Will Dion/Rae agree to step aside for Ignatieff to be Prime Minister?

So the NDP's lust for semi-power at any cost is going to result in Ignatieff becoming PM.

The NDP will never live this folly down.

I am starting to agree with you mspector. Iggy as PM is giving me chills.

___________________________________________________________ "watching the tide roll away"

So what happens to the Liberal leadership race? Surely a Minister can't run against his own sitting PM.

 But consider the alternative of the status quo.

It's a devil's gambit. The alternative was certain death.

 That's what I was wondering as well.

Who's this John Ivison guy? Some comedian just making this stuff up?

It's a devil's gambit. The alternative was certain death.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Don't know whether I can handle this degree of rational reasoning.

And now to see what we can do involving Canada in saving jobs and Earth.

Yep.  A far superior outcome.

I really don't care who the Liberals have as PM. I think that any ideological difference between him and Dion or Rae are highly, highly exagerrated. These guys are all Liberals - they don't believe in anything anyways other than following public opinion. Why should I care if the PM is Ignatieff - its as if I'm going to fall in love with ANYONE who is a Liberal PM. Realistically, Iggy probably has the Liberal leadership sewn up anyways and I think that if there is to be a coalition government where the NDP has this much power and where there are also policy concessions to the BQ - its probably inevitable that the PM would have to be someone NOT associated with the left of the Liberal Party (if there even is such a thing)

So we get Ignatief installed as PM with no say from the electorate? What the hell was the hurry to get rid of Dion? What does this say to the Liberal membership? And what happens to Ignatieff if the coup falls through? What a freak show. I was excited, now it's just depressing again. That's too much change for the electorate.

If these reports are all accurate, this must be Ignatieff's dream come true.  Things could not have gone better for him, right down the prorogation. 

 If Harper does that, he surrenders any possible legitimacy to claiming democratic authority, while at the same time postively forcing the opposition to take him down at the first opportunity.  Giving Ignatieff a couple of months to get ensconsed as leader, during which time he can appear on the news every day hammering the PM for not facing the elected representatives of the people?

It's almost too much to believe.  Harper has become a caricature of all of his failings.

And yet babblers are falling all over themselves in an orgy of lesser-evilism, making deals with one devil to get rid of another devil. Go figure.

"So we get Ignatief installed as PM with no say from the electorate?"

Parties have a right to choose their leaders however they want. Its not up to the NDP or any of us to pas judgment on what mechanism the Liberals want to use. There have been many, many cases of PMs and Premiers being installed with no say from the electorate. This is what happens when a sitting PM resigns or dies in mid-term and their party picks a new leader. Ernie Eves was Premier of Ontario for two years when he took over from Harris.

The Canadian public does not elect a Prime Minister. We elect a PARLIAMENT and it is the role of the MPs to choose the PM. 

If you really think that there is no ideological difference WHATSOEVER between Harper and Ignatieff, Rae or Dion then why doesn't Harper offer the NDP six cabinet portfolios and a majhor say on government economic and social policies???

But what some people may be having trouble swallowing is that Iggy gets to become PM only with the consent and blessing of the NDP and the Bloc.

How many anti-'socialist' Liberals does Harper need to cross the floor to gain a majority.

Well put.

Brian Topp: Our friends on the blue team seem to mostly focus on sticks, and not so much on carrots. ;)

And yet babblers are falling all over themselves in an orgy of lesser-evilism, making deals with one devil to get rid of another devil. Go figure.

----------------------------------------------------------------------

I prefer to see it in the context of the lesser of two weevils.  (You have to say it quickly.!

Harper is about 12 seats short of a majority so i guess 12 Liberals would have to do that - but the thing is that most of the rightwing rural Liberals who might have ever done such a thing were either defeated or retired in the last election. The current Liberal caucus is almost entirely composed of people from Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver with a sprinkling from Atlantic Canada. There would be no advantage to any of those people joining the Tories.

What's more likely is that some "red Tory" types in the Conservative caucus would join the new government. I already saw in the NDP taped caucus meeting that Bill Casey is onside with the coalition.

Good for Casey!

Brian Topp: Our friends on the blue team seem to mostly focus on sticks, and not so much on carrots. ;)

Your usual debating tactic: distort and exaggerate what others say and then attack the distortion.

I can turn the tables on you: If you really don't care who is the Liberal leader/PM, are you really saying that there is no ideological difference WHATSOEVER between Ignatieff, Rae, or Dion?

Stupid, right?

It's crass and shameless opportunism. But no surprise really for anyone with zero political principles.

Bring in Cthulhu. Why settle for lesser evil?

What's up with the headline? I can't find a word about proroguing anywhere on any news site...

I can't seem to find it on ctv yet but this is a link to Andrew Coyne confirming that Rober Fife is stating that this is the case.

Link

Brian Topp: Our friends on the blue team seem to mostly focus on sticks, and not so much on carrots. ;)

Robert Fife claims Harper is going to prorogue...but I trust Robert Fife about as much as SH at this point.

No other news source is reporting the prorogue as far as I know. 

Just to clarify, in later editions of the CTV National News, after their earlier "scoop" of the caucus tape kind of fizzled as their big exclusive story of the night, Fife added in to the end of his double-ender with Sandi the prorogation rumour, which I assume he lifted from Stephen Taylor's blog.

As I said in another thread, if they prorogue without passing their own Economic Statement, then everything they said last Friday about how we would be hurting seniors by not passing the Ways & Means motion to adopt the provision about delaying RRIF withdrawals is proven to be BS, plus the Commons would just go crazy anyway.  Harper would look so desperate and autocratic it would backfire terribly ... I can't believe they would try it, but really who knows what dumb thing they're going to try next.

I spoke WAY too soon.  Now Rae's spokesperson is denying that he has agreed to do this and Dion apparently was not even at the meeting that Ivision reported on.

 As far as Fife, yeah, I'm in B.C. and so I got the later edition of CTV National News where he mentioned the prorugation possibility and made it seem like a certainty.

Sorry for spelling proruge wrong initially. I hate stuff like that.

it's "prorogue" actually.

I have to note down the time and date, but I think I agreed with most of what Stockholm just said...

Well, people seem to have finally noticed this is by no means necessarily true that Iggy has been chosen. I was skeptical the minute i heard it. and here's what I posted in one of th other threads:

I don't think the talk of Iggy camp scuttling the coalition, or of Iggy being the PM now comes from the Cons sowing stories.

I think they are plants to keep things churning, but they come from Iggy's camp.

So on the one hand they have Iggy giving the official line- "I'm 100% behind this." And at the same time they are working to keep alive that enough cracks begin to show that they can more openly cast doubt on the whole thing.

I wouldn't rule out that the Liberals choose Iggy to be Leader and PM. But it seems unlikely. Why would Rae agree to that? He has de facto veto power, and many others would not like it either.

And I agree that in the final analysis it doesn't matter who the Liberals choose.

The PMO is not going to be running this show. In fact, we're in for a demonstration of all the downfalls of government by committee in a political culture with no experience in that. It will be good for us. Plus lots of wincing and entertainment.

I can't believe Rae would agree to this.  Or Dion for that matter.  The better move is to have an interim leader, like Goodale, until the new Liberal leader is chosen.  And then, depending on how the coalition is governing, going to new elections.

Dion has absolute veto power over any attempt to replace him- whether its another true interim Leader like Goodale or Iggy.

And Rae has de facto veto power over installing Iggy. Doesn't matter how much of a majority of Caucus members Iggy could pull together- even by themselves neither Rae or even Dion are sufficiently isolated to be bullied or rolled over, let alone the internal tractuion they have with no more than a single discusssion between them.

And Iggy attempting a coup would be showing FAR more signs than a single source talking to a reporter. That cannot be done quietly.

Reporter Ivison got spun by the Ignatieff camp who do not want a coalition led by someone else. He does not seem to have confirmed his story with other sources. The Nat Post is dumping on the coalition, Duceppe's Useful Idiots they call it. So the reporter works for the paper, and is happy to supplement its line with a scoop, that is being denied by Rae, and makes no sense. You cannot have a leadership contest, and have one of the contenders become PM.

The Ignatieff camp was leaking disinformation on Friday that the NDP was insisting they wouldn't accept Dion as PM and he'd have to step aside - something the NDP quickly denied and attributed to an unnamed Liberal leadership campaign.

Sources close to Mr. Ignatieff said he was "not wild" about the idea of forming a government propped up by the separatist Bloc. They said he was inclined to accept the concessions wrung out of the Tories on its fiscal update and allow the government to survive.

"My gut is Michael will cause all this to fall apart. He doesn't like this," said the insider.

http://tinyurl.com/5pmvh3

I still think that if Ignatieff is the one who causes this to fall apart - it would destroy his chances of winning the leadership since so many Liberals would never forgive him for that.

I heard on the radio that Rae denied that a deal had been made to install Ignatieff and he said that the Liberal CAUCUS would decide that. CAUCUS!! Well apparently the Liberal caucus is meeting today and supposedly most caucus members are Ignatieff supporters so if its up to the CAUCUS - then either Ignatieff is in or they pick a pro-Ignatieff interim leader.

A lot of non-Liberals wouldn't forgive him for it as well.

The self-interest in preserving the Harper government taints the article, nonetheless: 

"Liberal leadership candidate Michael Ignatieff is unlikely to support the coalition deal being negotiated by lame duck leader Stephane Dion -- a decision that would doom the opposition parties' attempt to bring down the government next week in a vote of no-confidence in the House of Commons.

A person close to Mr. Ignatieff said that any deal with the Bloc Quebecois and NDP struck by Mr. Dion would be a "poison chalice" for the next leader."

http://www.nationalpost.com/news/story.html?id=1016753

Not to mention the fact that this would abandon the centre-left field to the NDP. "I tried to work with the Liberals, I even offered them a coalition. Some of them turned out to be Conservatives with red ties."

I agree with Stockholm, Ignatieff loses big if the coalition idea is scuppered by the Liberal caucus. Rae is getting the better of him as the voice of "party unity." Reporter Ivison for the Post has dropped the Ignatieff for PM line, and replaced with the no coalition now according to Ignatieff. We wait for the next dispatch from the Post guy with the direct line to the Ignatieff spin doctor.

I don't understand the rush to get a new leader in in time for the coup. The seats won by the Liberals were won under Dion's leadership. It makes some sense to keep him as interim leader, perhaps getting in writing from him that he will step down when the time comes. It not only keeps the situation more stable, but I have this feeling, based on little factual evidence, that Dion might not be a bad leader for a coalition. I don't think he is the type who needs to be the ultimate Fearless Leader making all the decisions and taking all the credit. Some others, however, might be.

I would think the others would want to wait to see what becomes of this. Spring is not that far off. Dion would be the best to take this shaky alliance into the spring and the leadership convention. As was planned.

Partly it's the optics of the guy who Canadians overwhelmingly rejected becoming PM but I think mostly it's that Iggy doesn't want anything to stand in his way.

Yes, the optics would be bad.  He's announced he's stepping down anyway.  So what's wrong with advancing the date by a few months.

Because it's being done in such a frenzied manner, giving people little
time for thought. This is rarely a good way to do things, and may just
lead to more fracturing. Also, having the time we thought we were going
to have would give the contenders that much more time to blunder if
need be, to reveal to us their true colours, and for possibly a new and
better solution to arise. Just my thoughts.

Dion needs to step aside for the good of the country.

A Liberal friend of mine says that Goodale is associated with the Rae camp- if that is true (which is probably subjective depending upon which LIberals you talk too)- then Dion would be a more honest broker/interim leader until the race.

Dion stepping aside at this point wouldn't do much good- the two former roommates appear intent on taking the leadership to May 2. I think having another interim leader, even if one could be found who isn't perceived as associated with either camp- wouldn't be adding or removing any poison from the chalice of power passed from an interim to a new leader.

I agree with jas- time to see the how the leadership candidates respond in a coalition gov't would be nice.

 Personally, I think Rae has so much to gain by having a chance to prove his statesmanship (esp. vis a vis the NDP caucus, and the left wing of the Liberal party), that there is no way he'll let Iggy take power. Having the support of 50 of 77 MPs (and where exatly does this figure come from, other than Iggy camp spin?) won't allow Iggy to grasp the reins. Iggy would need to call riding presidents, youth leaders etc....and he can't do that quietly and without upsetting a chance for a coalition.

Question for those who know NDP popular, and federal caucus support better than I:

There is a perception that Rae is 'persona-non-grata' to dippers...but how long would that last in a situation where they sit down in caucus together and everybody has two swallow the lesser of two weevils?

Like everyting else right now, especially the general mood of Canadians, Dion will be judged on what people see coming, not on what a hapless choice he looked like before and in the election.

It will not be an advantage going into a coalition government with a question mark as PM. But as has been said in a lot of ways, this is MUCH less about the PM and it will be good for politics of any kind to back off from focus on the leader. dion is taylor made for that.

And look what Dion's self interest is. He simply cannot be PM past May. In a way that takes a burden off of him. If he becames PM he will already have more affirmation and vindication than he stood a chance for. More than that: he's playing to a legacy- which doesn't require him competing and winning over his colleagues.

And he's the perfect antidote to the soon to be semi-despised Harper. He stands to be re-assuring when the only people after his throat are the now discredited Conservative opposition.

Goodale could also fit a lot of those criteria. But people are saying NOT Dion. NOT Dion doesn't mean you get to choose who else.

And Goodale is not without problems. It would be difficult at best to unequivicolly bind Goodale to resigning in May, the way Dion can be effectively bound. And that binding is an absolute necessity for the Liberals internal dynamic, and hence for there participation in the coalition. You can compell the Liberals to table their race for the moment- and force Iggy to live with no longer being in the state of nearly having the leadership in the bag- but it simply is not feasible to expect them to throw into uncertainty whether there is going to be a leadership race. They need someone who they can have nearly complete confidence will be only the interim leader and PM.

NDP Caucus members will live with Rae fine. PM or not, they are going to be dealing with him a lot. Thats life. I'm sure they already know that.

Politics is like other work: you spend a lot of time with colleagues in your own party, let alone the others, many of whom not only would you not choose to associate with them, but you don't like a lot of things about them.

This reminds me of the King Solomon story except backwards.

In the story, two women come to King Solomon each claiming that the baby is theirs. They can't agree so Solomon says he will cut the baby in half. The 'real' mother says she would rather let the other mother have the baby than see the baby killed.  Solomon recognizing that the woman willing to give up the baby loves it more, awards her the baby. 

In this scenario, Ignatieff has basically threatened to destroy the entire coalition unless he is the PM. Dion and Rae loving Canada more than power, have graciously decided to step down and let Ignatieff have his way, rather than let the coalition be torn apart, and let Harper bludgeon through his agenda. 

Let's just hope that this little powerplay doesn't establish Ignatieff as the Liberal leader in the minds of Canadians, and that the Liberal leadership contest is not dismantled or postponed indefinitely as a result. It would be a grievous error.

 You have no idea how negativel Dion is viewed by the Public? Dion stepping aside would do alot of good. It will prevent alot of harm to the coalition. It will put on a good face for Dion leaving. Go anywhere, and say Prime Minister Dion and see if you get a warm fuzzy smile. This turkey ain't gonna fly.  Don't do it!!! Be smart!!! 

Dion can take credit for building the coalition and leave with dignity. But don't allow for a minute of seat time as the Prime Minister.

It is BAD politics and I hope the LPC and the NDP recognise such.

Of course Harper could rebound with Dion as Prime Minister....... 

According to CTV it will be Dion until may 2. Who cares? the coalition deal is to last 2.5 years and by the time it comes to an end, Dion's four months as interim PM will be ancient history.

"According to CTV it will be Dion until may 2. Who cares? the coalition deal is to last 2.5 years and by the time it comes to an end, Dion's four months as interim PM will be ancient history."

Yup, it could always be worse. Imagine the media frenzy if Rae was made interim PM, in a coalition propped up by the NDP?

Actually, I think if you go to the 63% who voted ABC, and said PM Dion as leader of a Liberal/NDP coaltion...you would get an overwhlmingly warm response. Not really to Dion, but to the coalition as a a whole.

Who are those voters? Liberals, who will of course do anything to get power back, and will certainly swallow Dion for fourish months. NDPers, who are clearly getting a chance of a lifetime. Greens, many of whom have a crush on Dion for the Green Shift, and would probably see Dion as PM (Maybe with a Linda Duncan as enviro min?) as a golden opportunity to get a green shift actually done. and of course the Bloquistes, who have a grudging respect for him (which has got to be roughly equal if not better than how they feel about SH), and are really only in the game to bargain anyway. Dion did very well in the francophone leaders debates too (way better than the english ones).

I really don't think Dion is viewed negatively by the Canadian public at all. In fact, I'd say he is viewed as an honest, integral guy with a passion for the environment. Who happened to not do so well during the last election.

The NDP would not be interested in Rae as a leader no matter how statesman like he is. We just had an election where Rae was the "NDP battering ram" so, no we are not going to get all warm and fuzzy. Besides that, we have Rae to thank for the problems with electing NDPers. So no, we are not going to warm up to Rae.

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

Dion has been confirmed as leader of the coalition by Liberals leaving their caucus meeting that just ended.

This is how I see part of this coalition cabinet

PM – Dion’

Intergovernmental Affairs - Layton

Government House Leader - Libby Davies

Finance - Goodale 

Foreign Affairs -  Iggy  SoS  Paul Dewar

Justice - Scott Bryson  SoS- Megan Leslie

Environment - Linda Duncan 

Citizenship, Immigration and Multiculturalism -  SoS Olivia Chow

Heritage - Charlie Angus

Defense- Mulcair

Public Works – Bob Rae  SoS Irene Mathyssen

Indian Affairs - Jean Crowder

Fisheries and Oceans -  SoS Jack Harris

Agriculture - Wayne Easter  SoS Alex Atamanenko

Pulic safety - Mark Holland   SoS Dawn Black

Industry - Le Blanc? SoS  T Martin?

Human Rights- Hedy Fry or Dosanjh?

Health - Judy Wasylycia-Leis 

National Revenue - Martha Hall Findlay?

Human Resuorces - Hedy Fry or Dosanjh?

Etd because we only get six out of 24 and hopefully a bunch of SoS positions and hopefully no NDP to go the lesser portfolios I left out.

"watching the tide roll away"

Edward Blake's position in history is secure!

You really don't think Dion is viewed Negatively by the Canadian Public?

Heaven forbid people share that view within the LPC

OH CRAP!!!

DION LEADER OF COALITION

Bad public relations move.  But it might have been the only way to get Iggy on board.

The LPC have handed Harper a christmas present.

Yeah, an eviction notice from 24 Sussex Dr.

TERRIBLE PR. I can't wait for the fireworks.

How does DION staying on as LPC leader bring Iggy on Board? 

Dion was the only reasonable choice. There will be a new PM in May.

I think he was worried that another interim leader, like Goodale, could have put a crimp in his leadership plans.

This is good. The new Liberal leader will be strait-jacketed by the coalition for up to two years. Usually the first thing a new leader should do is seek a legitimate mandate and the Liberals won't be able to do that without serious political costs. They will also be led by a real lame duck, sock puppet in the interim- Dion's reward for leaving peacefully. Have fun with that one Liberals. Finally, during the coalition forming to May honeymoon (assuming there is one) period, Ignatieff, Rae, and Leblanc will probably be excluded from cabinet to avoid giving any one an "advantage." The NDP could need to take advantage of their absence and Dion's lame duckness by trying to hog the media spotlight in an attempt to set the "agenda for government."

 I think who the NDP picks for cabinet is partly dependent on which ministries they got. I am also working on the same assumption as everyone else that the NDP will aim for gender parity. Previous cabinet experience and bilingualism will count for a lot. In terms of regions, the NDP has to give Northern Ontario something because it holds virtually all the seats there. BC probably needs some representation because 10 of the NDP seats come from there and there are still seats to be won in BC. I think BC is mildly likely to get the shaft though, because the NDP has a House Leader and Assistant Deputy Speaker from there. That being said, I'd be pleased with the following:

HRSD- Godin

Heritage- Mulcair

Environment- Duncan

Health- Judy W-L

+ the two others 

I think it is telling that madmax is the only one here who expressed a problem with Dion becoming PM initially. He is not seen as a problem by most. Indeed, a coronation of Ignatieff would be far more problematic for most.

I believe the technical term is "lame duckitude."

That guy should be given a cabinet position sans portfolio and allowed  nowhere near another federal finance dept. The Liberals are already talking about Frank McKenna and John Manley participating in advisory roles on the economy. I think it would be a conflict of interest seeing as both of them are board members of two of Canada's largest banks. Those two are stooges for American interests. I'm not crazy about this coalition with the reLiberals already.

no, no- its lame duckiness

___________________________________________________________ "watching the tide roll away"

It's seemed pretty clear to me from the start that Dion was the most logical choice for PM.  If the Liberals had just declared someone else was their leader without a convention, that would have given the Conservative talking point about a coup d'etat that much more steam.  Plus Dion is on the left-wing of the Liberals, which would make it easier for the NDP and Bloc to work with him.  On top of that, it's already clear that he's stepping down in May, which means the Liberals now have time to properly sort out their leadership issues.

The coalition is sending the eviction notice, not the LPC.

This is a very forgiving forum for politicians such as Dion. That is not so true of the electorate. I am not alone with regards to Dion, not even in this forum.  I don't like the thought of Dion handing the keys back to Harper. As for Ignatieff, isn't a new leader coming on board in May? If it is Iggy, how will he be less of a problem? I didn't say any of the LPC leadership choices were anything to write home about. You can only do so much with slim pickings.  I await tommorrows coffeeshop talk.

I am adding some LPC thoughts from Liberal for Life Blog

Once thing is clear, the NDP and LPC are in the boat together.

This thread might actually be unique enough to keep going separately.  But if it starts getting off topic of the Liberal leadership and onto general discussion about coalition, we'll be moving to the coalition thread.

Let's continue here since this thread is getting long, and I wanted to consolidate this with the shorter one anyhow.