Bob Rae steps down, Iggy likely the new Liberal leader

Or we ask the GG to see if the new Liberal leader can hold the support of the House.

We are still, come January 26th, only 16 days into this Parliament.  The election will only have been 3 1/2 months ago.  Just because the PM is not viable doesn't meen the Parliament isn't viable.

"Time-out" does not mean start again.

And this author is a master of the horror genre.

You don't have kids do you 

It's not just the wealthy in Alberta who vote Conservative. It's often people from have-not, depressed provinces and 3rd world countries (highly influenced by Calgary's oil-industry Americans - 10% of the population) who vote Conservative, and surprisingly, less pioneer-stock Albertans' voting Cons than you'd imagine as more than a few of those prairie folks have been around long enough to see the virtual slow motion destruction of their province.

Why do those who do vote Cons, vote against their own interests? They've seen worse times, and, naturally, want to keep their oil-tethered jobs (secretaries up north at $150 thous a year making more than doctors, no Alberta taxes, etc.), which they see as under attack from the left. Environmental destruction of the northern water and our southern glaciers and snowpack melt be damned; they all plan on retiring somewhere else, anyway, so why would they be worried about Alberta's dire water situation coming in a few decades?

I think this is wishful thinking. If Ignatieff thinks he can win an election over the budget he will simply not accept the GG's invitation to form a coalition government with the NDP. He'll say "let the people decide."  

And if Harper's budget is popular, Ignatieff will support it grudgingly and point out all its flaws. 

Right now I can't envision a scenario where the Coalition actually takes power. It's either a continuation of the unstable Harper minority government or an election. Harper's prorogation of Parliament has curtailed any chance of their being a Coalition government. The Governor Generals decision will have likely killed the chance to have a Coalition government. This is profoundly undemocratic but it's the sad reality we've arrived at. History will show that the GG acted unfairly in favour of one party over another.

In any case, Iggy's choice now is between dissolving the coalition or keeping it as an instrument to keep Harper honest in thr future.

Iggy Thumbscrews as Liberal leader (and Bush/Harper clone) means the Coalition is dead.

Does Bob Rae count?

(Hey, maybe he's to socialism what Lucien Bouchard was to separatism)

I disagree. I think that there is no way whatsoever that the Liberals want an election called in January. Not in a million years. Ignatieff is totally green and has to get established as leader. The Liberal Party is virtually bankrupt and would not even be able to afford a campaign plane or to run a single ad!

 So what if Harper makes no concesions at all and "dares" Ignatieff to vote it down? If I'm Iggy and I have three choices - have an election that is almost certain to lead to a Tory majority? Support a budget that has no concessions and be humiliated and pave the way to being the fall guy for a cascade of reactionary policies from Harper or stick with the coalition and become PM of Canada?

 I'd take door number 3!

Hmm politically speaking in terms of the party politics you may be right. But in fact the Governor General made no statement in favour of the coalition, or against it. There was never a confidence motion, and the government was not defeated. The question asked by Harper was of an entirely different order.

Nor do I think it was easy for Harper to force the situation, since this meeting, which people seemed to think would take about 15 minutes took 45, and that suggests that some discussion was had. So, at least from a legal perspective and political perspective, the GG has made no decision on the issue of the coalition, nor has she even been asked to do so.

People keep bringing up this idea of the Liberals [or Iggy] wanting an election.

Find us ONE Liberal in the know will say privately that there is an appetetite for an election. We're not talking about in the abstract: that given little details like being worse off than broke, they want an election.

If Harper makes no concesions, Conservative popularity would take a nosedive. In that unlikely case, the Liberals, NDP, and BQ would all go for an election.

But Harper is not stupid. He's going to make concesions.

And I think Iggy wants desparately out of this coalition. The Conservative meme about getting in bed with separatists hurts the Libs hard in BC and in the Atlantic.

Whoops, looks like we already have a thread on this.  Let's continue here, and I'll reopen this thread when that one is filled up. :)