NDP nomination news

"Someone needs to take up the mantle again and reclaim Tommy Douglas' old riding."

That would be Jean Crowder, the NDP MP for Nanaimo-Cowichan.

I'd like to see Richard Marois run again in St. Lambert. He did a respectable job in 2008. I'm also curious to know how the NDP got from 1.8% support in 2004 to 16.4% in 2008 in the riding of Drummond. That riding literally went from dead last to 6th best for the NDP in Quebec.

ETA: I'd like to see one of the executive members on this page run for the NDP in Moncton-Riverview-Dieppe. It would be fun to see a true three-way race in this riding next time around and the Federal NDP needs to start contesting more of the francophone heavy ridings of NB, what with MP Yvon Godin as their public face and all.

ETA2: With a Conservative rookie MP representing Saint John. Maybe former NB NDP leader Elizabeth Weir could be enticed away from her public sector job to run for the NDP.

ETA3: Any thoughts on whether Taras Natyshak should run again in Essex? Looks like that would be a good riding to hope for a contested nomination in. Howard Hampton nominated in Kenora would be very nice (probably a pipe dream), even if Angus' riding would be a better fit. Michael Prue in Beaches-East York, even if NDPers would like to see Churley elected. Prue gets a lot of non-NDP votes and he could make the difference. His provincial NDP career aspirations seem stunted at present. He could use a career restarter and Churley might be grateful to trade federal for provincial politics, if she wanted to run for Prue's provincial seat.

As for Drummond, the NDP certainly moved up a bit from 2004 to 2006, but the big move came in 2008 when the Bloc incumbent Pauline Picard (R.I.P. just recently) stepped down.  That seemed to be worth 10 points for the NDP, although it might also have had something to do with a new candidate for us from out of the media ranks.

The NB riding page you linked to does not render properly in IE 6, although it looks very nice in Firefox.  It's a high-powered executive, to be sure.

Taras comes from a long-time NDP family in that area, and was raised right, if you know what I mean (Saskatchewan roots, too!).  After 2 elections he has already bested former candidate, teacher David Tremblay's 2004 performance in vote share.  I'm not sure what would be gained from replacing him now.  The Liberals on the other hand face the choice of either running Susan Whelan again as a 4-time loser former M.P., or replacing her with a new candidate.  This as I'm almost certain Conservative Jeff Watson's vote is about to drop off.  Taras is out and about in the community all the time now.  I hope he gives it another try.

Our 2008 first nations candidate in Kenora, Tania Cameron, apparently wants to run again, so while I love Howie, I don't see the benefit of running him there.  Plus, I think his hometown of Fort Frances is in Thunder Bay--Rainy River.

Your thought on Prue is interesting.  I've seen Marilyn Churley on TV a number of times now, and she has not impressed me.  One time in particular on TVO's The Agenda she was so poorly briefed it was embarrassing.  Maybe there's a record of community activism there that I'm not up to speed on from Ottawa.  On the other hand, Prue's snippiness at our local all-candidates leadership debate was a bit of a turn-off too.  Still I should give him a second chance, as he was very gracious at a later Ottawa event, and everyone has a bad day.

Against the only Conservative elected from Northern Ontario, Greg Rickford, aged 41.

A multi-talented fellow, he has degrees in Common and Civil law from McGill University, and an MBA from Laval University in Quebec City where he learned to speak French. He started by getting a Bachelor of Science in Nursing from the University of Victoria, and first moved to the Kenora region in 1992 working as an extended scope of practice Registered Nurse with First Nations Inuit Health Branch (Sioux Lookout Zone) in various isolated and remote First Nation communities. When nominated, he was a lawyer with a Kenora-based practice and a satellite office in Winnipeg, Manitoba. His practice areas included Corporate, Civil litigation, ADR, Health Care Law and consulting. His practice was confined to serving First Nation communities and their members. He is the only person I have ever seen sign himself "R.N., B.S.N., M.B.A., LL.B., B.C.L." To top it off, at McGill he also played hockey and was captain of Chico Resch, McGill Law School's intramural hockey team. He lives with his girlfriend of five years, Janet Pearce.

So why isn't this man in cabinet? There are 38 cabinet ministers, 37 of whom are MPs. That's one for each 8.3 of the 308 ridings. Northern Ontario has nine ridings. Five members of the class of '08 are in cabinet already: Gail Shea, Lisa Raitt, Peter Kent, Leona Aglukkaq, and Keith Ashfield. Why not Greg Rickford?

If he isn't in cabinet before the next election, Tania Cameron will have more evidence of Ottawa's neglect of the North.

My bad on Howie. Yes, Thunder Bay--Rainy River is the better fit. Also, babblers (or Ontario NDPers) are well aware that Prue is no saint, but he maintains a powerful loyalty among a lot of voters in his riding that don't vote NDP yet vote Prue. He is seen as a local champion and he is loyal NDP. I wonder what babblers think of Paul Ferreira being asked to give York South Weston another kick at the can. While I was disapointed with his provincial results, I'd like to see the NDP consider recruiting and providing some solid advice/maybe support to a campaign for Mohamed Boudjenane in the Toronto area. His credentials are laudable and I think he could make a useful contribution to the NDP caucus and House of Commons. Running against Kirsty Duncan in Etobicoke North might seem like a viable option but she could hard to beat. She shared the Nobel Prize with Al Gore for climate change and is a nice person. You would have to campaign on the issue of her (and maybe the Liberal's) effectiveness as representatives for this long-held riding.

In dream world, it would be great to see Stephen Lewis run in a Toronto riding. Seems like Parkdale-High Park, Toronto Centre, or Davenport could be options. I also wish Roy Romanow could be enticed to run for the NDP, but he seems like he comes from the wrong wing of the party to be comfortable in a Layton caucus. I could see him offering if a more right-of-party NDPer like Gary Doer were running the party. It's too bad the Lorne Calvert flirtations never came to much. Another NDP star I've long wished would reoffer is Mike Harcourt, but I believe his contention that he is burned off politics for good. Finding him a riding might also be interesting. Vancouver Centre would be the obvious choice, but given how unphased local voters can be by the big "star" candidates there, Vancouver Quadra might be worth a poll survey. Vancouver Kingsway would have been a good option but the NDP is fortunate enough to currently hold that seat.

ETA: For the NDP to make gains in the BC Lower Mainland, I think there going to have to try to recruit from the ranks of the NDP MLAs. Surrey North, Newton-North Delta, Fleetwood-Port Kells, and Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows are the (at least on paper) targets. Maybe Corky Evans could run in Kootenay-Columbia. Problem is Corky Evans=Nelson and Nelson is in British Columbia Southern Interior (which is currently held by Alex Atamanenko). The BC NDP did better in the Chilliwack-Fraser Canyon area than they do typically. A lot of this had to do with Harry Lali's candidacy but there was a general rise as well. As such, it might be a smart move to recruit the BC NDP candidate Gwen O'Mahony, that trimmed the gap with Campbell cabinet minister Barry Penner in Chilliwack Hope to run. Certainly can't hurt. I do think that the NDP still has room to grow in Chiliwack-Fraser Canyon, bible-belt notwithstanding. In fact, it was amazing how inefficient the BC NDP support was on election day when you gaze out across the Langley, Abbotsford, and Chilliwack bible belt. Maybe that was where Bill Tieleman's famous "axe the tax" campaign mantra bore fruit- yet flipped no seats. In other words, the BC NDP gained a bunch of votes in lower income, farther flung, conservatives areas where they had no hope of winning, and lost the more eco-minded, politically moderate, and risk averse suburban areas that were the key to victory. I always thought the axe the tax campaign was painfully hypocritical demagoguery.

Kamloops-Thompson-Cariboo remains a Gordian knot. Nelson Riis remains the last prickly maverick that was able to hold it.

The NDP candidate lost alot of Ground in the 2008 election in Northern Ontario, during a period when the NDP were sweeping

Region. Tania running again will like end up with the same result. The NDP lost nearly 3000 votes, and the Liberal campaign stunk,

yet the NDP did not overtake the Liberals but lost ground. It sounds to me like Rickford, apparently a relative newcomer to the

region, appealed to many people in the riding. Regardless of whether or not he is a cabinet minister, it would take a major screwup

for the incumbent to lose this seat.

Canadian federal election, 2008
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
     Conservative Greg Rickford 9,395 40.46% +9.47%
     Liberal Roger Valley 7,344 31.63% -4.89%
     New Democrat Tania Cameron 5,394 23.23% -6.72%
    
 
Canadian federal election, 2006
Party Candidate Votes % ±% Expenditures
     Liberal Roger Valley 9,937 36.52% 
     Conservative Bill Brown 8,434 30.99%
     New Democratic Party Susan Barclay 8,149 29.95% 

At first I thought you meant Peter Ferreira (who had run for us this past time in Davenport) and was going to say an enthusiastic yes.  I had hoped we would take that seat last time, but recognize it's at least a two-election commitment.  The Liberal Mario Silva is the one who unseated Charles Caccia for his nomination as part of the Paul Martin goon squad, and while nominally a left, out Liberal, has betrayed the labour movement twice on his anti-scab private member's bill.  I notice he had real trouble raising money for the last election, and was about $30K in the hole before the rebate.  This caused him to underspend relative to Ferreira's campaign, and the Conservatives have evidently given up on the riding, raising less than the Green Party EDA last year.

But, in fact, you meant PAUL Ferreira who briefly won the provincial seat in York South-Weston after running twice federally and a few more times provincially and municipally.  I'm not sure but on the surface it looks like our candidate last time Mike Sullivan did better on his first outing than Paul Ferreira did on either of his two previous federal tries.  Given that Tonks may step down soon, we should really be picking a strong horse and sticking with it here.  Sullivan is a national CEP staff rep doing negotiations with the CBC, and who had a 16-year record of local activism in the riding.

I've also been impressed with Mohamed Boudjenane, but we've also had a good candidate in Ali Naqvi in Etobicoke North.  I find Duncan to be a real self-promoter and a horrible fit for the demographics of that riding, and while she has academic credentials I don't find her terribly sharp when I see her in the House or on TV.  She was part of a big group that won the Nobel prize, and had a questionable role in any of it, if you read Gina Kolata (the NY Times science writer).

I wondered if Peggy Nash's bid for Party President was a prelude to her running again federally, or a segue out of running at all again.  Now I would love to see a Stephen Lewis v. Bob Rae fight in Toronto Centre, oh what a righteous and fascinating thing that would be to watch.  But honestly, hasn't the poor fellow earned the right to slow down a bit!  Of course it would tie Rae down to his riding, and keep him out of the NDP - Conservative races out west where his primary purpose seemed to be to hike the Liberal vote and keep us out.

Perhaps Calvert could be enticed federally, now that his succession has been well taken care of.  Nettie is apparently running again in Rosetown-Biggar, but what about Humboldt?  I think a man of the cloth is the perfect person to take on Brad Trost right about now, and teach him a little bit about christian charity ;-)

Not much to add on Harcourt, but I'm just not sure the weekly travel would do a thing for his back.  It's brutal for BC M.P.s.

Madmax, the issue of first nations turnout in Kenora is the killer.  The ID requirements really hurt in that riding, and although Cameron was successful in at least getting Elections Canada to recognize a letter from the Band Council as proof of residence, you can also imagine that this was hardly a panacea.  That section of the Elections Act truly has to be fixed (and SHAME on the Liberals for supporting it in the first place).

V.Jara, Kamloops was a heartbreak, but Michael Crawford is the right kind of candidate to take it (like Nelson, he's a college teacher).  The Liberal vote there just tanked last time, and usually Kamloops is one of the few pockets of Liberal support in the BC Interior.  I hope Crawford gives it one more go, because that might be the charm.

Can't comment knowledgably on the Surrey-Delta seats you name, but I thought that, given he was nominated at the last minute, Rachid Arab held as much of Penny's vote as you could expect in Surrey North running against Cadman's widow.  Dona hasn't exactly been a strong presence in the House (nor I suspect in BC) since then, though, and might be easier to take on this time.  The other seat to hope for would be Newton-North Delta, and I would have thought we had a strong candidate in Theresa Townsley, the deputy school board chair, but she was the only major candidate who wasn't Sikh, and perhaps that hurt.

I agree with you on Corky.  Boy would he shake up Ottawa.  I could see him as a real east-west north-south tag-team with Charlie Angus.

Anyways, I'm enjoying all this speculation if nothing more ... any other good ideas?

"I also wish Roy Romanow could be enticed to run for the NDP, but he seems like he comes from the wrong wing of the party to be comfortable in a Layton caucus."

I think that's a bit of a misconception. If Romanow doesn't run federally, it has nothing to do with who is leading the party - I think he just doesn't want to be an MP and live in Ottawa. I've heard that he and Layton are actually quite close and talk a lot and have very similar ideas.

The best riding for Stephen Lewis might be Beaches-East York and I don't know if he'd be a good fit for Davenport.  I really doubt he has any interest in being a politician again though.

I've been hearing Avi might be interested in running one day.  Avi Lewis and Naomi Klein used to live up the street from me, but they moved out a while ago, I believe to High Park.

I was thinking BEY too for him--not least because it's next door to his old Scarborough political constituency (and wasn't the Lewis-Landsberg household right at the borderline?)

Well, PHP would seem an home-turf Avi natural, then.  Though the "near-childhood turf" of BEY has a parallel compatibility--and, past "unbeatibility" notwithstanding, Maria Minna ought still to be easier pickings than Gerard Kennedy, under the circumstances.

Indeed, the "Lewis household" magic seems like the perfect formula for the NDP to reclaim the "Rae Democrat" urban left who fled with Rae in '08...

And when it comes to Kenora, remember the psychological effect of the Tories finishing ahead of the NDP in '06 (after finishing behind in '04) might have affected voter choices.  (And maybe proximity to the Prairies subtly "validated" the Tories as an electoral choice here, i.e. awakened a certain "Provencher East" dynamic.)

Though I'm not sure whether the Tories ever saw Davenport in anything more than nominal terms.  And keep in mind that the Green candidate (bike messenger activist Wayne Scott) was the closest to a party "star" running in the 416.

True, Sullivan did better; but paradoxically bear in mind that that was in great measure on the coattails of Paul Ferreira's provincial success.  If not for Ferreira's "validating" the NDP as an electable choice, I suspect Sullivan might have achieved more of an 04/06-type result.  (Which isn't an argument against either candidate, BTW.)

And re the "horrible fit", keep in mind that Duncan underachieved (48.6%, a lower share than even Borys W. in Etobicoke Centre) and the Tory candidate overachieved (cracking 30%) in '08.

And Naqvi was one of the few 416er NDPers to improve on '06, perhaps partly because of Duncan's deficiencies, but also because the party started taking the seat's pickup potential borderline seriously.  In his previous tries, he was treated as a throwaway; not this time...

OK, now could I ask what needs to be done for a serious run in Lewis' old Scarborough seat ... albeit I realize the demographics have undoubtedly changed significantly in the interim.  Our new 2008 candidate Alamgir Hussain held most of the earlier vote, but the Greens and Conservatives were also up a bit.  It's still our best Scarborough seat, and the newly elected Liberal Michelle Simpson is a party hack who got appointed if I'm not mistaken and is singularly unimpressive (although she has a little mini non-story on Twitter right now about how she is publicly releasing her MPs' expenses).  We hardly spent anything in there ... I wonder if a more serious campaign could pull that vote up from 18-23% into something competitive.

She may be unimpressive - but she sure beats Tom Wappell!

The NDP is going to do better next time in Scarborough SW, if only because the Tamil community was furious over Ignatieff's silence on the bloodletting in Sri Lanka. The NDP needs to leverage this disappointment in moving the seat into a competitive place. The party, which was in touch with the Tamil community throughout the Sri Lankan crisis, would be best positioned to figure out how to do this. It is also worth noting that any Tamil-targetting strategy is a tide that lifts all boats in Scarborough, given the community's prominence and dispersion across the region. I hope the party drops some change on a Scarborough area election hire that can either assist with media or organising and is perfectly erudite in written and spoken Tamil. In general, such an employee could help with shifting some votes in greater Toronto, Montreal, and probably a couple other cities. Anyone know how to find out what the top 10 Tamil ridings in Canada would be?

Also, looks like a contested nomination between Mike Sullivan and Paul Ferreira with both committed to back the winner 100% would be a good shot in the arm for the NDP riding association in York-South Weston. Similsrly a contested nomination in Etobicoke North between Ali Naqvi and Mohamed Boudjenane with the party promising some real support to the winner would be very interesting.

Strange: I was thinking of Scarborough, too, after my earlier posts--Scarborough SW most of all, of course (remember that John Harney held it federally once upon a time, and it's continued to be above-average since--does Dan Harris still have plans?).  But at this rate, maybe not just SSW; look at something like Neethan Shan's impressive provincial result in Scarborough-Guildwood in 2007 as a guideline.

It may take a different strategy from Lewis/Harney days; but there's lots of untapped sleeper promise--and of course, being what it is, the Liberal "Bloc Scarberia" makes for one heck of a tempting target.

However, for the sake of assembling a voting "grand coalition", I'd recommend against over-milking the Tamil issue.  Otherwise, you might face another Monia Mazigh-type anticlimax...

Stephen would be incredible, but I'm sure he won't do it.  I'd take Naomi over Avi any day as a candidate - she is a global progressive icon and would be a likely winner in either P-HP or Beaches - EY, not sure about Davenport, but again, she would not likely want to run, unfortunately.  Avi has some currency but not sure he could beat Kennedy or even Minna, he just doesn't have the profile, stature or depth that Naomi does.

I disagree about Avi. He would have an advantage over Naomi in that he would have less in print that could be brought up to paint him as a wild-eyed leftist extremist, which is what I suspect the tack would be if Naomi ran. Avi would also be running in a friendly riding and would start off with more political capital than some of the NDPers that have been able to win in the past- therefore at a slight advantage.

I've long pushed for Corky to run federally, and I don't think it's that big a deal if he runs in a neighbouring seat, Corky is a beloved figure throughout the Kootenays (and most of BC for that matter).  I also was disappointed in Newton North-Delta, not sure why we went down in 2008 compared to 2006 there.  In terms of Surrey NDP MLAs, I can see Sue Hammell and maybe Jagrup Brar going federal at some point.  Hammell has done it all in Victoria and might be up for a new challenge, Brar has enough presence to be competitive in Surrey North.  I think Ralston and Bains are exclusively focused on the provincial scene, same for Getner in Delta North.  Bob Simpson would be another good MP candidate in Cariboo-Prince George if he ever gets tired of BC politics.

Harcourt is like Stephen Lewis - never going to run again for anything.  Jim Green might have been a good candidate for Vancouver Centre at one point but the post-Larry Campbell era has not been kind to Jim, and I think his time has passed.  Heather Deal is a popular Vision Vancouver city councillor with a good green profile - she would be a strong NDP candidate for Vancouver Centre, no idea if she'd be interested.  Kerry Jang is another Vancouver councillor who has long been courted to run federally, I think he was going to run in Kingsway at one point...another one to keep in mind down the road, maybe for when Libby retires from Vancouver East.  Gabriel Yu and Victor Wong are other possibilties for federal candidates, don't know where they would run though.

We absolutely need to get some strong federal NDP candidates from the Indo-Canadian and Chinese-Canadian communities in the Lower Mainland, our current BC caucus is stellar but not at all diverse ethnically, and that needs to change soon.  

Hasn't Michael Byers already announced that he wants to run again in Van Centre?

Surrey North would be the most obvious place where the NDP ought to try to get a good Indo-Canadian candidate. That riding is pretty heavily Indo-Canadian and the two provincial ridings that make it up went NDP by massive 70% margins. Dona Cadman won it pretty narrowly even though the NDP seems to have been stuck with a very low profile candidate who was only nominated at the last minute. With Tory support down since last year - that should be an easy pick up for the NDP. On top of that i heard somewhere that Dona Cadman is not enjoying being an MP at all and may not even run again.

Yes, Byers is running again in Centre, I was just speculating broadly on possible fed NDP candidates down the road.  With Vancouver East and Kingsway already NDP and Quadra and Vancouver-South not competitive, Centre is the only remaining Vancouver riding for potential new candidates to run in.  Byers is fine and I hope he wins but somebody like Deal might have a better profile and fit for this riding.  Byers isn't nominated yet so there is always the slim chance of a contested nomination, would likely be healthy for the NDP if it was contested.

Good news about Cadman and Surrey North - but that is not the only riding by any means where the NDP should aggressively recruit Indo-Canadian candidates.  Newton North-Delta, Vancouver South and Fleewood-Port Kells are among the many Lower Mainland ridings where this would be desirable.

Although you admit that's not a very high bar to climb, I'm sure ...

Hear, hear.

Here's the top 25:

Scarborough - Rouge River (35083)
14680

Markham - Unionville (35045)
9400

Scarborough - Guildwood (35082)
8535

Scarborough Centre / Scarborough-Centre (35081)
8200

Scarborough - Agincourt (35080)
5920

Scarborough Southwest / Scarborough-Sud-Ouest (35084)
3335

Mississauga - Brampton South / Mississauga - Brampton-Sud (35047)
3310

Etobicoke North / Etobicoke-Nord (35024)
2870

Mississauga East - Cooksville / Mississauga-Est - Cooksville (35048)
2735

York West / York-Ouest (35106)
2695

Brampton West / Brampton-Ouest (35008)
2625

Bramalea - Gore - Malton (35006)
2450

Oak Ridges - Markham (35059)
2310

Toronto Centre / Toronto-Centre (35093)
2105

Mont-Royal / Mount Royal (24044)
2030

Don Valley West / Don Valley-Ouest (35017)
1995

Pickering - Scarborough East / Pickering - Scarborough-Est (35072)
1880

Mississauga - Erindale (35049)
1765

Don Valley East / Don Valley-Est (35016)
1760

Papineau (24048)
1695

York South - Weston / York-Sud - Weston (35105)
1690

Vaughan (35096)
1685

Saint-Laurent - Cartierville (24066)
1560

Brampton - Springdale (35007)
1380

Mississauga - Streetsville (35051)
1360

I pasted this as a table, but have a funny feeling it's not going to render very well.  If not, I'll edit it and try again.

ETA: I wish this new babble interface were better at tables.

Nice work OO. Virtually all of those ridings are middle to low income places where the NDP is completely absent. Interesting.

Is this just Sri Lankan Tamils, or Tamil Nadu Tamils as well?

How does Derek Lee keep Rouge River, the single most ethnically diverse riding in the country?

Oh, sorry Wilf.  Didn't see that question.  The data I had did not break the category down further.  It was a better breakdown than you get from the public riding profiles, but I'm sorry I don't know what the category includes off the top of my head.  I'll see if I can locate the definitions.

I don't know about abscent,  as in:

Scarborough - Rouge River, the NDP have increased their votes shares every election since 2000. In fact  by 10% since 2000. You add 14 k worth of former Liberal voters to the NDP, and take that away from the Liberals and the NDP win. And the rest of the Scarboroughs showed increased trends towards the NDP vote share too. Still low but not abscent.

Same too for Markham, it has increased its support for the nDP by over 8% since 2000. However, it would be a 3 way race if the Tamil vote went NDP.

Didn't bother checking the rest as the trend seems pretty clear from 2000, NDP vote shares are going steadily up in most all that I checked.

*tks pundit's guide for the numbers.

OK, here's the full list of categories they used.  I'm clearly less knowledgeable than you in this subject area, but scanning the list there do not seem to be separate categories as per the two you list.

What do you mean how does he "keep" it?  It's the safest Liberal seat in Scarborough from what I can tell - I expect that's how.

Note the sense of entitlement: it's not explained by the M.P. being particularly good, or having long roots in the community, or a notable record on issue X of concern to the community.  No, it's that the seat belongs to the Liberal party.  More so than any of the others in Scarborough.  Now, why didn't we think of that.

No - that's not what I was saying, that is your interpretation.  I was saying that the reason he wins it is because it's the safest Liberal seat in the area and therefore because he is the Liberal there, he wins it, regardless of whether he is a strong MP or not.  That's the reality of safe seats for all parties.

It's just like when you are the Conservative nominee in Wild Rose - once you have the nomination, you have the seat.  It's not necessarily fair, but that's just the way it works.

Indeed. So, while it is possible that some Sri Lankan Tamils have answered "Sri Lankan," and some Indian Tamils have answered "East Indian" or some answer that was classed as "South Asian not included elsewhere," I would expect that both groups have answered "Tamil." But "Tamil-speaking Muslims" in Sri Lanka do not identify as ethnic Tamils and are therefore listed as a separate ethnic group in official statistics in Sri Lanka, so I don't know how they would answer a Canadian census. I doubt many of them came here.

In South Asia you have the Indian province of Tamil Nadu, with a population of 66,396,000 as of July 1, 2008, and the Sri Lankan Tamils. There are also about 6 million Tamils in other provinces of India. There used to be about 2.5 million Sri Lankan Tamils in Sri Lanka, but many fled post-1983. From a population of fewer than 2,000 Tamils in 1983, they have become one of the largest visible minority population groups within the Greater Toronto Area. More than 25,000 were added between 1984 and 1992; in the 1991 census, Tamils were the fastest-growing ethnic group in Metropolitan Toronto. Canada's Tamil population is thought to constitute the largest Sri Lankan diaspora in the world and Toronto is "the city with the largest number of Sri Lankan Tamils in the world." Still, some Canadian Tamils came from other countries such as India, Malaysia, South Africa, Guyana, Trinidad and Tobago and Fiji. (In the 19th century, Tamils from India and Sri Lanka migrated to Singapore and Malaysia as army clerks and merchants.) In the second half of the 20th century, Tamils from India migrated as skilled professionals to the U.S., Europe and South East Asia. A sizeable population has settled in the Silicon Valley and New Jersey. How many came to Canada, I cannot say.

Also given the riding demographics, I wouldn't be surprised if the surname "Lee" has been advantageous, i.e. voters mistaking him for being of Chinese origin.

Though I kinda wonder how the NDP (and the Tories, for that matter) would have done in SRR in 2004 had Raymond Cho not run as an independent...

I believe Lee actually is of Chinese descent on one side of his family (as is John McCallum).

And on top of everything, we mustn't forget Avi's TV career as the cornerstone to what makes him, perhaps, even more of a positively "known" quantity than Naomi.  He truly does have a disarming magic combo of lefty-pleasing grey matter and "common reach"--the kind of stuff that'd easily bring "Adam Vaughan Liberals" on-side--and excuse my boldness, but if Avi were to ultimately replace Jack as federal NDP leader, the effect could be electrifying.  Heck, even now, imagine an Avi versus Steve + Iggy in the throes of an election.

When it comes Avi's present home turf: barring a star like him, who would run against Gerard Kennedy?  (Is Rowena Santos preparing for a federal run?)

You think Byers is fine?  He seems like a bit of a weak candidate from what I could tell last year, and a bit of a loose canon.  He ended up not just losing to Hedy Fry, but also to Lorne Mayencourt and as a result he finished 3rd.  That was the first time the NDP had finished 3rd in Vancouver Centre since 2000 after having had 2 second place finishes in 2004 and 2006.

I agree that it would be best for the NDP if it considered another nominee instead if it wants to win the riding.  I think the NDP's best candidate so far has been Kennedy Stewart who did very well in 2004 and gave Hedy Fry her closet contest to date.  Stewart was quite impressive in that election.

"And on top of everything, we mustn't forget Avi's TV career as the cornerstone to what makes him,"

Wasn't his show on Newsworld cancelled about 5 years ago? Honestly, I think people are drastically overestimating how well known Avi Lewis is among the general public and as for him attracting "Adam Vaughan Liberals" (whatever the hell that is) as a successor to Jack Layton - need I remind people that Jack Layton himself was originally supposed to attract "Adam Vaughan Liberals" until he learned the hard way that if you jump through hoops to attract the Annex/Cabbagetown types as national leader of the NDP - you might win one or two more seats MAYBE. Meanwhile, the vast majority of seats that are either NDP held or winnable are blue collar ridings where people are much more attracted to economic populism and a common touch etc...

Being leader of a party is not some easy little job where just any reasonably bright person can just "wing it". It takes YEARS of practice in politics at several levels to learn how to campaign, how to handle the media, how to have an encyclopedic knowledge of just about every major area of public policy etc... I could see Avi Lewis leader after the leader after the leader after Jack Layton - once the guy has actually run for something and been elected and been through the political ringer.

Stockholm makes an important point - sometimes people in a particular circle overestimate a candidate's popularity or recognition amongst the general public.  The average Canadian probably hasn't heard of Avi Lewis.  Most of us here are familiar with him but that's because we are amongst the political geeks.  I used to watch Counterspin several years back and I thought he did a good job with it for the most part (even if he did deliberately like to get his guests riled up!) but many Canadians wouldn't be that familiar with him or that likely to vote for him.

Even Stephen Lewis, while better known and admired, is not known by as many Canadians of today's generation as he was when he used to be in politics.  Although some people above suggested he would make a strong rival against Bob Rae in Toronto Centre, realistically I don't think he would have much of an impact there as that is a safe Liberal seat, particularly now that Rae is there.  The NDP's best candidate there so far has been Michael Shapcott who ran a very respectable campaign against Bill Graham, but who nevertheless wasn't able to seriously challenge him.  The NDP may even be losing a bit of ground in Toronto Centre right now as the Conservatives, despite their incompetent campaign, managed to finish ahead of the NDP there last year after the NDP had been the 2nd place finishers in the last couple of elections.

Michael Shapcott, or another local politician, might be the best candidate to try and improve the NDP standing in TC.

I liked his stance on shutting down the tar sands, but his view on Omar Khadr (getting a "Canadian trial") was outrageous and I don't really like how he seemed to be want to "Obama-ify" the party (i.e. saying how the NDP should be renamed the Democratic Party and how there were such similarities between Obama and Layton, etc.  And he did much worse than Svend Robinson even though everyone seemed how Svend was such a bad choice and Byers would be such a star.   Byers probably under-performed more than any other NDP candidate.

Actually, I think your judgment might be too political-geeky (and, if I may say this, aging political-geeky) for its own good.  You're overlooking the fact that a whole lot of post-boomer average Canadians (our version of the "Obama demo", I suppose) know Avi Lewis from, or first clued into him through, Muchmusic.  Not Counterspin.  Muchmusic.

And that's not as shallow and Ben-Mulroney-of-the-left as it may appear--indeed, to those who lament what Muchmusic's become in recent years, Avi's an emblem of its "golden age", back when its programming was informed by certain McLuhanesque "smarts" rather than simple least-denominator pandering.  Avi Lewis was a reason why smart kids watched Much back in the day.

Yeah, it may be glib to think of Avi as a proto-Strombo without piercings and with political provenance; but it proves he might have more inherent mass-conscious (and, indeed, voter-conscious) savvy than you're bargaining on.  While it's convenient to raise the "yeah, we tried it with Layton, and look at what happened" issue, I think there may be a subtler boomer vs post-boomer (or, very roughly speaking, Hillary vs Obama) factor behind why Avi might actually be capable of succeeding where Jack didn't.

And while Avi's Much phase is years ago now--maybe that's advantageous, too, in that while it established his mass profile, he hasn't allowed it to over-define him, at the expense of all else...

I don't know if I'm missing something, but I didn't throw out Avi Lewis as a successor to Layton.  I suggested him running for the position of MP.  The reason I mention Avi Lewis rather than Naomi Klein is because I have read that Avi seems more interested in running for office, while Naomi doesn't seem interested.   Either would be great.

If there's any competition for Byers on that front, it might be Tom King in Guelph, riding electoral history notwithstanding--and significantly in the cases of both Byers and King, an extra-strong and aggressive Green campaign did more than its part to gum up the works.

How Byers might have done if the Greens turned in a more nominal effort, who knows--probably would have reclaimed second place over Mayencourt, at the very least..

I'm the one who implied him as a Layton successor/substitute--but more for the sake of hypothetical argument and against the present LibCon competition, than as something to be imposed right here, right now.  Though yes, for that to "work", it'd make much more sense if Avi ran for federal office and won in 2004, which'd have given him at least a bit of seasoning time...

I agree that Guelph and Vancouver Centre (and Central Nova for that matter) were two particular ridings where very strong Green campaigns probably damaged the NDP more than any other party - though across Canada, the increase in Green support in '08 probably damaged the Liberals most of all. All that being said, it seems clear that the so-called greens have peaked and are fast sliding into total irrelevance and will be lucky to get 3% of the vote next time. 

Yes, that's why I said above I don't think Byers was a good candidate for the NDP.  He performed less well than Svend Robinson and Kennedy Stewart and had the lowest NDP result in Van Centre since 2000.  Stewart has been the strongest NDP candidate so far in that riding.

Byers also needs to quit while he's ahead.  Even after finishing 3rd in Van Center he still was stirring the pot after the election by saying that Hedy Fry is getting on in years and probably wouldn't be running again so he would have a better chance next time.  Now as far as I know, Hedy Fry has not officially decided what she is doing in the next election yet, but hearing someone imply she will be retiring soon will make it tempting for her to run again!

As adma says though, one thing Byers did have to contend with is the Adrienne Carr effect which did triple Green support in Van Centre and may have taken away from the NDP.

I have no idea how likely it is Hedy Fry will not run. But I can't imagine Carr not running in VC again, no matter what.

If its some other Liberal running, I can see Carr picking up enough Liberal votes that the NDP candidate, whoever it is, could shoot from third.

And if both Fry and Carr are running, which seems the most likely possibility, then I can't see the NDP candidate having a very good shot. But even IF that is true, prospective candidates have to position themselves regardless of whether or not Fry is running.

All of which means squat, would be my guess.

Surprisingly enough, even high spending Green campaigns generally do not run veru serious ground campaigns. Including May's 2 year running ULTRA high spending Central Nova campaign in that NOT category.

But Carr's campaign DID spend substantially on voter contact. I have no idea how effective they were- but regardless, most likely they learned from that effort.

Carr ran her campaign by claiming that she was running 2nd in Vancouver Centre and was able to fool enough people into believing it that even people like journalist David Aiken predicted that she would win the riding.  In the end she finished 4th and so she did not have the result she wanted, but she did dramatically increase the Green vote share in the riding.

And yes, I believe Carr has already announced she is running there again.  I haven't been able to find out yet what Hedy Fry is doing - all I know is that the Liberal nomination for Vancouver Centre has not been scheduled yet.

Given that polls haven't yet shown that kind of tailspin negative momentum and, in fact, the Greens are so far more or less holding on to their '08 share numbers, I wouldn't jump to that kind of (wishful?) conclusion--yet.

And you may also need an assist from Elizabeth May resigning her leadership on behalf of a no-name and/or the Greens being barred from the next election debates to cinch something like a Mel Hurtig-esque lucky-to-get 3%.  Plus, perhaps, raising the minimum voting age to 30 so that the millennial idealists who've come into political age thinking that it's cool rather than granola-fringy to vote Green will be factored out.

Why don't we take a look at the Green popular vote in the most recent BC and NS elections before we make that kind of assessment, adma.

Hard to tell how much the NDP was un-damaged.  In fact, in Ontario, I wouldn't single out just Guelph: remember how the NDP vote share fell in a whole vast slew of seats which weren't in Northern Ontario or existing "holds"--and that's in spite of Jack's "I'm running for Prime Minister" tack.  I'd chalk much of that up to the Green rise--though not even directly due to eMay; remember how the '07 provincial election was the first absolute tangible demonstration of the "Greens stealing from NDP" dynamic, and the momentum from that probably spilled over federally the next year.

I'm also wondering how much the perceived tussle between NDP and Green might have turned voters off either party, in a "screw you, we're voting Liberal" sense (an early case of that might have been BEY's Minna-Churley-Harris situation in '06).  Which parallels the 93/97/00 Tory/ReformAlliance battles handing the "screw you" vote to the Liberals, or even Ontario's '99 Liberal vs NDP "strategic vote" battles handing a lot of "screw yous" to the Tories...

I'd even be cautious about using those as guidelines, in part because the respective provincial NDP parties are sitting upon more of a position of "electable strength" than their federal counterparts--thus rendering the Greens superfluous.  (It's only because of the continued dead-cat-bounce from 2001's Dosanjih catastrophe that the Greens have seemed vestigially un-superfluous in BC.)

Conversely on your behalf, those examples might be a fair argument for either Jane Sterk or Ryan Watson as the perfect kinds of eMay replacements to take the Greens below 3%

Indeed, my "beware of judging provincial results" logic could just as well apply to the NDP, too, i.e. their abysmal results in the last New Brunswick provincial election couldn't have foretold that the federal party would cross the 15% threshold in every New Brunswick seat in 2008...

Sorry adma, when I looked over that comment of mine it sounded a bit uppity, and I know I wrote it in too much haste.  Let me take another try, even though I thought you did a good job of arguing it.

I agree with you that the appearance of electability for the NDP makes people less likely to vote Green, and it's not only provincially, but in certain federal seats as well.

There are spending studies out there that seem to show that the NDP targets its spending a lot more to "winnable" seats.  The seats where the Greens had overtaken the NDP were by and large seats the NDP wasn't targetting, but the Greens either were or they just benefitted from being the latest flavour of the month none-of-the-above party.

You suggest that young people are attracted to voting Green, but I would argue that's based probably more on the party's name than its platform, as they would quickly discover if they read it.  On the other hand, young people aren't repelled from voting NDP either.

The two target seats we discussed (Guelph and Vancouver Centre) are a different matter, but Debater isn't arguing from any knowledge or interest about what's going on in them (and unlike you I don't think he's older ... I think he just sounds like a know-it-all, except that all the 'knowledge' sounds like stuff he read on the web rather than being out across the country working on campaigns).  So that's why I discount what he says pretty well right off the bat.  He gives the NDP advice off the top of his head, but really doesn't want the NDP to do well, so I pretty much ignore it now.

In terms of Guelph, the Greens had the advantage last time of it being a by-election riding, in the way the NDP used to once upon a time, and in fact also did this time in Westmount-Ville Marie and St-Lambert for example.  However, their candidate is not running again, having been a bit burned by E.Me's "strategic voting" communications fiasco.  E.Me has also pretty much indicated that she doesn't want to take out a Liberal, which sends a subliminal signal to the local riding that they're not going to be much of a priority this time around.  I'd guess that in a general election, and without having all those bodies they were able to bring in from across the province last time, they'll have some trouble maintaining that vote.

I also think that for most working folks (never mind unemployed folks, which includes a LOT of young people), economic security issues are a lot more top of mind and will trump environmental consciousness for the next little while.

As for Vancouver Centre, it will continue to be a 4-way fight.  The advantage the NDP has over the Greens (apart from the economy) is that the Greens are constantly inflating expectations for their performance and then falling far short of them.  They can only cry wolf for so long.  On the other hand, there is going to be some continued fallout for the NDP over the last provincial campaign.  But the Greens really underperformed expectations provincially, and there are some wounds that need healing inside the environment movement too, from what I can tell at a distance.

The Green Party's polling results in national polls vary widely depending on whether the particular pollster prompts with the party name or not, and in any event, their vote is so small that it's going to see a lot of variability in the reporting, especially of subsamples.  But BC is famous for another pretty reliably spurious between-election finding, and that's the horse-race numbers for the federal Liberals.  They always wind up underperforming out there by the time the election is held relative to where they were between elections, and so wind up being unable to win many seats outside the City of Vancouver proper.

Finally, if Ignatieff continues to bomb and make Liberals nervous into the fall, then we are looking at a pretty fluid situation going forward.  Fortune favours the bold and the smart.  We'll have to see who is smarter and who is bolder.

But Tom King and Michael Byers were both very strong, very credible candidates, both of whom could be expected to improve their vote share on a second outing.  Hedy may or may not run again, but at age 67 she can't run forever.  Then the race will take on a different complexion, and having running once already may help.

That's up to you - but I think you will find my analysis is fairly well-informed and objective for the most part and that some of the insight I provide into certain ridings could prove correct in the next election.

Let's try to stay away from the personal criticism too, please.  I am no more of a 'know-it-all' then you, and as you admitted above, you can sound a bit uppity.

No, I haven't worked 'on the ground' in B.C. - I have only done so in Ontario and Quebec because those are my 2 provinces of knowledge and experience.  So yes, I have never worked in Vancouver Centre - my comments come from having studied the numbers and races closely over the years and heard from others who have worked in them.  I suspect that most of us don't have personal knowledge of working in all 308 ridings.

Actually quite a few polls show the so-called Greens fading away into nothingness. A year ago a lot of polls had them at 11-12% nationally and the environment was the number one issue etc... and EMay was getting ridiculously uncritical glowing-to-the-point-of-sycophantic media coverage - even with that and even with a dreadful Liberal campaign that sent many Liberals searching for an alternative - the Greens still only got 6.7% of the vote - way below what the polls were saying. Now most polls have them at 5 or 6%, the environmental has vanished as an issue as everyone focuses on the economy and the media is finally starting to wake up to the fact that EMay is a tedious sanctimonious bore and what minute amount of publicity she gets these days mostly seems to make her an object of ridicule. For those reasons I predict that in the next election the Greens will lose half their votes and do worse than they did under Jim Harris.

I see the inevitible thread drift is going on!

Let's keep this thread about candidates in particular ridings, and comments about the pseudo-Green Party and policies to other threads, shall we?

How very sensible of you, David.  Perhaps you could bring us up to date on any speculation about candidates for CCMV?

Re: Kenora, I wonder if racism played a role as the NDP candidate was a FN woman.  I don't know the region at all, but looking at poll-by-poll results for Kenora it appears the NDP won some FN communities and the Liberal incumbent won others, with the Tories doing poorly.  In predominantly white communities it appears the Tory cleaned up.

Overall the turnout was down 9 percentage points.  The Conservative raw vote went up a bit, as did the Green vote slightly, but the Libs and NDP were way down.  Without knowing exactly what polls that happened in, or whether it dropped evenly, my bet would be the ID thing on reserve.

"Re: Kenora, I wonder if racism played a role as the NDP candidate was a FN woman."

You mean it would be racist if First Nation peoples in the riding voted disproportionately for the NDP candidate just because she was FN?

I think its obvious he is referring to how well the Conservative candidate did in white communities.

This is a common dynamic in the West where a sufficiently large proportion of the population is FN, and when the Liberal and/or NDP candidates are FN [as is frequently, if not mostly, the case].

My observation from having lived in the situation in both BC and NS is that the same thing would happen here if the reserves were as large. The closer you are to a substantial FN community in NS, the more it feels just like I lived with in BC. But since the FN communities here are smaller the 'orbit' of that racism effect is also smaller... far too small to have the same effect on a whole federal riding: and as far as I can see, even too small to have the same effect on the provincial ridings that are 4 to 5 times smaller.

From what I've heard in Churchill and Western Arctic, the NDP tends to do better among the white population while the Liberals tend to win the FN reserves - thanks to the usual Liberal tactic of "hey chief give us xx number of votes or INAC will never pave another road in this community".

And a footnote on these ridings with large FN populations: turnout means absolutely EVERYTHING to the prospects of the NDP candidate.

The big improvements in advance polling over the last few elections are a huge opportunity we have not systematically tapped. I've done it on a one-off basis. It ain't rocket science. Volunteer drivers is one of the easiest things to get in a campaign. So you line up your drivers, and when you call households in the FN communities you don't bother with voter identification. It's, "we'll take you down to the advance poll, right now."

This should be systemitized across the country where there are concentrations of predominately NDP oriented non-voters.

This is getting to be a long thread, but since someone higher up asked about Taras Natyshak in Essex, I thought a nice way to end it might be to include his recent Facebook update from yesterday:

Now *that's* how to do pre-election work!  Bravo Taras.  Go get 'em.

I don't think Susan Whelan will be running again - her time is probably over now and her performance in the last couple of elections has not been strong.  The most exciting thing that happened to her last year was a visit from Justin Trudeau during the election, but it simply highlighted the charisma gap between her and the new generation of up and comers like Trudeau.

From what I have heard, she has lost the fire to run again.