Premier Andrew Furey has called an election for Saturday February 13th.
Liberal Leader Andrew Furey has officially announced a general election in Newfoundland and Labrador. Voters will head to the polls on Feb. 13, a Saturday — a first for an election in the province.
Furey, at a kickoff rally at Confederation Building on Friday evening, referenced the province's ballooning debt, struggling oil industry and vast public service spending as he announced the election. "[At] no other time in our history has any generation of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians faced such a challenge," he said. "There is no precedent except the one we will set together." ...
New Democratic Party Leader Alison Coffin said Friday she'll campaign on the promise of bringing the priorities of every resident to the forefront, ensuring their needs are addressed in the legislature.
The NDP harbours concerns about affordability and the health-care system, she said.
The provincial Tories are running a campaign on job growth, which leader Ches Crosbie characterizes as a plan to get the economy back on track. ...
Furey was required by provincial law to call an election within 12 months of being sworn in as premier. However, the likelihood of Furey's decision to call an election now — in the middle of both an unpredictable North Atlantic winter and a pandemic — has already come under fire from both the Opposition Tories and the NDP, who have both said the governing Liberals should wait for the premier's economic recovery team, chaired by Moya Greene, to report first.
A progress report from the recovery team, outlining recommendations for dealing with public services and an escalating debt, is not expected until the end of February. Its final report is due April 30. ....
As of 4 p.m. Friday, the Liberals have issued 33 news releases in 36 hours. On Friday alone, various departments made cash commitments to the tune of at least $31,182,500. Liberal politicians have promised that money to technology start-ups, municipalities and tourism operators, among other interested parties. The costs related to medical program expansions also announced Friday, including an insulin pump subsidy for low-income adults, are not included in that figure. The amount also doesn't include any costs associated with wage and salary increases in four collective bargaining agreements struck this week, on the brink of an expected election call. The Liberal government now has agreements in place with CUPE, the Association of Allied Health Professionals and private ambulance operators, and a tentative agreement with the Newfoundland and Labrador Teachers' Association. ...
Despite the challenges of campaigning in winter weather and amid COVID-19 restrictions, both the PCs and the NDP have told CBC they are ready to campaign. Campaign chairs for the three major parties have indicated they will rely more on social media, and less on traditional means of reaching voters, such as door-to-door canvassing. Large-scale rallies will not be happening, nor will such staples as campaign stops at seniors' homes.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/general-election-ca...
Based on the latest polls both the PCs and NDP will be facing an uphill fight. The last three polls show an increasing lead for the Liberals.
Lib PC NDP
MQO Research Dec. 23 65 23 11
Narrative Research 3 58 26 13
Angus Reid 50 39 8
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Newfoundland_and_Labrador_general_ele...
However in three polls between August 2019 and February 2020, the NDP had 24%, 24%, and 26%, the last one just before Covid became a global problem, showing how the virus has increased the government's popularity as in other provinces compared to previous polls.
Therefore the biggest thing the Liberals have going for them is the low number of cases and deaths from Covid, although this is a function of being an Atlantic province, where cases of covid have been generally low in the region and of being mostly an isolated island and remote mainland area (Labrador) where just 394 cases and 4 deaths have occurred. In other provinical elections, being preceived to have done a good job has resulted in large victories by the governing party, regardless of political stripe. I therefore expect a large Liberal win.
However, "Furey ... referenced the province's ballooning debt, struggling oil industry and vast public service spending" in the last post in the CBC article, providing the NDP with an opening that the people need an opposition that will hold the government to account for failures on other issues and to counteract a post-election large cuts in government programs, something Newfoundlanders remember well from the previous Ball Liberal government.
In terms of preparedness for the election, the NDP is better shape than in 2019 with 13 candidates out of a possible 40 already nominated before the election call compared to having only 14 after nominations closed in 2019. They have a leader in Alison Coffin who was brand new and unelcted in 2019 but now is known and has shown herself to be a fighter during the last election campaign. If the party can get the election focused on the big non-Covid issues mentioned above, it could win the three seats it now holds and possibly pick up a St. Johns seat, although that will be an uphill fight, especially in Labrador West where Jordan Brown won by 2 votes in 2019.
Both the Newfoundland Medical Association and NDP leader Coffin is trying to make health care the central issue in the election campaign.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/election-notebook-2...
Coffin is also opposed to the $41.5 giveaway to Husky Oil in December by the Trudeau government to keep the "idled West White Rose offshore oil project going, particularly to "protect the option of restarting" in the next year — although there is no guarantee that will happen." while Liberal Premier fully supports it, saying ""Everyone wants a crystal ball, but of course we don't have one and we don't have that certainty," Furey told reporters following the conference." The $41.5 million, which is half the project cost, is in addition to the $325 million the Trudeau government handed the Liberal Newfoundland government in September to support the Newfoundland oil industry, after Husky stopped construction on the project in April due to the low price of oil. More subsidies poured into a sunsetting industry.
Federal Natural Resources Minister Seamus O'Regan called a strategic investment in the oil industry. When a company cancels a 60% complete project you know its in very bad shape. A strategic plan would actually be to stop throwing good money down the drain trying to keep alive an industry in a slow death spiral. The $41.5 million investment came a few days after Cenovus bought Husky for $4 billion. Cenovus quickly said that all options were on the table and a quick shutdown of the project was possible. Cenovus even admitted that it might walk away from the project as soon as the merger is complete.
ETA: I'm sure Husky-Cenovus won't walk away from the $41.5 million. I'll also bet they won't announce the cancelling of the project before the February 13th Newfouondland election. After all, Husky-Cenovus wouldn't want to piss off a government that has been so generous to them and other fossil fuel corporations in the past when there is likely more payola coming in the future. All at the same time Trudeau runs on a platform of the #1 global warming fighter.
On the other hand Coffin, facing reality, said " 'We're putting money into an industry that I don't think is sustainable at all. We're hearing time and time again that the oil industry is in decline.' — Coffin commenting on the $41.5 million in federal funds handed to Husky Energy on Dec. 3, 2020.(https://www.kamloopsthisweek.com/alison-coffin-newfoundland-and-labrador...)
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/west-white-rose-1.5...
The final candidates list is in, with the Liberals and Cons running a full slate and the NDP running in 33 of the 40 ridings, a large increase from the 14 they ran in 2019, when Coffin was chosen as leader at the last minute.
https://vocm.com/2021/01/23/2021-election-slate-finalized/
Questions are being raised about why Furey went to the polls in mid-winter during a pandemic with the suspicion being the Furey Liberals are trying to avoid revealing how bad the provinces finances are. Especially after Furey said the province needs tough medicine, the suspicion if he wins there will another round of huge cuts, just like the last Liberal Premier, Dwight Ball, did.
https://globalnews.ca/news/7591891/newfoundland-election-timing/
At the same time that Liberal Premier Furey says the province needs tough medicine, social advocates warn the province cannot recover economically if the widespread poverty in the province is not dealt with.
https://globalnews.ca/news/7573171/n-l-economic-crisis-poverty/
With the PCs saying the Liberals are planning to cut programs and spending and the Liberals going low-ball in their spending announcements, the reverse of usual scenarios in Canada but this is Newfoundland, this could hurt the Liberals large lead in the polls. If the PCs attack works to some extent, and it might because former Liberal Premier Dwight Ball had already done much the same, it could cut into the Liberal lead, not only helping out the PCs, but helping the NDP retain its three seats.
In the first poll carried out during the election campaign the Liberals have a 36% lead over the PCs among decided voters with 20% still undecided. Once again, the voters view of a government's performance with regard to Covid trumps (pun intended) everything.
Libs 62%
PCs 26%
NDP 9%
http://ntv.ca/liberals-lead-in-first-opinion-poll-of-campaign-from-mains...
With things going pretty much the Liberals way in the polls, there is a chance this week for the opposition this week with the Liberal premier, Andrew Furey, not attending a debate put on by the labour federation but sending deputy premier Siobhan Coady, raising questions about why Furey is not attending. The resignation of Mary Shortall, the head of the labour federation, from the premier’s economic recovery team earlier this month while complaining of a lack of transpaency, and the addition of a bussinesswoman also raises questions about whether the Liberals will tilt further right if they win the election, as seems likely.
https://globalnews.ca/news/7610517/debate-packed-third-week-nl-election/
9% for the NDP sounds pretty ominous for the NDP.
Is there anyone who can give an assessment of whether the NDP can retain its present seats? Or add any? What about Shelagh O'Leary in Mt Scio? She is deputy mayor of St John's and on parer at least seems to be a top recruit.
Two of Newfoundland's major unions, the Canadian Union of Public Employees (CUPE) and the Newfoundland and Labrador Association of Public and Private Employees, have gone after the Liberals for dodging questions about major budget cuts and layoffs, as well as for failing to release an economic recovery report.
And with the economic recovery team being led by the woman who led the privatization of Britain Royal Mail, there are even more concerns.
Premier Furey's refusal to attend the debate put on by the unions has further raised tensions.
https://globalnews.ca/news/7614155/union-ad-nl-election-debate-2021/
Today (Wednesday) will be TV debate night. It can also be watched at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RD4CrcyXLZc
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/election-notebook-m...
Below is a summary of the Newfoundland and Labrador Federation of Labour debate last night. The url below also contains a video of the entire debate.
https://www.thechronicleherald.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-and-labrador-...
There is talk about the possibility of cancelling the election because of Covid. Yesterday they had 11 cases; today they had 30. Although there have been many days when the number of new cases has been zero, considering what is happening elsewhere in Canada and the world in terms of cases this might as well be zero. I can't see the election be cancelled even if rapid growth continues. I also doubt if the increase will have much effect who people vote because the election is so close. If this had occurred at the beginning of the election or a little earlier and the rapid growth continued, then I could see an effect on who people voted for, but not at this point beyond at most a handful of people. But who knows, the NDP won West Labrador by two votes last time. The only possibilty for cancellation is to avoid having those in isolation prevented from voting if they have not already voted in advance. But there is no guarantee the isolation numbers will only get worse.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/bruce-chaulk-electi...
Well I was wrong about thinking that the Newfoundland election would not be delayed so close to election day on Saturday. With the number of cases spiking from 9 to 30 to 100, especially in metro St. Johns, because many election day workers have resigned out of fear of catching Covid. As a result, voting in 18 of the 40 electoral districts will not go ahead. These districts are in the Avalon peninsula. This could be good news for the NDP since 2 of the three ridings they hold are in St. John's and the main driver of the rise in the Liberal government vote has been the low Covid infection rate. So this could possibly push some people to reconsider who they vote for. However, the significant advance vote of course would not be affected by this and likely will favour the Liberals. Special ballot deadlines have been extended because of this so I expect quite a few people will take advantage of this.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/election-nl-staffin...
The NDP got another bit of good news today with the latest poll. Mainstreet Research February 10 poll shows the NDP up 8% to 17%, the Liberals down 8% to 54% and the PCs even at 26% with the Mainstreet poll of January 29th. Since much of the polling was done before the rapid spike in Covid cases, I suspect that the main driver in this change was NDP leader Alison Coffin's performance in the debate. It makes sense to some extent that the NDP could almost double its vote share rapidly, when one remembers the NDP were running at 26%, 24%, and 24% in the three polls immediately before Covid hit the country hard in March, as there was a body of voters who had some disposition to vote NDP a year ago. The poll results since the 2019 election can be seen at:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Newfoundland_and_Labrador_general_ele...
Well, it would be amusing if the Liberals ended up with only a handful of gains or no gains at all when they seemed to assume they could count on a "Covid landslide" if they called an election less than two years into this mandate,
Under Newfoundland law, the government had to call an election within a year of the selection of a new leader. So the Liberals had to have an election by August, since Furey replaced Ball in August last year. However, picking January to start the campaign in the middle of a harsh Newfoundland winter (I just saw the snow piled high everywhere in St John's on last night's news) was meant to take advantage of the low Covid numbers in January (about 400 infections total and only 4 deaths), avoid having to present a budget in a financial crisis that almost certainly be one of another Premier Ball type cuts, and hope to catch the opposition not fully ready. Then Covid said I am in control, not you.
In watching the CBC news last night, one medical worker commented on the rapid growth of Covid in the Avalon peninsula where St. John's is located, by saying that she thinks if there was the kind of testing that has occurred in the St. John's area in the last week occurring in the rest of the province outside the Avalon peninsula, she believes it would show Covid infections are in fact widespread throughout the province. This raises the question whether the low numbers that suddenly exploded, were the result of complacency from earlier good numbers or the Liberals not providing for much testing until a crisis occurred, as it might make them look bad in the runup to or during an election.
If I were on the Newfoundland Liberal strategy team- whatever it might be called- I would be terrified right now. There is a good chance their support could go into catastrophic decline between now and whenever the rest of the ballots are counted.
It's going to be interesting to see whether the shift to all mail-in voting and a presumably substantial decline in turnout will affect the parties differently. I don't know as much about the NDP's voter base specifically in NL although in general my understanding is that NDP supporters are harder to turn out in "normal" times. In any case I suspect the polls are going to be even less reliable than usual.
That's not entirely accurate. The law as it exists now says an election has to be called within one year of a new premier taking over, that section of the law could easily be removed. The PCs, NDP and independents passed a private members resolution last year calling for the election to be delayed until October 2021 to allow for more vaccinations. The despite the motion passing, the Liberals didn't support it or honour it.
Furey, rightly so, wanted a majority mandate ASAP to start implementing his agenda. He doesn't want to say that, for whatever reason, so he repeats the same lie over and over again that he had no choice.
Thanks for the update, Newfoundlander_Labradorian...and good to hear from you, since you seem to have been gone for a spell.
The NDP could have very well missed an opportunity once again. While they're numbers in this poll jumped, although they seemed a bit low in the last poll, it likely won't make much of a difference. The party might have 10 candidates who are actually running campaigns, and most still don't have a chance in their districts.
The three incumbents should be safe, thanks to the stronger polling numbers and incumbency. St. John's Centre, which has become arguablely the most NDP seat in the province, was supposedly tight between Jim Dinn and prominent Liberal candidate Gemma Hickey. However, the events of the last two weeks will likely benefit Dinn.
The seat to keep an eye on for the NDP will be Mount Scio, where St. John's Deputy Mayor Sheilagh O'Leary is running. The seat is currently represented by cabinet minister Sarah Stoodley, who was only elected narrowly over the PCs in 2019. However, it was an unexpected win as the PCs seemed to been favoured there. The NDP ran a high profile candidate in the district in 2015 and place a strong third. However, their support cratered last time. O'Leary will definitely boost the party's chances here. Her downfall will be that a significant chunk of the district is in the suburban town of Paradise, and they're not a demographic that would normally vote NDP. The PCs are also running well known musician Damian Follett. His candidacy seemed to be overshadowed a bit by what some thought would be a battle between O'Leary and Stoodley. Considering the PCs were a close second last time, with a less known candidate, then it's possible Follett could surprise people. Especially if all three parties are competitive. Follett also gained attention in the last 2 weeks after he announced that his son and subsequently himself had tested positive for COVID-19.
So Mount Scio will be the big district to keep an eye on, and with Mail-in ballots being the only option now to vote the race could very much come down to organization.
The failure of the Liberal government to make a greater effort to allow everyone to vote is reprehensible but politically understandable because they are likely to benefit from having fewer special ballot voters. However, the non-chalant attitude of Newfoundland and Labrador’s chief electoral officer, Bruce Chaulk, to the problem is shocking.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-nl-election-a-warning-to-...
The combination of a winter and Covid election will make this the lowest turnout percentage wise in Newfoundland history. Even if everyone who requested a mail-in ballot turns it in, which never happens, the turnout will only be 51%, the lowest ever in the province. One can thank Liberal Premier Furey for this mess. The NDP is looking at the possibility of pursuing a legal challenge to an election in which everyone who was eligible to vote was not able to.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/low-voter-turnout-c...
The lower the turnout, the greater the liklihood of a Liberal majority-by-default, which Furey will then claim as a "mandate" for his austerity agenda.
I see that the NDP vote in the latest Mainstreet poll has declined from 17 to 9%.
I wonder if any of the locals can tell us:
1. Does this seem accurate?
2. if so, what reasons are behind such a big decline over the campaign?
The three most recent polls are all Mainstreet. In them the Liberals went 62-54-53. The PCs went 26-26-32. The NDP went 9-17-9. The only constant in the last two polls is the Liberals losing 8-9%. The PCs stay flat and then jump 6% while the NDP goes up 8% then falls back 8%, all within a month, making wonder about the reliability of these Mainstreet polls.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2021_Newfoundland_and_Labrador_general_ele...
I wouldn't read too much into the Mainstreet poll. I felt the 17% for the NDP was too high but still think they can get into double digit support.
The last election it was difficult to gauge NDP support in polls because they were running so few candidates and didn't have any representation in entire regions of the province. The party finished with 6.3% of the vote in 2019, yet some polls mid campaign had them polling in the teens. That was an impossible number to reach with something like 15 candidates. Even though they're not running a full slate this election they at least have candidates in all regions, which should help to make polling a bit more accurate.
In the end though, whether they are polling at 9% or 17% there are still only 4 districts where they likely have a chance.