The 2011 Election prediction contest

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Arthur Cramer wrote:

How did  you do last time around? By the way, where does the extra New Dem seat in MB come from. I really hope that you are right?

I didn't make a prediction last time.

If you want specifics, I expect Duguid to knock off Bruinooge in Winnipeg South. That extra NDP seat comes from Selkirk.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Wow, Selkirk, would that ever be sweet!

My dad was very close friends with Allan Sargent, father of former NDP MP, Terry Sargent, who is an extermely nice guy. That would be such a wonderful outcome for the evening.

I hope you are right; I have no feel at all for Selkirk, so I am going to just accept  you know what you are talking about. That would be just the sweetest moment of the night for me. And for my dad and Al Sargent, they'd be drinking scotch up in heaven



Arthur Cramer wrote:
I have no feel at all for Selkirk

Just a guess based on the fact that Selkirk is the lowest-hanging fruit of the rural Tory seats, but if the NDP numbers in Manitoba are as good as some polls have suggested, Dauphin and Brandon are also in play.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture


I am absolutely convinced that the Libs won't work with the NDP in the next house period. For them, it is not about what is good for people. It is entirely about power. I have alwys been amazed at how they have had power, and then either squandered it, or stuck it to oridnarily working people.

I think that will finish them. Either way, if the NDP gets Official opposition status, I absolutely believe that would be bad news for the Libs. It doesn't necessarily mean its fatal, but if the NDP does a good enough job in Parliment, it could be a real and permanent sea-change.



Conservative 141

NDP 89

Lib 52


Ind 1

Green 0

I don't believe May will win in SGI, as I don't think Lunn's vote can be down that much, but I would be happy to see him defeated, even though she would be insufferable. Arthur is touch and go in Portneuf-Jacques-Cartier. I'm being a little pessimistic in Atlantic Canada in particular; if some of the regionals in the various polls are correct there could be some really pleasant surprises across the country. Note NDP plus Liberals = Conservatives, but that wasn't by design. If NDP really is at 33-34 percent rather than 30-31 there should be many more seats for us, but where they are and at the expense of whom depends on the regional numbers and concentrations within regions. Incumbancy may save many Liberals in Ontario.

Malcolm Malcolm's picture

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Are you nervous at all about Iggy having a surge in the GTA? What do you think Nanos will show tommorow (I hate Nanos; I think there is something about how he gets his numbers). And, what do you thing Graves will show?

Boy, this thing is chewing me up. I really hope Beckie Blakie comes through. I am absolutely she will; I think she will win by somewhere 1000 and 3000 votes. What about you on this Ari? How close do you think I am?

Love reading your comments guys. Malcom, you really have helped me level out; I was bouncing all over the place earlier.


My sense is that an Ignatieff surge in the GTA would save some of the furniture for them and would help in the post election math, keeping the HarperCons farther from a majority and the Libs large enough to make a deal - if they'll make one.  But what do I know?  I'm in Regina.

Glad to keep you on an even keel.  We navy types have to stick together.  Ready, Aye, Ready.

Have a good BOA tomorrow.  Will you be at CHW?


OK, I'm exercising my right to change my mind again:

CPC 151

NDP  74

LIB   52

BQ   30

GRN   1

Lard Tunderin Jeezus Lard Tunderin Jeezus's picture

Other than May winning her seat, I think ghoris has the numbers just about right. My tweak on it:

CPC 150

NDP 77

LIB 51

BQ 30


CPC - 124

NDP - 87

Liberal - 66

BQ - 29

Green - 2


What the heck


Cons 125
NDP  120
Libs    55
Bloc     7
Green   1


Thanks, LTJ. Your 'tweaks' all seem reasonable. While May winning her seat is by no means assured, I have to think that given that she's basically spent the entire campaign there, they've got a huge number of workers, and that the whole Green Party effort this time has been focused on getting her elected (with really no national campaign to speak of) she's got a good chance of pulling it off. Watch for Adriane Carr to have a strong (possibly second-place) finish against Hedy Fry in Vancouver Centre too.


CPC - 147

NDP - 80

LPC - 56

BQ - 24

Ind - 1


CPC - 133

NDP - 113

Liberal - 45

BLOC - 15

Green - 2

peterjcassidy peterjcassidy's picture

edmundoconnor wrote:

With those numbers, peter, you could measure the number of Liberal floor crossers by the scorch marks on the carpet.

True,  and a nomination for the Babble Hall of Fame.

Jahiegel Jahiegel's picture

CPC - 145

NDP - 82

LPC - 60

BQ - 20

Ind - 1 (André Arthur)

Ken Burch

My SERIOUS prediction

CPC - 125

NDP - 120

LPC - 40

BQ - 20

Ind - 1

GPC - 2 (I'm going out on a limb and saying May AND Carr both win)

Steve_Shutt Steve_Shutt's picture

My cautious/hopeful prediction:

Harper's Blue Meanies - 144
Jack's Orange Crush - 86
Iggy's Red Sunset - 50
Gilles' Bloc-Heads - 27
Lizzy's Green Girl - 1

More Orange for Blue but had you asked me a month ago if I would have been ok with this I would have taken these numbers in a heartbeat. We Can Do This.

Basement Dweller

CON 141

NDP 98

LIB 40

BQ 28

GR 01



Cons  146

NDP   92

Libs   49

Bloc  21

Cons  37%

NDP   32%

Libs   21%

Bloc     5%

Greens  4%

Other    1%


babbler 8

Canada Con 142, NDP 103, Lib 42, BQ 20, IND 1


Atlantic Canada Con 12, Lib 12, NDP 8 (2 in NF, 1 in NB, 5 in NS)

Quebec Con 3, Lib 2, NDP 49, BQ 20, IND 1

Ontario Con 61, Lib 22, NDP 23

Manitoba Con 9, Lib 1, NDP 4

Saskatchewan Con 11, Lib 1, NDP 2

Alberta Con 26, NDP 2

British Columbia Con 19, Lib 3, NDP 14

Yukon/NWT/Nunavut Con 1, Lib 1, NDP 1


The independent is the conservative in Quebec.

May has an outside chance to take a seat from the Conservatives.

The NDP's David Parker beats Peter McKay in Central Nova.


I also predict the Libs will back the Conservatives in a minority government. We'd see a similar government but a much better opposition. This is still an improvement and gives the NDP a good shot at a majority next time.


Two other possibilities:

1. If Ontario and Saskatchewan can push the NDP over the edge if there is a last minute swing in those parts. This would give them enough seats to justify the Liberals backing them in a Minority and not requiring the BQ to also support the NDP

2. The Liberals could get virtually wiped out which could give the Conservatives a bare majority or give the BQ the balance of power which they would use to back the NDP.



Lard Tunderin Jeezus wrote:

Other than May winning her seat, I think ghoris has the numbers just about right. My tweak on it:

CPC 150

NDP 77

LIB 51

BQ 30

I think this is likely close.  I don't think the Liberals will get blown out below 50 seats.  They could even keep 60 if Toronto holds.


Closed for length.


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