"Someone needs to take up the mantle again and reclaim Tommy Douglas' old riding."
That would be Jean Crowder, the NDP MP for Nanaimo-Cowichan.
I figure that with the freeze on nominations about to be lifted and with a fall election looking likely we might as a well have a thread about NDP nomination news.
I just saw that Noah Evanchuk - who has posted in babble quite a bit in the past is apparently planning on running for the nomination in Palliser - and that is a very winnable seat for the NDP - particularly since I think that in the next election, the low hanging fruit for the NDP will be Tory held seats.
http://accidentaldeliberations.blogspot.com/2009/07/noah-evanchuk-to-see... [1]
"Someone needs to take up the mantle again and reclaim Tommy Douglas' old riding."
That would be Jean Crowder, the NDP MP for Nanaimo-Cowichan.
I'd like to see Richard Marois run again in St. Lambert. He did a respectable job in 2008. I'm also curious to know how the NDP got from 1.8% support in 2004 to 16.4% in 2008 in the riding of Drummond. That riding literally went from dead last to 6th best for the NDP in Quebec.
ETA: I'd like to see one of the executive members on this page run for the NDP in Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe. It would be fun to see a true three-way race in this riding next time around and the Federal NDP needs to start contesting more of the francophone heavy ridings of NB, what with MP Yvon Godin as their public face and all.
ETA2: With a Conservative rookie MP representing Saint John. Maybe former NB NDP leader Elizabeth Weir could be enticed away from her public sector job to run for the NDP.
ETA3: Any thoughts on whether Taras Natyshak should run again in Essex? Looks like that would be a good riding to hope for a contested nomination in. Howard Hampton nominated in Kenora would be very nice (probably a pipe dream), even if Angus' riding would be a better fit. Michael Prue in Beaches-East York, even if NDPers would like to see Churley elected. Prue gets a lot of non-NDP votes and he could make the difference. His provincial NDP career aspirations seem stunted at present. He could use a career restarter and Churley might be grateful to trade federal for provincial politics, if she wanted to run for Prue's provincial seat.
As for Drummond, the NDP certainly moved up a bit from 2004 to 2006, but the big move came in 2008 when the Bloc incumbent Pauline Picard (R.I.P. just recently) stepped down. That seemed to be worth 10 points for the NDP, although it might also have had something to do with a new candidate for us from out of the media ranks.
The NB riding page you linked to does not render properly in IE 6, although it looks very nice in Firefox. It's a high-powered executive, to be sure.
Taras comes from a long-time NDP family in that area, and was raised right, if you know what I mean (Saskatchewan roots, too!). After 2 elections he has already bested former candidate, teacher David Tremblay's 2004 performance in vote share. I'm not sure what would be gained from replacing him now. The Liberals on the other hand face the choice of either running Susan Whelan again as a 4-time loser former M.P., or replacing her with a new candidate. This as I'm almost certain Conservative Jeff Watson's vote is about to drop off. Taras is out and about in the community all the time now. I hope he gives it another try.
Our 2008 first nations candidate in Kenora, Tania Cameron, apparently wants to run again, so while I love Howie, I don't see the benefit of running him there. Plus, I think his hometown of Fort Frances is in Thunder Bay--Rainy River.
Your thought on Prue is interesting. I've seen Marilyn Churley on TV a number of times now, and she has not impressed me. One time in particular on TVO's The Agenda she was so poorly briefed it was embarrassing. Maybe there's a record of community activism there that I'm not up to speed on from Ottawa. On the other hand, Prue's snippiness at our local all-candidates leadership debate was a bit of a turn-off too. Still I should give him a second chance, as he was very gracious at a later Ottawa event, and everyone has a bad day.
Against the only Conservative elected from Northern Ontario, Greg Rickford, aged 41.
A multi-talented fellow, he has degrees in Common and Civil law from McGill University, and an MBA from Laval University in Quebec City where he learned to speak French. He started by getting a Bachelor of Science in Nursing from the University of Victoria, and first moved to the Kenora region in 1992 working as an extended scope of practice Registered Nurse with First Nations Inuit Health Branch (Sioux Lookout Zone) in various isolated and remote First Nation communities. When nominated, he was a lawyer with a Kenora-based practice and a satellite office in Winnipeg, Manitoba. His practice areas included Corporate, Civil litigation, ADR, Health Care Law and consulting. His practice was confined to serving First Nation communities and their members. He is the only person I have ever seen sign himself "R.N., B.S.N., M.B.A., LL.B., B.C.L." To top it off, at McGill he also played hockey and was captain of Chico Resch, McGill Law School's intramural hockey team. He lives with his girlfriend of five years, Janet Pearce.
So why isn't this man in cabinet? There are 38 cabinet ministers, 37 of whom are MPs. That's one for each 8.3 of the 308 ridings. Northern Ontario has nine ridings. Five members of the class of '08 are in cabinet already: Gail Shea, Lisa Raitt, Peter Kent, Leona Aglukkaq, and Keith Ashfield. Why not Greg Rickford?
If he isn't in cabinet before the next election, Tania Cameron will have more evidence of Ottawa's neglect of the North.
My bad on Howie. Yes, Thunder Bay--Rainy River is the better fit. Also, babblers (or Ontario NDPers) are well aware that Prue is no saint, but he maintains a powerful loyalty among a lot of voters in his riding that don't vote NDP yet vote Prue. He is seen as a local champion and he is loyal NDP. I wonder what babblers think of Paul Ferreira being asked to give York South Weston another kick at the can. While I was disapointed with his provincial results, I'd like to see the NDP consider recruiting and providing some solid advice/maybe support to a campaign for Mohamed Boudjenane in the Toronto area. His credentials are laudable and I think he could make a useful contribution to the NDP caucus and House of Commons. Running against Kirsty Duncan in Etobicoke North might seem like a viable option but she could hard to beat. She shared the Nobel Prize with Al Gore for climate change and is a nice person. You would have to campaign on the issue of her (and maybe the Liberal's) effectiveness as representatives for this long-held riding.
In dream world, it would be great to see Stephen Lewis run in a Toronto riding. Seems like Parkdale-High Park, Toronto Centre, or Davenport could be options. I also wish Roy Romanow could be enticed to run for the NDP, but he seems like he comes from the wrong wing of the party to be comfortable in a Layton caucus. I could see him offering if a more right-of-party NDPer like Gary Doer were running the party. It's too bad the Lorne Calvert flirtations never came to much. Another NDP star I've long wished would reoffer is Mike Harcourt, but I believe his contention that he is burned off politics for good. Finding him a riding might also be interesting. Vancouver Centre would be the obvious choice, but given how unphased local voters can be by the big "star" candidates there, Vancouver Quadra might be worth a poll survey. Vancouver Kingsway would have been a good option but the NDP is fortunate enough to currently hold that seat.
ETA: For the NDP to make gains in the BC Lower Mainland, I think there going to have to try to recruit from the ranks of the NDP MLAs. Surrey North, Newton-North Delta, Fleetwood-Port Kells, and Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows are the (at least on paper) targets. Maybe Corky Evans could run in Kootenay-Columbia. Problem is Corky Evans=Nelson and Nelson is in British Columbia Southern Interior (which is currently held by Alex Atamanenko). The BC NDP did better in the Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon area than they do typically. A lot of this had to do with Harry Lali's candidacy but there was a general rise as well. As such, it might be a smart move to recruit the BC NDP candidate Gwen O'Mahony, that trimmed the gap with Campbell cabinet minister Barry Penner in Chilliwack Hope to run. Certainly can't hurt. I do think that the NDP still has room to grow in Chiliwack-Fraser Canyon, bible-belt notwithstanding. In fact, it was amazing how inefficient the BC NDP support was on election day when you gaze out across the Langley, Abbotsford, and Chilliwack bible belt. Maybe that was where Bill Tieleman's famous "axe the tax" campaign mantra bore fruit- yet flipped no seats. In other words, the BC NDP gained a bunch of votes in lower income, farther flung, conservatives areas where they had no hope of winning, and lost the more eco-minded, politically moderate, and risk averse suburban areas that were the key to victory. I always thought the axe the tax campaign was painfully hypocritical demagoguery.
Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo remains a Gordian knot. Nelson Riis remains the last prickly maverick that was able to hold it.
so while I love Howie, I don't see the benefit of running him there. Plus, I think his hometown of Fort Frances is in
Thunder Bay--Rainy River.
The NDP candidate lost alot of Ground in the 2008 election in Northern Ontario, during a period when the NDP were sweeping
Region. Tania running again will like end up with the same result. The NDP lost nearly 3000 votes, and the Liberal campaign stunk,
yet the NDP did not overtake the Liberals but lost ground. It sounds to me like Rickford, apparently a relative newcomer to the
region, appealed to many people in the riding. Regardless of whether or not he is a cabinet minister, it would take a major screwup
for the incumbent to lose this seat.
Canadian federal election, 2008
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Conservative Greg Rickford 9,395 40.46% +9.47%
Liberal Roger Valley 7,344 31.63% -4.89%
New Democrat Tania Cameron 5,394 23.23% -6.72%
Canadian federal election, 2006
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
Liberal Roger Valley 9,937 36.52%
Conservative Bill Brown 8,434 30.99%
New Democratic Party Susan Barclay 8,149 29.95%
At first I thought you meant Peter Ferreira (who had run for us this past time in Davenport) and was going to say an enthusiastic yes. I had hoped we would take that seat last time, but recognize it's at least a two-election commitment. The Liberal Mario Silva is the one who unseated Charles Caccia for his nomination as part of the Paul Martin goon squad, and while nominally a left, out Liberal, has betrayed the labour movement twice on his anti-scab private member's bill. I notice he had real trouble raising money for the last election, and was about $30K in the hole before the rebate. This caused him to underspend relative to Ferreira's campaign, and the Conservatives have evidently given up on the riding, raising less than the Green Party EDA last year.
But, in fact, you meant PAUL Ferreira who briefly won the provincial seat in York South-Weston after running twice federally and a few more times provincially and municipally. I'm not sure but on the surface it looks like our candidate last time Mike Sullivan did better on his first outing than Paul Ferreira did on either of his two previous federal tries. Given that Tonks may step down soon, we should really be picking a strong horse and sticking with it here. Sullivan is a national CEP staff rep doing negotiations with the CBC, and who had a 16-year record of local activism in the riding.
I've also been impressed with Mohamed Boudjenane, but we've also had a good candidate in Ali Naqvi in Etobicoke North. I find Duncan to be a real self-promoter and a horrible fit for the demographics of that riding, and while she has academic credentials I don't find her terribly sharp when I see her in the House or on TV. She was part of a big group that won the Nobel prize, and had a questionable role in any of it, if you read Gina Kolata (the NY Times science writer).
I wondered if Peggy Nash's bid for Party President was a prelude to her running again federally, or a segue out of running at all again. Now I would love to see a Stephen Lewis v. Bob Rae fight in Toronto Centre, oh what a righteous and fascinating thing that would be to watch. But honestly, hasn't the poor fellow earned the right to slow down a bit! Of course it would tie Rae down to his riding, and keep him out of the NDP - Conservative races out west where his primary purpose seemed to be to hike the Liberal vote and keep us out.
Perhaps Calvert could be enticed federally, now that his succession has been well taken care of. Nettie is apparently running again in Rosetown-Biggar, but what about Humboldt? I think a man of the cloth is the perfect person to take on Brad Trost right about now, and teach him a little bit about christian charity ;-)
Not much to add on Harcourt, but I'm just not sure the weekly travel would do a thing for his back. It's brutal for BC M.P.s.
Madmax, the issue of first nations turnout in Kenora is the killer. The ID requirements really hurt in that riding, and although Cameron was successful in at least getting Elections Canada to recognize a letter from the Band Council as proof of residence, you can also imagine that this was hardly a panacea. That section of the Elections Act truly has to be fixed (and SHAME on the Liberals for supporting it in the first place).
V.Jara, Kamloops was a heartbreak, but Michael Crawford is the right kind of candidate to take it (like Nelson, he's a college teacher). The Liberal vote there just tanked last time, and usually Kamloops is one of the few pockets of Liberal support in the BC Interior. I hope Crawford gives it one more go, because that might be the charm.
Can't comment knowledgably on the Surrey-Delta seats you name, but I thought that, given he was nominated at the last minute, Rachid Arab held as much of Penny's vote as you could expect in Surrey North running against Cadman's widow. Dona hasn't exactly been a strong presence in the House (nor I suspect in BC) since then, though, and might be easier to take on this time. The other seat to hope for would be Newton-North Delta, and I would have thought we had a strong candidate in Theresa Townsley, the deputy school board chair, but she was the only major candidate who wasn't Sikh, and perhaps that hurt.
I agree with you on Corky. Boy would he shake up Ottawa. I could see him as a real east-west north-south tag-team with Charlie Angus.
Anyways, I'm enjoying all this speculation if nothing more ... any other good ideas?
"I also wish Roy Romanow could be enticed to run for the NDP, but he seems like he comes from the wrong wing of the party to be comfortable in a Layton caucus."
I think that's a bit of a misconception. If Romanow doesn't run federally, it has nothing to do with who is leading the party - I think he just doesn't want to be an MP and live in Ottawa. I've heard that he and Layton are actually quite close and talk a lot and have very similar ideas.
The best riding for Stephen Lewis might be Beaches-East York and I don't know if he'd be a good fit for Davenport. I really doubt he has any interest in being a politician again though.
I've been hearing Avi might be interested in running one day. Avi Lewis and Naomi Klein used to live up the street from me, but they moved out a while ago, I believe to High Park.
The best riding for Stephen Lewis might be Beaches-East York and I don't know if he'd be a good fit for Davenport. I really doubt he has any interest in being a politician again though.
I was thinking BEY too for him--not least because it's next door to his old Scarborough political constituency (and wasn't the Lewis-Landsberg household right at the borderline?)
Well, PHP would seem an home-turf Avi natural, then. Though the "near-childhood turf" of BEY has a parallel compatibility--and, past "unbeatibility" notwithstanding, Maria Minna ought still to be easier pickings than Gerard Kennedy, under the circumstances.
Indeed, the "Lewis household" magic seems like the perfect formula for the NDP to reclaim the "Rae Democrat" urban left who fled with Rae in '08...
And when it comes to Kenora, remember the psychological effect of the Tories finishing ahead of the NDP in '06 (after finishing behind in '04) might have affected voter choices. (And maybe proximity to the Prairies subtly "validated" the Tories as an electoral choice here, i.e. awakened a certain "Provencher East" dynamic.)
Though I'm not sure whether the Tories ever saw Davenport in anything more than nominal terms. And keep in mind that the Green candidate (bike messenger activist Wayne Scott) was the closest to a party "star" running in the 416.
True, Sullivan did better; but paradoxically bear in mind that that was in great measure on the coattails of Paul Ferreira's provincial success. If not for Ferreira's "validating" the NDP as an electable choice, I suspect Sullivan might have achieved more of an 04/06-type result. (Which isn't an argument against either candidate, BTW.)
And re the "horrible fit", keep in mind that Duncan underachieved (48.6%, a lower share than even Borys W. in Etobicoke Centre) and the Tory candidate overachieved (cracking 30%) in '08.
And Naqvi was one of the few 416er NDPers to improve on '06, perhaps partly because of Duncan's deficiencies, but also because the party started taking the seat's pickup potential borderline seriously. In his previous tries, he was treated as a throwaway; not this time...
OK, now could I ask what needs to be done for a serious run in Lewis' old Scarborough seat ... albeit I realize the demographics have undoubtedly changed significantly in the interim. Our new 2008 candidate Alamgir Hussain held most of the earlier vote, but the Greens and Conservatives were also up a bit. It's still our best Scarborough seat, and the newly elected Liberal Michelle Simpson is a party hack who got appointed if I'm not mistaken and is singularly unimpressive (although she has a little mini non-story on Twitter right now about how she is publicly releasing her MPs' expenses). We hardly spent anything in there ... I wonder if a more serious campaign could pull that vote up from 18-23% into something competitive.
She may be unimpressive - but she sure beats Tom Wappell!
The NDP is going to do better next time in Scarborough SW, if only because the Tamil community was furious over Ignatieff's silence on the bloodletting in Sri Lanka. The NDP needs to leverage this disappointment in moving the seat into a competitive place. The party, which was in touch with the Tamil community throughout the Sri Lankan crisis, would be best positioned to figure out how to do this. It is also worth noting that any Tamil-targetting strategy is a tide that lifts all boats in Scarborough, given the community's prominence and dispersion across the region. I hope the party drops some change on a Scarborough area election hire that can either assist with media or organising and is perfectly erudite in written and spoken Tamil. In general, such an employee could help with shifting some votes in greater Toronto, Montreal, and probably a couple other cities. Anyone know how to find out what the top 10 Tamil ridings in Canada would be?
Also, looks like a contested nomination between Mike Sullivan and Paul Ferreira with both committed to back the winner 100% would be a good shot in the arm for the NDP riding association in York-South Weston. Similsrly a contested nomination in Etobicoke North between Ali Naqvi and Mohamed Boudjenane with the party promising some real support to the winner would be very interesting.
OK, now could I ask what needs to be done for a serious run in Lewis' old Scarborough seat ... albeit I realize the demographics have undoubtedly changed significantly in the interim. Our new 2008 candidate Alamgir Hussain held most of the earlier vote, but the Greens and Conservatives were also up a bit. It's still our best Scarborough seat, and the newly elected Liberal Michelle Simpson is a party hack who got appointed if I'm not mistaken and is singularly unimpressive (although she has a little mini non-story on Twitter right now about how she is publicly releasing her MPs' expenses). We hardly spent anything in there ... I wonder if a more serious campaign could pull that vote up from 18-23% into something competitive.
Strange: I was thinking of Scarborough, too, after my earlier posts--Scarborough SW most of all, of course (remember that John Harney held it federally once upon a time, and it's continued to be above-average since--does Dan Harris still have plans?). But at this rate, maybe not just SSW; look at something like Neethan Shan's impressive provincial result in Scarborough-Guildwood in 2007 as a guideline.
It may take a different strategy from Lewis/Harney days; but there's lots of untapped sleeper promise--and of course, being what it is, the Liberal "Bloc Scarberia" makes for one heck of a tempting target.
However, for the sake of assembling a voting "grand coalition", I'd recommend against over-milking the Tamil issue. Otherwise, you might face another Monia Mazigh-type anticlimax...
The best riding for Stephen Lewis might be Beaches-East York and I don't know if he'd be a good fit for Davenport. I really doubt he has any interest in being a politician again though.
I've been hearing Avi might be interested in running one day. Avi Lewis and Naomi Klein used to live up the street from me, but they moved out a while ago, I believe to High Park.
Stephen would be incredible, but I'm sure he won't do it. I'd take Naomi over Avi any day as a candidate - she is a global progressive icon and would be a likely winner in either P-HP or Beaches - EY, not sure about Davenport, but again, she would not likely want to run, unfortunately. Avi has some currency but not sure he could beat Kennedy or even Minna, he just doesn't have the profile, stature or depth that Naomi does.
I disagree about Avi. He would have an advantage over Naomi in that he would have less in print that could be brought up to paint him as a wild-eyed leftist extremist, which is what I suspect the tack would be if Naomi ran. Avi would also be running in a friendly riding and would start off with more political capital than some of the NDPers that have been able to win in the past- therefore at a slight advantage.
Madmax, the issue of first nations turnout in Kenora is the killer. The ID requirements really hurt in that riding, and although Cameron was successful in at least getting Elections Canada to recognize a letter from the Band Council as proof of residence, you can also imagine that this was hardly a panacea. That section of the Elections Act truly has to be fixed (and SHAME on the Liberals for supporting it in the first place).
V.Jara, Kamloops was a heartbreak, but Michael Crawford is the right kind of candidate to take it (like Nelson, he's a college teacher). The Liberal vote there just tanked last time, and usually Kamloops is one of the few pockets of Liberal support in the BC Interior. I hope Crawford gives it one more go, because that might be the charm.
Can't comment knowledgably on the Surrey-Delta seats you name, but I thought that, given he was nominated at the last minute, Rachid Arab held as much of Penny's vote as you could expect in Surrey North running against Cadman's widow. Dona hasn't exactly been a strong presence in the House (nor I suspect in BC) since then, though, and might be easier to take on this time. The other seat to hope for would be Newton-North Delta, and I would have thought we had a strong candidate in Theresa Townsley, the deputy school board chair, but she was the only major candidate who wasn't Sikh, and perhaps that hurt.
I agree with you on Corky. Boy would he shake up Ottawa. I could see him as a real east-west north-south tag-team with Charlie Angus.
Anyways, I'm enjoying all this speculation if nothing more ... any other good ideas?
I've long pushed for Corky to run federally, and I don't think it's that big a deal if he runs in a neighbouring seat, Corky is a beloved figure throughout the Kootenays (and most of BC for that matter). I also was disappointed in Newton North-Delta, not sure why we went down in 2008 compared to 2006 there. In terms of Surrey NDP MLAs, I can see Sue Hammell and maybe Jagrup Brar going federal at some point. Hammell has done it all in Victoria and might be up for a new challenge, Brar has enough presence to be competitive in Surrey North. I think Ralston and Bains are exclusively focused on the provincial scene, same for Getner in Delta North. Bob Simpson would be another good MP candidate in Cariboo-Prince George if he ever gets tired of BC politics.
Harcourt is like Stephen Lewis - never going to run again for anything. Jim Green might have been a good candidate for Vancouver Centre at one point but the post-Larry Campbell era has not been kind to Jim, and I think his time has passed. Heather Deal is a popular Vision Vancouver city councillor with a good green profile - she would be a strong NDP candidate for Vancouver Centre, no idea if she'd be interested. Kerry Jang is another Vancouver councillor who has long been courted to run federally, I think he was going to run in Kingsway at one point...another one to keep in mind down the road, maybe for when Libby retires from Vancouver East. Gabriel Yu and Victor Wong are other possibilties for federal candidates, don't know where they would run though.
We absolutely need to get some strong federal NDP candidates from the Indo-Canadian and Chinese-Canadian communities in the Lower Mainland, our current BC caucus is stellar but not at all diverse ethnically, and that needs to change soon.
Hasn't Michael Byers already announced that he wants to run again in Van Centre?
Surrey North would be the most obvious place where the NDP ought to try to get a good Indo-Canadian candidate. That riding is pretty heavily Indo-Canadian and the two provincial ridings that make it up went NDP by massive 70% margins. Dona Cadman won it pretty narrowly even though the NDP seems to have been stuck with a very low profile candidate who was only nominated at the last minute. With Tory support down since last year - that should be an easy pick up for the NDP. On top of that i heard somewhere that Dona Cadman is not enjoying being an MP at all and may not even run again.
Yes, Byers is running again in Centre, I was just speculating broadly on possible fed NDP candidates down the road. With Vancouver East and Kingsway already NDP and Quadra and Vancouver-South not competitive, Centre is the only remaining Vancouver riding for potential new candidates to run in. Byers is fine and I hope he wins but somebody like Deal might have a better profile and fit for this riding. Byers isn't nominated yet so there is always the slim chance of a contested nomination, would likely be healthy for the NDP if it was contested.
Good news about Cadman and Surrey North - but that is not the only riding by any means where the NDP should aggressively recruit Indo-Canadian candidates. Newton North-Delta, Vancouver South and Fleewood-Port Kells are among the many Lower Mainland ridings where this would be desirable.
She may be unimpressive - but she sure beats Tom Wappell!
Although you admit that's not a very high bar to climb, I'm sure ...
Good news about Cadman and Surrey North - but that is not the only riding by any means where the NDP should aggressively recruit Indo-Canadian candidates. Newton North-Delta, Vancouver South and Fleewood-Port Kells are among the many Lower Mainland ridings where this would be desirable.
Hear, hear.
Anyone know how to find out what the top 10 Tamil ridings in Canada would be?
Here's the top 25:
Scarborough - Rouge River (35083)
14680
Markham - Unionville (35045)
9400
Scarborough - Guildwood (35082)
8535
Scarborough Centre / Scarborough-Centre (35081)
8200
Scarborough - Agincourt (35080)
5920
Scarborough Southwest / Scarborough-Sud-Ouest (35084)
3335
Mississauga - Brampton South / Mississauga - Brampton-Sud (35047)
3310
Etobicoke North / Etobicoke-Nord (35024)
2870
Mississauga East - Cooksville / Mississauga-Est - Cooksville (35048)
2735
York West / York-Ouest (35106)
2695
Brampton West / Brampton-Ouest (35008)
2625
Bramalea - Gore - Malton (35006)
2450
Oak Ridges - Markham (35059)
2310
Toronto Centre / Toronto-Centre (35093)
2105
Mont-Royal / Mount Royal (24044)
2030
Don Valley West / Don Valley-Ouest (35017)
1995
Pickering - Scarborough East / Pickering - Scarborough-Est (35072)
1880
Mississauga - Erindale (35049)
1765
Don Valley East / Don Valley-Est (35016)
1760
Papineau (24048)
1695
York South - Weston / York-Sud - Weston (35105)
1690
Vaughan (35096)
1685
Saint-Laurent - Cartierville (24066)
1560
Brampton - Springdale (35007)
1380
Mississauga - Streetsville (35051)
1360
I pasted this as a table, but have a funny feeling it's not going to render very well. If not, I'll edit it and try again.
ETA: I wish this new babble interface were better at tables.
Nice work OO. Virtually all of those ridings are middle to low income places where the NDP is completely absent. Interesting.
Anyone know how to find out what the top 10 Tamil ridings in Canada would be?
Here's the top 25:
Is this just Sri Lankan Tamils, or Tamil Nadu Tamils as well?
How does Derek Lee keep Rouge River, the single most ethnically diverse riding in the country?
Is this just Sri Lankan Tamils, or Tamil Nadu Tamils as well?
Oh, sorry Wilf. Didn't see that question. The data I had did not break the category down further. It was a better breakdown than you get from the public riding profiles, but I'm sorry I don't know what the category includes off the top of my head. I'll see if I can locate the definitions.
I don't know about abscent, as in:
Scarborough - Rouge River, the NDP have increased their votes shares every election since 2000. In fact by 10% since 2000. You add 14 k worth of former Liberal voters to the NDP, and take that away from the Liberals and the NDP win. And the rest of the Scarboroughs showed increased trends towards the NDP vote share too. Still low but not abscent.
Same too for Markham, it has increased its support for the nDP by over 8% since 2000. However, it would be a 3 way race if the Tamil vote went NDP.
Didn't bother checking the rest as the trend seems pretty clear from 2000, NDP vote shares are going steadily up in most all that I checked.
*tks pundit's guide for the numbers.
OK, here's the full list of categories they used. I'm clearly less knowledgeable than you in this subject area, but scanning the list there do not seem to be separate categories as per the two you list.
How does Derek Lee keep Rouge River, the single most ethnically diverse riding in the country?
What do you mean how does he "keep" it? It's the safest Liberal seat in Scarborough from what I can tell - I expect that's how.
Note the sense of entitlement: it's not explained by the M.P. being particularly good, or having long roots in the community, or a notable record on issue X of concern to the community. No, it's that the seat belongs to the Liberal party. More so than any of the others in Scarborough. Now, why didn't we think of that.
No - that's not what I was saying, that is your interpretation. I was saying that the reason he wins it is because it's the safest Liberal seat in the area and therefore because he is the Liberal there, he wins it, regardless of whether he is a strong MP or not. That's the reality of safe seats for all parties.
It's just like when you are the Conservative nominee in Wild Rose - once you have the nomination, you have the seat. It's not necessarily fair, but that's just the way it works.
Indeed. So, while it is possible that some Sri Lankan Tamils have answered "Sri Lankan," and some Indian Tamils have answered "East Indian" or some answer that was classed as "South Asian not included elsewhere," I would expect that both groups have answered "Tamil." But "Tamil-speaking Muslims" in Sri Lanka do not identify as ethnic Tamils and are therefore listed as a separate ethnic group in official statistics in Sri Lanka, so I don't know how they would answer a Canadian census. I doubt many of them came here.
In South Asia you have the Indian province of Tamil Nadu, with a population of 66,396,000 as of July 1, 2008, and the Sri Lankan Tamils. There are also about 6 million Tamils in other provinces of India. There used to be about 2.5 million Sri Lankan Tamils in Sri Lanka, but many fled post-1983. From a population of fewer than 2,000 Tamils in 1983, they have become one of the largest visible minority population groups within the Greater Toronto Area. More than 25,000 were added between 1984 and 1992; in the 1991 census, Tamils were the fastest-growing ethnic group in Metropolitan Toronto. Canada's Tamil population is thought to constitute the largest Sri Lankan diaspora in the world and Toronto is "the city with the largest number of Sri Lankan Tamils in the world." Still, some Canadian Tamils came from other countries such as India, Malaysia, South Africa, Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago and Fiji. (In the 19th century, Tamils from India and Sri Lanka migrated to Singapore and Malaysia as army clerks and merchants.) In the second half of the 20th century, Tamils from India migrated as skilled professionals to the U.S., Europe and South East Asia. A sizeable population has settled in the Silicon Valley and New Jersey. How many came to Canada, I cannot say.
Also given the riding demographics, I wouldn't be surprised if the surname "Lee" has been advantageous, i.e. voters mistaking him for being of Chinese origin.
Though I kinda wonder how the NDP (and the Tories, for that matter) would have done in SRR in 2004 had Raymond Cho not run as an independent...
Also given the riding demographics, I wouldn't be surprised if the surname "Lee" has been advantageous, i.e. voters mistaking him for being of Chinese origin.
I believe Lee actually is of Chinese descent on one side of his family (as is John McCallum).
I disagree about Avi. He would have an advantage over Naomi in that he would have less in print that could be brought up to paint him as a wild-eyed leftist extremist, which is what I suspect the tack would be if Naomi ran. Avi would also be running in a friendly riding and would start off with more political capital than some of the NDPers that have been able to win in the past- therefore at a slight advantage.
And on top of everything, we mustn't forget Avi's TV career as the cornerstone to what makes him, perhaps, even more of a positively "known" quantity than Naomi. He truly does have a disarming magic combo of lefty-pleasing grey matter and "common reach"--the kind of stuff that'd easily bring "Adam Vaughan Liberals" on-side--and excuse my boldness, but if Avi were to ultimately replace Jack as federal NDP leader, the effect could be electrifying. Heck, even now, imagine an Avi versus Steve + Iggy in the throes of an election.
When it comes Avi's present home turf: barring a star like him, who would run against Gerard Kennedy? (Is Rowena Santos preparing for a federal run?)
Yes, Byers is running again in Centre, I was just speculating broadly on possible fed NDP candidates down the road. With Vancouver East and Kingsway already NDP and Quadra and Vancouver-South not competitive, Centre is the only remaining Vancouver riding for potential new candidates to run in. Byers is fine and I hope he wins but somebody like Deal might have a better profile and fit for this riding. Byers isn't nominated yet so there is always the slim chance of a contested nomination, would likely be healthy for the NDP if it was contested.
You think Byers is fine? He seems like a bit of a weak candidate from what I could tell last year, and a bit of a loose canon. He ended up not just losing to Hedy Fry, but also to Lorne Mayencourt and as a result he finished 3rd. That was the first time the NDP had finished 3rd in Vancouver Centre since 2000 after having had 2 second place finishes in 2004 and 2006.
I agree that it would be best for the NDP if it considered another nominee instead if it wants to win the riding. I think the NDP's best candidate so far has been Kennedy Stewart who did very well in 2004 and gave Hedy Fry her closet contest to date. Stewart was quite impressive in that election.
"And on top of everything, we mustn't forget Avi's TV career as the cornerstone to what makes him,"
Wasn't his show on Newsworld cancelled about 5 years ago? Honestly, I think people are drastically overestimating how well known Avi Lewis is among the general public and as for him attracting "Adam Vaughan Liberals" (whatever the hell that is) as a successor to Jack Layton - need I remind people that Jack Layton himself was originally supposed to attract "Adam Vaughan Liberals" until he learned the hard way that if you jump through hoops to attract the Annex/Cabbagetown types as national leader of the NDP - you might win one or two more seats MAYBE. Meanwhile, the vast majority of seats that are either NDP held or winnable are blue collar ridings where people are much more attracted to economic populism and a common touch etc...
Being leader of a party is not some easy little job where just any reasonably bright person can just "wing it". It takes YEARS of practice in politics at several levels to learn how to campaign, how to handle the media, how to have an encyclopedic knowledge of just about every major area of public policy etc... I could see Avi Lewis leader after the leader after the leader after Jack Layton - once the guy has actually run for something and been elected and been through the political ringer.
Stockholm makes an important point - sometimes people in a particular circle overestimate a candidate's popularity or recognition amongst the general public. The average Canadian probably hasn't heard of Avi Lewis. Most of us here are familiar with him but that's because we are amongst the political geeks. I used to watch Counterspin several years back and I thought he did a good job with it for the most part (even if he did deliberately like to get his guests riled up!) but many Canadians wouldn't be that familiar with him or that likely to vote for him.
Even Stephen Lewis, while better known and admired, is not known by as many Canadians of today's generation as he was when he used to be in politics. Although some people above suggested he would make a strong rival against Bob Rae in Toronto Centre, realistically I don't think he would have much of an impact there as that is a safe Liberal seat, particularly now that Rae is there. The NDP's best candidate there so far has been Michael Shapcott who ran a very respectable campaign against Bill Graham, but who nevertheless wasn't able to seriously challenge him. The NDP may even be losing a bit of ground in Toronto Centre right now as the Conservatives, despite their incompetent campaign, managed to finish ahead of the NDP there last year after the NDP had been the 2nd place finishers in the last couple of elections.
Michael Shapcott, or another local politician, might be the best candidate to try and improve the NDP standing in TC.
I liked his stance on shutting down the tar sands, but his view on Omar Khadr (getting a "Canadian trial") was outrageous and I don't really like how he seemed to be want to "Obama-ify" the party (i.e. saying how the NDP should be renamed the Democratic Party and how there were such similarities between Obama and Layton, etc. And he did much worse than Svend Robinson even though everyone seemed how Svend was such a bad choice and Byers would be such a star. Byers probably under-performed more than any other NDP candidate.
Actually, I think your judgment might be too political-geeky (and, if I may say this, aging political-geeky) for its own good. You're overlooking the fact that a whole lot of post-boomer average Canadians (our version of the "Obama demo", I suppose) know Avi Lewis from, or first clued into him through, Muchmusic. Not Counterspin. Muchmusic.
And that's not as shallow and Ben-Mulroney-of-the-left as it may appear--indeed, to those who lament what Muchmusic's become in recent years, Avi's an emblem of its "golden age", back when its programming was informed by certain McLuhanesque "smarts" rather than simple least-denominator pandering. Avi Lewis was a reason why smart kids watched Much back in the day.
Yeah, it may be glib to think of Avi as a proto-Strombo without piercings and with political provenance; but it proves he might have more inherent mass-conscious (and, indeed, voter-conscious) savvy than you're bargaining on. While it's convenient to raise the "yeah, we tried it with Layton, and look at what happened" issue, I think there may be a subtler boomer vs post-boomer (or, very roughly speaking, Hillary vs Obama) factor behind why Avi might actually be capable of succeeding where Jack didn't.
And while Avi's Much phase is years ago now--maybe that's advantageous, too, in that while it established his mass profile, he hasn't allowed it to over-define him, at the expense of all else...
I don't know if I'm missing something, but I didn't throw out Avi Lewis as a successor to Layton. I suggested him running for the position of MP. The reason I mention Avi Lewis rather than Naomi Klein is because I have read that Avi seems more interested in running for office, while Naomi doesn't seem interested. Either would be great.
If there's any competition for Byers on that front, it might be Tom King in Guelph, riding electoral history notwithstanding--and significantly in the cases of both Byers and King, an extra-strong and aggressive Green campaign did more than its part to gum up the works.
How Byers might have done if the Greens turned in a more nominal effort, who knows--probably would have reclaimed second place over Mayencourt, at the very least..
I don't know if I'm missing something, but I didn't throw out Avi Lewis as a successor to Layton. I suggested him running for the position of MP. The reason I mention Avi Lewis rather than Naomi Klein is because I have read that Avi seems more interested in running for office, while Naomi doesn't seem interested. Either would be great.
I'm the one who implied him as a Layton successor/substitute--but more for the sake of hypothetical argument and against the present LibCon competition, than as something to be imposed right here, right now. Though yes, for that to "work", it'd make much more sense if Avi ran for federal office and won in 2004, which'd have given him at least a bit of seasoning time...
I agree that Guelph and Vancouver Centre (and Central Nova for that matter) were two particular ridings where very strong Green campaigns probably damaged the NDP more than any other party - though across Canada, the increase in Green support in '08 probably damaged the Liberals most of all. All that being said, it seems clear that the so-called greens have peaked and are fast sliding into total irrelevance and will be lucky to get 3% of the vote next time.
I liked his stance on shutting down the tar sands, but his view on Omar Khadr (getting a "Canadian trial") was outrageous and I don't really like how he seemed to be want to "Obama-ify" the party (i.e. saying how the NDP should be renamed the Democratic Party and how there were such similarities between Obama and Layton, etc. And he did much worse than Svend Robinson even though everyone seemed how Svend was such a bad choice and Byers would be such a star. Byers probably under-performed more than any other NDP candidate.
Yes, that's why I said above I don't think Byers was a good candidate for the NDP. He performed less well than Svend Robinson and Kennedy Stewart and had the lowest NDP result in Van Centre since 2000. Stewart has been the strongest NDP candidate so far in that riding.
Byers also needs to quit while he's ahead. Even after finishing 3rd in Van Center he still was stirring the pot after the election by saying that Hedy Fry is getting on in years and probably wouldn't be running again so he would have a better chance next time. Now as far as I know, Hedy Fry has not officially decided what she is doing in the next election yet, but hearing someone imply she will be retiring soon will make it tempting for her to run again!
As adma says though, one thing Byers did have to contend with is the Adrienne Carr effect which did triple Green support in Van Centre and may have taken away from the NDP.
I have no idea how likely it is Hedy Fry will not run. But I can't imagine Carr not running in VC again, no matter what.
If its some other Liberal running, I can see Carr picking up enough Liberal votes that the NDP candidate, whoever it is, could shoot from third.
And if both Fry and Carr are running, which seems the most likely possibility, then I can't see the NDP candidate having a very good shot. But even IF that is true, prospective candidates have to position themselves regardless of whether or not Fry is running.
All of which means squat, would be my guess.
Surprisingly enough, even high spending Green campaigns generally do not run veru serious ground campaigns. Including May's 2 year running ULTRA high spending Central Nova campaign in that NOT category.
But Carr's campaign DID spend substantially on voter contact. I have no idea how effective they were- but regardless, most likely they learned from that effort.
Carr ran her campaign by claiming that she was running 2nd in Vancouver Centre and was able to fool enough people into believing it that even people like journalist David Aiken predicted that she would win the riding. In the end she finished 4th and so she did not have the result she wanted, but she did dramatically increase the Green vote share in the riding.
And yes, I believe Carr has already announced she is running there again. I haven't been able to find out yet what Hedy Fry is doing - all I know is that the Liberal nomination for Vancouver Centre has not been scheduled yet.
Given that polls haven't yet shown that kind of tailspin negative momentum and, in fact, the Greens are so far more or less holding on to their '08 share numbers, I wouldn't jump to that kind of (wishful?) conclusion--yet.
And you may also need an assist from Elizabeth May resigning her leadership on behalf of a no-name and/or the Greens being barred from the next election debates to cinch something like a Mel Hurtig-esque lucky-to-get 3%. Plus, perhaps, raising the minimum voting age to 30 so that the millennial idealists who've come into political age thinking that it's cool rather than granola-fringy to vote Green will be factored out.
Why don't we take a look at the Green popular vote in the most recent BC and NS elections before we make that kind of assessment, adma.
Hard to tell how much the NDP was un-damaged. In fact, in Ontario, I wouldn't single out just Guelph: remember how the NDP vote share fell in a whole vast slew of seats which weren't in Northern Ontario or existing "holds"--and that's in spite of Jack's "I'm running for Prime Minister" tack. I'd chalk much of that up to the Green rise--though not even directly due to eMay; remember how the '07 provincial election was the first absolute tangible demonstration of the "Greens stealing from NDP" dynamic, and the momentum from that probably spilled over federally the next year.
I'm also wondering how much the perceived tussle between NDP and Green might have turned voters off either party, in a "screw you, we're voting Liberal" sense (an early case of that might have been BEY's Minna-Churley-Harris situation in '06). Which parallels the 93/97/00 Tory/ReformAlliance battles handing the "screw you" vote to the Liberals, or even Ontario's '99 Liberal vs NDP "strategic vote" battles handing a lot of "screw yous" to the Tories...
Why don't we take a look at the Green popular vote in the most recent BC and NS elections before we make that kind of assessment, adma.
I'd even be cautious about using those as guidelines, in part because the respective provincial NDP parties are sitting upon more of a position of "electable strength" than their federal counterparts--thus rendering the Greens superfluous. (It's only because of the continued dead-cat-bounce from 2001's Dosanjih catastrophe that the Greens have seemed vestigially un-superfluous in BC.)
Conversely on your behalf, those examples might be a fair argument for either Jane Sterk or Ryan Watson as the perfect kinds of eMay replacements to take the Greens below 3%
Indeed, my "beware of judging provincial results" logic could just as well apply to the NDP, too, i.e. their abysmal results in the last New Brunswick provincial election couldn't have foretold that the federal party would cross the 15% threshold in every New Brunswick seat in 2008...
Sorry adma, when I looked over that comment of mine it sounded a bit uppity, and I know I wrote it in too much haste. Let me take another try, even though I thought you did a good job of arguing it.
I agree with you that the appearance of electability for the NDP makes people less likely to vote Green, and it's not only provincially, but in certain federal seats as well.
There are spending studies out there that seem to show that the NDP targets its spending a lot more to "winnable" seats. The seats where the Greens had overtaken the NDP were by and large seats the NDP wasn't targetting, but the Greens either were or they just benefitted from being the latest flavour of the month none-of-the-above party.
You suggest that young people are attracted to voting Green, but I would argue that's based probably more on the party's name than its platform, as they would quickly discover if they read it. On the other hand, young people aren't repelled from voting NDP either.
The two target seats we discussed (Guelph and Vancouver Centre) are a different matter, but Debater isn't arguing from any knowledge or interest about what's going on in them (and unlike you I don't think he's older ... I think he just sounds like a know-it-all, except that all the 'knowledge' sounds like stuff he read on the web rather than being out across the country working on campaigns). So that's why I discount what he says pretty well right off the bat. He gives the NDP advice off the top of his head, but really doesn't want the NDP to do well, so I pretty much ignore it now.
In terms of Guelph, the Greens had the advantage last time of it being a by-election riding, in the way the NDP used to once upon a time, and in fact also did this time in Westmount-Ville Marie and St-Lambert for example. However, their candidate is not running again, having been a bit burned by E.Me's "strategic voting" communications fiasco. E.Me has also pretty much indicated that she doesn't want to take out a Liberal, which sends a subliminal signal to the local riding that they're not going to be much of a priority this time around. I'd guess that in a general election, and without having all those bodies they were able to bring in from across the province last time, they'll have some trouble maintaining that vote.
I also think that for most working folks (never mind unemployed folks, which includes a LOT of young people), economic security issues are a lot more top of mind and will trump environmental consciousness for the next little while.
As for Vancouver Centre, it will continue to be a 4-way fight. The advantage the NDP has over the Greens (apart from the economy) is that the Greens are constantly inflating expectations for their performance and then falling far short of them. They can only cry wolf for so long. On the other hand, there is going to be some continued fallout for the NDP over the last provincial campaign. But the Greens really underperformed expectations provincially, and there are some wounds that need healing inside the environment movement too, from what I can tell at a distance.
The Green Party's polling results in national polls vary widely depending on whether the particular pollster prompts with the party name or not, and in any event, their vote is so small that it's going to see a lot of variability in the reporting, especially of subsamples. But BC is famous for another pretty reliably spurious between-election finding, and that's the horse-race numbers for the federal Liberals. They always wind up underperforming out there by the time the election is held relative to where they were between elections, and so wind up being unable to win many seats outside the City of Vancouver proper.
Finally, if Ignatieff continues to bomb and make Liberals nervous into the fall, then we are looking at a pretty fluid situation going forward. Fortune favours the bold and the smart. We'll have to see who is smarter and who is bolder.
But Tom King and Michael Byers were both very strong, very credible candidates, both of whom could be expected to improve their vote share on a second outing. Hedy may or may not run again, but at age 67 she can't run forever. Then the race will take on a different complexion, and having running once already may help.
The two target seats we discussed (Guelph and Vancouver Centre) are a different matter, but Debater isn't arguing from any knowledge or interest about what's going on in them (and unlike you I don't think he's older ... I think he just sounds like a know-it-all, except that all the 'knowledge' sounds like stuff he read on the web rather than being out across the country working on campaigns). So that's why I discount what he says pretty well right off the bat. He gives the NDP advice off the top of his head, but really doesn't want the NDP to do well, so I pretty much ignore it now.
That's up to you - but I think you will find my analysis is fairly well-informed and objective for the most part and that some of the insight I provide into certain ridings could prove correct in the next election.
Let's try to stay away from the personal criticism too, please. I am no more of a 'know-it-all' then you, and as you admitted above, you can sound a bit uppity. 
No, I haven't worked 'on the ground' in B.C. - I have only done so in Ontario and Quebec because those are my 2 provinces of knowledge and experience. So yes, I have never worked in Vancouver Centre - my comments come from having studied the numbers and races closely over the years and heard from others who have worked in them. I suspect that most of us don't have personal knowledge of working in all 308 ridings.
Actually quite a few polls show the so-called Greens fading away into nothingness. A year ago a lot of polls had them at 11-12% nationally and the environment was the number one issue etc... and EMay was getting ridiculously uncritical glowing-to-the-point-of-sycophantic media coverage - even with that and even with a dreadful Liberal campaign that sent many Liberals searching for an alternative - the Greens still only got 6.7% of the vote - way below what the polls were saying. Now most polls have them at 5 or 6%, the environmental has vanished as an issue as everyone focuses on the economy and the media is finally starting to wake up to the fact that EMay is a tedious sanctimonious bore and what minute amount of publicity she gets these days mostly seems to make her an object of ridicule. For those reasons I predict that in the next election the Greens will lose half their votes and do worse than they did under Jim Harris.
I see the inevitible thread drift is going on!
Let's keep this thread about candidates in particular ridings, and comments about the pseudo-Green Party and policies to other threads, shall we?
How very sensible of you, David. Perhaps you could bring us up to date on any speculation about candidates for CCMV?
Re: Kenora, I wonder if racism played a role as the NDP candidate was a FN woman. I don't know the region at all, but looking at poll-by-poll results for Kenora it appears the NDP won some FN communities and the Liberal incumbent won others, with the Tories doing poorly. In predominantly white communities it appears the Tory cleaned up.
Overall the turnout was down 9 percentage points. The Conservative raw vote went up a bit, as did the Green vote slightly, but the Libs and NDP were way down. Without knowing exactly what polls that happened in, or whether it dropped evenly, my bet would be the ID thing on reserve.
"Re: Kenora, I wonder if racism played a role as the NDP candidate was a FN woman."
You mean it would be racist if First Nation peoples in the riding voted disproportionately for the NDP candidate just because she was FN?
I think its obvious he is referring to how well the Conservative candidate did in white communities.
This is a common dynamic in the West where a sufficiently large proportion of the population is FN, and when the Liberal and/or NDP candidates are FN [as is frequently, if not mostly, the case].
My observation from having lived in the situation in both BC and NS is that the same thing would happen here if the reserves were as large. The closer you are to a substantial FN community in NS, the more it feels just like I lived with in BC. But since the FN communities here are smaller the 'orbit' of that racism effect is also smaller... far too small to have the same effect on a whole federal riding: and as far as I can see, even too small to have the same effect on the provincial ridings that are 4 to 5 times smaller.
From what I've heard in Churchill and Western Arctic, the NDP tends to do better among the white population while the Liberals tend to win the FN reserves - thanks to the usual Liberal tactic of "hey chief give us xx number of votes or INAC will never pave another road in this community".
And a footnote on these ridings with large FN populations: turnout means absolutely EVERYTHING to the prospects of the NDP candidate.
The big improvements in advance polling over the last few elections are a huge opportunity we have not systematically tapped. I've done it on a one-off basis. It ain't rocket science. Volunteer drivers is one of the easiest things to get in a campaign. So you line up your drivers, and when you call households in the FN communities you don't bother with voter identification. It's, "we'll take you down to the advance poll, right now."
This should be systemitized across the country where there are concentrations of predominately NDP oriented non-voters.
This is getting to be a long thread, but since someone higher up asked about Taras Natyshak in Essex, I thought a nice way to end it might be to include his recent Facebook update from yesterday:
Press conferance at the unemployed Help Centre 2:00pm. Meet with the group SOS CBEF to discuss French language local programming in Windsor/Essex 3:30 pm. Meeting with local environmentalist Jim Brophy on industrial usage of asbestos 4:30pm. Fundraising dinner with Thomas Mulcair MP for Outremont 6:00pm. Hit the gym at 11:00pm Having the honor of being a part of a great and productive day...Priceless!!!
Now *that's* how to do pre-election work! Bravo Taras. Go get 'em.
Taras comes from a long-time NDP family in that area, and was raised right, if you know what I mean (Saskatchewan roots, too!). After 2 elections he has already bested former candidate, teacher David Tremblay's 2004 performance in vote share. I'm not sure what would be gained from replacing him now. The Liberals on the other hand face the choice of either running Susan Whelan again as a 4-time loser former M.P., or replacing her with a new candidate. This as I'm almost certain Conservative Jeff Watson's vote is about to drop off. Taras is out and about in the community all the time now. I hope he gives it another try.
I don't think Susan Whelan will be running again - her time is probably over now and her performance in the last couple of elections has not been strong. The most exciting thing that happened to her last year was a visit from Justin Trudeau during the election, but it simply highlighted the charisma gap between her and the new generation of up and comers like Trudeau.
From what I have heard, she has lost the fire to run again.
Links:
[1] http://accidentaldeliberations.blogspot.com/2009/07/noah-evanchuk-to-seek-palliser-ndp.html
[2] http://rabble.ca/print/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-nomination-news#comment-1034635
[3] http://www.metronews.ca/edmonton/local/article/252245--cardinal-seeks-to-run-for-ndp-in-edmonton-centre
[4] http://tinyperfectblog.blogspot.com/2009/06/jim-wachowich-conceeding-to-cardinal.html
[5] http://tinyperfectblog.blogspot.com/2009/06/praise-for-lewis-cardinal.html
[6] http://rabble.ca/print/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-nomination-news#comment-1034640
[7] http://rabble.ca/print/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-nomination-news#comment-1034646
[8] http://rabble.ca/print/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-nomination-news#comment-1034659
[9] http://rabble.ca/print/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-nomination-news#comment-1034946
[10] http://rabble.ca/print/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-nomination-news#comment-1034948
[11] http://rabble.ca/print/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-nomination-news#comment-1034949
[12] http://rabble.ca/print/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-nomination-news#comment-1034950
[13] http://rabble.ca/print/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-nomination-news#comment-1034955
[14] http://rabble.ca/print/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-nomination-news#comment-1034959
[15] http://rabble.ca/print/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-nomination-news#comment-1034981
[16] http://rabble.ca/print/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-nomination-news#comment-1035098
[17] http://rabble.ca/print/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-nomination-news#comment-1035103
[18] http://rabble.ca/print/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-nomination-news#comment-1035118
[19] http://rabble.ca/print/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-nomination-news#comment-1035143
[20] http://rabble.ca/print/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-nomination-news#comment-1035149
[21] http://rabble.ca/print/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-nomination-news#comment-1035154
[22] http://rabble.ca/print/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-nomination-news#comment-1035159
[23] http://rabble.ca/print/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-nomination-news#comment-1035194
[24] http://rabble.ca/platform/jobsandaffordability/newenergyeconomy
[25] http://rabble.ca/platform/jobsandaffordability/employmentstandards
[26] http://rabble.ca/platform/jobsandaffordability/corporatetaxes
[27] http://rabble.ca/platform/jobsandaffordability/financialstability
[28] http://rabble.ca/platform/jobsandaffordability/protectingconsumers
[29] http://rabble.ca/platform/jobsandaffordability/foodsafety
[30] http://rabble.ca/platform/jobsandaffordability/agriculture
[31] http://rabble.ca/platform/jobsandaffordability/fisheries
[32] http://rabble.ca/platform/jobsandaffordability/forestry
[33] http://rabble.ca/platform/jobsandaffordability/education
[34] http://rabble.ca/platform/jobsandaffordability/employmentinsurance
[35] http://rabble.ca/platform/jobsandaffordability/childcare
[36] http://rabble.ca/platform/jobsandaffordability/makingendsmeet
[37] http://rabble.ca/platform/jobsandaffordability/affordablehousing
[38] http://recovery.ndp.ca/
[39] http://rabble.ca/print/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-nomination-news#comment-1035199
[40] http://rabble.ca/print/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-nomination-news#comment-1035205
[41] http://rabble.ca/print/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-nomination-news#comment-1035247
[42] http://rabble.ca/print/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-nomination-news#comment-1035258
[43] http://rabble.ca/print/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-nomination-news#comment-1035261
[44] http://rabble.ca/print/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-nomination-news#comment-1035382
[45] http://rabble.ca/print/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-nomination-news#comment-1035383
[46] http://rabble.ca/print/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-nomination-news#comment-1035401
[47] http://rabble.ca/print/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-nomination-news#comment-1035414
[48] http://rabble.ca/print/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-nomination-news#comment-1035452
[49] http://rabble.ca/print/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-nomination-news#comment-1035456
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[72] http://rabble.ca/print/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-nomination-news#comment-1037154
[73] http://rabble.ca/print/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-nomination-news#comment-1037167
[74] http://rabble.ca/print/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-nomination-news#comment-1037175
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[85] http://rabble.ca/print/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-nomination-news#comment-1037240
[86] http://rabble.ca/print/babble/canadian-politics/ndp-nomination-news#comment-1037245
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Native activist and small-businessman Lewis Cardinal recently announced he would be running for the NDP nomination in Edmonton Centre, causing the previous Liberal candidate Jim Wachowich to beg off. Cardinal was the sentimental favourite in a municipal race he nearly won, and won wide praise for his campaign. Coupled with our excellent new MP Linda Duncan and Ray Martin running again in Edmonton East, they will have to change the name to Orange-ton.
http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/Cardinal+tosses+ring/1731023/story.html
http://www.metronews.ca/edmonton/local/article/252245--cardinal-seeks-to-run-for-ndp-in-edmonton-centre [3]
http://tinyperfectblog.blogspot.com/2009/06/jim-wachowich-conceeding-to-cardinal.html [4]
An NDP blogger thoughtfully fished out all the MSM's comments about Cardinal's municipal run in case they get NDP-amnesia when he runs for us federally:
http://tinyperfectblog.blogspot.com/2009/06/praise-for-lewis-cardinal.html [5]
Now, what I want to know is who's going to run for us in CCMV. Any names there yet?
It looks like the NDP is going to have a strong slate in Edmonton in the next election. Cardinal is a well conneced and admired public figure, and with a likely weak Liberal candidate, he has an outside chance.
In addition to Cardinal and MP Linda Duncan, former Provincial leader Ray Martin has announced he is taking a second crack at Edmonton East. He took the NDP from about 18% to about 32% in the last election (sorry, can't remember exact figures) in a seat we've held before.
It exciting to think we are going to have three priority seats in Edmonton.
What are you apologizing for, lack of a decimal place? Your figures are exact enough for most of us.
18.5% to 31.8% ;)
And Goldring is not running again so there will be no incumbant.
This is the best slate I've seen the Federal NDP run in Edmonton. The next most assailable seats in the city are Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont and Edmonton-Sherwood Park, in that order. Those ridings are quite distinct but they both have some elements of Red Toryism, maybe even some progressive potential. Seeing as the NDP has the most winnable seats nominated up, it would be nice if there was some party-building work and a little more work than usual on candidate recruitment done in these ridings. It would make a healthy ad buy in the Edmonton media market more justifiable and keep the inevitable regional organiser on their toes- nothing worse than idle hands or idle money. In the end, Edmonton NDPers are going to be busier than a one-legged man at an ass-kicking competition with Linda Duncan`s seat to defend, Ray Martin`s seat to win, and Lewis Cardinal`s seat at least a strong second.
Wouldn't I also love to see the Alberta labour movement pull some political organising weight in a riding like Edmonton-Mill Woods Beaumont or even some of the original Reform Party blue collar ridings. At the very least they could leaflet the ridings. The Conservatives would not have seen anything like it since 1993. Alberta Labour and the Alberta NDP had been in a row about the last provincial election, so I don`t know how realistic this is.
Other ridings worth a look in a big Edmonton-media buy scenario are Yellowhead, Fort McMurray-Athabasca, and Peace River. It`d be amazing if the NDP could get Luc Bouchard, the Catholic bishop that condemned the oilsands, to run for them in Fort McMurray- Athabasca. If the NDP can also manage to blow some of the local issues like rail safety wide-open in the next Parliament, then Yellowhead becomes more interesting. Peace River is where you might see spill over effects if the NDP gains some traction in the North.
It`s all a long haul and a long shot in Tory fortress Alberta, but that`s the short of it in the Northern half of the province. In the South, the NDP is in a death match with the Liberals and Greens for runner-up irrelevance. There needs to be some sorting out of the opposition parties there. The NDP nees to nominate early and aggresively as best as the party can in Calgary Centre-North, Calgary Centre, Calgary West, and Calgary East to show they are for real this time. Lethbridge has the most progressive potential in the south. It would also be interesting to see what voting changes could be induced due the increased urbanisation of the areas north of Calgary (e.g. Airdrie, etc) and Red Deer.
Those are the potential fault lines as I see them.
ETA: Frankly, I believe it's important to note at this early point that NDP isn't going to have the ground troops in Edmonton to pull off the three riding sweep. To seriously contend in Edmonton Centre they are going to need to build some bridges with the Liberal volunteers. This shouldn't be too hard, if the NDP's overtures are heartfelt, because NDPers (some of them prominent) have supported the Liberals and some of their candidates in the past. Linda Duncan's victory gives all non-reflex Tories in Edmonton the courage to come out and fight for change.
Do babblers think there is any chance Yens Pedersen might take a tilt at Regina Qu'Appelle?
ETA: Maybe we need to start a candidate's draft thread before I succeed in getting this one hijacked for that purpose. Along the lines of candidate draft: I'd be interested in seeing Barbara Gallagher recruited to run in Kings-Hants, possibly Joan Massey in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour and Russell MacDonald in Cape Breton-Canso.
ETA2: John Horgan in Esquimalt Juan-de-Fuca. It will never happen, but it would be cool. It's also too bad the NDP burned its bridges with Paul Summerville and vice versa. He would have made a good candidate in Saanich-Gulf Islands. The NDP either needs to go with someone who can appeal to higher incomes there or find an unimpeachable environmental candidate. I believe the latter has been tried, so maybe now it is time to appeal to the former. The NDP should also keep a close eye on Projet Montreal in the municipal elections in Quebec. Projet Montreal reads essentially like the urban transit+affordable housing party if one were to gloss their current election platform, and they performed quite well in 2005 in several francophone wards were the NDP is a total non-contender, with enough overlap among the NDP's supporters in the progressive NDG-CDN electorate it looks to me like there might be some coalition building potential. The municipal elections in Quebec in general should be very interesting. I'm also concerned the NDP not lose its steam in Gatineau and Hull were it's strength had been building for a while. I'd like to see Ryan Cleary try again in St. John's South-Mount Pearl.
Having done all my NDP campaigning in ridings which were marginal and received little in the way of support from the national office, I agree that more party-building should be done, and it should go beyond focusing on seats that can be taken within one election cycle.
Anyhoo, on the subject of this thread, does anybody have an inside scoop on Dauphin-Swan River? That area's Conservative MP, Inky Mark, has announced his intention to not run in the next election. He was also one of the Conservative MPs who disagreed with Harper on the Wheat Board. I don't expect this seat to be competitive for the NDP by any stretch of the imagination (the NDP won this seat once, and that was a year before Manitoba voters gave the provincial PCs one of its worst ever showings) and I certainly don't see the stars lining up in a similar fashion. Still, a bit of organising would never hurt.
V. Jara, I can speak to Gatineau and Hull-Aylmer. I believe Françoise Boivin has indicated she's running again. Pierre Ducasse is running in the municipal election as well, in a Hull ward, and so would be out of play for a fall federal election, and who knows maybe after (I believe he and his wife are expecting as well). Still it should be possible to recruit another strong candidate for his riding if it came to that.
As to Saskatchewan, I read at the Buckdog blog earlier today that apparently a few more of the Meili folks are getting set for federal runs in the Regina area. And apparently Lingenfelter publicly committed to Jack at the provincial convention that they would "deliver at least two federal seats" in the next federal election. Provincial office always pays more attention to federal elections when they're not in government provincially, I guess ... ;-)
Are there any names emerging from Saskatoon?
The NDP needs to recruit some noise-makers/mavericks in rural BC and to have a real BC platform this time. Also, Gerry Scott should be put out to pasture (he dropped the ball seriously last time), and the federal party should reassert control over the regional organisers. The organisers should be individuals hired, fired, and managed by the Federal party. I say this because in BC the provincial office appointed organisers use the federal campaign like a half-assed trial for upcoming provincial elections and payroll vacation. They acid test risky messages, are out hunting for provincial candidates/resources/volunteers, and give off the vibe that they don't really care if the Federal candidates win- so long as it is the same volunteers coming out for the provincial campaigns. Also, the NDP has a lot of media assets in BC. They need to coordinate with their allies to make sure Jim Sinclair and some retired star power make noise and take to the air waves with favourable issue messaging during the campaign. Without a provincial election on the doorstep, it should be easier to clean shop. Brad "Darth" Zubyk needs to be hired if only to keep him out of the hands of the LPC. I get the sense that some of these misaligned incentive issues also crop up in Saskatchewan- another province where the NDP has a wealth of potential (air war) issue message allies. The Liberals' face plant in Manitoba last election means that the NDP has a chance to try and leapfrog the party in Winnipeg South and St. Boniface if they can just nominate the right candidate and do so early. It's asking too much, but getting one of the Winnepeg South MLAs to run would instantly make it an NDP-Conservative race.
ETA: I think it would be interesting to see a Ben Isitt/Keith Martin match-up in Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca. According to his wikipedia page, Ben Isitt still lives in the Victoria riding, but not terribly far from Esquimalt. Ben Isitt isn't the best matched politically to represent this riding, but he is the kind of hard-nosed challenger that the NDP could use to get back in the race- not to mention that he now has two tough mayoral races (both lost) under his belt that gave him experience against what had been a relatively comfortable incumbent.
In respect to Edmonton, there is a big shake up happening with Edmontonians and the municipal government. And long time conservative leaning people appear to be getting up in arms about privatization schemes of government services. Apparently, they are selling Epcor, or at least part of it off to private concerns. This means Edmontonians are going to take heavy hits to their property taxes, as Epcor profits have kept them lower. Plus they also realize that their hydro will be going up as well.
From listening to comments last evening, by several area residents, the glamour has fallen off of the whole "free market" ideology there. There is no ned for Epcor to be sold, but yet they are forging ahead with it anyway. And this comes on the heels of the much loathed Waste Management getting approval to build a huge new garbage dump.
Alberta is actually in big trouble and Albertans, at least in the Edmonton area, are just beginning to realize how they have been screwed over by Klein and now Stelmach. Stelmach has created a "blue ribbon" panel of advisors, which includes Emmerson of all people. And what is with these LibCons "blue ribbon" labelled panels anyway?
As such, I believe they is definitely room to build a larger movement in Edmonton, on the part of the NDP.
Along the lines of candidate draft: I'd be interested in seeing Barbara Gallagher recruited to run in Kings-Hants, possibly Joan Massey in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour and Russell MacDonald in Cape Breton-Canso.
I don't know about Barbara Gallagher in Kings-Hants or Russell MacDonald in Cape Breton-Canso, but I would rule out Joan Massey in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour, as I know Trevor Pye wants another crack at Michael Savage (the sons of two former provincial M.L.A.s in a grudge match!) and Joan Massey will probably want another shot at the Dartmouth East seat she lost by 170 votes.
One question about Edmonton politics!
If the NDP was able to elect an MP in an Edmonton riding after the most incredible period of economic growth in Alberta history, with the economy faltering as hard as it apparently has, why do babblers feel that the voters would be less inclined to vote NDP next time around?
I can remember the 1986 provincial election, after the Alberta economy had gone through a major down-turn, and the NDP under Ray Martin won 16 (mostly Edmonton) seats.
That's what helped Ross Harvey win Edmonton East in 1988, and the NDP came close in Edmonton North (3500 votes short), Edmonton NorthWest (2400 votes short), and Edmonton-Strathcona (4500 votes short).
Or could I be mistaken?
This is the best slate I've seen the Federal NDP run in Edmonton. The next most assailable seats in the city are Edmonton-Mill Woods-Beaumont and Edmonton-Sherwood Park, in that order. Those ridings are quite distinct but they both have some elements of Red Toryism, maybe even some progressive potential.
Other than the fact that it was represented by PC-turned-Liberal David Kilgour and it has a significant "multicultural" element, I dunno about EMWB. And other than the NDP nearly having its second Edmontonian second-place finish there in '06, plus the pipe-dreamish possibility of coming up the middle in a Uppal vs Ford rematch, I dunno about ESP--to make it work, it needs a lot more Edmonton and a lot less Sherwood Park.
Personally, I'd rank Edmonton-St Albert as equal to or ahead of those two.
Along the lines of candidate draft: I'd be interested in seeing Barbara Gallagher recruited to run in Kings-Hants, possibly Joan Massey in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour and Russell MacDonald in Cape Breton-Canso.
I don't know about Barbara Gallagher in Kings-Hants or Russell MacDonald in Cape Breton-Canso, but I would rule out Joan Massey in Dartmouth-Cole Harbour, as I know Trevor Pye wants another crack at Michael Savage (the sons of two former provincial M.L.A.s in a grudge match!) and Joan Massey will probably want another shot at the Dartmouth East seat she lost by 170 votes.
Barbara Gallagher would be a very interesting choice in Kings-Hants. Ditto for Russell MacDonald. However, speaking from insider knowledge, I don't think Joan Massey will be the NDP candidate in DACH nor do I think BRAD Pye will be running again this time around. So, look for someone new TBD in DACH in 2009 or 2010.
Edmonton St Albert and Edmonton Sherwood Park is in to core Reform party country, I think both ridings are unwinnable but I expect to see bigger gains in Sherwood Park than St Albert. I actually think the higher income factor sometimes helps the non-Tory vote in ESP because Sherwood Park is a place where upper middle class Liberals like to live. EMWB is a loong shot, Kilgour held it because he was a maverick Red Tory. That said, it is the more moderate riding.
As for the economy, it depends who the voters pin the blame on in Alberta. Generally, a poor economy makes Albertans grumpy but who they direct their grumpiness at is an open question. A "they've blown it" campaign against the Conservatives would work best in Alberta if there's a fall election. "They've blown it" begs the question of what the NDP would have done better, and to that I think the NDP response is nothing. They have had absolutely nothing to say about what they would do differently than the government on the economy (and the public finances) other than they would bring in more generous rules for EI, and that scares me. Total vacuum of leadership. The NDP HQ strikes me as completely clueless.
V. Jara, I can speak to Gatineau and Hull-Aylmer. I believe Françoise Boivin has indicated she's running again. Pierre Ducasse is running in the municipal election as well, in a Hull ward, and so would be out of play for a fall federal election, and who knows maybe after (I believe he and his wife are expecting as well). Still it should be possible to recruit another strong candidate for his riding if it came to that.
Yes, Francoise Boivin has said she is running again for the NDP. We may not know until election night how the vote split between the BQ, Liberals and NDP turns out in Gatineau. Last year the vote split ended up electing the BQ.
As for Hull, last year's election results would seem to indicate that Liberal MP Marcel Proulx (recently re-nominated) is now secure there since he won by a much increased margin, so I don't think there will be much change in that riding.
If that were the case re ESP, then its federal Elk Island predecessor would have seen much closer races in the 90s. Instead, Ken Epp won by a more than 2:1 margin over the Liberals in 1993; then it became a more than 3:1 margin in 1997, and over 3.5:1 in 2000. Indeed, judging from provincial results et al, there's a stronger "upper middle class Liberal" argument for something like Edmonton-Leduc--within (R)Edmontonian environs, I sincerely fail to see how Sherwood Park stands out in that regard...
What a load of hooey! See below!
And why would more generous rules for EI scare you? It is after all workers and employers money, not the governments, and they already stole 50 billion of workers and employers money and spent it elsewhere.
the New Democrats will implement a prudent and sensible plan to keep good jobs in Canada, encourage innovation, and get the Canadian government engaged in creating good jobs in the new energy economy.
Additional Measures to Protect Good Jobs and Build Opportunities for New Jobs
Invest the equivalent of one cent of the GST in increased funding of the important priorities of our cities and communities by 2011. This will address the growing infrastructure deficit, and help cities and citizens avoid massive property tax increases. This increased infrastructure commitment, phased in over 5 years, will include increased investment and jobs in:
Expand employment in our communities, build new markets for Canadian suppliers, strengthen sustainability commitments, and encourage Canadian entrepreneurship by adopting a Made-in-Canada procurement policy for the federal government and its agencies.
A Better Buildings Retrofit and Energy Efficiency Strategy:
Strengthen Regional Development:
Making Life More Affordable for Families – Creating Jobs
Creating Jobs and Innovation in a New Energy Economy [24]
Employment Standards: Fairness in the Workplace [25]
Corporate Taxes: Balance and Fairness [26]
Fiscal and Financial Stability [27]
Protecting Consumers, Communities and the Public [28]
Food Safety [29]
Agriculture and Food Security [30]
Fisheries [31]
Forestry [32]
Education, Skills Training and Apprenticeships [33]
Employment Insurance [34]
Children and Child Care: Ensuring a Head Start for Kids [35]
Helping Families Make Ends Meet - and Ending Poverty [36]
Affordable Housing: "Bring Canada Home [37]
http://recovery.ndp.ca/ [38]
Saint Boniface could go NDP eventually. Currently, the elected representatives include left-wing city councillor Dan Vandal and NDP Finance Minister Greg Sellinger. Winnipeg South? Under the current boundaries, no way. Large chunks of the riding are more affluent areas that swing Liberal-Tory. Last go around, the Liberals nominated former provincial Conservative John Loewen, and he still couldn't win. The demographics are not there for an NDP win. Kildonan-St Paul could eventually go NDP. Winnipeg South Centre is staunch Liberal territory (area currently held by Manitoba Liberal Leader Jon Gerrard) and isn't going anywhere. Selkirk is winnable outside Winnipeg, and possibly Dauphin, as mentioned above.
Saint Boniface is mainly a Liberal vs. Conservative race, so I don't see the NDP being in contention there for a while. It also seems like a somewhat Conservative riding in general. It is now held by the Conservatives, and its former Liberal MP Raymond Simard (who is running again next time) was a right-leaning Liberal who opposed SSM. I'm not that fond of Simard, but he is running again so it will probably be a race mainly between him and Con MP Shelley Glover.
There will also be a big battle again in Winnipeg South Centre as the Conservatives want to knock out the Liberals in what is the Liberals' only remaining seat in Manitoba right now. The dynamics of the next race may be influenced by what happens with current Liberal MP Anita Neville. There is actually a bit of confusion right now because some people are saying she is running again, and others say she may retire this year.
Aside from Churchill, the last time the NDP won a seat outside the Perimeter in Manitoba was 1980, and I think that trend is only going to continue with the federal NDP in its current incarnation. Dauphin and Selkirk are both lost causes - if Ed Schreyer couldn't do better than a distant second against a no-name Tory backbencher, S-I is pretty much out of reach I'd say.
Winnipeg South has been, and always will be, a federal NDP dead zone. There was a window of opportunity in South Centre right after Lloyd retired but it's now passed and the Tories are gunning for that seat. St. B has become a Tory-Liberal marginal while the NDP runs university students. Joy Smith romped home in Kildonan-St.Paul in a straight two-horse race with no Liberal candidate - next time the Liberals will probably push the NDP back into third. The NDP had an embarassingly close finish over the Tories in the stronghold of Elmwood-Transcona.
Bottom line as I see it - the NDP has no real prospects for gains at the federal level in Manitoba, and two seats are potentially vulnerable to a switch next time. People don't want to believe it, but there are a ton of blue-collar and middle-class voters in Manitoba who vote NDP provincially and Tory federally. Might not make a lot of sense, but there it is. It's going to take another 1993-style collapse of the Tories for the game to change.
The NDP needs to recruit some noise-makers/mavericks in rural BC and to have a real BC platform this time. Also, Gerry Scott should be put out to pasture (he dropped the ball seriously last time), and the federal party should reassert control over the regional organisers. The organisers should be individuals hired, fired, and managed by the Federal party. I say this because in BC the provincial office appointed organisers use the federal campaign like a half-assed trial for upcoming provincial elections and payroll vacation. They acid test risky messages, are out hunting for provincial candidates/resources/volunteers, and give off the vibe that they don't really care if the Federal candidates win- so long as it is the same volunteers coming out for the provincial campaigns. Also, the NDP has a lot of media assets in BC. They need to coordinate with their allies to make sure Jim Sinclair and some retired star power make noise and take to the air waves with favourable issue messaging during the campaign. Without a provincial election on the doorstep, it should be easier to clean shop. Brad "Darth" Zubyk needs to be hired if only to keep him out of the hands of the LPC. I get the sense that some of these misaligned incentive issues also crop up in Saskatchewan- another province where the NDP has a wealth of potential (air war) issue message allies. The Liberals' face plant in Manitoba last election means that the NDP has a chance to try and leapfrog the party in Winnipeg South and St. Boniface if they can just nominate the right candidate and do so early. It's asking too much, but getting one of the Winnepeg South MLAs to run would instantly make it an NDP-Conservative race.
ETA: I think it would be interesting to see a Ben Isitt/Keith Martin match-up in Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca. According to his wikipedia page, Ben Isitt still lives in the Victoria riding, but not terribly far from Esquimalt. Ben Isitt isn't the best matched politically to represent this riding, but he is the kind of hard-nosed challenger that the NDP could use to get back in the race- not to mention that he now has two tough mayoral races (both lost) under his belt that gave him experience against what had been a relatively comfortable incumbent.
I agree on several points and disagree on others:
- Rural BC - you're bang on and I have always dreamed of Corky Evans running federally - he would be a great voice for rural Canada in the House of Commons along with Charlie Angus, Niki Ashton and many others in our strong and diverse caucus.
- Gerry Scott - should have retired after the 2005 provincial, and did a poor job in the 2008 federal and 2009 provincial. The good news is that the federal party is restructuring the ground game in BC along exactly the lines you suggest, with long-time BC organizer Russ Neely heading up a separate federal organizing team reporting directly to Brad Lavigne and federal office. The new team is just getting up and running but I am optimistic about the exclusive federal focus, for once!
- Zubyk - I and many others will quit if he is ever hired by the NDP in any capacity again. He is a two-faced sleaze bag who sand-bagged Julian West in the last federal after being an "NDP insider" for years (and a well-paid insider at that) and the LPC can keep him as far as I'm concerned. I don't think he has ever won a campaign that he played a major role in. He has no interest in working for the NDP and I'm sure it's totally mutual.
- Isitt - would be a terrible fit for Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca. He may run for Victoria municipal council in the next election and would have a good chance of winning there. The best candidate to beat Keith Martin is our 2004 and 2006 candidate, Randall Garrison, who was elected to Esquimalt city council last November and has had a high profile since.
Yes, he was extremely close in 2004, when he was unknown even. Lots of long hours were put in on that campaign.
Also, I do not believe anyone sand bagged Julian. But I concur about Zubyk otherwise.
Good to hear about the national focus and Gerry scott.
Winnipeg South has been, and always will be, a federal NDP dead zone. There was a window of opportunity in South Centre right after Lloyd retired but it's now passed and the Tories are gunning for that seat. St. B has become a Tory-Liberal marginal while the NDP runs university students. Joy Smith romped home in Kildonan-St.Paul in a straight two-horse race with no Liberal candidate - next time the Liberals will probably push the NDP back into third. The NDP had an embarassingly close finish over the Tories in the stronghold of Elmwood-Transcona.
Certainly Saint Boniface isn't going into the NDP column any time soon, but the demographics are there that with a bit of work it could come through.
As for Schreyer, his star power is quite overstated. Some of the older voters would remember him, but more and more people have no idea who he is. Provincially, the seat is almost entirely NDP, so there should be work done there. It could be won if Bezan steps down.
If you assume that you have no chance in particular constituencies, you're absolutely right. Personally, I think more work should be done in bringing back some of those areas, especially since the party has recently broken through in places like St. John's, Montreal, and Edmonton.
Didn't Zubyk run Gregor Robertson's successful mayoral campaign. Vision Vancouver won a massive victory.
Also, that economic platform is bull#$%@. What is the NDP's position on the deficit? the stimulus funds and what they're being spent on? And how are they going to pay for all that regionalist and nit-picky crap, including their grand master plan of just providing tax cuts to every concievable industry? Give me an effing break.
And WTF does this mean? "Influence competitive advantage by ensuring that the macro-economic environment is growth-oriented."
Finally, what kind of idiot says in one breath:Yes, by setting up barriers to prevent nations from trading with us, they will reduce barriers so we can trade with them. Genius. Same with telling them that we are going to bring in an arbitrary, nationalistic policy to discriminate against their country's goods: Buy only Canadian!
I think it is fairly obvious, trade tariffs on countries like China, and on going subsidies for the redevelopment of industry and manufacturing like every other country has, except Canada. The reality is Canada has what other countries want, and it is currently been given away, as opposed to being used for Canadians.
macro economic evironment indicates to me, putting Canadians to work, as opposed to shipping off resources for manufacture elsewhere, and then import them back in as a finished product.
What's the Conservatives take on their larger than ever before manufactured deficit? What is the Liberals position?
Thats great to hear- and not just for the sake of the BC campaign.
Ever since Jack became Leader and then Jean Chretien gave us the gift of putting financial seperation between the federal party and the section, many of us have been hoping for some substantively seperate organizing. I think this will be a first where the provincial party is strong.
Hopefully we'll see more, including in Nova Scotia, despite the NSNDP success. Probably need it even more here, with so many campaigners directly or indirectly taken up in the needs of governing.
Go easy on the folks with long experience: they've had more successes than failures, and when times were lean, at least they showed up.
Wisdom in that statement OO.
Nanaimo-Alberni has some potential this time around- especially if the Conservative's poll numbers take a hit in BC. I would like to see MLA Leonard Krog courted to run in Nanaimo-Alberni. He was born and raised in the riding and has been elected to represent it twice. In the last provincial election he trounced the city councilor that ran against him in a riding that had been redistributed to include all the North end of Nanaimo that votes hard core BC Liberal. North Nanaimo is what keeps Lunney in office. If Leonard could repeat his provincial results at the federal level (and I don't see why not) then he would win easily. Another option for that seat would be defeated mayoral candidate and long time city councilor Diane Brennan (or her husband who is the school board prez/trustee). Departure Bay resident and city councillor Fred Pattje would also be a progressive option but much less likely to run. In the past, the NDP's weaker results have been due to candidates with no name recognition or weak campaigns. Pattje may want to consider running just because he is likely to get defeated in the next municipal election as he finished last on the 2008 council slate.
I'm sorry but this makes absolutely no sense, so fugghedaboutit: ""Influence competitive advantage by ensuring that the macro-economic environment is growth-oriented." The only sense I could make of it is that the NDP used to have a policy of urging the Bank of Canada to lower interest rates (in order to increase "employment" and as a major side consequence, inflation-so much for granting the bank any independence to conduct its job professionally whatsoever)- although even this wouldn't make the above sentence make sense- yet now that interest rates are zero they must be referring to some other kind of psychedelic cactus vision.
As for the NDP's protectionist ideas for bolstering the economy, any arbitrary discriminatory measure against foreign trading partners will be met an eye for an eye. You want to arbitrarily discriminate, you will be matched discrimination by discrimination by every trading country with a brain and the slightest self esteem. It'd be real fun when the Europeans and US slap "don't buy Canadian" policies on us in retaliation for whatever we want to do. Anyone want some liquidation maple syrup? How about when RIM has to relocate to the US because they can't sell into that market out of Canada anymore :( Just about everywhere the Canada government can justify (e.g. to their trading partners) protectionist measures like tariffs, quotas, and taxpayer subsidies- they do so.
Finally, the Conservative position on the deficit is "this is what Canadians and Parliamentarians wanted" and "Canadians are getting good value for their money" and "the funds are flowing as fast as we can shovel them out of the wheelbarrow" and "we just gave you all record tax cuts"
The Liberal position is "this deficit is obscene, it sets up an unwinnable scenario where future governments will have to raise taxes" and "the money needs to flow faster and not just to Conservative ridings" and "you are/have squandered all the good fiscal managment that the Liberals did in the 90s, all the fiscal room and debt reduction that our surpluses generated" and then they are largely silent on what the money gets spent on.
The NDP???? Please don't ask us questions for fear we will embarass ourselves. Buy union!
Come on NDP, there are so many ways to attack on this. Why are there no parties out their questioning if we get any value for our stimulus money? Just copy and paste the weekly NY Times Paul Krugman article for chrissakes! Or compare our useless GST cut to Obama massive investments in forward-looking green infrastructure.
And re:Gerry Scott. The man is a legend. He will be remembered for a long time. He's run some great campaigns and is immensely knowledgeable. That doesn't change the fact that he performed very poorly during the last two campaigns. As was said before, leaving after the 2005 election would have seen him retiring on a high note: bringing the NDP from 2 seats to its second highest ever vote % in provincial history (if I'm not mistaken, either way- it was a great achievement).
P.S. Who was the guy that ran the 2003 NDP campaign in Saskatchewan but stepped down before the race in 2007? Any chance the federal NDP could hire him to help manage the campaign there next time around. It seemed like he really pulled a rabbit out of his hat with the party messaging and resource targetting because the NDP was supposed to lose that race.
Didn't Zubyk run Gregor Robertson's successful mayoral campaign. Vision Vancouver won a massive victory.
No, I am pretty sure Mike Magee was the campaign manager - the Straight has it wrong in their reference to Brad. Zubyk was a spokesperson for Robertson during the campaign. Brad is known for running Corky Evans losing leadership bid in 2000, Jim Green's losing MLA campaign against Gordon Campbell in 1996, and of course, most recently was a key player in the federal Liberals stellar BC campaign in Oct 2008, where they went from 9 seats in 2006 to 5 in 2008 and barely hung on to ultra-safe seats like Vancouver South by a mere 20-odd votes. Yep, that Brad is really a genius
ETA: This proves my point re the Vision Vancouver campaign - the municipal election was in Nov 2008, so there is no way Brad could ahve been the manager as he was a full time Federal Liberal staffer in BC in Sept and Oct 2008. He may have been the manager and/or spokesperson for Robertson's nomination campaign in spring 2008.
Nanaimo-Alberni has some potential this time around- especially if the Conservative's poll numbers take a hit in BC. I would like to see MLA Leonard Krog courted to run in Nanaimo-Alberni. He was born and raised in the riding and has been elected to represent it twice. In the last provincial election he trounced the city councilor that ran against him in a riding that had been redistributed to include all the North end of Nanaimo that votes hard core BC Liberal. North Nanaimo is what keeps Lunney in office. If Leonard could repeat his provincial results at the federal level (and I don't see why not) then he would win easily. Another option for that seat would be defeated mayoral candidate and long time city councilor Diane Brennan (or her husband who is the school board prez/trustee). Departure Bay resident and city councillor Fred Pattje would also be a progressive option but much less likely to run. In the past, the NDP's weaker results have been due to candidates with no name recognition or weak campaigns. Pattje may want to consider running just because he is likely to get defeated in the next municipal election as he finished last on the 2008 council slate.
Brennan sounds promising, don't know about Pattje. No way Krog will leave the provincial scene - he fought hard to come to the Leg in 2005 and he has a lock on a major Cabinet post if the NDP wins in 2013. Alberni is a very different seat than Krog's provincial seat, there is a big Bible belt presence and lots of retirees from out of province who vote Conservative, it is winnable but will be tough to get for the NDP. The key pick-ups on Vancouver Island are Esquimalt-JDF and Vancouver Island North - and depending on what happens with Elizabeth May, even Saanich Gulf-Islands is possible given the great provincial results for the NDP there.
Anyone know anything whether Nettie Wiebe is definitely going for another go at Saskatoon–Rosetown–Biggar? I hear rumours via punditsguide.ca, but can't find anything concrete. I don't think there was a Dipper in the country who didn't feel for her last time (maybe Jack Harris can send a few coachloads of voters?).
Note: If she were to go again, I think anything other than an uncontested nomination would be a major shock.
Pattje and Brennan would be less likely to win. Pattje is new to council and thus relatively unknown (although he ran for council before and finished just short of a win). Both Pattje and Brennan did poorly in the part of Nanaimo that is in Nanaimo-Alberni in the municipal polls and Brennan does not really have a good excuse for that. Krog has represented the portions of Nanaimo-Alberni that are least friendly to the NDP in two stints as an MLA. His future within the BC NDP is capped. He ran for the leadership and came up short. He has since patched things up with James and grown into his critic role. The BC NDP will be sitting on the sidelines of provincial politics until at the very least 2013. Someone needs to take up the mantle again and reclaim Tommy Douglas' old riding.
Anyone know anything whether Nettie Wiebe is definitely going for another go at Saskatoon–Rosetown–Biggar? I hear rumours via punditsguide.ca, but can't find anything concrete. I don't think there was a Dipper in the country who didn't feel for her last time (maybe Jack Harris can send a few coachloads of voters?).
Note: If she were to go again, I think anything other than an uncontested nomination would be a major shock.
Yes Pundits Guide claims she may run again. She did come very close last time, although there was the advantage of Carol Skelton retiring and the seat having no incumbent. Now the Conservatives have an incumbent for the next election and it may be more competitive next time.
Now the Conservatives have an incumbent for the next election and it may be more competitive next time.
If Saskatchewan politics holds true to form, I've noticed that over the years they tend to counter-balance their provincial voting patterns by voting another way federally, and vice-versa.
After Diefenbaker virtually swept Saskatchewan (and Canada) in the 1958 election, the CCF was easily re-elected to power in the 1960 provincial election. After Grant Devine was re-elected in 1986, the NDP won 10 of 14 seats federally in 1988. And once the NDP came back provincially in 1991, there hasn't been much success federally since then.
I would think that the federal NDP's chances at winning seats in Saskatchewan are greater now, the longer the Saskatchewan Party is in power provincially, or could I be mistaken?