NDP federal candidates IV

Great news - Peggy Nash is running again.

Is that great news?  Unless she runs in a different riding, I don't think she will be able to win.  It's unlikely she can beat Gerard Kennedy in Parkdale-High Park.

She's a good candidate - passionate, intelligent and bilingual - but it will be hard for her to win.

It was close last time and it could be close next time too. Ignetieff seems to be even less attractive than Dion was. At the very least, if she runs it forces the Liberals to tie up resources in that riding. Is there an actual press release where it says she's running?

This looks like it.

http://www.phpndp.ca/

Peggy Nash to Run Again

http://www.punditsguide.ca/2010/01/peggy-nash-to-run-again.php

The Langley Federal NDP riding association selected their candidate this week-end. 

Piotr Majkowski will be facing lacklustre Conservative MP, Mark Warawa.

http://www2.canada.com/langleyadvance/news/story.html?id=1cba88d6-1583-4...

It actually wasn't close in the end last time.  It was expected to be, but Kennedy ended up winning by a decisive margin of several thousand votes.

Now that he is the incumbent, and with the Liberals well ahead of the NDP in Ontario in recent polls, I see it being an uphill battle for Nash.

Still, she must think it's a possibility if she is running again.

Rumour has it that Rob Moir may run in Saint John this time.

I think the point is that PHP was close enough and Nash and Kennedy each have enough of a personal following that it could all boil down to what the national trends are. There are a number of scenarios that could win it for Peggy Nash. I'm not saying that any of these things necessarily will happen but they could - and often times in politics its a matter of being in the right place at the right time.

1. Ignatieff could be a total fiasco on the campaign trail and turn off voters in droves. Not unlikely.

2. The Tory vote in PHP actually declined from 2006 to 2008 from 17% to 12%. What if they go back to 17% or higher and on top of that the 8% Green vote evaporates? Very possible

3. For a variety of reasons, the NDP campaign last election didn't resonate as well in Toronto as it did in most of the rest of the country. Next time things may be different.

Rob Moir ran a very strong campaign in Fundy Royal last time, but it's not a traditional area for the NDP. However with the NB Power sale issue reverberating, and our strong new provincial leader, Roger Duguay, really pushing the issue, plus the fact that the Liberals still have not renominated Paul Zed or put anyone else in his place, it could make for a good opening for Moir. Elizabeth Weir used to hold Saint John South provincially, I believe.

Yes, I suppose anything is always possible.  Look at what may happen in Massachusetts tonight - who would have thought that the Republicans would ever have been in contention to take over Ted Kennedy's seat?

What I'm wondering about for the Toronto ridings is Marilyn Churley going to run in Beaches-East York again, or is she going to let someone else in the NDP have a shot at it next time?

The latter--top contender being Barbara Warner (daughter of ex-MPP David Warner)

Marilyn accepted an appointment as a Justice of the Peace. In doing so, she ruled herself out of running for office (or even having a party affiliation).

Thanks for the information.  I wasn't aware of the latest development concerning Churley.  I think it indicates that she realizes that after 2 losses in Beaches-East York to Maria Minna that it wasn't in the cards for her to win.  The voters made it clear they prefer Minna.

Therefore, I think it is good that she has opened the way for a new NDP candidate to emerge in Beaches-East York.

I think she also wanted a regular job and income.  Her risky decision to resign her Ontario provincial seat to run federally a few years ago meant that she is without a regular income or pension.  As she said in an interview, the changes Mike Harris made when he was Premier mean that former MPP's no longer have a pension plan.

You'd have to be crazy not to accpet a job offer to be a justice of the peace. You get a six digit income and all you have to do is set a few bail conditions and perform some marriages. Its a dead easy job.

Yes, but people who are ambitious and have political blood in them like Churley would probably prefer something a little more challenging and intellectually stimulating.

I think she took the job because she has been without a regular income since stepping down as an Ontario MPP, but her preferred job is probably still to be an MP.

As a working class NDP supporter, I was immediately indignant thinking of some kind of municipal corruption giving this sinecure to the Party  brass, but then I looked and found that the province appointed her. 

http://www.attorneygeneral.jus.gov.on.ca/english/news/2009/20091002-jpto...

Debater, you mustn't judge NDPers by such Liberal standards.

If Marilyn Churley had wanted to, she could have run for Case Ootes seat on Toronto city council and it would have been a coronation and she would have earned about as much as she did as an MPP. I guess she wants to do something else for a change.

BTW: I was reading that there is a possibility that Judy W-L might run for mayor of Winnipeg. I guess if she did it would open up a supersafe NDP seat for some interesting new blood.

I also see that two people are duking it out for the nomination in Beaches-East York. http://www.beyndp.ca/ Matthew Kellway and Barbara Warner. Does anyone have any insight in the pros and cons of these two candidates and who people think is likely to win?

I see Warner all over Facebook. She has a very impressive resume seen from a distance (former legal counsel to the City of Oshawa for one thing, plus lots of environmental work). I don't know much about Kellway, but understand he's a riding association executive member. Anyone else able to fill in any more blanks?

I'm not sure what you mean.  I am not judging her by any particular standards.  Churley herself talked in the past about the effect of the Mike Harris cuts to her MPP pension plan.  I'm just pointing out that she needs to earn a living.

And as I've mentioned in the past, please be careful about using political labels.

Getting back to Parkdale--High Park, here are the electoral maps from the past four federal/provincial elections:

2004 Federal Election

2006 Federal Election [25]

2007 Provincial Election [26]

2008 Federal Election [27]

Glad that we have nice graphics these days.  The colour code certainly gives a nice visual interpretation of how regions vote.

What's interesting about Parkdale - High Park is that you can see the contrast between the provincial and federal elections.  The large swathes of red in the 2008 election show how well Kennedy did, whereas in the 2007 election you can see how Di Novo swept the riding provincially. 

And for those interested in Beaches--East York, here are the electoral maps from the past four federal/provincial elections:

 2004 Federal Election

 2006 Federal Election [30]

 2007 Provincial Election [31]

 2008 Federal Election [32]

Krago, it's really fantastic.  Thank you so much for contributing this work to our forum!

Matt Kellway beat Barbara Warner for the NDP nomination in Beaches-East York.

I'm not familiar with either of them.  Which of the two do you think was the strongest candidate?

I'm a member of the Beaches-East York exec. We had two really strong candidates running for the nomination, and both of them ran impressive campaigns. Both would have been great candidates, and Matt has a real chance of winning the riding next time. He is well known in the community and has been president of the local riding executive for the last few years. He has a background in labour economics and works for the Society of Energy Professionals. He is thus also an expert on energy and environmental issues and was co-chair of the group that fought the new gas fired generator in the Portlands.

Who's running in Scarborough SW?  Just wondering, because Warner ran there provincially in '03...

I had the same thought, so I looked it up.  Alamgir Hussein ran there last time, but so far it's empty this time around.

Mark Austin is seeking the NDP nomination again in C.C.M.V. at a nomination meeting this Sunday, January 31st.

Has anyone heard about either of the Quebec by-election candidates re-offering. 

I really hope Jean-Claude will stand again in Hochelaga.

I saw Jean-Claude Rocheleau marching right up at the front of the anti-prorogation rally in Montreal with Mulcair and Duceppe in a photo in the Gazette, I think it was.  Also, Layton was in Montreal late last week doing an event around the closing of the East End Refinery (whose workers he represents).  I imagine that will be a big issue next time around.

Good to know that Mark found it a good experience during the by-election.  I think I read that François Lapointe I think it was, was planning to run again in the R-de-L seat.

Thanks for the update on CCMV, David.  What's the latest in Dartmouth?

No news out of D.C.H., O.O.

I'll try to pick up any more buzz when I'm at the N.S. NDP Leader's Levee in Halifax in late March.  If I see Kevin there, I'll ask him about it.

Unless something changes by then, which I doubt, you can expect Kevin to be non-commital at best.

There is a candidate committed to running in DACH but his/her name cannot be released right now ;)

Here's more bad news for the Liberals as the Left Coast grapevine is reporting that there may be a contested nomination for the NDP in North Vancouver. As a result there will be a stronger than usual showing by the NDP in North Vancouver, which will definitely put the Liberals out of contention in this right wing, and currently Conservative-held riding. Michael Charrois, the previous NDP candidate will be contesting the nomination against........ 

Considering he came in 4th with 9.4% of the vote, it's not surprising there are New Democrats who think they could do better than that. By comparison, the NDP got 13.2% in 2006 & 15.8% in 2004.

In other words, you are hoping that the riding is won by the Conservatives.

Are you finally admitting that you are a Conservative supporter?

Honestly, Debater, this is really getting tiresome. Are you going to apologize for Liberals running candidates in Saskatoon-Rosetown-Biggar, Palliser,Vancouver Island North, Surrey North, ... (I could go on)?

The point is that each party puts forward its best candidate, believing that it is best able to represent the interests of the voters in that riding, and then they let the PEOPLE decide. Running against a Liberal no more makes an NDPer a Conservative supporter, than running against a Dipper makes a Liberal an a**hole.

That's not what I was saying.  And don't you find NR tiresome?  There was a snarky undertone to his post.  What he was basically saying is that he hopes the vote split screws over the Liberals and gives the riding to the Conservatives.  There's nothing wrong with the NDP running there, but it's hoping that a Conservative wins that makes NR's post disturbing, yes?

Of course not. No one needs to make them one.

OK, everyone back to your corners.

I'm as partisan as anyone on this board, but name calling doesn't help anyone's cause.

Debater, you've called NR a troll, a Conservative, and now tiresome.  Stick to promoting your party and/or attacking the NDP and Conservatives and you will do a lot better job making your point.

As an aside, most NDP candidates run to win, even if the odds are slim.  No one in the NDP sees it as their job to make sure Liberal MPs keep their job.

Scott - I admit I lauged at your last post, but you don't need to pile on.

I didn't say that the NDP has to help the Liberals win.  I said that NR was saying he basically hoped the Conservatives won.  

Obviously parties can be proud to announce that a candidate will be running in a particular riding - that's what the Beaches-East York NDP did above when they announced their candidate in a positive way.  What NR said was that he hoped a vote split would prevent the Liberals from winning and give it to the Conservatives.

Do you see the distinction?

And I was called a troll on another thread, perhaps you didn't notice.  I was also called tiresome above.  And most ridiculous of all, I was called sexist by remind for quoting an article in the Edmonton Journal about the NDP painting an orange pumpkin in a sea of blue in October 2008.  I would like to see an apology for that one.

Btw, I don't like the comment about "promoting your party".  I have said many times to stop labeling me as a Liberal when I am a Liberal-NDPer, and it has still continued.  I have tried to foster joint Liberal-NDP co-operation, but it is becoming difficult.

Debater, your idea of cooperation between the Liberals and NDP is for the NDP to know its place and defer to the electoral entitlement of the Liberal party.  You can't possibly be surprised that this attitude is not well received here.

Just like the Liberals take the Canadian voters for fools, Debater similiarly takes the posters here for idiots. 

Debater uses the ole Mulroney tactics - throw enough mud against the wall and at least some of it will stick. Debater fits the Liberal mold to a "T".

I'm not sure if they have had their nomination meeting, but the probable Liberal candidate in North Vancouver, who is well intentioned, is a friend of mine. And  the Greens, had they half a brain, would have made him their national leader, but it's way too late for that. 

Realistically though, Michael Charrois, who definitely is, and his competition for the NDP nomination is as well,  superb candidates for the NDP, but alas, the federal election in 2011 will not produce NDP winners on the North Shore of Vancouver.  

What I thought was reasonably clear, before Liberal con artists twist the meaning of other people's words, was that the NDP will be so strong in North Vancouver that Saxton, the Conservative incumbent, will coast to an easy victory over the Liberal candidate no matter how good the Liberal candidate is.  Sad but true.

But carry on Debater with your absurdities.

And honestly, triangulating the whole issue into the unilateral goal of "stopping the Conservatives" is about as sophomorically reductivist a way of playing the electoral politics game as one may come...

"I have tried to foster joint Liberal-NDP co-operation, but it is becoming difficult."

...especially since Ignatieff decided a year ago that he would rather let Harper govern indefinitely than have the Liberals take power and have to involve the NDP in government as well. It shows that in the Liberal party its a higher priority to make sure that the NDP has any share of power than to get rid of Harper. How can you bother with a party with an attitude like that?

NorthReport, who is the other NDP nomination candidate besides Michael Charrois? Or is that not public yet? Also, is the likely Liberal candidate you're talking about James Stephenson? Is the former Liberal MP Don Bell running again?

The NDP has held part of North Van provincially before, if I recall correctly, and had a very strong candidate there in the recent provincial election.

North Vancouver

I'm not sure if it's official yet about the 2nd candidate for the NDP so I'd prefer to keep it quit until it is, but the application has been submitted to the decision-makers who do the vetting. 

Jim Stephenson who had secured the nomination for the Greens in Sea-toSky last election, but stepped aside for that Liberal clown who jumped ship to the Greens and put May into the debates fiasco, was running for the Liberal nomination. I thought the Liberal nomination meeting was late last year but perhaps it has not taken place yet.

Jim would be a great MP but it's just not gonna happen, because Michael or whoever wins the NDP nomination will be a lot better organized this time around.

The Conservative incumbent Andrew Saxton will definitely get re-elected, regardless who the Liberal candidate is. Don Bell is old news in the area now.

There is only one riding on the North Shore provincially or federally where the NDP has any chance whatsoever, and that is Vancouver-Lonsdale, a provincial riding, but the local NDP braintrust ran a non-NDP supporter candidate last time, former North Vancouver Mayor Janice Harris who was smoked by the new Liberal candidate 

Yamamoto will be doubly hard to beat next time running as an incumbent.

The stupidity just makes you want to cry.

David Schreck,

http://www.strategicthoughts.com/ [58]

 last won the riding for the NDP in 1996 I believe.

OK, thanks for the run-down.

By the by, I guess you kind of proved you're no troll with that post, too eh! ;-)

"but the local NDP braintrust ran a non-NDP supporter candidate last time, former North Vancouver Mayor Janice Harris who was smoked by the new Liberal candidate Naomi Yamamoto"

I'm confused by the idea that a non-NDP supporter could run. Does the party and the local membership not vett candidates? This can't be right.

This makes no sense. I assume that if you run in an election as an NDP candidate you are ipso-facto an NDP supporter. Unless you are suggesting that Janice Harris knocked on doors for 4 weeks and then voted against herself!

Janice Harris has been around the block politically having been a North Vancouver Councillor, a short stink as Mayor of North Vancouver, and also member of the Green Party. She has been at all candidate meetings where she has publicly trashed the NDP in the past. Janice wanting to become a MLA, but knew the Greens had no chance of winning. The NDP Lonsdale hierarchy wanted a name candidate but lost sight of the ball. They both fooled themselves, and both got what they deserved. With a different type of both candidate and campaign, the NDP might have won the riding, or at least come much closer to winning than they did.

As I suspected there will be at least two candidates vying for the NDP nomination in North Vancouver. Definitely a good sign for the NDP, and probably a sign of the times.

I just read that Jim Abbott the Tory MP for Columbia-Kootenay is retiring. While this riding went Tory by a wide margin last time - we should note that it went NDP a couple of times in the 80s and that some of it is NDP territory provincially. With Tory support in BC being in such a free-fall, I wonder if this could become an NDP target now that it is an open seat?

I'm sure it will be a target. And if Abbotts retirement is pretty much a surprise among locals, interested candidates in the NDP nomination will be popping out of the wood work if there isn't a nominated candidate already.

Oh c'mon North...she couldn't have been THAT bad in the job.

dupe post.

We hold or have held all 4 provincial seats in the area over the past 15 years.  I don't think we have nominated there yet, but last time we ran a visible minority candidate, retired paramedic Leon Pendleton.  According to his Facebook page, he was even endorsed by the local Green Party candidate, Ralph Moore, at the end of the campaign.

If he doesn't want to run again, there are some other fabulous potential candidates we could recruit in that area.  It would be competitive alright, but definitely doable.  And a HOTBED of opposition to the HST, I would imagine.

The NDP North Vancouver riding held its nomination meeting today, and former NDP North Vancouver candidate, the charismatic ACTRA member Michael Charrois, won the nomination over youthful Steve Springfellow before more than double the normal number of members that usually attend a riding nomination meeting. Following the vote results Steve expressed his desire to support Michael and to work with him to ensure the NDP has the best possible result in the riding in the next election which is expected to be held about a year from now.  Former NDP Vancouver-Lonsdale MLA David Schreck chaired the meeting, and Don Davies MP for Kingsway was the guest speaker. By the way Unionist, Don Davies made it quite clear when questioned at the meeting that the NDP policy is to withdraw our troops from Afghanistan. 

The Winnipeg South Centre NDP has nominated Dennis Lewycky as its candidate for the next general election.  Dennis brings to the riding his extensive experience as a researcher, communicator and organizer for governments, NGOs and unions here in Canada and around the world.

Check out his website at http://winnipegsouthcentre.ca

any relation to Laverne Lewycky who was NDP MP for Dauphin in the early 80s?

No, Dennis is no relation to former MP Laverne Lewycky.

Golly, I had the very same thought, Stockholm.  We are dating ourselves, I'm afraid !!

Peter Thurley is running in Kitchener Centre.

Peter was recently recognized by The Waterloo Region Record (yes, they call it that now) as one of The Top 40 Under 40 (see page 19).

Yeah, we won Kootenay East (now Columbia Kootenay) during the 1970's and into the 1980's but that section of the Kootenays has become more conservative since that era whilst, on the other side of the Kootenay Pass, the West Kootenays have become much more entrenched for us.

Cranbrook, the largest centre in the East Kootenays, has always leaned centre-right and the unionized coal-mining workforce in the Elkford Valley (Sparwood, Elkford, and Fernie) also votes Con - akin to the unionized forest sector in Prince George. The combined Lib/Con vote provincially was about 61% in the provincial riding of Kootenay East.

Albertans consider the Invermere Valley their cabin country and backyard and that forms a portion of the Columbia area. Golden and Revelstoke also have large ski resorts under development catering to Albertans, which also comprises part of the Columbia portion of the riding. Norm MacDonald, our provincial MLA in that area is quite well-liked and there is an anti-provincial Lib/Gordo element in that area.

In any event, the Cons won Columbia-Kootenay by a 60% - 23% margin over the NDP in 2008 and that's a huge margin for anyone to overcome. It would be best to focus on keeping what we have and looking at taking seats, which were close contests last time around.

The Cons apparently have local Lib MLA Bill Bennett (a Reformatory) interested in running for them as well as the mayor for Cranbrook and the mayor for Sparwood.

Oddly enough, our candidate Brent Bush (2004/2006) will now be running for the Lib nomination in the riding. Turncoats everywhere.

http://www.kamloopsnews.ca/article/20100226/CRANBROOK0101/302269969/-1/C...

Just a comment to both sides of the great troll debate-- there are obviously three attitudes among NDP supporters with respect to other parties and none of them disloyal. When criticizing those who are displaying one of the other attitudes than the one you hold there is no need to assume the person is being disloyal to the NDP as all three points of view are held with an NDP focus and for the purpose of the best possible result for the NDP. The three are:

1) those who are solidly NDP but beleive that the Liberals are better than the Cons as the NDP can sometimes push them in the right direction and can help the NDP achieve its policy objectives at times. As well they see the puspose in stopping any potential for a Con majority or in some case a Con government.

2) those who are solidly NDP and beleive that the Liberals lie and cheat their way in to a centre left constituency while they actually occupy that space to the benefit of the rigth wing. They beleive the Liebrals must be broken and destroyed for the NDP ever to take power and any Liberal loss is a step in the right direction towards achieving a more honest-- and more polarized clear chocie between NDP progressive and Conservative capitalist positions. The Liberals by masquarading as progressives are less respectible in some respects than the Cons who at least don't go runnign after people who beleive in what we believe in to steal their vote. Some have even called the Liberal Party the Bait and switch party.

3) those who are solidly NDP and really could not give a damn about where teh other parties are and think it is a distraction. They want the NDP just to present its best policies and fight to win any seats it can and influence whatever government is elected.

All three are legitimate and I held all three positions and can move from one to the next in a given day depending on how I feel.

Can we please not accuse NDPers of being disloyal simply because they have different ideas about what outcomes for other parties are relevant or helpful to NDP interests in particualr or NDP principles and policies in general. That is tiresome.

I have my differences with North Report but there is no damn way that North Report is anything other than a loyal NDP supporter. But at the saem time North Report, it is important to recognize that those who may feel that a stronger Liberal party and a weaker conservative party may serve the NDP best in the next election. I can see the merits of all three positions and wish I knew the answers for certain.

I alternate between detesting Liberals and detesting Conservatives most. I think that has as much to do with whichever I ehard last as anything else.

I'm rather amused by the reasons this Brent Bush gives for switching to the Liberals:

"Even prior to the 2006 federal election, I had grown disillusioned with the direction Jack Layton had been taking the federal NDP. The Party had become much more urban oriented at the expense of it's rural CCF roots."

OK, if he thinks the NDP under Layton is too "urban-oriented" - what with having a caucus that is packed with MPs from northern and remote communities many of whom voted to scrap the gun registry - let's see if he likes it any better in Michael Igantieff's Liberal party - which by any objective standard is the quitessentieal "eastern urban elite" party!!

"At the same time, Jack Layton has created a cult of personality around himself that I could no longer support. Bush says when Layton supported the Harper government in Parliament in Sept 2009, he resigned from the NDP."

Did anyone tell him that Ignatieff and the Liberals have supported the Harper government 81 TIMES compared to the NDPs 1 - most recently in deciding to support the Flaherty budget!

The guy sounds like a bit of a malcontent who is grasping at straws to justify his decision.

BTW: I really hope that the Tories nominate Bill Bennett to run. A provincial byelection in Kootenay East would be a great opportunity for the BC NDP what with Campbell's extreme unpopularity!

The past-Tribal Council Chief of the Federation of Saskatchewan Indian Nations, Lawrence Joseph, has announced his intention to run for the NDP nomination in Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River.  He has also been a municipal councillor and school board trustee in Prince Albert.

Here's the story in the Star-Phoenix.  So far, with Tania Cameron in Kenora, Crissy Sinipole in Sarnia, Lewis Cardinal in Edmonton Centre, and perhaps some others I'm not remembering, it's looking like the NDP is going to have a really strong slate of first nations and metis candidates.

Great stuff OO, thank you for the heads up and i find it interesting  contextually given other events occuring.

I still think the Orange team stands a chance. Though of course I'd agree that this seat is a second tier target. I think, to some degree at least, Bill Bennett's re-election was bolstered by three things. A) he's a Cabinet Minister in the Prov gov't. B) He was also the incumbent. And C) I also distinctly remember a bit of race bating vs. his NDP challenger (a member of a local First Nations). Also, let's not over state the ability of condo owners (many of whom are rich vacation home owners) to influence the election. Unless this is like the Vancouver-False Creek of the interior, which I'd then wonder what these people do for a living.

I just read in the 'Wall Conservative one-term wonder' thread that First Nation's Chief Lawrence Joseph will be the NDP candidate in Desnethe-Missinippi-Churchill River.

Does anyone think what his chances would be, given that there's a pseudo-Conservative party in power in Saskatchewan provincially?

That riding has swung all 3 ways within the last 20 years. Provincially the NDP holds a lot of the terrain. Getting organized early would appear to be key, as there's a lot of ground to cover. Gary Merasty won it for the Liberals on an increased turnout, so I'd have to assume that getting the aboriginal communities organized (and properly registered on the voters list) would be job one there.

It is all but offical now that popular former Nova Scotia NDP provincial leader Robert Chisholm is going to run for the Dartmouth - Cole Harbour seat held by Mike Savage.

I've been hearing it as a rumour for a long time now.

But Thursday morning on CBC Radio's weekly report on provincial politics Jean LeRoche relayed running into Chisholm and asking if the rumours were true. Chisholm could easily have ducked or got too vague if he wanted, but answered "you know, politics is still in the blood."

The official announcement he is seeking the nomination is probably not far away. Though that could be delayed if the reaction to the new government's budget is worse than expected. Or other such timing considerations given that an election is not imminent.

Perhaps a colour-coded map of the riding from the 2008 election might provide some further insight into what I mean in terms of the political division between Kootenay-Columbia (the East Kootenays) and the "heavily-orange" eastern portion of BC Southern Interior (West Kootenays) on the other side of the "Kootenay Pass". Revelstoke is part of Kootenay-Columbia while Castlegar and Grand Forks are part of the West Kootenays.

The Saanich-Gulf Islands nomination meeting is set for April 24. So far, I believe Edith Loring-Kuhanga is the only declared candidate but I have heard rumours it may be a contested nomination.  The cut-off date for candidates to declare for the nomination is March 30th.  I have met Edith and I think she is very impressive - a First Nations activist and Saanich school board trustee, she has lots of local roots in the riding, unlike a certain E. May who is running for another party!

Very nice map, Centrist!  Is that by polling division winner for the 2008 federal?  Also, are the red bits over on the left Kamloops?

ETA: Oh, and are the gradations in shading based on percent of the vote?

Hey, what're the lonely orange splotches in Kootenay--Columbia that aren't extensions of the orange blob on the east end of Southern Interior?  Elkford, Sparwood, Fernie?

OO: The red bits way on the left are more likely to be the Whistler area (some of them, anyways); you'll notice a mass of black that clears out into lines as you go further east, which I'd bet is the Lower Mainland.

Neither that or Kamloops. Have to go get a map to say what it is.

wow WCL, thanks for this heads up, this is really good news if she wins...

I was wrong. Red bits would be Whistler.

So, no anomalay there.

KenS... does Robert live on that side of the harbour now?

Well that makes sense then, since the Liberal candidate there last time was the mayor if I'm not mistaken.

Kamloops used to have a decent Liberal vote, but it fell away to the Conservatives last time.

perhaps Kamloops south, but not Kamloops north,  Summerfeld who ran in the north for the Libs, is a lawyer.

Harbour, what harbour? What Robert? Oh, NS not BC.

Robert Chisholm lives in Porters Lake [east of Dartmouth], not that it matters really.

I see I neglected to mention that Robert Chisholm lives in Sackville - Eastern Shore, where Stoffer is MP.

The map is not mine. It's from somewhere else on-line but yes the map is apparently created from polling divisions based upon party victory margins with the differing shading levels.

And the red/green portions on the left of the map are from the Whistler/Pemberton areas. Kamloops is the riding touching Kootenay Columbia at its northern top and Kamloops includes that poll striped blue/orange. The problem with these maps is they don't show detailed NDP strength on the north shore of Kamloops, for example, due to the small area and population density.

Threads - The orange splotches in the middle of Kootenay-Columbia are "probably" Golden and Kimberley.  Elkford, Sparwood, Fernie are the dark blue area in the Elkford Valley adjacent to the AB border and below that Green splotch on the AB side.

BTW, the poster "Krago" here posts the best colour-coded constituency maps that I have ever seen.

Detail: Pemberton is in Chilliwack - Fraser Canyon. And that little orange dot to the north of [red] Whistler would either be Pemberton or the nearby reserve [don't remember name]. The latter might be part of the big [low population] orange area.

Is there a nominated or known likley candidate running against Chuck Strahl? I know he is up to 3:1 over the NDP, but he can't be too many years from retirement, and as unlikley as it may seem now, it may not be that far off this riding following the trend of others shifting substantially from blue to orange.

Yes, I know what Chilliwack and surrounds are like. Notwithstanding that....

Probably won't make much of a difference, because the NDP in 2010 isn't the same as the NDP in the 1970s, which was viable in these parts.  OTOH I can picture the Hope/Fraser Canyon/Pemberton polls redistributed away into a more congenial entity...

This won't apply to the next election, but in the election after that BC will get a bunch of additional seats and it could be that something news gets carved in the interior that is winnable for the NDP - though i think its more likely that we ebenfit from a new seat on Vancouver Island.

Tisha Kalmanovich acclaimed as NDP candidate in Kelowna-Lake Country:

http://www.kelownadailycourier.ca/top_story.php?id=251665&type=Local

That also opens another possibility. There has been some murmurings that Stoffer might run for mayor of Halifax and depending on the timing of the next federal election, that would create vacancy in his seat.

The next municipal election date here in Nova Scotia won't be until October, 2011, so a more likely indicator that Peter is thinking of trying for mayor would be if he decided not to contest the next election.

If that were the case, either Robert or former NDP M.L.A. Kevin Deveaux would be ideal replacements.

Stoffer is running again federally, I'm told.

He is nominated. So it would be a question if anything has changed. Unless you know of something that he says- "thought of that, but I'm sticking with running again", then 'he's running federally' is not definitive.

I believe the Nunziata case settled that if a MP declares as a candidate for nayor, they have to resign their federal seat.  It makes no sense for Peter to give up his seat to run in an October 2011 mayoralty race and he would probably be a candidate in any federal election held in 2010 or early 2011. After that, he could might let the riding association  schedule a new nomination meeting  in early 2011 and he can hold on to his seat until he is ready to declare.  Within six months of his resignation, there would have to be a federal by-election date set..

But Nunziata wasn't an MP by that point in time 2003, and he didn't have to resign he was defeated in 2000.

Whatever must happen,  or does not have to happen, formally- Peter Stoffer cannot run in the next federal election and then say he's going to resign and run for Mayor. If he wants to run for Mayor, then he will inform people he will not be running again for MP. Now I really have no idea- no guess even- if he will want to do that.... but if he does plan to go for Mayor, I would think he will not annouce that he is not running again for MP until he has to [give the party and riding association decent time].

The last mayoral election in Halifax was in October 2008 meaning the next one won't be until October 2012 - tw and a half years from now. That adds a bit of a wrinkle as well.

Nice map. But I was refering to the Provincial scene and how that translates to the Federal one. Not that I think the federal NDP is anywhere near taking the seat now. Besides, I imagine that should the NDP ever want to form the Official Opposition, let alone a government, they would need to take what would be considered second (or maybe third-tier) targets in the here and now. So basically I think it's worth throwing a few dollars into that riding in the hopes that should things pick up for the NDP campaign, they'll have the resources to put some pressure on the Conservatives.

Though wasn't he making noises about running for mayor in 2000--that is, before his defeat?  (i.e. the election where, in the end, what passed for Mel's prime opposition was Tooker Gomberg)

Long