Why 'uniting the right' will never happen

If only the Progressive Conservatives and the Canadian [sic] Alliance could resolve their differences, a united right wing party could form a strong opposition to the Liberals or even win the next federal election.

Or, so go the political wet dreams of every Canadian ultra-conservative from Alberta Premier Ralph Klein to Ontario Cabinet Minister Tony Clement. They can cross all of their fingers and toes, jump up and down and scream, and hold their breath until they turn blue. Itâe(TM)s simply not going to happen — not now, not after the next election, not ever. Here are five reasons why:

1) Real Tories simply hate the Alliance (and its predecessor, Refoooooorm).

Federal Tories still proudly hold on to the fact that their party “brought Canada together” (by which they mean that the first government of Canada was headed by a Conservative). They remember wistfully that Diefenbaker and Mulroney won the two largest majority governments of the twentieth century. It doesnâe(TM)t matter that those victories occurred 45 and 19 years ago, or that the party was very nearly obliterated in the 1990s. In fact, the PCs actually blame a lot of their recent difficulties on the emergence of Reform in 1993, believing essentially that “things were just fine until YOU came along.”

2) Brian Mulroneyâe(TM)s coalition has fallen apart and canâe(TM)t be put back together.

Mulroney won a majority in every province in 1984 by simultaneously appealing to the Quebec nationalists who hated Pierre Trudeau and the western conservatives who hated Pierre Trudeau. The coalition couldnâe(TM)t be a permanent one, however, as these groups also hated each other. The Tories know that Quebecois remember the “no Quebec politicians” ads that were run by Reform in the 1997 election and will steer clear of any united party that smells like mean spirit. As well, the Atlantic and Quebecois Tory tradition is way more progressive than the Alberta-based Alliance has ever understood.

3) One canâe(TM)t make assumptions about votersâe(TM) second choices.

Eliminate the Tories and all their votes will go to the Alliance. Eliminate the Alliance and all their votes will go to the Tories. Add their votes together and the Liberals will go down in defeat, riding after riding. Unfortunately, politics are not quite that simple — nor are voters.

The majority of voters cannot tell left from right on a political spectrum any more than a three year old can tell the difference between their left and right shoes. Itâe(TM)s not that they are unsophisticated, they just donâe(TM)t care. Many Alliance voters are primarily populists, and many of them used to vote NDP. If the Alliance ever merged with the Tories, theyâe(TM)d be more likely to go back to voting NDP. That may seem counterintuitive, but thatâe(TM)s what pollsters find in survey after survey.

Moreover, the disappearance of one party is just as likely to help the Liberals as any “united right” party, for the Liberals are the second choice of over a third of all Tory and Alliance voters.

4) The Liberals have already united the right.

Take a look at what two right wing parties have been advocating since 1993: tax cuts, balanced budgets, cuts to social programs, free trade deals. Now, compare that agenda to what the Liberals have actually implemented and itâe(TM)s pretty easy to see why a united right wing alternative to the Liberals has never caught fire. The only alternative thatâe(TM)s needed to the Chretien and Martin Liberals is a progressive alternative. NDP leader Jack Layton calls it “uniting the bright.”

5) Canadians donâe(TM)t want to elect a more right wing government than the one that we already have.

To the extent that it does exist, vote splitting is hardly the only reason for the Liberalsâe(TM) current stranglehold on power. Quite simply, an Alliance government has never been and never will be elected because Canadians donâe(TM)t want an Alliance government. Thatâe(TM)s why they are sitting at 11% in the latest EKOS poll, behind the NDP and the Tories. Ekos pollster Frank Graves notes that this is because they are “totally offside the mainstream on all the key national issues over the past year be it Iraq, be it Kyoto, be it health care or taxes and that consistency is really damaging them. You name it, they just are in a place where most Canadians aren't.”

Another recent poll — this one by Environics — found that Canadians are very suspicious of any political party that wants to cozy up any further with the Americans. Thatâe(TM)s exactly what Alliance leader Stephen Harper is doing on virtually every issue. In fact, if current trends in Alliance support continue, itâe(TM)s conceivable that there will be one national conservative party running in the next federal election.

Comments