BC Election 2013 Projection

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Mean Moe
BC Election 2013 Projection
NorthReport

If I understand Roundabout correctly they are saying that they have not taken the events of the past week into consideration with their current projections, that they don't think the BC Liberals can do anything to save the sinking ship,and  even changing their Leader is not going to cut it, and that we should expect to see an increase in support for the Cons in the next series of polls.

Roundabout needs to proofread as I think they left a word out of their first sentence. There is at least one mistake later on as well

 

Quote:
Roundabout does believe the BC Liberals can comeback from them, even with anew leader.

Mean Moe

Let them know the grammar police are on patrol. ;)

NorthReport

Their polling is probably a little dated by now. Wink

Mean Moe

Polling is always dated.

NorthReport

- dated Feb 25/13 and before the roof caved in on Christy.

 

http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/british-columbia.html

NorthReport

UBC Elections Prediction Market for 2013 BC Election

 

Popular Vote

Date / NDP / Libs / Cons / Grns / Oth /

2009 / 42.2% / 45.8% / 2.1% / 8.2% / 1.7%

2013 / 45.4% / 28.1% / 12.1% / 11.1% / 3.3%

 

Seats

Date / NDP / LIbs / Cons / Grns / Oth / Total

2009 / 35 / 49 /0 / 0 / 1 / 85

2013 / 55 / 23 / 3 / 1 / 3 / 85

 

http://predictionmarkets.ca/BC13.php

NorthReport

Current Prediction of Majority Government

NDP - 92.2%

Oths - 4.8%

Libs - 3%

 

 

 

http://predictionmarkets.ca/BC13.php

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

I'm a little puzzled by why the seat projection for the BC Cons is listed as having a high projection of 1 seat in 1 column but 7 seats in the colum to that column's right.  Is that just a typo?

NorthReport

I don't think so.

 

The numbers within the gray boxes reflect the forecasts for the May 14, 2013 election, while the numbers within the white box reflects the likely outcomes of an election held as of the last day of polling.

A detailed explanation of the vote and seat projection models and how the probability forecasts are calculated can be here.

 

http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/british-columbia.html

NorthReport
David Young

23 seats for the Liberals?

Wouldn't that be a miracle!

 

janfromthebruce

David Young wrote:

23 seats for the Liberals?

Wouldn't that be a miracle!

 

yes, a hail Mary pass to keep the free enterprise party alive!

NorthReport

I think this election, although at the moment looks quite promising, is still far from a shoo-in. The mainstream press are no friend of the NDP and the moment there is any kind of screwup leading up to the election the press will pounce. Just as Bob Rae and his cohorts feed the Canadian mainstream press on a daily press, Rae's brothers and sisters in the BC Liberals are doing the same thing in BC, to try and discredit their opponents. 

NorthReport

Election Prediction website run by a Liberal and seems to be woefully out of date, so it would appear to be basically a Liberal propaganda site.

BC Election Prediction Project

http://www.electionprediction.org/2013_bc/index.php

NorthReport

Not very current it seems:

 

http://www.electionalmanac.com/ea/british-columbia/

 

 

NorthReport

Waiting for the next polls, but look at the change in forecast in popular vote for the Cons in one day who are now only about 10% behind the Liberals:

 

UBC Elections Prediction Market for 2013 BC Election

 

Popular Vote

Date / NDP / Libs / Cons / Grns / Oth /

2009 / 42.2% / 45.8% / 2.1% / 8.2% / 1.7%

Mar 11 '13 / 43.3% / 26.8% / 16.3% / 10.6% / 2.9%

Mar 10 '13 / 45.4% / 28.1% / 12.1% / 11.1% / 3.3%

 

Seats

Date / NDP / LIbs / Cons / Grns / Oth / Total

2009 / 35 / 49 /0 / 0 / 1 / 85

Mar 11 '13 / 56 / 22 / 3 / 1 / 3 / 85

Mar 10 '13 / 55 / 23 / 3 / 1 / 3 / 85

 

http://predictionmarkets.ca/BC13.php

 

NorthReport

The Conservatives continue to close the gap with the Liberals which is now only 7.3%

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UBC Elections Prediction Market for 2013 BC Election

 

Popular Vote

Date / NDP / Libs / Cons / Grns / Oth /

2009 / 42.2% / 45.8% / 2.1% / 8.2% / 1.7%

Mar 12 '13/ 44.9% / 24.4% / 17.1% / 10.% / 2.9% (Libs lead over Cons now only 7.3%)

Mar 11 '13 / 43.3% / 26.8% / 16.3% / 10.6% / 2.9%  (Libs lead over Cons = 10.5%)

Mar 10 '13 / 45.4% / 28.1% / 12.1% / 11.1% / 3.3% (Libs lead over Cons = 16%)

 

Seats

Date / NDP / LIbs / Cons / Grns / Oth / Total

2009 / 35 / 49 /0 / 0 / 1 / 85

Mar 12 '13 / 58 /19 / 3 / 2 / 3 / 85

Mar 11 '13 / 56 / 22 / 3 / 1 / 3 / 85

Mar 10 '13 / 55 / 23 / 3 / 1 / 3 / 85

 

Majority Government

Date / NDP / Libs / Oth

Mar 12 '13 / 91.5% / 3% / 5.4%

 

http://predictionmarkets.ca/BC13.php

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NorthReport

Interesting' how strong the BC Cons are showing in the UBC Election Predictor Popular vote now, and it is also showing them winning 4 seats in the seat forecast.

 

http://predictionmarkets.ca/BC13.php

NorthReport

UBC Elections Prediction Market for 2013 BC Election

 

Popular Vote

Date / NDP / Libs / Cons / Grns / Oth /

2009 / 42.2% / 45.8% / 2.1% / 8.2% / 1.7%

Mar 15 '13 / 42.7% / 29.9% / 14% / 10.6% / 2.9%

Mar 12 '13/ 44.9% / 24.4% / 17.1% / 10.% / 2.9% 

Mar 11 '13 / 43.3% / 26.8% / 16.3% / 10.6% / 2.9%  (Libs lead over Cons = 10.5%)

Mar 10 '13 / 45.4% / 28.1% / 12.1% / 11.1% / 3.3% (Libs lead over Cons = 16%)

 

Seats

Date / NDP / LIbs / Cons / Grns / Oth / Total

2009 / 35 / 49 /0 / 0 / 1 / 85

Mar 15 '13 / 54 /22 / 4 / 2 / 3

Mar 12 '13 / 58 /19 / 3 / 2 / 3 / 85

Mar 11 '13 / 56 / 22 / 3 / 1 / 3 / 85

Mar 10 '13 / 55 / 23 / 3 / 1 / 3 / 85

 

Majority Government

Date / NDP / Libs / Oth

Mar 15 '13 / 86.8% / 6.3% / 6.9%

Mar 12 '13 / 91.5% / 3% / 5.4%

 

http://predictionmarkets.ca/BC13.php

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NorthReport

I'm wondering if this UBC election predictor is similiar to that gambler's website which showed a very close race in the USA until around 4 PM on the actual voting day. In other words it was a scam by the rich to try and suggest the right-wing party had a lot more strength than it actually had, in an effort to try and manipulate voters. 

Vortigern

Not sure if it's exactly a scam, though I would guess the investors in the UBC-ESM aren't likely to be on the left. With two months to go before the election, predictions of the Cons and Greens winning seats could just reflect speculation on the likelihood of their vote picking up in the interim. Cynically/realistically, it wouldn't take all that much money to artificially inflate their chances.

 

I can't quite imagine which four seats the conservatives are supposed to win, though.

janfromthebruce

It evokes thoughts on "push polling".

NorthReport

NDP - 57 seats

Libs - 18 seats

Cons - 4 seats

Ind - 4 seats

Grns - 2 seats

Total - 85 seats

 

 

http://predictionmarkets.ca/BC13.php

KenS

Beyond the NDP winning- there is a huge volatility behind what drives the number of seats in the end.

Someone is going to be right.

A bunch of other people will have egg on the face- as in WAY off.

scott16

Does anyone know if Hill & Knowlton will have an election predictor for BC 2013? I know they had one for Alberta last year.

Its an interesting website.

Roystonbones

Vortigern wrote:

I can't quite imagine which four seats the conservatives are supposed to win, though.

 

Kelowna?

NorthReport

thetyee.ca is going to be having individual riding projections in their BC election map & guide section which may well be the most accurate of all.

Vortigern

Roystonbones wrote:

Vortigern wrote:

I can't quite imagine which four seats the conservatives are supposed to win, though.

 

Kelowna?

 

Well, perhaps, but since I'm from that area, I'd hope not! Fortunately, there are only three seats in Kelowna....

NorthReport

Cons have risen to 5 seats in the latest UBC election predictor stats.

 

UBC Elections Prediction Market for 2013 BC Election

Popular Vote

Date / NDP / Libs / Cons / Grns / Oth /

2009 / 42.2% / 45.8% / 2.1% / 8.2% / 1.7%

Mar 19 '13 / 38.7% / 32.8% / 15.5% / 10.3% / 2.7%

Mar 18 '13 / 42.7% / 31.9% / 14% / 9.2% / 2.2%

Mar 15 '13 / 42.7% / 29.9% / 14% / 10.6% / 2.9%

Mar 12 '13/ 44.9% / 24.4% / 17.1% / 10.% / 2.9% 

Mar 11 '13 / 43.3% / 26.8% / 16.3% / 10.6% / 2.9% 

Mar 10 '13 / 45.4% / 28.1% / 12.1% / 11.1% / 3.3%

 

Seats

Date / NDP / LIbs / Cons / Grns / Oth / Total

2009 / 35 / 49 /0 / 0 / 1 / 85

Mar 18 '13 / 56 / 20 / 5 / 1 / 3 / 85 

Mar 15 '13 / 54 /22 / 4 / 2 / 3 / 85

Mar 12 '13 / 58 /19 / 3 / 2 / 3 / 85

Mar 11 '13 / 56 / 22 / 3 / 1 / 3 / 85

Mar 10 '13 / 55 / 23 / 3 / 1 / 3 / 85

 

Majority Government

Date / NDP / Libs / Oth

Mar 19 '13 / 91.1% / 3.8%

Mar 18 '13 / 87.9% / 5.1% / 7%

Mar 15 '13 / 86.8% / 6.3% / 6.9%

Mar 12 '13 / 91.5% / 3% / 5.4%

 

http://predictionmarkets.ca/BC13.php

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NorthReport

NDP - 61 seats

Libs - 19 seats

Ind - 2 seats

Grns - 1 seat

 

http://bciconcoclast.blogspot.ca/p/my-prediction-of-2013-election.html

NorthReport

March 17, 2013

 

NDP - 61 seats

Libs - 19 seats

Ind - 4 seats

Grns - 1 seat

Total - 85 seats

 

http://bciconcoclast.blogspot.ca/p/my-prediction-of-2013-election.html

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

I predict the Liberals will get less than 19 seats and the BC Cons are going to win a few seats. The Greens will get the goose egg.

NorthReport

I tend to agree with you.

My forecast

NDP - 67 seats

Libs - 11 seats

Cons - 5 seats

Ind - 2 seats

Grn - 0 seats

Total - 85 seats

NorthReport

Angus Reid Poll – NDP 48, BCL 28, GRN 11, CON 11

NDP - 76 seats

Libs - 8 seats

Ind - 1 seat

Total - 85 seats

 

http://bc2013.com/2013/03/21/angus-reid-poll-ndp-48-bcl-28-grn-11-con-11/

NorthReport

 

Conservatives appear to be picking up strength, here at least with the gamblers, and have risen from 3 seats on March 10th, to 6 seats on March 21st, in the latest UBC election predictor stats. This may prove to be significant, and the death knell for the BC Liberals.

 

UBC Elections Prediction Market for 2013 BC Election

Popular Vote

Date / NDP / Libs / Cons / Grns / Oth /

2009 / 42.2% / 45.8% / 2.1% / 8.2% / 1.7%

Mar 22 '13 / 44.6% / 30.6% / 15.4% / 7.6% / 1.8%

Mar 21 '13 / 41.8% / 31.8% / 15.5% / 8.5% / 2.4%

Mar 19 '13 / 38.7% / 32.8% / 15.5% / 10.3% / 2.7%

Mar 18 '13 / 42.7% / 31.9% / 14% / 9.2% / 2.2%

Mar 15 '13 / 42.7% / 29.9% / 14% / 10.6% / 2.9%

Mar 12 '13/ 44.9% / 24.4% / 17.1% / 10.% / 2.9% 

Mar 11 '13 / 43.3% / 26.8% / 16.3% / 10.6% / 2.9% 

Mar 10 '13 / 45.4% / 28.1% / 12.1% / 11.1% / 3.3%

 

Seats

Date / NDP / LIbs / Cons / Grns / Oth / Total

2009 / 35 / 49 /0 / 0 / 1 / 85

Mar 22 '13 / 54 / 21 / 6 / 2 / 2 / 85

Mar 21 '13 / 55 / 21 / 6 / 1 / 2 / 85

Mar 18 '13 / 56 / 20 / 5 / 1 / 3 / 85 

Mar 15 '13 / 54 /22 / 4 / 2 / 3 / 85

Mar 12 '13 / 58 /19 / 3 / 2 / 3 / 85

Mar 11 '13 / 56 / 22 / 3 / 1 / 3 / 85

Mar 10 '13 / 55 / 23 / 3 / 1 / 3 / 85

 

Majority Government

Date / NDP / Libs / Oth

Mar 21 '13 / 91.4% / 3.5% / 5.2%

Mar 19 '13 / 91.1% / 3.8%

Mar 18 '13 / 87.9% / 5.1% / 7%

Mar 15 '13 / 86.8% / 6.3% / 6.9%

Mar 12 '13 / 91.5% / 3% / 5.4%

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/elections/prediction-markets/

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