Latest BC Polling Results - Started July 13, 2010

NDP Leader Carole James sputters despite the B.C. Liberals' freefall in the polls

But the NDP under Carole James has only registered a small increase despite the government's introduction of the hated harmonized sales tax, the two-time resignation of Kash Heed as solicitor general, and a whopping provincial budget deficit, which wasn't disclosed before the election.

A Straight.com on-line survey of more than 300 visitors to this site has offered up a dismal view of James's leadership. As of this morning (July 13), 87 percent of people thought the NDP should replace James as leader before the next election.

Vancouver Sun columnist Vaughn Palmer sugarcoated the situation this morning by suggesting that the latest polling numbers indicate that James would easily defeat Campbell in the next election.

Here's the problem: Campbell's numbers are so dreadful that he won't be around in 2013. The business community won't let him commit hara-kiri in the next election.

The Angus Reid Public Opinion poll also showed that people's view of James has deteriorated over the last three months. How she managed that in the midst of the anti-HST rebellion should baffle her MLAs.

http://www.straight.com/article-333667/vancouver/ndp-leader-carole-james...

Hey NR, why didn't you post the poll and results?!

NDP - 46%

L - 23%

G - 14%

C - 8%

That's a whopping 23% lead. Gordo and the LIEberals will NEVER recover from those numbers with their continuing freefall.

http://www.visioncritical.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/2010.07.13_Poli...

That only adds up to 90% and even in the detailed tables it says nothing about what that other 10% consists of. Is it "other"? Is that this time they decided not to divvy up the DK/NAs? (in which case the numbers are actually NDP - 51% and Liberals 25%?

NDP should assume that the B.C. Liberal leadership race is underway

NDP MLAs find themselves in a difficult position because Taylor or Falcon could make mincemeat of their leader, Carole James, in 2013.

But if the Opposition members state the obvious, they'll be branded as disloyal. So they'll probably sit on the sidelines until it's too late to do anything about it.

Those on the left who worry about the prospect of Kevin Falcon becoming premier and further privatizations can take action.

One option would be to buy a membership in the NDP and try to oust James as leader next year.

There are many potential successors in the NDP who could probably compete more effectively against Falcon or Taylor than the current leader.

On the leftish side, they include Mayor Corrigan or his wife Kathy (who is the MLA for Burnaby-Deer Lake), Vancouver-Kingsway MLA Adrian Dix, Vancouver-Mount Pleasant MLA Jenny Kwan, Vancouver-West End MLA Spencer Herbert, Skeena MP Nathan Cullen, and Burnaby-New Westminster MP Peter Julian, among others.

On the right side of the party, Port Coquitlam MLA Mike Farnworth, Cariboo North MLA Bob Simpson, anti-HST rabble rouser Bill Tieleman, former acting NDP leader Joy MacPhail, Juan de Fuca MLA John Horgan, and Vancouver mayor Gregor Robertson would all likely provide the NDP with a better chance against Taylor or Falcon.

If the NDP wanted a really lively campaign, it would install populist Delta North MLA Guy Gentner as the next leader. He's a bit like a left-wing version of Ralph Klein in that he understands how the average person thinks about politics.

Will the NDP take out its leader in time for the 2013 election? Only if someone gets the process underway this year.

http://www.straight.com/article-333496/vancouver/ndp-should-assume-bc-li...

Give up already. A party that holds a 23 point lead in the polls is not going to dump its leader. Period. Stop dreaming and close ranks.

The NDP will never get above the mid to high 40s in the polls because that it is the traditional ceiling for the "left" in BC. YOu could replace Carol James with whatever dream candidate ytou have in mind and you will still come up against the same road blaock - just like how the federal Tories cen never get above 37% no matter how hapless the opposition is. Realistically, in the current environment, the NDP probably would get above the ceiling becaise we know from past elections that about half of the 14% Green vote will inevitably flow to the NDP and God only knows what happens to to mysterious 10% who are not voting NDP or BC Liberal or Green or BC Conservative? Who are these people??

The BC Liberals pick a new leader, which they will do, and that gap could be closed overnite.

Some BC NDP provincial ridings have already asked for a review of the leadership, but have been told to wait, as apparently there is going to be a vote on the leadership at the convention in November, 2011.

Taylor is likeliest of Liberal saviours

Speculation abounds over Gordon Campbell's future. Personally, I think he will announce sometime next year or early 2012 that he won't be running again
 

http://www.thenownewspaper.com/news/Taylor+likeliest+Liberal+saviours/32...

North Report, are you actually serious about Kevin Falcon? I'm not the biggest Carole James fan, but I'm pretty confident she'd make mincemeat out of him so I'm not even going to address that.

As for Carole Taylor, yes, she's been out of this government but I can think of three strikes against her that would still allow James to beat her.

Strike one: considering the timing of the HST, the government was probably thinking of introducing it before the election. Did Taylor really know absolutely nothing when she was in government? I mean come the fuck on. Strike two: the Liberals are at 23%; this isn't going to magically repair itself if she becomes leader. They'll likely get a bounce when she becomes leader, but that's likely to dissipate by the time of any election. It's possible that they could come back ala the NDP in 1996, but the odds are against it, especially if the BC Conservatives get their acts together, and I doubt that Carole Taylor is as formidable a campaigner as Glen Clark. She strikes me as someone who is better at administration than persuasion. All of this precludes the third strike: I'm pretty sure whatever Liberals haven't flown the coup are probably pissed off at her for throwing them anchors. Does she really have a shot at winning the leadership? I think that's pretty doubtful.

What I think is more realistic is that the Business community will have a minor rapprochement with the NDP and be willing to “endure” their governance. That will be their somewhat public face; they will use rhetoric about working together, etc. Their real plan will be something along the lines of what the Tea-Party/Republican crazies are doing. I.e. no matter how much a James government acquiesces to their demands they'll complain like crazy and try to obstruct NDP progress. Luckily our political system isn’t so easily screwed up, so an NDP majority could easily choose to ignore them, but the business community will have a pliant media to help them and a political constituency that has traditionally been slightly larger than the left in this province. What will matter here are the political will/skills of an NDP government.

So it seems that the chosen delegates at the convention in 2011 get to vote on the leadership review issue.

How are the delegates chosen? Who are ex-officio delegates?

Is all this information available online?

What percentage support would Carole James have to receive at the 2011 convention to be able to block a leadership contest? 80%? 70% 90%?

If the results are that there will be a leadership race, then it is one member, one vote for the next leader. Democracy in action!

Summer of political discontent

James does face a formal review at a party convention in late fall 2011. By secret ballot, delegates will vote on

whether to call a leadership convention within a year.

No one is organizing against her at this point. But I do hear some concern in the party that if the current rumblings continue, then the game may be afoot a year or so from now.

------------------------

Moreover, the party (like the B.C. Liberals) has abandoned delegated conventions in favour of the system of one member, one vote.

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Summer+political+discontent/3269425/sto...

Bill Tieleman wrote a blog post today on the government's plans to market the HST to taxpayers (using their own tax dollars, natch): "You Gotta Be Kidding!"

One thing that caught my eye from the comments:

Gee, and I always thought Premier Norman Bates was the guy in charge of Ontario!

Also, am I the only one who thinks "Carole Who and the Socialist Hordes" would be an awesome name for a band?

Who funds the BC Liberals - we all know the answer.

Who funds the BC NDP - we all know that answer as well.

My hunch is that both of these funding groups are presently unhappy with their respective party leaderships.

I see the BC Liberals doing something about their issue.

What is the BC NDP going to do about theirs? 

Ernie Eves, Bernard Landry, Ujjal Dosanjh, Camille Theriault, Keith Milligan, Daniel Johnson Jr., Kim Campbell, Rita Johnston, Gary Doer, Pierre-Marc Johnson and John Turner (among others) might have something to say about that.

Hi Centrist, did you mean like this?

Angus Reil Poll - July 12, 2010

Party / Election / Apr / Jul 12

NDP / 42% / 47% / 46%

Libs / 34% / 29% / 23%

Cons / 7% / 5% / 8%

I could add to that list of failed attempts to save a dying government by plunking in a new leader: Walter Weir (who went on t lose to Ed Schreyer), Harry Strom (who went on to lose to Peter Lougheed), Jean-Jacques Bertrand (who took over as Quebec Premier after the death of Daniel Johnson and then led the Union Nationale to 17 seats out of 108!)...and let's not forget how Paul Martin was supposed to wipe away the stain of Chretien's sponsorship scandal - yet ended up being a great big FLOP.

Are we ever going to learn the mystery of the missing 10% in the Angus Reid poll?

Well, to be fair, Martin did manage to win one more election (and did much better in 2006 than he deserved to). You're quite right about Weir, Strom, et al - I was just trying to stick to examples from my lifetime!

I'm actually reading Mike Harcourt's autobiography right now, which was published in the wake of Glen Clark's election victory in 1996. Interestingly, it seems that there were some "nervous nellies" in the NDP in the run up to 1991 who contemplated dumping "Mild Mike" over worries he was not "aggressive enough" to take down the Socreds.

Generally speaking, people defeat governments - they don't elect oppositions. The 2001 election is a perfect example of a situation where the voters didn't particular care for the Premier-in-waiting (Campbell has never polled well personally) and actually preferred the new guy on a personal level, but just could not stomach another term of the party in power. If the "throw-the-bums-out" mentality is strong enough, no shiny new leader will be enough to overcome it.

Actually Carole Taylor as Leader of the BC Liberals could become the BC NDP's worst nitemare - NDPers had better learn how to pray that she won't go for it. 

Meanwhile, let's all go back to the real political world, where meaningless polls that are three years away from the next election, are basically that: Meaningless   

Quote:

 Actually Carole Taylor as Leader of the BC Liberals could become the BC NDP's worst nitemare - NDPershad better learn how to pray that she won't go for it. 

The other question, of course, is would she win the leadership even if she ran?  I don't know how popular she would be with some segments of the party.

Someone on babble once came up with a pretty good description of the three dominant factions of the BC Liberal Party. My apologies in advance if I'm butchering the descriptions slightly.

1) the "Seawall" Liberals:  these are your social liberal/fiscal conservative types. Organic coffee and hybrid cars. Favourite haunts include Whole Foods, lululemon and MEC. Love Gordo's green push and the carbon tax. Generally found in large numbers in places like Coal Harbour, Kits, and Fairview Slopes and here in there in Victoria, Kelowna and the Lower Mainland suburbs. Mostly 'creative class' professional types but a few doctors and lawyers thrown in. An ideal Sunday is a non-fat soy latte from Starbucks, the Globe and Mail and a stroll around the Stanley Park seawall with the Lab.  Federal Liberals.

2) the "Howe Street" Liberals: mostly white-collar refugees from the Socreds. Fiscal conservative/big business types. Old money. Cigars and Harry Rosen. Mostly lawyers, bankers, and penny-stock promoters. Favourite haunts include the Vancouver Club, Board of Trade Meetings and the boardrooms of various downtown Vancouver law firms. Tend to live in places like Shaughnessy, Kerrisdale, West Van and Oak Bay, with a smattering in the interior.  An ideal Sunday is eighteen holes at the Marine Drive Golf Club, followed by a scotch in the bar (men only, of course). Voted PC federally in the old days, then Liberal, now back with the Tories.

3) the "Snowmobile Trail" Liberals: social conservatives/populists. Pickup trucks, ATVs (summer) and snowmobiles (winter). Wal-Mart and Costco. Hate the carbon tax. Dominant in places like the Fraser Valley, the Okanagan and the North. Hockey moms and NASCAR dads. Lots of blue collar "Reagan Democrat" types. An ideal Sunday is church with the family, lunch at White Spot, and an NFL game.  The bedrock of the old Reform Party in BC, now solidly in the Conservative camp federally.

Taylor hails from the "Seawall" wing, Falcon from the "Snowmobile Trail" wing. I don't really see an obvious candidate from the "Howe Street" wing (which is where Gordo hails from). I think Taylor will have very little appeal outside of the Seawall faction, whereas Falcon could conceivably scoop a big chunk of the Howe Street crowd and maybe even a few Seawallers if he looks like a winner and tones down the social conservatism. The problem he has is that many of the other potential leadership candidates (eg Rich Coleman, Mike deJong, George Abbott) also hail from the Snowmobile wing and could provide competition for that bloc of support. At the end of the day, it may come down to who can appeal more to the Howe Streeters.  Or we could see a compromise candidate - say Dianne Watts - who can draw from all three camps.

Of course, if the polls had the NDP 23 points behind rather than 23 points ahead - we would never hear the end of it from you about how this evidence that the NDP had to get rid of Carol James. Face it NR - you love to talk about polls when they say something that fits your narrative - when they don't you try to dismiss them.

Full results, from here.

Party // 09e // AUG // SEPT // NOV // MAR // APR // JUN // JUL // Change

LIB // 46 // 34 // 31 // 33 // 35 // 29 // 26 // 23 (Down 23%)

NDP // 42 // 42 // 45 // 47 // 43 // 47 // 46 // 46 (Up 4%)

GRN // 08 // 12 // 11 // 10 // 13 // 14 // 14 // 14 (Up 6%)

CON // 02 // 07 // 07 // 07 // 06 // 05 // 08 // 08 (Up 6%)

OTH // 02 // 05 // 06 // 03 // 03 // 05 // 06 // 09 (Up 7%)

So, yes Carole James is winning, but she's winning by default. It's Van Der Zalm that's doing all the damage for her. Which is fine for now, since the lost Liberal support hasn't coalesced around a third party capable of forming government. Yet.

It's actually 9%. According to Mario Canseco of ARS:

That 9% figure for "Other" is HUGE relatively speaking. I can't ever recall seeing such a high figure for "Other" in BC public opinion polling.

Too funny. I have also always thought that Dalton was the spittin' image of Norman Bates/Antony Perkins.

BTW, your "three dominant factions of the BC Liberal Party" analysis is pretty well bang on.

The 9% "other" is especially high when you consider that it is in addition to 8% for BC Conservatives. Then again keep in mind that there are now two Independent MLAs Vicky Huntington and Blair Lekstrom and maybe more to come - and so that would create some of the bump for "other".

What we are basically seeing is a total collapse of the rightwing coalition in BC - it is reminiscent of the collapse of the PC coalition in the early 90s. The Liberals only won 38% of the vote in the 1993 election (not that much more than what they had when they lost in 1988) but they won a big majority because the PC vote feel apart to Reform to the BQ etc...

I strongly suspect that the "free-enterprise" folks will have a hard time putting the genie back in the bottle after all the populist rage against campbell and the HST led by VanderZalm and that there will be some sort of rightwing populist party running in every riding in the next election - either under the BC Conservative banner or under some yet to be determined name.

Thanks, but I can't take credit for it as "my" analysis. I'm just reproducing something that another babbler came up with, I believe in the run-up to the 2005 election.

Poll shows new leader only Liberal hope

http://www.timescolonist.com/sports/Leyne+Poll+shows+leader+only+Liberal...

The Conservatives will lose the next election as Conservatives seats go to the Liberals in BC and Toronto as the Liberals find themselves in power with a possible NDP oppostion as it is a given in the next election you can count on it as the Liberals sure are.

Liberals are handing NDP an easy win for 2013

http://www.thenownewspaper.com/news/Liberals+handing+easy+2013/3299507/s...

I was looking to see what you had to say about the Federal Liberals North Report because you must have read the polls today?  I did and this is what they say "So long Conservatives, do we hate to see you go, nah." As the parties are neck and neck and it doesn't matter that the Conservatives have more money in the bank because its not money that is creating the great divide.

Campbell is finished and Carol is a shoe in as just wait until the fall when things start to heat up provincially that is and I know why Harper is a goner do you?

Another day, another ARS poll:

NDP: 48% (+2%)

Lib: 27% (+4%)

Green: 13% (-1%)

Con: 6% (-2%)

Other: 6% (-3%)

Approval Ratings:

Campbell: 14%

James: 28%

Momentum Score:

Campbell: -65

James: -6

If Libs were led by Carole Taylor (or Dianne Watts):

NDP: 42% (44%)

Lib: 34% (34%)

Green: 12% (10%)

Con: 6% (5%)

Other: 6% (7%)

So the NDP would retain their 2009 vote but the Libs would drop 12% from their 2009 result.

http://www.visioncritical.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/2010.08.06_Poli...

Do you think the Liberals will be changing their Leader?

I think this is a very good poll for the NDP. First of all - its nice to see the NDP vote edge up to 48% - meaning that the ceiling is gradually lifting. Secondly, its nice to see the NDP retaining a hefty lead even when you suggest some "dream" new leader for the BC Liberals that people can project whatever they want onto. In reality, if either Carol Taylor or Diane Watts actually became BCL leader - they would quickly start to accumulate some negative baggage etc...

Interesting that for all the sniping about Carol James, i have yet to see any polling data that says that the NDP would do better if they were led by anyone else.

Possible scary thought:

If, going into the 2013 election, looked as if the Liberals had no chance at all of catching the NDP in the polls, is it possible that the same people who were once Socreds before taking over the "Liberal" brand would then take over the Greens?

After all, The BC Greens have been, shall we say, fairly flexible about what the party stands for(as were the pre-Campbell Liberals), have been open to "free market" and anti-labour types since its inception, and, since they have never even won a seat (and thus look "clean" and "new" in the eyes of the voters)is it not possible that the Greens could, indeed, become the NEW party of B.C.'s dominant post-World War II political grouping "The Coalition"?

Given the small size of the Greens, it wouldn't be difficult for Socred/Campbell Liberal infiltrators to purchase enough memberships to take it over.

They could try - but the "Green" brand has too much negative equity among voters that the rightwing forces need to attract in BC. All those redneck ranchers in the interior and segments of people working in fisheries and forestry who vote Socred/BC Liberal/federal Tory would never vote for a party called "Green".

That void is more likely to filled by the BC Conservative Party. 

They could possibly unite the Liberal-Tory right as was the case in Saskatchewan in recent years. The biggest war chest for propagandizing the public wins an election as a general rule. The precious phony majority is often bought and paid for, unless, of course, they become too sure of themselves. Like David Peterson's Liberals were too sure of themselves by 1990 in Ontario before that election. The phony majority machine is not exactly the same tool of Bay Street it once was. These BC Liberals are not seeking to usurp an NDP provincial dynasty though. They will be looking to smooth over a number of previous election campaign promises turned sour. Can they do it?

This should be good.  

Recall in the Fall over HST? Count on it, as desperate BC Liberal spin tries to hide reality of negative impact of new tax

Wooing Business Leaders Is Futile for New Dems

Under NDP in 1990s, BC's corporate profits and GDP soared. But hallucinating captains of industry still see scary 'socialists.'

An ironical footnote:

Glen Clark, former NDP finance minister (1991-1993), employment and investment minister (1993-1996) and premier (1996-1999), was hired by Jimmy Pattison in 2001. Last year, Pattison put Clark on Canfor's board of directors, which means that Shepard now reports to, among others, his former political nemesis.

http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2010/08/09/NewDemsShouldBrag/ [38]

That's a very apt analysis on Will McMartin's part, I think certain parts of it bear highlighting:

Jim Sheppard, sounds like the average tea-partier here, i.e. fucking crazy. But despite the jarring craziness of his views this sort of a position (of never wanting anyone leftish to be in power) has a certain strategic merit for the right. It constantly pulls the political spectrum in their direction so long as they have naive partners on the left who think these people have good intentions.

Speaking of intentions our situation essentially mirrors the US situation in another way. Oh sure, the NDP are almost certain to win the 2013 election, like the Democrats did in 2006-08. But in asking for input from wackos (Republicans) who have no interest in seeing the jurisidiction in question do well under Democratic leadership, because that would mean even more Democratic political success, the latter have only managed to come up with half-assed policies that disappoint their base, that can't possibly have the full effect they were hoping for and that their opponents won't give them credit for in any case. I can forgive the Democrats and Obama for this, considering the greater degree to which corporate money via third-party advertising has infected the process and skewed it to the right, not to mention the fact that the American process plays to individual egomanical 'moderates' in the Senate or House who can do a lot to hold legislation up, but this is un-necessary in Canada if one has a majority government. Even Harper has managed to get almost all that he wants through shrewed and decisive political posturing.

Admittedly the economic political compass has been so far skewed to the right in the last thirty years that I don't expect an NDP victory in 2013 to lead to collectivized farms, the elimination of the private sector and the socialization of all economic activity in the name of the people right away. I'll give Chairwoman of the Orange Guard and First Comrade Carole James until the 2021 election to the Third People's Democratic Congress to accomplish that glorious task. In all seriousness though (those two sentences were sarcasm for some of you who couldn't tell), I would hope that the NDP understands that despite the fact that they'll only be leading a provincial government, hence their abilities to move the political centre are limited, that it's in their best interest to start pulling the political spectrum back to the left.

I'm not sure they understand this though. Some new New Democrats seem to be set on the idea that they can appeal to or at least have a truce with people like Shepard.

Well BC NDP, your opponents motivations have been highlighted for you. Would you like that information relayed to you in power point format as well?

This last quote is a little worrisome though:

Well, I only hope that this "our province our future" website is a political sop to the Pollyanna's out there who insist that everyone can "work together", I'm not so sure either way. Of course not all businesses are antithetical to social democrats. Some small and medium sized, as well as potentially truly 'green' ones, could be a natural constituency. But the big ones? Never. Don't get me wrong I'm only a social democrat, not a democratic socialist, so to a certain extent cross-class, cross-sector cooperation is more appealing to me than confrontation for its own sake. But at the same time I'm no Pollyanna and I don't believe that big business will ever give a fuck about what the NDP offers them, because they don't want any leftish parties in power. Period.

I think you're missing the point. The NDP doesn't "seek a truce" because they expect a single solitary Howe St. business tycoon to suddenly post a lawn sign in front of his McMansion in Shaughnessy. It has nothing to do with that. Its about trying to defuse the damaging image that NDP has among many swing voters that they are "anti-business". Given that the vast majority of people work for businesses - it doesn't look good to the average person who pays attention to politics for about 5 minutes PER MONTH - when a party gives off the impression of wanting to declare war on your employer. I see it as being entirely a PR exercise.

Obviously there's an element of PR involved in it and I did point out that possibility. What I object to is actually having them involved in policy development. Now whether or not this "our province our future" thing is a genuine policy development tool, or simply a PR excercise, I don't know. If it's the former*, we may as well throw the next election, cause the one after that will be slaughter. If it's the latter than I have no problem with it.

*Because I think it's a good idea for other sectors of society.

The young workers who are being screwed by Walmart, Tim Horton's et al are especially concerned that a political party not rock their employers' boats.  No use giving them any false hope by proposing that maybe just maybe it is time that other voices where heard in Victoria and not just Howe street and its sycophants.

Looks to me that the BC NDP is still trying to win over middle class liberal voters.  It might just work this time.  The strategy seems to work ever two or three election cycles. 

Bill Maher once remarked that "Americans don't really care what side of an issue you're on as long as  you don't act like pussies," and I think that describes swing voters as well. You're right, the NDP is seen as anti-business among swing voters. Funny thing is, in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, current and former NDP governments have bent over backwards to accomodate business interests, and the right-wingers continued to evoke the spectacle of Bolshevik hordes taking over the government any day. So the PR tactic will not work. The NDP would do much better to stake out a firm, principled social-democratic position and stick to it in the face of media hostility. I think that kind of resolve would impress more people. Members of the former Reform and Alliance Parties who said many mean-spirited things were often easily re-elected in the face of hostile media coverage, in part because they were seen to be "telling it like it is." Why don't strategists for left-wing parties in this country recognize that?

"Funny thing is, in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, current and former NDP governments have bent over backwards to accomodate business interests,...and they keep winning elections!

Bingo. After the 1979 election, Dave Barrett repositioned himself in the same mold. He started to wear blue pin-stripe suits and proudly proclaimed to the media that he was a "fiscal conservative" and also started to attend Chamber of Commerce meetings in that same vein. Ditto Mike Harcourt prior to 1991.

Didn't do Barrett any good.  The NDP LOST seats and vote share in the 1983 election, an election they should've been able to count on winning.  And Harcourt's share of the popular vote in 1991 was LOWER than that of the "hopeless" Bob Skelly in 1986.  If the Liberals had surged ahead of the Socreds a week earlier, the NDP would have lost AGAIN in 1991.

And the marginalized stay at home because they are not the object of anyones electoral desire.  The last time the NDP in BC tried anything truly different than a liberal government was ICBC and the ALR.  Neither of those policies would even be considered by the BC NDP today because they are not business friendly and would lead to fighting with the bosses' of impoverished workers, and we can't have that. 

http://thetyee.ca/Blogs/TheHook/Election-Central/2009/05/13/VoterTurnOff...

Remind me how votes the Workers Communist Party got in the last BC election?

I don't usually do grammar flames but really if you are going to do nothing but post an insult why not at least have it make a complete and intelligible sentence.

So far the BC NDP has lost three straight elections while claiming to be business friendly.  A round table is likely where Glen met Jim so he had a golden parachute. You advocate a strategy that has failed three times in a row and the last two times against an government that was beatable and all you can do is insult the left wing of the political spectrum.  

Carry on, I hope for all our sakes that you win in spite of yourselves.  Because the thought of Chris or one of the Zalm's other lieutenants gaining the crest to ride the anti-government wave scares me more.

I remember that election very well - my first one. At the beginning of the campaign it was an NDP slam dunk. The Socreds were coming out of the "Dirty Tricks" scandal, BC was experiencing a mini-depression,  and the Socreds were low in public opinion.

Former Socred voters were interviewed on TV all across the province by BCTV who stated that they would now vote NDP for the first time in their lives. It was like manna from heaven.

But Barrett made a major strategic gaffe at a radio talk show in Cranbrook in response to a caller's question. Barrett stated, for the first time, that the NDP would rescind the Socred's "6[%] and 5[%]" public sector wage restraint program during those dire economic times.

The BC Fed was dead set against the 6 and 5 program. Private sector workers were receiving nil wage increases and 6% and 5% looked pretty good for the public sector in comparison - let alone larger increases.

And that's when the political tide markedly turned.

If you can think of a single solitary example in recent history of a party in the "western world" winning an election on a far left platform that included a declaration of war against business - I'd like to hear about it. There is a cornucopia of "anti-capitalist" parties in European countries that have PR - they are all mired in single digit support.

Again with the distortion of what I said.  THe NDP declared itself business friendly many election cycles ago.  I nor anyone else has sad they should run on a a make war on business platform.  That is merely a figment of your delusional mind. If you must make things up please stop attributing them to me.

Carry on in your attack mode like you and your ilk on Kingsway have been doing for 15 years. I am sure you are on the verge of successfully backing into office.

It has historically not mattered much what the NDP did in BC.  If the right split, they won, if the right didn't split, they lost.  What is interesting this cycle is the possibility of winning against a non split right.

Except that back in the 40s, 50s and 60s when the BC NDP was much more "socialist" than it has been in the last 30 years - there was a very split rightiwng vote - and the NDP kept losing regardless because they ceiling seemed to be about 34% (compared to the current ceiling that seems to be in the high 40s)

Just like how the Saskatchewan NDP won the last provincial election, right? Oh wait a minute....

Maybe somebody should have announced yesterday that when they form the next government, one of their first acts will be to fire BC"s Chief Electoral Officer for attempting to circumvent the will of the people over the successful HST petition. The BC Liberals must be laughing at the softball lobes thrown their way be the opposition. Isn't it way past time to start playing hardball in BC?

Antri-HST petition upheld in BC

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/british-columbia/anti-hst-p...

Which Liberal MLA will be the first to be sent packing from the BC Legislature?
Anti-HST proponents turn sights on MLAs

Read more: http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Anti+proponents+turn+sights+MLAs/3392244/story.html#ixzz0wSXN74WZ

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Anti+proponents+turn+sights+MLAs/339224... [59]

How government contracts get bid on and tendered in good ole Liberal government-run BC.

Fraser Transportation Group chosen as preferred bidder for South Fraser Perimeter Road, surprising many.

Well said. I couldn't agree more.
Elections BC's Bizarre Decision on HST

Holding petition from Leg until court decides sure to motivate recall campaigns.

Palmer is a very insightful observer of B.C. politics. He may have realized on his own that James was about to frustrate over 700,000 British Columbians who signed the petition by refusing to forward it to the legislative committee, but it is also possible that someone whispered that suggestion in his ear.

I beg to differ with Palmer's interpretation that the law is silent on how soon the petition should be forwarded to the committee. Section 10 of the act states that if the petitioner obtains the required signatures and satisfied the reporting requirements to Election BC, then "... the chief electoral officer must send a copy of the petition and draft Bill to the select standing committee."

It doesn't say the chief electoral officer must send a copy of the petition and draft Bill to the committee when he gets good and ready. It doesn't give the chief electoral officer any legal basis for delay. Section 29 of the Interpretation Act states that the word "must" is to be interpreted as "imperative".

Dictionary definitions of imperative include very important, vital, crucial, essential, urgent, of the essence and necessary. A delay of years while arguments wind through various appeals, perhaps to the Supreme Court of Canada, is a gross violation of the act and the meaning of must.



If this happened in France, there would probably be a general strike. In other countries, more violent results would be likely, but in Canada we will express frustration and ask the court to order the chief electoral officer to immediately exercise his duty. Meanwhile, thousands of volunteers who worked on the petition campaign will ready themselves for recall campaigns beginning in mid-November.

http://thetyee.ca/News/2010/08/12/BizarreHSTDecision/ [62]

Can NDP Tiptoe to Victory?

Polls show BC's Liberals are wounded. Carole James had better not assume they are dead.

Can pussycat politics prevail in this province? Or does winning require a snarling tiger? It's one or the other, folks.

The New Democratic Party must answer that question soon.

Very soon.

http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2010/07/19/NDPTiger/

After winning two elections since the mid 1970's you would think someone would devise a new strategy.  Glen lost but the FPTP system gave him a phony majority.  

JR you are wrong to say the next election will be a two way race. The recall campaign is going to raise a new right wing party up to take the anti-government vote.  They are going to start in old "Reform" ridings that they know will get the anti-government vote and the BC Liberals will be sent packing.  If the Zalm and his henchmen (cheered on by the NDP) successfully recall a northern MLA that MLA will be replaced by the rights next incarnation not the NDP. 

The powers that be in BC are in the process as we speak of readying a new vehicle to rule with.  Much like no one had heard of the BC Liberals for many decades until the anti-government sentiment became so loud another vehicle was needed for the rulers of this province.  If history is any judge there will be a new right wing party gaining significant seats but not enough to win government and after one election cycle it will replace an anemic NDP government with an  anti-tax libertarian slanted message disseminated with scads of howe street money.

Its been a noted a few times that every time the NDP has won in BC - it was because there was a split in the anti-NDP vote. I would welcome the creation of a populist rightwing small "c" conservative party that would cannibalize the BC Liberal vote and create three way races across the province. That would be a recipe for the NDP to win 70 seats!

Yup and get a one term government followed by an even more right wing government.  Do you have a problem seeing patterns in events?  If you sell the status quo then you can only ever be a one term government.  That is the lesson of history for the NDP in BC

With the appearance of a right party now is precisely the moment to try and reach out to the poor and marginalized young voters with bold visions.  You are not going to lose your base if you do that and you will be building a future party. Instead you chase middle class votes because your dream is about forming government not societal change. I have a hard time believing the NDP can lose the next election if a right alternative emerges from the anti-HST battle.  But I also know that if the NDP does not reach out to the youth of this province they are never going to bring about meaningful change.  You seem to think telling them that the NDP will be nice to their bosses is the way to win hearts and minds.  I don't agree because I think it leads to more and more of the population being apolitical and that is fatal to any democracy. If the citizens don't care then the rich rule unregulated.  

As has been pointed out before - there are all kinds of parties in Europe that are running on the kind of far-left anti-capitalist platform you propose - and they are all stuck with single digit support. In any case, I suspect that the market for such a party is not actually "young disaffected people" but rather a lot of people in their 50s with grey pony tails who want to relive their glory days from the 1960s.

Unlike the real movers and shakers in the BC NDP who remember their glory days at the disco meat market.  The disco ducks are the ones I've always worried about.

Like "Die Linke" in Germany, having just won its best ever showing effectively rendering the main-line social-democratic party irrelevant?

I'm sure there would have been some CCFers saying exactly that right before the 1952 election

So let's take a good look at what's coming to some ridings near you in BC

BC May 12, 2009 General Election Results 

Party / Seats

Libs / 49

NDP / 35

Ind / 1

Total 85 seats

BC Present, Aug 13, 2010 Seat Standings

Party / Seats

Libs / 48

NDP / 35

Ind / 2

Total 85 seats

Therefore to control the government in the Legislature the Liberals actually require 44 seats - don't forget the Speaker. so if the Liberals lose only 5 seats in the upcoming Recall campaigns, and the resulting by-elections end up in different election results, the Liberals could lose control of the government.

And which seats will be targeted for Recall campaigns?

My first choice is Vancouver-Fraserview

http://thetyee.ca/News/2010/04/09/KashStepsDown/

I hope Campbell does reappoint Heed to Cabinet - the bigger they are, the harder they fall.
Don't bet against Heed to 'Kash in' yet again

http://www.theprovince.com/news/against+Heed+Kash+again/3366642/story.ht...

Erasing emails - how convenient. Couldn't they be retrieved with the proper technicians?

"What they're doing is they're lobotomizing themselves. They're giving themselves organizational Alzheimer's, because they are going to be unable to reach back and get those memories."

http://www.squamishchief.com/article/20100813/SQUAMISH0304/308139951/-1/...

And the emergence of Social Credit would have had the effect of creating a CCF landslide in 1952, had it not been for the dying Liberal-Conservative coalition implementing a corrupt electoral system before that election-a system designed for the sole purpose of stopping a CCF victory.

I think you are referring to the AV (Alternative Voting) system that was used in BC in that time where people got to rank parties on their ballot. YOu may not like the result it yielded, but there is nothing "corrupt" about it. Its the system that the UK will give a thumbs up or thumbs down to in a referendum next year, its the system in place in Australia and its a system that many of us would LOVE to have in Canada so that we could all rank Tory candidates dead last and not have to worry about "vote splitting"

It is corrupt in the sense that it produced a wrong winner victory in that election.  The CCF defeated the Socreds by four percentage points in the popular vote, yet the Socreds ended up with a one seat plurality over the CCF, thus allowing the Socreds to form a minority government(with "old party" support), introduce some kind of a "goody" budget, return the electoral system to FPTP and win a majority in 1953.

The BC result makes a clear case for why MMP should be the electoral system of choice.

Vander Zalm to circumvent HST petition delay

Vander Zalm has said Fight HST members are already planning to put the heat on Liberal MLAs by recalling them if they don't repeal the tax.

http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2010/08/13/bc-hst-vander...

Be careful. Those are EXACTLY the arguments that the Tories used to claim that the coalition was "illegitimate" and to claim that only the party with the plurality seats should ever be allowed to government. Who cares if the CCF beat the Socreds by four percent. Evidentally most of the people who voted Liberal or Conservative decided that they preferred SC to the NDP on their preferential ballots. That's democracy and that's fair.

Next week in Australia its very likely that on "first preferences" the rightwing Liberal/National coalition will be in first place with about 42% of the vote and Labor will be in second place with 39 or 40% - but Labor will win the election because the third party in Oz is the Green Party which is likely to get about 12% - but polls seem to indicate that Green voters will preference Labour over the Liberals by a margin of about 85%-15% - meaning that the "two-party preferred" vote will end up Labor 53% and Libs 47%. I think that is FANTASTIC system because people can feel free to make a statement by voting Green but still preference Labour ahead of the Liberals. I only wish to God that we had that system in Canada and then we would probably lock the Tories out of ever forming a government ever again!!

Incidentally, if BC had had MMP in 1952 the CCF would have ended up with 31% of the seats in the legislature, while Social Credit would have had 27% of the seats, the BC Liberals 24% and the PCs 17%. You can be 100% certain that the three rightwing parties would have instantly formed a coalition government with their 69% of the seats to keep the CCF out of power - end of story!

But who would have supported the CCF in a minority house?

FWIW, the 1952 election results based upon FPTP:

CCF - 21

Labour - 1 (Tom Uphill)

SC - 14

Lib - 9

PC - 3

After AV:

CCF - 18 (-3)

Labour - 1 (same)

SC - 19 (+5)

Lib - 6 (-3)

PC - 4 (+1)

Even under FPTP, I don't know if the CCF would have formed gov't. Labour's Tom Uphill supported the Socreds to form gov't and the Libs and PC's were more likely to support the SC's than the CCF.

Recalling Falcon, one of the people being touted to repalce Campbell, now that would be sweet.  

Furious Vander Zalm turns to recall

Huntington cautions HST opponents to tread carefully after elections BC decision not to send petition to legislature

Huntington said it's understandable people want to act in response to the government stomping on the democratic process, but opponents of the controversial tax must remember to concentrate their resources on a few ridings to ensure success.

She said there's no justification for the government not to follow through on the requirements of the Initiative Act now that the petition has been declared valid.

"You can see the cabinet members and the government members toasting their good luck," she said.

Huntington said the move by Elections BC calls into question its independence.

"I think we have a legitimate democratic process under threat right now in the courts," she said.

"Big business has ganged up on Mr. Vander Zalm and I think we owe him some support in his court case. I think people should be supporting the heavy cost. This is so typical with the struggles we're having with government these days."

Patricia Enair, the regional organizer for Fight HST, said the decision hasn't been made yet who to target for recall, but it looks like Surrey-Cloverdale MLA Kevin Falcon might be the preferred choice.

Delta won't be part of any recall efforts with Huntington in Delta South and the NDP's Guy Gentner in North Delta.

 http://www.nsnews.com/news/Furious+Vander+Zalm+turns+recall/3397579/story.html

Sounds like an excellent strategy to me.

I wonder which political party Bill Bell, columnist for the North Shore News is affiliated with. Well, wouldn't you know it, thanks to Alice Funke at Pundit's Guide, we know he was previously a candidate for the federal Liberals. Who knew!  

http://www.punditsguide.ca/2010/07/catching-up-with-liberal-nominations-the-west/ [83]

NDP campaign built on silence

http://www.nsnews.com/news/campaign+built+silence/3401134/story.html [84]

"Beware the Falcon bird, And shun the furious Vander Zalm"?

I presume lawyers don't mind being considered ridiculous as long as they are making themselves rich in the process.  

http://www.theprovince.com/business/Even+toothless+tiger+power+kill/3416...

Judge gives Gall the finger over his pro-HST silliness.

The Zamm is a happy camper tonite, but this spells more trouble for both Harper and Campbell

http://www.cbc.ca/consumer/story/2010/08/20/bc-hst-petition-court-decisi...

Whatever, whenever, he's done.
Quite a weak article as in tell us something we don't know.

http://www.themarknews.com/articles/2066-the-fall-of-gordon-campbell

Now what? Oh, that's right, recall!

http://www.vancouversun.com/business/Zalm+forces+business+Supreme+Court/...

The Zalm is getting his revenge on the man and the cabal he belongs too who showed him to be the corrupt asshole he is.  I am sure what really galled the Zalm was having people even more corrupt than he was doing the expose on him.  Much of this little drama is very, very personal.

Many agree the last election was very, very questionable as many where unhappy with the Liberals and still believe the whole thing was fixed just like the media for sure. The HST was the last straw that will stop Campbell from coming back as what is his claim to fame but eliminating government and giving public companies CEOs who have been under controversy for questionable practices at that while leaving British Colombians out in the cold.  ICBC comes up with a billion or so where did public company get that, beating down British Colombians who where in serious accidents no doubt while charging to much.  And suddenly the money appears and one would wonder what was party going to do with that.  Rumor is the money is now going be used to pay back Harper for his part in the HST and I guess many will wait for the court case to see what the judge decides about the Constitutional challenge while citizens will be very busy bringing down the Liberal party.   I just couldn't imagine the Liberals winning even if party is up to dirty tricks while fixing things so party comes out on top. This is a for certain the public will revolt and the Liberals will find themselves in a position no party would ever want to be in as public anger continues to boil spells big trouble ahead for Campbell who continues play all those dirty tricks, like no legislature until the new year says he is grasping at straws.

And as a point of infornation about Peter Gall he is a labour lawyer who is one of the non-elected insiders who make the decisions of the BC Liberals . He and his firm have been at the epicentre of the anti-union and anti-worker legislation enacted by this government and have led every major charge against workers rights in this province for 25 years. He and the people around him have been drafting anti-worker laws since the Bill Bennett days in the mid'80's.

Oh, oh.

NDP admits it will be tough to kill the HST

In a phone interview with the Straight, Chris Delaney, the lead organizer of the Fight HST campaign, downplayed the challenges involved in scrapping the revenue measure.

Delaney said that it will be a "little bit awkward" if the province opts out of the HST deal early. He laid the blame squarely on the B.C. Liberals, saying, "It's stupid that we have to do this, but that's their fault for being idiots."

http://www.straight.com/article-340002/vancouver/ndp-admits-it-will-be-t... [94]

Its true, it will be tough (but not impossible) to kill the HST three years after it will have been in place. I think Bruce Ralston is just stating the obvious if you actually read the story its all linked to.

It is before the courts what do you think it will take 5 years before getting a judgement? 

If the HST is going to be tabled it has to be done by its creators not another party who didn't have a say in the hst being implemented and it is before the courts going through the constitutional test. 

What would you say if I told you the premier is up to his old tricks....BC Rail how about the Gateway Project you know to ensure the US could unload the tar sands because the president and environmentialist and businesses around the world where getting in their face.  What does it mean to Canadians well it just helped America unload its very controversal tar sands to China who dosen't give a damm as Campbell and Harper made it a billions of dollars dream come true for US Oil company.  What a bunch of nice guys, Campbell and Harper as spend billions of Canadian dollars to help the deal go down as China is now the biggest investor in tar sands thanks to Gateway where one door closes and another door opens.  Canada is goosed because the world says bad Canada don't go there and China well what can you say to a country bent on shipping 500,000 barrels of tarsands everyday to its homeland?

Climate change skeptic and opponent Mr. Harper, and of course Mr. Campbell who would be seen as a climate change opportunist instead as carbon tax was another money grab.

both will do anything to defend China's Authorities, in order

to sell China-Canada's Dirty Oilsands as US company sells to China thanks to Gateway project. China is planning on shipping the already dirty oilsands over 1200km on the planned Northern Gateway pipeline, the Enbridge Corp pipeline-then shipping it on even more dirtier,

dangerous giant oil tankers, from Kitamat, B.C. To China. All this to avoid impending U.S. Climate Regulations

Wet'suwet'en call for (Alberta Oil Sands) pipeline boycott anywhere near native land.

So, does this mean BC Cabinet Minister Colin Hansen is a Liar? I'm shocked, I tell ya, just shocked.

Well Liberals I suppose you have better get rid of that dastardly freedom of information legislation, otherwise all sorts of other nasties will float to the surface.

http://www.winnipegfreepress.com/canada/breakingnews/bureaucrats-researc...

It kinda makes one wonder what they have on him

B.C. Liberal calls for Colin Hansen's resignation, then retracts

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/british-columbia/bc-liberal...

NDP finance critic filing complaint against Hansen

http://www.ctvbc.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20100903/bc_Ralston_100...

NDP finance critic filing complaint against Hansen

http://www.ctvbc.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20100903/bc_Ralston_100...

NDP finance critic filing complaint against Hansen

http://www.ctvbc.ctv.ca/servlet/an/local/CTVNews/20100903/bc_Ralston_100...

Actually it is the mainstream press that are the ones here who, obviously purposely, are missing the bigger picture

 The mainstream press can blather on all they want but they basically reelected these Liberal creeps.

 Hansen and the mainstream press are both scumbags.

 After all, the investigative mainstream press were nowhere to be found during the election

Hansen's defense misses the real issue

http://www.timescolonist.com/news/Hansen+defence+misses+real+issue/34826...

One more theory to explain Finance Minister Colin Hansen's handling of the HST

But there is a fourth explanation, which I didn't mention in the previous blog post.

It's that Hansen never knew that there was a secret plot to introduce the HST after the election because his boss, Premier Gordon Campbell, never told him about it.

As a result, Hansen can glibly and quite honestly say that the HST was not on his radar screen before the May 2009 election.

Here's some of the circumstantial evidence to support this theory:

One: The premier's advisory body of heavy hitters from the business community, the B.C. Progress Board, release a report [106] in December 2008 recommending the harmonization of federal and provincial sales taxes.

The report was prepared by the Centre for the Study of Living Standards [107].

"The CSLS maintain, and we agree, that the most dramatic area for improvement in business investment is through a harmonized sales tax," B.C. Progress Board chair Gerry Martin says in a December 12, 2008 news release [108].

The chair of the premier's own advisory committee notes in the news release that "this is a move that would likely be met with public opposition and concern", so Campbell decides not to introduce legislation before the election.

Two: Campbell appoints Graham Whitmarsh as deputy finance minister on January 19, 2009. Whitmarsh formerly worked in Campbell's office as the head of the climate change secretariat.

Three: Within two days of taking the job, Whitmarsh sends a think tank's report on the HST to a key ministry staffer. This bureaucrat, Glen Armstrong, later writes the six-page briefing memo on the HST to Hansen, dated March 12. Hansen tells the media this week that he paid little attention to it.

Four:: In February 2009, Hansen introduces a budget with an absurdly low $495-million deficit. The revenue numbers are laughable to anyone who has paid attention to the economy. Perhaps Hansen is merely following the recommendations of his bureaucrats, headed by Whitmarsh, a former top official in the premier's office.

Meanwhile, finance ministry staff under Whitmarsh's direction work with their federal counterparts, miraculously reaching a compromise on the HST that includes a $1.6 billion signing bonus for B.C. This will help address the shortfalls in the February 2009 fudge-it-budget.

After the election, the premier tells Hansen that the government should consider introducing the HST. The finance ministry officials tell Hansen that they've negotiated a deal with the feds.

And Hansen, like the loyal minister that he is, marches into the spotlight with the premier on July 23, 2009 to announce that the province will implement a harmonized sales tax. Little does he realize that this news conference will destroy any chance of him succeeding Campbell as premier.

I'm not saying that this is what really happened. But if the premier was a really nasty scheming bastard, this would be a good way to get the job done, leaving a key minister to take the heat. It would offer the added benefit of clearing the way for an ardent right winger, such as Health Minister Kevin Falcon, to become Campbell's successor.

http://www.straight.com/article-344665/vancouver/one-more-theory-explain... [109]

http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Liberal+organizer+calls+Gordon+Campbell+resign/3486956/story.html

Apparently Barbie is a favorite of the Liberal party and she fits in real well as Taylor is a natural when it comes to selling out to big banks and corporate heads.

I guess the next question is who is going to follow Campbell as the Recalls start and Hansen's resignation isn't a bad idea for the party either and I wouldn't want to be Hansen when Campbell steps away.

"Its My Party And I'll Cry If I Want To", isn't working for the premier as party organizer says to the premier your "Mr. Lonely" and "The Party is Over" for Mr. Campbell, the biggest party goer the legislature ever had.

Apparently, any attempt to appeal to the poor or get young people to care about left politics would require the NDP to run on a "far-left, anti-capitalist platform"?

Half of the population of BC - a record low - did not even bother to vote in 2009.  That is a substantial drop from 58 percent in 2005 and it's a pretty sad commentary on the state of democracy.  These are surely the FIRST people the NDP should be appealing to, but they need to see and believe that their lives will be substantively better under an NDP government.  The HST is not a bad tax per se, though it is part of shifting the tax burden more and more on to more and more of the population, away from the people who own and run the province.  People are mostly mad about the way the tax was implimented and they are mad at politicians in general because they are not doing jack for people.  Are the NDP going to come out and campaign in three years on repealing the HST?  Probably not.  Instead, tell the people what you are going to do for them with the money!

http://www.straight.com/article-346623/vancouver/ndp-committee-members-d...