Another Toronto municipal election thread

I wonder what happened - bad polling? 

Who will succeed Kyle Rae? [6]

This would be a perfect place for Helen Kennedy to run. Her background as head of Egale will resonate well and she has a lot of connections with the blue rinse crowd in Rosedale thanks to her friendship with Sen. nancy Ruth etc...

  This is an outsider's perspective (I live in Kingston) but I would guess that Tory saw that his campaign manager (?) from 2003, Rocco Rossi, is running and decided that Rossi would draw from much the same voting block that Tory did. That plus Smitherman (who is arguably someone who could draw votes from both the centre-right and centre-left) running made the race a lot more difficult for Tory. Just a guess

I would say that is better than a guess. The Globe (I think it was the globe) had an article about a successful reception for Smitherman at the Albany Club a few weeks back, which is a traditional Toronto Tory gathering ground. It seems that much of the old school Red Tory PC Toronto estabishment is gathering around Tory. Word that the guy (i can't rememebr his name right now) who managed his 2004 PC leadership bid was backing Smitherman probably showed Tory that he didn't have room in the race. Rumours had had it that Smitherman/Tory had a deal that only one of them would run to avoid splitting the centre/centre-right vote for a few months back as well.

First poll on the mayoralty race is out!

I just heard Rocco Rossi on CBC speaking with The Empire Club (puke!). His platform planks as of right now are to stop Transit City and conduct a full "budget review" and to eliminate bike lanes on major streets. I hope this guy chokes on duck confit.

Smitherman's not much better as his major platform announcement has been to sell off Toronto Hydro, which I believes operates at a profit (I'm looking into that if anyone can help).

I kind of hope that Giambrone, or some other person with a clue and a chance, runs.

The big issue now? Sleepy transit employees!

From what my Liberal friends have told me, Rocco's speech to the Empire Club seemed like a clear sign he is going to try and paint himself as the centre-right standard bearer, apparently some Liberals that were still undecided between Smitherman and Rossi are all going towards Smitherman now thanks to that speech. If no other big-C conservative runs, I expect Rossi to continue to try and tack to the right.

In regards to Giambrone, who is set to run, I kinda wish the left could attract someone from outside city hall to be the "name" left-wing candidate. I like Giambrone personally, but I have a sense that too many non-partisan voters will looks at Giambrone as David Miller the younger and be annoyed with his TTC chairmanship. And the city hall lifer Joe Pantalone can't exactly run as a change candidate. Someone who represented solid left-wing values but who wasn't attached to city hall would be good, Ironically considering I hope Cathy Crowe beats him, I would have maybe voted for Glen Murray if he ran as a non-partisan progressive.

What a dismal field this is turning out to be. Adam Giambrone is in, which might be nice were it not for the less than stellar results of the TTC the last few years. At least he's never let a billion dollars go out the door for nothing like George Smitherman. Joe Pantalone is still Joe Who to most Torontonians after decades on council which doesn't speak well for his potential mayor. Rocco Rossi, of course, is just out of his mind. I wonder if David Miller hadn't stuck around he wouldn't have won re-election depite his difficulties.

Giambrone has got to have some sort of secret death wish to be running in this environment. His biggest claim to fame is being chair of the TTC at a time when everyone hates the TTC. I've said it before and i'll say it again - all that is going to happen is that $2 million will have to get sucked in to finance a hopeless demolition derby of a campaign - money that would otherwise go to progressive candidates for city council. All for what? so that he can get trounced, face unemployment, his seat on council will probably be captured by some big "L" Liberal Mario Silva acolyte, and on top of everything else there will be divisive battles between him and Pantalone for the support of New Democrats.

I hope I'm wrong, but I think this is a one way ticket to disaster.

The 2010 election has a lot of similarties to the 2003 campaign. In that election an unpopular incumbent chose not to run for reelection. While a centrist dominated the aerly polls, most of the incumbent's workers and base went to an ideologically similar candidate who had headed a generally despised service organization. That candidate came within a few points of winning.

In that election it was Lastman who was retiring and Tory who was the annointed successor on the right. Tory was most recently at Rogers, a phone and cable company that has a far worse public reputation than the TTC. If Tory could come within a few points of winning, I see no reason Giambrone can't at least do the same. In Rossi and Smitherman, Giambrone also faces far weaker opposition than Tory faced in Hall and Milller.

Also: Giambrone's YouTube video for anyone who hasn't seen it yet.

I think him running is a very shrewd career move for him.

If he stays on council, here are the outcomes (in my mind):

a) a Smitherman-esque mayor is elected, it's not particularly likely that he'll be kept in a position of prominence.  Consider it a half-step back.

b) a true right-winger is elected as Mayor, he'll definitely have no prominent role.  Without a true party-based opposition on council, he'll be jockeying for clout/attention/press with a number of other councillors, many who are perennial critics that really aren't seen as credible by the vast majority of Torontonians (plus, few people pay attention to municipal politics anyway.)  total step back.

He runs for mayor:

a) he actually wins and ends up mayor.  I think it's unlikely myself, but considering this field, it plays to him (I agree with SimonP on that.)  Smitherman is the biggest name in the race, but not as big a name as he and his supporters thinks he is. Rossi is a wild card, he could be a force to be reckoned with, or he could be John Nunziata.  Mammolitti (sp?) will be an also ran that siphons off Rossi votes.  I've always liked Pantalone, but really, who is gonna vote for him in large numbers?  And of those people, are they really the type that would have voted for Giambrone anyway?  Probably not.

b)  he loses.  (The most likely outcome to me.  I could see him coming in second or third.)  He's built city-wide momentum, recognition, prominence beyond what a councillor could do in a term.  He's a year or so away from a provincial election, which gives him time to organize an election campaign well in-advance of Oct 2011 and run for MPP.  If he wins, he's got way more influence and authority than he would have as councillor.  (If he loses, he's back at zero, but still has significant recognition.)

"I've always liked Pantalone, but really, who is gonna vote for him in large numbers?  And of those people, are they really the type that would have voted for Giambrone anyway?  Probably not."

There are a lot of New Democrats who live in Trinity-Spadina who would be very conflicted about whether to support Pantalone or Giambrone.

Are you supporting Pantalone, Stockholm?

I don't know....I think my inclination is to sit on my hands until October and then support whichever of Pantalone or Giambrone is still in the race and/or clearly the stronger progressive candidate. I'm very concerned about how much a train wreck this years municipal elections promise to be. We are stuck with not one but TWO NDP councillors running for mayor each of whom is (for very different reasons) totally unelectable. Meanwhile we will have not one but TWO people on the left each trying to raise the $2 million it will take to run a serious campaign and with fratricidal conflict as they each fight over the support of NDP members and unions etc...

In the end all we're going to get are two council seats currently held by New Democrats being lost, as much as $4 million being flushed down the toilet by these hopeless mayoral campaigns - and a lot of bad feelings from people on the left being being fought over by Giambrone and Pantalone.

I wish someone would present me with a scenario for the municipal elections this fall that don't involve total catastrophe.

My comment about New Democrats in Trinity-Spadina being conflicted about Giambrone vs. Pantalone is simply that Joe Pantalone has been a city councillor for the western half of Trinity-Spadina for the 25 years, he ran provincially for the NDP in '87 and the people who work on his municipal campaigns are the same people who work for Rosario Marchese and Olivia Chow. Now even Jack Layton and Olivia Chow are forced to be 100% neutral for the entire mayoral campaign. How do you support? The loyal New Democrat who was with you on city council for 25 years and whose ward is one half of Trinity-Spadina or do you support another loyal New Democrat who just served as President of the federal NDP for two terms. The only solution is to sit on your hands.

Which, in a way, is not unlike the Hall vs Miller situation in 2003.

And Adam Giambrone is running for student council president.

Is it too late to draft Olivia Chow?

Well this ad definitely resonating with university student activists I know.

Welcome back, Mycroft.

Hopefully whoever advised Giambrone that that ad was a good idea will be consigned to stuffing envelopes for the duration of the campaign.

Is transit going to be the wedge issue of the next municipal election?

Christopher Hume, speaking of Rocko Rossi:

Rocco Rossi will go down as this year's Stephen LeDrew. Hope that doesn't mean he'll get a show on CFRB and CP24.

I'm not so sure about that.  He seems to be solidifying the small-"c" conservative vote behind him so far.

Rob Ford and/or Minnan-Wong may yet throw their hats in.

I see Ford as being more "fringe-y" than Rossi.  Rossi has more "Yonge/Bayview Corridor" cred I think. 

I thought it was funny. Those who don't think it's funny will, for the most part, give him credit for trying to be funny.

Remember, Miller was able to distinguish himself from Hall with a wedge issue (the airport), a whimsical broom logo and ads that spoke (among other things) about his "extraordinary hair".

As a denizen of said corridor, I resent that remark.

Though in Ford's case, we're not talking about LeDrew-type "fringe-y"; more like a Toronto version of, say, Jim Pankiw--if he ran, he'd have a substantial enough bottom-feeding populist-teabag mandate, I'm supposing.

This year's version of LeDrew isn't Ford or Rossi; it's Sara Thomson.

There's a webpoll up on the mayor's race at http://www.680news.com/

Didn't Ford say he was willing to support Tory?  Why would he have a problem with Rossi who so far seems further to the right than Tory.

I am very interested to see which (if any) current councillors attend Giambrone's launch party. I will then compare that count to the substantial number of councillors who originally supported David Miller in 2003.  That count was a telling sign of the eventual outcome, even though Miller was polling very low when he launched. City Council is a parliament with little to no party discipline where one can only get results by working councillors one by one. Newbies (especially well-known bullies like George Smitherman) will be at a loss to succeed in that environment.

I went to Giambrone's launch. It was packed so it was hard to see who was there. I did pass Howard Moscoe at one point. Andrew Cash was also there. I did see a lot of NDP staffers and faces I recognized from labour. It does look like Giambrone will be getting most of the central central party support, if indirectly.

That webpoll was depressing - Rocco Rossi comes out way in front.

I cast my vote for "someone else."

Early on  it was a tie between Smitherman and Rossi, with Giambrone not far behind. Then in an hour Rossi's vote doubled. It was pretty clear his supporters were ballot stuffing, or running a votebot.

In terms of councillors at the meeting, I read that Maria Augimeri and Glenn De Baeremaeker were also at Giambrone's launch.

I don't see the point of paying attention to unscientific online polls given their self-selected pool of respondents. Nor do I pay much attention to the poll Rob Ford bought that shows he's in third place:)

Mammoliti weighs in:

Mammoliti didn't "move to the right". He was elected by accident in the 1990 sweep and proved to be both incredibly stupid and a major-league bigot. The only good thing about him running for Mayor is that someone else can win his seat on Council.

Sadly, Mammoliti has implied that he'll pull out of the mayor's race and run for re-election in his council seat if it becomes clear he can't win the big job. Unless he makes a bigger idiot of himself than usual the impact will be to raise his profile in his riding even further and also ensure a divided opposition as anyone with a smidgen of political ambition who lives in his ward and can afford the deposit will run in hopes of winning an "open seat".

In happier news, it looks more likely that Rob Ford will run.

Adam Giambrone has room to grow. Unless there is a credible right-winger in the race, Smitherman will have clear sailing. Maybe there will be an equivalent right-wing posse of Rossi, Ford, Mammollitti et al.  That might help.  I have no hope that Pantalone will help out by withdrawing. It took Joe three times running (sabotoging fellow left-wingers each time) to get himself elected and he shows no sign of having elevated his concern for the common leftist good since that time.

Here is what I predict will happen with Pantalone. First of all objectively speaking, he would probably make the best actual mayor of any of the candidates. He knows city hall like the back of his hand and he has been deputy mayor and is very respected by the city staff and seems to have good lines of communication with people on council across the political spectrum. But as well know, the things that make you a good mayor are not always the things that make you a good candidate. Unfortunately, he's probably not all that attractive as a candidate. He's been around seemingly forever, he's about 5'2" and has an Italian accent and doesn't have that much profile across the city - whether we like it or not these are things that work against someone as a candidate. I think he will never be able to raise the money or the support to run a really serious campaign. I think he will stay in the race until Fall, then either Giambrone will have self-destructed and Pantalone stays in as the only progressive candidate, OR, Smitherman is so far ahead that it doesn't matter if both Giambrone and Pantalone run since neither can win anyways OR Giambrone is within striking distance of the lead and Pantalone is in single digits - in which case I suspect he will magnanimously pull out, endorse Adam, get kudos from everyone in the NDP and then run in the next provincial election.

Dave Meslin has 5 candidates to watch: Kristyn Wong-Tam (Ward 27), Neethan Shan (Ward 42), Hema Vyas (Ward 18), Mohamed Dhanani (Ward 26) and Karen Sun (Ward 19)

Elected to Queen's Park, at the tender age of, er, 28. I don't think Georgio can afford to throw too many stones in a glass house.

Ford has to go some to beat Pankiw. Ford's a penny-pinching clown, but Pankiw is a nasty piece of work who needs help.

And it's pretty clear where he'd stand – Davenport. Tony Reprecht is a talented pol (for a Liberal), but he isn't getting any younger. At 67 by the time he next runs (if he doesn't retire at the next election), he'll be almost double Adam's age. The optics aren't going to be great. A little over 1500 vote-margin between the Liberals and the NDP could definitely be bridged by the right candidate with name recognition. Adam has that, in spades. With the organizational muscle and boots on the ground, Ruprecht or whoever is going to feel they've been hit by a freight train.

Giambrone has a history of making audacious and what generally appeared to be extremely premature runs for office - whether it's running for the presidency of the NDP at 24 or running for city council, and pulling it off (though it took two tries before he was elected to council - at 25) so it would be foolish to write off his mayoral run - and despite an inauspicious beginning he does have time. The YouTube video was not a brilliant move but it does appear that he's been sandbagged to some degree over the TTC by a combination of bad luck and the media piling on (Smitherman attacking Giambrone the day he announced - when other politicians would have let him "have his day" was a clever move but if Smitherman continued to re-enforce his bulldog reputation he could end up hurting himself).

Smitherman's made a deal with Ralph Lean to bring in the same disastrous policy of Public-Private Partnerships that the McGuinty government has employed in public works projects - a policy that actually makes it more expensive to build public works and allows the private sector to pocket a very handsome profit with minimal risk. Giambrone needs to go after Smitherman on this - taking for example the disaster that P3s (called PFI in the UK) have been for British Rail and the London Underground, for instance, not to mention the P3 fiasco in Smiterman's Ministry of Health under his watch. And by all means go after Smitherman for the E-Health scandal.

Smitherman is certainly the front-runner, but he also seems the most likely to completely self-destruct on the campaign trail.

ETA: OK it's probably Mammoliti (or maybe Ford if he runs) but they'd never be anywhere remotely close to victory anyway.

Long term musing: Ford goes for mayor. Ford loses. Ford becomes the next CPC candidate in Etobicoke Lakeshore.

Is it so impossible?

...and then loses there.

Yup. But would be typical of the delusion that Ford operates under, that he would somehow triumph, and that the MSM (and the facts) just get in his way.

Why Etobicoke Lakeshore?  It's not his constituency--besides, he's too crude for the Kingsway types, the Patrick Boyer types, etc.

Etobicoke Centre (where he actually lives, where the long-term Tory history is actually stronger, and which his father once represented in part provincially) or Etobicoke North (which--at least in old boundaries--is his present municipal turf in part, and probably most disposed to his variety of "low Toryism") are more likely.

You've got a good point about Etobicoke Lakeshore. In any case, Patrick Boyer has got the lock on the Tory nomination for forever, and an interloper like Ford would be chased north of Dundas.

While he'd have a better shot at Etobicoke Centre, Axel Kuhn has a nice little rivalry going with Boris Wrzesnwskyj and he's not going to give that up any time soon. Kuhn can point that he's narrowed the gap with Boris to just over 10% last time and send Ford on his way.

Etobicoke North would seem to offer the most prospects for Ford, with a revolving door of Tory candidates in the last few elections and thus no established candidate angry at an interloper. However, the riding has changed substantially even since Doug Ford's time. The Liberals were able to very effectively get out the vote (Italians, Ukranians, Punjabis, etc.) last time around even with a parachute candidate like Kirsty Duncan, and she's continuing the tradition of building strong links with these communities. Ford would grab a large share of soft Tories, but I'm guessing he'd turn off as many as he'd win over.

Thinking upon it, he'd get hammered anywhere in Etobicoke, really. The Liberals are just too strong.

I don't think the federal (or provincial) Tories would touch Rob Ford with a ten foot pole. With all his bigoted comments and past embarrassments - he would be bad for their image nationwide and it would all get dredged up.

Though considering the recent record (and even accounting for Duncan's parachute stigma), for CPC to hit the 30% mark last time was quite good, indeed--and remember how Rob Ford's been surprisingly solidly reelected twice over in spite of the demographic shift.  True, municipal turnout tends to be miserable and incumbent-favouring via autopilot; but still, I suspect that however ironic this may sound, Ford's got a certain anti-elite draw among the "little guy" ethnic class as well.  Maybe not enough to win; but enough to hope, however quixotically.

Look at it this way: he'd turn off as many as he'd win over anywhere, at least within the 416.  But he has the most "chance" (of bearing the standard, if not of winning) wherever there's the fewest pointy-headed elites.  Kind of analogous to the old Communist/National Front electoral synergy within inpoverished Parisian suburbs...

The federal Tories might not touch Ford but I think the provincial Tories are desperate enough to let him hop on board. I mean, how could they turn down Ford when they already have Randy Hillier in caucus?

aka the prov pcs had fords father as an mpp so i guess this would be a 2nd generaton mpp sort of like others who have graced the leg

I don't understand why "Italians and Ukrainians" are included as part of the demographic changes that supposedly hurt Rob Ford and the Conservatives, given that those communities have lived in Etobicoke long before Rob Ford was first elected to office.

And I agree that Etobicoke North probably has more of the "Toronto Sun" demographic than anywhere else in the 416 at this point (Sue Ann Levy's Sun affiliation probably made her too "low Tory" for the burghers of St. Paul's).

If anything it seems the Hudak Tories are even more "Rush Limbaugh-esque" than the Harris Tories were, and certainly more than their federal counterparts.  Rob Ford would fit right in.  He is our very own Glenn Beck.

LP i think that Hudak is actually dalton light.  how the times have changed dalton was once blue light. he is now more blue than the blues.  he implements legislation for  social policy but then does not fund them. maybe just maybe a few more fords from the right and kormoses from the left could keep dalton honest.

no keep ford at city hall. he will be a great member of team smitherman

I should clarify. There have been significant demographic changes in the riding (a large number of Somalis in the southern part, for example) but no-one has been able to reel these new ethnic groups in and get them to vote for them en masse (or vote at all, in some cases). At least, not yet.

The Italians and Ukranians have been there for a long time, but the Liberals have become experts at making links with these communities, and many voters in the riding vote Liberal without having to even think twice about it. While this could well hurt Ford, even the make-up of the established areas of the riding is changing, as parents either die or move into retirement homes. It`s not the factor it was, but it could still hurt him.

And not to get too off-off topic, but I think there hasn`t been a riding created that Sue-Ann could have won. While her low Toryism would have got applause in a relatively conservative riding like Etobicoke North, some eyebrows would have been raised when they heard mention of her wife …

Yes, it would seem that in "canada's most multi-cultural city" you still must be sufficiantly waspy with acceptable Imperial English to be considered "electable" as mayor.

I  don't agree with the 'waspy' at all, but fluent command of the english language is a preference on my part. It's not my primary concern, but all else being equal, I would take it into consideration. Is there a problem with this?

Sorry to track back to the Ward 27 race, but wanted to share the presser for another new face in the race to replace Rae. Joel is a good friend, a stalwart in the community and one I would consider to be a pretty strong contender in this busy race

Toronto... Joel Dick has filed his nomination papers for the position of city councillor for Ward 27 in the upcoming municipal election.

 "The opportunity to speak to the wide range of serious issues facing Toronto and Ward 27 in the next years influenced my decision," stated Joel, a former school board trustee candidate. "There is much that I can do to continue Kyle Ray's strong advocacy for our community. As a council, we must be focussed on decisions that will determine the fiscal and social health of the City of Toronto in the years ahead. 

Joel, active in the community, has volunteered with many groups including Lawyers Feed the Hungry, Our Homes (a group dedicated to providing affordable housing), Downtown Legal Services (the University of Toronto poverty law clinic), and the Moss Park Children's Hockey League. As well, he has served as an adjudicator on the Toronto Licensing Tribunal.

In addition to his Bachelor of Arts and law degrees, Joel also holds two Masters degrees: a Master of Arts in International Relations from the University of Toronto and a Master of Arts degree in Peace Studies from AMBS in Indiana. Joel, a lawyer who practices civil litigation, has lived in the ward for 10 years.

Oh joy. Looks like TTC workers are going to annoy people into voting for right-wingers.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/toronto/ttc-employees-poised-to-work-to-rule-after-being-told-to-shape-up/article1459501/

These TTC workers have got to be NUTS? All this will accomplish is make the public even angrier at them and probably lead to the election of a municipal administration that is even more hostile and in any case I really don't see what the justification for it is? Who would this "work to rule" campaign be directed at? The public for daring to express any dissatisfaction? The TTC for daring to say that customer service could be better? Who?

I think that if the TTC workers start to "work to rule" a lot of people's reaction will be "isn't that what they do all the time anyways? what difference will it make?"

I suppose that the only possible good that can come of this (and this is 1% chance of happening) is if Giambrone goes on the attack against the TTC workers union for suggesting something so absurd - and it gives him his "Sister Souljah" moment and gets to show that he is willing to stand up to the union if needs be.

Joe has an accent. As do most people that Anglophones quickly dismiss as not having "fluent command of the english langauge".

The union has nothing to do with this action. It seems to be the initiative of some transit operators. Those workers might not have the election of your favored brand of candidate for mayor in mind as their primary concern. Typical of your ilk of NDPer, you take labour's support for granted while backhanding them under your breath to 'broaden the tent'.

I can only imagine the abuse that TTC employes have been taking from a self-rightous, anti-labour public whipped into a frenzy by media making big noise about two incedences. Most TTC employees are really good. People like to talk about the one bad interaction that they had with a ticket-taker or bus driver. These same people don't even acknowledge the employees that do a good job. The people who drive buses and take tickets are not robots or slaves.

As do a very large percentage of voters.

I wonder if John Sewell would do in Ward 27? Is his law office in this ward or in 28?

Which is just one of the reasons that it is odd that accents make Toronto mayoral candidates less 'electable'...

I'm sure the abuse goes both ways. I've witnessed TTC employees putting up with a lot of shit, but I've also witnessed a lot of TTC employees treating the public with total indifference verging on contempt. Whatever the case may be, I would like to know what the strategy is for having a wild cat work to rule campaign? What exactly is that supposed to accomplish? Let's say hypothetically the TTC employees decide to go on a "work to rule" campaign of refusing to offer assistance to anyone and purposely doing their jobs as slowly as possible - in what way is that supposed to make me have a more favourable opinion of them???

I'm sorry but from a purely strategic perspective, this is an unwinnable issue for the TTC employees. The way the public sees it is that we the public pay to use the system every time we pay a fare and through our taxes. The employees, when all is said and done are paid to be be there. People will always expect a higher standard of behaviour from the providers of a service than they do from the users of a service.

His office is on Baldwin St., in Adam Vaughan's (and my) ward.

Ward 27 has become a very crowded field already.  I just met with a supporter of Kristyn Wong-Tam on the weekend.  She sounds like a very good candidate.

I think Sewell might be interested in running again.  He has just started writing a column for the Metro.  Though maybe he can do progressives a favor and run against Jane Pitfield in Ward 29 (didn't Sewell represent some of that area years ago?)

How old is Sewell now? I know he was first elected in 1969 so I'm guessing that he must be close to 80?

John Sewell is 69 or 70 - about the same age as Howard Moscoe, who announced he is running again (he is being challenged by the notorious Rob Davis).

Seven candidates now for Ward 27. If more candidates join the fray, anyone with any sort of organization, volunteers, charisma and ideas is going to have a decent shot. I should declare I know Susan Gapka, so take my opinion with that in mind.

Interestingly, Rob Ford has not declared yet if he's running again in Ward 2. Is he seriously considering going for Mayor? How late do sitting councillors generally leave it until declaring their candidacies?

The vacancy in Ward 27 has caused a dogfight amongst numerous contenders. Amongst the New Democrats, Joel Dick is an obvious opportunist who's been around for a long time and willl run for anything (although he never wins). Susan Gapka is a classic "NDP token candidate" also fated to lose badly. All of the heavyweight local NDP organizers (and probably the Labour Council) are lining up behind (yet to announce) Kristyn Wong-Tam. Google them yourself and then post your opinions?

How about the non-NDP candidates in Ward 27?  They include, among others, Ken Chan, Chris Tindal and Simon Wookey.  Ken Chan is a big-L Liberal who was Smitherman's aide and also a former police officer.  It's hard to say how strong he will be on the campaign trail, though but he probably will have Smitherman machine resources at his disposal and can appeal both north and south of Bloor.   Simon Wookey, also a Liberal (who ran against Giambrone last time) seems more of a north of Bloor candidate.  Chris Tindal did very well in the federal byelection for the Greens and almost certainly took a lot of the NDP vote.

And... Giambrone is done for. I'm not sure if he will drop out of the mayoral race, but I am pretty sure he just clinched defeat. Worse still for Giambrone, something like this does not look good for his plan B (running for the NDP provincially/federally). His campaign has already made a lot of mistakes and was up against a tough environment. Fighting off the stigma of having an affair with a 19 year old (and possibly having given her sensitive information) will make victory impossible. Giambrone should drop out immediately, and let another candidate take up the banner of the left, otherwise it is almost certain that Smitherman or Rossi will become mayor.

http://www.thestar.com/news/gta/torontomayoralrace/article/762532--adam-...

*Facepalm*

The number of levels on which this was dumb is simply staggering. Giambrone seemingly didn't know when to stop digging.

They might as well measure Smitherman for his ermine and robes right now.

That's quite the crash and burn, isn't it. Mostly I hate these stories -- most people's personal lives, and especially their private messages, couldn't stand up to close parsing on the front page of the Star.  We don't need to know this stuff unless a politician has actively been trying to prevent others from freedoms that we then find out he was secretly enjoying himself.

That said, people can't un-know what they now know, especially that Giambrone may have given Lucas confidential information about the TTC.

Waitaminite...a 19 year-old?  They made it sound on the news this morning like she was underage or something.  They didn't say "underage" but they kept really emphasizing "young".

If she was 19, then it's nobody's fucking business.  Are we really going to become like the US, where people give a shit about adultery and crap like that?  Who gave a damn when Mike Harris was carrying on with Sharon Dunn, besides Frank Magazine?  Was it widely reported by the mainstream media at the time?

Looks like the only thing that might be even remotely the public's business is that he told her about the fare increase before it was publicly announced.  Big deal.

I mean, he treated her badly, I agree.  And yes, it's sleazy to cheat - although it's not clear here who he was cheating on - which was the real relationship, the one with his "partner" or the one with this person?  Sounds like he was saying his "partner" is just around for window dressing.

But I guess the point is - does it affect his ability to do the job?  Clearly not.

Sure, it's juicy and interesting, but when it comes right down to it...who cares?  He had an affair.  Big whoop.  Welcome to the real world, where politicians (and lots of other people) cheat on their partners.

Wow, a new low for the Star!

"But I guess the point is - does it affect his ability to do the job?  Clearly not."

1. It seriously effects his viability as the primary candidate of the left in this mayoral election. Since Toronto has no formal party system, however, he can withdraw and let somebody else take over. This will avoid vote-splitting on the left.

2. The affair clearly did affect his ability to do his job because he gave Ms. Lucas information she was not privy to.

3. While affairs are personal matters, they sometimes tell us about the personal characteristics of a prospective leader. I don't think it is irrelevant when politicians act dishonestly, or when they treat people as objects (eg. describing one's partner as window-dressing). Participating in an affair (and seemingly persisting till just before a mayoral election) also reflects a high threshold for risk-taking, that may not be what one wants in a mayor. The affair doesn't necessarily impact Giambrone's ability to be mayor, but it could reasonably affect one's judgment of whether he is the man we thought him to be. Elections are not just about platform planks - a lot of governing involves responding to unexpected issues that could not have been debated beforehand (eg. Jean Chretien could not have said "vote for me because in 2003 I will say no to the Iraq war" in 2000). Personal characteristics and ideological signalling are some of the few tools we have to predict how such a leader would act.

4. The fact that there may or may not have been a double-standard in the treatment of Mike Harris and Adam Giambrone is trouble, but irrelevant. Actually I think the main difference is that in this case the aggrieved party (or one of them) went public in a very big way. When Julie Couillard went public about Bernier's briefs there was, similarly, a media feeding frenzy.

Oh, come on Michelle. The reality of politics has always been that politicians' private lives are public. That's what every politician know s they are getting into when they sign their nomination papers. Who cares? you ask. I've heard nothing but this story on all morming radio today. EVERYONE cares. They LOVE this stuff. How could the Star not print the story?

I feel bad for him in a way. Having your private life in the papers sucks. But you know that going in and you have to be waaayyyy more careful about what you do than the average person. Anyway, he's clearly done.

I wonder:  what if Giambrone didn't have an affair, but instead his partner went public with text messages criticizing her weight, praising other women, and referring to her as "the battle-axe" or "the ball and chain"?

Would that speak to his ability to do the job?  I don't think so.  Is it illegal?  I'm pretty sure it's not. 

But I would expect a lot of women to be a little less likely to vote for him.  Personally, Giambrone's affair isn't the biggest piece of news I'll hear all day, but I can understand if some people believe that his ethics outside of work are the best indicator of his ethics on the job.  If nothing else, this demonstrates a certain political cynicism on his part. 

If he's willing to perpetuate a hollow relationship because it has good political "optics" then I think anything he says can be taken with a grain of salt.  What wouldn't he do to get elected? 

Oh come on.  Everyone talks to their partners about stuff going on at work that they wouldn't tell other people.  So what?  A fare increase isn't exactly a national security issue, it was going to happen anyhow, and since she didn't tell anyone, obviously he was a good enough judge of character to know who he could talk to about work.  What's the worst that would have happened had the fare hike been leaked early?  The Julie Couillard and Bernier affair was different - he left briefs there that were issues of national security.  Not about transit fares.

And are we really going down the road of analyzing people's love lives for clues about their character on the job?  If you live long enough outside your parents' basement and have enough relationships, you're going to have a few not-so-proud moments where you screwed things up, or maybe REALLY screwed things up, or broke a rule or two or did something unconventional or whatever.

I mean, hell, for all we know, maybe the partnership really IS window-dressing and it's an agreement between the two of them.  Maybe there was something in it for both of them.  Who knows?  We haven't heard anything from either him or his partner about it so it's hard to know.  Or maybe it's just a variation the age-old married-guy line to his mistress: "My wife doesn't understand me!"  Who knows?  Why should we care beyond it just being interesting gossip - which, of course, we all care about! :D

They were saying on the news this morning that Giambrone's people are releasing e-mail correspondence from Lucas as well.  Should be interesting to see what happens with that.  It's pretty easy to release only the personal correspondence that is embarassing for a public figure in order to get back at them for spurning you.  Perhaps not so satisfying once he admits it, has nothing to lose, and starts releasing HER not-so-shining moments in e-mail correspondence. 

This could backfire on her - he may come out of this looking like a sympathetic figure withstanding an attack by a scorned lover, and it might actually humanize him.  People might like him better with a few foibles, isntead of as a squeaky-clean child star.  People can relate better to foibles than to perfection.

Then again, it could kill his political career for the time being.  I wonder whether there's an opponent's campaign helping this scandal along?

Oh, I know, Olly - it was a pretty dumb thing to do.  But hey - lots of us are dumb when it comes to affairs of the heart. :)

Yes, of course people want to know.  Heck, I'm as interested as the next person in what will happen next!  But while it's interesting gossip, I probably wouldn't change my vote over it, if I were planning to vote for him in the first place.  (I'm not sure who I'm voting for yet - but this won't influence my decision, unless something of substance develops in the story.)  As skdadl says, most people's personal correspondence probably wouldn't hold up to scrutiny on the front page of the Star.

Yeah, I agree. I wouldn't vote for him because I think the TTC is a mess, not because of this.

For a time, I was really shocked by the reaction of lefty Merkin friends online to the revelations about John Edwards. I tried holding the line for a while because I just couldn't see why it should matter to anyone but the people involved. I didn't think people had the right, eg, to condescend to Elizabeth Edwards by pitying her -- who knows how she felt, what she knew, what she'd agreed to? No one ever really will, and no one deserves to. Marriages are like that.

But then, as we say, the guy kept digging. I was wishing he would just tell the press to fork off from the start, and if he'd done that, I would still be arguing for him. But he did the sentimental confessional thing, except only half-honestly, and then he got caught in further lies and tried to cover those up, and it all just kept tumbling on. At some point you start to think, maybe this guy really doesn't have a centre, and that could be trouble. I think it's a great shame, but he managed things spectacularly badly, and that eventually influences my judgement.

As for Lucas, I think she's as poisonous as Couillard. This was a rotten thing for her to do; I don't see that she has any defence at all. If she was in any way personally wronged before, she scuttled any ounce of sympathy I might have had for her by going the celebrity-scandal route. Enjoy your fifteen minutes, crass person.

First of all, i agree with Michelle that the way this was reported made it sound like he was a pedophile engaged in a inappropriate relationship with someone underage - then it turns out she's 20 and he's 32 - not such an unusual age difference for a couple and 100% legal.

That being said, the most damaging thing about this is not that he was having the affair (so much for all those rumours about him being gay - obviously everyone was barking up the wrong tree!!), but the fact that he comes across in the story as immature and ruthlessly opportunistic what with saying that his wife/partner is just there for political reasons and for the campaign etc...

Even before this, I thought that his campaign was a one way ticket to oblivion - now I think that there it is OVER. Period. I don't see how he can continue to be a serious candidate for mayor. i think that if he doesn't quit the race now - his supporters will start to desert.  I'm just glad this ois happening in February and not October so that there's lots of time for the left to regroup.

I think Joe Pantalone is looking better and better with every passing day. He is the only one running for mayor who isn't an object of ridicule and i think that if Giambrone wakes up and smells the coffee - people may start to take a closer look at Pantalone.

Personally, I'm not a huge Giambrone fan so don't take this as partisanship but... what the hell? Smitherman essentially gave a billion dollars away to rich people for doing nothing. I have yet to see this criminal act tied to his name in any of his mayoral raw-raw pieces in the Star. Giambrone gets caught fucking and it is presumed that he is finished.

So to be mayor of Toronto you better be a man, white, good looking (broadly interpreted), monogamous (or precieved as such), have un-accented English, and agree with the idea that "the Transit Union is holding the city hostage"?

Queen Victoria wants her fucking era back Toronto!

Smitherman is not particularly goodlooking and while I can't comment on whether he's monogamous in the context of his current marriage - he did come out publicly a few years ago about his past addiction to "party drugs" and I'm sure he has quite a number of "exs" floating around with all kinds of lurid stories to tell. But he's still the front runner.

Absolutely. The affair is a personal embarrassment with public consequences, but the apparent contrivance of his politically expedient relationship makes him appear ridiculous and calculating. That's a lethal combination. He's done, and as you say, better now than later. If he doesn't withdraw and salvage some dignity, and learn from this experience how to be a better politician by being a more integrated human being, he's destined to be the Nunziata of the race.

That's true about the supposed relationship-of-convenience part - that will probably kill him more than the "affair".  Actually, that was the part that made me roll my eyes more this morning when I read the story than the "affair" did.  I never gave a shit whether he was married, single, gay, straight, whatever when I voted for him.  Not sure why he would think it was necessary to conjure up a wife for photo ops now, since he has been re-elected in Davenport as a councillor without it.

He'll recover from it, though.  If not in this race, then probably another one in a few years.  As for withdrawing now - I don't think it would wise to withdraw today.  He should see how the wind blows, try not to do anything too stupid (like get into a war of escalating e-mail releases) and see whether things calm down in a day or two.  You never know how a story like this might end up spinning, so there's no sense in making snap decisions.

The Star's headline referred to her as a "young woman", nothing misleading there.

Usually I'm inclined to say "so what?" and deem it a personal matter, but at the same time, this is about an elected official being incredibly dumb. I can't help but think that's somewhat relevant to the voting public, even if this stupidity is related to their personal life.

And there are more serious or relevant issues here too. There's the disclosing "top secret" information about the TTC - which is kind of silly but then again the TTC certainly took the fare increase very (excessively) seriously. Also on a serious note (no, really), I'd be careful if Giambrone ever offered me to take a seat in his office:

Eww.

Which also raises the question of what kind of atmosphere that creates in the workplace if anyone ever knew (well, they know now).

"The Star's headline referred to her as a "young woman", nothing misleading there."

I was referring more to the CBC radio news where my first reaction hearing the morning headlines was that there was someone underaged involved - probably because these days when you hear about an "inappropriate relationship" it often seems to be a euphemism for sex with a minor. Obviously that's not the case here - but I'm just saying what my first reaction was before i read all the facts.

We can spend a lot of time debating whether the Star reported the story correctly.  That's not the point.  For me there is one thing and one thing only.  Not the affair-- Who cares it is the stupidity of it.  When are these people going to learn Hell has not fury as a women scorned,  And man too frankly.

Exactly, Stockholm.  The 6:30 a.m. news on Metro Morning was basically a teaser, talking about how a sex scandal had broken about Giambrone, where he was involved in an "inappropriate relationship" with a "young woman".  But then they didn't give any details.  They kept emphasizing "young" and "inappropriate".  Then at 7:30, they reported that he'd had an affair with a woman who is "now 20" without clarifying what age she was when the affair happened.

Since they kept emphasizing age, it's obvious that people are going to assume that a teenager who wasn't 18 yet is involved.  That's what I thought from the news reports this morning until I logged onto babble and discovered that it was a 19 year-old - an adult!

The reporting on Metro Morning this morning was downright misleading - shameful, really.

Giambrone's behaviour was incredibly dumb and only reinforces the impression that he's immature. Added to it is a rather manipulative attitude towards people (in this case either Ms Lucas or Ms McQuarrie or both). And for god's sake if you are a politician having an affair don't do it over facebook, email and text messages. That's just boneheaded.

I'm curious:  what, specifically, does having a few martinis and then driving back to your hotel tell us about a person's moral fibre that cheating on your partner-of-convenience (and having sex in your office!) doesn't?  Note that unless your family are all tea-totallers, there's a pretty huge chance that back in the day, your father or granddad or one of your uncles may have done the same, so I trust we agree that it does not a monster make.  And for the sake of argument, assume nobody is actually harmed.  Just a dumb mistake.

What's the diff?  At what point is your private life really your private life, if you're a politician?

Well, one is breaking the law and putting people at risk of getting killed, and the other isn't.

The Giambrone precedent

Okay, that's a difference, but is it a significant difference? Does it really tell you something about an individual's ability to perform their job? Should every person who's been pulled over for a DUI lose their job, for example? How, specifically, does it relate to the job of "politician" in a way that lying and cheating do not?

Giambrone comes across as crass and frankly a bit creepy.  A lot can be forgiven by Canadians, but those are two things that are pretty hard to overcome.

I know I am probably in a minority, but he has never impressed me much.  Always set my spider-sense tingling.

I'm not sure that it should make a difference to his campaign, but it does. I think he's done.

I've gotta confess I've never been a huge fan, though if I lived in a juristiction where he was running I guess I'd vote for him over any other likely candidates.  He gives a good speech and all, but I always had the impression he was always branding himself and grooming himself for the next higher step.  Nothing wrong with ambition, or having a life plan I suppose, and there are more successful politicians who are getting away with worse, but I think he's pretty much killed his political chances for anything for the forseeable future.  His behaviour was both dumb and crass.  You've got to wonder if subconsciously he just didn't want all this and self sabatoged.

In fairness, Michelle, these are being reported as Giambrone's own words - so what were they supposed to say?

Anyway, unless I've missed something, Giambrone is stating that he never had sexual relations with that woman. As long as he sticks to that formula, he should come out of this like the last guy who said that.

The trouble is that the last guy who said that was already elected.

They kept repeating "young" again and again, without clarifying.  I doubt Giambrone did that.

As for not admitting to having sex with her...yeah, pretty dumb.  And yes, I can see where the naked ambition can be a turn-off.  I voted for him when I lived in his ward, because I don't really care whether he's nakedly ambitious or not - I figured that all that ambition would probably make him a pretty hard-working councillor, and I was right.  I don't have to become buddies with the guy to vote for him.

Oh yeah... oh well, back to the drawing board.

Now Giambrone is insisting that he's staying in the race despite these revaltions. What planet is this guy on? Can't he read the writing on the wall???

I guess politicians are not like the rest of us - look at John Edwards running for president despite having a closet full of skeletons.

If there is ANY scenario whereby all of this leads to a positive outcome for Giambrone - please tell me what it is. I keep wondering who is going to donate any money to him? Who is going to be willing to knock on doors or make phone calls for him? Who? Who? When it gets to a point where you become an object of ridicule and where people are embarrassed to say they support you - its time to step aside and let someone else fill the vacuum.

Long thread, I'm sure there isn't anything else to say about this, right? 

So this is what I can piece together.

NOW magazine writes a glowing article on Giambrone and erroneously claims he's gay.

Giambrone "laughs over" the story, light-heartedly corrects the record but then goes a step further and makes public the fact that he's in a relationship with a woman named Sarah. Until this point no one had known, or particularly cared, who if anyone Giambrone was seeing.

The day after that Giambrone stages romantic dinner with Sarah at a restaurant and arranges for a Toronto Sun photographer to take their picture for the next day's paper. In doing so, he misses his date with his other girlfriend and messages her to check out the Sun the next day.

At his campaign launch Giambrone stereotypically announces his candidacy with his "life partner" Sarah at his side.

Hurt and humiliated his other girlfriend eventually goes to the Star.

Radwanski is right, this is Giambrone's own fault for cynically trying to use his relationship with Sarah (real or not) for image purposes... or as he told Lucas in a *text message* on Dec 27, "You know I will be announcing I have a partner... It is someone named Sarah (McQuarrie), who I've been involved with in the past. It is important for the campaign."

Really? Why exactly was it "important for the campaign"? Either Giambrone felt so insecure about being called gay that he needed to put the spotlight on the fact that he has a girlfriend (or pretend McQuarrie was his girlfriend, whether he was lying when he told Lucas that her relationship with McQuarrie was pretend or lying when he says it's real, I don't know and don't particularly care) or he saw some sort of political advantage in contrasting his relationship with a woman against Smitherman's relationship with a man. Either way, fairly sorry stuff.

And of course had Giambrone not been driven either by insecurity or cynicism to create a public image of himself as a guy in a committed relationship with a female "life partner" then his second girlfriend wouldn't have found out about his first and Giambrone's sleaziness towards women would have remained a private matter.

While I still don't really see why this is a news story I can't muster any sympathy for Giambrone. He's brought this onto himself.