Alberta Election - Thread #4

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bekayne

Here's a shock: Liberals currently have more seats in Calgary than Wildrose

Edit: And now it's swung back again, 3-way race in Calgary McCall

Howard

Howard wrote:

NDP chasing the PCs in a wild vote split in Edmonton-Gold Bar (former NDP riding); our own Lou Arab managing the campaign

PC 2061 (32.12%) NDP 1742 (27.15%)

NDP running second in Edmonton Manning (not a great area for the party) with 25.31% to 38.52% for the PCs.

Does Edmonton Manning overlap with Edmonton East?

Who thinks we need a new thread? This thread takes to long to load.

jerrym

Unfortunately, Ray Martin (1374) is losing to Heather Klimchuk (1930). However, this means he might be available to run federally in 2015.

jerrym

Unfortunately, Ray Martin (1374) is losing to Heather Klimchuk (1930). However, this means he might be available to run federally in 2015.

bekayne

Wildrose leads in 3 ridings in Calgary, but all 3 leads are razor thin

Howard

Liberals and NDP are battling for third place in the lege. The Liberal fate rests on Calgary. Were the NDP to take Calgary off the table for the Libs, this would be a one seat night for the Liberals with the Liberals winning the very NDP friendly riding of Edmonton Centre. Not taking the Libs outta the game in Calgary ridings = missed opportunity for the NDP.

janfromthebruce

you know when you look at the numbers, eg. 1374 to 1930, and I go where are those other voters? So many people who aren't voting. sign

Howard

The WRA may win 20 seats. That is probably enough to see them into the next election. If they can keep the same "brain trust" together and maybe build on the current results, we may even see another competitive election four years from now.

Ted Morton has lost re-election!

Aristotleded24

Howard wrote:
Liberals and NDP are battling for third place in the lege. The Liberal fate rests on Calgary. Were the NDP to take Calgary off the table for the Libs, this would be a one seat night for the Liberals with the Liberals winning the very NDP friendly riding of Edmonton Centre. Not taking the Libs outta the game in Calgary ridings = missed opportunity for the NDP.

It's tough, but either way, the NDP and Liberals are on equal footing, which gives a huge opportunity for the NDP.

And some will want to say that Mason should have done better, but I remind you that only 2 leaders ever led the NDP beyond 2 seats. One of those leaders is Brain Mason.

Howard

Speaking of vote-splitting Wink

Edmonton Gold-Bar: PC 32.32% NDP 27.87% Lib 19.59% Alberta Party 1.84% Evergreen Party 1.21%

Hmm...the non-PC/WRA vote adds up to >50%

Howard

Brian Mason giving his speech.

adma

Doug wrote:

Looks like Wildrose tea partied itself right out of government. Good work!

 

The wheels fell off the Wildrose bus?

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

Heard on CBC tonight (earlier) that the WRA wants to take Alberta out of both Equalization and the Canada Pension Plan.

Howard

He predicts David Eggen and Deron Bilous will win their seats. "We're going to need a slightly bigger phone booth."

These results are almost a carbon copy of 2004. The NDP has the same % of the vote and seats. This time WRA provided the splits to make it happen and not the Alberta Libs.

janfromthebruce

Wild rose wanted to build a firewall around them - could they keep all their pollution too or did they see that like "stranded debt"?

janfromthebruce

in those 2 remaining NDP leading ridings, the numbers widened alot just now!

Howard

Howard wrote:

He predicts David Eggen and Deron Bilous will win their seats. "We're going to need a slightly bigger phone booth."

These results are almost a carbon copy of 2004. The NDP has the same % of the vote and seats. This time WRA provided the splits to make it happen and not the Alberta Libs.

Also, for those that think "uniting the left" would push the PCs from power, feast your eyes on the less than 20% the NDP + Libs received.

Threads

Phillips appears to have started narrowing Weadick's lead.  Only time will tell if she started early enough to erase it.

Howard

Danielle Smith speaking. I'm checking out. ETA: Don't own a big enough vomit bag to watch it Wink

Aristotleded24

Howard wrote:
Howard wrote:
He predicts David Eggen and Deron Bilous will win their seats. "We're going to need a slightly bigger phone booth."

These results are almost a carbon copy of 2004. The NDP has the same % of the vote and seats. This time WRA provided the splits to make it happen and not the Alberta Libs.

Also, for those that think "uniting the left" would push the PCs from power, feast your eyes on the less than 20% the NDP + Libs received.

I think the big thing is that people wanted change but reluctantly stuck with the devil they know. Indeed, the PC statements about not working with Wildrose in a minority and attempting to poach Liberal and NDP votes may speak about how left-leaning Albertans really are. I think the Wildrose benefitted primarily from the "time for change" sentiment simply because they had the most resources to get their message out. Had the other oppositon parties had as many opportunities, who knows?

ghoris

The Libs could yet leapfrog the NDP for third place. They have 3 MLAs elected vs. 2 for the NDP. The NDP leads in Edmonton-Calder and Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview are extremely small. There are no other possibilities for the NDP, but the Liberals are currently leading in Edmonton-Meadowlark (Sherman's riding) and in a tight 3-way race in Calgary-McCall (one of their incumbent seats) which could yet break their way. If they win both, they will finish with 5 seats to the NDP's maximum 4.

flight from kamakura

i'm actually pretty satisfied with the results, given that my hoped-for ndp holding the balance of power with 10 seats was a pipe dream.  very very glad that most albertans don't want to dismantle their province and make themselves the subject of even more ridicule and scorn across canada.  the problem though is that the pcs are in there with another big majority... mmm...

Policywonk

The Liberal could still lose Raj Sherman's seat and not be an official party. I guess the Wild Rose was hurt more than people thought by the loose cannons amongst their candidates and it didn't show up in the latest polls. Did those wingnuts get elected?

bekayne

Policywonk wrote:

The Liberal could still lose Raj Sherman's seat and not be an official party. I guess the Wild Rose was hurt more than people thought by the loose cannons amongst their candidates and it didn't show up in the latest polls. Did those wingnuts get elected?

No

bekayne

PC's could go as high as 68 seats

flight from kamakura

i can't decide whether i want the liberals to get official status or not.  i think i do, get them hammering the government from the left.  but then i don't, because the ndp should take liberals out everywhere.

ghoris

Speaking of wingnuts, Link Byfield (yes, one of those Byfields) is still in a tight race for Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock.

Of the four Wildrose floor-crossers, the only one to be re-elected so far is Anderson in Airdrie. Boutilier and Hinman went down to defeat. Heather Forsyth is trailing by just 30 votes.

ilha formosa

adma wrote:

The wheels fell off the Wildrose bus?

Laughing 

Fidel

I am actually proud to be associated with Albertans in general after this result. They may be naive conservatives, but last night they said to right wing extremists and the rest of Canada,

We, the people of Alberta, are not stupid!

Three cheers for Albertans! There is a ray of hope in Wild Rose Country.

bekayne

Raj Sherman ahead by 118 votes after all polls reporting. Just declared elected

Brachina

Fidel wrote:

I am actually proud to be associated with Albertans in general after this result. They may be naive conservatives, but last night they said to right wing extremists and the rest of Canada,

We, the people of Alberta, are not COMPLETELY stupid!

Three cheers for Albertans! There is a ray of hope in Wild Rose Country.

I'm sorry but a Tory government and a tory official opposition is absolutely stunned, only in Alberta does a victory for the Tories come off as a big win for progressives. Its like giving Albertans a gold star because they only ate thier crayons and not there glue. Don't get me wrong, Alison seems okay for an Alberta Tory, but still she is still in the same party as Harper.

ilha formosa

 

Howard wrote:

Also, for those that think "uniting the left" would push the PCs from power, feast your eyes on the less than 20% the NDP + Libs received.

How much of that is due to strategic voting, rather than first preference voting? Add to that the "What's the use" absentee votes engendered by the lack of proportional representation.

What's the voter turnout? How much of the result can be attributed to the anti-WR vote showing up and going to the party most likely to defeat the WR (ie, in most cases the PCs)?

WR still finished a strong second, and it doesn't look like they and their funding sources will go away after today. If the PCs falter this term, WR will be there, more experienced, with their loose cannons tied down.

My wish is for a one-term coalition of the left and center in Alberta that would implement PR. Seems even more remote at this point with the center now dominated by the Redford PCs. If the PCs falter, where would the anti-WR vote consolidate next election? It would be diluted between Lib and NDP, and maybe the Alberta Party.

ilha formosa

Brachina wrote:

only in Alberta does a victory for the Tories come off as a big win for progressives. Its like giving Albertans a gold star because they only ate thier crayons and not there glue.

Laughing

I wonder who Harper voted for: crayons only, or crayons and glue?

jerrym

Most of Harper's caucus supported Wildrose. No surprise.

Policywonk

ghoris wrote:

Speaking of wingnuts, Link Byfield (yes, one of those Byfields) is still in a tight race for Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock.

Of the four Wildrose floor-crossers, the only one to be re-elected so far is Anderson in Airdrie. Boutilier and Hinman went down to defeat. Heather Forsyth is trailing by just 30 votes.

Byfield eventually lost.

Fidel

Brachina wrote:

Fidel wrote:

I am actually proud to be associated with Albertans in general after this result. They may be naive conservatives, but last night they said to right wing extremists and the rest of Canada,

We, the people of Alberta, are not COMPLETELY stupid!

Three cheers for Albertans! There is a ray of hope in Wild Rose Country.

I'm sorry but a Tory government and a tory official opposition is absolutely stunned, only in Alberta does a victory for the Tories come off as a big win for progressives. Its like giving Albertans a gold star because they only ate thier crayons and not there glue. Don't get me wrong, Alison seems okay for an Alberta Tory, but still she is still in the same party as Harper.

 

As I said before they are only naive in Alberta. I can think of one province next door to Alberta where experiments in private health care services are more extensive than some parts of conservative Alberta. 

There were actual protests in Alberta when the very corrupt Ralph Klein first proposed privatizing clinics and hospitals. But there Albertans were and protesting and singing O Canada and standing up for public health care at a time when truly clueless Canadians stood idly by while so called pragmatic centrist governments(cunning liars as opposed to straight-up liars) allowed it to happen in their provinces.

They are not stupid in Alberta just surrounded on all sides by a right wing propaganda machine. And they've just said no effing way to a bunch of ultra right wing wackos. Good for them. I think Albertans deserve a loud round of applause today.

Redford now has to accommodate left-of-centre voters

knownothing knownothing's picture

She is squeezing out the NDP. We should have had 15% at least. PCs have to go down and Wild Rose win next election. That will open the door for an NDP opposition.

nicky

Every poll was wrong, except in that some showed late momentum to the PCs I am assuming there was a masiive switch over the weekend.

The geographical breakdown is very similar to the 1971 election which was Lougheed's first win. The Cs dominated the big cities and the WR seats are concentrated in the rural south, the last redoubt of Social Credit.

Wilf Day

If every vote counted equally, PC voters would have elected 40 of the 87 MLAs, Wildrose 30. Liberal voters would have elected eight MLAs, NDP voters eight, and Alberta Party voters one. A PC-Liberal Coalition Government?

New Democrat voters would have elected a regional MLA from Northern Alberta. Assuming that is the best runner-up: Mandy Melnyk from Redwater. In Central Alberta, a regional MLA: Bruce Hinkley from Wetaskiwin. In Calgary, a regional MLA: Marc Power. In southern Alberta, a regional MLA: Shannon Phillips from Lethbridge.
Liberal voters would have elected MLAs across Alberta, not just in Calgary and Edmonton. In Central Alberta, a regional MLA: Michael Dawe of Red Deer. In the 13 ridings of Southern Alberta, a regional MLA: Rob Miyashiro of Lethbridge. In the 23 Edmonton ridings, another MLA: Mo Elsalhy.

Alberta Party voters in Edmonton would have elected one of its founders, Michael Walters.

All MLAs would have faced the voters, and all votes would have counted. Democracy, eh?

Voters for all parties would be represented in all regions, except where they had too few voters to elect even one regional MLA: Liberal Party voters in Northern Alberta, and Alberta Party voters in most of Alberta.

http://wilfday.blogspot.ca/2012/04/if-every-vote-counted-what-would.html

MegB

CFL

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