Alberta Election - Thread #4

141 posts / 0 new
Last post
ghoris

Howard wrote:

 

The Liberals are actually coming up with some good reasons why not to strategically vote PC to stop the Wildrose:

Ted Morton, leader of the officlal opposition

 

Doubtful. Morton is going to lose his seat and lose badly. All of his supporters decamped for Wildrose a long time ago, hence his pitiful showing in the last leadership race.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Craig Oliver on CTV's QP today said Smith will give Alberta budget surpluses back to the taxpayers, will erect Harper's firewall around Alberta, and is against using Alberta revenues for equalization - I think we're discussing this on another thread.

An Alberta pundit on that same show said Alberta has a history of going crazy every 25 or 30 years and electing a governing party with little or no experience and they learn on the job.

ETA: the QP power panel talked about the ramifications of an NDP win in BC, Wild Rose in Alberta, the PQ in Quebec, and the Liberals in Ontario - which makes it just about impossible for Harper to govern to everyone's satisfaction.

Hurtin Albertan

At least it looks like more people will be voting than last time, when we set a new all time low voter turnout.

And we also managed to get to thread #4 on the topic of an Alberta provincial election.  I'm curious as to how many threads the last Alberta election managed to generate here.

NorthReport

Yikes!

The day I have been dreading has arrived - there will be lots of pain, so let's get this over with as quickly as possible.

ilha formosa

Wilf Day wrote:

What are the odds on a PC wrong-winner government? Wildrose gets more votes, but they are hived in the rural seats, and the PC win enough narrow urban victories to get a wrong-winner majority?

Could make it superficially a little awkward for electoral reformers. But not really, as long as Wildrose doesn't have over 50% of the votes: a democratic voting system would result in a non-Wildrose majority in the legislature. A PC-Liberal Coalition government, perhaps? Raj Sherman would get his old job back?

Intriguing possibilities. A "wrong-winner" PC-Lib coalition would be mathematically possible too. What would the L-Governor do in such a situation?

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

I though it looked like the Liberals would be wiped out tooday. CBC Newsworld had someone discussing the possibility of the PCs working with the NDP - as strange as that sounds!!!

Last night I heard someone - again on CBC - asking Liberal and NDP voters to vote PC to stop the Wild Rose. Sounds like desperation.

Howard

Boom Boom wrote:

I though it looked like the Liberals would be wiped out tooday. CBC Newsworld had someone discussing the possibility of the PCs working with the NDP - as strange as that sounds!!!

Last night I heard someone - again on CBC - asking Liberal and NDP voters to vote PC to stop the Wild Rose. Sounds like desperation.

None of this will be necessary. The WRA are going to win a large majority tonight. Hopefully the NDP will pick up some seats and be an effective thorn in their side. Whatever is left of the PCs will wither before the next election. The Alberta Liberals may be shut out. If they are, their fortunes will depend partially on what happens at the national level and partially whether the NDP makes a solid investment in Calgary and environs or not. I predict the Liberals will win 1-2 seats. The Alberta Party is done or it may become the new Liberal Party. They will win 0 seats. Here goes...

Aristotleded24

Howard wrote:
Boom Boom wrote:
I though it looked like the Liberals would be wiped out tooday. CBC Newsworld had someone discussing the possibility of the PCs working with the NDP - as strange as that sounds!!!

Last night I heard someone - again on CBC - asking Liberal and NDP voters to vote PC to stop the Wild Rose. Sounds like desperation.

None of this will be necessary. The WRA are going to win a large majority tonight. Hopefully the NDP will pick up some seats and be an effective thorn in their side. Whatever is left of the PCs will wither before the next election. The Alberta Liberals may be shut out. If they are, their fortunes will depend partially on what happens at the national level and partially whether the NDP makes a solid investment in Calgary and environs or not. I predict the Liberals will win 1-2 seats. The Alberta Party is done or it may become the new Liberal Party. They will win 0 seats. Here goes...

It could very well be that the only way for the NDP in Alberta to grow is for the Wildrose to decimate all other opposition until only the NDP is left standing, and thus wins the first right of response to the government by default. Kind of how the NDP took off in Newfoundland, federally in the 1980s, and even provincially in Alberta in the 1980s. (Remember Ray Martin went from 2 seats to 16 in 1986.)

M. Spector M. Spector's picture

Boom Boom wrote:

Last night I heard someone - again on CBC - asking Liberal and NDP voters to vote PC to stop the Wild Rose. Sounds like desperation.

No, it sounds just like babble.

It sounds just like all the babblers who insist that social democrats in the United States have to vote for Obama to stop Romney. And it's the same old refrain, whether the incumbent president is a Republican or a Democrat.

Howard

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Howard wrote:
Boom Boom wrote:
I though it looked like the Liberals would be wiped out tooday. CBC Newsworld had someone discussing the possibility of the PCs working with the NDP - as strange as that sounds!!!

Last night I heard someone - again on CBC - asking Liberal and NDP voters to vote PC to stop the Wild Rose. Sounds like desperation.

None of this will be necessary. The WRA are going to win a large majority tonight. Hopefully the NDP will pick up some seats and be an effective thorn in their side. Whatever is left of the PCs will wither before the next election. The Alberta Liberals may be shut out. If they are, their fortunes will depend partially on what happens at the national level and partially whether the NDP makes a solid investment in Calgary and environs or not. I predict the Liberals will win 1-2 seats. The Alberta Party is done or it may become the new Liberal Party. They will win 0 seats. Here goes...

It could very well be that the only way for the NDP in Alberta to grow is for the Wildrose to decimate all other opposition until only the NDP is left standing, and thus wins the first right of response to the government by default. Kind of how the NDP took off in Newfoundland, federally in the 1980s, and even provincially in Alberta in the 1980s. (Remember Ray Martin went from 2 seats to 16 in 1986.)

That 1980s advantage was not held. One reason was that the PCs decimated the NDP in advertising expenditures in the next election but there were many other reasons as well. Decore came a lot closer to scaring the PCs out of office, although he had a hard time setting up the differences between himself and the PC party Laughing

Aristotleded24

Howard wrote:
Aristotleded24 wrote:
Howard wrote:
Boom Boom wrote:
I though it looked like the Liberals would be wiped out tooday. CBC Newsworld had someone discussing the possibility of the PCs working with the NDP - as strange as that sounds!!!

Last night I heard someone - again on CBC - asking Liberal and NDP voters to vote PC to stop the Wild Rose. Sounds like desperation.

None of this will be necessary. The WRA are going to win a large majority tonight. Hopefully the NDP will pick up some seats and be an effective thorn in their side. Whatever is left of the PCs will wither before the next election. The Alberta Liberals may be shut out. If they are, their fortunes will depend partially on what happens at the national level and partially whether the NDP makes a solid investment in Calgary and environs or not. I predict the Liberals will win 1-2 seats. The Alberta Party is done or it may become the new Liberal Party. They will win 0 seats. Here goes...

It could very well be that the only way for the NDP in Alberta to grow is for the Wildrose to decimate all other opposition until only the NDP is left standing, and thus wins the first right of response to the government by default. Kind of how the NDP took off in Newfoundland, federally in the 1980s, and even provincially in Alberta in the 1980s. (Remember Ray Martin went from 2 seats to 16 in 1986.)

That 1980s advantage was not held. One reason was that the PCs decimated the NDP in advertising expenditures in the next election but there were many other reasons as well. Decore came a lot closer to scaring the PCs out of office, although he had a hard time setting up the differences between himself and the PC party Laughing

That also happened in the context of a Liberal surge nationally which took out the NDP. In the 1993 federal election, the Liberals won 4 seats in Edmonton. As the NDP establishes itself, especially since the Liberals do not appear to be coming back any time soon, I think the NDP could conceivably do well here.

ghoris

I think that second thoughts might produce some last minute slippage in the Wildrose vote, and the PCs will manage to squeeze the Liberal vote somehwat. I expect there will be a virtual tie in the popular vote, however due to the legislature being somewhat titled in favour of rural areas, Wildrose will win a slim majority by sweeping virtually every seat outside Edmonton and Calgary.

I expect results something like:

Wildrose 45

PC  36

NDP  4

Lib   2

I hope I am wrong...

kropotkin1951

I predict a low turnout than even last time.  In the 2008 election the turn out was 40.6% and the 2004 it was 44.7%.

The majority opinion about parliamentary politics in Alberta seems to be, "who the fuck cares they're all the same."

Who thinks they can go below a third of the eligible voters?

http://www.elections.ab.ca/public%20website/927.htm

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Brad Lavigne on P&P tonight said the NDP will likely hold the balance of power in a minority. I wonder if he's reading babble? Laughing

M. Spector M. Spector's picture

So what? Andrea Horwath holds the balance of power in Ontario. It just means that the NDP supports the vicious neoliberal agenda of the government in order to prevent another election.

The balance of power means nothing unless you're prepared to use it. If you're afraid of forcing an election, you might as well be dealing with a majority government.

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Have to agree with you there, MS.

bekayne

kropotkin1951 wrote:

I predict a low turnout than even last time.  In the 2008 election the turn out was 40.6% and the 2004 it was 44.7%.

The majority opinion about parliamentary politics in Alberta seems to be, "who the fuck cares they're all the same."

Who thinks they can go below a third of the eligible voters?

http://www.elections.ab.ca/public%20website/927.htm

I think it will be at least 45%

Very Far Away

ghoris wrote:

I think that second thoughts might produce some last minute slippage in the Wildrose vote, and the PCs will manage to squeeze the Liberal vote somehwat. I expect there will be a virtual tie in the popular vote, however due to the legislature being somewhat titled in favour of rural areas, Wildrose will win a slim majority by sweeping virtually every seat outside Edmonton and Calgary.

I expect results something like:

Wildrose 45

PC  36

NDP  4

Lib   2

I hope I am wrong...

 

I hope seat distribution would be like this:

WildRose 41

PC 41

NDP 5

Lib 0

 

jerrym

NDP leading in 4 ridings - the minimum for party status in legislature. 

Howard

I'm willing to call Edmonton Strathcona for the NDP, Rachel Notley re-elected.

janfromthebruce

it sure is going slow jerrym - one person was elected for the PC so far. sign

janfromthebruce

I'm watching the G & M site and for all the hype for the wild rose party, it sure isn't looking good for them. At this point, they are only leading in 20 ridings where the PCs are leading in 45 - hmm.

Howard

A vote split is generating a nail-biting result in Lethbridge West. I'm currently read NDP leading with 669 to PC 668.

Howard

janfromthebruce wrote:

I'm watching the G & M site and for all the hype for the wild rose party, it sure isn't looking good for them. At this point, they are only leading in 20 ridings where the PCs are leading in 45 - hmm.

Yes. This is good and a surprise given the polls. WRA leads seem to be slim in many ridings. While there are very few results in so far, this suggests the PCs could live to govern another day. Shades of Decore.

Howard

Howard wrote:

A vote split is generating a nail-biting result in Lethbridge West. I'm currently read NDP leading with 669 to PC 668.

Now NDP 1058 PC 995 (from CBC website)

janfromthebruce

we won a seat but it's not saying where on the globe site????

janfromthebruce

Rachel won - Howard you are right on! yeah

Howard

Howard wrote:

Howard wrote:

A vote split is generating a nail-biting result in Lethbridge West. I'm currently read NDP leading with 669 to PC 668.

Now NDP 1058 PC 995 (from CBC website)

Now PC 1407 NDP 1319

Aristotleded24

Howard wrote:

Howard wrote:

A vote split is generating a nail-biting result in Lethbridge West. I'm currently read NDP leading with 669 to PC 668.

Now NDP 1058 PC 995 (from CBC website)

GO SHANNON GO!!!!!!

janfromthebruce

Howard, do you have the link to where you are getting the exact numbers?

Howard

I should have said this earlier, but I will now project a PC majority. The WRA are just way too low (ten points behind) in the early count.

janfromthebruce

well with all the hype for wild rose the bloom sure came off and is wilting fast Kiss

Howard

janfromthebruce wrote:

Howard, do you have the link to where you are getting the exact numbers?

Elections Alberta (poor gui, but it loads quickly)

CBC website (you can watch the results live)

CBC live is reporting that some outlets have already called a PC majority

Howard

Howard wrote:

Howard wrote:

Howard wrote:

A vote split is generating a nail-biting result in Lethbridge West. I'm currently read NDP leading with 669 to PC 668.

Now NDP 1058 PC 995 (from CBC website)

Now PC 1407 NDP 1319

Now PC 1,579 NDP 1,472

Threads

I think Shannon Phillips might be done this time around.  She's now down over 200 votes.

Doug

Looks like Wildrose tea partied itself right out of government. Good work!

Howard

It looks like Brian Mason will be re-elected in Edmonton-Highlands-Northwood. It is still close enough for him to lose but I wouldn't count on it.

The NDP is polling a clear second at Edmonton with 21% currently. The PCs are riding high.

Hurtin Albertan

Well, I did predict this.  Oh god 4 more years of PC government.....maybe sometime in my life I will see them lose an election.  Hopefully sometime in my life I will see them lose an election.

jerrym

With the NDP and Liberals polling 7%, it looks like a lot of people voted strategically for the PCs to stop Wildrose as the NDP and Libs were polling from 10 to 13%.

While this is diaappointing, it does mean there were probably significantly more people considering voting NDP under other circumstances. Hopefully we can build on that in the future. Unfortunately there will be no minority government so we could possibly push proportional voting.

ctrl190

Globe calls majority for PCs.

Howard

Threads wrote:

I think Shannon Phillips might be done this time around.  She's now down over 200 votes.

As you mention, the PC lead is growing

PC 1943 NDP 1678

The NDP results are about in line with what the party received federally in 2011 (down two points). If the vote broke down exactly as in the federal election then the NDP could get close to 33% but to win the PCs have to come down from their current 36%.

The most likely outcome is that Phillips falls a few percentage points short. These last polls have been really poor for her. CBC now projects a PC majority government.

Howard

Howard wrote:

It looks like Brian Mason will be re-elected in Edmonton-Highlands-Northwood. It is still close enough for him to lose but I wouldn't count on it.

The NDP is polling a clear second at Edmonton with 21% currently. The PCs are riding high.

I confidently project Brian Mason re-elected. Former MLA David Eggen is holding on to a lead in Edmonton-Calder: NDP 1388 PC 1253

jerrym

Looks like I spoke too soon. NDP vote up to 10.2% and Libs to 8.9%. I still think there was some strategic voting as well as some people turning away from Wildrose because of homophobic, racist, anti-abortion, and climate change deniers (including Smith).

Howard

It's not looking good in Lethbridge West: PC 2096 NDP 1754.

Still half of polls remaining but if the NDP can't break 33%, they need the WRA to be higher than 27% to take this.

Howard

Howard wrote:

It's not looking good in Lethbridge West: PC 2096 NDP 1754.

Still half of polls remaining but if the NDP can't break 33%, they need the WRA to be higher than 27% to take this.

Sadly, I am going to project a PC win. Current standings PC 2214, NDP 1812

Howard

Howard wrote:

Howard wrote:

It's not looking good in Lethbridge West: PC 2096 NDP 1754.

Still half of polls remaining but if the NDP can't break 33%, they need the WRA to be higher than 27% to take this.

Sadly, I am going to project a PC win. Current standings PC 2214, NDP 1812

All eyes on Edmonton. NDP leading in 2 + elected in 2 = 4

Howard

NDP with leads holding in Edmonton Calder (former MLA David Eggen) and Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview (former NDP riding, Deron Bilous on ballot)

bekayne

Danielle Smith has had a close race in her riding all night

Howard

NDP chasing the PCs in a wild vote split in Edmonton-Gold Bar (former NDP riding); our own Lou Arab managing the campaign

PC 2061 (32.12%) NDP 1742 (27.15%)

janfromthebruce

I'm sure watching - sure hope they get elected. The lib leader is running 2nd in his riding.

Pages

Topic locked