Laying Odds: Predict the next week

Your scenario breaks down right there. Harper can't prorogue parliament on his own, he can only advise the GG to do so. If she's already refused to dissolve, why would she consent to prorogue?

1) The Conservatives will stall as long as possible in order to develop some sort of economic stimulus package.

2) The Coalition will say that the economic stimulus package is too little too late, and will soundly rebuke it and tell the GG that they can form a government at first opportunity.

3) The GG will allow the coalition to govern.

4) The Conservatives will do everything possible to avoid this, including calling on the Queen to intervene. 

5) The fractured agreement will stay in place for about six months. At that time, the three parties will fail to agree on something as each of them tries to use their position as leverage for more power.

6) An election will be called.

7) The Conservatives will win a majority government as the funding dollars the Conservatives have will allow them to paint the opposition as more interested in power, than in the interest of Canada. 

The coaltition will take government shortly and provide good but not great government

Stephen Harper will be out as leader before spring

Aliens will land on Parliament Hill, ask to speak to our Leader and no one will know who to take them to see.

Speaker Miliken will write a best selling book about his experiences as the Canadian envoy to planet of Outerfartssway

Sort of related: Please go and vote in the poll on the front page of rabble about the coalition! 

Michelle, I voted, but not sure if it took, no new window pops up saying it registered, nor any window saying the state of the poll standings.

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Yeah, I've noticed that sometimes it takes a minute, or even hangs.  If you're not getting the poll results, then it didn't take.

Okay, thanks will try again.

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Why start 3 threads in 4 minutes on the same subject?

Love the question, I am a Conservative and here to freep this poll! :D

It took before, just did not get the display window.

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1. Harper will request permission to prorogue Parliament.

2. The GG will grant this request.

3. The Conservatives will unleash a PR barrage attacking the coalition parties.  The attacks will focus on Dion (again) and the Bloc.  This has already started.

4. Harper will put forth a modified economic statement early in the new year, which is moderately more pro-active in terms of stimulating the economy.

5. Flaherty may be replaced by Prentice.

6. The opposition will declare a non-confidence motion and request the chance to govern.

7. The GG will deny this request.

6.  Harper will request and receive a dissolution before the Liberals' convention and will win another minority.

I think sofun has ir right, sadly.  That said, the GG may simply refuse to prorogue in the absence of any work done on the Queen's business.

I think Harper can prorogue - but even if the house is prorogued until january - that still doesn't change the fact that as long as their is a viable alternative government to harper - Jean has no choice but to invite it to try to govern.

Let's face it, any GG would do this - but its an especially easy decision for Jean since she is known to be quite leftwing herself and that she and Harper hate one another.

The Globe and Mail listed Harper's 10 possible options, some of which I had not considered. A major one is that Harper could replace Jean with a GG who is more likely to do what he wants.

1. Harper asks the GG to prorogue Parliament.  She refuses, asking Harper to demonstrate that he still has confidence of the house.

2. Harper asks the Queen to remove the GG and replace her.

3. If the Queen accepts his request, we'll have another election.  If she does not, the coalition will govern for at least a year. 

Don't you mean the coalition would win another majority?

Lol. Maxx, that is the best way I have heard it said and oh soooo true!

We're past the point of no-return, the opposition parties seem unified and the Conservatives aren't capable of making amends at this point in the game... the "toxicification" of the House so to speak has made it impossible to have a functional parliament. My prediction is that Harper will try and pro-rogue next week to avoid the non-confidence motion and in the meantime he'll push for another election while bombarding the Canadian public with right wing propaganda trying to convince us that the coalition is a coup d'etat and will lead to the division of Canada (via the BQ devil Gilles Duceppe) which may or may not be true.

Then the governor general has two options: 1. oblige the PM in pro-roguing and grant/not grant an election call... either way it is stalling the inevitable election and/or coalition governance because a return to parliament in january would not be functional and i can't imagine canadians re-electing harper let alone the conservative party allowing him to stay on as leader after this fiasco... or 2. ignore the PMs request and granting the coalition the right to govern.

Personally, I think option 2 is better given the present situation... although I have my doubts on the long-term sustainability of the coalition because of the leadership factor (despite the fact that Dion is probably the best man for the job) and of course the obvious ideological divisions between the parties. Not to mention the public opinion kickback should we go to hell in a handbasket, oh man that would lead to some dark days ahead...

anyways, here's an interesting article from the globe on the subject of harper's options... one of which includes getting rid of the governor general!?! 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20081202.WBSteele2008...

 I would hope so, but I'm not holding my breath.  If Harper survives into the new year I would bet he'll call an election before the Liberals can pick a new leader.

Scenario 1:  Harper will prorogue until January, at which time he will fall and the coalition will take over.

Scenario 2:  Harper will declare martial law, saying he is destroying democracy in order to save it.

Wow, josh, even I'm not THAT cynical! 

I'll go out on a limb, too, and predict Harper will  possessed by the spirits of Generals Zia, Musharraf, Pinochet, and ... Just kidding.

I double dog dare you to prove it by taking it to the people and having them decide.

One scenario that may be more plausible and more immediate a possibility than is generally credited goes like this:

1) Someone in the PMO is taken away in cuffs for releasing tape of the NDP caucus meeting.

 2) Senior Conservatives around the country begin to call for Harper to resign.

3) The Conservatives begin eating their children. 

I also have to believe that there are senior Conservatives who are already very uncomfortable with both Harper's boneheaded moves and his tone.  If he had kept the volume down and the message a little closer to high ground I would have said prorogation was a given.  Now I'm not so sure.

I'm thinking that his extraordinary willingness to attack constitutionally guaranteed processes as being an assault on democracy is cutting into his support in important corners of his own party. I have to believe that the GG will be taking it into account when she makes her decision.

Moreover, if we have an election, yet again, it would still be another minority government, and the majority would still express non-confidence, and we would have wasted another 300 million, just as Harper wasted the last 300 milllion. Think about it, over a half of billion dollars in 2 elections wasted by Harper, in these tough economic times.

Harper would not wear an election well.

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While he undoubtedly lacks the confidence of the House, there hasn't been a vote of non-confidence, and our subjective impressions about this may be worth about as much, legally, as our subjective impressions about the guilt of someone who's currently on trial. Of course, the Tories would pay a hefty price for this, as you point out, but if they did put their own stooge in place, and the opposition voted no confidence anyway, they'd also suffer for forcing yet another election. Who would suffer more is anyone's guess. Certainly Andrew Steele thinks this is a possibility, anyway.

Harper will ask the GG for an election, the opposition will ask the GG to form government. She will turn down both, scold them, and tell them to get down to work/figure out their differences, between now and January. The move will be very popular. The GG will then prorogue the House. Depending on the party alignment after the Christmas holiday there will either be a coalition government or no coalition government.

 Basically, I have no doubts that the coalition will be popular with more Canadians than it will be unpopular with. The problem is, how does the opposition make the GG's decision as easy as possible for giving the coalition a chance to govern. If she has a viable option that is potentially more popular (like scolding politicians and both deciding in favour and against the two interested parties) than a coalition, then she will go for it. Just like the political parties, and given the historic precedent, the GG is only concerned with the popularity and prestige of her office.

 Let us hope that Harper is smart enough to know that he gambled and lost. He is only going to make it worse for himself, his family and his party by this dishonest PR campagne that he seems to be initiating, the trade mark of an out of the closet bully.  

 Mind you, it is just these tactics that unite his oposition, if he resigned and his deputy took over then we could soon see some infighting in the coalition.

 I think he knows he lost the gamble hence the dishonest PR campaign and the out right lying. It's all he has left right now.  He's pretty much fighting for his life, not only for his own party but for his personal career. 

Expect the kitchen sink to come a flyin'.  

Harper will request that Parliament prorogue until January; the GG will grant this request.

A vicious campaign between pro- and anti-coalition forces will ensue.  Since a lot of the upset is based on confusion and misunderstanding of our Parliamentary system, I think there might actually be potential for support of the idea to markedly increase as it percolates around the media.

When the coalition shows no signs of cracking as the budget day approaches, the Conservative caucus will revolt, and Harper will be forced to resign as party leader.  The GG will invite a new Conservative MP to become PM, and the Conservative minority will survive with the help of absentee Liberals during the first confidence vote.

Harper will ask the GG to prorogue. She will say her role is to protect the rights of parliament, and ask the Speaker to ask parliament if they want to prorogue. They will say no. Harper will finally realize how he is going to look to historians, and resign honourably.

You missing the fact that the GG is compelled by convention to allow the majority of elected members govern.

Moreover, I believe you misread Steele's commentary.

Primary point Harper would dare not go to the Queen and ask for ther GG's removal

The Queen would never ever consider it, for the above reasons and convention does not allow for it and we can note this too from Steele's words:

What Steele stated about proroguing:

They know full well convention requires the GG to request an indication that the government has the confidence of the House. AKA a confidence vote, that is why we have such things too. She cannot sidestep this reality of Convention requirements. No extra government affairs can be innacted if there is a stated failure of confidence, that is why GG's have to ask for a confidence measure in minority governments where there is doubt of confidence. No extra governmental actions can be undertaken without it. 

Harper is merely trying to muddy the waters, as is his Globe propagandists. See the thread the GG's responsibilities..

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Great lines from comments on Kady O'Malley's blog:

A constitutional law professor on CTV said that the Queen is highly unlikely to intervene in Canadian politics by removing a Governor General on advice of a minority Prime Minister who has obviously lost control of the House.  That's a relief.

More predictions:  Conservative supporters blockade airports around the country, protesting the new coalition government, demanding a new election....

I wonder if there would be ANY scenario whereby the Tories stay in power after saying "uncle" in a meaningful way. For example, could they stay in power if any or all of the following happened:

1. Harper quits and is quickly replaced by a less pathological Tory.

2. Harper makes some major mea culpa to the Canadian people and grovels and then the opposition demands and gets something in writing from him that from now on only the budget and the throne speech will be considered confidence measures and all other government bills can be defeated anytime by the opposition with no possibility of it provoking an early election.

3. Flaherty quits and the budget in January is loaded with spending and looks like it was written by the coalition in the first place.

I'm not saying that the coalition should back down - I just wonder if there are any drastic things the Tories could do that would give them a lease on life. 

Maybe in Alberta.

If they got rid of both Harper and Flaherty and offered a decent incentive package, I would be absolutely shocked to see enough Liberals turn up to defeat them. Only 11 of them would need to play it safe by taking the out.

There is a reasonable chance that Stephen Harper will be thrown overboard to save the rest of his government, especially if the GG denies prorogation.

And even if she doesn't.

Harper has always been the issue for ReformCons.  Whatever happens they should dump him.  That'll do us all a favour.

1) Harper is going to ask the GG to prorogue parliament.

2) The GG agrees, with conditions that restrict the government from doing much (no appointments, limited orders-in-council) until they recovene parliament.

3) The Conservatives will develop a throne speech and a budget over the break and present it to Parliament in mid-January.

After that it depends on what is in the throne speech and/or budget and what the public sentiment is at the time and whether the proposed coalition falls apart or not. 

Harper could wait until the last moment possible to ask for a prorogue to see how the winds are blowing, so I have little confidence in this prediction.

Harper should  have resigned twice by now, and/or should have submitted his government to a confidence vote in the House. He didn't and he has conducted himself unconsitutionally, and anti-democraticlly. The CPC party at large have allowed this and fostered it.

Harper has to resign. He cannot ask for proroguation, he does not have the authority to do so, just as he has no authority to call for the GG's changing from the Queen. At this point constitutionally, he is not even the first minister, and is just another one of the 308 ministers. He is dangerously close to treason, by way of trying to attempt an actual coup, carried out by public opinion and propaganda.

Yet he tries to say the Official opposition are attempting a coup, and depriving Canadians from the democratic choice. And that is but a smoke screen for his own coup attempt.

According to our democratic conventions, he should have resigned his government the minute his party received a second minority goverment, after it was granted dissolution for failing to have House confidence. He sought wiggle room by saying it was an increased minority. This meant/means he has to face immediate testing of House confidence, he asnd the CPC failed in the Speakers elected position, and that is the second time, by constitutional convention, he should have resigned. He wiggled from that by saying the Liberals said they would support the Throne Speech.

He is out of wriggle room, the House has writen to the GG, and stated non-confidence. The GG is now conventianlly compelled to tell Harper he must either resign his government, or face immediate confidence of the House.

At this point, the CPC have to eject Harper as PM, the House has stated non-confidence in him as first minister, and they either try to seek immediate confidence of the House with a new interum leader. Or they must resign en masse, and the GG must allow the majority of the House a chance to govern. An immediate election cannot be called, unless the House has not stated the possibility of the ability to govern. They have formally, and that is it, conventionally there cannot be an election.

There would no be walking across the floor by Liberals, as then they would be tarred with the CPC's unconstitutional and anti-democratic actions. This has now gone way too far for that type of action. The public will eventually catch on to what the CPC have done, or tried to do, and the Liberal floor crossers would pay the price.

So my prediction is that, the CPC having to oust Harper as leader, because constitutionally he cannot stay on as first minister, will try to hold on.

Or perhaps the GG will just grant immediate operational authority to the House cooperative and then tell them they must face an immediate testing of House confidence. 

And should the cooperative House fall on their first confidence measure, Harper could not come back as the newly elected leader of the CPC and face a 3rd minority government. The CPC would have to gain a majority, not going to happen, and then back door him in.

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You mean one of 308 MPs and you seem to forget that he won a confidence vote on the Throne Speech.

I will put some odds (probably arbitrary because, what do I know?) on this thing.

5%: a massive campaign against the coalition by the Tories swings enough undecideds against a coalition that Jean dissolves parliament (it really is 50-50 right now - a majority favour a coalition over an election, but a majority also prefer the Conservatives continuing to govern over a coalition - with many undecideds). 

10%:  Enough backbenchers and possibly Ignatieff himself form a third bloc, forcing a compromise and preempting the coalition by voting against a VONC.

10%: Either at the behest of his party, or on his own initiative, Harper compromises dramatically - possibly falling on the sword himself - and the coalition loses steam.  

10%: The VONC passes. The governor-general, possibly with the support of the premiers, brokers a deal between the opposition and government. This could even involve a grand coalition under another Prime Minister.

.0000000000001%: The governor-general reads my email and turns the question of what she should do over to a referendum. The coalition probably wins.

65%: The VONC passes without a hitch and Michelle Jean appoints the coalition as a government.

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Long term outlook for coalition

10% VONC before May 2009

-8% Conservatives gain in election

-2% Coalition gains in election

reason: no coalition accomplishments, Dion still leader, coalition issue still hot. 

25% VONC between May 2009 and 18 months

-18% Conservatives gain in election

-7% Coalition gain in election

reason: minor residual anger about coalition from conservative liberals, recession impact still not entirely apparent, coalition looks ineffective.

40% VONC between 18 months and 2.5 years

-30% Conservative gains

-10% Coalition gains (mostly Bloc)

reason: recession at its worst. VONC picked at a time when best for Conservatives and Bloc, not NDP and Liberals. On other hand, anger over coalition minimal. 

20% VONC/election after 2.5 years

-8% Conservative gains

-12% coalition gains

reason: recession becoming milder, government taking credit. Government looks competent for lasting so long, and anger over the coalition just present among Tory base. Coalition finally has debts paid off, and a warchest ready for election. 

5% Election in 3-5 years 

-1% Conservative gains 

-4% Coalition gains

reason: Coalition government widely praised for navigating Canada through recession. Nobody cares about coalition issue, in fact, when Tories talk about it, people fall asleep. Lib-NDP probably forms a majority together without the Bloc. 

Cumulative prediction for outcome of next election

Conservative gains: 65%

Coalition gains: 35%

Therefore...

Harper/Tories survive: 35% (probably not for long, and they probably lose the next election by being blamed for not doing enough about the recession)

Coalition takes power, does poorly in next election: 42.25%

Coalition takes power, does well in next election:  22.75%

Reason: short-term, anger over coalition bodes poorly for the coalition (they got their current seat total with 62% of the vote, support for the coalition is 50-50). Medium-term, the coalition gets tagged with the recession.  If the coalition can last for the long haul however, I think Canadians will reward it.

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Other random odds

Harper will prorogue: 15% (it only delays the inevitable)

The right will split again: 5%

Ignatieff becomes Prime Minister: a lot lower than people think

Canada fixes structural roots of crisis: 1%

Michelle Jean's approval rating when this is all done: 50% 

Not that it matters, as the minute non-confidence in the House is stated by the majority, the minority government leader no longer has confidence to hold the first ministers position, and its attendant powers.

Quote:

Resumption of Debate on Address in Reply

 

The House resumed consideration of the motion for an address to Her Excellency the Governor General in reply to her speech at the opening of the session, as amended.

    [Table of Contents [45]]

 

The Speaker [46]:  

Resuming
debate. Is the House ready for the question?

 

Some hon. members: Question.

 

The question is on the motion, as amended. Is it the pleasure of the
House to adopt the motion, as amended?

 

Some hon. members: Agreed.

 

Some hon. members: On division.

 

The Speaker: I declare the motion, as amended, carried.

Hansard [47]

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I hope Wilf is right. 

This is how I think things will play out now.:



I guess the coalition ,more than likely will never form government as if Harper gets his wish (And no one ever says no to him) Parliament will resume towards end of January and if he falls then the GG will just send us back to the polls when Harper asks for an election in Jan after his government falls on the throne speech.



The GG can stand up to Harper by denying him the chance to suspend parliament, especially since it has not sat too long, let the government fall and ask the opposition to form government. But she will let Harper dictate to her, again, just like with him breaking his election law last October. She won't say no to the PM. I would be shocked if she did.



I think he has talked to the GG and she is going to go along with his plans.



Harper is like Teflon, nothing sticks and what he wants he always seems to get and he and his party will survive this by a 'hair'...



Harper is a coward. He makes everything a confidence vote to get his way and when he is stood up too he runs like a chicken shit.



I see in addition to illegal wiretapping they are offering bribes of cabinet posts and senate seats....



I wonder what lies and BS Harper will spew tonight when PM to address the country about political crisis at 7 pm eastern, 4 pacific.



and Harper 'lies' about coalition details: Broadbent [50]



If the cons were going to do this, it would be ok, and he even wanted the same in 2004 but to them that is 'different'...



But apparently Stockwell  tried it too in 2000 and is lying like crazy in the house saying he never even saw that letter until last night..Gilles waved the letter around..



They sure like using the words 'socialist' and 'separatist' a lot. There is no way this government can function unless we have another election or the coalition is allowed to form government.



I think it is pretty bad we will have no Legislature sitting for almost 2 months during this economic crisis, Harper should be ashamed of himself as holding on to power is more important to him.

No Harper is not teflon, he is trying to make it that way, do not buy into it. To do so would be at your own peril.

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"watching the tide roll away"

If Harper was actually "Teflon" we wouldn't be in this crisis in the first place.

I took the poll, and instead of getting results, I was immediately whisked to some bizarro rabble world that I could only escape from by clicking my heels.  In hindsight, I should have made another choice.

Great prediction (made Dec. 2, 2008). Where is Taliesan now, when we need more great predictions!?