race, many would be NDP votes went Conservative. If Lunn's numbers had held steady from 2006 or declined, he would no longer be the MP. For those that don't buy my argument, look at 2006: the Liberals and NDP combined (forget the Greens) got well over 50% and enough votes to have allowed Briony Penn to win in a landslide had she carried them all in 2008. As it is, she didn't even carry half of them.

V. Jara, if you take non-voters into account, not very much switched to the Conservatives, actually.  The NDP dropped 15.4 points (taken as a percent of the electorate), of which 8.6 points went to the Liberals, 3.3 points went Conservative, 2.8 stayed home, and 0.1 went Green, with the rest going "other" I presume or spoiling their ballots.  Of course almost none of it switched to the Greens, either.  But still, the Liberals did take over half the drop in the NDP vote last time if you look at the raw numbers rather than the vote-share.  It's just that turnout went down at the same time, which distorts the percentages.

Justly or not, oo, I am taking the raw vote numbers. The reason for this, is that if the support was out there, it could be mobilised. Either Penn's voter id and GOTV efforts failed or enough people weren't motivated to support her. Penn's campaign manager, Kit Bond, stated in the press at E+1 that it was probably the latter.

ETA:And yes, oo, you are of course right about the swing to the Conservatives being small.

It makes sense to me that people might be less than thrilled about going out to vote for their presumably second choice in that riding, given the dismal performance of the Liberal campaign towards the end.  It's not like they could have believed they would be putting Briony Penn into cabinet or anything.  I wouldn't have been very motivated to go and vote in that situation either.

From the Nanaimo News:

MP's working while Parliament down

LOL - working hard for his constituents in Israel?