2015 NDP candidate draft

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Brian Topp Brian Topp's picture

scott16 wrote:

Has Brian Topp decided if he is running and in what riding?

 

maybe a new thread?

 

Nope.

 

As the song goes, "First, we take Toronto..."

 

 

janfromthebruce

Brian Topp wrote:

scott16 wrote:

Has Brian Topp decided if he is running and in what riding?

 

maybe a new thread?

waves to Brian!

Nope.

 

As the song goes, "First, we take Toronto..."

 

 

Brachina

 Ah the Chow Campaign for Mayor I'm guessing, awesome Brian!

Winston

Or the campaign to take Queen's Park for Andrea?

Brachina wrote:

 Ah the Chow Campaign for Mayor I'm guessing, awesome Brian!

Brian Topp Brian Topp's picture

Winston wrote:

Or the campaign to take Queen's Park for Andrea?

Brachina wrote:

 Ah the Chow Campaign for Mayor I'm guessing, awesome Brian!

Both of those are excellent projects.

I think Andrea has the best shot to elect an NDP government in Ontario since 1990 -- and I'm amazed at how many people from other parties feel the same way.

Olivia hasn't made a final call on standing in Toronto but I'm one of many ("many many many", as Ford would say) of her friends encouraging her to stand. She'd made an excellent mayor -- a compelling life story; the right priorities; and some tough knocks in recent years that have helped make her a very thoughtful and wise person, I think.

Pretty good sense of humour, too.

As Tommy Douglas once said in different circumstances, if you can take power, you should.

Aristotleded24

Brian Topp wrote:
the right priorities

Don't you mean, "the left priorities?" ;)

scott16

what about darcy furber in prince albert? what has he been up to since he lost his seat?

How about David Orchard and Maria Mourani?

mark_alfred

David Orchard?  Do you mean the former Progressive Conservative who split with the party after they merged with the Alliance?  I think he joined the Liberals.

David Young

mark_alfred wrote:

David Orchard?  Do you mean the former Progressive Conservative who split with the party after they merged with the Alliance?  I think he joined the Liberals.

Given that the Liberals seem to be trying to become the new Progressive Conservatives, David Orchard would be much more in step with them, don't you think?

 

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Orchard will run as a Liberal; he isn't a progressive. He's a Red Tory and knows Trudeau is one too. Don't expect many if any "prominent" Canadians to run for the NDP. They are Corporatists first and foremost. They'll run LPC cuz they think Trudeau will make them a cabinet minister. Its ENTIRELY about POWER. THAT'S ALL!

janfromthebruce

And there are progressive prominent Cnds who do run for the NDP just not the ones who run for other parties.

Wilf Day

I should have included:

Courtenay—Alberni: Conservative by 2103 votes, 3.72%, down from 8.08%
Vancouver Island North—Comox—Powell River: Conservative by 2175 votes, 4.27%
Vancouver Centre: Liberal by 1919 votes, 4.63%
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River: Conservative by 461 votes, 2.17%
Elmwood—Transcona: Conservative by 610 votes, 1.79%
Bas-Richelieu—Nicolet—Bécancour: Bloc Québécois by 1340 votes, 2.7%
Richmond—Arthabaska: Bloc Québécois by 717 votes, 1.34%
Lévis—Lotbinière: Conservative by 550 votes, 1.04%
Ahuntsic-Cartierville: Liberal by 579 votes, 1.19%
South Shore—St. Margarets: Conservative by 2779 votes, 5.91%, down from 7.01%.

Wilf Day

The Conservatives are madly declaring candidacies for new ridings and other open ridings.

Here's a rundown of the NDP's good open ridings:

Jean Crowder, who will be 63 in 2015, has announced she will not run in 2015, leaving:

1) Cowichan—Malahat—Langford, with a transposed NDP majority of 291 votes, 0.61%, although it is the successor to Nanaimo—Cowichan which was NDP by 6775 votes, 10.59%.

2) Nanaimo—Ladysmith, with a transposed NDP majority of 2448 votes, 4.28%, actually one of BC's six new ridings.

Saskatoon West (which Kelly Block is fleeing), with a transposed NDP majority of 2663 votes, 8.72%

Regina—Lewvan (which Tom Lukiwski is fleeing), with a transposed NDP majority of 609 votes, 1.59%.

Winnipeg North, NDP by 102 votes, 0.38%.

University—Rosedale (NDP by 5891 votes, 12.33%).

If Olivia Chow does not run here again, Spadina—Fort York, NDP by 9341 votes, 25.56%.

Brampton East (NDP by 2012 votes, 6.93%), assuming Bal Gosal runs in the new riding of Brampton Centre, Conservative by 7280 votes, 21.29%, although I cannot find where he has said he will do so.

Thunder Bay—Superior North, NDP by 7679 votes, 20.37%.

Sault Ste. Marie, Conservative by only 1231 votes, 3.03%, down from 1861 votes, 4.21%. If the Liberals (7993 votes in 2011, 19.66%) take votes from the Conservatives, the NDP gets the Sault back.

Scarborough Centre:

Conservative 12,771 votes, 34.89%

Liberal 11,685votes, 31.92%

NDP 11,211 votes, 30.62%

Scarborough--Rouge Park:
Liberal 14,201 votes, 34.76%

Conservative 12,915 votes, 31.62%

NDP 12,643 votes, 30.95%

Blainville, NDP by 10724 votes, 22.2%. The larger part of Charmaine Borg’s Terrebonne-Blainville riding goes to the new Terrebonne, NDP by 10320 votes, 20.76%, but she has not announced which nomination she will seek.

Mirabel, NDP by 8796 votes, 18.53%. I expect Mylène Freeman could run here if she thought it was better than her successor riding of Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation (NDP by 9553 votes, 21.75%.) In either case the Liberals ran fourth in 2011, but were stronger in Argenteuil—La Petite-Nation.

La Prairie, NDP by 12271 votes, 24.2%, is open. Hoang Mai (MP for Brossard--La Prairie) has declared he will run in his successor riding of Brossard—Saint-Lambert, even though it was NDP by only 1994 votes, 4.07%. But Sylvain Chicoine, elected in Châteauguay--Saint-Constant whose successor is Châteauguay—Lacolle (NDP by 9896 votes, 21.8%), lives in Delson, in the Saint-Constant part of Châteauguay--Saint Constant, in the new La Prairie where the NDP won every poll but one in the La Prairie part of Brossard--La Prairie. I expect Sylvain Chicoine might want to run in La Prairie, in which case the open riding is:
Châteauguay—Lacolle (NDP by 9896 votes, 21.8%).

Jonquière, NDP by 3922 votes, 8.39%
Saint-Maurice--Champlain, NDP by 7103 votes, 12.81%. 

David Young

Wilf Day wrote:

I should have included:

Courtenay—Alberni: Conservative by 2103 votes, 3.72%, down from 8.08%
Vancouver Island North—Comox—Powell River: Conservative by 2175 votes, 4.27%
Vancouver Centre: Liberal by 1919 votes, 4.63%
Desnethé—Missinippi—Churchill River: Conservative by 461 votes, 2.17%
Elmwood—Transcona: Conservative by 610 votes, 1.79%
Bas-Richelieu—Nicolet—Bécancour: Bloc Québécois by 1340 votes, 2.7%
Richmond—Arthabaska: Bloc Québécois by 717 votes, 1.34%
Lévis—Lotbinière: Conservative by 550 votes, 1.04%
Ahuntsic-Cartierville: Liberal by 579 votes, 1.19%
South Shore—St. Margarets: Conservative by 2779 votes, 5.91%, down from 7.01%.

 

Wilf, I have some news for you in South Shore-St. Margaret's.

Former provincial M.L.A. for Lunenburg, Pam Birdsall, has indicated that she will be seeking the federal NDP nomination in S.S.S.M. for the 2015 election.

Pam would be the first female candidate for the NDP (or C.C.F.) along the South Shore.

 

 

scott16

Do you have a link to Pam Birdsall saying that? Has Keddy said what he is doing in 2015?

Has there been any annoucements from other possible pickups for the NDP?

Has anyone heard anything about Shannon Phillips in Lethbridge? I think Tom should speak with her about running.

 

 

SocDem
David Young

scott16 wrote:

Do you have a link to Pam Birdsall saying that? Has Keddy said what he is doing in 2015?

I was in a meeting with Pam on Sunday afternoon when she made the announcement that she wouldn't be the NDP candidate for Lunenburg in the next provincial election...because she was going to be far too busy being the first female (and NDP) M.P. for South Shore-St. Margaret's after the 2015 federal election, so there hasn't yet been anything in the print media (not that the local newspaper would ever run big-time with a story like this!).  If it does appear in the Chronicle Herald, I'll try to post the link.

As for Keddy?  Who knows?  He knows he'll never make it into cabinet, so he could decide to take his 18-year pension and retire in 2015.

Stay tuned.

 

 

theleftyinvestor

While there are definitely a few good targets for new wins, the federal NDP should learn an important lesson from the BC election - fight for your incumbents with all you've got, and don't let other goals distract you from it. With the polling trends of late, it's clear that many of the re-election battles will be very challenging. Few seats are safe.

felixr

Many NDP incumbents could be vulnerable, and not just in Quebec (think Toronto), because in 2011 there was a wave, that had ripples elsewhere.

David Young

[quote=scott16]

Do you have a link to Pam Birdsall saying that?

I do now!

The local radio station, C.K.B.W. Bridgewater, N.S. ran a news clip today of Pam announcing her intention of seeking the NDP nomination in South Shore-St. Margaret's.

http://ckbwnews.blogspot.ca/search?q=Pam+Birdsall

Scroll down to see the article.

 

 

 

theleftyinvestor

felixr wrote:

Many NDP incumbents could be vulnerable, and not just in Quebec (think Toronto), because in 2011 there was a wave, that had ripples elsewhere.

Moreover, since the Martin years the NDP has seen a gradual improvement of its fortunes (and Liberals have seen a gradual decrease) and picked up many seats that one might be tempted to say are now safe - but with the first sustained reversal of that trend in support, a lot of those seats are in play.

Wilf Day

If I were helping Elizabeth May consider the possibility of endorsing a few NDP candidates where the NDP could overtake the Conservative, I would also look at:

Burnaby North—Seymour: Conservative by 3957 votes, 9.22%
Fleetwood—Port Kells: Conservative by 5098 votes, 14.68%

Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo: Conservative by 8598 votes, 15.36%

Kootenay—Columbia: Conservative by 5785 votes, 10.88%

Edmonton Griesbach: Conservative by 5628 votes, 14.96%

Saskatoon—Grasswood: Conservative by 3740 votes, 10.36%

Saskatoon—University: Conservative by 3715 votes, 10.67%

Regina—Qu'Appelle: Conservative by 4424 votes, 14.56%

Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas: Conservative by 7574 votes, 14.2%

Essex: Conservative by 6622 votes, 13.31%

Oshawa: Conservative by 7360 votes, 14.03%

Bellechasse—Les Etchemins--Lévis: Conservative by 4721 votes, 8.77%

Lac-Saint-Jean: Conservative by 5498 votes, 10.12%

Avignon—La Mitis--Matane--Matapédia: Bloc Québécois by 2882 votes, 7.88%

With the two previous lists, that's 36 more MPs than the 103 elected in 2011, so a possible 139 MPs out of 338, but 170 is a majority. I bet some ridings have local circumstances making them possible targets. Who did I leave out?  

Centrist

Wilf Day wrote:
If I were helping Elizabeth May consider the possibility of endorsing a few NDP candidates where the NDP could overtake the Conservative, I would also look at:

Burnaby North—Seymour: Conservative by 3957 votes, 9.22%

Fleetwood—Port Kells: Conservative by 5098 votes, 14.68%

Kamloops—Thompson—Cariboo: Conservative by 8598 votes, 15.36%

Kootenay—Columbia: Conservative by 5785 votes, 10.88%

While it ain't gonna happen, Green Party endorsements in the foregoing BC federal seats would be akin to a political kiss of death IMHO based upon the competing May, 2013 BC provincial election narratives and results thereto with the deep schism between enviro v. resource development voters.

While an inner suburban seat such as Burnaby North—Seymour would be the least affected - even in the provincial riding of Burnaby North, the BC NDP lost slightly more votes than the BC Libs over the 2009 provincial election.

The BC NDP held the provincial suburban riding of Surrey-Fleetwood during the 2005 and 2009 BC provincial elections with a 10% margin even in '09. The BC NDP lost that seat in '13.

The BC Libs also had major overall vote gains in the Kamloops/Cariboo/Kootenay/Columbia provincial ridings while the BC NDP suffered major overall vote losses over 2009 in the same areas. Not good.

A Green endorsement of another party would only have positive impact within the urban core seats such as Vancouver Centre and Victoria. Problem is that the Greens will likey target those 2 seats with major resources in 2015.

Stockholm

The Greens endorsed the Liberal in the Labrador Byelection and it the Liberals won and the endorsement appears not to have done them any harm...and there is no place in Canada where the Green brand is more toxic that in seal hunt friendly Newfoundland and Labrador!

Wilf Day

Wilf Day wrote:

The Conservatives are madly declaring candidacies for new ridings and other open ridings.

Here's a rundown of the NDP's good open ridings . . . .

Brampton East (NDP by 2001 votes, 6.9%), assuming Bal Gosal runs in the new riding of Brampton Centre, Conservative by 7496 votes, 21.0%, although I cannot find where he has said he will do so.

He has now.  

(Exact figures above have been updated.)

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