Submitted by NorthReport on July 21, 2010 - 1:20pm.
Latest Nanos Poll: May 3, 2010 - Jun 3, 2010
C - 36%
L - 29%
N - 21% , up 5%
B - 9%
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Submitted by Sean in Ottawa on July 21, 2010 - 2:03pm.
When was this released? The date on their website is May3-June 3-- a month and a half old.
Very nice numbers -- I wonder how long we will wait for regionals.
Over such a long period of time I wonder how the poll could even have a meaning though.
Also I wonder why the Cons would want an election. Certainly there is no prospect of a majority with any numbers we have seen in more than a year.
Are the Liberals doing that badly financially that the Cons can rely on that advantage alone?
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Submitted by Boom Boom on July 21, 2010 - 2:26pm.
Very impressive number for the NDP. Is it time to get excited yet?
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Submitted by Caissa on July 21, 2010 - 2:35pm.
No.
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Submitted by thorin_bane on July 21, 2010 - 5:23pm.
No and sean raises a good point. Why did these numbers take so long to get out?
“It was always my intent that, whenever I decided that the passion for partisan politics was on the wane, that it would be time to exit,” Mr. Hill told Moose radio, his local station, on Wednesday.
If that just doesn't speak to their motto. Partisan politics above everything else. Maybe he is having problems with Herr Harpers plans.
According to the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, Mr. Hills pension upon retirement will amount to $110,269 per year.
Oh that pension all the reformers said they would never take. I guess earning more than double what real working people get for a hard days work while sitting on ones ass can change your mind in a hurry, Does he get to double dip as well. Or does he have to wait till he is 65 like the rest of us slobs.
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Submitted by edmundoconnor on July 21, 2010 - 6:03pm.
The pension is just one of many issues that former Reformers threw under the bus. I guess that when they joined a new party they got a do-over.
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Submitted by 6079_Smith_W on July 21, 2010 - 6:31pm.
edmundoconnor wrote:
The pension is just one of many issues that former Reformers threw under the bus. I guess that when they joined a new party they got a do-over.
I don't think it's even a case of Reformers taking over the Progressive Conservatives, because neither really exists anymore. The only thing running that government is some wierd mutant power-hungry beast that lives in the PMO's office.
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Submitted by NorthReport on July 27, 2010 - 5:16pm.
The latest Nanos (Canada's most accurate pollster) Poll, taken May 3 to June 3, 2010, before the probably useless summer polling, shows the NDP up 5%, and within 8% of the Official Opposition. With the weakness being exhibited by Ignatieff's leadership, there probably has never been a better opportunity for Layton to capitalize on the Liberal Party's deteriorating situation. The NDP elected 37 MPs with 18% of the vote in the last election, so with 21% of the vote the NDP could receive 40-50 seats. And with 25% of the vote the NDP could receive how many seats? Any ideas?
Paul Wells gets it right which Doug referred to in the Alf Apps: meet Jim Harris thread started by OO.
And Wells has added an update to what he originally posted.
Quote:
Pre-election peaks and doldrums, or, a lesson for Alf (UPDATED
As a rule of thumb, the Harper-era Conservative writ-period bounce seems to be about five percentage points or a little more. The Liberal writ-period decline is comparable. Which means if the two parties are tied in voter support on the day a campaign begins, the Liberals should, as a rule of thumb, expect to be 10 points behind when people actually vote. Right now the two parties are not tied.
Of course history isn't fate. There will be elections where the Conservatives don't benefit from a 10-point swing during the writ period. But if you're writing an 18-page memo about polls sometime soon you might want to mention this very robust trend.
UPDATE, Sunday: Many commentators say three data points (2004, 2006, 2008) is a flimsy data set. Quite true. Here are two more. The 13th link from the bottom. ("Update on the Federal Political Landscape") from a list of old Ekos polls shows you an Ekos/Torstar poll from 2002; like Nanos, Ekos gives a longish time series of its party-preference polling. What kind of jumps out is that the two lowest troughs in Liberal support since the late 1990s are the two moments when Canadians actually voted: the 1997 election and the 2000 election. If anything, the combined swing illustrated by Liberal declines and PC/Reform/Alliance gains is more than 10 points.
So that's five federal elections in a row, 1997 to 2008, where the trend is for the Liberals to bottom out and the (assorted conservative, then Conservative Party) opponent to have better results than recent polls had indicated. Note that this isn't about "governments" dipping while "oppositions" gain: conservative parties posted writ-period gains against the Liberals without regard to which of them was in power.
I'm told this pattern goes back decades. I'm looking for confirmation.
Submitted by Sean in Ottawa on July 22, 2010 - 12:49am.
North Report -- you want to know how many seats the NDP would get with 25%-- well 27% gets you 77 apparently...
At least the Liberals can now calculate how many seats you get with 18% as well...
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Submitted by NorthReport on July 22, 2010 - 12:53am.
Good one or is that two Sean.
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Submitted by NorthReport on July 22, 2010 - 1:05am.
In the last election in 2008:
With 38% of the vote the Cons got 46% of the seats and are overrepresented in the HoC
With 26% of the vote the Libs got 25% of the seats and got basically what they deserved in the HoC
With 18% of the vote the NDP got 12% of the seats and are underrepresented in the HoC
With 10% of the vote the Bloc got 16% of the seats and are overrepresented in the HoC
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Submitted by thorin_bane on July 22, 2010 - 4:46am.
I hate to add but you can put the greens in there with 5%(or so) and have never been represented. Fully half the support of the bloc with NO representation. I may not agree with the greens but that seems at odds with any actual democracy. Take 10 seats away from harper and give them to the greens and a further 10 from each the cons and bloc and give them to the NDP...really different looking HoC
PR(other than preferential voting) could finally change the landscape(somewhat ) in this country. 65% of canadians believe we need it. The problem is when its actual voting time, most don't go out(More than any party gets support). The powers that be put maximum effort to stiffle it, and we can't agree on a good system. Instead we vote down even something that would be fairer, just because its not being exactly what we want.
Hey I don't like STV but would take it over FPTP or preferential.
Open list MMP please and soon.
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Submitted by ottawaobserver on July 22, 2010 - 8:10am.
It's probably unkind to point this out, but the week that Michael Ignatieff went on tour, the NDP went up by 4 points.
I think we're in a period of change in which the NDP will eventually pass the Liberals in popular support, because the Liberals are so depressingly similar to the Cons, and with such crappy leadership in Iggy.
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Submitted by Sean in Ottawa on July 22, 2010 - 10:59am.
The Liberal "brand" as some point out has a certain resilience -- as does the Conservative "brand"-- both have a lot more support than can be explained under current policies, circumstances and leadership. It remains to be seen what will happen since the NDP has not passed the Liberals. I suspect there is a tipping point when all the hot air would leave the balloon but I don't know wher ethat tipping point is. I suspect it may be only once the NDP passes the Liberals in seats -- in other words the NDP may ahve to really out do the Liberals by a lot in order to get to that point.
This could happen suddenly, as I have stated often political change is rapid.I have argued here that political culture moves slowly but manifests itself rapidly in politics on the ground once a tipping point is reached. Unfortunately, depending on where that tipping point actually is, there may be a prolonged period of time as the two parties compete on a fairly equal basis for a time. To complicate matters, people in Ontario (where I live) often forget that there is not a single political culture in Canada but rather several regional ones. This is why the parties may compete equally for a time- this tipping point has been reached in some provinces at times (and then reversed in some cases). This time the tipping point may be located in some regions differently than in others. We could see the Liberals eclipsed by the NDP in several regions while in others still retaining the lead.
Traditionally, I believe some parts of the country are more plugged in and aware than others. In particular BC and Quebec pay attention to what their politicians are saying and are more confident rejecting old visions that don't fit and replacing them with new ones so the tipping point in those provinces may be much lower because they pay more attention to the content and less to the labels of the parties whereas, I am sorry to say, Ontario pays a lot more attention to the labels and less to the actual politics and is therefore slower to recognize and embrace change.
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Submitted by alan smithee on July 22, 2010 - 11:13am.
It's looking like it's going to be Quebec that will save Canada from a Harper majority come the next election...
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Submitted by jrootham on July 22, 2010 - 11:20am.
One of the many reasons why my Canada includes Quebec (for as long as they want).
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Submitted by Sean in Ottawa on July 22, 2010 - 11:53am.
Many people are unaware of how often Quebec leads on social policy and practical government policy-- including initiatives for the environment. They do at times go in the wrong direction but there is a lot that we learn from them and anyone who is familiar with the First Ministers' meetings understands the important role they play from an ideas point of view. This is not a new thing either.
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Submitted by bekayne on July 22, 2010 - 1:06pm.
ottawaobserver wrote:
It's probably unkind to point this out, but the week that Michael Ignatieff went on tour, the NDP went up by 4 points.
What I don't understand is that if Ekos is going to do these 2-week polls, and release the results for each week, why don't they have the same sample size for each week?
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Submitted by Boom Boom on July 22, 2010 - 1:12pm.
Sean in Ottawa wrote:
Many people are unaware of how often Quebec leads on social policy and practical government policy-- including initiatives for the environment. They do at times go in the wrong direction but there is a lot that we learn from them and anyone who is familiar with the First Ministers' meetings understands the important role they play from an ideas point of view. This is not a new thing either.
I'd agree for the most part, but hasn't Quebec embraced private health care more than the rest of the country? Or maybe it's just Charest forcing it on us (I've lived in Quebec since 1995), I'm not sure.
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Submitted by ottawaobserver on July 22, 2010 - 2:30pm.
bekayne wrote:
What I don't understand is that if Ekos is going to do these 2-week polls, and release the results for each week, why don't they have the same sample size for each week?
I just took it that they phone and phone, and then report the number of completed surveys they get. It's interesting that they seem to have obtained a higher response rate in the second week, but who knows what that means.
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Submitted by Sean in Ottawa on July 22, 2010 - 5:13pm.
Boom Boom wrote:
Sean in Ottawa wrote:
Many people are unaware of how often Quebec leads on social policy and practical government policy-- including initiatives for the environment. They do at times go in the wrong direction but there is a lot that we learn from them and anyone who is familiar with the First Ministers' meetings understands the important role they play from an ideas point of view. This is not a new thing either.
I'd agree for the most part, but hasn't Quebec embraced private health care more than the rest of the country? Or maybe it's just Charest forcing it on us (I've lived in Quebec since 1995), I'm not sure.
that was what I was thinking of when I said soemtimes in the wrong direction. Quebec may not always choose the best policy -- like any jurisdiction but they sure do have a fount of ideas to consider
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Submitted by NorthReport on July 22, 2010 - 9:14pm.
Not a team player, the team being Team Harper, is the reason Greg is gone.
http://twitter.com/gmacofglebe/status/19287709562
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Submitted by ottawaobserver on July 22, 2010 - 9:29pm.
He's an independent thinker and well-researched columnist, who got called a conservative hack here on Babble once too often, but as always, real life is more complicated.
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Submitted by NorthReport on July 22, 2010 - 9:43pm.
According to this poll the NDP are now within 7% of the Official Opposition Party.
By a country mile, the most entertaining federal political pundit that has hit Canadian politics for a long time. She's absolutely delightful.
Here's a sample:
EKOS of the Week: The Others are coming! The Others are coming! (To Saskitoba, that is.)
I'm not positive, but I'm fairly sure this is the first time that The Others have managed to oust a listed party -- just two weeks after they quite literally fell off the map. You wanna talk momentum? It's all about The Others in Saskitoba. Oh, and in slightly less whimsical news, the NDP seems to have recovered from its prairie malaise, and is now within ten points of the Conservatives, and the Liberals -- well, they're still ahead of The Others, which is more than you can say for the Greens.
Submitted by NorthReport on July 22, 2010 - 9:54pm.
Someone's obviously is less than enthusiastic about the present Liberal Party leadership. As long as people like Scott Reid (Paul Martin's guy) continue to be mouthpieces for them there's little hope for a revival.
Quote:
If Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff was hoping for an enthusiastic endorsement from former prime minister Jean Chretien during his stopover in Shawinigan, Que., Thursday, he may be feeling a little less than satisfied.
Ignatieff's Liberal Express bus rolled into Shawinigan, early Thursday with the intention that the leader could meet with the former prime minister and mend fences damaged by Chretien's musings on a Liberal-NDP coalition.
As well, the former prime minister has been less than enthusiastic about Ignatieff, who has struggled badly in the polls.
When reporters asked Chretien whether he thought that Ignatieff was the best man for the job, Chretien answered cryptically.
"He is the leader. The leader is always the best guy for the job," he said.
When asked whether that was a yes or a no, he answered: "I said he's the best guy for the job because he's the leader; there's no other."
Submitted by NorthReport on July 22, 2010 - 10:23pm.
The NDP are fortunate indeed to have such a class act as exhibited by their leader. The NDP's political fortunes could sustantially improve in the next election.
Quote:
Vindication for Taliban Jack
So now it's time to talk to the Taliban.
Canada's Foreign Affairs Minister Lawrence Cannon told reporters on Tuesday that the Taliban has an important role to play in laying the foundations of a new Afghanistan. "We encourage a reconciliation process that is inclusive of all Afghans, no matter their ethnicity," he said.
Now cup your hand to your ear and listen for the caterwauling of the uber patriots here on the home front decrying the minister's capitulation to the enemy. Hmm. Oddly quiet. Could this minster really represent the government that so cravenly branded NDP leader Jack Layton "Taliban Jack" four years ago for suggesting exactly the same thing?
Layton earned the epithet when he suggested that after a century of trying to bomb the region into submission a better strategy might be to open up a line of communication. In another manifestation of their binary perspective on issues, the Conservatives took this to mean that Jack was a big fan of the Taliban and their horsewhipping of women.
"Is it next going to be tea with Osama Bin Laden?" asked Peter MacKay. A Globe and Mail columnist indignantly wrote "Would he pull out the chairs for their representatives? Would he pour tea for those who have killed 23 Canadian soldiers this year?"
Submitted by alan smithee on July 22, 2010 - 10:43pm.
Can anyone post the poll numbers in Quebec?
Last I heard in late May it was BQ - 45%
Libs -22%
Cons - 11%
This was according to CTV Montreal which,for the past 6 years,has shown they're in favour of the Cons.
I'd love the real #'s IF they exist.
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Submitted by NorthReport on July 22, 2010 - 10:46pm.
This is indeed a very sad day for Canada. How could we have lost our compassion so quickly!
My concern here is that this not become a vote-getter for Harper.
The right can sometimes be effective politically taking a complex (more than one sentence ) issue and turn it into a simplistic "hiring should be based on merit" slogan which everyone knows is BS.
At least the opposition NDP is opposed to these changes.
Quote:
Ottawa orders affirmative-action overhaul
New Democrat MP Pat Martin called the move a "full-frontal attack on affirmative action."
Visible minorities, including aboriginals, have long been underrepresented in the public service.
The NDP are fortunate indeed to have such a class act as exhibited by their leader. The NDP's political fortunes could sustantially improve in the next election.
Jack is certainly head and shoulders above the bozos who lead the other federal parties. Unfortunately, Canadians don't tend to reward 'class acts' at the ballot box (viz. Tommy Douglas, Robert Stanfield).
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Submitted by NorthReport on July 22, 2010 - 11:21pm.
The favourable NDP leadership is only one of several issues that voters will be reflecting on the next time we go to the polls.
Harper's right wing meanness/ruthlessness, and the Liberals lack of fulfilling the Official Opposition's role are additional ones.
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Submitted by bouchecl on July 22, 2010 - 11:26pm.
alan smithee wrote:
Can anyone post the poll numbers in Quebec?
Check http://threehundredeight.com for the most recent polls and projections. The poll you mention is slightly high for the Bloc (they averaged 40.6% in June) and slightly low for the Cons (they get 15% on average), Ignatieff and the Liberals, still poll at Dion levels (slightly above 20%). As for the NDP, they are stable at around 12-13%.
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Submitted by alan smithee on July 22, 2010 - 11:51pm.
Thanks bouchecl..I'm still delighted to see that the Cons are not much ahead of the NDP(a party with one Quebec seat-Thomas Mulcair)even if they are slightly higher in the polls than what I had heard.
I appreciate the link.
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Submitted by Boom Boom on July 23, 2010 - 12:03am.
Another federal Conservative government is as good a reason as any for Quebec to go its own way IMHO. I'm really getting sick of Harper and his neocon thugs, and the Libs aren't much better. I wonder what an independent Quebec would look like. Guess I'll have to read the BQ and PQ charters or whatever they go by.
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Submitted by NorthReport on July 23, 2010 - 12:48pm.
Quote:
Every month, La Presse publishes a CROP poll on provincial and federal voting intention in Quebec. It is regarded as the authoritative political poll in Quebec because of the size of the sample, its regional and demographic breakouts, and the enviable track record of the CROP brand. Only Léger Marketing is even in the same league.
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Submitted by remind on July 23, 2010 - 11:54am.
So Jay Hill is gone, finally.....
PG Peace River riding has done nothing but gone downhill since he represented it...
He, I bet like Lekstrom is feeling the brunt of the HST fall out plus other incidentals.
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Submitted by edmundoconnor on July 23, 2010 - 12:32pm.
NorthReport wrote:
EKOS of the Week: The Others are coming! The Others are coming! (To Saskitoba, that is.)
I'm not positive, but I'm fairly sure this is the first time that The Others have managed to oust a listed party -- just two weeks after they quite literally fell off the map. You wanna talk momentum? It's all about The Others in Saskitoba. Oh, and in slightly less whimsical news, the NDP seems to have recovered from its prairie malaise, and is now within ten points of the Conservatives, and the Liberals -- well, they're still ahead of The Others, which is more than you can say for the Greens.
I have to wonder how many respondents to the survey were from Saskatoon-Humboldt. Given that Jim Pankiw (who has issues by the bucketload) is running as an independent in that riding, I think maybe, just maybe, that partly explains the high 'others' rating. I certainly can't think of any other parties or candidates who would fit the bill.
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Submitted by mybabble on July 23, 2010 - 12:52pm.
Its not Sask who will help decide the fate of the Conservatives but BC and Toronto and I think it is just such excitiing news as I predicted the NDP would be the next offical opposition and I got a feeling it soon could very well be a reality. Does that leave the Conservatives in the drivers seat? I certainly hope not.
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Submitted by mybabble on July 23, 2010 - 1:09pm.
Question of the day? Does rope in BC and Toronto have a HST tax attached to it? You know the rope that the Conservatives hung themselves with as Harper sets out to put Canadians in their place with deficit spending=what a contradiction as cities will find themselves on the short end of the equation as homelessness and poverty continue to climb while Liberals and Conservatives knock heads on issues that don't lead anywhere. Harper asks UN for open arms for Canada when it comes to human rights and with BC just yesterday Authorities showing its true colors as officer takes societies afflicted and knocks them to the ground like the poor women wasn't even human is an everyday occurence in East side Vancouver, Canada. Can't see it happening Harper.
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Submitted by ottawaobserver on July 23, 2010 - 3:29pm.
Yes, it's interesting that we haven't seen a CROP poll for awhile, but they may be timing it for after Ignatieff's bus tour to see if that had any effect. Although, what the heck were they doing wasting their time in the Beauce (Max Bernier's seat)?
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Submitted by alan smithee on July 23, 2010 - 4:40pm.
Boom Boom wrote:
Another federal Conservative government is as good a reason as any for Quebec to go its own way IMHO. I'm really getting sick of Harper and his neocon thugs, and the Libs aren't much better. I wonder what an independent Quebec would look like. Guess I'll have to read the BQ and PQ charters or whatever they go by.
It all depends who you ask...Friends of mine who are sovereignists maintain that Quebec cannot be free to take progressive initiatives as part of Canada.
They have a real inclusive and progressive vision of a sovereign Quebec,much like alot of Quebec artists.
Then you have the nationalist xenophobes that offer no ideas beyond a ethnically cleaned pur laine French country.
Unfortunately,the BQ and PQ do not elaborate as to what a sovereign Quebec would be beyond the language issue.
This is why I have voted UFP and Quebec Solidaire in the last 2 elections and will continue to do so..They have a full and comprehensive platform and vision for what a sovereign Quebec would be.
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Submitted by ottawaobserver on July 23, 2010 - 7:39pm.
André Pratte has written a withering editorial for La Presse, calling the Harper government "one of the most incompetent and harmful governments this country has ever known", and urging mutiny by his cabinet ministers.
Here's a partial translation by Macleans.ca's Philippe Gohier.
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Submitted by alan smithee on July 23, 2010 - 7:56pm.
Thanks ottawaobserver...I never read La Presse because it's a right wing snot rag...So the fact that this was published by La Presse is really sweet.
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Submitted by KenS on July 23, 2010 - 8:17pm.
ottawaobserver wrote:
Although, what the heck were they [Iggy Express] doing wasting their time in the Beauce (Max Bernier's seat)?
Before they went, when I saw it on the schedule, I wondered if they had some stunt in mind. Something they would do there to get some quebec media attention. But I guess not.
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Submitted by bekayne on July 23, 2010 - 9:37pm.
NorthReport wrote:
Not a team player, the team being Team Harper, is the reason Greg is gone.
Submitted by Boom Boom on July 23, 2010 - 10:49pm.
alan smithee wrote:
This is why I have voted UFP and Quebec Solidaire in the last 2 elections and will continue to do so..They have a full and comprehensive platform and vision for what a sovereign Quebec would be.
Neither party runs candidates here I think. Guess I'll vote NDP again, as the BQ guy here is pretty useless.
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Submitted by edmundoconnor on July 24, 2010 - 9:17am.
ottawaobserver wrote:
André Pratte has written a withering editorial for La Presse, calling the Harper government "one of the most incompetent and harmful governments this country has ever known", and urging mutiny by his cabinet ministers.
Here's a partial translation by Macleans.ca's Philippe Gohier.
If he thinks school boards are run more seriously than the Tories run Canada, then he clearly has never been to a TDSB board meeting.
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Submitted by jrootham on July 24, 2010 - 10:48am.
The scary part is, he possibly has.
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Submitted by edmundoconnor on July 24, 2010 - 1:36pm.
Yikes.
If the likes of TDSB are held as paragons of POGG (especially GG), then we're in bigger trouble than we thought.
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Submitted by NorthReport on July 24, 2010 - 6:00pm.
It gives me no joy to post this analysis.
One again kudos to Paul Wells, a very rare political pundit in Canada, who actually does scientific research by studying previous political results and trends before pontificating.
And as well, prior to the Conservatives actually calling an election, Harper will be doing everything possible to ramp up the Conservative polling numbers at the beginning of the election campaign.
We could be in a scary, very, very close to a Harper majority situation.
If a Harper majority is to be averted, the NDP has to have a major kick start to their campaign
Party / Last Election / Latest Nanos Poll* / Initial Seat Forecast / HECS Seat Forecast**
*My Federal Seat Projections based on Nanos Research, Canada's most accurate, and equally as important, a non-affiliated pollster.
** My Federal Seat Projections based on Nanos Research Historical Election Campaign Shifts
*** 2 Independents
**** 1 Independent
Quote:
UPDATE, Sunday: Many commentators say three data points (2004, 2006, 2008) is a flimsy data set. Quite true. Here are two more. The 13th link from the bottom ("Update on the Federal Political Landscape") from a list of old Ekos polls shows you an Ekos/Torstar poll from 2002; like Nanos, Ekos gives a longish time series of its party-preference polling. What kind of jumps out is that the two lowest troughs in Liberal support since the late 1990s are the two moments when Canadians actually voted: the 1997 election and the 2000 election. If anything, the combined swing illustrated by Liberal declines and PC/Reform/Alliance gains is more than 10 points.
So that's five federal elections in a row, 1997 to 2008, where the trend is for the Liberals to bottom out and the (assorted conservative, then Conservative Party) opponent to have better results than recent polls had indicated. Note that this isn't about "governments" dipping while "oppositions" gain: conservative parties posted writ-period gains against the Liberals without regard to which of them was in power.
Submitted by alan smithee on July 24, 2010 - 6:16pm.
It looks pretty grim..But without Quebec,Harper will not win a majority..And thankfully,with the exception of the regions around Quebec City,the Cons do not have much of any support out here.
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Submitted by NorthReport on July 24, 2010 - 6:59pm.
Thanks for your response Alan, however Quebeckers are some of Canada's most astute voters who usually like to side with a winner, so they are not left out of the perks that come with government. The Cons only got 10 seats in Quebec last time, and even it that was cut in half, it looks like Harper could pick that up and more in Ontario alone.
Ontario
Party / 2008 GE / Latest Nanos Poll / Forecast / HECS Seat Forecast
Unfortunately, Harper could be a lot closer to that elusive majority than some political observers realize.
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Submitted by alan smithee on July 24, 2010 - 7:25pm.
I'd be surprised if Harper got more than 10 seats in Quebec..Voters may be astute but they're not stupid..There is just too much of a division of ideology.
Even superstar politician Lucien Bouchard couldn't govern the province as he wanted to...Also,the Quebec electorate made a loud statement to how much they support the neocon agenda last election when the ADQ went from opposition to a measley 4 seats which under the rules of the National Assembley,the ADQ is not a recognized party in the NA..(I believe you need 10 seats to be recognized)..And the election before that,Quebeckers were not enthusiastic about the right leaning Andre Boisclair and that's the election where the PQ won the fewest seats since their inception...The ADQ,by default,won the most seats they ever had in the NA--again,thanks to the regions.
But Ontario could deliver the fatal blow to Canadian democracy as that province has become more and more in support of the Cons since the last election.
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Submitted by NorthReport on July 24, 2010 - 8:02pm.
Alan
Here is the latest Nanos Research's (Canada's most accurate pollster) polling in Quebec, however to get the most precise assessment of the political mood in Quebec, it's usually essential to see the CROP & Leger Marketing polling data.
Quebec
Party / 2008 Election / Latest Nanos Poll / Change
Bloc / 38.1%, 49 seats / 38.6% / Up 0.05%
Libs / 23.8%, 14 seats / 24.6% / Up 0.08%
Cons / 21.7%, 10 seats / 19.3% / Down 2.4%
NPD / 12.2%, 1 seat / 13.8% / Up 1.6%
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Submitted by alan smithee on July 24, 2010 - 7:40pm.
alan smithee wrote:
I'd be surprised if Harper got more than 10 seats in Quebec..Voters may be astute but they're not stupid..There is just too much of a division of ideology.
OK...10 seats and down 2.4%...And this translates into the Quebec electorate miraculously voting majority Conservative in the next election exactly how?
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Submitted by NorthReport on July 24, 2010 - 10:12pm.
By-the-way the latest (June 14, 2010) Leger Marketing poll shows the NPD with 15%, now basically tied with the Cons in Quebec.
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Submitted by bouchecl on July 24, 2010 - 9:51pm.
I wouldn't worry too much about the Cons in Quebec right now. Check the last three or four Léger polls (they're basically the only ones with decent Quebec samples, not the ±6% MoE of Nanos, with its measly 200ish samples). The Cons have polled consistently at 16-17% levels for the last six months. They're consistently on the wrong side of every issue and their right-wing colleagues of the ADQ are in disarray at the National Assembly after the disastrous resignation of Mario Dumont and the awful leadership contest.
Add to that the generalized dissatisfaction with both Harper's and Charest's governments (and some equate the two, reminding people of the Premier's former allegiances), the current zeitgeist doesn't lean towards conservative gains in Quebec.
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Submitted by NorthReport on July 24, 2010 - 11:06pm.
This must be the latest AR poll, dated July 12th, 2010
Jack usually polls ahead of the NDP.
Perhaps though, the NDP needs to tweek Layton's image, by making him appear a bit more decisive, as that appears is to be working for Harper.
Harper not most popular politician, but Canadians want him as PM
IGNATIEFF REMAINS HIGHLY UNPOPULAR. LAYTON IS PRAISED, BUT NOT CHOSEN BY MANY TO FACE TOUGH CHALLENGES.
Cons - 36%
Libs - 27%
NDP - 20% Sweet!
Bloc - 10%
The NDP's Jack Layton, like his two main rivals, is seen as an intelligent politician, but is clearly regarded as friendly, with people using words such as down to earth, compassionate and honest to describe him. It is important to note that the good showing for the NDP in British Columbia-where Layton took part in a campaign against the unpopular harmonized sales tax (HST) last month-could become a problem for the Conservatives in the next federal election. The NDP finished in second place in 11 of the 22 federal ridings that the Tories currently hold in BC.
Nanos Research / Jun 3/10 / 36% / 21% / 29% / 09% / 15% Not too shabby!
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Submitted by NorthReport on July 24, 2010 - 11:14pm.
Well said.
Jean unprepared for Harper's bullying
In the Fall of 2008, as a Prime Minister facing certain defeat of his government at the hands of all three opposition parties, Harper knew what exactly he could get away with. He demanded, within a few weeks of reconvening the House, that Jean grant his government a constitutionally questionable prorogation.
Following a two-hour meeting between Harper and herself, Jean granted him a three-month recess that allowed Harper to redo his ridiculous budget, one that ignored completely the recession. As well, Harper took the time to complete his task of destroying the Liberal-NDP coalition by tarring Michael Ignatieff and Jack Layton with being propped up by the dreaded separatists, the same ones that Harper had used to defeat the Martin government in 2005.
Fearing that Harper would call an election and use populist majoritarian democracy to attack both her as well as her office, Jean, after consulting a small number of constitutional specialists, decided to take the line of least resistance. Reluctantly, she granted Harper his demand for prorogation and in so doing severely weakened her credibility as well as that of her office.
Indeed, Harper's bullying tactics paid off in spades. He had no problem in getting a second questionable prorogation this past winter, and this time, he did so by telephone.
And, no, PM Harper will not pick a new G-G who will stand up to him. Why? Because Harper is, and will remain, in a minority government situation. He will probably have to ask for another prorogation or an election in order to avoid, yet again, defeat in the House.
The actual results are not contained in the story linked to above, but I guess we'll probably see them by the end of the day. Gregg says it's not the census issue per se. But he's said before that it feeds into a general dis-ease with Stephen Harper's style of governing, building on prorogation and everything else.
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Submitted by ottawaobserver on July 27, 2010 - 1:02pm.
NR, could you possibly fix your close-quote problem in post #9, as it's affecting the rest of the thread. ty
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Submitted by ottawaobserver on July 27, 2010 - 3:39pm.
OK, the next version of the story contained a few more numbers:
They are interpreting it as a "pox on all your houses" poll. Also, women are turning away from the Conservatives again (apparently we don't like risk). And not only is the NDP one point from the lead in BC, apparently it's gaining on the Conservatives in the prairies (this means seats in both cases, I would imagine). The Greens are showing an uncharacteristic bump in Quebec, but it appears to be coming at the expense of the Liberals.
Anyways, the full details are at this link (PDF). Lost the Internet for awhile, so that's why this post got delayed.
ETA: I found the last release[71], and added/corrected the changes from last month.
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Submitted by Uncle John on July 27, 2010 - 6:30pm.
It is astounding that this government maintains a lead while sitting in office.
If there is a 10-point split in favour of the Conservatives in an election, that means the Liberals are finished.
Perhaps Conservatives don't want the rest of the electorate to be afraid of a Con majority so they don't talk to pollsters.
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Submitted by Stockholm on July 27, 2010 - 7:55pm.
What's astounding about it??? THere has always been about 30-35 percent of Canadians who support rightwing parties. This is nothing new and quite frankly issues like the census are damaging but still flesh wounds in the overall scheme of things. The Liberals under Chretien did worse things and won three majority governments in a row.
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Submitted by thorin_bane on July 28, 2010 - 12:05am.
Yeah but stock they did things that harmed the left, so that is nothing at all. The cons are even attacking their own. Sadly these people will still vote and won't change where they park. There isn't a right enough party for them to go to.
I think we should start the wild rose party across the country to vote split the right. Don't put much effort but enough to draw off say 5% of their vote. We could call it the green(why doesn't the strike out work?) brown party to represent brown shirts that want to run our lives while claiming to not want government.
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Submitted by alan smithee on July 28, 2010 - 12:42am.
Thorin...You reminded me of Ronald Reagen's son Michael when he responded to a statement made by his other son,Ron about how he didn't believe Ronnie would support the Tea Baggers.
Michael said , 'My father championed the plight of the 'little guy' and believed government had no place in people's personal life'...When I heard that,I nearly fell out of my chair.
But I guess it's true...Conservatives believe government has no place in the personal lives of private citizens unless it's a woman's uterus,your bedroom,your living room,your lungs,your body etc..etc...
And you're also completely correct..Contrary to the self-righteousness of the right,it is THEY who are the brown shirts.
In fact,before Obama became President,I had absolutely no idea that the Nazis were humanitarians..The right wing nuts and Tea Baggers of The South are pretty much what we have in Parliament .
These people believe that empathy,compassion,social justice,health care,civil liberties and unemployment insurance equates Nazism.
These people belong locked up in a rubber room...Despicable 'human' beings.
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Submitted by Stockholm on July 28, 2010 - 11:47am.
thorin_bane wrote:
Yeah but stock they did things that harmed the left, so that is nothing at all. The cons are even attacking their own. Sadly these people will still vote and won't change where they park. There isn't a right enough party for them to go to.
The Conservatives took 38% of the vote in the last election. This poll has them at 31% - that is a very steep decline.
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Submitted by thorin_bane on July 28, 2010 - 12:03pm.
Yeah but I still peg them around 35 Eday. I don't see Iggy impressing on the campaign trail. People may let this slide down the memory hole anyway. 31 would be great I would be happy with 30,29,24 10,7 on Eday.
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Submitted by Boom Boom on July 28, 2010 - 12:06pm.
thorin_bane wrote:
...I would be happy with 30,29,24 10,7 on Eday.
I get what you're saying, but that still gives the Cons a de facto majority with the help of the Liberals, unless Iggy can be convinced to work with the NDP (unlikely).
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Submitted by Boom Boom on July 28, 2010 - 12:26pm.
If anyone has suggestions on defeating the Conservative/Liberal Coalition, let us know, eh!
ETA: I think this needs a thread of its own.
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Submitted by Uncle John on July 28, 2010 - 4:22pm.
A 30-29-24-10-7 etc. might throw off some unpredictable results.
I remember in 1990 the NDP got very efficient at getting seats in Ontario once their popular vote hit a certain level...
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Submitted by thorin_bane on July 28, 2010 - 4:40pm.
I would not be surprised at how that could turn out. A lot of western and urban seats could be up for grabs in that kind of scenario. Who knows. 6% higher for the NDP and 8% lower for the cons(a direct flip of 14 % would change everything in the west) with the libs nearly static . The NDP might even get close to the seats their share of the vote dictates. Back in 93 PCs got leveled to 2 seats with 15% of the votes, Even the NDP did better with something like 8% of the vote.
That is however my most optimistic guess. ceilings and floors have limits. So for every vote the NDP can take from the libs their would be some coming from the cons to libs in eastern canada. Thats why I can't see the libs at 24% unless the cons are at 35% which would help the NDP but might give the cons a majority with that kind of split.
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Submitted by Uncle John on July 28, 2010 - 4:58pm.
The Tory vote will get out, and so will the NDP vote. Perhaps many Liberals will simply refuse to vote. It might explain the decl;ining overall turnouts...
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Submitted by NorthReport on July 28, 2010 - 8:14pm.
NorthReport wrote:
Polling Company / Date / Cons / NDP / Libs / Bloc / Con-NDP Gap
G. Election / Oct 14, 2008 / 38% / 18% / 26% / 10% / 20%
Nanos Research / Jun 3/10 / 36% / 21% / 29% / 09% / 15% Not too shabby!
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Submitted by thorin_bane on July 29, 2010 - 4:06am.
If the NDP crack 22% in ontario without stealing too much lib support(or rather however it slides from one party to another) we could see a very interesting election. I don't know about official opposition but 50 for the bloc, 50-60 for the NDP(at those numbers) and the libs hangingin in there with 90 or so seats would be interesting as can be. If the cons slide to 100 seats or so It would be the most interesting parliament in a long time. the two big one very close in seats and us tied with the bloc. Heck give the greens a seat or two as long as it isn't EMay.
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Submitted by Uncle John on July 29, 2010 - 8:55am.
If the Cons go down to 100 the Cons will be calling for Harper's head. If the Liberals don't beat the Cons, Libs will be calling for Ignatieff's head. If the NDP beats their record, few will be calling for Layton's head...
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Submitted by KenS on July 29, 2010 - 9:16am.
The Conservatives are not going down anywhere close to 100. But they wont be getting a majority either. If they are out as govt- most likely in my books- then Harper is gone for sure- even if he hasnt taken a personal beating. And he may be looking for an exit even if they manage somehow to exploit the Liberals in a manner that saves them in government.
Iggy is gone unless the Libs do fantastically, which is extremely unlikely.
Layton goes when he chooses, even if the results are fairly dissapointing.
But all of this is happening in the distant future. Or not, since given a few months those deeper dynamics could change. But more likely, the more the details change the more the fundamentals dont. Admittedy, I never thought a Fall election was likely... just a possibility. But I think whatever chance of that there was, is rapidly evaporating.
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Submitted by Sean in Ottawa on July 29, 2010 - 9:47am.
I certainly agree that there are a number of potential game-changers and I would not limit them in the way you have.
I do believe the Conservatives and the Liberals are both very fragile with a large number of parked and not very enthusiastic supporters. As much as the numbers of those voting for each party may be critical, those who stay home may also. I beleive the Cons have already figured this out and are trying to find issues that will bring out their base which may tell pollsters they are Conservative, lacking other options, but may not come out to vote.
So as I believe there is a lot more at play than we realize, I think there is potential for the Cons to either fall down to 100 seats or so-- especially as a large number of seats were won by small margins. This is not all good for the Liberals who could in spite of themselves surprise by simply winning seats by default as people vote against what could become a wounded government. On the other hand, the Liberals also have tepid support and a couple campaign mistakes and they could actually lose seats from the low position they are already in, perhaps, at the greatest extreme allowing a Conservative majority. Somebody has to win the seats; the NDP and other parties are only contenders in so many seats.
I have to agree with most pundits who believe that the Cons will remain ahead of the Liberals and that they will remain short of a majority. However, the national result is only an accumulation of a number of regional races. There are some terrible dynamics at play in the current first-past-the post configuration.
As well, the Greens, already faced with serious internal problems may also be squeezed by supporters concerned about the FPTP potential for creating power from small numbers of well placed votes. The extreme anti-environmental stance of this government has to a great degree placed a different context on the differences between opposition parties on the environment as they all appear very distant from the government. In that sense Green voters may find themselves simply trying to defeat Conservatives rather than attempting to elect Greens.I am not sure how significant this could be as the Greens never had that much weight to throw around but combined with other dynamics, this could add up to something.
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Submitted by alan smithee on July 29, 2010 - 2:02pm.
Front page of Le Journal de Montreal today...Leger and Leger marketing poll reveals Quebeckers find Harper confident but a hypocrit..lol
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Submitted by Uncle John on July 29, 2010 - 3:04pm.
Hypocrisy is a necessary part of English-speaking life.
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Submitted by Michael Moriarity on July 29, 2010 - 6:33pm.
Uncle John wrote:
Hypocrisy is a necessary part of English-speaking life.
A very curious statement, Uncle J. Does this apply everywhere in the world, or only in Canada? And exactly how does language influence the character trait we call hyprocrisy? Curious minds want to know.
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Submitted by NorthReport on July 29, 2010 - 8:00pm.
Les Québécois perçoivent Harper comme confiant et hypocrite
ENCART:: Le sondage en ligne réalisé par Léger Marketing indique que 56 % des Canadiens interrogés croient que le premier ministre Harper est déterminé, 55% pensent qu'il est confiant tandis que seulement 28% croient que le chef libéral Michael Ignatieff est déterminé et confiant.
Les Québécois sont un peu moins emballés, puisque 49 % estiment que Stephen Harper est déterminé et 45 % trouvent qu'il est confiant, alors que 26 % considèrent Michael Ignatieff comme un homme déterminé et 23 % perçoivent qu'il est confiant.
«Le classement de Michael Ignatieff est très bas dans presque tous les éléments de comparaison», résume le vice-président de Léger Marketing, David Scholz. Il estime que les Canadiens n'en savent toujours pas beaucoup plus sur le chef libéral, 20 mois après son élection à la tête du parti. «Nous ne savons pas s'il est déterminé ou confiant, nous ne savons pas ce qu'il peut faire», résume M. Scholz.
Submitted by NorthReport on July 29, 2010 - 9:33pm.
A good article in the mainstream press about polling, although I'm bothered with Melchers comments about, or perhaps concerned about his relationship with, his mother, but that's another topic.
Why you can trust the census, but not polls
"Opinion polls are generally trash," Ron Melchers, a statistician at the University of Ottawa says. Response rates on private surveys are low and falling. It's not uncommon for four out of five people to refuse to answer. Or more. That creates huge opportunities for bias to creep in. "My aged mother will answer any survey she's asked to answer. She's isolated, she's alone, she's grumpy and irritable, and she hasn't got all of her marbles. These are the people who are most likely to respond to a lot of these polling surveys," says Melchers.
StatsCan conducts voluntary surveys but it uses the census data to "weight" the results -- that is, to adjust it and correct for bias. Private pollsters generally don't or can't do that. And soon, thanks to the government's decision on the census long form, neither will StatsCan.
All of this means that getting an accurate picture of reality -- as represented by numbers -- can be a lot harder than most people realize. Two conclusions follow.
One, we should be much more skeptical about the numbers that are used so casually in public discourse. "Often people using numbers have no idea where those numbers come from," Melchers says.
The other is that the census is unique. And uniquely valuable.
Or at least it was until Stephen Harper came along.
Submitted by NorthReport on July 29, 2010 - 10:16pm.
This is rich - talk about being out of touch with the average person/family in Canada.
Educating Michael Ignatieff
Attending one of the top private boarding schools in the country, Upper Canada College, is hardly what comes to mind when one thinks of a "publicly-funded education."
Submitted by Uncle John on July 29, 2010 - 10:55pm.
English speaking as in the English-speaking world. everywhere English is spoken.
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Submitted by Sean in Ottawa on July 30, 2010 - 12:18am.
NorthReport wrote:
A good article in the mainstream press about polling, although I'm bothered with Melchers comments about, or perhaps concerned about his relationship with, his mother, but that's another topic.
Why you can trust the census, but not polls
"Opinion polls are generally trash," Ron Melchers, a statistician at the University of Ottawa says. Response rates on private surveys are low and falling. It's not uncommon for four out of five people to refuse to answer. Or more. That creates huge opportunities for bias to creep in. "My aged mother will answer any survey she's asked to answer. She's isolated, she's alone, she's grumpy and irritable, and she hasn't got all of her marbles. These are the people who are most likely to respond to a lot of these polling surveys," says Melchers.
StatsCan conducts voluntary surveys but it uses the census data to "weight" the results -- that is, to adjust it and correct for bias. Private pollsters generally don't or can't do that. And soon, thanks to the government's decision on the census long form, neither will StatsCan.
All of this means that getting an accurate picture of reality -- as represented by numbers -- can be a lot harder than most people realize. Two conclusions follow.
One, we should be much more skeptical about the numbers that are used so casually in public discourse. "Often people using numbers have no idea where those numbers come from," Melchers says.
The other is that the census is unique. And uniquely valuable.
Or at least it was until Stephen Harper came along.
First private polls do weight their results-- all of them do.
The key point is they use census data to do so. This is the reason at the end of the poll they ask census like questions- age, gender, education, and they have location. What they do is call enough people till they have a representative sample-- It is true the older women fill up first and the 18-24 men last. The census tells them how many to accept of each to create the representative number and then they can look at whatever the survey was asking. If you lack the demographic information you cannot weight the sample and then it can be biased.
Uncommon for 4 out of five to answer he says-- wrong again. 4 out of five he implies is a very poor response rate. In fact polls are way below that and have been for years. Depending on the topic over 90% refuse and if you count people who don't even pick up as refusals it is much higher. But that is not new.
anyway the writer clearly knows very little about polling even if he is an expert on stats. Polling is different and there is no reason to assume a person who knows stats knows polling. However, generally those who know polling also do know stats.
The greater issue with polling may in fact be language-- there are large numbers of people who do not speak the predominant language and pollsters can't get their opinions. They assume they are like the people they can talk to but that is not always the case. I agree with the general conclusion but this guy does not appear to know much about polling.
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Submitted by Sean in Ottawa on July 30, 2010 - 12:21am.
Uncle John wrote:
Hypocrisy is a necessary part of English-speaking life.
I would not limit it to one language group -- not only because it is offensive to say that but because it is ridiculous.
Certainly it is a common human trait.
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Submitted by NorthReport on July 31, 2010 - 11:52pm.
Interesting analysis by the Georgia Straight pundit Charlie Smith
Michael Ignatieff dragged down by provincial Liberal parties' fortunes
Submitted by NorthReport on August 1, 2010 - 4:16pm.
Basically I agree with Melchers.
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Submitted by daevid39 on August 3, 2010 - 1:47pm.
With the percentage of barely 40% eligible voters showing up at the polls,we are all doomed to shitty governments...leftist voters are very apathetic where right wing voters always turn up...
Harperites ALWAYS show up at the election polls....
(image deleted by moderator)
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Submitted by Uncle John on August 3, 2010 - 2:23pm.
Is that Zippy the Pinhead?
I remember him!
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Submitted by NorthReport on August 3, 2010 - 3:48pm.
Submitted by alan smithee on August 3, 2010 - 4:39pm.
I'm getting a kick out of all the negative press the Reform Party has been getting lately...I hope this means that those who traditionally sit on the fence will actually get off their asses,show up at the booths next election and turf these maniacs out of control of (as it turns out) ALL our institutions.
The only 'institution' this Reform Party/Mike Harris Tories coalition should be a part of is a mental institution.
OK,sorry..I got that out of my system and now I feel better.
I'm happy to read all the negative press the Cons have been getting lately...I'll leave it as that.
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Submitted by alan smithee on August 3, 2010 - 5:17pm.
BTW...I wonder if Justice Minister Nicholson got the memo that the majority of Canadians and NOT their constituency who are not but a minority fringe group,were in favour of the decriminalization of marijuana OR that the Senate committee that recommended cannabis be LEGALIZED in 2003 was presided by Progressive Conservative senator Pierre-Claude Nolin and when Canadians answer polls which show they are concerned with crime,the majority of them are not locking up their doors and hiding in fear because someone might be smoking a spliff near by.
Why do you think they are spending over $2 billion on new prisons when Canada's crime rate has been declining steadily year after year for the last 15 years
An out of touch government clearly at work for a fringe group which makes up their constituency.
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Submitted by oldgoat on August 3, 2010 - 5:22pm.
daevid39, your post #97 is offensive and contrary to policy. I really hope I don't have to explain why. Please find some non offensive way to make your point. Actually, just lose the picture. I'll check back and remove it myself if you don't see this.
ETA: actually, looking at the post count I'll just remove the picture and close for length.
Jay Hill's exit spurs election speculation
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/jay-hills-e...
Latest Nanos Poll: May 3, 2010 - Jun 3, 2010
C - 36%
L - 29%
N - 21% , up 5%
B - 9%
When was this released? The date on their website is May3-June 3-- a month and a half old.
Very nice numbers -- I wonder how long we will wait for regionals.
Over such a long period of time I wonder how the poll could even have a meaning though.
Also I wonder why the Cons would want an election. Certainly there is no prospect of a majority with any numbers we have seen in more than a year.
Are the Liberals doing that badly financially that the Cons can rely on that advantage alone?
Very impressive number for the NDP. Is it time to get excited yet?
No.
No and sean raises a good point. Why did these numbers take so long to get out?
“It was always my intent that, whenever I decided that the passion for partisan politics was on the wane, that it would be time to exit,” Mr. Hill told Moose radio, his local station, on Wednesday.
If that just doesn't speak to their motto. Partisan politics above everything else. Maybe he is having problems with Herr Harpers plans.
According to the Canadian Taxpayers Federation, Mr. Hills pension upon retirement will amount to $110,269 per year.
Oh that pension all the reformers said they would never take. I guess earning more than double what real working people get for a hard days work while sitting on ones ass can change your mind in a hurry, Does he get to double dip as well. Or does he have to wait till he is 65 like the rest of us slobs.
The pension is just one of many issues that former Reformers threw under the bus. I guess that when they joined a new party they got a do-over.
The pension is just one of many issues that former Reformers threw under the bus. I guess that when they joined a new party they got a do-over.
I don't think it's even a case of Reformers taking over the Progressive Conservatives, because neither really exists anymore. The only thing running that government is some wierd mutant power-hungry beast that lives in the PMO's office.
The latest Nanos (Canada's most accurate pollster) Poll, taken May 3 to June 3, 2010, before the probably useless summer polling, shows the NDP up 5%, and within 8% of the Official Opposition. With the weakness being exhibited by Ignatieff's leadership, there probably has never been a better opportunity for Layton to capitalize on the Liberal Party's deteriorating situation. The NDP elected 37 MPs with 18% of the vote in the last election, so with 21% of the vote the NDP could receive 40-50 seats. And with 25% of the vote the NDP could receive how many seats? Any ideas?
Paul Wells gets it right which Doug referred to in the Alf Apps: meet Jim Harris thread started by OO.
And Wells has added an update to what he originally posted.
Pre-election peaks and doldrums, or, a lesson for Alf (UPDATED
As a rule of thumb, the Harper-era Conservative writ-period bounce seems to be about five percentage points or a little more. The Liberal writ-period decline is comparable. Which means if the two parties are tied in voter support on the day a campaign begins, the Liberals should, as a rule of thumb, expect to be 10 points behind when people actually vote. Right now the two parties are not tied.
Of course history isn't fate. There will be elections where the Conservatives don't benefit from a 10-point swing during the writ period. But if you're writing an 18-page memo about polls sometime soon you might want to mention this very robust trend.
UPDATE, Sunday: Many commentators say three data points (2004, 2006, 2008) is a flimsy data set. Quite true. Here are two more. The 13th link from the bottom. ("Update on the Federal Political Landscape") from a list of old Ekos polls shows you an Ekos/Torstar poll from 2002; like Nanos, Ekos gives a longish time series of its party-preference polling. What kind of jumps out is that the two lowest troughs in Liberal support since the late 1990s are the two moments when Canadians actually voted: the 1997 election and the 2000 election. If anything, the combined swing illustrated by Liberal declines and PC/Reform/Alliance gains is more than 10 points.
So that's five federal elections in a row, 1997 to 2008, where the trend is for the Liberals to bottom out and the (assorted conservative, then Conservative Party) opponent to have better results than recent polls had indicated. Note that this isn't about "governments" dipping while "oppositions" gain: conservative parties posted writ-period gains against the Liberals without regard to which of them was in power.
I'm told this pattern goes back decades. I'm looking for confirmation.
http://www2.macleans.ca/2010/07/17/pre-election-peaks-and-doldrums-or-a-lesson-for-alf/ [10]
The Nanos Reasearch Regional Polling results have been on the the Nanos Research website for some time.
OO posted them here on July 6, 2010.
Conservatives lead by six points, NDP up
http://www.nanosresearch.com/library/polls/POLNAT-W10-T424E.pdf
North Report -- you want to know how many seats the NDP would get with 25%-- well 27% gets you 77 apparently...
At least the Liberals can now calculate how many seats you get with 18% as well...
Good one or is that two Sean.
In the last election in 2008:
With 38% of the vote the Cons got 46% of the seats and are overrepresented in the HoC
With 26% of the vote the Libs got 25% of the seats and got basically what they deserved in the HoC
With 18% of the vote the NDP got 12% of the seats and are underrepresented in the HoC
With 10% of the vote the Bloc got 16% of the seats and are overrepresented in the HoC
I hate to add but you can put the greens in there with 5%(or so) and have never been represented. Fully half the support of the bloc with NO representation. I may not agree with the greens but that seems at odds with any actual democracy. Take 10 seats away from harper and give them to the greens and a further 10 from each the cons and bloc and give them to the NDP...really different looking HoC
PR(other than preferential voting) could finally change the landscape(somewhat ) in this country. 65% of canadians believe we need it. The problem is when its actual voting time, most don't go out(More than any party gets support). The powers that be put maximum effort to stiffle it, and we can't agree on a good system. Instead we vote down even something that would be fairer, just because its not being exactly what we want.
Hey I don't like STV but would take it over FPTP or preferential.
Open list MMP please and soon.
It's probably unkind to point this out, but the week that Michael Ignatieff went on tour, the NDP went up by 4 points.
Latest EKOS: n=977, July 14-20, MoE=3.14
Cons 32.4% | Lib 25.5% | NDP 18.4% | GPC 10.1% | BQ 10.0% | Oth 3.6%
Previous week: n=1440, July 7-13, MoE=2.58
Cons 31.6% | Lib 27.5% | NDP 14.7% | GPC 13.3% | BQ 10.1% | Oth 2.7%
I think we're in a period of change in which the NDP will eventually pass the Liberals in popular support, because the Liberals are so depressingly similar to the Cons, and with such crappy leadership in Iggy.
The Liberal "brand" as some point out has a certain resilience -- as does the Conservative "brand"-- both have a lot more support than can be explained under current policies, circumstances and leadership. It remains to be seen what will happen since the NDP has not passed the Liberals. I suspect there is a tipping point when all the hot air would leave the balloon but I don't know wher ethat tipping point is. I suspect it may be only once the NDP passes the Liberals in seats -- in other words the NDP may ahve to really out do the Liberals by a lot in order to get to that point.
This could happen suddenly, as I have stated often political change is rapid.I have argued here that political culture moves slowly but manifests itself rapidly in politics on the ground once a tipping point is reached. Unfortunately, depending on where that tipping point actually is, there may be a prolonged period of time as the two parties compete on a fairly equal basis for a time. To complicate matters, people in Ontario (where I live) often forget that there is not a single political culture in Canada but rather several regional ones. This is why the parties may compete equally for a time- this tipping point has been reached in some provinces at times (and then reversed in some cases). This time the tipping point may be located in some regions differently than in others. We could see the Liberals eclipsed by the NDP in several regions while in others still retaining the lead.
Traditionally, I believe some parts of the country are more plugged in and aware than others. In particular BC and Quebec pay attention to what their politicians are saying and are more confident rejecting old visions that don't fit and replacing them with new ones so the tipping point in those provinces may be much lower because they pay more attention to the content and less to the labels of the parties whereas, I am sorry to say, Ontario pays a lot more attention to the labels and less to the actual politics and is therefore slower to recognize and embrace change.
It's looking like it's going to be Quebec that will save Canada from a Harper majority come the next election...
One of the many reasons why my Canada includes Quebec (for as long as they want).
Many people are unaware of how often Quebec leads on social policy and practical government policy-- including initiatives for the environment. They do at times go in the wrong direction but there is a lot that we learn from them and anyone who is familiar with the First Ministers' meetings understands the important role they play from an ideas point of view. This is not a new thing either.
It's probably unkind to point this out, but the week that Michael Ignatieff went on tour, the NDP went up by 4 points.
Latest EKOS: n=977, July 14-20, MoE=3.14
Cons 32.4% | Lib 25.5% | NDP 18.4% | GPC 10.1% | BQ 10.0% | Oth 3.6%
Previous week: n=1440, July 7-13, MoE=2.58
Cons 31.6% | Lib 27.5% | NDP 14.7% | GPC 13.3% | BQ 10.1% | Oth 2.7%
What I don't understand is that if Ekos is going to do these 2-week polls, and release the results for each week, why don't they have the same sample size for each week?
Many people are unaware of how often Quebec leads on social policy and practical government policy-- including initiatives for the environment. They do at times go in the wrong direction but there is a lot that we learn from them and anyone who is familiar with the First Ministers' meetings understands the important role they play from an ideas point of view. This is not a new thing either.
I'd agree for the most part, but hasn't Quebec embraced private health care more than the rest of the country? Or maybe it's just Charest forcing it on us (I've lived in Quebec since 1995), I'm not sure.
What I don't understand is that if Ekos is going to do these 2-week polls, and release the results for each week, why don't they have the same sample size for each week?
I just took it that they phone and phone, and then report the number of completed surveys they get. It's interesting that they seem to have obtained a higher response rate in the second week, but who knows what that means.
Many people are unaware of how often Quebec leads on social policy and practical government policy-- including initiatives for the environment. They do at times go in the wrong direction but there is a lot that we learn from them and anyone who is familiar with the First Ministers' meetings understands the important role they play from an ideas point of view. This is not a new thing either.
I'd agree for the most part, but hasn't Quebec embraced private health care more than the rest of the country? Or maybe it's just Charest forcing it on us (I've lived in Quebec since 1995), I'm not sure.
that was what I was thinking of when I said soemtimes in the wrong direction. Quebec may not always choose the best policy -- like any jurisdiction but they sure do have a fount of ideas to consider
Not a team player, the team being Team Harper, is the reason Greg is gone.
http://twitter.com/gmacofglebe/status/19287709562
He's an independent thinker and well-researched columnist, who got called a conservative hack here on Babble once too often, but as always, real life is more complicated.
According to this poll the NDP are now within 7% of the Official Opposition Party.
By a country mile, the most entertaining federal political pundit that has hit Canadian politics for a long time. She's absolutely delightful.
Here's a sample:
EKOS of the Week: The Others are coming! The Others are coming! (To Saskitoba, that is.)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba (MoE 14.0)
Conservatives: 42.4 (-2.1)
NDP: 32.8 (+14.8)
Liberals: 13.9 (-11.3)
Other: 8.5 (+8.5)
Green: 2.4 (-10.0)
I'm not positive, but I'm fairly sure this is the first time that The Others have managed to oust a listed party -- just two weeks after they quite literally fell off the map. You wanna talk momentum? It's all about The Others in Saskitoba. Oh, and in slightly less whimsical news, the NDP seems to have recovered from its prairie malaise, and is now within ten points of the Conservatives, and the Liberals -- well, they're still ahead of The Others, which is more than you can say for the Greens.
http://www.cbc.ca/politics/insidepolitics/2010/07/ekos-of-the-week-the-o...
Someone's obviously is less than enthusiastic about the present Liberal Party leadership. As long as people like Scott Reid (Paul Martin's guy) continue to be mouthpieces for them there's little hope for a revival.
Ignatieff's Liberal Express bus rolled into Shawinigan, early Thursday with the intention that the leader could meet with the former prime minister and mend fences damaged by Chretien's musings on a Liberal-NDP coalition.
As well, the former prime minister has been less than enthusiastic about Ignatieff, who has struggled badly in the polls.
When reporters asked Chretien whether he thought that Ignatieff was the best man for the job, Chretien answered cryptically.
"He is the leader. The leader is always the best guy for the job," he said.
When asked whether that was a yes or a no, he answered: "I said he's the best guy for the job because he's the leader; there's no other."
http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/TopStories/20100722/ignatieff-chretien-100722/ [/quote]
The NDP are fortunate indeed to have such a class act as exhibited by their leader. The NDP's political fortunes could sustantially improve in the next election.
Vindication for Taliban Jack
So now it's time to talk to the Taliban.
Now cup your hand to your ear and listen for the caterwauling of the uber patriots here on the home front decrying the minister's capitulation to the enemy. Hmm. Oddly quiet. Could this minster really represent the government that so cravenly branded NDP leader Jack Layton "Taliban Jack" four years ago for suggesting exactly the same thing?
Layton earned the epithet when he suggested that after a century of trying to bomb the region into submission a better strategy might be to open up a line of communication. In another manifestation of their binary perspective on issues, the Conservatives took this to mean that Jack was a big fan of the Taliban and their horsewhipping of women.
"Is it next going to be tea with Osama Bin Laden?" asked Peter MacKay. A Globe and Mail columnist indignantly wrote "Would he pull out the chairs for their representatives? Would he pour tea for those who have killed 23 Canadian soldiers this year?"
http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2010/07/22/john-moore-vindication-for-taliban-jack/[/quote]
Can anyone post the poll numbers in Quebec?
Last I heard in late May it was BQ - 45%
Libs -22%
Cons - 11%
This was according to CTV Montreal which,for the past 6 years,has shown they're in favour of the Cons.
I'd love the real #'s IF they exist.
This is indeed a very sad day for Canada. How could we have lost our compassion so quickly!
My concern here is that this not become a vote-getter for Harper.
The right can sometimes be effective politically taking a complex (more than one sentence ) issue and turn it into a simplistic "hiring should be based on merit" slogan which everyone knows is BS.
At least the opposition NDP is opposed to these changes.
New Democrat MP Pat Martin called the move a "full-frontal attack on affirmative action."
Visible minorities, including aboriginals, have long been underrepresented in the public service.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-orders-affirmative-action-overhaul/article1648642/[/quote]
The NDP are fortunate indeed to have such a class act as exhibited by their leader. The NDP's political fortunes could sustantially improve in the next election.
Jack is certainly head and shoulders above the bozos who lead the other federal parties. Unfortunately, Canadians don't tend to reward 'class acts' at the ballot box (viz. Tommy Douglas, Robert Stanfield).
The favourable NDP leadership is only one of several issues that voters will be reflecting on the next time we go to the polls.
Harper's right wing meanness/ruthlessness, and the Liberals lack of fulfilling the Official Opposition's role are additional ones.
Can anyone post the poll numbers in Quebec?
Check http://threehundredeight.com for the most recent polls and projections. The poll you mention is slightly high for the Bloc (they averaged 40.6% in June) and slightly low for the Cons (they get 15% on average), Ignatieff and the Liberals, still poll at Dion levels (slightly above 20%). As for the NDP, they are stable at around 12-13%.
Thanks bouchecl..I'm still delighted to see that the Cons are not much ahead of the NDP(a party with one Quebec seat-Thomas Mulcair)even if they are slightly higher in the polls than what I had heard.
I appreciate the link.
Another federal Conservative government is as good a reason as any for Quebec to go its own way IMHO. I'm really getting sick of Harper and his neocon thugs, and the Libs aren't much better. I wonder what an independent Quebec would look like. Guess I'll have to read the BQ and PQ charters or whatever they go by.
So Jay Hill is gone, finally.....
PG Peace River riding has done nothing but gone downhill since he represented it...
He, I bet like Lekstrom is feeling the brunt of the HST fall out plus other incidentals.
EKOS of the Week: The Others are coming! The Others are coming! (To Saskitoba, that is.)
Saskatchewan/Manitoba (MoE 14.0)
Conservatives: 42.4 (-2.1)
NDP: 32.8 (+14.8)
Liberals: 13.9 (-11.3)
Other: 8.5 (+8.5)
Green: 2.4 (-10.0)
I'm not positive, but I'm fairly sure this is the first time that The Others have managed to oust a listed party -- just two weeks after they quite literally fell off the map. You wanna talk momentum? It's all about The Others in Saskitoba. Oh, and in slightly less whimsical news, the NDP seems to have recovered from its prairie malaise, and is now within ten points of the Conservatives, and the Liberals -- well, they're still ahead of The Others, which is more than you can say for the Greens.
http://www.cbc.ca/politics/insidepolitics/2010/07/ekos-of-the-week-the-o...
I have to wonder how many respondents to the survey were from Saskatoon-Humboldt. Given that Jim Pankiw (who has issues by the bucketload) is running as an independent in that riding, I think maybe, just maybe, that partly explains the high 'others' rating. I certainly can't think of any other parties or candidates who would fit the bill.
Its not Sask who will help decide the fate of the Conservatives but BC and Toronto and I think it is just such excitiing news as I predicted the NDP would be the next offical opposition and I got a feeling it soon could very well be a reality. Does that leave the Conservatives in the drivers seat? I certainly hope not.
Question of the day? Does rope in BC and Toronto have a HST tax attached to it? You know the rope that the Conservatives hung themselves with as Harper sets out to put Canadians in their place with deficit spending=what a contradiction as cities will find themselves on the short end of the equation as homelessness and poverty continue to climb while Liberals and Conservatives knock heads on issues that don't lead anywhere. Harper asks UN for open arms for Canada when it comes to human rights and with BC just yesterday Authorities showing its true colors as officer takes societies afflicted and knocks them to the ground like the poor women wasn't even human is an everyday occurence in East side Vancouver, Canada. Can't see it happening Harper.
Yes, it's interesting that we haven't seen a CROP poll for awhile, but they may be timing it for after Ignatieff's bus tour to see if that had any effect. Although, what the heck were they doing wasting their time in the Beauce (Max Bernier's seat)?
Another federal Conservative government is as good a reason as any for Quebec to go its own way IMHO. I'm really getting sick of Harper and his neocon thugs, and the Libs aren't much better. I wonder what an independent Quebec would look like. Guess I'll have to read the BQ and PQ charters or whatever they go by.
It all depends who you ask...Friends of mine who are sovereignists maintain that Quebec cannot be free to take progressive initiatives as part of Canada.
They have a real inclusive and progressive vision of a sovereign Quebec,much like alot of Quebec artists.
Then you have the nationalist xenophobes that offer no ideas beyond a ethnically cleaned pur laine French country.
Unfortunately,the BQ and PQ do not elaborate as to what a sovereign Quebec would be beyond the language issue.
This is why I have voted UFP and Quebec Solidaire in the last 2 elections and will continue to do so..They have a full and comprehensive platform and vision for what a sovereign Quebec would be.
André Pratte has written a withering editorial for La Presse, calling the Harper government "one of the most incompetent and harmful governments this country has ever known", and urging mutiny by his cabinet ministers.
Here's a partial translation by Macleans.ca's Philippe Gohier.
Thanks ottawaobserver...I never read La Presse because it's a right wing snot rag...So the fact that this was published by La Presse is really sweet.
Although, what the heck were they [Iggy Express] doing wasting their time in the Beauce (Max Bernier's seat)?
Before they went, when I saw it on the schedule, I wondered if they had some stunt in mind. Something they would do there to get some quebec media attention. But I guess not.
Not a team player, the team being Team Harper, is the reason Greg is gone.
http://twitter.com/gmacofglebe/status/19287709562
And now, Eric Margolis too
http://torontosunfamily.blogspot.com/2010/07/margolis-out.html [49]
Neither party runs candidates here I think. Guess I'll vote NDP again, as the BQ guy here is pretty useless.
André Pratte has written a withering editorial for La Presse, calling the Harper government "one of the most incompetent and harmful governments this country has ever known", and urging mutiny by his cabinet ministers.
Here's a partial translation by Macleans.ca's Philippe Gohier.
If he thinks school boards are run more seriously than the Tories run Canada, then he clearly has never been to a TDSB board meeting.
The scary part is, he possibly has.
Yikes.
If the likes of TDSB are held as paragons of POGG (especially GG), then we're in bigger trouble than we thought.
It gives me no joy to post this analysis.
One again kudos to Paul Wells, a very rare political pundit in Canada, who actually does scientific research by studying previous political results and trends before pontificating.
And as well, prior to the Conservatives actually calling an election, Harper will be doing everything possible to ramp up the Conservative polling numbers at the beginning of the election campaign.
We could be in a scary, very, very close to a Harper majority situation.
If a Harper majority is to be averted, the NDP has to have a major kick start to their campaign
Party / Last Election / Latest Nanos Poll* / Initial Seat Forecast / HECS Seat Forecast**
Cons / 143 seats, 38% / 36% / 135 seats / 150 seats
Libs / 77 seats, 26% / 29% / 85 seats / 76 seats
NDP / 37 seats, 18% / 21% / 43 seats / ?
Bloc / 49 seats, 10% / 9% / 44 seats / ?
Totals / 306 seats*** /........... / 307 seats**** / 308 seats
*My Federal Seat Projections based on Nanos Research, Canada's most accurate, and equally as important, a non-affiliated pollster.
** My Federal Seat Projections based on Nanos Research Historical Election Campaign Shifts
*** 2 Independents
**** 1 Independent
So that's five federal elections in a row, 1997 to 2008, where the trend is for the Liberals to bottom out and the (assorted conservative, then Conservative Party) opponent to have better results than recent polls had indicated. Note that this isn't about "governments" dipping while "oppositions" gain: conservative parties posted writ-period gains against the Liberals without regard to which of them was in power.
http://www2.macleans.ca/2010/07/17/pre-election-peaks-and-doldrums-or-a-lesson-for-alf/[/quote [55]]
It looks pretty grim..But without Quebec,Harper will not win a majority..And thankfully,with the exception of the regions around Quebec City,the Cons do not have much of any support out here.
Thanks for your response Alan, however Quebeckers are some of Canada's most astute voters who usually like to side with a winner, so they are not left out of the perks that come with government. The Cons only got 10 seats in Quebec last time, and even it that was cut in half, it looks like Harper could pick that up and more in Ontario alone.
Ontario
Party / 2008 GE / Latest Nanos Poll / Forecast / HECS Seat Forecast
Cons / 39.2%, 51 seats / 43.2% / 56 seats / 59 seats
Unfortunately, Harper could be a lot closer to that elusive majority than some political observers realize.
I'd be surprised if Harper got more than 10 seats in Quebec..Voters may be astute but they're not stupid..There is just too much of a division of ideology.
Even superstar politician Lucien Bouchard couldn't govern the province as he wanted to...Also,the Quebec electorate made a loud statement to how much they support the neocon agenda last election when the ADQ went from opposition to a measley 4 seats which under the rules of the National Assembley,the ADQ is not a recognized party in the NA..(I believe you need 10 seats to be recognized)..And the election before that,Quebeckers were not enthusiastic about the right leaning Andre Boisclair and that's the election where the PQ won the fewest seats since their inception...The ADQ,by default,won the most seats they ever had in the NA--again,thanks to the regions.
But Ontario could deliver the fatal blow to Canadian democracy as that province has become more and more in support of the Cons since the last election.
Alan
Here is the latest Nanos Research's (Canada's most accurate pollster) polling in Quebec, however to get the most precise assessment of the political mood in Quebec, it's usually essential to see the CROP & Leger Marketing polling data.
Quebec
Party / 2008 Election / Latest Nanos Poll / Change
Bloc / 38.1%, 49 seats / 38.6% / Up 0.05%
Libs / 23.8%, 14 seats / 24.6% / Up 0.08%
Cons / 21.7%, 10 seats / 19.3% / Down 2.4%
NPD / 12.2%, 1 seat / 13.8% / Up 1.6%
I'd be surprised if Harper got more than 10 seats in Quebec..Voters may be astute but they're not stupid..There is just too much of a division of ideology.
OK...10 seats and down 2.4%...And this translates into the Quebec electorate miraculously voting majority Conservative in the next election exactly how?
By-the-way the latest (June 14, 2010) Leger Marketing poll shows the NPD with 15%, now basically tied with the Cons in Quebec.
I wouldn't worry too much about the Cons in Quebec right now. Check the last three or four Léger polls (they're basically the only ones with decent Quebec samples, not the ±6% MoE of Nanos, with its measly 200ish samples). The Cons have polled consistently at 16-17% levels for the last six months. They're consistently on the wrong side of every issue and their right-wing colleagues of the ADQ are in disarray at the National Assembly after the disastrous resignation of Mario Dumont and the awful leadership contest.
Add to that the generalized dissatisfaction with both Harper's and Charest's governments (and some equate the two, reminding people of the Premier's former allegiances), the current zeitgeist doesn't lean towards conservative gains in Quebec.
This must be the latest AR poll, dated July 12th, 2010
Jack usually polls ahead of the NDP.
Perhaps though, the NDP needs to tweek Layton's image, by making him appear a bit more decisive, as that appears is to be working for Harper.
Harper not most popular politician, but Canadians want him as PM
IGNATIEFF REMAINS HIGHLY UNPOPULAR. LAYTON IS PRAISED, BUT NOT CHOSEN BY MANY TO FACE TOUGH CHALLENGES.
Cons - 36%
Libs - 27%
NDP - 20% Sweet!
Bloc - 10%
The NDP's Jack Layton, like his two main rivals, is seen as an intelligent politician, but is clearly regarded as friendly, with people using words such as down to earth, compassionate and honest to describe him. It is important to note that the good showing for the NDP in British Columbia-where Layton took part in a campaign against the unpopular harmonized sales tax (HST) last month-could become a problem for the Conservatives in the next federal election. The NDP finished in second place in 11 of the 22 federal ridings that the Tories currently hold in BC.
http://www.visioncritical.com/2010/07/harper-not-most-popular-politician...
Polling Company / Date / Cons / NDP / Libs / Bloc / Con-NDP Gap
G. Election / Oct 14, 2008 / 38% / 18% / 26% / 10% / 20%
Angus Reid / July 12, 2010 / 36% / 20% / 27% / 10% / 16%
Nanos Research / Jun 3/10 / 36% / 21% / 29% / 09% / 15% Not too shabby!
Well said.
Jean unprepared for Harper's bullying
In the Fall of 2008, as a Prime Minister facing certain defeat of his government at the hands of all three opposition parties, Harper knew what exactly he could get away with. He demanded, within a few weeks of reconvening the House, that Jean grant his government a constitutionally questionable prorogation.
Following a two-hour meeting between Harper and herself, Jean granted him a three-month recess that allowed Harper to redo his ridiculous budget, one that ignored completely the recession. As well, Harper took the time to complete his task of destroying the Liberal-NDP coalition by tarring Michael Ignatieff and Jack Layton with being propped up by the dreaded separatists, the same ones that Harper had used to defeat the Martin government in 2005.
Fearing that Harper would call an election and use populist majoritarian democracy to attack both her as well as her office, Jean, after consulting a small number of constitutional specialists, decided to take the line of least resistance. Reluctantly, she granted Harper his demand for prorogation and in so doing severely weakened her credibility as well as that of her office.
Indeed, Harper's bullying tactics paid off in spades. He had no problem in getting a second questionable prorogation this past winter, and this time, he did so by telephone.
And, no, PM Harper will not pick a new G-G who will stand up to him. Why? Because Harper is, and will remain, in a minority government situation. He will probably have to ask for another prorogation or an election in order to avoid, yet again, defeat in the House.
http://www.thestar.com/opinion/letters/article/834990--jean-unprepared-f...
Great opinion letter...The cartoon to the right was pretty funny,too
...and below the cartoon is a poll:
Do you agree with the decision to scrap the long-form census questionnaire?Yes (30%)
No (70%)
Total Votes: 10331
Apparently there's a poll coming from Harris-Decima for CP, showing the Conservatives down across the country, and the NDP in the lead in BC.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/support-for-tories-down-across-most-of-the-country-poll-suggests/article1653188/
The actual results are not contained in the story linked to above, but I guess we'll probably see them by the end of the day. Gregg says it's not the census issue per se. But he's said before that it feeds into a general dis-ease with Stephen Harper's style of governing, building on prorogation and everything else.
NR, could you possibly fix your close-quote problem in post #9, as it's affecting the rest of the thread. ty
OK, the next version of the story contained a few more numbers:
Harris-Decima: n=2,030, July 15-25, MoE-2.2
CPC - 31% (-3)
Libs - 26% (-1)
NDP 18% (+1)
GPC - 12% (+2)
BQ 10% (-1)
They are interpreting it as a "pox on all your houses" poll. Also, women are turning away from the Conservatives again (apparently we don't like risk). And not only is the NDP one point from the lead in BC, apparently it's gaining on the Conservatives in the prairies (this means seats in both cases, I would imagine). The Greens are showing an uncharacteristic bump in Quebec, but it appears to be coming at the expense of the Liberals.
Anyways, the full details are at this link (PDF). Lost the Internet for awhile, so that's why this post got delayed.
ETA: I found the last release [71], and added/corrected the changes from last month.
It is astounding that this government maintains a lead while sitting in office.
If there is a 10-point split in favour of the Conservatives in an election, that means the Liberals are finished.
Perhaps Conservatives don't want the rest of the electorate to be afraid of a Con majority so they don't talk to pollsters.
What's astounding about it??? THere has always been about 30-35 percent of Canadians who support rightwing parties. This is nothing new and quite frankly issues like the census are damaging but still flesh wounds in the overall scheme of things. The Liberals under Chretien did worse things and won three majority governments in a row.
Yeah but stock they did things that harmed the left, so that is nothing at all. The cons are even attacking their own. Sadly these people will still vote and won't change where they park. There isn't a right enough party for them to go to.
I think we should start the wild rose party across the country to vote split the right. Don't put much effort but enough to draw off say 5% of their vote. We could call it the green(why doesn't the strike out work?) brown party to represent brown shirts that want to run our lives while claiming to not want government.
Thorin...You reminded me of Ronald Reagen's son Michael when he responded to a statement made by his other son,Ron about how he didn't believe Ronnie would support the Tea Baggers.
Michael said , 'My father championed the plight of the 'little guy' and believed government had no place in people's personal life'...When I heard that,I nearly fell out of my chair.
But I guess it's true...Conservatives believe government has no place in the personal lives of private citizens unless it's a woman's uterus,your bedroom,your living room,your lungs,your body etc..etc...
And you're also completely correct..Contrary to the self-righteousness of the right,it is THEY who are the brown shirts.
In fact,before Obama became President,I had absolutely no idea that the Nazis were humanitarians..The right wing nuts and Tea Baggers of The South are pretty much what we have in Parliament .
These people believe that empathy,compassion,social justice,health care,civil liberties and unemployment insurance equates Nazism.
These people belong locked up in a rubber room...Despicable 'human' beings.
Yeah but stock they did things that harmed the left, so that is nothing at all. The cons are even attacking their own. Sadly these people will still vote and won't change where they park. There isn't a right enough party for them to go to.
The Conservatives took 38% of the vote in the last election. This poll has them at 31% - that is a very steep decline.
Yeah but I still peg them around 35 Eday. I don't see Iggy impressing on the campaign trail. People may let this slide down the memory hole anyway. 31 would be great I would be happy with 30,29,24 10,7 on Eday.
I get what you're saying, but that still gives the Cons a de facto majority with the help of the Liberals, unless Iggy can be convinced to work with the NDP (unlikely).
If anyone has suggestions on defeating the Conservative/Liberal Coalition, let us know, eh!
ETA: I think this needs a thread of its own.
A 30-29-24-10-7 etc. might throw off some unpredictable results.
I remember in 1990 the NDP got very efficient at getting seats in Ontario once their popular vote hit a certain level...
I would not be surprised at how that could turn out. A lot of western and urban seats could be up for grabs in that kind of scenario. Who knows. 6% higher for the NDP and 8% lower for the cons(a direct flip of 14 % would change everything in the west) with the libs nearly static . The NDP might even get close to the seats their share of the vote dictates. Back in 93 PCs got leveled to 2 seats with 15% of the votes, Even the NDP did better with something like 8% of the vote.
That is however my most optimistic guess. ceilings and floors have limits. So for every vote the NDP can take from the libs their would be some coming from the cons to libs in eastern canada. Thats why I can't see the libs at 24% unless the cons are at 35% which would help the NDP but might give the cons a majority with that kind of split.
The Tory vote will get out, and so will the NDP vote. Perhaps many Liberals will simply refuse to vote. It might explain the decl;ining overall turnouts...
Polling Company / Date / Cons / NDP / Libs / Bloc / Con-NDP Gap
G. Election / Oct 14, 2008 / 38% / 18% / 26% / 10% / 20%
Harris Decima / Jul 27/10 / 31% / 18% / 26% / 10% / 13% Even better!
Angus Reid / July 12, 2010 / 36% / 20% / 27% / 10% / 16%
Nanos Research / Jun 3/10 / 36% / 21% / 29% / 09% / 15% Not too shabby!
If the NDP crack 22% in ontario without stealing too much lib support(or rather however it slides from one party to another) we could see a very interesting election. I don't know about official opposition but 50 for the bloc, 50-60 for the NDP(at those numbers) and the libs hangingin in there with 90 or so seats would be interesting as can be. If the cons slide to 100 seats or so It would be the most interesting parliament in a long time. the two big one very close in seats and us tied with the bloc. Heck give the greens a seat or two as long as it isn't EMay.
If the Cons go down to 100 the Cons will be calling for Harper's head. If the Liberals don't beat the Cons, Libs will be calling for Ignatieff's head. If the NDP beats their record, few will be calling for Layton's head...
The Conservatives are not going down anywhere close to 100. But they wont be getting a majority either. If they are out as govt- most likely in my books- then Harper is gone for sure- even if he hasnt taken a personal beating. And he may be looking for an exit even if they manage somehow to exploit the Liberals in a manner that saves them in government.
Iggy is gone unless the Libs do fantastically, which is extremely unlikely.
Layton goes when he chooses, even if the results are fairly dissapointing.
But all of this is happening in the distant future. Or not, since given a few months those deeper dynamics could change. But more likely, the more the details change the more the fundamentals dont. Admittedy, I never thought a Fall election was likely... just a possibility. But I think whatever chance of that there was, is rapidly evaporating.
I certainly agree that there are a number of potential game-changers and I would not limit them in the way you have.
I do believe the Conservatives and the Liberals are both very fragile with a large number of parked and not very enthusiastic supporters. As much as the numbers of those voting for each party may be critical, those who stay home may also. I beleive the Cons have already figured this out and are trying to find issues that will bring out their base which may tell pollsters they are Conservative, lacking other options, but may not come out to vote.
So as I believe there is a lot more at play than we realize, I think there is potential for the Cons to either fall down to 100 seats or so-- especially as a large number of seats were won by small margins. This is not all good for the Liberals who could in spite of themselves surprise by simply winning seats by default as people vote against what could become a wounded government. On the other hand, the Liberals also have tepid support and a couple campaign mistakes and they could actually lose seats from the low position they are already in, perhaps, at the greatest extreme allowing a Conservative majority. Somebody has to win the seats; the NDP and other parties are only contenders in so many seats.
I have to agree with most pundits who believe that the Cons will remain ahead of the Liberals and that they will remain short of a majority. However, the national result is only an accumulation of a number of regional races. There are some terrible dynamics at play in the current first-past-the post configuration.
As well, the Greens, already faced with serious internal problems may also be squeezed by supporters concerned about the FPTP potential for creating power from small numbers of well placed votes. The extreme anti-environmental stance of this government has to a great degree placed a different context on the differences between opposition parties on the environment as they all appear very distant from the government. In that sense Green voters may find themselves simply trying to defeat Conservatives rather than attempting to elect Greens.I am not sure how significant this could be as the Greens never had that much weight to throw around but combined with other dynamics, this could add up to something.
Front page of Le Journal de Montreal today...Leger and Leger marketing poll reveals Quebeckers find Harper confident but a hypocrit..lol
Hypocrisy is a necessary part of English-speaking life.
Hypocrisy is a necessary part of English-speaking life.
A very curious statement, Uncle J. Does this apply everywhere in the world, or only in Canada? And exactly how does language influence the character trait we call hyprocrisy? Curious minds want to know.
Les Québécois perçoivent Harper comme confiant et hypocrite
ENCART:: Le sondage en ligne réalisé par Léger Marketing indique que 56 % des Canadiens interrogés croient que le premier ministre Harper est déterminé, 55% pensent qu'il est confiant tandis que seulement 28% croient que le chef libéral Michael Ignatieff est déterminé et confiant.
Les Québécois sont un peu moins emballés, puisque 49 % estiment que Stephen Harper est déterminé et 45 % trouvent qu'il est confiant, alors que 26 % considèrent Michael Ignatieff comme un homme déterminé et 23 % perçoivent qu'il est confiant.
«Le classement de Michael Ignatieff est très bas dans presque tous les éléments de comparaison», résume le vice-président de Léger Marketing, David Scholz. Il estime que les Canadiens n'en savent toujours pas beaucoup plus sur le chef libéral, 20 mois après son élection à la tête du parti. «Nous ne savons pas s'il est déterminé ou confiant, nous ne savons pas ce qu'il peut faire», résume M. Scholz.
http://lejournaldemontreal.canoe.ca/journaldemontreal/actualites/nationa...
A good article in the mainstream press about polling, although I'm bothered with Melchers comments about, or perhaps concerned about his relationship with, his mother, but that's another topic.
Why you can trust the census, but not polls
"Opinion polls are generally trash," Ron Melchers, a statistician at the University of Ottawa says. Response rates on private surveys are low and falling. It's not uncommon for four out of five people to refuse to answer. Or more. That creates huge opportunities for bias to creep in. "My aged mother will answer any survey she's asked to answer. She's isolated, she's alone, she's grumpy and irritable, and she hasn't got all of her marbles. These are the people who are most likely to respond to a lot of these polling surveys," says Melchers.
StatsCan conducts voluntary surveys but it uses the census data to "weight" the results -- that is, to adjust it and correct for bias. Private pollsters generally don't or can't do that. And soon, thanks to the government's decision on the census long form, neither will StatsCan.
All of this means that getting an accurate picture of reality -- as represented by numbers -- can be a lot harder than most people realize. Two conclusions follow.
One, we should be much more skeptical about the numbers that are used so casually in public discourse. "Often people using numbers have no idea where those numbers come from," Melchers says.
The other is that the census is unique. And uniquely valuable.
Or at least it was until Stephen Harper came along.
http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/canada/trust+census+polls/3330368/st...
This is rich - talk about being out of touch with the average person/family in Canada.
Educating Michael Ignatieff
Attending one of the top private boarding schools in the country, Upper Canada College, is hardly what comes to mind when one thinks of a "publicly-funded education."
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/educating-m...
In the October 14, 2008 election, the the NDP came second in 11 of the 22 Con seats. Let's go get 'em.
The incredible shrinking Tory tent
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/the-incredible-shrinking-to...
English speaking as in the English-speaking world. everywhere English is spoken.
A good article in the mainstream press about polling, although I'm bothered with Melchers comments about, or perhaps concerned about his relationship with, his mother, but that's another topic.
Why you can trust the census, but not polls
"Opinion polls are generally trash," Ron Melchers, a statistician at the University of Ottawa says. Response rates on private surveys are low and falling. It's not uncommon for four out of five people to refuse to answer. Or more. That creates huge opportunities for bias to creep in. "My aged mother will answer any survey she's asked to answer. She's isolated, she's alone, she's grumpy and irritable, and she hasn't got all of her marbles. These are the people who are most likely to respond to a lot of these polling surveys," says Melchers.
StatsCan conducts voluntary surveys but it uses the census data to "weight" the results -- that is, to adjust it and correct for bias. Private pollsters generally don't or can't do that. And soon, thanks to the government's decision on the census long form, neither will StatsCan.
All of this means that getting an accurate picture of reality -- as represented by numbers -- can be a lot harder than most people realize. Two conclusions follow.
One, we should be much more skeptical about the numbers that are used so casually in public discourse. "Often people using numbers have no idea where those numbers come from," Melchers says.
The other is that the census is unique. And uniquely valuable.
Or at least it was until Stephen Harper came along.
http://www.montrealgazette.com/news/canada/trust+census+polls/3330368/st...
Interesting and partly wrong.
First private polls do weight their results-- all of them do.
The key point is they use census data to do so. This is the reason at the end of the poll they ask census like questions- age, gender, education, and they have location. What they do is call enough people till they have a representative sample-- It is true the older women fill up first and the 18-24 men last. The census tells them how many to accept of each to create the representative number and then they can look at whatever the survey was asking. If you lack the demographic information you cannot weight the sample and then it can be biased.
Uncommon for 4 out of five to answer he says-- wrong again. 4 out of five he implies is a very poor response rate. In fact polls are way below that and have been for years. Depending on the topic over 90% refuse and if you count people who don't even pick up as refusals it is much higher. But that is not new.
anyway the writer clearly knows very little about polling even if he is an expert on stats. Polling is different and there is no reason to assume a person who knows stats knows polling. However, generally those who know polling also do know stats.
The greater issue with polling may in fact be language-- there are large numbers of people who do not speak the predominant language and pollsters can't get their opinions. They assume they are like the people they can talk to but that is not always the case. I agree with the general conclusion but this guy does not appear to know much about polling.
Hypocrisy is a necessary part of English-speaking life.
I would not limit it to one language group -- not only because it is offensive to say that but because it is ridiculous.
Certainly it is a common human trait.
Interesting analysis by the Georgia Straight pundit Charlie Smith
Michael Ignatieff dragged down by provincial Liberal parties' fortuneshttp://www.straight.com/article-336713/vancouver/michael-ignatieff-dragg...
The problem with Harper's government is Harper
http://www.montrealgazette.com/technology/problem+with+Harper+government...
Basically I agree with Melchers.
With the percentage of barely 40% eligible voters showing up at the polls,we are all doomed to shitty governments...leftist voters are very apathetic where right wing voters always turn up...
Harperites ALWAYS show up at the election polls....
(image deleted by moderator)
Is that Zippy the Pinhead?
I remember him!
Does this mean Day is an unreported criminal?
What Stockwell Day really meant to say
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/what-stockw...Stockwell Day and the Mystery of the Unreported Crime Surveys
http://www.cbc.ca/politics/insidepolitics/2010/08/stockwell-day-and-the-...
Stockwell Day and the Mystery of the Unreported Crime Surveys
http://www.cbc.ca/politics/insidepolitics/2010/08/stockwell-day-and-the-...
I'm getting a kick out of all the negative press the Reform Party has been getting lately...I hope this means that those who traditionally sit on the fence will actually get off their asses,show up at the booths next election and turf these maniacs out of control of (as it turns out) ALL our institutions.
The only 'institution' this Reform Party/Mike Harris Tories coalition should be a part of is a mental institution.
OK,sorry..I got that out of my system and now I feel better.
I'm happy to read all the negative press the Cons have been getting lately...I'll leave it as that.
BTW...I wonder if Justice Minister Nicholson got the memo that the majority of Canadians and NOT their constituency who are not but a minority fringe group,were in favour of the decriminalization of marijuana OR that the Senate committee that recommended cannabis be LEGALIZED in 2003 was presided by Progressive Conservative senator Pierre-Claude Nolin and when Canadians answer polls which show they are concerned with crime,the majority of them are not locking up their doors and hiding in fear because someone might be smoking a spliff near by.
Why do you think they are spending over $2 billion on new prisons when Canada's crime rate has been declining steadily year after year for the last 15 years
An out of touch government clearly at work for a fringe group which makes up their constituency.
daevid39, your post #97 is offensive and contrary to policy. I really hope I don't have to explain why. Please find some non offensive way to make your point. Actually, just lose the picture. I'll check back and remove it myself if you don't see this.
ETA: actually, looking at the post count I'll just remove the picture and close for length.
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