The costs of flattening the curve

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kropotkin1951

A24 if any of my relatives or close friends were dying they would insist that no one came anywhere fucking near them, just as I would if I was dying. Sorry most people dying are not selfish pricks like the people in your hypothetical.

Aristotleded24

kropotkin1951 wrote:
A24 if any of my relatives or close friends were dying they would insist that no one came anywhere fucking near them, just as I would if I was dying. Sorry most people dying are not selfish pricks like the people in your hypothetical.

That's their call to make. Some people feel differently, and I think it's entirely inappropriate for you or anyone else to pathologize and label as "selfish" anyone who disagrees with you. And by calling someone a "selfish prick," you are the one making the choice to label someone else, and your choice to label someone in such a way says more about you than the person you are labelling.

There are many infectious diseases that are lethal to people in an ICU, and yet people are allowed to be with their families during this time. Maybe some protocols have to be tightened for covid, but I don't see why there has to be a blanket ban on family visits during this time. Put policies and protocols in place. Tell families, "there is a risk from covid, here is what you have to do in case you want to be with your loved one." Then let the families make the choice and support them either way.

JKR

I think nurses, doctors, and health care workers work in the interests of their patients and clients.

Aristotleded24

Some time ago, I posted a piece outlining the behavioural failings of the left on lockdown. Let's review some of them:

Quote:

The ideological failings of the left on lockdown are accompanied by a pronounced tendency to behave in politically-revealing stylistic ways, including:

Belligerence: Converse with most lockdown leftists and you will be struck by their hostility to sceptical views and their lack of respect for the holders of those views. Calm discussion of evidentiary and political differences on lockdown has been replaced by the left’s need to beat down lockdown apostates in heated argument, not with better ideas but with belligerence. In politics, as in fashion, ‘the style is the man’ and the lockdown/woke left’s antagonistic and intimidating behaviour reflects poorly on a political grouping that claims to value liberalism, tolerance and ‘diversity’.

...

Virtue-signalling: Left lockdown lovers portray themselves, overtly or by implication, as a better class of person who is superior to the lockdown sceptic – intellectually superior to those they misrepresent as ‘Deniers’ of ‘The Science’ and morally superior to those whom they caricature as being more concerned with ‘the economy’ over health. We, say the left, may have lost a democratic national referendum or an election but we are still better than the nativists, the xenophobes, the gap-toothed, knuckle-dragging deplorables and, now, the heartless lockdown sceptics who are prepared to cruelly cull society of its old geezers.

By and large, the response of this community to the points I have been making opposing covid restrictions has validated the author's contention.

Pondering

Say a family gets together and decides it is worth the risk to spend a loved one's final moments with them. What if it is a child? The final moments of a loved one's life can haunt the living for a lifetime. People take risks all the time when they go extreme skiing and extreme mountain climbing etc. So why not allow people to make their own choice as to what risks they are willing to take for which rewards?

The answer is that they don't only put themselves at risk, they also risk everyone else they come in contact with....unless they are wearing the proper PPEs like health care professionals or go into quarantine, the first of which is more practical. 

Everyone on this board, bar none, agrees that this entire pandemic has been mismanaged.  Nor does it look like we will learn anything from it. That we still have a shortage of PPEs is ridiculous. Surgical masks uses to be 10 cents a pop.  

PPEs are not high tech or labour intensive to produce. If someone is dying surely a few sets of PPEs shouldn't be what keeps them apart from loved ones. The risk to visitors is no greater than it is to health professionals as long as they are properly garbed. Reusable PPEs can be produced. The government can use emergency powers to force manufacturers to produce what we need and not to price gouge.  They just aren't doing it.  Contact tracing is useless at this point. We need to be testing broadly to find out where it is so we can do targeted lockdowns. Rules keep changing confusing people instead of educating them so they understand the spirit of the rules, why they exist.  Politicians and experts were manipulative from the start and it was obvious. If masks didn't work professonals wouldn't need them. Duh. It keeps getting thrown in their faces because it never made sense. Care homes are getting hit again. 

I don't agree with A2 concerning lifting restrictions but some of his views flourish for a reason.  Our governments are inept at actually running the country. 

Pondering

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Bacchus wrote:
And potentially infect and kill them

Just like we shouldn't allow gays to run rampant spreading AIDS everywhere, Bacchus?

Seriously, that is a disgusting and offensive thing for you to say. It's not like we don't know that this virus is infectious and potentially fatal, but these are decisions that families need to make themselves without undue interference from you, me, the government, or anyone else. There are all kinds of infectious diseases that kill people, and yet their family members are still often allowed to be near them, especially in their final moments. Why is covid that unique that we have to go to such lengths to keep people separated, even to the point that loved ones are not allowed by the bedsides of family members who are about to pass away? Yes, we need to deal with the covid threat, but there are other things in life besides covid that are important to people, and we have completely forgotten that as a society.

Why have we attached such a stigma to covid, where if it spreads it's because it's someone's fault or someone did something wrong? This is exactly the way people used to stigmatize the gay community around the issue of AIDS in the 1980s, and the left spoke up against it at the time. What's different now?

Covid 19 is far more virulent that the flu. This is why so few people are catching the flu yet many are still catching Covid-19. It is not as virulent as measles, so far, but it is much more virulent than the flu.

This is not about politics or "the left". It is about the sources we trust and our own sense of reason. I trust my local health care providers. The ones on the front lines. Real world evidence in my own community. I then look to the wider world and filter the information based on the reputation of the institution or individual in contrast to or in agreement with other sources. For example. The WHO has gone down a great deal in my estimation because in my opinion they were politicized which undermines their purpose. I trust the information that the new varient in the UK and now around the world is more viralent. I don't think I have yet heard if it is more or less deadly although death is not the only negative outcome. 

It is quite possible that it will burn itself out. The scientific community is not ruling it out. A best case scenario would be great. It is just that the other possibility is so bad and so much more likely that we can't risk it. 

It seems all it takes to be part of "the left" is to be left of the Republicans. 

kropotkin1951

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Some time ago, I posted a piece outlining the behavioural failings of the left on lockdown. Let's review some of them:

Quote:

The ideological failings of the left on lockdown are accompanied by a pronounced tendency to behave in politically-revealing stylistic ways, including:

Belligerence: Converse with most lockdown leftists and you will be struck by their hostility to sceptical views and their lack of respect for the holders of those views. Calm discussion of evidentiary and political differences on lockdown has been replaced by the left’s need to beat down lockdown apostates in heated argument, not with better ideas but with belligerence. In politics, as in fashion, ‘the style is the man’ and the lockdown/woke left’s antagonistic and intimidating behaviour reflects poorly on a political grouping that claims to value liberalism, tolerance and ‘diversity’.

...

Virtue-signalling: Left lockdown lovers portray themselves, overtly or by implication, as a better class of person who is superior to the lockdown sceptic – intellectually superior to those they misrepresent as ‘Deniers’ of ‘The Science’ and morally superior to those whom they caricature as being more concerned with ‘the economy’ over health. We, say the left, may have lost a democratic national referendum or an election but we are still better than the nativists, the xenophobes, the gap-toothed, knuckle-dragging deplorables and, now, the heartless lockdown sceptics who are prepared to cruelly cull society of its old geezers.

By and large, the response of this community to the points I have been making opposing covid restrictions has validated the author's contention.

The virus is not the virus to end all viruses. The herd immunity threshold is apparently much lower than expected because of cross-immunity due to the common cold and other coronaviruses. Most people (other than the aged with specific comorbidities) who contract it are either asymptomatic or have only mild symptoms.

This is the kind of bullshit contained in the article you posted. WTF is wrong with you to be republishing fake news during a pandemic. Some idiot might read it and think this person is a credible source.

Aristotleded24

kropotkin1951 wrote:
Aristotleded24 wrote:

Some time ago, I posted a piece outlining the behavioural failings of the left on lockdown. Let's review some of them:

Quote:

The ideological failings of the left on lockdown are accompanied by a pronounced tendency to behave in politically-revealing stylistic ways, including:

Belligerence: Converse with most lockdown leftists and you will be struck by their hostility to sceptical views and their lack of respect for the holders of those views. Calm discussion of evidentiary and political differences on lockdown has been replaced by the left’s need to beat down lockdown apostates in heated argument, not with better ideas but with belligerence. In politics, as in fashion, ‘the style is the man’ and the lockdown/woke left’s antagonistic and intimidating behaviour reflects poorly on a political grouping that claims to value liberalism, tolerance and ‘diversity’.

...

Virtue-signalling: Left lockdown lovers portray themselves, overtly or by implication, as a better class of person who is superior to the lockdown sceptic – intellectually superior to those they misrepresent as ‘Deniers’ of ‘The Science’ and morally superior to those whom they caricature as being more concerned with ‘the economy’ over health. We, say the left, may have lost a democratic national referendum or an election but we are still better than the nativists, the xenophobes, the gap-toothed, knuckle-dragging deplorables and, now, the heartless lockdown sceptics who are prepared to cruelly cull society of its old geezers.

By and large, the response of this community to the points I have been making opposing covid restrictions has validated the author's contention.

The virus is not the virus to end all viruses. The herd immunity threshold is apparently much lower than expected because of cross-immunity due to the common cold and other coronaviruses. Most people (other than the aged with specific comorbidities) who contract it are either asymptomatic or have only mild symptoms.

This is the kind of bullshit contained in the article you posted. WTF is wrong with you to be republishing fake news during a pandemic. Some idiot might read it and think this person is a credible source.

Here is what he says about his leftist credentials in his piece:

Quote:
The left’s lockdown betrayal of the working class further accelerates its decline into political irrelevance. This is not a cause for celebration, especially for someone like myself, a four-decade Australian veteran of working class socialism including as a trade union activist, and member of the Communist Party of Australia and more Trotskyist grouplets than you could shake a Program of the Fourth International at, who still cooks on the left burner.

Here is his page

So are we all of a sudden to not question orthodoxy or anything that the left says? Is the left so infallible that any views espoused cannot be questioned or critiqued?

Aristotleded24

Dr. Vinay Prasad on forcing people to die alone as a human rights violation

There's another aspect of this that is very troubling. We know that direct human contact can play a huge role in the healing process. How many covid patients who died in the ICU might have lived had someone been able to be with them, hold their hand and say, "I know you'll make it, but you have to keep fighting?"

Aristotleded24

How social distancing affects people who are single:

Quote:

Lockdowns destroy quality of life in the order of acute disease and cause emotional disorders which are often severe. Sadly, that is only the beginning of their health effects. Most countries have put in place permanent social distancing measures that prevent people from hanging out with friends and family. Moreover, distancing policies make it nearly impossible to add to one’s social circle.

With the closure of bars and any club or venue in which people would be in close proximity, along with the universal 2 meter rule, it is next to impossible for people to make new friends or romantic partners. As long as people practice distancing, mandated or voluntary, there will be a large segment of the population that is acutely isolated and lonely. Serial loneliness is the legacy of lockdowns, and few realize its magnitude.

Literature on loneliness indicates that it robs people of approximately 10 years of life, on average. Ten years is also the average decrease in longevity seen by smokers. Obesity, the elephant of developed world health risks, statistically cuts life short by an average of only 2.7 years according to the OECD. The mechanisms by which loneliness results in early death are varied. It seems that loneliness works at least as much by affecting physiology directly as by influencing lifestyle and behaviors. 

It is important to note that the studies on loneliness and social isolation center on people who have basically normal lives but lack close friendship and an active social life. The subjects in the studies usually have jobs or attend school in which they regularly interact with others. The social deprivation that people now experience as a result of social distancing is an entirely different animal.

Today, people are either working alone at home or if they go to work, they are forced to stay away from their coworkers. When not at work, they are generally stuck at home, not allowed to even visit family, attend church, participate in a club, or engage in other activities in which the friend-deprived have conventionally been able to get some socialization. More relevant, perhaps, are studies on solitary confinement of prisoners, in which long-term disintegration of the mind and personality are commonplace.

Why not just go online?

Quote:
It is not possible to adequately mitigate the loneliness epidemic created by social distancing. Internet dating sites do not work well for men; only a small percentage are able to get dates that way. Moreover, people are too afraid to meet in person for fear of catching coronavirus even if they meet someone online that they are interested in. Social psychologists have noted that most relationships, romantic or platonic, emerge from physical proximity, such as attending the same class or church. “Cyber-living” has scant potential to compensate for a withdrawal from the real world. The only solution to prevent loneliness from killing hundreds of millions of people is for civil rights to be reinstated and social distancing to end.

JKR

We all know loneliness is extremely detrimental but unfortunately so is Covid.

Aristotleded24

JKR wrote:
We all know loneliness is extremely detrimental but unfortunately so is Covid.

And loneliness kills people at much younger ages than the average age of death from covid.

God I am sick of this dismissive attitude towards the negative impact of social distancing with this "bud covid!" response.

JKR

You do realize that social distancing is caused by Covid or is that also too inconvenient for you too?

Aristotleded24

Social distancing is how most countries have chosen to respond to covid. Belarus has not gone down the social distancing route, and in spite of being at the top of a massive second wave, is not a basketcase of death.

Pondering

The only thing that matters is our local health facilities. They are not being overwhelmed by people suffering from economic or social hardships nor are those conditions contagious. 

Lifting restrictions will do nothing to help the people suffering from the fallout because within weeks covid cases would be overwhelming our hospitals. We only need look at conditions in our own communities. As soon as the weather drove people indoors cases rose and started stressing the health care system requiring stricter conditions. I knew it was coming long before the government said so. It won't be ending on January 11th either. Between now and April, in Montreal, every loosening restriction will increase the number of hospitalizations within 3 to 6 weeks. Between now and when everyone is vaccinated Legault will be toying with the restrictions because he wants to be fully open as soon as possible. He is trying to maintain a target just below what will cause the system to collapse. He wants stores open and paying taxes. 

What I see with my own eyes in my own community, rapid human to human transmission, is widely confirmed by scientists and health care professionals throughout the world. 

Outliers do not disprove broadbased observations. 

According to Stepan Putilo, an independent Belarusian journalist and owner of the NEXTA Telegram channel, the government had falsified the official data on the COVID-19 pandemic progression in Belarus and published significantly lowered numbers. On 11 May 2020, with reference to "documents from the Presidential Administration of Belarus", NEXTA concluded that a daily gain of more than a thousand COVID-19 cases had been reached "a couple of days ago", while the number of total COVID-19 cases in Belarus was as high as 26,348, with 166 COVID-19 patients requiring assisted ventilation......

 

On 30 April, the head physician of the Vitebsk Clinical Emergency Hospital, Sergey Lazar, was relieved of his position shortly after the publication of his interview with TuT.By, where he criticized the counter-pandemic measures taken by the government and mentioned the shortage of medical protective equipment.[382][383] According to the press-secretary of the Ministry of Health, Yulia Borodun, Sergey Lazar's dismissal was not related to the publication.[383]

This is why your arguments and links are tedious and boring. No matter how many times we debunk one of your factual claims you come back with it again. 

You never deal with the issue of local hospitals and local health care workers claiming they can't deal with the flow. 

JKR

Aristotleded24 wrote:

And loneliness kills people at much younger ages than the average age of death from covid.

God I am sick of this dismissive attitude towards the negative impact of social distancing with this "bud covid!" response.

I agree with you that living with Covid during the last 10 months has really sucked to say the least. I agree that peoples struggles with social distancing has not been anywhere near adequately acknowledged. I also agree that it's been very hard for younger people to social distance during the most social part of their lives. I do think that Covid has shown us clearly that we need to do more about improving areas of our lives like our mental health systems and many other important areas such as our health care in general, housing, income inequality, the environment and many other things. We need much higher rates for social assistance, disability pensions, and the old age supplement. We need universal childcare. We also need to have Medicare include pharmacare, dentistry, optometry, home care, and long term care. Post-secondary education should basically be free. Minimum wages should be increased. Recreational activities should be open to all people. Hopefully we'll learn from this difficult period together and that will help improve the world for everyone.

NDPP

Not views I share but clearly others do:

OCLA Research Report 2020-1

https://ocla.ca/ocla-research-report-2020-1/

"The OCLA has published a research report authored by OCLA researcher Dr Denis Rancourt. The report is entitled 'Criticism of Government Response to COVID-19 in Canada:

'We review the scientific literature about general-population lockdown and social-distancing measures, which is relevant to mitigation policy in Canada. Federal and provincial government responses to and communications about COVID-19 have been irresponsible. The latest research implies that the government interventions to 'flatten the curve' risk causing significant additional cumulative COVID-19 deaths, due to seasonal driving of transmissibility and delayed social immunity..."

NDPP

WATCH: Happy New Year from the COVID Pigs

https://twitter.com/Nosakan007/status/1345150743129501700

 

Pondering

NDPP wrote:

Not views I share but clearly others do:

OCLA Research Report 2020-1

https://ocla.ca/ocla-research-report-2020-1/

"The OCLA has published a research report authored by OCLA researcher Dr Denis Rancourt. The report is entitled 'Criticism of Government Response to COVID-19 in Canada:

'We review the scientific literature about general-population lockdown and social-distancing measures, which is relevant to mitigation policy in Canada. Federal and provincial government responses to and communications about COVID-19 have been irresponsible. The latest research implies that the government interventions to 'flatten the curve' risk causing significant additional cumulative COVID-19 deaths, due to seasonal driving of transmissibility and delayed social immunity..."

Because they are biased. Their focus is civil liberties not Covid 19. " delayed societal immunity"  is herd immunity. The notion of letting people catch Covid to develop herd immunity has been debunked multiple times. 

It always comes down to a single question. If we lift all restrictions, can the heath care system survive?  If the answer to that were "yes" there would be no restrictions. Politicians would love to be able to open everything up. 

Putting up field hospitals is a very bad sign. They can't conjure up staff. It means the system is on the brink. 

With restrictions end of January to April are going to be tough. Without restrictions the system would collapse. 

Basic facts and basic logic beats theory. 

Aristotleded24

NDPP wrote:

Not views I share but clearly others do:

OCLA Research Report 2020-1

https://ocla.ca/ocla-research-report-2020-1/

"The OCLA has published a research report authored by OCLA researcher Dr Denis Rancourt. The report is entitled 'Criticism of Government Response to COVID-19 in Canada:

'We review the scientific literature about general-population lockdown and social-distancing measures, which is relevant to mitigation policy in Canada. Federal and provincial government responses to and communications about COVID-19 have been irresponsible. The latest research implies that the government interventions to 'flatten the curve' risk causing significant additional cumulative COVID-19 deaths, due to seasonal driving of transmissibility and delayed social immunity..."

I actually wonder if our attempts to supress the virus over the summer did more harm than good. I don't think there was cause to be concerned about out-of-control spread in the summer because warmer weather tends to supress the spread of respiratory illnesses quite well. I'm wondering if maybe we would have been in a better situation if the virus had not been actively suppressed over the summer. Hospitals generally don't have high numbers of people for respiratory viruses in the summer, and I do think the case load would have been above baseline, but I think the hosptials would have been able to handle additional cases. I also think that things like more outdoor exercise, exposure to the sun from Vitamin D, and even possibly lower viral load from not being inside would have dramatically improved a person's odds against covid over the summer than they would experience now. That may have resulted in a higher level of population immunity to covid once the cooler weather hit, which might have controlled the spread and our numbers wouldn't be so high right now.

Pondering

Letting people catch it to create herd immunity has been debunked multiple times. I don't know about other places but in Quebec restrictions were loosened for the summer.  Bars opened. People filled the parks. Children attended daycamps. 

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