Don't be fooled by all the analysts. Dalton McGuinty is king of Ontario. Whether or not he finally gets the magic 54 seats required for a formal majority, the province is his. With far and away the most seats and with a slim lead in the popular vote, why does he have to heed anything the NDP or Conservatives want?

How can he be defeated? Is there an alternative grouping that could demand to govern? Could the Hudak and Horwath forces unite to support a Tim Hudak government? Could they even dream of joining in a no-confidence motion that would force another election? All scenarios other than Mr. McGuinty ruling exactly as if he had a majority are out of the question.

There will be no Israeli-Palestinian spring. At the United Nations, Israel's closest, most reliable allies are once again assuring the nation a future of isolation, insecurity, irreconcilable internal division, international condemnation and endless conflict. For the people of Israel, a life of perpetual anxiety is assured. As my family used to put it, is this good for the Jews?

Just as the technique of politicians is often to fake sincerity, so the skill of the pundit is to fake intelligence. Whether through a newspaper column or TV panel, the bloviating pundit offers up insights that ordinary folks lack. It's a great gig if you can get away with it.

But what happens when pundits can't even pretend to have a clue about what's going on? It's been a hallmark of Stephen Harper's reign that we keep meeting this kind of embarrassing problem, threatening the very existence of the commentariat as a class. Think of the fiasco over the long-form census, which the Prime Minister invented though it never had a soupcon of sense about it. Neither ideology nor politics seemed at play. The punditocracy, like real people, were bamboozled.

For some incomprehensible reason, there's apparently a move within some quarters of the New Democratic Party to organize a short, swift leadership contest with the vote coming in January. This would be a mistake -- and to suggest, as some do, that it's what Jack Layton wanted, is simply wrong.

Look at the absolutely unprecedented opportunity the NDP now has, building on the recent week-long celebration, so much of it spontaneous, of Jack's life, work and values. It can:

- build the party;

- greatly increase the membership;

- give prospective candidates enough time to make a thoughtful decision;

- give MPs who enter the contest enough time to campaign;

- give new MPs from Quebec the time to develop viable riding associations;