Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley Federal Byelection

Moderators please move this thread to the Atlantic Canada regional forum. It was posted here in error.

No problem!

I have been pondering the results of the prov election - usually no or very little correlation between the two vote totals - in Cumberand Colchester's prov ridings and what impact the federal situation HAD on the election and now vice versa, what happens now. And while conventional wisdom a la NS would typically indicate there is little to suggest any significance in the potential outcome, discussions I have had, cometary from people there (I am not fond of the term "ordinary" people with all due respect - I do believe we are all extraordinary in some way, however humble) and an examination of the stats and the news reports.

Bill Casey is regarded as a hero, even by people who ran against him. Possibly NOT Joel Bernard, a "nice" guy in his own way but not rocket scientist (again said with all due respect) and sent into the riding by the powers that be in the Harperite party - let's face , it is NOT the PC party we once knew! I think Bill Casey would agree with that.

WHERE do those Bill Casey votes go now? They are not in the definition of the word, "Tory" votes and the Tories, even Jamie Muir, were voting for Bill Casey! Just as important, where did they come from? He nearly doubled his vote and I know fr talking to Libs that many came from them as well as many who vote NDP provincially.

Now that there are NDP teams on the ground and it IS a byelection -which means organizers can be brought in from across the province - and NDP MLA's will give the party legitimacy - I do think while it does indeed remain a long shot but those lng odds just might lead to an NDP victory. (I know there was Ernie Fage but this is a riding with  history of independent thought - recall that but for Pat Nowlan running as an Ind in 1993, it would have been the third Tory seat in that wild and crazy election for the Kim Campbell govt) There are othe examples but that is the most recent. I can see Jamie Muir or Mark Parent running for it federally for the Tories and that might give them name recognition but there is still the matter of the Atlantic Accord and other issues that upset constituents here, people who may have been Tory all their life but would never vote Lib but might, just might vote NDP. If only Thomas Mulclair would campaign more and we leave out the fact that Jack Layton - even tho I like him - is from Toronto. (I am  dyed in the wool NDPer so it does not much matter - I would vote NDP BUT there are those who look at Toronto and think OMG!). We could mention his Hudson/ Mtll beginnings I suppose, lol

I always am reminded of a medical conf where a newly arrived physician in Hfx asked how he was managing and he noted "just fine, even if I am from away. I am from NY and not Toronto so that helps!". there are those who argue the US still fights the civil war and there are those in the Maritimes who still debate the merits of confederation so there you are...

I do hope Darrell et al keep Bill on in his new job!!!!

I'm afraid you've got your ridings mixed up.

Pat Nowlan represented Digby-Annapolis-Kings 1965-1968, Annapolis Valley 1968-1979, and Annapolis Valley-Hants 1979-1993, not Cumberland-Colchester.

Mark Parent has been mentioned as someone who has been thinking of taking on Scott Brison in Kings-Hants, and now that the good voters of Kings North have had their say, he might be thinking that way more than ever.

The one I'm watching is former Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley Tory M.L.A. Brooke Taylor, who shocked a lot of people when he announced that he wasn't going to be running again for the N.S. Conservatives.

Since he knew Bill Casey wasn't going to be running again in C.C.M.V., perhaps he's eyeing federal politics!

Stay tuned!

Cons already nominated Scott Armstrong [or he is the only one seeking the nomination]. Scott is well enough liked. But has little profile outside the PC organization. He won't be a strong candidate.

And the PC's would have lost AVH in the 1993 sweep even without Nowlan running as an independent. 

Mark Parent did muse about running against Scott Brison, but I don't know how serious he was and I really think he will move on [not politics]. Besides, its his wife [hospital administrator with her own local reputation and credibility] who has the ambition to run for the Cons, and would have last time had she not been squeezed out by the local Cons operatives.

There are rumblings in Cumberland North about candidacy (one that's talking about, and one I think needs to be recruited) for CCMV, it's in the hands of the NDP Riding Association(s), but rest assured it is near to top of mind in Amherst and area.

The NS NDP was able to win so many provincial seats, because of a massive PC to NDP shift. These people were first time NDP voters. Their essential political views have not changed, the only thing that changed in this last election was their voting preferences. Why did they come to prefer the NS NDP over the PCs? Therein lies the crux of any potential federal NDP success.

If you go on their previous record,  I personally think the Federal NDP doesn't stand a chance in hell of winning this byelection because they have had very little success in pulling votes away from the Federal Conservatives (the primary federal heirs to these provincial PC votes). Sure, the Federal NDP will get a modest bounce (maybe), but if they want to win, they have to find a message and image of their party and leader, that it can sell to rural, anglophone, Nova Scotian PCs. The "we don't like the way you treated Bill Casey" plus "hey potential candidates, provincial numbers suggest you might be able to win" approach will not cut it. A Federal Party able and willing to develop a message and image that could reach out to NS PCs? I have my doubts.

The NDP doesn't have to pull any votes away from the federal Conservatives in that seat. The Tories came in a distant fourth while the vaxst majority were so disgusted with Harper that they voted for Bill Casey as an Independent! Nova Scotia seems to be one province where the federal NDP has more and more support among rural voters. last October, the NDP almost won South Shore-St. Margaret and before the EMay spiler efect the NDP came quite close to winning Central Nova.

Stocks right in this. The provincial vote share of the federal NDPwas already the highest in Nova Scotia for the 2006 election, and not far behind the NSNDP's vote share. It just hasn't translated into seats. That 30% plus provincial vote share for the feds didn't happen without substantial inroads in rural and small town NS.

And while some of those voters in the provincial election were first time PC to NDP shifts, thats not as dramatic as it appears. More the culmination of a long term trend.

Add to that that in NS a great many PC voters that vote Conservative federally are very loosely attached. They followed their incumbent MPs from the PCs to the Cons. But they don't really like the Conservtaive party [even if there is no deep antipathy], and in this riding that old PC MP is gone.

The new candidate will have some 'glow' from Bill Casey. But thats pretty limited, only politicl junkies will have heard of him, and he'll be wearing stephen Harper 100%.

Though in general in NS, I find that the Federal NDP's problems have maybe more so been an inability to pull votes away from the Federal Liberals (cf. Dartmouth, Halifax West).

One thing that might help the NDP in North Nova is if Tracy Parsons (the ex-Progressive Canadian leader) runs again for the Liberals...

This should be a 2 way Cons/NDP race.

I'm not sure who a weak Liberal candidate would help more. But my guess would be that it will help the Cons somewhat more. [Habitual Liberal voters that simply will not vote NDP, voting Cons because the Liberal campaign/candidate is so weak.]

On the NDP First Cabinet thread, there's a post that leads to Parker Barss-Dunham's blog http://contrarian.ca/?cat=126 which details the Harper government's approval of paving projects in Nova Scotia.

Guess which riding has gotten the most approvals?

Looks like the Conservatives are keeping up the old tradition of trying to buy votes with asphalt.

Let's hope the recent provincial election results tranfer onto the federal scene here. 

Any word on potential NDP candidates in this by-election?

It could depend on when the by-election is called.

The federal NDP Convention is in Halifax August 14th-16th.  I am assuming that the riding association would like to have the candidate in place so they could use the Convention as a publicity boost for all the by-election candidates.

Perhaps they could schedule the C.C.M.V. nominating meeting for the day before, and have Jack Layton there.

You can be sure that Darrell Dexter will try to be at that meeting if possible!

Why would it not be possible and why would he not be there?

It will be interesting to see how all three planned by-elections (CCMV, New Westminster, and  Montmagny - L'Islet - Kamouraska - Rivière-du-Loup)

have on each parties plans for a fall election. The general school of thought is that the Liberals are gunning for the fall, but would Iggy want to pull the trigger

after 3 defeats in 3 different provinces? None of the 3 seats have great prospects for the Liberals.

Ignatieff could be motivated to not go into a fall election because of by-election results the same way Harper called the last election right

before the three by-elections which looked like (and the general election results in those ridings confirms this, to a degree) they were having

results that didn't fit the Tory narrative (Guelph staying Liberal even with a relatively high-profile Conservative candidate, the Libs fairly easily holding

Westmount with a strong NDP second, and the Liberals being able to hold onto a strong second in St. Lambert) results that if they had happened could have potentially

taken quite a lot of wind out of Harper's sails, particularly in Quebec

I've yet to see anyone give a case WHY they think by-elections have a very material effect on the perception of how parties are doing. Lots of fodder for the punditry. But really, where is the case that this has a bearing on general election timing?

Layton is nowhere near as popular as Dexter in CCMV. People should also check out the flyers that the NS NDP ran with in CCMV. They make several direct pitches to "small c" conservatives. What KenS says about the local voters loyalty to the new Conservative Party is undoubtably true, but I think they would still prefer one of their own (e.g. someone more rural and more conservative) than an NDPer that waxes more to the urban-tinted left. We'll have to see who the riding nominates and whether the federal party gives them an actual message they can run and win on. Same old, same old won't cut it.

Also, KenS, you know the NDP 2008 NS numbers are biased upwards by Peter Stoffer's massive win so saying the NDP came "first" is misleading. What would be more accurate would be to say that the NDP had some support across the province but very few pick-up opportunities.

In any province where the NDP does well there is going to be one MP with a large majority "skewing" the average.

Take out the top NDP vote gainer in each, and I'll bet you the federal NDP vote share in NS is still the highest.

It's not just "some" support across the province, it is high everyone everywhere in the province... unlike anywhwere else.

Of course Dexter is more popular than Layton, by a long shot. What else would you expect?

Attraction to the federal party is no doubt weaker, but the NDP brand now means a lot in NS. [And its hard to say how much the weaker attraction to the federal party has to do with the perception they are still less likely to win a given seat. When ANY federal race in NS is known before or during an election to be a close one between the NDP and another party, you will see on that basis alone that the NDP vote wil bump up. That has been true both federaly and provincialy.]

As I said in my post, I don't think it was a coincidence that Harper called a snap election literally a day before by-elections which were expected to deliever a poor result for the Tories. The Liberals having a poor result in these by-elections I think might be a motivator for Iggy to avoid voting down the Tories, while better than expected Liberal results (such as an upset win in New Westminster, which of the 3 seats is probably their best shot) could motivate the Liberals into thinking they have momentum and put more pressure on Iggy to introduce a no confidence vote.

I think the Liberals do put a lot of stock in what the pundits say, and for that reason spend quite a bit of time trying to influence it.

The March 2008 by-elections were a really good example of seats the NDP was never going to win (maybe the Sask one could have been a possibility if we hadn't just lost goernment), but where we were pilloried for not performing well.

No doubt the Libs will invest a lot of effort in pre-spinning the by-elections too, but there will be no getting away from the fact that a bad performance will be read by pundits as hurting Iggy's negotiating position.

There is another more direct motivator why Harper did it last year, and has even more reason to do the same thing this time.

And it is important in itself that Harper did not say 'aw shucks, we're not going to win these, so lets call the general now'.... he set it up from the beginning that if they called a general, it would preempt the by-elections.

He was running out of time to call one of them, and would have a better chance for their shot at Guelph, if it was a general rather than a by-election.

It still remains to be seen whether the Liberals will be any more motivated to pull the plug. And this would be a very weak or uncertain motivator against. If Harper doesn't want an election he will have a more certain ace: a deal with the Bloc. He didn't even need that this time- or didn't want it because they aere willing to have an election.

This time around there are 3 seats where they are either favourites, or have a very good shot at winning. And the odds of them winning all are increased if it is a general rather than a by-election. So setting it up the same way as last time would be to reap that advantage... which is worth reaping, even if Harper has no plans to let an election happen.

I haven't worked out the exact dates. But whatever the date is when the Sept 28 possibility of a confidence vote would cause an election... shortly after that possible general election date is when we are likely to once again see these by-elections called for.

I agree with all of this. But it can all be true, and yet achieving these spin gains have very little or nothing at all to do with influencing Harper's choice of juggling considerations the timings of by-elections and general elections.

Spin gains are not trivial. But they are too epemeral to have much weight against considerations of strategic advantage in the race for 3 seats within your grasp, none of which are done deals.

The leader of the Christian Heritage Party has just announced he'll be a candidate in the C.C.M.V. by-election, whenever it's called, while Elizabeth May has abandoned Nova Scotia for a B.C. riding.

Things are looking better for an NDP victory there every day.

Stay tuned!

Hi all, first post.  Some updates and thoughts:

The CCMV Liberals have a contested nomination on their hands between Tracy Parsons (who ran last time) and Jim Burrows, a dairy farmer who has headed up the NS Federation of Agriculture and the Colchester Coop.  They meet on September 14th.

CCMV NDP are about to interview a slate of possible nominees.  I'll leave it up to the riding association to announce them.  A nomination meeting will soon follow.

It is important not to underestimate the PC candidate Scott Armstrong.  Sure, he is clearly a party insider with glaring personal ambitions, but he also has a community profile in both Tatamagouche and Truro as a school principal and sports organizer...and he has nice hair.

It's both an up-hill battle and a hopeful time for the New Democrats. 

How did the NDP do in the provincial ridings that make up CCMV? 

Going on memory without looking at the numbers:

Swept Truro-Bible Hill [long time PC riding, NDP strength for years, but always somewhat distant before]

Won Cumberland North [effect of turfed PC candidate running as Independent]

Did well in Cumberland South and Colchester North against very solid incumbents.

Won Colchester-MV solidly [southern end of Colchester County] , another always solidly PC riding where incumbent retired [and NDP had lock on second place for a few elections].

And generally: NDP now doing VERY well everywhere in the Mainland [outside Metro].

Jim Burrows just won the nomination for the Liberals. Harper is not well liked here and has now started the process of attracting the NDP to form a coalition which is the very thing he accused the Liberals of! Scott Armstrong is not very well known outside Tory circles nor is Jim Burrows. The NDP has never been very strong federally. My bet.....the Liberals will come up the middle when the by election is held

You just contradicted yourself. Jim Burrows is not known, but the Liberals will come up the middle?

And point of information: the Liberals have been behind the NDP in the riding in federal elections, and that was when the NDP was still at best provincially even with the Liberals and well behind the PCs in Cumberland and Colchester, before the big shift there to the NSNDP while the the NS Liberals dropped off the radar there, and before the NDP federal polling numbers for NS began to rise further.

welcome libercons - how's iggy pop doin?

Sorry Ken but you are incorrect. The NDP has only come in second once which was the last election when the Liberal vote flowed to Bill Casey. As a matter of fact, the NDP have not only come in a distant third here in every other election but have twice come in fourth behind the Reform Party. It is just my opinion but I see an anti Harper vote heading to the Liberals this time

Calling it 'your opinion' is both a truism and a deflection.

NDP votes also went to Bill Casy because of his stand. And the NDP coming in second was the culmination of a long term trend... where the Liberal vote has been gradually eroding in the Mainland in general, even more so in this riding.

Here is a map showing the results of the 2006 Federal Election in CCMV by polling division.  The 2008 results aren't really that meaningful.

"They aren't meaningful?"

Certainly they are effected by Bill Casey's popularity and independent candidacy. But the 2008 CCMV results are consistent with other NS races... which as I said reflect the gradual rise of the NDP and erosion of the Liberals where neither of them win.

The Liberals used to be second federally everywhere in NS they did not win [even after the 1997 NDP break-in]. Them days are over. 

yes, there is an NDP NS govt in the house - what part of that don't liberals get?

For the last three years, Jack Layton has been screaming from the rooftops that he will vote against the conservatives and it is up to the Liberals to prop up the government. Now we see Jack Layton with his tail between his legs supporting Stephen Harper? Remember the name Paul Martin received of Mr Dithers? The voters of CCMV have been discussing the lack of leadership within the NDP and this will show on election day!

Yes there is an NDP government in NS......what does that have to do with CCMV?

That there is a NDP government in NS, that comfortably won first place in CCMV in the provincial vote, while the Liberals were a very distant 3rd... all of which being solidified since then with increases since then in provincial and federal poll numbers for the NDP. and all of which is consistent with the trend of vote share changes over the last several federal elections.

And the relevance of the offerings of a Liberal troll desperately looking for a stick to wave around?

The only CCMV 'voters' who would be slagging Jack Layton are the remaining Liberals in what is left of their local organization.

[And by the way, the Liberal vote is so low in CCMV that even in Cumberland North with the already diminished PC vote split between 2 candidates, the Liberals were unable to beat either, and came in 4th.]

And the recent poll, shows the NDP leading in atlantic Canada - I guess long term unemployment extended benefits means something to folk in Canada.

According to the Pundits website, there are two people running for the NDP nomination in CCMV: Karen Olsson and Mark Austen. Anyone know anything about these people?

I like the sounds of Karen Olsson - that spelling means she must have a Swedish connection!

Karen Olsson was the 2008 NDP candidate, who made history by coming in second in that riding.

I've not heard of the other one, Mark Austen, so I'll have to start checking.

Has anyone noticed that Nova Scotia NDP Premier Darrell Dexter called two provincial by-elections within days of the seats being vacated, as opposed to Steven Harper, who leaves voters go for months without a representative before they get the chance to choose a new M.P.?

And he would have called them even sooner- just waited to see if a federal election was likely.

what's date of these provincial byelections? I knew that Inverness was vacant, what's the other one?

The other one is Antigonish, where lawyer Mo Smith came within a couple hundred votes of winning the seat back in June and is running again and is heavily, heavily favoured to win it now...(they will be October 20th and given we're polling around 60%+ right now both are feasible though Inverness is historically one of our worst seats in the province and would be a long shot, even now...)

That's good news. With Antigonish, the NDP will have painted every part of the federal riding of Central Nova bright orange! Why did the Tory member from there resign?

BTW: Is there anything demograhic or systemic that makes Inverness a weak seat for the NDP (ie: is it full of very rich people or is it some mini-Bible Belt?) - or is it simply a weak seat for the NDP because we have never made much of an effort to win it and maybe all it takes is a tap of the chisel and the Tory edifice there will come crashing down.

The Liberals are positioned for that- being part of their Cape Breton turf where it still takes a lot to dislodge them. Rodney MacDonald was the exception to that- poular local candidate riding the John Hamm wave in 1999.

I'm wondering if Harper isn't thinking of calling the C.C.M.V. by-election soon, along with New Westminster-Coquitlam, to overlap with the two provincial by-elections, so the NDP will be foreced to split resources between the two different campaigns.

The New West.-Coquitlam by-election must be called by the 13th of October, so perhaps the 3 that have October or November mandatory announcement dates (including CCMV-Oct.31) will be called on that day.

I'm Mark Austin.  I will be acclaimed at the NDP nomination meeting in Truro on the 30th of September.  My friend Karen Olsson (yes, a Swedish name) withdrew and has committed to work with me.

I've enjoyed reading this thread and will try to keep doing so.  Thanks. 

Someone asked about me earlier (probably something like, who the h...is Mark Austin??):  you can read a profile at www.Austin4CCMV.ning.com if you like.  The bio. is in the forum section.  It is one of those write-ups that pretends to be written by someone else; but of course is by me. 

I read a good one last week where third-person Mike Duffy calls himself "the most authoritative broadcaster commenting on the political life of Canada."

Anyway...I hope some of you are right, and some are wrong.

Congrats Mark!

I tried doing what you said to get your bio: clicked on the forum tab, but got nothing.

ETA: actually, the Bio is under the Blogs tab.

I'm thrilled that we have such a good candidate running in CCMV. One more reason why I don't want an election this fall is that three of the four federal byelections we are likely to have promise to be interesting for the NDP. We will be HEAVILY favoured to hold New Westminster-Coquitlam - and that will be good for morale. In CCMV anything will be possible given the momentum from the provincial election and the extent to which the NDP can concentrate resources. In Hochelaga, the NDP has a good local candidate and the BQ is drawing fak for parachuting in some rightwing Union Nationale style hack.

CCMV is one of the top protestant ridings in the whole country (h/t punditsguide), so I'd say the Liberals have zero chance if traditional voting patterns hold. It is also quite low income and is a tough place to be for youth employment. Did the Conservatives cut the Youth Employment Strategy and internships out of existence yet? I believe they did eliminate many jobs from this program in the Maritimes one year.

The Liberals, NDP, and Conservatives are all running candidates in Truro, so the vote there will likely be a three-way tough fight. Advantageously for the NDP, they represent a good portion of that area provincially, so they have more profile, hope, and can vote target efficiently than usual. The key to winning will be to campaign efficiently in Truro, because that will likely split three ways and it will be the rest of the riding that puts one or the other party in first place. The Green candidate in Amherst will likely get votes there and nowhere else.

The Tories aren't announcing rink funding here. Why?

Harper doesn't like Armstrong. Because of that Scott won't get a seat at the table. If they were going to announce the funding they'd show up here and try to buy some votes. He's not going to get the funding. Harper's not done punishing CCMV yet.

The only way something good is going to happen for this riding is to replace Harper.

I wish you were right Anderson. Here's what I just wrote in another thread about how the campaign is at the very least well coordinated with Ottawa, if not for all intents and purposes run from there. They want CCMV back.

I live next to CCMV and today drove through Truro and the southern end of Colchester.

Conservatives were obviously more than ready. Number of signs went up on the weekend [normally not that fast in NS.

Even more of a surprise, a brochure was in the mailboxes today. Which means it had to have been dropped off on Thursday, and at least several days lead time to be ready to do that. Do you suppose someone tipped them off?

More pernicious, I'm pretty sure that brochure does not count for the spending limit. There's no restriction on spending outside the writ, or what kind of spending. And just a coincidence of course that it arrives at homes after the writ drops.

It will be interesting to see what Elections Canada has to say about that. In any event -- they've got some signs in the usual spots -- but nothing new. A few signs with the party faithful and a political mailing that is hitting a tired riding in it's third election in 12 months is barely going to make a difference. It didn't make a difference for Hughie MacIsaac in the provincial election and he had his signs up and office open the day before the election call.

In another thread, I guessed that Harper would time the C.C.M.V. by-election to come as soon as possible after the two provincial by-elections in Nova Scotia, hoping that the NDP would devote the majority of it's resources to winning those rather than the federal seat.

Or would an NDP pick-up of a former long-time Conservative provincial seat (Antigonish?) on October 20th give the federal NDP even more momentum going into the C.C.M.V. vote three weeks later?

Conservative resources will also be split between trying to hold on to those two provincial seats and trying to win CCMV - so its a wash.

With Dexter's coat-tails, it looks like this byelection could be an opportunity for an NDP breakthrough.  It is historically a PC riding and conservatism in the Maritimes has tended to be of a "Red Tory" variety.  Casey was more in the PC mold and enjoyed much personal popularity and was increasingly isolated in the party.  The Reform/Alliance takeover of the party will not sit well with the electorate there.

It's interesting that the Tories are blathering on here about being ready for the election first. I wouldn't be so quick to boast:

1. Scott Armstrong was able to get lawn signs ordered but he wasn't able to get funding for the arena announced by HIS OWN PARTY.

2. Scott Armstrong was able to mail a brochure before the election and avoid pesky election rules but he wasn't able to get playground equipment installed at his school even though they've had the problem for over a year. (amazingly - his flyer slogan is "Let's get things done.")

Nova Scotians, please keep posting what is happening in this byelection. I am sure there are other lurkers, like me, who are keenly interested in what is happening on the ground.

Also, Anderson, that was great comment. The NDP candidate should use that in his presser and in debates.

Mark wouldn't be doing that. Armstrong will be wearing any shortcomings without that.

Scott Armstrong would wear his many shortcomings but the Tory Truro Daily News is doing its very best to protect him.

When you are the principal of a big new school, people heare about you regardless.

Armstrong has had many months to put his face in at the local rag. Until now, Mark Austen would just be known to them as a guy they hear nice things about. I expect Mark will do fine in the media.

[Besides, local rags don't generally report on those kinds of shortcomings.]

Wouldn't get much play in Musquodoboit, more of a Chronicle-Herald territory.  Go Mark Go.

MRHS '82

I noticed that V. Jara reposted his/her posting from Election prediction project, so I thought i'd do the same:

I'm giving this seat to the NDP because of a few things:

Soft NDP support here, with paper candidates and no visible campaign, is around 12-15%, this is without an organized canvass, sign campaign, and commnications. In the provincial riding of Cumberland North, a bit of organization took the NDP support from 14-40%. People here want to vote NDP, but the party hasn't given them a reason to. Now they will.

The Liberal camp is in disarray after the provincial vote, quite a few organizers/supporters came over to the NDP camp in all 5 of the provinical ridings. The Liberals also suffer, once again, from a leadership deficit. Oh yes, and the Liberal candidate has also already proved that he's a loose cannon: publically sabre-rattling about how he wanted a general election the day after he was nominated.

Anti-Harper sentiment is high in NS, the Conservatives don't stand a chance in a byelection. Perhaps in a General Election, with the momentum of the central campaign, they might eke out a win. But Armstrong on his own in a byelection will do poorly. Tories around here also suffer from the impression that canvassing and talking to voters isn't necessary for a win. I don't expect that to change.

The main populations centres: Amherst and Truro, are solidly NDP.

Due to an influx of experienced outside organizers during the provincial campaign, the NDP kept good records of their support in this riding for the first time. That means that they can merely pick up the phone and call Johnny Q and say "Hey Johnny, you supported/donated/volunteered/took a sign for our provinical candidate, would you like to do the same for our federal candidate?" 9 times out of 10, Johnny's going to say yes, and may even volunteer to go put up Suzie's sign and drive Jane to the campaign office so she can drop off a cheque. This type of 'out of the gate' organization will create the momentum for a win.

Winning the three provincial ridings and putting up a good fight in the other two was part of a long game for the NDP.
The central party will likely committ resources (cash, outside organizers etc.) to this campaign, and just having a candidate nominated before the starter pistol will go a long way.

There is also the minor, but possibly instrumental fact, that the Greens have taken a solid credibility hit out here. With May's sudden jump out west, and the provinical Greens bumbling in the provincial campaign (admitting to the public that candidates in every riding is all about the money) as well as not filing their Elections NS paperwork on time, people will be questioning whether their progressive vote belongs with the Greens.

The old superstition:"this is Tory country" has been disproved, and will be again in about 4 weeks when this is all over.

To sum up:
NDP win with plurality of 35-43%
Conservatives Second
Liberals Third

thanks Moriatry for an insider's view - and for posting. I read daily and look for that insider view. Keep it up and come back when you can.

Election prediction project?? Anyways, great post moriarty. I hope you are right. It would shake things up a bit if the NDP won there. A win in three byelections would be huge for the NDP, given the current natl polls, and the Liberal party's leadership weakness.

Problem with your prediction: absolutely no campaign from the NDP candidate. No signs, no visible advertising, no real engagement with the media, no presence at any of the important public functions I've been around so far. That and barely anyone showed when Jack Layton stopped by to open the NDP office.

The Liberal office opening had at least 3 times as many people in the doors and they didn't even have to bust out the big names to do it.

The provincial election was primarily about changing the leader and that Darrell Dexter had the most experience. Sweeps do funny things in funny ridings. Here it wasn't an NDP vote as much as it was a who's going to replace the Tories vote. I mean, come on, we elected Lenore Zann. It certainly wasn't about the candidate.

What is this supposed to mean?

So we know your opinion about Lenore Zann as candidate.

And I'd like to see you support the contention that the provincial election was about "who was going to replace the Tories" when the Liberals did not do well... really only edged out the Tories. You sure can't argue that people rallied around the NDP because to get the bums out. The bums were DOA, and people were voting for who they wanted.

A lot of the eventual outcome was probably bandwagon. But guess what: bandwagons count.

I don't really know why, but in Nova Scotia NDP campaigns always start slow even when they are soon beating everyone up. [Though I will note that your even handedness has been not that great, so I'm not sure about your report on the Liberal opening.]

And for those from ON, BC, QC and SK [at least], Nova Scotia campaigning is slower to get going period- not just the NDP- than what most of you are accustomed to.

The NS Liberals have an inverse relationship to the one that I just used above to characterise the NSNDP: more members and typically more people at nomination meetings even when they are dead in the water. For some reason they seem always to be able to count on a decent number of warm bodies for events... but the campaign offices are typically sleepy.

And there is no question that in the last couple months the Liberals were doing everything they could to get ready- albeit it isn't very much. While the NDP was inexplicably doing nothing visible even to local political junkies.

"That and barely anyone showed when Jack Layton stopped by to open the NDP office."

That's funny, according to the Truro Daily News, there were over 100 people there.

Considering the comment about Lenore Zann, I have to assume that "Anderson" is one of the local Liberals in Truro who tried and failed to smear her for having appeared naked in an acting performance - as well know, that Liberal scheme backfired totally and only helped her win. With any luck the local Liberal hacks in Truro will start a rumour that the NDP candidate once went to a nudist beach and maybe it can cause another wave of sympathy that will lead him to victory!

Liberal's aren't allowed to read and join the conversation at rabble? I'm not going to deny that I am one. But I'm not on the campaign. I just watch these things from the side.

FYI - None of the local Liberals attacked Lenore on her acting career. Not once. One idiot in Halifax decided to forget that Liberals support the arts - nudity included. Her success as an actor should be celebrated as well as her work for the Truro performing arts community. Her qualification to be an MLA and ability to be effective for Truro-Bible Hill is the question that we have asked and now she has four years to answer. Knowing Lenore, I doubt she's going to prove me wrong.

As far as Liberals getting people in the door - I haven't seen this kind of support in years. They haven't filled rooms and meetings like they have for Jim Burrows since the 90s. Last year's nomination meeting was 40-50 people. This one 225. The office opening - an overwhelming success.

But please...go ahead and write the Liberals off in this one. Because you live somewhere else and obviously know what's going on here.

Liberals are free to post here just like anyone else. and New Democrats are free to rebut. I don't live in the area, but i read the online papers and there are several people like KenS and Moriarty who DO live in the riding or very close to it and I think what they have to say is as valid as anything.

A belated welcome to you Anderson. I think its fair to say that Liberals who post here will get more flak, but I don't think it was even implied you don't belong.

And you are right that it wasn't a local Liberal that tried the [backfired] smear of Zann. Though it was a very plugged in guy, and you've got plenty of campaigners for whom that's stock in trade.

Anderson, it's great that there were lots of libs for the office opening but it was backhanded to on the one hand, positively state, 

"That and barely anyone showed when Jack Layton stopped by to open the NDP office", and than on the other (when Stock said that was essentially false and called you on it, you reply with,

"Liberal's aren't allowed to read and join the conversation at rabble?" Poor me doesn't work here, and nor does misrepresentation and exaggeration it gets challenged.

Thus perhaps there was a mistake on the numbers of Libs in attendance at the lib office opening?

100 people for Jack Layton is poor turnout and having observed the gathering it was a pretty generous hundred offered by the TDN. The office opening for Jim far exceeded it. No exaggeration at all. The point that I was trying to make was that moriaty's pronouncement of an NDP victory doesn't seem to be falling in line with what's actually happening on the ground.

We're in the middle of week 2 and I've still haven't seen many NDP signs - even at traditional NDP locations. Scott Armstrong is floundering too. Burrows seems to have a bit of early momentum.

What I think is going to happen here is that the Tories are going to come in #2 because of the traditional vote - but the race is going to be decided by who people think can win and right now that vote looks to be shifting red.

And I've got nothing against Mark. He's a quality guy, I just don't think his campaign is going anywhere -- be it because of organization, funding, Jack Layton or whatever -- and that's going to hurt him substantially at the polls.

you forgot to add...A Message from the Liberal Party of Canada

Hs there been any polling released for this byelection?

I wouldn't think there will be any done.

Anderson, no one here has posted anything definitive for supporting who is "most in the run". But you have really slight evidence to support your contention that the Liberals are really in, and that the assumed contention of the NDP is not what people think.

At any rate- we'll see.

But until then: I'm not going to predict that Mark Austen and the NDP will win. But I'm pretty confident that the Liberals will come in 3rd, and probably not a close 3rd.

Your own argument that essentially the Cons are guaranteed 2nd, and that its between the NDP and Liberals who will win, is a strange one that doesn't correspond with voting behaviour- even in by-elections.

Voters in such huge blocks as would be required here do not sit around waiting to see 'who looks like they are going to win'. In the final week or 2, that is a tipping factor for some undecideds. [And by then- all the campaigns will be in full swing.]

And as any campaigner knows- organization will only carry you so far past what the 'fundamentals' over which you have no control will deliver for you. IE, if you are lucky enough to catch a big surprise wave [like NDP federally in 1997, 2009 provincial was no surprise], and if you've got a good campaign, you can win- which is exactly what happened for Peter Stoffer. Doesn't matter how good a campaign they had though, without that wave, Stoffer would never have won.

There is no evidence of any wave out there coming to lift Liberal boats. In fact, there is plenty of evidence in the fundamentals that this boat is becalmed or drifting backwards. People who are invloved in campaigns are not expected to let that kind of thing deterr them, but you can't expect any one else outside the bubble to be impressed by your confidence.

There's also no evidence that Scott Armstrong is "floundering". And while I wish people generally were as mad at the Conservatives as you think- I don't see evidence of that either. [And its characteristically the kind of thing Liberals passionately attach themselves to, as the self-presumed natural inheritors of all that is against Harper.]

In fact- while at least Scott Armstrong does not appear to have a personal base or glow around him, there's a lot to worry about in how the Conservatives and the government are polling and looking right now. And if the Liberal Party of Canada doesn't pull up its socks VERY soon- sooner than Iggnatieff and his brain trust seem even remotely capable of- then I'm afraid we're not going to have much of that potential pull of swing voters away from the Conservatives in this race.

The demographics are not there for the Liberals to win this even in good times. Any speculation that they will win given the current circumstances is time wasted.

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Actually there has been a poll done in CCMV by the Hill Times. Scott Armstrong 34%, Jim Burrows 32% and Mark Austin trailing in 3rd place at 26%, Green Party at 6%.......so it looks like Jim Burrows just may take this thing judging by the people I have been talking to. There is definitely a movement in his favour! Time will tell

How about a link for that?

I wonder who that might be?

I've never heard of the Hill Times commissioning riding polls...and no one would do one this early in the race. Colour me skeptical - but if it were true it would mean a tight three-way race.

I know you're into it Stockholm and I get it - I'm as guilty of party and candidate loyalty as anyone is - but if you look at what's happening in the NDP office now and what happened in the provincial campaign you see two completely different environments and the reason he'll probably drop off in the next couple weeks. (and again this isn't anti-Mark or even anti-NDP - if I truly thought the NDP was the best vote to knock off the Tories in this riding I'd be right with you - but I just don't see it).

Mark's office is quiet. There's a receptionist there and that's usually about it. Zann's (whatever I may think of her ability as an MLA) was organized, energetic, and went well into the night 7 days a week with folks from out of province pounding away at the phones and signs and rallys.

Right now the CHP candidate has more visibility in this election than Mark (thank God for the 1500 votes or so that he'll take from Scott Armstrong) and that's telling about the amount of financial support he's probably got to this point.

Now I know these are small things but in this riding its usually these little things that count -- if Mark's campaign doesn't pick up he's not going to make up the 8 points he's sitting behind. This riding really does vote perception and if they're going to vote against Harper I'm quite sure that they're going to vote Burrows.

A couple other quick points:

- Scott's probably going to pick up the teacher's union vote (the tradition NDP voters in this riding) because they'd like a new principal at TES. :)

- Jim Burrows is a lock with the rural vote. Most of the dairy farmers have already voted for this guy to be the Chair at Scotsburn Dairy. He's going to pull in a lot of those votes the Tories usually bank on because of the relationship he's already got with the non-town voters. He's very well known. Nothing to do with party colours - my farmer friends down at the sale barn tell me he's done a great job and that's why they're going with him.

ummm....OK, so a few teachers at the elementary school where Armstrong is principal want a new principal - suddenly that gets extrapolated into the entire "teachers union vote" across a massive riding that probably contains dozens of elementary and high schools is going to vote Conservative?

This sort of comment does not give you much credibility.

A.] I know the point about Mark's HQ is grossly exaggerated. Given that the campaign- like many of the NDPs got a slow start [the competition in NS means you can get away with that], I'd accept you saying its slower than Burrows HQ which hit the grounfd running.

B.] Its still early given that byelections dont have but a fraction of the motivation to anyone- supporters included- as do general elections, let alone one like the last for the NSNDP. And Zann's campaign was not humming at the early stages either.

What you hear has a great deal to do with who you are- including the selectivity of what people will say to you because they know who you are. A stand-in for polls neither of us are. [Note that I never make any claims based on what people tell me.] And I know that Burrows does not have a lock on the rural vote. The number of dairy farmers is a drop in the bucket, and they are seen as priviliged by far more people than they amount to. Jim is highy respected by people who know him- including myself. But his reach is not that great, and Mark is no slouch on that account- farmer in two parts of the riding, economic development worker that is seen by far more people than someone like Jim, etc.

Ahhh, that poll you call a "Hill Times" poll is by Ekos for CBC.  The numbers you quote are for the entire Atlantic Canada region, not CCMV.  Given that Nova Scotia has the heaviest population in Atlantic Canada, I would say the the NDP's 26% translates into great news for Mark Austin's team.

NB, PEI and NL are solidly Tory, Liberal, Liberal respectively.  Their poulation totals about 1.2 million.  The population of NS is about 1 millon.  Which means that the 26% is great news in NS, for where else would that 26% be coming from:  NL?  In a perfect world.  NB?  never in a million years.  PEI?  Not likely.

This means that NDP strength is concentrated in NS.  Whether it translates from the HRM to the coffee shops and Big Stops of Cumberland and Colchester counties is a question that remains to be answered.

I see your point Moriarty, but there actually are some big concentrations of NDP support outside of Nova Scotia such as in St. John's NF where Jack harris won 75% of the vote last year and in Yvon Godin's riding.

Stock - did you not notice the smiley face after the teacher's union barb. It wasn't a serious point.

Regarding the Ekos poll - not representative of CCMV as it's got a lot of metro flavour to it as an Atlantic Canada poll.

Regarding the campaign office - slow offices and slow signs mean that 1. There isn't much excitement in the campaign. 2. There's not much money coming in. Neither bodes well for Mark. He gets very little press coverage. He's not the talk of the coffee shops and sale barns. He's going to get core NDP voters and I think that's about it. I'm going to say between 3 and 4 thousand votes.

And given the Liberal's polling, by the same token then, they would only be getting their core vote of about 3,000 and finishing 4th or so.

Something tell me that "Count Ignatieff" will not go over very well among the good people of CCMV.

Plenty of money, and volunteers, in Marks campaigns. But you can't do anything with either until you are organized. And no question his campaign is last to do that.

Losing CCMV would actually be quite a humiliation for the Tories, as it one of their stronger Nova Scotia ridings historically (also one of the weaker ones for the NDP in terms of federal support).

Anderson, I'm going to say to you what I said to all the Liberals who suddenly showed up on Babble before the provincial election, claiming they were going to win ...

... spin away buddy, be our guest ...

... but have the guts to come back on E+1 and take your lumps.  'Cause we've seen this movie before.  Chance are we'll never hear from you again.

This guy reminds me of the poster who kept insisting that Jim Smith was going to obliterate T. Zinck in Dartmouth North

Anderson re:Zann "with folks from out of province pounding away at the phones and signs and rallys."

rotflmao! Now I know you are completely full of shit. As for the Hill Times poll, puhlease! Quit spinning and get out there and win your candidate some votes.

But the floor of federal NDP support in the Mainland is pretty high [look at the 2006 vote shares, Casey was the independent hero running in 2008]. In practice: so that support is in range to win whenever there is no incumbent.

Bill Casey had this seat for so long that you could not take his levels of support as necessarily Conservative support.

Probably more characteristic is that CCMV and Central Nova have the historically lowest levels of Liberal support in Nova Scotia.

And that is part of the reason Alexis MacDonald did do well in Central Nova, and why the same thing will now manifest for the NDP in CCMV, whether or not it will be enough to win.

The Liberals have had some pretty weak candidates throughout the years while Bill Casey remained very popular gaining many soft Liberal votes. This time, there is a not very popular Conservative and a completely unknown NDP candidate while the liberal candidate is starting to standout! Liberals flocked to Bill Casey in the last election in droves, now they are going back to Jim Burrows and bringing their soft Conservative friends with them.

On a side note (please, this is meant respectfully) is this an NDP only blog? It seems when different viewpoints are posted, the words like "full of shit" come into play from some very angry people.

Well when you attempt to misrepresent polling data you can expect to be lambasted.  In my experience, good rhetoric and solid arguments are always welcome on babble.  The quality of the rabble on babble is pretty unique, so rather than look for problems with it just enjoy being a part of it.

On the topic of the byelection:

Milton Chan and his team at the Election Prediction Project have placed CCMV into the Too Close Too Call Column.  The EPP had this riding in the Conservative column up until yesterday, no doubt based on the "Tory Country" superstition.

To Stockholm on your observation of NDP support in Bathurst NB and St. John's NL:  Sure, that support is there, but we're talking about 160,000 people or so.  Less than 10% of the population of Atlantic Canada.  As Ken says, mainland NDP support in NS is strong.  It's been trending up over the last 10 years, going from 13-19-20% until the '08 Casey romp in which they placed second.

If there is a problem with organization in Mark's campaign I hope they overcome it soon, becuase this is theirs to lose.

"Well when you attempt to misrepresent polling data you can expect to be lambasted."

JP didn't "misrepresent" polling data - he made it up out of thin air as in total fabrication. The poll he referred to to never existed at all!

I dont remember someone saying one of the Liberals was "full of shit". But it wouldn't surprise me either. There is much harsher language that gets used around here- though mostly in threads I don't go near. And an effort is being made by all to eliminate or limit that.

At any rate, if that is tossed your way, keep in mind it isn't only or especially tossed at the outnumbered Liberals.

But as moriarty said, you can hardly be expected to be fulsomely disputed. And as someone said, we've seen this movie before of individuals coming here and spinning evidence that is far from definitive. 

Weak candidates are a reflection of your levels of support over time. The exact same could be said for the NDP. The support level changes for the NDP are only very recent- though they have been steadily rising. 

My point was and remains that what is a historical distinction of CCMV is not so much that it is a particularly PC/Cons riding, but it and Central Nova have stood out as particulaly low in Liberal support... and have stayed that way and moved into 3rd place with the rise of the NDP. Which is not true for example for SouthWest Nova, or even for the South Shore [where it has become a virtual 3 way tie in terms of underlying support levels].

The reason the short lived 1993 sweep Liberal MPs for Nova North [CCMV then] and Central Nova are such forgettable nobodies is because no one expected a Liberal to win then and the usual sort of candidate ran and happened to win.

And I like and respect Jim Burrows, but I have particular reasons for knowing who he is and what he has done. He is no better known than that long line of Liberal candidates before. I'm inclined to think Mark is somewhat better known because he has circulated more broadly, but they are in the same general category: most people don't know about them and the job of their campaigns is to change that. 

The Liberals are better organized than I expected, given your dissary of the last decade and that this has never been Liberal territory. And right now you seem to be the best organized. But it remains to be seen how far that gets you. Three weeks and a final weekend to go, things are just getting started. Not to mention that the real test of who is organized is in the phone banks, which would still be in slow speed. Sign distribution is often deceiving- and is the thing where healthy long term organization can expect to deliver the goods. But if theres no depth, the phone banks will not be filled and you aren't going to win. 

Agreed that is the NDPs to lose, although I'd adjust that to say that close as it should be, they'll have to be good to win.

I don't think its a problem with organization per se. Just a fact that the NSNDP is very often slow to get started, and very poor at advance work in places like CCMV where there is no history of running winning campaigns... poor advance work even in a case like this where they are in a position to win.

But as moriarty would know the same could be said of those 3 provincial seats that were just won. Zero or negligible advance work, despite the inevitability of the election, and that these were all target seats. That deficiency shows when the campaign starts. But the 3 races were won anyway. And it wasn't just the tide in the NDPs favour. With the possible exception of Truro-Bible Hill [Zann], none were easy to win even with that strong tide. All had really humming campaigns despite the slow starts.

Without a doubt, Jinm Burrows has the most extensive personal network of the candidates. But that doesn't make him a good candidate.

What it does give him is resources to draw on quickly. Lots of people all ready to take signs, and more important for the quick start: ready to go and organize themselves bodies to at least quickly get the signs up at members houses and all the standard public places.

The NDP has more money, more volunteers, more experienced campaigners right at hand, and the all important ready to go canvassing data and marks. The Liberals would have virtually nothing of the latter. And even if the Cons successfully inherited that from Bill Casey [no sure thing], its a bag of mixed value since a great many those people in the data don't support the Conservative Party.

But to use those advantages at all, the NDP first has to have the organization up and running... not to mention Mark having very little of that personal network to jump in for the quick start [even Scott Armstrong probably has more of that as former President of the rding association and as far as i know staying on good terms with Bill Casey].

Mind you, when I say the NDP has more money, thats in comparison to the Liberals. The Conservative Party is guaranteed to drop the spending limit into this campaign, and to not worry that local fundraising will still be diminished because of how Casey was treated. And while the NDP financial support of the campaign will be generous, I rather doubt that the amount from the party will be enough to push it up close to the spending limit.

So..... if you all want to chip in and help match the big mean blue money machine, I or someone else will soon have the link here for Mark Austin's campaign.

Mark Austin's bio, volunteer, get sign, and make donation buttons:

http://unite4change.ca/candidates/15

When Liberals (or anyone else for that matter) only show up here once the campaign starts and spin for a few weeks before leaving again, it's transparent.  And they give you such evidence-based assertions as "he's a stand-out candidate".  What the heck does that mean?  Tell us about meeting numbers or the sign campaign or the number of volunteers or the like, and we'll respect you.

And if you don't take your opponents seriously, why the heck would you expect them to return the favour?  Folks who show up here only at election-time, and do their content-less spin with condescending claptrap thrown in for good measure, should not whine when they get a bit of attitude in return.

Continued here

You're an angry little thing aren't you Ottawaobserver

Numbers......Liberal nomination 231

Opening of Liberal headquarters 178(Jack Layton 100 maybe when he was here????)

One interesting comment from a worker in the campaign office of Jim Burrows.... claims they have been an NDP supporter all their life but switched to Jim Burrows because Jack Layton flip flopped on his non confidence in Harper after the Liberals said they were voting against Harper and it would now be up to the NDP to keep the government alive!

Just found out about this site recently, otherwise would have been involved sooner and will definitely be here the night of the election and beyond. Eventually, we will all get into a productive conversation and debate

J.P., what is a Liberal anyway? And what evidence is there that a razor blade could be inserted between them and the Tories without slicing either one?

Ah yes, like Old Faithful erupting every 18 minutes, its always just a matter of before some Liberal chirps up with the old "Myth of the Lifelong New Democrat" straight from central casting. Just like the little oil soaked bird that seems to pop up on the news every time there's an oil spill.  We've heard it all before "I was a LIFELONG New Democrat, but the  I was horrified that Jack Layton actually criticized Paul Martin and then I was switched to the Liberals in horror", "I was a LIFELONG New Democrat but then the NDP didn't support the Liberals Green Shit in the last election and i could never forgive them"....

You guys should work a little harder at getting your facts right. Up until about 10 years ago, the NDP was essentially non-existent in rural mainland Nova Scotia, so anyone living in CCMV who claims to have been NDP "all their life" is either a. less than 20 years of age b. swpent most of their life in Ontrario or points west, c. is a liar or d. is a figment of the Liberal war rooms imagination.

Lots of people can play this game. Maybe I'll call "central casting" and ask for a LIFELONG Liberal who is disgusted with Michael Iganetieff being a warmonger who supports torture!

This thread should be closed, but before it closes I will say, we have heard this before too:

"Just found out about this site recently, otherwise would have been involved sooner and will definitely be here the night of the election and beyond."

In fact, just a short time ago in the Nova Scotia election threads.

My apologies.....I mentioned the opening with Jack Layton had 100 people in attendance. Just saw the photos of the parade to the NDP office and it looks more like 11 people turned out. Sorry for over exagerating your numbers. I too thought they were a little high

Well, as angry as I've apparently been, I've never sought out a Liberal bulletin board to foist this kind of BS spin on them.

Thanks for stopping by, JP.

FYI - I'll be here at E+1 and E+100. I just discovered this site during some random surfing a few weeks ago and thought it had excellent political news coverage and an intelligent discussion on my riding. So I'll see you on November 10.

Rumour has it Iggy's going to be in the riding on Thursday afternoon.

Here's a question - who owns the Willow Street school that the Tory campaign is holed up in? Is it town or school board property? 

"Rumour has it Iggy's going to be in the riding on Thursday afternoon."

Glad to hear it. Let's face it, its hard to imagine a Canadian politician who is likely to be more of a total turn-OFF to the average person in rural Nova Scotia than Count Ignatieff. The more time he spends in CCMV, the FEWER votes the Liberal candidate will get. If Iggy decided to move to CCMV for the next three weeks, the liberals would probably finish fourth behind the Green party and maybe even fifth behind the Christian Heritage Party.

I ownder if he'll claim that have some second cousin twice removed who is buried some churchyard in Coclchester county?

I was wondering about that HQ in the former school. Quite a surprise.

It could not be a more central location- EVERYONE in Truro drives by it many times a day. And it is one of the schools replaced by the new school Armstrong is principal of!

Whether it has been trnsferred to the town or is school board property still, strikes me as pretty dodgy. But probably not against any rules. They would argue its just a commercial transaction. And its possible they are paying more for it than anyone else would, for its visibility.

But those are just guesses.

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..

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Ottawaobserver, you're welcome. I too was wondering about the Cons HQ. Great location but I wonder what the optics are in the general community? Many considered his Presidency of the NSPC party as the reason for landing the Truro Elementary to begin with!

I think it's a conflict of interest. He is a principal with this school board. Find out their rental policies and also policy around staff taking leaves of absences for political reasons. There actually might be something there. The school board might be in a conflict of interest too.

Incidently, you can ask all these questions as it is a public institution and thus a person in the community can request disclosure.

Oh my, I don't exist.  I'm going to have to break the news to my long-time NDP dad.  It is a good thing my NDP uncle, who ran Federally in rural mainland N.S. over 30 years ago, is not around to hear the news.

Cheers.

He did say essentially non-existant 1weasel.

And its no exxageration. Not to diminish what your Dad and uncle did, but there were always names on the ballots and a few loyal supporters.

I live in Hants East that where John MacDonnel won in 1998 with a 1000 vote plurality, and has got majorities and over 60% ever since. He has got majority margins even in the distant most rural parts where I live.

But prior to 1993 there were 9, count them, NINE people who voted NDP in my poll. People could name who at least 7 of those would be, and puzzled who the other 2 might be. And it was the same number back to the CCF days.

Sure they existed. But there weren't enough of them to fill all the spots in these Liberal urban myths, even if every single one of them had switched to supporting the Liberals.

Now who's spinning. I think he's going to have a positive reception and impact. If you've ever heard the man speak in person or met him face to face you wouldn't say any of the above. Iggy's an impressive and charismatic politician.

By the way - so is Jack - I've met him a few times and he's got the natural leader's gravitas and despite my philosophical differences I think he's a good guy. I'm sure he entirely won over the "100" people who showed up for him (ZING!) the other week.

So far all the polls how that Iggy has crashed and burned as a politician and people seem to find him pompous and arrogant and totaly devoid of any substance. So far the only thing i can think of that he actually believes in is that the war in Iraq was a good idea. Apart from that he seem utterly incapable of taking a position on anything.

closing for length and continuing here.