NB Politics Potpourri 2-All the little dirty secrets revealed.

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David Young

Pierre C yr wrote:

Im not a 'right wing' NDPer if you can call it that. Im borderline socialist and getting moreso by the year as I age.

That didn't stop Leo-Paul Lauzon from running as the candidate in Outremont in 2006, and he's about as 'left wing' an NDPer as you'll ever meet.  He received 17% of the vote, and opened the door for Mulcair to take the seat in the by-election one year later.

If you don't re-offer, I hope you'll find another quality candidate like yourself there.




New Brunswick's Liberals approved a series of resolutions on contentious issues, such as abortion rights and shale gas development, at a weekend policy convention that is preparing the party for September’s election.



The Liberals voted down having any length of time for their shale gas moratorium.... explicitly leaving it open to change their minds and say its all OK. the year after coming into office.

It will be interesting to see if Dominic Cardy and the NDP follow up with calling for a 4 or 5 year moratorium.


Yea, let's run against jobs NDP, that's a sure winner.


You dont know a fucking thing about the dynamic here. 

Just repeat the same lines from your very short playbook.



You're actually kind of funny.

Dominic Cardy is such a likely candidate to be pushing a policy line hard to sell.

I'm not predicting the NBNDP will come out for a moratorium that dosnt vanish in a blink of an eye- you know, 'lets take a little time to think about this.' But Dominic and the NBNDP have already positioned themselves at least in that area.


There is a reason almost all the federal and provincial governments are not NDP in this country.

Canadians, in case you haven't clued in, are concerned about the economy and jobs.

Your approach will definitely keep them unelected forever.

Go back to sleep Ken.

KenS wrote:

You dont know a fucking thing about the dynamic here. 

Just repeat the same lines from your very short playbook.



Like I said, you dont know anything about the dynamic here.

Do you have any idea of the numbers for whom the promises of jobs are considered questionable, while the negative consequences of fracking are considered far more likely?

And as far as the country in general goes, its HOW you play the jobs and economy card.... not whether you or not you beg for a couple dollars from the guys stealing your wallet.

Pierre C yr

Theres not a lot of money or jobs in shale gas. That could change if gas prices rise but US production is so massive it might be years or decades before that happens. I think some shale gas might happen as very deep wells might be less dangerous. Shale formation in southern NB here runs up to 4 kms deep and that might be safe enough to mine.


But there are some jobs in mining and Dominic supports the pipeline so he's not anti jobs...  


The depth that shale beds are at makes only a pretty small difference in probability of mishaps. Casing failures with consequences are the higher ones- and a certain percentage of wells have those. 

The depth of wells makes zero difference to the handling and transportation of toxins on the surface.

Very shallow shale beds do pose more of a risk of migration directly out of the beds- but we dont seem to have any of that in the region.

So the degree of lesser risk with 4 km instead of 2 km shale bed depth, is very small comfort.


Critics habitually overstate the financial flim flam of promoting shale gas.

SWN is living proof that there is money in shale gas. They dont do anything else, and they dont flip leases or other bubble type activity.

The numbers of jobs is grotesquely inflated. But we're up against people wanting to believe. Even if they know its all inflated, a fraction of what is promised is still enticing. 

If we dont say no, they WILL develop the resource here. "We dont know how much there is. Maybe there isnt much anyway." is disengenuous BS. There is enough for them to go ahead. Price will determine how soon, not 'if'.


An outspoken former heart surgeon who was cast out from New
Brunswick’s Progressive Conservative caucus has been allowed to return.


Dr. Jim Parrott rejoined the caucus of the governing Tories today for
the first time since being booted from caucus in September 2012 after
accusing the government of not listening to doctors about health care


Pierre C yr

Well theres money for SWN but not that much for the provincial gov. But again it depends on prices... It certainly wont do much in terms of the long term economic slump from our aging population (and the lack of jobs from the ongoing technical revolution). The only thing to placate that will be the Federal gov. 


Pierre Cyr wrote:

Well theres money for SWN but not that much for the provincial gov. But again it depends on prices...  

The highlighted bit: aint that the truth.

One of the sickest scams in this is the so caled "Royalty Regime". Just about no matter what the prices, the royalties will be negligible, and the other taxes minimal.

The "regime" is there so that the govt can talk about the coming bonanza. The companies know how it really works. Its not even hidden.

The only insulation we get from the iffiness of prices is that the companies will not start in a big way. But they never start a new area in a big way anyway. By the time they have the requisite few years of local drilling experience under their belts before they can really go at it, prices will most likely have gone up enough to support ramping up production.

And guaranteed sooner if the Goldboro LNG plant becomes a definite.


Pierre C yr

Id be surprised if we were able to stop fracking... The libs putting a moratorium wont last long imo. The key for NB in the medium term is getting a perequation system that respects age and need structures. National programs that guarantee basic aspects of canadian society in all regions irrelevant of local economy. Its too easy to economically dislocate a country as big as Canada without a proper moderate redistribution system.


Yor are right to be more than skeptical about the Liberals intentions.

It would be: do the moratorium that we promised then 'we'll see.'

But in terms of that givng the end result, its looking at inetentions as if they were in a vaccum. They are not.

Fracking in itself, by itself, isnt going to toss the Alward government out of power. But it is gong to be the margin that on top of everything else loses them a few seats. That is not only losing power, it is also everyone remembering what a big part of that was.

Then you have a moratorium. The experience everywhere, in every jurisdiction, is that once in place, it becomes something politicians who want to end it just cannot find a way to do it without putting their heads in a noose.

Governor Cuomo of New York has been indicating for years he is going to end their moratorium- and that 'absolutely' there will be a 'decision' before the election. Did not happen.

There is no question the Liberal government in Quebec is pro-fracking. But what are they going to do? Thats a different matter.

Even if Alward were to hang on to a minority government, he is not going to be able to keep up the "we are going ahead" business.



Overall reality to keep in sight:

Fracktivists do not generally score decisive victories, if ever they do.

But they do not need to.

Fracking is a very capital intensive activity, with pretty long payback periods until there might be profits.

Fracking cannot take place in the conditions of a political stalemate.

Which is why fracktivists dont have to "win".


It might seem a little trickier in New Brunswick, where the government, whoever it is, has to back away from a big green light, and where there is already some fracking happening.

But there were more wells drilled in both New York and Quebec before the moratoriums there took hold. New Brunswick has the distinction of already having a producing field. But only a tiny fraction of that gas comes from a couple shale gas wells.

New York and Nova Scotia do not actually have moratoriums. We have what started as "no new permits will be issued or applications for them taken". They just started being called moratoriums, and eventually they become 'official moratoriums'. 

But they start as no premits will be issued. Which is presumably what a somehow surving Alward minority government would be backed into.

When it comes that nebulous sounding 'no applications accepted' understandably creates a concern that there will be some kind of back door fracking being allowed. But it never will. No company wants to wedge in with just a couple wells. If they cannot build up to a full scale field- at least many dozens of wells, the few orphaned wells drilled and producing are just money wasted.

When the Nova Scotia government 2 years ago said, "no new applications will be accepted" that was just a rhetorical flourish for public benefit. The minute a government even hangs a question mark out on fracking, there will be no applications from companies even for a "test well".

As far as the companies go, New Brunswick also has a big question mark on it- even with the gung-ho neck in the noose Alward government banging the drums. Why do you think SWN is not drilling some test wells this year?


[Caveat required: SWN has pretty deep pockets, and they are an interesting outfit. So they have the discretionary capital to drop on a few wells, even with the uncertainty of the 'future business climate'. And they might see some essentially political/tactical reason to do that. But its hard to figure what that would be. I'm sure the government has asked them to hold off until after the election. .... Barring some weird and risky (to say the least) strategy that it would be useful wedge politics to have street battles around drilling sites that have to bring in and out dozens of big trucks a day or things go really off the rails. In other jurisdictions SWN has always played the smart traditional PR game. So I cant see them or Alward thinking extreme wedge politics would be a good strategy.]

Pierre C yr

Hope you're right but I think places like NY have more liberal minded folks than NB. The electorate there is much more adverse to something like fracking and where the economy doesnt really need it at all. NB is pretty darn conservative. Which explains why the Liberals here are so right wing. I think polls in NB are split right down the middle on the issue but I havent seen one of late here. 




Looks like at least one well will get done this year...


The biggest difference with NY is that politics and causes are blood sports. There is more noise and more passion.

So it takes a lot more to be heard in New York.

In my opinion, the effects of protests in New York and the Maritimes is very similar.

Fracking is a quieter issue in Nova Scotia than NY, so Premeir Dexter did not have to SAY as much as Governor Cuomo.... but the positioning was very similar.

Obviously, Alward is different- in fact he is right now unique in the US or Canada- and he is paying a price.

This is one of those growing number of issues that is bigger than liberal-conservative or left-right.

Pierre C yr

Oh ya definitely there is an environmental streak in the progressive conservatives. Harks back to Mulroney dealing effectively with sulphur emissions from coal burning causing acid rain. Im not sure that will be the defining reason as to why they will kick out Alward this fall though from all the polls we've seen. Only to replace him with another McKenna 'I want a leg up on my carreer to the big time' corporate lawyer... I think Alward is losing to the anti tax crowd after he raised income taxes.  

Course there are many ways for Gallant to gain that leg up. He can privatize some aspect of the public sector and gain a or several corporate chairs after he loses in 4-8 years.  McKenna in that has shown the way for ambitious and greedy people. So not necessarily would he give up the moratorium if support for shale gas doesnt surprise with an uptick above 40-50% IIRC, which would probably not go much higher.

I can see him selling somethign important like alcool NB or NB Power, only not to Quebec... I doubt if the sale of NB Power had been to a NS or NFLD based company if the opposition to it would have been anywhere near as formidable.


The New Brunswick Liberal Association has dismissed a complaint about how its election candidate in Rothesay was nominated.

The party's nominating convention rules and appeals committee has upheld the choice of Stephanie Tomilson as the candidate for the September provincial election.

The defeated candidate, John Wilcox, had alleged Tomilson, the principal of Rothesay High School, "unethically recruited students" to attend the May 10 nomination convention.



The NBNDP looks like it will gain multiple seats in the provincial election.  

Fredericton West-Hanwell - NBNDP leader Dominic Cardy

Fredericton South - Popular former Liberal MLA Kelly Lamrock is running for the NDP

Saint John Harbour - Local media personality Gary Stackhouse is running for the NDP in a seat that was once held by the NDP from 1991-2005.  


What are the NBNDP's chances up in the Acadie-Bathurst area held federally by Yvon Godin?  Any chance of recruiting a star candidate up in one or more of those provincial ridings?


I don't believe that Harbour has had its nomination meeting yet. To the best of my knowledge, Wayne dryer will also be contesting the nomination.


Liberal Leader Brian Gallant has increased his lead in the latest Corporate Research Associates poll, only a few months before the Sept. 22 provincial election.

Gallant’s Liberals were picked by 53 per cent of decided voters as the party they would cast a ballot for if the election were held today, followed by the Progressive Conservatives at 28 per cent, the NDP at 16 per cent and the Greens at three per cent.

The People’s Alliance remained with zero per cent support and the number of undecided voters was 33 per cent, according to the CRA poll.


Pierre C yr

Ya thats a bit scary. Frank McKenna all seats in the house kind of win. Its the poison of party brands. It prevents critical thinking. A failure of civics education of rather the lack thereof. Swap out a bad leader and voila, you can feel good about voting for your dads and grand dads party all over again no matter the ethical failings of that party.


All of the Liberal gains have come at the expense of the NDP. Over the last year the PCs have polled consistently within the margin of error.


It's interesting how the NDP has recruited two defeated candidates from the 2010 election (Kelly Lamrock and Abel Leblanc). It gives the party a lot of profile. I wonder if that will continue to been an effective approach to recruiting high profile candidates. With the latest recruitment of Abel Leblanc, he said that he had quit the Liberal party out of disappointment over the nominations that Ivan Court (former mayor of Saint John) and John Wilcox (Rothesay) had lost. Maybe they will be new recruits? I know Kelly Lamrock supported Michael Murphy for the leadership of the Liberal Party and I think Greg Byrne is a relative of PEI NDP candidate Joe Byrne. Maybe they will get recruited too?


Leblanc is a loose cannon. Is Cardy having that much trouble finding candidates? Court is still damaged goods from his time as Mayor. It will be a long time before people would see him as a credible candidate. Now Wilcox might be an interesting candidate for the NDP especially in Rothesay.


Lamrock's a loose cannon for that matter too. Cardy's no shrinking violet either.


Cardy is a Blairite. Lamrock's natural home is the NDP despite having been a Liberal cabinet minister and a former employee of PC Senator Noel Kinsella.


Gary Stackhouse claiming the N-D-P nomination
in Saint John Harbour for the upcoming provincial election. The former
radio broadcaster defeating Wayne Dryer 43-33.


Dr. Ed Doherty will be running for the Liberals in the riding which is held by Conservative Carl Killen.



Killen beat Doherty, the incumbent, in the last election. The polls are suggesting that this will be a reversal of fortunes.


I wouldn't mind seeing Dryer run in my riding.



NDP Leader Dominic Cardy, who has promoted himself as a more moderate New Democrat, is being urged by critics to take a stronger stand against the Alward government’s forestry plan.



NB NDP wants to eliminate business tax for small businesses altogether.

What would Elizabeth Weir say about that if she were still leading the party?


The NDP in manitoba has virtually eliminated the small business tax - so Elizabeth Weir would likely think it was a good idea for NB as well. 


Statement from NB NDP leader Dominic Cardy on the death of Pierre Cyr:

Mr. Cyr was a man who was passionate about everything he did; my
condolences to his wife Denise and to all his family and friends.

David Young

I conversed with him in earlier posts in this thread.



David Hackett

FYI, The Pierre Cyr who died is the former candidate for the leadership of the NB party, who is a different person than the Pierre who posts here, I believe.   Sad to see this news.

David Hackett

-  Double post - sorry -

Pierre C yr

Yes just to be clear its Pierre Cyr who was a candidate for the provincial NB NDP party. I was the federal candidate in the 2011 election in Tobique-Mactaquac.


Ive never met him but I heard he was a very nice, principled and ethical man. RIP.

David Young

My bad!

Sorry for the confusion.






When I first hear the rumors yesterday I thought it was somebody's idea of a joke. I awoke this morning to it being the top story in the local newspaper. Veteran PC MLA, Bev Harrison is seeking the NDP nomination in the riding of Hampton. The only other confirmed candidate for the NDP has had his permission revoked apparently because he liked a post on Facebook concerning Green Party leader, David Coon. Riding President, Pat Hanratty, resigned earlier this week citing Cardy's attempts to move the party to the right.


ETA: to date this means 2 former Liberal MLAs (Kelly Lamrock and Abel Leblanc) and one former PC MLA (Bev Harrison) will be donning te the NDP orange in the upcoming election.


Caissa wrote:

ETA: to date this means 2 former Liberal MLAs (Kelly Lamrock and Abel Leblanc) and one former PC MLA (Bev Harrison) will be donning te the NDP orange in the upcoming election.

Isn't Bev Harrison a CURRENT MLA not a former one? I think i read the former leader of the NB Green party is also running for the NDP - not bad for a party that only took 10% of the vote in the last election and has not won a seat in 11 years.


I speak of him as "former PC MLA" in the sense that he is no longer a PC but you are correct that he is an incumbent MLA. The NB NDP seems to be becoming a big tent party.

Pierre C yr

He didnt just like a Facebook page of another party he liked a comment endorsing a vote for them. Thats the kind of thing that can get you turfed as a candidate. Facebook isnt a toy its a serious playing field for those looking for information on politics. 

Ive liked things on Facebook about other parties myself before but I would never endorse voting for them.






I think the behaviour by the NDP leadership was a bit ham fisted in this instance. There were several sentiments in the post that he liked only one of which was that the indivdiual posting intended to vote for the Greens.  Ms. C. is already strongly considering spoiling her ballot in the upcoming election. I can't say that I blame her.

Pierre C yr

And Im sure he wasnt turfed for the other likes. He couldve offered for another riding or made a run at Bev for the nomination had he not done that. Its likely there wont be a full slate this time around for all 49 ridings. And I dont think other candidates would have been refused a chance at the nomination there either. Bev is the nominee by default of acclamation seems to me.


The NDP will most definitely run a full slate of candidates. They ran a full slate in 2010 when they had far less support and we're far less organized than they are now. Also NB pays parties a per vote subsidy so a party would be crazy not to at least have a name on the ballot in every riding just to maximize its popular vote and get more revenue


Pierre C yr wrote:

He didnt just like a Facebook page of another party he liked a comment endorsing a vote for them. Thats the kind of thing that can get you turfed as a candidate. Facebook isnt a toy its a serious playing field for those looking for information on politics. 

Ive liked things on Facebook about other parties myself before but I would never endorse voting for them.

This doesn't seem a little ham-fisted and authoritarian?  As Caissa said, there were multiple comments in that post.  And it's a singular facebook like - it's not like he's riding around town with a bullhorn shouting "Vote Green!"

And isn't there some irony here?  Rendell liked a facebook post and thus can't be a candidate, meanwhile the other guy was a long-time PC MLA.

Maybe there is something that I don't understand, but wouldn't a better way for a democratic party to handle this be to let the members decide, instead of having head office come in from on high and cause all this controversy in the riding association?  If Rendell's sin is so egregious that he can't be a candidate, then surely the members will consider that and vote for a long-time loyal New Democrat who has never ever in his life said anything that could be construed as an endorsement of another party such as Bev Harrison.

Because right now, it gives the impression that the head office was just looking for any speck of dirt that they could use to give Harrison a clear run at the nomination.