The next British Columbia provincial election

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jerrym
The next British Columbia provincial election

The BC provincial election is scheduled to be held on October 16, 2021. The last two polls in BC done in mid to late June gave the NDP 17% and 18% leads, thanks to the view that Horgan has handled the Covid-19 pandemic well. However, a week in politics is an eternity and the BC Liberals will be trying to grab the roughly 10%-13% of the vote that currently says it favours the BC Conservatives, something they and the Socreds have historically succeeded in doing to a large extent. Below is the Ekos poll. Since February when Covid-19 first became an issue in the province, earlier polls had given the NDP leads of 5%, 6%, 18%, 8% and 9% (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_British_Columbia_general_election), reflecting the growing support that handling the virus well has helped give the NDP.

 The NDP has a healthy 17-point lead over the Liberals in British Columbia (46 to 29), with the Greens in a distant third at 13 points among decided voters. A further 12% support other parties. One-in-five voters (19%) remain undecided. The NDP currently runs the province in a minority government with support in confidence votes from the Green Party, while the “pro free-enterprise” Liberal Party has the most seats, but is in opposition.

The NDP is up six points from the 40% they won in the 2017 election. The Liberals, with their new leader Andrew Wilkinson is down 11 points (they also won 40% in 2017). The leaderless Green Party is down four points from 17% in 2017. The Greens will be electing a new leader in September. The 12% of decided voters who back “other parties” are likely backing the moribund BC Conservative Party, who only ran 10 candidates in the last election. Voters deciding to park their vote here could explain the 11 point drop for the Liberals in the highly polarized BC electorate.

The NDP leads in every region of the province except the Interior, where they are in a statistical tie with the Liberals, trailing them 37% to 35%. Of note, “other parties” is polling at 17% in the Interior, a traditionally conservative-leaning part of the province, further suggesting that respondents who selected this option likely back the provincial Conservative Party. The NDP has the largest lead in the Greater Victoria Area, where they have a 28 point edge (53-25) over the Liberals. The Greens, who won 2 seats in the Victoria area in 2017, are also polling well in the capital at 19%. While there is only a five-point gender gap for the NDP, which is polling at 44% among men and 49% among women, the gender gap is much stronger for the Liberals, which are polling at 35% among men and just 23% among women. The gender gap is the inverse for the Greens, which are polling at 9% among men and 17% among women.

While the NDP seems to have a decent lead over the Liberals, one cannot ignore the polarization of the BC electorate. Since the 2005 election, the two parties have always been within 5 points of each other in provincial elections. If most of the 12% of decided voters who say they’re voting ‘other’ do end up backing the Liberals, the race does become much closer, and that’s not even accounting for the 19% of the electorate that is undecided.

http://www.ekospolitics.com/index.php/2020/07/new-democrats-have-healthy...

 

 

jerrym

The other recent poll by Insights West discusses in more detail how success in dealing with Covid-19 has propelled Horgan's popularity to 68%, the highest of any political leader in Insight West's eight years of polling in BC, and the NDP's popularity to an 18% lead over the BC Liberals.

British Columbians are overwhelmingly supportive of the work Premier John Horgan is doing to address the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, according to a poll released on Tuesday.

According to the Insights West poll, 68 per cent of respondents approved of the work Horgan is doing, up 17 points from the last poll. Support for the B.C. NDP has risen to 47 per cent, an increase of 12 points.

“The government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic has apparently resulted in a massive increase in approval ratings for the BC NDP and Premier John Horgan,” Insights West said in a release.

Insights West goes on to say Horgan’s approval rating is the highest of any B.C. political leader since they began tracking eight years ago. ...

According to those polled, the COVID-19 crisis is the number one issue facing British Columbians right now, with 32 per cent choosing it as the most important issue facing the province.

The government’s handling of the pandemic received sky-high approval levels from those polled, with 85 per cent thinking the government has done a good job of combating the virus.

Housing prices, listed by 13 per cent of respondents, is the second-most pressing issue, ending a five-year run at the top of the list.

Housing prices are still the top concern among residents aged 18 to 34, with 24 per cent in that demographic listing it as a top concern.

Horgan has said repeatedly he has no plans on triggering an election this year. But doing so could be electorally beneficial. Based on the polling data, the B.C. New Democrats would win a majority government in the next election. ...

“These approval ratings could translate into a landslide victory for Horgan when we go to the polls,” the release reads.

“In fact, if an election were held right now, the NDP would receive 47 per cent of the decided popular vote primarily at the expense of other parties which have seen their support diminish since the start of the pandemic.”

According to the poll, BC Liberal voting intentions have dropped to 29 per cent, the lowest total since the 2017 provincial election. The Greens have also dropped to 11 per cent. The poll includes the BC Conservatives, who were named by 12 per cent of those polls as their choice in the next election.

Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson has seen his personal approval dropped five points to 30 per cent. Interim Green leader Adam Olsen has made his debut at a 29 per cent approval, the lowest result of any Green leader in an Insights West poll since the 2017 election.

“Perhaps some consolation for the opposition parties is the fact that the undecided vote is particularly high at 23 per cent right now, as the election race is far from the top of the public agenda,” the release reads. ...

The results are based on an online study conducted from June 24 to 28, 2020 among a sample of 830 B.C. residents. The margin of error—which measures sample variability—is +/- 3.4 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

https://globalnews.ca/news/7176249/bc-premier-john-horgan-approval-ratin...

jerrym

The NDP do face quite a few challenges. A second wave of Covid-19 handled badly could see their numbers crashing quickly. Even right now there is the beginning of a small rise in the daily new infection rate, but if they continue to follow Dr. Bonnie Henry's advice they may well weather this issue.

Housing was the #2 issue on voters minds and #1 for younger voters, as housing prices remain sky-high in Vancouver, Victoria and Kelowna although somewhat lower than earlier. But the BC Liberals face an uphill fight in championing housing after its leader, Andrew Wilkinson was quoted "calling renting a “wacky time of life,” “fun,” “enjoyable” and a “rite of passage” during prepared remarks in the legislature" in 2019, in his silverspoon foot in the mouth comments.(https://globalnews.ca/news/5013443/andrew-wilkinson-walks-back-wacky-ren...)

Although the provincial budget went from a small surplus to a $12.5 billion deficit in a few months, this kind of mushrooming debt is now common around the world as we face a global economic crisis. Many people are now much more interested in whether they have enough money to survive than worrying about debt problems. 

The NDP's attachment to megaprojects like LNG pipelines and Hydro dams could create problems if things don't work out but at least they don't own the $17 billion Trans Mountain pipeline boondoggle. However the LNG pipeline running through Wet'suwet'en land could flare up again creating another crisis. 

The provincial and federal Green party leaders have yet to be chosen, so their impact on the next election is yet to be seen. Unfortunately, most people continue to ignore the global warming crisis in the same way they ignored scientists warnings that we were overdue for a catastrophic pandemic crisis. Now they are focusing on the crisis immediately killing many people and responding to climate change much as in the cartoon below. I predict the price for not dealing with climate change until the deaths start piling up in large numbers will be even greater than from the Covid-19 pandemic. However, as a species we are biologically designed to deal with immediate problems, no matter how great long-term problems may be. The Greens, like the NDP, have also not always been consistent in their environmental advocacy, and thus face a number of issues in challenging the NDP.

Cartoonist Mike Luckovich  Mike Luckovich's Editorial Cartoons 2020-03-22 thought

Mike Luckovich's Editorial Cartoons by Mike Luckovich (2020-03-22)Image #182340

The drug overdose epidemic killed almost as many people in the month of June as Covid has since the start of the pandemic, but this does not get the media coverage that Covid has. Furthermore, many people sadly think of those who overdose as junkies, although that is starting to change, so it is another problem that could flare up before the election.

 

 

kropotkin1951

The BC NDP is going to run as the new liberal party against Wilkinson who sounds a lot like a Harper Conservative. I cannot vote for them after Site C and LNG have made a mockery of reconciliation. I have joined the BC Ecosocialists because we need the debate to be pushed into talking about real community solutions.

Introduction

The BC Ecosocialists.

A party that is to the left of the NDP and greener than the Greens. We know that it’s not a dream, but a practical reality that we can all live decent lives without having to keep someone else down. We have the resources to house everyone. We can feed everyone, without subjecting them to the humiliation of food banks. We can afford to provide childcare to everyone who needs it. We want to better tax rich people and corporations to fund better policies, like building tens of thousands of units of social housing, building new green energy and transportation infrastructure while putting a moratorium on all new fossil fuel infrastructure including all LNG. We oppose discrimination on the basis of race, class, sexual orientation, gender and disability. These values inform our policies from the bottom up; they are part of a framework of material as well as judicial rights that will shape building codes, vehicle design, program delivery and funding as well as employment equity in both the private and public sectors. We believe in decolonization; that means returning power, land and resources to Indigenous people, not just tearful apologies and photo-ops.

https://www.bcecosocialists.ca/

 

jerrym

It looks like the BC 2021 election set for October 2021 might happen a year earlier. 

There is lot of speculation that the NDP are going to call an election soon, possibly late this week or next week. The latest poll has the NDP at 48%, Liberals 29%, Greens 14%, Cons 8%, and others 1% (Angus Reid). The second last poll had NDP 51%, Liberals 25%, Greens 14%, Others 11% (there was no Con category in this Ekos poll).  (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_British_Columbia_general_election)

The Conservative vote usually collapses into the Liberal vote because the Liberals are mostly federal Conservatives, although the Conservative vote made the difference in a close race in a Vancouver Island riding that gave the NDP a chance to form government with the backing of the Greens instead of giving the Liberals a majority in the last election.

Sparked by polling at the end of last month that shows Premier Horgan’s approval rating ishigher than any premier in Canada, and that his party is well ahead of the second place Liberals, many political pundits are predicting Horgan will call an election a year earlier than the one scheduled for October, 2021.

Adding fuel to that fire of speculation is a steady stream of candidates coming forward to declare they intend to run for the party in the next election, including Tofino Mayor Josie Osborne, along with Horgan’s own refusal to rule out an early writ drop. ...

Hamish Telford is a political scientist at the University of the Fraser Valley. He says after all the hype seen in the past couple of weeks, it would be surprising if the premier didn’t call an election this fall. ...

The speculation has only intensified after the results of Monday’s snap election in New Brunswick, won by Blaine Higgs and his Progressive Conservatives. The party managed to turn a minority government into a majority — in the first campaign run during the pandemic.

But rolling the dice on an early election doesn’t come without risk, notes Shachi Kurl with the Angus Reid Institute.

“There is, at this point, a running rolling start for the NDP,” she notes. “That doesn’t mean they can take anything for granted because we’ve seen campaigns go sideways in the past.”

Infamously, that fate befell David Peterson and the Ontario Liberals three decades ago.

When asked by the media Monday whether he was going to call a fall election, Horgan was non-committal.

“We’ve been preparing for the eventuality of an election since day one, and I expect all other political parties have been doing that and well,” the premier said.

Meanwhile, the BC Liberals and Green Party have been clear they oppose an early election.

Sonia Furstenau became the BC Greens new leader Monday, and on Tuesday she strongly rejected the idea of a fall election.

https://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/speculation-runs-rampant-that-b-c-ele...

bekayne

jerrym wrote:

It looks like the BC 2021 election set for October 2021 might happen a year earlier. 

There is lot of speculation that the NDP are going to call an election soon, possibly late this week or next week. The latest poll has the NDP at 48%, Liberals 29%, Greens 14%, Cons 8%, and others 1% (Angus Reid). The second last poll had NDP 51%, Liberals 25%, Greens 14%, Others 11% (there was no Con category in this Ekos poll).  (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/42nd_British_Columbia_general_election)

The Conservative vote usually collapses into the Liberal vote because the Liberals are mostly federal Conservatives, although the Conservative vote made the difference in a close race in a Vancouver Island riding that gave the NDP a chance to form government with the backing of the Greens instead of giving the Liberals a majority in the last election.

Sparked by polling at the end of last month that shows Premier Horgan’s approval rating ishigher than any premier in Canada, and that his party is well ahead of the second place Liberals, many political pundits are predicting Horgan will call an election a year earlier than the one scheduled for October, 2021.

Adding fuel to that fire of speculation is a steady stream of candidates coming forward to declare they intend to run for the party in the next election, including Tofino Mayor Josie Osborne, along with Horgan’s own refusal to rule out an early writ drop. ...

Hamish Telford is a political scientist at the University of the Fraser Valley. He says after all the hype seen in the past couple of weeks, it would be surprising if the premier didn’t call an election this fall. ...

The speculation has only intensified after the results of Monday’s snap election in New Brunswick, won by Blaine Higgs and his Progressive Conservatives. The party managed to turn a minority government into a majority — in the first campaign run during the pandemic.

But rolling the dice on an early election doesn’t come without risk, notes Shachi Kurl with the Angus Reid Institute.

“There is, at this point, a running rolling start for the NDP,” she notes. “That doesn’t mean they can take anything for granted because we’ve seen campaigns go sideways in the past.”

Infamously, that fate befell David Peterson and the Ontario Liberals three decades ago.

When asked by the media Monday whether he was going to call a fall election, Horgan was non-committal.

“We’ve been preparing for the eventuality of an election since day one, and I expect all other political parties have been doing that and well,” the premier said.

Meanwhile, the BC Liberals and Green Party have been clear they oppose an early election.

Sonia Furstenau became the BC Greens new leader Monday, and on Tuesday she strongly rejected the idea of a fall election.

https://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/speculation-runs-rampant-that-b-c-ele...

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/tracking-every-case-of-covid-1...

jerrym

Here are more details from the most recent poll:

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds that an early election would, indeed, present Horgan and his party with quite the irresistible opportunity, should they choose to take it.

The New Democrats have opened a whopping 19-point lead over the opposition BC Liberals, with half of residents (48%) saying they would cast votes for the party that has helmed a minority government for three years. The BC Liberals take 29 per cent of the decided and leaning vote, while the B.C. Greens are at 14 per cent of current vote intention.

But against these sunny skies, dark clouds are forming on the horizon. The government is fighting a pitched battle with the union representing B.C. teachers as anxiety mounts over sending children back to school next week. The province is also continuing to fight – some would argue unsuccessfully – a sustained increase in COVID-19 cases.

Indeed, fully one-in-three B.C. residents say they would not be comfortable heading to the polls in person this fall as they would during a normal year, due to concerns about the coronavirus. BC NDP feel this more acutely than those who support other parties, with two-in-five New Democrat supporters saying they would be uncomfortable going physically to the polls.

More Key Findings:

  • The BC NDP holds a commanding lead in Metro Vancouver, 53 per cent to 26 per cent over the BC Liberals, and also leads by nine-points in the rest of the province, 42 per cent to 33 per cent
  • Four-in-five residents (83%) say the Horgan government’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic has been “good”
  • By contrast, British Columbians are critical of its response to the opioid epidemic. Only 22 per cent of residents say the government has done a good job on this file, compared to 71 per cent who say they have done a poor job

 

While health care overall and economic stewardship are also areas identified as areas of strength for this government, there are also areas of weakness. The BC NDP’s grading on housing affordability, for example, is lowest in the nation, and just one-in-three residents are convinced the government has handled the pipeline file well. Though it may seem eons ago, the province was embroiled in a pipeline dispute just this past February, as Wet’suwet’en solidarity protesters blocked railwaysacross the country to oppose the Coastal Gaslink pipeline running through Northern B.C.

Another item over which the government is more dimly viewed is its handling of the opioid problem. Deaths related to drug use have reached record levels in the province since the COVID-19 outbreak began, and just 22 per cent of British Columbians say the government is doing a good job in response.

http://angusreid.org/bc-government-august-2020/

jerrym

Here is an update on my analysis of issues since my July 24th #3 post.

The NDP challenges have changed somewhat. There has been a significant uptick in the number of Covid-19,  cases, similar to that of much of the rest of the country,  raising the risk of a large second wave. ​If handled badly the NDP could see their poll numbers crashing quickly. Calling the election during the Covid-19 crisis might also create problems for the party, although the situation is different from the federal situation in that the Trudeau Liberals have been in power for less than a year, while the last BC election was three and a half years ago. The breaking of their agreement to govern with the Greens might also cause problems. 

Housing was the #2 issue on voters minds and #1 for younger voters, as housing prices remain sky-high in Vancouver, Victoria and Kelowna although somewhat lower than earlier. I have not met a voter under 35 who is not unhappy about the situation.  However the BC Liberals are unlikely to benefit from this. They allowed local and international speculation in the housing sector to run wild leading to a New York Times article calling the situation the Wild West of free enterprise. While the NDP gets its lowest rating in housing affordability at 20% in the Angus Reid noted in the last post, the BC Liberals   face an uphill fight in championing housing after its leader, Andrew Wilkinson was quoted "calling renting a “wacky time of life,” “fun,” “enjoyable” and a “rite of passage” during prepared remarks in the legislature" in 2019, in his silverspoon foot in the mouth comments.(https://globalnews.ca/news/5013443/andrew-wilkinson-walks-back-wacky-ren...)

The second lowest polling number for the NDP in terms of issues was the drug use problem at 22%. For the three months of May through July the number of drug overdose deaths has been over 170, far greater than those due to Covid. B.C. recorded 911 overdose deaths between January and July 2020. Over that same period of time, 195 people died of COVID-19. Again the BC Liberals are hardly likely to be seen as champions on this issue because they did very little to solve the problem during their last term in office as it grew unchecked.  Yesterday the provincial government authorized registered nurses and doctors to prescribe pharmaceutical alternatives to street drugs" going further than any other province. The B.C. Centre for Disease Control estimates that nearly 6,000 deaths have been averted since April 2016 because of supports that have been put in place, including the distribution of the anti-overdose medication naloxone, the creation of more overdose-prevention sites and improved access to medication-assisted treatment." (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-nurses-safe-drugs-1.5...)

Although the provincial budget went from a small surplus to a $12.5 billion deficit in a few months, this kind of mushrooming debt is now common around the world as we face a global economic crisis. Many people are now much more interested in whether they have enough money to survive than worrying about debt problems. 

The NDP's attachment to megaprojects like LNG pipelines and Hydro dams could create problems if things don't work out but at least they don't own the $17 billion Trans Mountain pipeline boondoggle. However the LNG pipeline running through Wet'suwet'en land could flare up again creating another crisis. 

The provincial  Green party has just chosen a new leader, Sonia Furstenau after their previous leader Andrew Weaver left the party to sit as an independent and continues to support the NDP on many issues. Furstenau provides a fresh face that might offer the Greens a boost and argues against an election because of the pandemic. The selection of a new federal leader on October 4th might also give the party a boost depending on how well they perform early on, but again he/she would suffer from not being well known.

The wildfires burning along the US west coast may serve as a wake-up call to more of the electorate. However, despite numerous other warnings about global warming by scientists, many other environmental catastrophes, and polls showing high interest in dealing with the problem at times,  many people continue to not base their vote on this issue. Now they are focusing on the crisis immediately killing many people. I predict the price for not dealing with climate change until the deaths start piling up in large numbers will be even greater than from the Covid-19 pandemic. However, as a species we are biologically designed to deal with immediate problems, no matter how great long-term problems may be. The BC Greens, like the NDP, have also not always been consistent in their environmental advocacy, and thus face a number of issues in challenging the NDP on this. 

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

..a good pitch

Sonia Furstenau is running for leader of the BC Greens.

nicky

I note that Finn Donnelly has secured the NDP nomination for Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, a marginal Liberal seat. And Murray Rankin is contesting the nomination for Oak Bay, the seat Andrew Weaver is vacating. 

Does anyone have any insight into whether Nathan Cullen might run, perhaps in the close Liberal seat of Skeena?

nicky

To answer my own question, Nathan Cullen has just tweeted he is going for the NDP nomination in Stikine where the NDP incumbent is stepping down.

That  makes 3 former NDP MPs running in the provincial election.

jerrym

epaulo13 wrote:

..a good pitch

Sonia Furstenau is running for leader of the BC Greens.

Sonia Furstenau already is the BC Green leader. She was elected leader of the BC Greens on September 13th. 

The MLA for Cowichan Valley defeated challenger Cam Brewer, garnering 2,428 votes to Brewer's 2,127 in the second round of the ranked ballot election. Kim Darwin, the third candidate in the race, was eliminated after the first round of voting.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-green-party-new-leade...

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

jerrym wrote:

epaulo13 wrote:

..a good pitch

Sonia Furstenau is running for leader of the BC Greens.

Sonia Furstenau already is the BC Green leader. She was elected leader of the BC Greens on September 13th. 

The MLA for Cowichan Valley defeated challenger Cam Brewer, garnering 2,428 votes to Brewer's 2,127 in the second round of the ranked ballot election. Kim Darwin, the third candidate in the race, was eliminated after the first round of voting.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-green-party-new-leade...

..txs but i understood that when i posted that video. my point was what she was saying.

Ken Burch

Where is Furstenau on the political spectrum compared to Weaver?

 

epaulo13 epaulo13's picture

..from her pitch i would say left of the ndp. we will have to wait and see though. 

eta:

..one of the reasons i say this is her position on "innovative economy" that stops living at the mercy of boom and bust cycles. brings skilled jobs back to rural bc.

..i remember horgan speaking about this in the lead up to the last election. once elected though he put all the ndp eggs into the lng projects. transferring multi millions in tax concessions to major global corporations. 

..this includes building the site c dam in order to power  lng. like tmx it's a multi billion dollar boondoggle. 10.7 billion and rising last count. a lot of that money could have gone to building that "innovative economy". and not resulted in trampling the rights of indigenous peoples.

..many greens weren't happy lng/site c. get a few more seats and they could maybe force the ndp off it's obsession with lng. 

kropotkin1951

This BC NDP government is great in all the small incremental stuff and has managed the pandemic well. They have flunked on all the important issues. Horgan went to Site C and put a protest cross in the ground before the election. The NDP in both BC and Alberta have somehow been captured by the foreign owners of our oil and gas industries. So I cannot vote for them to frack the province and kill the ground water. I live on Vancouver Island and this is where the NDP may once again face an expanded Green caucus.

I think that if Horgan pulls the plug himself many people will be pissed and if that occurs at the same time as a surge in cases after schools reopens it could be a David Barrett moment.  The best case scenario is a Green surge that gives them enough seats to deny Horgan a dictatorship.

Aristotleded24

kropotkin1951 wrote:
I think that if Horgan pulls the plug himself many people will be pissed and if that occurs at the same time as a surge in cases after schools reopens it could be a David Barrett moment.  The best case scenario is a Green surge that gives them enough seats to deny Horgan a dictatorship.

I agree, and polling I've seen suggests it may be BC NDP voters the most angry at that move. This isn't a case like what we are seeing in Saskatchewan where the natural end of a government mandate happens to coincide with a pandemic. There is a long time left in the mandate of the BC government. I think you could even make an argment that an election would interfere from the task of governing and managing the pandemic. Then of course what if the government is defeated? What problems will the transition experience while the virus continues to spread? Why not see the pandemic through and, if successful, campaign on that?

bekayne

kropotkin1951 wrote:

I think that if Horgan pulls the plug himself many people will be pissed and if that occurs at the same time as a surge in cases after schools reopens it could be a David Barrett moment.  

I agree mostly, with the difference that Bill Bennett was a much more formidable political operator than Wilkinson.

Ken Burch

bekayne wrote:

kropotkin1951 wrote:

I think that if Horgan pulls the plug himself many people will be pissed and if that occurs at the same time as a surge in cases after schools reopens it could be a David Barrett moment.  

I agree mostly, with the difference that Bill Bennett was a much more formidable political operator than Wilkinson.

The weirdest thing about Barrett's choice to call that election two-and-a-half years early, even though he had a solid majority in the legislature and could easily have waited another year, is that he called the election before the new riding boundaries, which would have been much more favorable to the NDP, went into effect.  He also did so right after the federal NDP lost 9 out of 11 seats in the '74 federal election.  You really have to wonder what the hell he was thinking.

bekayne

Ken Burch wrote:

bekayne wrote:

kropotkin1951 wrote:

I think that if Horgan pulls the plug himself many people will be pissed and if that occurs at the same time as a surge in cases after schools reopens it could be a David Barrett moment.  

I agree mostly, with the difference that Bill Bennett was a much more formidable political operator than Wilkinson.

The weirdest thing about Barrett's choice to call that election two-and-a-half years early, even though he had a solid majority in the legislature and could easily have waited another year, is that he called the election before the new riding boundaries, which would have been much more favorable to the NDP, went into effect.  He also did so right after the federal NDP lost 9 out of 11 seats in the '74 federal election.  You really have to wonder what the hell he was thinking.

Hubris. He thought Bennett was a lightweight and could be crushed.

Aristotleded24

Mark October 24 on your calendars:

Quote:

After weeks of speculation, B.C. NDP leader John Horgan has made official the worst kept secret in the province: British Columbians are heading to the polls. 

Horgan announced Monday he had called an election for Oct. 24 after meeting with Lt.-Gov. Janet Austin and asking her to dissolve the legislature.

"I've struggled mightily with this decision and it did not come easily to me," said Horgan, acknowledging the controversy of calling an early election during a global pandemic. 

But he said that with COVID-19 expected to be a fact of life for the next year, an election made sense now. 

"We can either delay that decision and create uncertain and instability over the 12 months…. or we can do what I believe is always the right thing, and ask British Columbians what they think."

The announcement comes after weeks of speculation that Horgan would call an election just over three years into his mandate, and it comes after six cabinet ministers announced their retirements in the past seven days.

So Horgan is the latest politician to use the covid crisis as a blatant power grab. Such a shame. A few accomplishments on housing, some pre-pandemic progress on managing the overdose problem, and massive political capital and goodwill over its covid response. And Horgan is willing to risk all of that for personal gain.

Despicable. I would probably not vote for the BC NDP if I lived there, and I imagine many other NDP supporters who overall agree with the government's covid response feel the same way.

Ken Burch

Two questions emerge:

A. Will this election be conducted by mail-in ballot?

B. Will the BC Ecosocialists be able to do anything significant with this situation, or will the new BC Green leader outflank them on the left?

 

 

jerrym

Ken Burch wrote:

Two questions emerge:

A. Will this election be conducted by mail-in ballot?

B. Will the BC Ecosocialists be able to do anything significant with this situation, or will the new BC Green leader outflank them on the left?

A: The url below includes info on voting, including voting by mail. "The url says all voters can vote request a vote-by-mail package ... emailing election BC or by calling voter services at 1-800-661-8683." 

https://globalnews.ca/news/7348676/bc-election-2020-how-to-vote/

B: The latest poll has the NDP at 48%, Liberals 29%, Greens 14%, Cons 8%, and Others 1% (Angus Reid). Others includes several parties, as well as the BC Ecosocialists, who formed in 2019. They describe themselves as " further left than the NDP, and greener than the Greens. We prioritize people over profit". Being so new, it is not surprising that they have a very small base to build on according to the above polling. It will be a challenge to get their name and policies known in the tight frame of a provincial election, especially when the primary issue for many voters will be Covid-19 and they are so little known. The BC Conservatives at much higher percentages have not been able to get into the TV debates, nor could the Greens for several elections when they had no provincial members, so it is highly unlikely the Ecosocialists will be able to use TV debates to build their image. While the Liberals might see the Ecosocialists as providing an opportunity to further divide their opponents' vote, I extremely doubt the NDP or Greens would provide them an opportunity to debate on TV. As climate change hits BC harder in the not-too-distant future and as housing, overdoses and other issues grow they could use this election to build the party to challenge the larger parties in the future.  

 

Ken Burch

Thanks for the info.

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Horgan got a personal approval rating of 48% in a recent poll, based on BC's handling of the early part of the pandemic. Question is, with COVID case numbers up significantly, and higher case numbers likely as election day approaches, how many people who supported the NDP over their early pandemic response will decide to punish the party come election day?

Mighty Middle

NDPers in Stikine are crying foul that Nathan Cullen apparently "sewn" up the nomination

The BC NDP's own rules state that when a self-identifying white male MLA over the age of 40 does not run again then the next candidate for the party must be from an equity-seeking group.

An Indigenous advocate who served three terms as president of the Tahltan Central Government, Annita McPhee, has now submitted her paperwork to be the candidate for the NDP in the next provincial election in the northern B.C. riding of Stikine.

She is asking Nathan Cullen to step aside under the party’s equity mandate.

The BC NDP has released a statement saying in certain instances, despite extensive candidate searches, the party’s regulations permit allowances for other candidates to be considered for nomination.

Mighty Middle

Members of the Fraser-Nicola NDP Constituency Association are crying foul over what they’re calling the “undemocratic” and “dictatorial” behaviour of the NDP Provincial Office after they parachuted Aaron Sumexheltza as the candidate for the 2021 election.

All 13 members have tendered their resignation from the executive in protest of Sumexheltza being named the candidate for the riding.

http://www.pentictonherald.ca/news/article_36105f80-fa98-11ea-af47-9b960...

jerrym

Left Turn wrote:

Horgan got a personal approval rating of 48% in a recent poll, based on BC's handling of the early part of the pandemic. Question is, with COVID case numbers up significantly, and higher case numbers likely as election day approaches, how many people who supported the NDP over their early pandemic response will decide to punish the party come election day?

Horgan's most recent approval ratings were 69% on August 31st, the highest in the country for premiers  in an Angus Reid poll, and 68% in an Insight West poll during July, which was a record for an Insight West BC poll. While a large spike in Covid or other problems could quickly change his approval rating, the question is whether he can maintain his rating in this election, not what his rating was at the beginning of the pandemic. 

The Insight West poll also looked at the approval rating of the Liberal leader, Andrew Wilkinson whose 30% approval rating was a statisical tie with Green Party interim leader Adam Olsen's 29%, while BC Conservative leader came last at 18%.

The new Green Party leader, Sonia Furstenau, who was chosen on September 14th, won't have a lot of time to build the party's image and popularity before election day.  

The BC Liberals face an uphill fight if they attempt to champion housing, which is ranked second in provincial problems only to Covid, after what its leader said.  Andrew Wilkinson was quoted "calling renting a “wacky time of life,” “fun,” “enjoyable” and a “rite of passage” during prepared remarks in the legislature" in 2019. Given his silverspoon foot in the mouth comments on this and other issues, the Liberal  Party's relatively low rankings are not surprising. 

 

Published Monday, August 31, 2020 12:29PM PDT

British Columbia Premier John Horgan currently has the highest approval rating of any premier in Canada, according to new poll results released Monday.

Horgan edged out his counterparts in Ontario and Quebec in the top three spots, respectively, according to an Angus Reid Institute poll that puts the B.C. premier's current approval rating at 69 per cent.

"Despite rising numbers of cases, which reached record levels last week, Horgan’s approval is highest in the country at 69 per cent, suggesting that low (though increasing) hospitalization rates may be calming the public to some extent," Angus Reid said in a statement announcing the poll results.

"As younger residents drive much of the province’s rising trend in COVID-19 case numbers and tune out public health officials, Horgan recently reached out to B.C.-born celebrities Ryan Reynolds and Seth Rogen in an effort to change the message."

https://vancouverisland.ctvnews.ca/b-c-premier-s-approval-rating-highest...

 

Published Wednesday, July 15, 2020 11:06AM PDT 

B.C.'s premier is seeing record-breaking approval ratings as COVID-19 remains top of mind for residents, a new poll suggests.

According to an Insights West survey, the BC NDP's approval is growing stronger and Premier John Horgan's rating has ballooned to 68 per cent, which is the highest level obtained by a political leader in B.C. since Insights West began tracking eight years ago. 

"These approval ratings could translate into a landslide victory for Horgan when we go to the polls in May of 2021," Insights West's analysis says.

"In fact, if an election were held right now, the NDP would receive 47 per cent of the decided popular vote primarily at the expense of other parties which have seen their support diminish since the start of the pandemic."

For opposition leaders, however, approval rating is dropping. Insights West says BC Liberal Leader Andrew Wilkinson's rating has decreased by five per cent since November to 30 per cent. 

The Green's interim leader, Adam Olsen, has a 29 per cent approval rating, which is the lowest of any Green leader since the 2017 election. Meanwhile, Trevor Bolin, leader of the B.C. Conservatives, has an approval rating of 18 per cent.

https://bc.ctvnews.ca/b-c-premier-s-approval-rating-soars-to-record-leve...

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

jerrym wrote:
Horgan's most recent approval ratings were 69% on August 31st, the highest in the country for premiers  in an Angus Reid poll, and 68% in an Insight West poll during July, which was a record for an Insight West BC poll. While a large spike in Covid or other problems could quickly change his popularity, the question is whether he can maintain his popularity in this election, not what his popularity was at the beginning of the pandemic.

My bad, I thought Horgan's most recent approval rating was 48%. Turns out I was wrong.

Obviously the question is whether or not Horgan can maintain his high approval rating through the campaign, not what his approval rating was at the beginning of the pandemic. I was pointing out that Horgan's high approval rating (69% rather than the 48% I previously claimed) is widely believed to be the result of the NDP and Bonnie Henry's handling of the first wave of the pandemic.

jerrym

The url below takes a look at 14 of what are likely to be the most closely fought riding races. 

https://globalnews.ca/news/7344240/14-ridings-bc-election/

MegB

Hi jerrym. Please note that thread titles are like headlines - first word capitalized only unless it's a proper name, place name, etc. Thanks!

Mighty Middle

The B.C. NDP has nominated former MP Nathan Cullen as its candidate for the Stikine riding, one week after Indigenous leader Annita McPhee put her name forward for the position. 

The NDP's equity mandate states that when a male MLA retires, he has to be replaced by a member of an equity-seeking group, such as a woman or an Indigenous person.

But none of the 15 equity-seeking group members that the party approached wanted to be considered, and McPhee — who is both female and of Tahltan Nation — was not among the 15 people, the B.C. NDP wrote in a statement to CBC News. 

"In the aftermath of the 2019 federal NDP nomination in Skeena, Annita McPhee made it clear to many members that she never again wanted to be associated with the NDP. As such she was not approached for our search," Megan Olson, president of the Stikine B.C. NDP Riding Association, said in a statement.

McPhee rejected the NDP's statement that she never wanted to be associated with the party. 

"I don't remember saying something like that," she said. "If I did say something like that, it would have been in confidence."

Last Tuesday, McPhee declared her desire to run for the B.C. NDP nomination in a Facebook post. She submitted her application package for nomination on Friday, but some of the signatures on the package were not valid under the party's regulations.

"While these issues were ultimately resolved this [Monday] morning, there was simply not enough time to process the application," B.C. NDP president Craig Keating said in a statement.

Keating also said the party approached Cullen — who represented the Skeena-Bulkley Valley federal riding from 2004 to 2019 — after all equity-seeking group members rejected the nomination offer. Keating did not say when Cullen submitted his application package.

McPhee said she wasn't notified until late Sunday evening that there was an error with her application package — two of her nominating members' signatures were missing.

"We emailed them back right away … and we never heard back from them. And then I read on Twitter that I'm disqualified today [Monday]," she said.

McPhee served three terms as the president of the Tahltan Central Government for the Tahltan Nation. McPhee's communications manager, Ginger Gosnell-Meyers, said she's disappointed by the NDP's decision to nominate Cullen, who should be prevented by the equity mandate to seek nomination.

"I'm really sad for all of the exceptional Indigenous leaders who will not have an opportunity for public service because someone who has inside connections is given special treatment," Gosnell-Meyers said.

In a written statement to CBC News, Cullen said he's confident in public support for him in the Stikine riding and cannot speak to the B.C. NDP's nomination and vetting processes.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-ndp-nominate-nathan-c...

kropotkin1951

I think that on Vancouver Island we will see a lot of tight three way races. If Sonja runs a good campaign she could increase her seat total her. Then again she might just get close enough for the Liberals to take seats.

I will not be voting for the NDP and at this point I am waiting to see what direction the Greens take and whether there is a BC Eco-Socialist candidate running in my riding of Mid-Island Pacific Rim. Scott Fraser won easily last time but he is not running again. Josie Osborne, the Mayor of Tofino is seeking the nomination for the NDP.

Osborne has known Fraser since 1998, when she moved to Tofino to work as a fisheries biologist for the Nuu-chah-nulth Tribal Council. Fraser was Tofino’s mayor at the time.

https://hashilthsa.com/news/2020-09-17/tofino%E2%80%99s-mayor-seek-provi...

 

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Here's 338 Canada's current projection for the BC election, released on September 2nd.
https://338canada.com/bc/

Popular Vote Projection
NDP -- 46.7% +/-5.3%
LIB -- 31.6% +/-4.7%
GRN 14.7% +/- 3.4%
CON 6.2% +/-1.9%

Seat Projection
NDP 60.3 +/-13
LIB 24.9 +/- 12.4
GRN 1.8 +/- 1.7

It should be noted that the polled support for the BC Conservative Party has in recent elections collapsed to the BC Liberals come election day; and since the BC Conservative Party website has not been updated since March, I would expect this pattern to continue. This means that the race is likely somewhat tighter than what 338 is projecting.

jerrym

Stuart Parker, BC Green Party leader from 1993 to 2000, has resigned as the leader of the BC Ecosocialists. I stumbled across this just released article in looking up some background on federal Green Party leadership candidate Meryam Haddad, who I didn't know anything about. She complained in a tweet about Parker's comments regarding trans women, leading in the end to his resignation. 

B.C. Ecosocialists Leader Stuart Parker will resign as a candidate in Prince George–Valemount and as the party leader, effective at midnight tonight. Below, you can read a statement that Parker, a former B.C. Green leader, posted on his website:

Comrades,

I see that BC’s two counterfeit left parties have chosen their strategy for derailing our campaign. A slew of false allegations of transphobia are being circulated against me and being used to tarnish the party and derail the important work of the coming campaign.

We cannot afford to have that happen. The primary voting issue in this election must remain climate justice. Nothing can distract us from what is truly at stake: the very survival of our species. Every day we spend discussing whether it was wrong for me to defend a local Vancouver activist from a campaign to blacklist her from employment is a day we do not spend discussing John Horgan using the RCMP as Royal Dutch Shell’s brute squad to drive a fracked gas pipeline through the territory of the Wet’suwet’en people. And we cannot afford that distraction.

So, it is with regret and reluctance that I am tendering my resignation as director, leader and candidate effective midnight tonight. I know, from the sterling group of young people who have joined our slate and our board over the past eleven months that I am leaving this party is excellent hands. You folks will do a great job and I will be proud to cast a vote for whomever the party selects in Prince George-Valemount.

We cannot afford to have that happen. The primary voting issue in this election must remain climate justice. Nothing can distract us from what is truly at stake: the very survival of our species. Every day we spend discussing whether it was wrong for me to defend a local Vancouver activist from a campaign to blacklist her from employment is a day we do not spend discussing John Horgan using the RCMP as Royal Dutch Shell’s brute squad to drive a fracked gas pipeline through the territory of the Wet’suwet’en people. And we cannot afford that distraction.

So, it is with regret and reluctance that I am tendering my resignation as director, leader and candidate effective midnight tonight. I know, from the sterling group of young people who have joined our slate and our board over the past eleven months that I am leaving this party is excellent hands. You folks will do a great job and I will be proud to cast a vote for whomever the party selects in Prince George-Valemount.

Solidarity and courage

Tweets that preceded the resignation

Stuart Parker been a proud supporter of trans rights for 25 years. I secured the @VanGreens endorsement of Jamie Lee Hamilton's 1st serious campaign by a trans candidate in Canada. Proud to have co-authored @BCEcosocialists policy calling for expanded trans rights today.

Meryam Haddad I have been made aware of transphobic comments from @stuartlosaltos, director of @BCEcosocialists. I have been in contact with both parties. I demanded Stuart apologize and resign. He refused. If BC Ecosocialists does not expell him, I will disavow them as well.

Chris Markevich Yeah I sincerely hope that Stuart changes his mind. Not a good look for anyone to double down on transphobia, perceived or not.

Did she actually recieve rp threats. I've been following this and haven't actually seen those, just TERFs and alt-right trolls claiming it. This sounds disingenuous, an attempt to play on women's emotions by using sexual assault imagery, and if so it's extremely misogynistic.

Chris Markevich Not to mention the fact that JKR is hugely privileged, is a billionaire, and is very powerful with her words. Anyone who has read her books knows she is masterful at telling stories.

Stuart Parker All I did was defend a group of three elderly women who spoke out against the rape threats JK Rowling received when people were suggesting a campaign to get one of them fired. I think we all deserve secure employment and a life free of rape threats.

queer elizadick You repeated a great deal of typical transphobic arguments in your blog, constructing trans women as threats to cis women and portraying life-saving gender-affirming treatments as dangerous tools of the state.

https://www.straight.com/news/stuart-parker-resigns-as-leader-of-bc-ecos...

 

jerrym

This morning Meryam Haddad was disqualified from the Green Party leadership race, with the statement 

Leadership Contestants and all persons acting under their direction are bound by the GPC Constitution and bylaws, including the Members' code of conduct, according to which members must not intentionally undertake any action which would bring the GPC into disrepute.

It is not clear whether this has anything to do with the Stuart Parker resignation as leader of the BC Ecosocialists and her comments about him or with her proposal for "a One Time Alliance with the NDP to Achieve Electoral Reform" released yesterday. That proposal can be seen at the url below: 

https://www.facebook.com/meryamhaddad2020/photos/a.111808700214814/37800...

Ken Burch

Let's face it, they forced her out because she was too inspiring and eloquent, because she represented the idea that the GPC should give up its pointless pursuit of the non-existent "Tories with composters" vote.

It's also likely an anti-Lascaris move, because there were going to be a lot of Haddad supporters- and her support seemed to be surging- giving second-preference votes to Haddad.

jerrym

Ken Burch wrote:

It's also likely an anti-Lascaris move, because there were going to be a lot of Haddad supporters- and her support seemed to be surging- giving second-preference votes to Haddad.

Do you mean "Haddad supporters- and her support seemed to be surging- giving second-preference votes to Haddad" or "Haddad supporters- and her support seemed to be surging- giving second-preference votes to" Lascaris?

Ken Burch

jerrym wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

It's also likely an anti-Lascaris move, because there were going to be a lot of Haddad supporters- and her support seemed to be surging- giving second-preference votes to Haddad.

 

Do you mean "Haddad supporters- and her support seemed to be surging- giving second-preference votes to Haddad" or "Haddad supporters- and her support seemed to be surging- giving second-preference votes to" Lascaris?

Good question...to clarify...I meant people who'd have given their first-preference votes to Haddad giving their second-preference votes to Lascaris.

 

Ken Burch

Even worse, given that some votes may already have been received, any votes giving first-preference to Haddad might be declared invalid, and the only candidates which will benefit from that, if it happens, will be Paul, the "I don't owe anybody an explanation of my foreign policy views" candidate and the candidates to her right.

jerrym

Ken Burch wrote:

Even worse, given that some votes may already have been received, any votes giving first-preference to Haddad might be declared invalid, and the only candidates which will benefit from that, if it happens, will be Paul, the "I don't owe anybody an explanation of my foreign policy views" candidate and the candidates to her right.

That is a very small amount fortunately. 

Almost 35,000 people are signed up to vote in the contest, with the winner to be announced in Ottawa Oct. 3. Electronic voting begins Sept. 26. Fewer than 300 members requested a mail-in ballot, leaving the rest to cast their vote electronically.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-green-party-expels-mont...

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Getting back to the BC election (let's keep the Green Party of Canada discussion in the Green Party of Canada threads, please):

BC Snap Election - Politics Or Ploy? (Podcast)

Guests include (not in order): Meryam Haddad, Derrick O'Keefe, Dr. Budrino (Budrino Politics Podcast), and David Moscrop.