The Marie Factor: Is Alberta premier being pushed, or looking to jump?

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Ed and Marie Stelmach are still on the job. But are they enjoying it? A persistent buzz says the First Couple of Alberta have had enough and are looking for a graceful way to slip out the side door.

Is the suggestion that Marie Stelmach [3] has had it, even if Ed hasn't, fact or hopeful fiction? Who the heck knows? It's August and there's nothing much to report on but rumours here in the rainy New West.

But this buzz sure sounds like the glimmering of an exit strategy for a leader who clearly continues to flounder -- and if you doubt that statement, just watch this pathetic video [4] posted by Premier Stelmach's supporters on Youtube. For heaven's sake, talk about getting the least out of social media!

Of course, if you're the under-performing premier of Canada's richest province and the leader of a party that's drifting aimlessly toward the election hot zone, nothing's as simple as just saying you're not going to run again.

Saying he was quitting was no problem last week, of course, for Kevin Taft, the erudite [5] former leader of the Alberta Liberals and the best premier Alberta never had. Taft intentionally let it slip that he won't be running again [6] in his Edmonton-Riverview riding. But then, back in 2008 the former University of Alberta professor had been replaced as Liberal Leader by Calgary physician David Swann [7].

So Taft happily told anyone who would listen that he would stay on as an MLA and incisive Opposition health critic until the next election, but after that he was going to pack up his sorrows in his old kitbag and smile, smile, smile as he fades into Alberta history.

If the premier really is thinking of pulling the plug, however, it's going to take his Alberta Conservatives some time to get far-right Finance Minister Ted Morton [8]'s leadership campaign all queued up to take on both whatever Red Tory challengers his own party spits out and the spectre of Danielle Smith's Wildrose Alliance Party even farther to the right.

With the Alberta Liberals drifting toward irrelevance under the kindly (but also under-performing) Swann, the New Democrats thoroughly marginalized outside half a dozen ridings and the fledgling Alberta Party still focused on talking to itself over coffee and cakes at least until October [9], this scenario lends itself to the dreary prospect of two leaders who are already far to the right of most Albertans arguing about how much farther right to take the province.

Why all this talk just now? Well, it impacts election timing, of course. Stelmach used to insist an election would not happen until March 2012, but he's been suspiciously silent on that of late. The Opposition parties in the Legislature are pushing the idea a vote could be as early as this October, which if nothing else helps light a fire under their supporters.

But it also has to do with the 77-per-cent endorsement [10] Stelmach received in his mandatory leadership review last November at the Conservative Convention in Red Deer. It was said then that behind the scenes he was given a year by party heavyweights to right his foundering Tory ship. We'll back you now, they said, but we'll reconsider our support in a year.

With his year of grace almost up, many of those Conservative stalwarts -- panicked by the prospect of a challenge from the Wildrose Alliance in their own electoral districts -- are feeling heat to pull their support from Stelmach.

Again, it can't be verified on the public record, but two senior members of Stelmach's cabinet, Transportation Minister Luke Ouelette [11] and Treasury Board President Lloyd Snelgrove [12], are said to have reminded him last week of their commitment in the fall. Why? Perhaps because they think the decks of the good ship Tory are still awash with seawater.

Indeed, recent taxpayer-financed secret polling by Alberta's Ministry of Propaganda, which is more commonly known as the Public Affairs Bureau, is said to show the Conservative Party going nowhere, but at least holding its own in public popularity. However, the same secret poll is reported to show the premier's personal ratings plummeting.

A leader-approval poll done for a private client late last year showed Stelmach and Smith effectively tied in most regions of the province, with the premier leading in the Edmonton region by about the same margin the Wildrose leader was leading in the Calgary region.

If Stelmach's personal ratings are now falling, this might account for the growing chatter about his future in Conservative circles, including the increasingly important assessment of how much Marie Stelmach is enjoying life.

Political observers must await a public poll on how Alberta's political leaders are faring to see if it conforms to these reports. While they wait, Conservative caucus members can be expected to grow increasingly antsy. The public, meantime, may start paying more attention in the fall.

In the end, though, it may be the Marie Factor that has the most impact on what happens next.

This post also appears on David Climenhaga's blog, Alberta Diary [13].

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