Let's start to prepare for another Rachel Notley-led NDP victory as UCP collapses

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NorthReport
Let's start to prepare for another Rachel Notley-led NDP victory as UCP collapses
NorthReport

Jason Kenney - another one of the many political leaders in Canada that needs to resign. 

Pondering

Looks promising to me. I don't see Alberta going Liberal federally anytime soon. It would be great if the federal NDP could make some inroads. Is that a possibility?

 

voice of the damned

I am sometimes called upon to teach the difference between "prepare" and "prepare for". Basically, "prepare" is to get something ready eg. "The chef prepared dinner in the kitchen".

Whereas "prepared for" is to get yourself ready for something that is in the process of being made eg. "The diners prepared for dinner by washing their hands and placing their napkins on their laps".

In the situation under discussion, I think New Democrats need to "prepare" an NDP government in Alberta, before they can even think about preparing for one. IOW, first make it happen.

jerrym

These polls lead to lots of questions, including even within their own data. 

Léger suggests the NDP would overwhelm the UCP by 49 per cent to 14 per cent in Alberta's capital. But while it shows the NDP leading in rural areas and Calgary, it's not by so much that there isn't plenty of potential for the governing party to turn things around in two years. So the last thing NDP supporters should do is start thinking and acting as if another orange wave in 2023 is inevitable.

Angus Reid concludes the UCP still leads outside Edmonton and Calgary in both the north and south.

Still, results like this do indicate New Democrats can expect to hang onto their orange fortress in the capital region, a solid base from which to mount a campaign, and it offers hope of a path to victory in '23.

But even if we believe the Léger poll's indicated split of 36 to 34 per cent in the NDP's favour in Calgary, that's close enough anything could happen in an actual election, especially one that isn't going to happen any time soon. It's also close enough for the Alberta Party, one supposes, to tilt the election one way or another or end up holding the balance of power.

Given the time to the next election, I wouldn't advise betting your garden plot in Strathcona, let alone your entire farm, on the predictive power of either of these polls. It's some of the other speculative possibilities that are more interesting just now.

For example, the Angus Reid survey says Albertans are profoundly unimpressed by the UCP's 2021 budget. It also indicates NDP supporters are much more likely to support a sales tax. But a strong majority of Albertans, about 60 per cent according to both polls, continues to oppose the idea of a sales tax.

In his February 25 budget speech, Finance Minister Travis Toews said "a third-party review of the efficiency and appropriateness of our revenue structure will be important in the future." At least one prominent commentator took that as a hint of a UCP sales tax to come.

So, could the NDP, despite the fact its supporters are supposedly more likely to support the idea, attack the UCP as being inclined to impose such a tax if the party gets a second mandate?

And what if the narrative continues to be widely accepted that Kenney himself is now the UCP's principal problem? Could the government caucus in the legislature decide they'll need to put him on a train for Ottawa sooner than later to save their owns skins?

It's happened before -- most recently seven years ago this Monday, when the Progressive Conservative caucus gave premier Alison Redford the "work plan" that led to her announcement four days later she was quitting.

Premier Kenney may have created the UCP in his own image, but former Wildrose leader Brian Jean obviously still casts covetous eyes on the party that he may feel, with justice, he was cheated out of leading. The RCMP may yet have something to say about that, too.

https://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/alberta-diary/2021/03/two-bad-polls-one...

NorthReport

Woo! Hoo!

With a solid NDP Government lead by Premier John Horgan in BC, and the increasing likelihood of another Rachel Notley-led NDP Government in Alberta, it appears that finally a major political shift is taking place in at least Western Canada

It appears that Western Canadians don't want those sleazy lying Liberals any more.

https://www.calgarysun.com/opinion/columnists/bell-kenney-sinks-in-poll-...

voice of the damned

NorthReport wrote:

With a solid NDP Government lead by Premier John Horgan in BC, and the increasing likelihood of another Rachel Notley-led NDP Government in Alberta, it appears that finally a major political shift is taking place in at least Western Canada

It appears that western Canadians don't want those sleazy lying Liberals any more.

The only province in western Canada where the contest is NDP vs. Liberal in any meaningful way is BC, and even there, the Liberals are not really Liberals in the way that the concept is generally understood elsewhere in Canada.

nicky

Recent polling also has the NDP ahead in Manitoba (provincillay).

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/manitoba-ndp-election-poll-1.597...

Saskatchewan continues to be the weakest western province for the NDP. Not long ago it was the strongest.

 

NorthReport

Looks like NDP Premier John Horgan may have some close and good company in future Premier meetings

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/alberta-ndp-majority-poll-1.5986052

NorthReport
kropotkin1951

NorthReport wrote:

Bye, bye Jason, and welcome back Rachel https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2021/04/16/How-Conservative-Resistance-Crumb...

Why are you cheering? Seems like a case of premature genuflection. If they follow the provincial election rules they have two more years of power to fuck things up even more. If they revert to the Canadian constitution they can hang on to power for three more years.

Ken Burch

NorthReport wrote:
Bye, bye Jason, and welcome back Rachel https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2021/04/16/How-Conservative-Resistance-Crumb...

Uh, North...it's a fairly common thing for an opposition party to be ahead of the governing party in the polls halfway through the mandate of that government, and then go on to lose when the actual election is called.  If you've somehow not noticed,  that has happened in your own province over and over again since 1952.

JKR

Time left until next Alberta set Election Day - PolitiClock

Countdown to: Wed May 31 2023 *

2 years; 1 month; 12 days

25 months; 12 days

110.5 weeks

773 days
17 hours
36 weeks 
40 seconds

 

 

 

 

NorthReport

Woo Hoo!

The clock is ticking!

NorthReport
kropotkin1951

JKR wrote:

Time left until next Alberta set Election Day - PolitiClock

Countdown to: Wed May 31 2023 *
2 years; 1 month; 12 days

25 months; 12 days

110.5 weeks

773 days
17 hours
36 weeks 
40 seconds

That is if they don't rescind that electoral law and get another year. Constitutionally all those four year terms are changeable. What is in the constitution is a government must call an election before 5 years have expired, so usually some time in its fourth year. BC had a four year set term election law and they went to the people early because frankly the US emulating four year terms are not really good for our system. I have always thought they were a right wing plot because it means the business class knows exactly when the election cycle is and can then spend unlimited money in negative ads prior to the election spending rules kicking in. The Howe Street Liberal electoral arm then got to riff of the ads during the campaign, when big business is restricted in spending. The BC NDP short circuited the Howe Street game plan by going to the polls early.

NorthReport

With a chance at being premier twice, Notley says Kenney is getting it all wrong

 

Don Braid  •  Calgary Herald

Mar 19, 2021  •  March 19, 2021  •  3 minute read  •  Alberta NDP Leader Rachel Notley, left, and MLA Shannon Phillips at the Alberta Legislature in Edmonton on Monday March 8, 2021.

Alberta NDP Leader Rachel Notley, left, and MLA Shannon Phillips at the Alberta Legislature in Edmonton on Monday March 8, 2021. PHOTO BY LARRY WONG/POSTMEDIA

 

https://calgaryherald.com/news/braid-with-a-chance-at-being-premier-twic...

NorthReport

No, no, please keep him there!

Explosive letter circulating within UCP calls for Kenney's resignation

'We, the undersigned members of the United Conservative Party, formally request your immediate resignation ...' says a copy of the letter

 

https://calgaryherald.com/news/braid-an-ominous-growl-from-the-grassroot...

NorthReport