The next British Columbia provincial election

146 posts / 0 new
Last post
nicky
Ken Burch

Interesting.  That will make it easier for the BCNDP to retake Oak Bay-Gordon Head, but it looks like it's more about Weaver getting payback on the his old party than anything else.

The guy was pissed that his MLA's didn't push the BCNDP to back off on the LNG products...so he responds by endorsing the BCNDP against his former MLA's?

 

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Latest BC election projection from 338Canada.com

Popular Vote Projection
NDP 43.8% +/- 5.8%
LIB 36.8% +/- 5.5%
GRN 13.8% +/- 3.5%
CON 5.3% +/- 1.7%
OTH 0.4% +/- 0.2%

Seat Projection
NDP 50.4 +/- 13.7
LIB 34.8 +/- 13.1
GRN 1.8 +/- 1.7
 

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

James Marshall: With his snap election, John Horgan delivers massive blow to equity in our province

Quote:
John Horgan has just called a snap mid-pandemic election, and we’re likely to get a slate of candidates that are older, richer, whiter, and more male than in any other recent elections.

When a political party puts out an open call for people to apply as candidates, there is one segment of the population that applies in far greater numbers than any other. And it makes sense why: if you’re retired then you have the available time to do something like run for office. If you’re wealthy then you have the money to put your life on hold to do so, and if you’re white and male then you’re far more likely to have the (maybe misplaced) self-confidence to think that you should be in charge of things.

...

By calling this snap election, John Horgan is  dealing a massive blow to equity in our province and democracy. He has added extra barriers to the participation of many of the people that we’d like to see running for office, and stacked the deck for the richest and most privileged among us to clean up and take over.

 

kropotkin1951

In very interesting news for my region Alexandra Morton is seeking the Green nomination for the seat that Minister Claire Trevena is not running in this time and has held for fifteen years. This is from Alexandra Morton's FB page.

I am seeking nomination to run for MLA for North Island as a Green Candidate. I need 175 signatures by 1st ferry on Wednesday. I will be at the Li'l Wild Gift Shop at the new dock from 12-2:30. You can sign, or give me an earful! I depend on Sointulians to tell me what you think. See ya!

I found it fascinating since the day before it seemed that the Greens had announced their candidate without the formality of a nomination.

Long-time Green Party candidate Sue Moen is stepping up to the plate again this year as the party’s North Island MLA candidate.

“I have been involved with the Green Party at both [federal and provincial] levels for over ten year,” Moen said. “In a snap election they were looking for people with some experience who could hit the ground running.”

The Green Party has plans to run candidates in each riding in the province this year, however as they were just coming off a leadership race they have been slow to announce their candidates. Moen said she was invited by the party to run in the contested North Island riding.

https://www.campbellrivermirror.com/news/moen-tapped-to-run-for-green-pa...

While Sue  is a good progressive candidate Alexandra is someone to be excited about.

 

jerrym

The latest poll, an Ipsos one, shows the NDP at 51% with an 18% lead over the Liberals who have 33% while the Greens have 12% and other parties 4%. The NDP leads in all regions including in the Southern Interior/North where they usually do poorest. One important thing could change the outcome: 31% are undecided. The NDP are ranked ahead of the other parties by the public on 10 of 11 issues, including the top five choices (namely Covid, cost-of-living, economy, health care, and housing )  by those polled, with the sole exception being environment/climate change where the Greens lead (see chart on % for each issue and party at the url below). 

The Issues British Columbians care about a wide variety of different issues in this provincial election. Coronavirus/COVID-19 is at the top of the list but is still only mentioned by three-in-ten (30%) residents. Other important issues include cost of living/affordability (24%), jobs and the economy (19%), health care (19%) and housing affordability/availability (17%).

The Horserace It’s not close. The NDP start the campaign with an 18-point lead over the BC Liberals. Currently, 51% of decided voters say they would be most likely to support or lean towards the New Democrats. The BC Liberals are next at 33% support, followed by the Greens at 12%. Total ‘other party’ support is 4%. These results exclude the 31% of British Columbians who are undecided or express no preference.

The good news for the BC Liberals and Greens is that there are more undecided voters available this election compared to the start of the 2017 campaign (31% today vs. 23% in first poll of 2017 campaign).

Age Breaks: The NDP leads by a wide margin across all age groups, including by 18-points among traditionally higher turnout older voters (NDP 52% vs. Libs 34% among 55+ years).

Gender Breaks: The NDP have a 25-point lead among women (53% NDP vs. 28% Libs) and a narrower, but still substantial, 11-point lead among men (49% Libs vs. 38% NDP).

Region Breaks: The NDP has a large 26-point lead on Vancouver Island (51% NDP vs. 25% Libs) and a 23-point lead in Metro Vancouver (55% NDP vs. 32% Libs). Things are much closer in the Southern Interior/North, where the NDP has only a 5-point lead (44% NDP vs. 39% Libs). The Green Party does best on Vancouver Island at 20% support (vs. 11% in Metro Vancouver, 9% in Southern Interior/North). ...

Best Premier BC Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson and newly elected Green Party leader Sonia Furstenau need to use the first part of the campaign to raise their profiles. John Horgan, at 44%, has a huge lead over both Wilkinson (14%) and Furstenau (6%) as the leader who British Columbians think would make the best Premier of the province. Again, the number of undecided voters is large, at 36% (vs. 31% in first poll of 2017).

Deserving Re-Election The 2017 election opened with nearly six-in-ten (56%) voters saying it was time for change. This election, only half as many voters (28%) say it is time for another provincial party to take over. Nearly half (45%) of British Columbians believe that the Horgan government has done a good job and deserves re-election. As with vote, the good news for the other parties is that there is a sizable pool of voters who are undecided about whether it is time for change (27% today vs. 16% in first poll of 2017 campaign).

Best on Issues John Horgan and the NDP own most issues. They are well ahead on the top 5 campaign issues of Coronavirus/COVID-19 (31-point lead), cost of living/affordability (18-point lead), jobs/economy (11 point lead), health care (23-point lead) and housing affordability/availability (20-point lead).

Sonia Furstenau and the Green Party lead on the issue of climate change and the environment. Andrew Wilkinson and the BC Liberals do not lead on any issue and are closest on government deficits and debt (4-points behind), which a top issue for only 6% of voters.

Election Timing and Impact There is no pervasive anger at the decision by John Horgan and the NDP to hold an election now instead of waiting for the planned fixed election date in October 2021. Just less than half (46%) of British Columbians say they disapprove of having an election now, while 32% approve of the decision.

The current NDP lead in vote intention is the best sign that voters are not yet planning to punish John Horgan and the NDP for calling a snap election. We also asked respondents directly whether it would impact their vote and only 15% said they were seriously considering a vote for the NDP and are less likely to do so now. Twice as many residents (32%) said they were seriously considering a vote for the NDP and the snap election has no impact on their vote.

Another two-in-ten (21%) residents said they were not seriously considering a vote for the NDP and one-third (32%) had no opinion on this question.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/British-Columbians-Are-Not-Looking-For-Change

jerrym

While I am no great lover of sales taxes because of their regressive nature that takes a higher percentage of a lower income person's income, Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson's proposal to do away with this 7% tax for a year and then reintroduce it at 3%  would greatly damage BC's already inadequate social problems because that is the unspoken part of what he said as the following article discusses. I would prefer to see a higher income tax rate for those with higher incomes instead of  a sales tax, but I know that is not going to happen anytime soon. 

Consider Andrew Wilkinson, hapless leader of British Columbia’s Liberals (who are really Conservatives) and his promise to B.C. voters yesterday to eliminate the province's sales tax -- which has been around so long in this place that nobody even notices it, let alone complains about it.

Well, any old port in a storm, I guess. B.C.'s New Democratic Party premier, John Horgan, was riding high in the polls when he called a snap election a week ago for October 24, and for all of Wilkinson's academic achievements (he's both a physician and a lawyer) he seems to have the charisma of a damp squib.

Seemingly desperate, B.C.'s Opposition leader is only channeling generations of Alberta politicians who have been lecturing the rest of Canada's provinces forever on how to run their affairs -- you know, first win the lottery, refuse to raise enough money in taxes to keep the lights on and call it the local advantage, run the place on resource revenues till the boom goes bust, then blame the federal government for all your problems. ...

Just cut $9 billion or so out of the provincial revenue stream (the conservative B.C. Liberals claim it would only be $6.9 billion, but they're stretching the facts like the proverbial rubber band) and see how things work out!

Important point: the B.C. Opposition leader claims this would be just for one year. After which, he'd reimpose a sales tax, albeit at a revenue-destroying three per cent, down four percentage points from the current rate.

But this is hooey. The idea is to create the circumstances in which maintaining the revenues needed to provide the public services that citizens have come to expect becomes increasingly difficult. The Canadian Taxpayers Federation and like astro turf groups stand by to assist shouting about how deficits are unsustainable but taxes must not be raised.

When you reach the point that something's gotta give, the wonderful market stands ready to provide "choices" that end up costing citizens far more than a modest sales tax ever did. By then, of course, it's too late to go back. That's where boom-bust Alberta has been for decades, which sort of worked as long as you could believe there'd be another oil boom. Now? Maybe not so much.

Economist Jim Stanford, one of Alberta's greatest exports, explained the problems with Wilkinson's approach in a useful primer on the Progressive Economics Forum's website yesterday. Stanford provides a good precis of the flaws in the Liberals' fiscal arithmetic, which is optimistic at best, misleading at worst. He notes that -- as intended -- the tax-cut genie is hard to put back in the bottle once it gets out. "The Liberal proposal should be interpreted as permanently reducing (or even eliminating) the PST -- with implications for provincial budgeting that will last for decades." And he observes that Wilkinson's plan would shoot the province's deficit from a projected $12.8 billion for the next fiscal year right into the Alberta zone at $21 billion.

There's precious little evidence that sales taxes do anything to hold back economic recovery, Stanford adds. "A lack of income, employment, and confidence is the problem. Lower sales taxes will not spur Covid-fearing Canadians to suddenly rush to the malls," he explains. "It would be much more effective to boost employment, incomes, and confidence through direct spending programs. It is interesting to compare retail sales in B.C. to Alberta," Stanford continued. "B.C.'s monthly sales growth was almost twice Alberta's in July. Year/year sales growth to July was 3.5 times better than Alberta's."

Just like Alberta Premier Jason Kenney, as premier Wilkinson would be quick to return to his past claims deficits are unsustainable, a line favoured by right-wing politicians everywhere, the minute citizens started to demand priorities that focus on anything except tax cuts for rich folks.

https://rabble.ca/blogs/bloggers/alberta-diary/2020/09/albertas-bad-econ...

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Tyee Poll: What Do You Want Candidates to Be Discussing as They Compete for Votes This Election?

Quote:

It’s a big month in politics for British Columbians.

Only two days before the federal throne speech marking the end to the proroguing of Parliament last month, and a week after the announcement of a new BC Green leader — the BC NDP has called a provincial election.

British Columbians will be asked to head to the polls again on Oct. 24.

As the signs of a snap election became clear, elected representatives and voices across B.C. expressed both their frustration and optimism. But now that we know a provincial election is happening, we can move toward what we want to learn about important B.C. issues before we get there. With this in mind, we want to ask:

What do you want candidates to be discussing as they compete for votes this election?

* Please note that all poll answers will be publicly viewable, but anonymous.

 

jerrym

While the NDP promised more financial aid for postsecondary students  and create more postsecondary spaces today the Liberals promised to ban homeless camps (not homelessness) and ban unsafe roadside panhandling. 

 The Liberal promises sound like they came right out of the Conservative handbook - oh! I forgot they are predominantly federal Conservatives.

BC NDP leader John Horgan was in Vancouver to announce plans to expand the BC Access Grant for post-secondary students if re-elected.

The program would include more financial support for eligible students, and more students would be eligible to access as much as $4,000 a year to help pay for tuition, textbooks, and supplies. ...

He also pledged to create an additional 2,000 spaces at post-secondary institutions across B.C. in technology-related programs.

“To build a recovery that’s felt by everyone, we will invest in training young people for the opportunities of today and the future,” said Horgan, referring to recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.

“These new spaces will give more students the access to the skills needed to succeed in B.C.’s growing tech sector.”

Also in Vancouver, BC Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson released part of his much anticipated plan on community safety and tent cities. ...

Wilkinson has spent much of the campaign so far focused on the issue and is committing to end homeless camps in city parks.

The courts have ruled multiple times that governments cannot legally ban the activity, however. ...

A BC Liberal government would work more closely with municipalities, police and community organizations to focus on restricting the camping, enforcing the ban on unsafe roadside panhandling, and exploring alternatives to mental health and substance calls.

https://globalnews.ca/news/7372189/bc-election-post-secondary-tent-city/

jerrym

The latest poll by Leger is similar to previous polls: it shows the NDP at 47% with a 16% lead over the Liberals who have 31% while the Greens have 12% and the Cons 9%, Someone Else <1%.

If the provincial election were held today the BC NDP would capture the most popular votes (47%) followed by the BC Liberal Party (31%) among decided voters.

❑ This is a significant improvement for the NDP and a deterioration for the Liberal Party compared to the 2017 results where both parties captured just over 40% of the vote.

❑ Both the NDP and Liberal Party have more committed voters; about two-thirds (69% and 65% respectively) are not likely to switch their vote to another party.

Early Election Call & Implications

Half (49%) of all respondents oppose Premier Horgan calling an election at this time.

❑ Even among those that would vote NDP one-third (32%) oppose this early election call.
❑ Overall, one-quarter (26%) of all respondents say they are less likely to vote for Premier Horgan and the NDP due to the calling of an election at this time. This proportion is much lower among those that state they would vote NDP (6%).

Impression of Leaders

John Horgan has the most favourable impression among the three main Party leaders active in this election.

❑ Over half (57%) of British Columbians have a favourable impression of John Horgan.
❑ Only one-third (34%) have a favourable impression of Andrew Wilkinson.
❑ Half (49%) of respondents do not know enough about Sonia Furstenau to have an opinion.

Most Important Issue

The two most important issues that have been raised in this election are getting BC’s economy growing after the pandemic and managing the health and safety of people during the pandemic (22% and 20% selecting respectively).

❑ The next two most important issues are the cost of living pressure on families (16%) and addressing the high cost of housing in BC (13% selecting).

❑ Overall, John Horgan and the BC NDP are felt to have the best plan to address peoples priority issue (33% chose NDP). ❑Half as many (16%) chose Andrew Wilkinson and the BC Liberal Party as having the best plan to address their most important priority. One-quarter of respondents say they don’t know which party has the best plan with 11% stating none do.

Majority vs. Minority

Half (49%) of British Columbians feel a majority government would be better able to deal with the current COVID-19 pandemic situation in BC.

❑ One in five (21%) feel a minority government would be better to deal with the current situation while 30% say they don't know which type of government would be better.

https://leger360.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Leger-Provincial-Politic...

kropotkin1951

The BC Liberals, United Conservatives of Alberta and Saskatchewan Party are all controlled by the oil and gas and mining sectors. The party name is meaningless they are the same class of exploiters across the West.

kropotkin1951

I live in Mid-Island Pacific Rim which is an NDP stronghold and not likely to change. North Island is one to watch if you want the Greens to do well, since Alexandra Morton is running for the Green's, however it is also a safe NDP seat.

The NDP needs to win in key seats in the Lower Mainland. Jumping the gun has not bothered the electorate so they are likely going to win a majority.

Because they called a surprise election the business community (oil and gas and mining) did not get a chance to run two months of non stop negative ads right up until the third party advertising rules for elections kick in. So the campaign has not really seen the overt negativity that poisons elections called on fixed elections date. Another stupid US electoral idea that only suits big business.

Secondly though the BC NDP is slimy so they called a snap election with a far shorter time frame than was allowed and purposefully caught the Green's with a new leader and no candidates nominated and less than two weeks to file papers. It was nothing personal since that is the same way they treat party members who are not in the circle.

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Ecosocialist Party pulls all candidates from the provincial election

Quote:

All candidates from the new BC Ecosocialists have been pulled from running for the party in the upcoming provincial election, Executive Director Ashwini Manohar told The Northern View on Oct. 1.

A candidate for the North Coast riding was never announced and the neighbouring riding of Stikine will lose Edward Quinlan, the party’s regional director for the Skeena and Bulkley Valley regions, as an electoral candidate for the party.

“We have pulled all of our candidates. They will be running as either independents or candidates for other parties,” Manohar said.

While Manohar wouldn’t elaborate on reasons why the party was rescinding all candidates, she did say a public statement was in the process of being written and may possibly be released on Oct. 2.

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Quote:
Secondly though the BC NDP is slimy so they called a snap election with a far shorter time frame than was allowed and purposefully caught the Green's with a new leader and no candidates nominated and less than two weeks to file papers. It was nothing personal since that is the same way they treat party members who are not in the circle.

The snap election call erfectly suits the BC NDP's desire to ensure that only insider candidates get to stand for the NDP nomination in most ridings.

[sarcasm]Just what we need. More candidates who support the oil and gas sector.[/sarcasm]

Ken Burch

Left Turn wrote:

Ecosocialist Party pulls all candidates from the provincial election

Quote:

All candidates from the new BC Ecosocialists have been pulled from running for the party in the upcoming provincial election, Executive Director Ashwini Manohar told The Northern View on Oct. 1.

A candidate for the North Coast riding was never announced and the neighbouring riding of Stikine will lose Edward Quinlan, the party’s regional director for the Skeena and Bulkley Valley regions, as an electoral candidate for the party.

“We have pulled all of our candidates. They will be running as either independents or candidates for other parties,” Manohar said.

While Manohar wouldn’t elaborate on reasons why the party was rescinding all candidates, she did say a public statement was in the process of being written and may possibly be released on Oct. 2.

A couple of possibilities occur to me:

1) They've been damaged far more deeply than we knew by the issues involving their former interim leader;

2) The BC Greens have been able to absorb most of the support the Ecosocialists might have gained.

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Ken Burch wrote:

A couple of possibilities occur to me:

1) They've been damaged far more deeply than we knew by the issues involving their former interim leader;

2) The BC Greens have been able to absorb most of the support the Ecosocialists might have gained.

It's probably #1, that because most of their provincial council is still defending Stuart Parker no one was willing to run for them.

I've heard through the grapevine that they are planning to release a statement later today.

jerrym

Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson, the man who was quoted "calling renting a “wacky time of life,” “fun,” “enjoyable” and a “rite of passage” during prepared remarks in the legislature" in 2019, continued his tone-deaf approach to the BC housing crisis today, by saying he would end BC's speculation tax on housing "which adds a surcharge on homes left vacant more than six months in key parts of the province, including Metro Vancouver. Instead, he proposes a new capital gains tax on flipping condo presales. NDP Leader John Horgan, though, said the tax has encouraged owners to put their properties up for rent, improving vacancy rates." 

While the NDP needs to do a lot more to deal with the housing crisis, there is some evidence the speculation tax has made a significant different in the housing market. 

A 2020 Canada Mortgage and Housing report found 11,118 existing condos in Metro Vancouver were turned into rentals in 2019, and one of the report’s authors said the timing of this change coincides with the speculation tax and other new housing regulations. However, the CHMC report also found tight vacancy rates and skyrocketing rents continued in 2019. The data-collection website rentseeker.caagreed, finding Vancouver had the highest rental rates of all Canadian cities in 2020, and the numbers had worsened since 2019. However, another website, padmapper.com, found Vancouver rents did drop in August, by as much as 2.9 per cent for a one-bedroom. ...

The City of Vancouver has a similar empty homes tax and reported in February the number of properties declared vacant in 2019 had gone down 14.6 per cent from 2018. “We’re returning more empty homes to the rental market,” declared Mayor Kennedy Stewart. The city also says the tax’s revenues have been used to buy affordable housing buildings.

Paul Kershaw, a professor in UBC’s school of population and public health, said “the jury remains out” on the effectiveness of the speculation tax on its own. But, he argued, you can’t say it is a failure just because housing isn’t instantly more affordable, noting not even a global recession has brought Vancouver’s home prices down. He argues several policies, including the speculation tax, will need to work in unison to ultimately improve affordability.

“I don’t understand the evidence driving the provincial Liberal party to make this call,” Kershaw said.

https://vancouversun.com/news/politics/bc-election/b-c-election-reality-...

jerrym

The latest poll from Mainstreet/338 shows the NDP lead down 5% from 16% to 11%, with the NDP down 2% 45%, the Liberals up 3% to 34%, and the Greens up 4% to 16%. However, the sampling dates show considerable overlap with Mainstreet being from September 26-29 while Leger was from September 24-28, so some of the difference may be differences in who was sampled or sampling noise, in addition to any change in popularity. 

Among decided voters, the NDP receives 45 per cent support, which should—theoretically—be enough for John Horgan to win his coveted majority:


The B.C. Liberals sit at 34 per cent of decided voters, 11 points behind the NDP. The Greens stand at 16 per cent, close to their 2017 total (although the Greens did run 83 candidates in 2017).

We add this newest poll to the 338Canada British Columbia model with other recent B.C. surveys published since the writ was drawn up (see all B.C. polls here), and project the NDP winning an average of 55 seats:


The B.C. Liberals win an average of 30 seats according to this projection. The threshold for a majority in Victoria is 44 seats. In the 2017 general election, the Liberals won 43 seats and the NDP 41 seats. The balance of power went to the Greens, which won the three remaining seats in the legislature.

Here are the seat projection probability densities: the higher the bars, the more likely the outcome. We notice on the graph below that the Liberals and NDP curves barely overlap. In fact, according to these numbers, the odds of a near-tie in the seat count are similar to those of an NDP rout (65+ seats).

In short, the B.C. Liberals are in trouble. Over the 100,000 general election simulations performed by the model, the NDP wins 96 per cent of the time (or 24 out of every 25 simulations), including a majority of seats in 94 per cent of simulations:

Of course, many things may happen in the span of three weeks and, for those who remember the 2013 B.C. election, we know that polls could be off by a handful of points. Nevertheless, considering the high satisfaction levels of John Horgan’s handling of the pandemic (as measured weekly by Léger since April), such a polling error seems highly unlikely at the moment. To wit, in the latest Léger poll released on Tuesday, 80 per cent of British Columbia voters remain satisfiedwith Horgan’ handling of the pandemic, the highest among all premiers in Canada.

 

The demographic breakdown of the poll shows the NDP leading or statistically tied with the Liberals in all age groups, including a 17-point lead in the 35-49 year old bracket and a 10-point lead in the 50-64 year old bracket. Moreover, although the Liberals and NDP are tied among male voters, the NDP enjoys a considerable 23-point lead among female voters.

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/338canada-exclusive-poll-the-b-c-ndps-c...

 

Ken Burch

jerrym wrote:

The latest poll from Mainstreet/338 shows the NDP lead down 5% from 16% to 11%, with the NDP down 2% 45%, the Liberals up 3% to 34%, and the Greens up 4% to 16%. However, the sampling dates show considerable overlap with Mainstreet being from September 26-29 while Leger was from September 24-28, so some of the difference may be differences in who was sampled or sampling noise, in addition to any change in popularity. 

Among decided voters, the NDP receives 45 per cent support, which should—theoretically—be enough for John Horgan to win his coveted majority:


The B.C. Liberals sit at 34 per cent of decided voters, 11 points behind the NDP. The Greens stand at 16 per cent, close to their 2017 total (although the Greens did run 83 candidates in 2017).

We add this newest poll to the 338Canada British Columbia model with other recent B.C. surveys published since the writ was drawn up (see all B.C. polls here), and project the NDP winning an average of 55 seats:


The B.C. Liberals win an average of 30 seats according to this projection. The threshold for a majority in Victoria is 44 seats. In the 2017 general election, the Liberals won 43 seats and the NDP 41 seats. The balance of power went to the Greens, which won the three remaining seats in the legislature.

Here are the seat projection probability densities: the higher the bars, the more likely the outcome. We notice on the graph below that the Liberals and NDP curves barely overlap. In fact, according to these numbers, the odds of a near-tie in the seat count are similar to those of an NDP rout (65+ seats).

In short, the B.C. Liberals are in trouble. Over the 100,000 general election simulations performed by the model, the NDP wins 96 per cent of the time (or 24 out of every 25 simulations), including a majority of seats in 94 per cent of simulations:

Of course, many things may happen in the span of three weeks and, for those who remember the 2013 B.C. election, we know that polls could be off by a handful of points. Nevertheless, considering the high satisfaction levels of John Horgan’s handling of the pandemic (as measured weekly by Léger since April), such a polling error seems highly unlikely at the moment. To wit, in the latest Léger poll released on Tuesday, 80 per cent of British Columbia voters remain satisfiedwith Horgan’ handling of the pandemic, the highest among all premiers in Canada.

 

The demographic breakdown of the poll shows the NDP leading or statistically tied with the Liberals in all age groups, including a 17-point lead in the 35-49 year old bracket and a 10-point lead in the 50-64 year old bracket. Moreover, although the Liberals and NDP are tied among male voters, the NDP enjoys a considerable 23-point lead among female voters.

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/338canada-exclusive-poll-the-b-c-ndps-c...

 

The worst news for the BC Liberals in that poll is that the BC Cons are already down to 2% among declared voters- suggesting that there are limits to the number of "pull together to kick the socialist barbarians back out through the gates" voters the Liberals can add to the total.

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Here's the full list of candidates on the Elections BC website. Deadline to file nomination papers to run as a candidate was Fri. Oct 2.
https://elections.bc.ca/provincial-elections/provincial-candidates/candi...

 

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Statement posted today on the BC Ecosocialist Party website

BC Ecosocialists Pull Candidates Ahead of Election

Quote:

Protecting candidates a priority amid allegations of transphobia

Sunday, October 4th, 2020 - VANCOUVER - The BC Ecosocialist Party has this week pulled all of its candidates ahead of the provincial election amid allegations of transphobia levied against the party by a former director. 

"Since interim leader Stuart Parker stepped down after a screenshot of an alleged transphobic comment went viral on social media, we have faced demands to denounce him and apologize for his personal views," stated executive director Ashwini Manohar. "This week a former director called for the entire provincial council to step down as the failure of the party to condemn Parker is being read as endorsement of his position. On advice of counsel, we have chosen not to issue personal denouncements and expose ourselves to liability for ascribing beliefs to Parker he vehemently denies having. Parker's personal views on gender have nothing to do with our current gender equity policy, which was written collaboratively by women and trans people. He is no longer involved with the party in any meaningful way. However, given the nature of the allegations and to prevent our candidates from further attack and reputational damage, we have elected not to field any candidates. It is also our view that we will not build a broad-based egalitarian party if we permit it to be used to settle personal scores between individuals whose interpersonal issues predate the party's existence by decades," Manohar added. 

"We denounce transphobia in the strongest possible terms and affirm that it has no place in our party. As socialists, we are committed to equity and to fighting for the rights of people who have been marginalized by mainstream society. We have welcomed the involvement of 2SLBTQQIA people in the party, many of whom have participated in the policy writing process and hold positions on provincial council. In fact, we were still working together to review and update our policies and were about to begin community consultations when the election was called," said policy chair and party spokesperson Deanna Drschiwiski. "I'd like to encourage everyone to review our current gender equity policy for themselves and compare it to those offered by other parties. Let's include everyone in this conversation. The best possible outcome is one where all the parties take a strong stance against transphobia and gender inequity and specify the changes they would make to improve the lives of 2SLGBTQQIA people across BC."

"Building an explicitly socialist party is no easy feat, and one too that is run almost entirely by volunteers. Horgan's unnecessary and irresponsible snap election sent us all reeling - in the pressures of rising to the formidable task of fielding a full slate of candidates, we had to stop planning for our membership convention set to take place in November, and rush to finish the work on our policy document and solidify organizational structure. These allegations have taken the wind out of our sails, certainly, but the work we're doing is vitally important and will continue in the coming months. The party is committed to making the membership convention its next priority after the election," said Manohar.

Ken Burch

So...the BC Ecosocialists win the award for Worst Provincial Election Campaign Launch of All Time.

Good on them for protecting their candidates and finally, in that way, making some sort of stand against transphobia...but, if the new party survives this(and BC desperately needs it that party to recover and prepare itself for the next go-round) it has a lot of work to do to make sure no mistake of this magnitude is ever repeated.

Questions that must now be asked:

What means were used to chose the interim leader? 

Was anyone else considered for the job? 

How the hell do they make sure nobody like this gets anywhere close to even the interim leadership?

And, for that matter, once the guy stood down, why didn't they immediately chose ANOTHER leader who would not have characteristics this damaging?

 

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Ken Burch wrote:
What means were used to chose the interim leader?

I think I read (either in the article in The Tyee on this matter, or on Geoff Berner's fb post denouncing their provincial council for not denouncing Sutart Parker) that Parker was chosen as interim leader by a vote of the provincial council.

Ken Burch wrote:
And, for that matter, once the guy stood down, why didn't they immediately chose ANOTHER leader who would not have characteristics this damaging?

Maybe they will chose a new leader at their convention in November (assuming it's still going ahead)?

Mobo2000

Personally not convinced there was any sort of stand against transphobia being made here or that Parker was transphobic.   I also suspect the membership is not united on this issue, which is why they didn't immediately turf Parker and get some else.   Also I think this is telling:  "On advice of counsel, we have chosen not to issue personal denouncements and expose ourselves to liability for ascribing beliefs to Parker he vehemently denies having. "

That said, I really really do not want to reopen any debate on trans rights/transphobia here and am not up for debating the details.   I'm just sad a possible good left wing alternative party is not on the slate now.  

kropotkin1951

Stuart Parker has been an activist for years and claims to respect trans-rights. He wrote a problematic blog where he tries to talk philosophically about the intersection of gender and personality and he also came to the defense of some long standing feminist allies that were under attack for being TERF's. A vocal part of the trans community in Vancouver is very aggressive in attacks on any one who questions their right to access all women only spaces. At the same time a different part of their community enjoys a trans only beauty contest. No disconnect in our modern world.

 

kropotkin1951

In the meantime in my riding the NDP is running an excellent candidate I will not vote for because I will not vote for the lesser of evils when the evil includes Site C and Coast Gas. The Green's are running a weak candidate with no change of success. I thought I was going to spoil my ballot but I am now considering voting for the Independent. this is a bit of a rant but it lines up with my experience of social service delivery in BC.

For the past 16 years, I’ve worked within the Port Alberni non-profit sector and for 16 years I have seen people in our community have less and less available to them. From health and education to things like backroad access, I believe most of our government and non-profit services are mismanaged – and it needs to be investigated, exposed and changed. The crisis of criminal negligence needs to be addressed.

No one in our community is getting the support services they need. Our high school no longer has certified counsellors available to our youth due to arbitrary contract changes made by some minister’s whim. Children with suspected developmental disabilities or learning delays are not eligible for assessment and diagnosis until third grade. Upon diagnosis, there is still a vast shortage of qualified professionals available to help them or their parents. In our schools, not even the basics are being provided—I just received an email from a parent who is scared and angry because they say a local elementary school reopened without appropriate hand-washing facilities in every classroom.

https://www.bclocalnews.com/news/bc-votes-2020-independent-candidate-gra...

 

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Watching John Horgan's livestream right now. He was talking about getting to net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 through a combination of electrification of transport, and innovation to take greenhouse gasses out of the air. Predictably said nothing about fracking and LNG that is responsible for virtually all of the increase in greenhouse gas emissions over the life of his government. Myself and others called him out on it in the chat.

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Kropotkin1951 wrote:
Stuart Parker has been an activist for years and claims to respect trans-rights. He wrote a problematic blog where he tries to talk philosophically about the intersection of gender and personality and he also came to the defense of some long standing feminist allies that were under attack for being TERF's. A vocal part of the trans community in Vancouver is very aggressive in attacks on any one who questions their right to access all women only spaces. At the same time a different part of their community enjoys a trans only beauty contest. No disconnect in our modern world.

There was a "I Heart JK Rowling" billboard that was put up in the Downtown eastside back in August. JK Rowling is widely considered at TERF because she thinks that talk therapy might be better for young people than gential surgery (which leaves people sterile).

The billboard was defaced with the word "TERF" in large black letters, and was subsequently removed due to the controvery over it. Judy Graves (who ran for with OneCity Vancouver for Vancouver city council in the 2017 by-election), posted on social media in support of the billboard. This led to a viscious campaign to get Judy Graves fired from her current job.

Stuart Parker denounced this campaign to get Judy Graves fired in a comment on one of his fb friends posts on September 12th. It came to light after Green Party of Canada Meryam Haddad posted on social media in support of the BC Ecosocialist Party. It's Parker's fb comment that was the main point of contention. Parker's blog posts about the intersection of gender and personality were then brought up as evidence that Parker's fb comment was transphobic. Parker claims it was merely a defence of Judy Graves.

Aristotleded24

Give Wilkinson credit for being honest on this one:

Quote:

B.C. Liberal Leader Andrew Wilkinson said, if elected, his government would end ICBC's monopoly on auto insurance in British Columbia and open the market to competition for all forms of the insurance.

Wilkinson said the change would mean drivers could "shop around," choosing to buy vehicle damage insurance and bodily injury insurance from the private market or to stick with the ICBC model.

"A consistent theme we hear in this campaign is that people are really fed up with ICBC," Wilkinson said during a campaign stop on Tuesday. "The ICBC monopoly has been a failure."

Wilkinson said a B.C. Liberal government would introduce lower premiums for young drivers, ensuring those drivers get two years' credit or — if they complete a driving education course — four years' credit. The change would lead to "significantly" lower premiums for young drivers with a clean driving history, he said.

He said private brokers would be able to offer a range of products for customers to choose from, just as with home insurance or life insurance — and similarly to the system used in Saskatchewan.

ICBC has held a monopoly on car insurance in B.C. for 46 years. Its finances have been ubiquitously described as "a dumpster fire" in recent years, though politicians disagree and point fingers over which party is to blame.

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

NDP Promises $1,000 Family Grant, Rent Freeze and Aid for Tenants

Quote:

BC NDP Leader John Horgan released his party’s election platform today, promising pandemic relief payments of $1,000 per family, a freeze on rent increases until the end of 2021 and a new medical school.

“We all know that COVID-19 has challenged and changed British Columbia,” Horgan said at the morning announcement at a Vancouver hotel. “People are looking to a future that is uncertain.... They want to ensure their government is focused on them.”

The Recovery Benefit for British Columbians would be a one-time payment of $1,000 to families with annual incomes up to $125,000. Households making more than that would receive smaller amounts, phased out at incomes of $175,000. Individuals earning up to $62,000 would get $500, with smaller amounts for those making up to $87,000 a year.

“The package will cost about $1.4 billion and that’s putting money into the pockets of those families who need it the most,” Horgan said. “Those are the people who are struggling right now, those are the people who need to have those extra dollars to make sure they can get by, not just through the pandemic but into the recovery period.”

Helping people who need it makes more sense than cutting taxes for those who are already wealthy as the BC Liberals would do, he said. “They’ll put this money right back into the community, investing in small businesses, making purchases that will stimulate other economic activity.”

The Tyee is supported by readers like you

 

Join us and grow independent media in Canada

By Horgan’s count, the platform makes 154 commitments, 60 of which are new, with “the rest building on the work we’ve already started.”

A re-elected NDP government would create more child-care spaces, make transit free for kids under 12 years old, improve cancer care, work towards decriminalizing simple possession of small amounts of illicit drugs for personal use and make prescription contraception free.

It would phase out single-use plastics, take the PST off electric bikes and offer incentives based on income for people to buy electric vehicles.

The minimum wage would be tied to inflation, and the government would develop a strategy to give people in precarious work and the gig economy more stability, including by developing new employment standards and ensuring every worker has the right to join a union.

There are promises to set up a secretariat to oversee making the province’s laws and policies consistent with the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, work with the BC Human Rights Commissioner on legislation allowing the collection of race-based data, and consult with stakeholders with a goal of introducing a new anti-racism act.

An NDP government would also renew its promise of a rebate for renters, this time offering $400 a year for households earning up to $80,000 who are not already receiving other support for their rent. It would also freeze rents until the end of 2021, then cap them at the rate of inflation after that.

“We’ve always felt that a renters’ rebate was an appropriate way to go forward,” Horgan said, noting that homeowners already get grants to reduce their property taxes.

“Renters should have access to public dollars as well,” he said. “We looked at it and felt having a means test was an appropriate way to go forward.... We wanted to focus this, as we have with other initiatives in this platform, on the people who need it the most.”

There’s also a promise to open a second medical school to train more doctors, nurse practitioners, nurses and other health professionals. Horgan said the government would be talking with the province’s post-secondary institutions to decide where it would best fit.

Horgan said the platform’s four main themes are creating a more affordable province for everyone, lasting and meaningful reconciliation with Indigenous people, fighting climate change to ensure a better future and putting workers and small businesses at the front of economic recovery.

Mazdak on Twitter

Mazdak wrote:
15% of rental households who built up rent debt over pandemic, tens of thousands of our most vulnerable, will not be enjoying a "rent freeze" this year. They're hit with an unprecedented increase in rent in the form of "repayment plans". No solutions from any parties #bcpoli

Also of note, the platform includes no plan to stop fracking, which has produced the overwhelming source of new emissions over the life of Horgan's government. It also fails to reconcile the NDP's support for UNDRIP with it's support for the Coastal Gaslink Pipeline, and it fails to provide a plan to stop TMX, and fails to halt the Site C dam. All of which make meaningful implementation of UNDRIP impossible.

jerrym

There's a new poll from Angus Reid showing the NDP continuing to have a large lead of 18%, with the NDP at 49%, the Liberals at 31% and the Greens at 14%, Other parties 5%. The average of the last four polls is NDP 48%, Libs 32% and Greens 13.5%, so little has changed so far. 

While its COVID-19 response continues to preoccupy the province most, matters that took precedence before the pandemic are also dominant. Housing affordability, health care, climate change, and economic growth are also ballot issues in this campaign.

But traditional differences highlight the perceived strengths and weaknesses of each party on these key issues. While the New Democrats are seen as best on social and health issues, the BC Greens continue to hold high ground on climate change, and the BC Liberals are deemed to be the strongest party on economic factors. ...

  • The incumbent BC NDP currently holds an 18-point advantage in pre-debate vote intention. 49 per cent say the will support John Horgan’s party, while 31 per cent say they will vote for the BC Liberals and 14 per cent the BC Greens. This dynamic is largely unchanged over the past month.

Among different age and gender demographics, unique priorities emerge. For young people (18-34), while COVID-19 is important, housing affordability, and climate change take on heightened priority.

Those between the ages of 35 and 54 put near-equal emphasis on the top four issues, but men in this cohort are most likely of any group to say that economic growth is paramount to them. For potential voters 55 years of age and older, health care is the story of this campaign, though other issues still resonate, as seen in the summary table below:

....

The BC NDP’s strength is its breadth of appeal. In every age and gender category, it holds a lead and dominates among women of all ages.

http://angusreid.org/bc-election-top-issues/

Ken Burch

jerrym wrote:

There's a new poll from Angus Reid showing the NDP continuing to have a large lead of 18%, with the NDP at 49%, the Liberals at 31% and the Greens at 14%, Other parties 5%. The average of the last four polls is NDP 48%, Libs 32% and Greens 13.5%, so little has changed so far. 

While its COVID-19 response continues to preoccupy the province most, matters that took precedence before the pandemic are also dominant. Housing affordability, health care, climate change, and economic growth are also ballot issues in this campaign.

But traditional differences highlight the perceived strengths and weaknesses of each party on these key issues. While the New Democrats are seen as best on social and health issues, the BC Greens continue to hold high ground on climate change, and the BC Liberals are deemed to be the strongest party on economic factors. ...

  • The incumbent BC NDP currently holds an 18-point advantage in pre-debate vote intention. 49 per cent say the will support John Horgan’s party, while 31 per cent say they will vote for the BC Liberals and 14 per cent the BC Greens. This dynamic is largely unchanged over the past month.

Among different age and gender demographics, unique priorities emerge. For young people (18-34), while COVID-19 is important, housing affordability, and climate change take on heightened priority.

Those between the ages of 35 and 54 put near-equal emphasis on the top four issues, but men in this cohort are most likely of any group to say that economic growth is paramount to them. For potential voters 55 years of age and older, health care is the story of this campaign, though other issues still resonate, as seen in the summary table below:

....

The BC NDP’s strength is its breadth of appeal. In every age and gender category, it holds a lead and dominates among women of all ages.

http://angusreid.org/bc-election-top-issues/

If the BC Libs aren't even winning the "men over 55" demographic, they are in bad trouble.

Is there going to be a leaders debate at some point?

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Ken Burch wrote:
Is there going to be a leaders debate at some point?

B.C. Green, NDP and Liberal leaders set for televised debate

Quote:
The leaders of British Columbia's three main political parties will meet face-to-face in a televised debate on Oct. 13.

A consortium of broadcasters will televise the 90-minute debate starting at 6:30 p.m. featuring NDP Leader John Horgan, B.C. Liberal Leader Andrew Wilkinson and Sonia Furstenau of the Greens.

Quote:

A debate has also been announced between the parties on climate change and the economy in an online forum on Thursday.

New Democrat candidate George Heyman, the B.C. Liberals' Peter Milobar and Green candidate Adam Olsen will represent their parties. The online debate is presented by the Pembina Institute, a non-profit organization advocating for clean energy, and Catalyst Business Alliance, a group of Canadian companies that support a cleaner economy.

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

B.C. NDP, Liberals, and Greens agree to election debate on climate and economy

Quote:
VANCOUVER / MUSQUEAM, SQUAMISH & TSLEIL-WAUTUTH TERRITORIES — Prominent candidates from B.C.’s three major political parties will face questions about the future of climate action and the economy at a public online forum on October 8.

Presented by the Catalyst Business Alliance and Pembina Institute, B.C.’s Climate, Economy, and the 2020 Election will feature George Heyman (B.C. NDP), Peter Milobar (B.C. Liberal Party), and Adam Olsen (B.C. Green Party).

During the lunch-hour event, the trio of politicians will take questions from a panel of B.C. business leaders, as well as the audience. 

The public and media are invited to attend online or by phone. Registration (free) is required.

B.C.’s Climate, Economy, and the 2020 Election: Candidates Forum

Presented by the Catalyst Business Alliance and Pembina Institute

Date: Thursday, October 8, 2020

Time: 12 p.m.–1 p.m. PDT

Candidates:

  • George Heyman, B.C. NDP (Vancouver-Fairview)
  • Peter Milobar, B.C. Liberal Party (Kamloops-North Thompson)
  • Adam Olsen, B.C. Green Party (Saanich North and the Islands)

Panellists:

  • Patrick Nangle, CEO, Modo Co-operative
  • Anna Stukas, vice president, business development, Carbon Engineering
  • Julia Balabanowicz, director, government relations, Innergex Renewable Energy
  • Chris Heysel, environmental impact lead, Arc’teryx

Moderator: Karen Tam Wu, co-chair, Catalyst Business Alliance

Sign up: pembina.org/BCElectionForum

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Here's my notes from the BC election debate on "Climate, The Economy and the 2020 Election", held earlier today.

The three main parties were represented by the following people:

Peter Milobar B.C. Liberals
George Heyman B.C. NDP
Adam Olsen B.C. Green Party

I didn't write down any of the questions, instead I just wrote down as many of the points they made as I could.

Peter Milobar (BC Liberals)
-- Blasted NDP for calling election
-- Blased NDP for not commiting to energy independence
-- Claimed that NDPs plan will increase imports of “brown” energy
-- Emissions have gone up every year under NDP
-- Resource industries still an important part of economy
-- Talked about making BCs resource industries more green
-- Blasted NDPs “Clean BC” plan
-- Blasted NDP for lack on consultation with indigenous nations on energy issues
-- Blasted NDP for not addressing the used car market in their plan to increase adoption of electric vehicles (EVs)
-- Want a plan to make Evs more feasible for people who use vehicles mainly for shorter trips
-- Called Green Party hypocritical for saying they oppose LNG but then voting in fabor of NDP budgets that increase subsidies to LNG
-- Talked about need to mitigate emissions from LNG
-- BC is only 0.1% of global emissions
-- Need a plan to mitigate sea level rise
-- Carbon tax should go to climate mitigation measures, not general revenue
-- Opposes hard emission targets for business because of the pandemic
-- Need proper broadband and cell service in smaller communities so they can diversify their economies

George Heyman
- Praised Gordon Campbell's implementation of carbon tax,
-- Blasted Christy Clark for doing nothing further to reduce emissions
-- talked about NDPs increase to carbon tax as most effective plan to combat climate change
-- Talked about how NDP has a plan to reduce greenhouse gasses
-- Talked about NDPs plan to make BC carbon neutral by 2050
-- Making home retrofits more affordable
-- Encouraging the development of made in BC technologies to reduce emissions
-- Plan to make BCs public transportation more green
-- Want to make BC trucking industry more green
-- Want to promote engineering technologies to take carbon out of atmospheree and sequester it
-- Plan to encourage partnerships with indigenous peoples that will reduce emissions
-- Plan to create an energy secretariat to review all relevant legislation
-- Promoted NDPs rebate plan for EVs
-- Promoted plan to extend Skytain in Surrey
-- NDP will require that every LNG projects must show how it fits into BCs climate plan before it can go ahead
-- NDP to include mitigation in it's climate plan. Talked about coastal clean up, habitat restoration, watershed sustainability plan, community resiliency fund
-- NDP has collaborated with Greens, not been dragged kicking and screaming as Adam claims
-- NDPs increase in carbon tax is most effective climate mitigation measure
-- NDP budgeted 90 million to expand broadband and cell service to every corner of the province

Adam Olsen
-- Urgent need to drastically decarbonize
-- Blasted NDP and Liberals for voting in favour of LNG
-- Blasted NDP for their support of fracking, LNG and clearcut logging
-- Arges that the NDPs “Clean BC” plan is nothing more than a communications strategy
-- Referred to oil and gas as 1950s technologies
-- Need to stop subsidizing fossil fuels, want investments in clean energy
-- Claims that all NDP emission reduction policies are green policies that the NDP adopted
-- Blasted the NDP for the “Clean Enrgy Act Ammendment Act”, which started to undo the NDPs commitment to clean energy.
-- Need to move away from single occupancy vehicles towards transit
-- Want mobility pricing to fund transit improvements
-- BC can't develop LNG and meet it's climate targets
-- BC Liberals and BC NDP together voted 14 times to bring LNG to BC
-- BC NDP supercharged Liberals support for LNG
-- Blasted NDP for not implementing species at risk legislation. Says that species at risk legislation is a odds with NDPs commitment to frakcing, logging and dredging.
-- Need to rein in heavy emitters. Need to end subsidies to oil and gas.
-- Need options for British Columbians in rural and remote communities to reduce their emissions

Ken Burch

In short...who lotta blastin' goin' on.

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Post deleted

jerrym

Here's a look at the NDP's record on childcare, both good and bad. While the NDP has provided more funding and promised more than the other parties, it has not significantly raised wages in this grossly underpaid sector, did enough on developing indigenous programs although it has promises in that regard, and given to much funding to private sector firms that could underfund programs or sell later sell them off at a profit. 

Gregson, spokesperson for the Coalition of Child Care Advocates of BC, a non-partisan organization advocating for the $10 a Day Child Care Plan, says she’s just stating facts. The NDP government invested more in child-care spaces, costs and wages in the last 3.5 years than the previous BC Liberal government did, she said.

“We have seen progress on all three fronts, which are affordability for families, new space creation and improved wages for educators,” said Gregson. “They stabilized and/or improved on each of those.”

Since forming government, the NDP has spent $2 billion on child care, the largest investment in B.C. history, according to the Early Childhood Educators of BC. ...

The money provided capital funding for over 24,500 new licensed child-care spaces for infants to 12-year-olds; expanded Aboriginal Head Start programs in both Indigenous communities and urban areas; funded a $2-an-hour wage top up for educators; enrolled 53,000 families in an income benefit program for child care, which saw 32,700 of those families paying less than $10 a day for care; and subsidized child-care fees for another 63,000 families by $350 per month. ...

“That is an improvement from when the BC Liberals were in power and fees were rising at more than the rate of inflation,” Gregson said. The government is three years into its 10-year plan to provide universal $10-a-day care, which the NDP pledged to implement during the 2017 campaign. 

Under the BC Liberal government, the focus was on child-care subsidies for parents, which were capped at $550 a month — an amount that had not changed since 2005. 

Under the NDP, subsidies can go as high as $1,250 per month.

In 2016/17, the last year the Liberals were in power, subsidies were provided for 32,000 families, Gregson notes. 

But there’s plenty of room for improvement and even to criticize the NDP’s handling of child care, advocates say.

 Gregson notes capital funding has gone not only to public child-care providers but also to private for-profit centres and to not-for-profit organizations. The coalition wants public money to fund public child-care spaces.

“If I’m a private, for-profit operator and I get a grant for $250,000, I can use that as a down payment on a piece of property. And then once my operating agreement is over, I own that asset and I can sell it and make a profit from that,” she said.

“Whereas if it’s a public asset like a school, even if the principal retires, the school continues operating and remains as a school for the next principal to come along and operate.”

The NDP election platform does promise more public child-care spaces operated by schools, Crown corporations, local governments, First Nations and post-secondary institutions. 

But the party also promises to support more private sector developers in including child-care spaces in new office and residential buildings.

Emily Gawlick, executive director of the Early Childhood Educators of BC, said the $2-per-hour wage top up for the province’s early childhood educators is a great start in improving pay and an indication that the NDP take child care seriously.

The median starting wage for an early childhood educator in the province is $18 an hour, although some educators start at the $14.60 minimum wage.

But Gregson and Gawlick want the next government to implement a wage grid developed in collaboration between their two organizations. The starting wage should be $26 an hour as part of an effort to attract and retain staff, Gawlick said.

“Even as government is building spaces, it’s hard for employers to find the necessary qualified people to work in those programs,” she said. Child-care centres are already struggling to find staff, and expansion in the sector will add to the problem.

Gawlick would like to see scholarships for people training to be early childhood educators and professional development opportunities for people already working in the sector. 

The NDP government did increase the number of spaces in childhood educator programs, Gawlick said. She added the programs should be expanded to include on-the-job training with mentors as well as classroom instruction.

Gregson and Gawlick also want to see the $10-a-day prototype sites, which opened in 2018 with 1,800 spots, expanded provincewide.

The NDP government has dedicated $30 million to culturally-appropriate Indigenous child-care spaces in the province since 2018. This helped fund 10 new Aboriginal Head Start centres, with 259 spaces for Indigenous children, while another two centres are funded but not yet open.

Karen Isaac of the BC Aboriginal Child Care Society says there are still communities without access to culturally-appropriate care, as well as barriers to opening new centres like access to training for Indigenous early childhood educators, licensing requirements, need for more funding and a lack of culturally-appropriate standards and regulations.

But Isaac says she wants the NDP to form government again, because it brought the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples into provincial law. 

“Now that there is a process to begin to look at all these facets of Indigenous life, including early learning and child care, we think that a lot of the systemic barriers that exist could be addressed by governments and First Nations working together to recognize jurisdiction,” Isaac said. 

“But not only that: provide the capacity for First Nations to exercise authority [and] decision-making in this area, so that we are providing services that communities want and need at the community. And that could be child care, but it could be other things as well.”

Government child-care policy is “one size fits all,” Isaac added, and it does not recognize the rights of Indigenous people.

While the NDP platform does not mention UNDRIP in its child-care promises, it does pledge long-term agreements for Indigenous self-determination and establishing a secretariat to ensure any new legislation or policies are consistent with UNDRIP. 

While the Liberals have yet to release a full platform, their campaign website addresses child care, pointing out the 24,500 new spaces funded by the NDP government are not all operational yet.

They also make pledges specifically for pandemic child care, including providing adequate PPE through operational funding, ensuring no provider goes bankrupt because of COVID-19, clarifying what “daily screening” means, and producing a comprehensive report on the state of B.C. child care during the pandemic.

The BC Green Party is also still putting its platform together. But in a press release Tuesday they outlined their child-care plan, pledging an additional $223 million in annual funding by 2024/25 to provide more spaces, more training opportunities for early childhood educators, free child care for working parents with children under three, and up to 25 hours of free child care per week for three- and four-year-olds.

Gregson appreciates the child-care promises from the Greens, but says they haven’t pledged enough money to achieve the universal $10 a day plan. 

“I think it’s well-intentioned, but it’s not a very knowledgeable platform about child care, and it’s not costed appropriately,” she said. 

Both the Greens and NDP pledge to move child care from the Ministry of Children and Family Development to the Education Ministry.

Gregson says the NDP has a more detailed plan for achieving universal $10-a-day care than the Greens or the Liberals have released so far.

https://thetyee.ca/News/2020/10/08/Advocates-Rate-NDP-Child-Care-Perform...

jerrym

In the latest poll by Research Co. the NDP matched its average of its last four polls at 48% but increased their vote by 4% compared to last Research Co. poll. The Liberals were up 4% compared to their last four polls but down 1% compared to the last Research Co. poll, while the Greens stayed even at 13%. While Horgan stayed even in approval rating, both Wilkinson and Furstenau declined. Horgan was also the only one to go up in choice for Best Premier, thereby giving him a 20% lead over Wilkinson and a 41% lead over  Furstenau. On issues the NDP and Horgan win the highest percentage on all issues, mostly by 15% to 32%, with the Liberals second, except for environment where the Greens win by 4% over the NDP. 

The 2% for the BC Cons means there is little room for growth for the BC Liberals by grabbing Con voters, a usual pattern in BC elections where the Cons get little coverage, run in few ridings, and where the BC Liberals are primarily federal Conservatives. There was a 1% vote for other parties.

The BC New Democratic Party (NDP) has extended its advantage in British Columbia’s provincial electoral campaign, a new Research Co. poll has found.

In the online survey of a representative provincial sample, 48% of decided voters in British Columbia would cast a ballot for the BC NDP candidate in their constituency, up four points since a similar Research Co. survey conducted in late September.

The BC Liberals remain in second place with 36% (-1), followed by the BC Green Party with 13% (=) and the BC Conservative Party with 2% (-3). 

The BC NDP holds a nine-point edge over the BC Liberals among decided male voters (47% to 38%) and a 16-point lead among decided female voters (49% to 33%).

The New Democrats are also ahead of the BC Liberals among decided voters aged 18-to-34 (45% to 31%), decided voters aged 35-to-54 (46% to 33) and decided voters aged 55 and over (44% to 34%).

Just under one-in-four decided voters (23%) say they may change their mind and support another party’s candidate in the election scheduled for Oct. 24. Supporters of the BC Liberals and the BC NDP are less likely to consider a switch (15% and 20% respectively) than those who plan to vote for the BC Greens (29%).

When asked about the main factor that motivates their selection, 43% of decided voters cite the party’s ideas and policies, while 21% focus mostly on the party’s leader and 14% concentrate on the party’s candidate in the riding. Fewer decided voters in British Columbia are swayed by a desire for stability (11%), a desire for change (10%) or disgust with other contending candidates (4%).

The approval rating for Premier and BC NDP leader John Horgan stands at 65% (-1). The numbers are lower for BC Liberals leader Andrew Wilkinson (40%, +1) and BC Greens leader Sonia Furstenau (33%, -4).

Horgan’s campaign momentum is balanced, with 24% of likely voters in British Columbia saying their opinion of him has improved and 24% stating that it has worsened. In contrast, Wilkinson has a negative momentum score (Improved 16%, Worsened 26%) as does Furstenau (Improved 12%, Worsened 16%).

On the preferred premier question, almost half of likely voters in British Columbia (47%, +3) select Horgan, with Wilkinson at 27% (=) and Furstenau at 6% (-1).

As was the case last month, likely voters in British Columbia are primarily preoccupied with housing, poverty and homelessness (25%, +1), the economy and jobs (also 25%, +4) and health care (23%, -3). Other issues mentioned by likely voters are COVID-19 (8%, -3), the environment (7%, =), crime and public safety (4%, -4), accountability (3%, =), education (1%, =) and energy (1%, +1).

When asked which leader is better suited to handle specific issues, Horgan holds sizeable leads over Wilkinson on COVID-19 (52% to 20%), health care (48% to 24%), education (42% to 23%), the economy and jobs (42% to 30%), housing, poverty and homelessness (40% to 23%), accountability (37% to 28%), crime and public safety (37% to 30%) and energy (34% to 27%).

On the environment, Furstenau is in first place (33%), followed by Horgan with 29% and Wilkinson with 18%.

https://researchco.ca/2020/10/08/bcelxn2020-october/

jerrym

The NDP, unlike 2013 when they went all positive with a 20% lead and lost, are going on the attack, while the Liberals target ads towards the large Chinese and business communities telling them the NDP has added 23 new taxes while increasing crime and homelessness in a province of economic desolation that doesn't match reality. 

Interestingly, the Vancouver local news is really playing up stories of crime and homelessness leading its broadcasts in a way that fits right in with the Liberals ads in a way that it hadn't until recently.  

The NDP election campaign is tapping into people’s urge to protest by launching online petitions opposing key elements of the Liberal platform and in support of taxes on speculators and free contraception.

A petition embedded in a Facebook ad in favour of the popular Speculation and Vacancy Tax — and opposing the Liberals’ pledge to replace it — has collected more than 6,000 digital signatures, according to the NDP campaign. ...

Tearing a page from the opposition playbook, a new set of ads have appeared urging people to sign up in support of Premier John Horgan’s recovery benefit of $1,000 per family or $500 per individual (1,545 signatures) and opposing Liberal bailouts for “big business and the wealthy.”

Petition-style “sign up” buttons also appeared on ads in support of free contraceptives and a rent freeze, both recent additions to the NDP platform.

“This allows them to mobilize a base using a strategy that would be more typical of opposition than government,” said UBC political scientist Max Cameron.

Petition signees give the party their name, email address and phone number, a valuable resource for a party looking to get the vote out.

In the fine print under the sign-up form, the signee is informed that their information may be used to “keep you updated about this and other B.C. NDP activities.”

The NDP’s online campaign is focused, with clear statements about what voters can expect from a Liberal government, while offering clear financial incentives like the recovery benefit if they are re-elected, said Cameron.

“(The NDP) is making arguments about fairness and distribution … and saying this is going to be taken away from you (by a Liberal government), and this is what we’re giving you,” he said. “They’re trying to make it very real in terms of your pocketbook. It’s very pointed and very concrete.”

More than 645,000 British Columbians have requested mail-in ballots that allow them to vote well before election day, but the Liberal campaign has yet to release a complete platform.

Elections B.C. confirmed Friday that mail-in ballots are already coming back.

Toward the end of this week the Liberals were spending roughly $20,000 a day on Facebook ads through the party’s main page and Wilkinson’s page, while the NDP spend was about $10,000 a day.

The Liberals online campaign was initially focused on Horgan’s “power grab” but has since diversified.

Newer ads cover platform planks such as private competition for auto insurance, suspending the provincial sales tax, and their surprise pledge to hold a referendum on Surrey’s switch from the RCMP to a municipal police force. ...

A series of negative ads target “failed” NDP policies that led to small business and mill closures, tent cities and increasing greenhouse gas emissions. Scare ads warn of an NDP road tax on drivers, a tax on home equity.

“The Liberals seem to be more focused on the business climate and that you can’t trust the NDP to manage the recovery,” said Cameron.

The Liberals’ Chinese language ads say the NDP has added 23 new taxes and let crime and homelessness increase.

“The grim pictures of economic desolation and people in tents paint a pretty dark picture,” he said. “I think that parties have to balance that with a message that’s hopeful rather than try to scare the wits out of people.”

The B.C. Green Party is spending about $400 a day on ads that mainly focus on the New Democrats’ fondness for subsidies for the fossil fuel industry.

https://vancouversun.com/news/b-c-election-2020-incumbent-ndp-aiming-to-...

 

jerrym

Thompson Rivers University students and the local branch of the BC Association of Social Workers hosted an Oct. 6 online forum, with the eight candidates from the four parties involved in the two Kamploops ridings in order to discuss in detail the parties' approaches to mental health that focused on a local program where a mental health practioner accompanies the police on mental issue calls; how to reduce drug overdose deaths; alievating poverty; and UNDRIP. The url below summarizes each parties approach. 

https://www.kamloopsthisweek.com/news/bc-election-2020/election-2020-in-...

 

jerrym

Many in the leadership of the BC Liberal party including party leader Andrew Wilkinson were caught chuckling at what has been deemed a racist, sexist and misogynistic story about NDP North Vancouver-Lonsdale MLA Bowinn Ma told by Liberal North Vancouver-Seymour MLA Jane Thornwaite that was caught on video. She apologized but only after first defending her action.

Comments a BC Liberal election candidate made during a roast for a retiring MLA have become an election issue, after being widely circulated on social media Saturday night.

The comments were made by North Vancouver-Seymour candidate Jane Thornthwaite in a Zoom video leaked to This is Vancolour podcast host and CKNW contributor Mo Amir and have generated accusations of sexism and misogyny and calls for an apology. ...

In a story apparently meant to tease former West Vancouver-Capilano MLA Ralph Sultan, Thornthwaite recounts a series of interactions he had with North Vancouver-Lonsdale NDP candidate Bowinn Ma while in opposition. ...

Sultan had pledged to hold Bowinn to account on behalf of the Liberals, Thornthwaite said.

“Except Bowinn, as you know, very pretty lady, and she knows she’s got ‘it,’ and she knows how to get Ralph going,” says Thornthwaite in the video.

The two then-MLAs ended up seated together on a couch at an event at Capilano University, Thornthwaite said.

“Very, very close together for almost the entire time … we were supposed to be networking and all this, but Bowinn knows how to get you,” she said.

“Bowinn would be right up, right next to him, cuddling, cuddling, a little bit of cleavage there, and Ralph would be enthralled with her.” ...

BC Liberal Leader Andrew Wilkinson, along with candidates Mike de Jong, Karin Kirkpatrick and Jordan Sturdy can be seen chuckling in response to the story.

Global News has requested comment from both Jane Thronthwaite and Bowinn Ma along with Liberal Leader Andrew Wilkinson about the video.

Thornthwaite responded to the video in a pair of tweets Sunday morning.

The candidate initially wrote that she has “huge respect for all women who push through glass ceilings. I’m one of them. So is Bowinn Ma. Ralph Sultan has the same respect and a soft spot for his fellow UBC engineer, and I made light of that at a roast,” she said.

In a follow-up tweet, Thornthwaite apologized “unreservedly.” “The comments I made at the roast for my colleague Ralph Sultan fell flat and were inappropriate,” she wrote. I have reached out to Bowinn Ma to apologize directly to her as well. I commit to doing better moving forward.”

https://globalnews.ca/news/7391950/sexist-bc-liberals-take-fire-over-lea...

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

jerrym wrote:

Many in the leadership of the BC Liberal party including party leader Andrew Wilkinson were caught chuckling at what has been deemed a sexist and misogynistic story about NDP North Vancouver-Lonsdale MLA Bowinn Ma told by Liberal North Vancouver-Seymour MLA Jane Thornwaite that was caught on video. She apologized but only after first defending her action.

Comments a BC Liberal election candidate made during a roast for a retiring MLA have become an election issue, after being widely circulated on social media Saturday night.

The comments were made by North Vancouver-Seymour candidate Jane Thornthwaite in a Zoom video leaked to This is Vancolour podcast host and CKNW contributor Mo Amir and have generated accusations of sexism and misogyny and calls for an apology. ...

In a story apparently meant to tease former West Vancouver-Capilano MLA Ralph Sultan, Thornthwaite recounts a series of interactions he had with North Vancouver-Lonsdale NDP candidate Bowinn Ma while in opposition. ...

Sultan had pledged to hold Bowinn to account on behalf of the Liberals, Thornthwaite said.

“Except Bowinn, as you know, very pretty lady, and she knows she’s got ‘it,’ and she knows how to get Ralph going,” says Thornthwaite in the video.

The two then-MLAs ended up seated together on a couch at an event at Capilano University, Thornthwaite said.

“Very, very close together for almost the entire time … we were supposed to be networking and all this, but Bowinn knows how to get you,” she said.

“Bowinn would be right up, right next to him, cuddling, cuddling, a little bit of cleavage there, and Ralph would be enthralled with her.” ...

BC Liberal Leader Andrew Wilkinson, along with candidates Mike de Jong, Karin Kirkpatrick and Jordan Sturdy can be seen chuckling in response to the story.

Global News has requested comment from both Jane Thronthwaite and Bowinn Ma along with Liberal Leader Andrew Wilkinson about the video.

Thornthwaite responded to the video in a pair of tweets Sunday morning.

The candidate initially wrote that she has “huge respect for all women who push through glass ceilings. I’m one of them. So is Bowinn Ma. Ralph Sultan has the same respect and a soft spot for his fellow UBC engineer, and I made light of that at a roast,” she said.

In a follow-up tweet, Thornthwaite apologized “unreservedly.” “The comments I made at the roast for my colleague Ralph Sultan fell flat and were inappropriate,” she wrote. I have reached out to Bowinn Ma to apologize directly to her as well. I commit to doing better moving forward.”

https://globalnews.ca/news/7391950/sexist-bc-liberals-take-fire-over-lea...

Wow. Beyond Gross. The BC Liberals should be ahsamed of themselves!

Politicians like Bowin Ma need to be the future of elected politics in BC if we're going to get serious about dealing with the systemic economic, housing, and ecological crises facing our province and planet.

jerrym

Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson has now also apologized over the sexist and racist comments made about NDP MLA Bowinn Ma.  The video of nine Liberals, including Wilkinson laughing at Thornewaite's comments can be viewed by clicking on "the release of a video" below.

BC Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson has issued an apology to NDP candidate Bowinn Ma.

The apology comes after the release of a video showing BC Liberal party candidates laughing at sexist and misogynistic comments made about Ma.

In a statement on Twitter, Wilkinson acknowledged that BC Liberal candidate for North Vancouver-Seymour, Jane Thornthwaite, apologized for her comments about Ma during a virtual “roast” of Ralph Sultan, MLA for West Vancouver-Capilano, last month on a Zoom chat. ...

“Bowinn is a very pretty lady and she knows she’s got ‘it’ and she knows how to get Ralph going and this is my roast part for Ralph,” says Thornthwaite, who also went on to state Ma was “cuddling” and “showing a little bit of cleavage” while sitting on a couch with Sultan during an event at Capilano University.

The video shows Thornthwaite’s fellow candidates, including party leader Andrew Wilkinson, laughing along.

Wilkinson said upon reflection “those comments were inappropriate, and it was right for Jane to apologize. I want to apologize to [Bowinn Ma] as this never should have happened,” he said.

“I understand why many people are upset, and I continue to be committed to doing everything I can to make sure women are welcomed, encouraged, and treated with respect in politics and public life.”

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/andrew-wilkinson-apologizes-bowinn-ma-ndp

jerrym

Green Party leader Sonia Furstenau condemned the comments as “appalling.” She also tweeted "If women are not warm in the workplace, we are castigated as rude. If we are friendly, we get this. @BowinnMa is incredibly professional and her ability to forge friendships across party lines makes the legislature better. She is owed an apology." 

Being the youngest member of the BC Legislature opens Ma up to even more sexist attacks as a woman, as is evident in Thornwaite's comments. 

Pondering

This is interesting. the BC Libs are basically the BC-Con-Libs.  The BC NDP are basically the BC Lib-NDP. Are the Greens becoming the NDP-Greens or eco-socialist-Greens?

Aristotleded24

jerrym wrote:
Green Party leader Sonia Furstenau condemned the comments as “appalling.” She also tweeted "If women are not warm in the workplace, we are castigated as rude. If we are friendly, we get this. @BowinnMa is incredibly professional and her ability to forge friendships across party lines makes the legislature better. She is owed an apology." 

Being the youngest member of the BC Legislature opens Ma up to even more sexist attacks as a woman, as is evident in Thornwaite's comments.

It seems much worse by the fact that Thornthwaite is a woman, and if she hadn't experienced that herself, she probably has friends who have.

jerrym

Two new polls show the NDP growing even higher in the polls although the growth is within the margin of error. Leger's new poll from October 6-9 shows the NDP up 3% to 50% compared to Leger's last poll, while the Liberals are at 35%, the Greens at 12% and Others at 3%. There are also some interesting views in the Leger poll on LGBTQ rights in BC. 

As B.C.’s three party leaders head into Tuesday’s (Oct. 13) televised debate, a new poll shows John Horgan’s NDP holding a comfortable, double-digit lead over Andrew Wilkinson and the B.C. Liberal Party.

According to the Leger poll released on Tuesday morning, the NDP have the support of 50 per cent of election-eligible adults surveyed, with the Liberals trailing at 35 per cent and the B.C. Green Party at 12 per cent. Those numbers are consistent with a similar Leger poll conducted shortly after the writ dropped on Sept. 24, when the NDP were at 47 per cent and the Liberals at 31 per cent.

By comparison, a poll conducted before the 2017 election, in which the NDP won a minority government, showed 40.4 per cent of election-eligible adults surveyed planned to cast their ballots for the Liberals, 40.3 per cent for the NDP and 16.8 per cent for the Greens.

Forty-nine per cent of those polled plan to vote by mail-in ballot, a much greater number than usual. “That’s a sizeable portion of voters,” Enns said. “It’s uncharted territory.”

Only 47 per cent of those surveyed in the recent poll plan to watch the leader’s debate. ...

The poll also gauged the potential political impact of an ongoing controversy within the B.C. Liberals over LGBTQ+ rights.

Langley East candidate Margaret Kunst has been criticized for refusing to support a rainbow crosswalk as a local councillor and Chilliwack-Kent candidate Laurie Throness has faced public backlash for supporting so-called conversion therapy.

Approximately 58 per cent of the respondents in the Leger poll said they are less likely to support a party if it allows candidates to run who have homophobic of anti-LGBTQ views. That figure rose to 65 per cent among Vancouver respondents.

Wilkinson has resisted calls to remove the candidates.

https://www.kamloopsthisweek.com/news/poll-finds-b-c-ndp-with-large-lead...

 

jerrym

The second poll is from Ipsos on Oct. 8-11 and is most recent, coming just before the debate. It  found the NDP at 52%, the Liberals at 34%, the Greens at 11% and Others at 3%.

At the mid-point of the BC election campaign, a new Ipsos/Global BC/CKNW online poll shows the NDP maintaining its substantial leads in vote intention, leadership and issues. Only about one-in-four British Columbians see this as a ‘time for change’ election.

The Issues Coronavirus/COVID-19 has solidified its place as the top issue that voters care about in this provincial election. Nearly four-in-ten (37%) British Columbians rate Coronavirus/COVID-19 as one of their top two most important issues, which is an increase of 7 points from our early campaign poll (fielded Sept 24-28). Rounding out the top five issues that matter to British Columbians are cost of living/affordability (24%, unchanged), jobs and the economy (22%, up 3 points), housing affordability/availability (19%, up 2 points), and health care (18%, down 1 point). These are the same top 5 issues as in our early campaign poll, although housing and health care have flipped places.

The Horserace It’s still not close. The NDP have maintained their 18-point lead over the BC Liberals. Currently, 52% (up 1 point) of decided voters say they would be most likely to support or lean towards the New Democrats, compared to 34% (up 1 point) for the BC Liberals and 11% (down 1 point) for the Greens. Total ‘other party’ support is 3% (down 1 point). These results exclude the still sizable group of 27% (down 4 points) of British Columbians who are undecided or express no preference.

Age Breaks: The NDP leads by a wide margin across all age groups, including by 17-points among traditionally higher turnout older voters (NDP 53% vs. Libs 36% among 55+ years).

Gender Breaks: The NDP have a massive 31-point lead among women (59% NDP vs. 28% Libs) and a much narrower 7-point lead among men (46% NDP vs. 39% Libs).

Region Breaks: The NDP has a large 29-point lead on Vancouver Island (54% NDP vs. 25% Libs) and a 23-point lead in Metro Vancouver (56% NDP vs. 33% Libs). Voter preferences are a statistical tie in the Southern Interior/North (44% NDP vs. 42% Libs). The Green Party does best on Vancouver Island at 17% support (vs. 10% in Metro Vancouver, 8% in Southern Interior/North).  ...

Deserving Re-Election

There continues to be little appetite for change in this election. Only about one-quarter (27%, down 1 point) of British Columbians say it is time for another provincial party to take over. Nearly half (47%, up 2 points) of British Columbians believe that the Horgan government has done a good job and deserves re-election, while 26% (down 1 point) are undecided. For comparison, at this point in the 2017 BC election, half (51%) of British Columbians said that it was time for a new provincial party to take over from the Clark government.

Best Premier The first half of this election campaign has done nothing to shake up views of who would make the best Premier of BC. John Horgan, at 45% (up 1 point), has maintained a huge lead over both Andrew Wilkinson (16%, up 2 points) and Sonia Furstenau (6%, unchanged). One-in-three (33%, down 3 points) are undecided on this leadership question.

Impressions of Leaders/Campaigns None of the three main party campaigns has captured the hearts and minds of voters so far. Most British Columbians say the campaigns have either not changed their impression or they have no opinion at all.

The most positive shift, albeit slight, is for Sonia Furstenau and the Green Party, with 16% improved impressions versus 13% worsened impressions (39% stayed the same, 32% no opinion). The results for John Horgan and the NDP are generally neutral with 16% improved impressions versus 17% worsened impressions (53% stayed the same, 13% no opinion). The results for Andrew Wilkinson and the BC Liberals are slightly negative with 13% improved impressions versus 23% worsened impressions (44% stayed the same, 20% no opinion).  

Best on Issues John Horgan and the NDP continue to own most issues. The opposition parties have not made up ground on any issues. John Horgan and the NDP remain well ahead on the top 5 campaign issues of Coronavirus/COVID-19 (35-point lead), cost of living/affordability (19-point lead), jobs/economy (12 point lead), housing affordability/availability (22-point lead) and health care (29-point lead). Sonia Furstenau and the Green Party continue to lead on the issue of climate change and the environment (12-point lead).

chart

Promises Promises We tested a number of campaign promises for their importance in voter choice. The most impactful promise tested was ‘the BC Liberal promise to end ICBC's monopoly on auto insurance and allow drivers to purchase all types of auto insurance from private insurers’. This promise was rated as at least ‘somewhat important’ by six-in-ten residents (61%), including three-in-ten (31%) who rated it as ‘very important’. Three other campaign promises rated only slightly behind the Liberal’s ICBC promise, including …

  • The NDP promise to provide a one-time COVID recovery payment of up to $1,000 for families and up to $500 for single people (56% at least ‘somewhat important’, including 26% ‘very important’).
  • The NDP promise to freeze rent increases until the end of 2021 (55% at least ‘somewhat important’, including 28% ‘very important’).
  • The BC Liberal promise to eliminate the PST for one year, followed by keeping it at 3% until the economy recovers (51% at least ‘somewhat important’, including 21% ‘very important’).

The lowest rated promise was ‘the BC Liberal promise to spend $8 billion on infrastructure to stimulate the economy including a bridge to replace the Massey Tunnel’ (44% at least ‘somewhat important’, including 17% ‘very important’).

https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/Nothing-Changes-in-No-Change-Elec...

Ken Burch

I wonder if there might be a swing back to the BC Conservatives in the last week of the race, given that a BC Lib defeat now appears to be a virtual certainty and that, therefore the "if you're a 'free enterpriser', you HAVE to vote BC Liberal to kick the socialist barbarians back outside the gates" argument seems to be a moot point?

That realization was a major reason why the Socred vote collapsed into third place in '91, after all.

Pages