2019 polls part 2

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MegB
2019 polls part 2

Continued from here.

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NorthReport
NorthReport
Badriya

It looks as if most Green suppport (6/7%) has migrated to the Cons.  

ctrl190

The mainstream media keeps on repeating that the Greens and NDP are "neck and neck," but every polls has the NDP 6 to 8 points ahead.

NorthReport

Welcome to the world of Canada’s media - get used to it!

bekayne

ctrl190 wrote:

The mainstream media keeps on repeating that the Greens and NDP are "neck and neck," but every polls has the NDP 6 to 8 points ahead.

And right on cue:

New Leger Poll

Lib 34 / Con 33 (-2) / NDP 12 (+1) / Green 11 / PPC 4 (+1)

https://www.cp24.com/news/front-runners-deadlocked-after-week-1-of-campaign-but-small-signs-favour-liberals-1.4598346?cache=yes%3FclipId%3D89926

bekayne

bekayne

KarlL

bekayne wrote:

 

I think most people know this already but the nightly sample for Nanos is 400, though the numbers presented each day are from a rolling three-day sample of 1,200.  

Leger's sample is 1,598, and over the three most recent nights, so presumably carries about 1/3 more weight in Polltracker than the Nanos numbers.  Eric Grenier uses some unrevealed formula to weight polls: "Weight refers to the weight (out of 100) the poll carries in the aggregation. Weight is determined by the date of the survey, the sample size and the track record of the polling firm.".   

NorthReport

I can 100 per cent guarantee you that if the CBC comments in any way on any polls it will be Liberals good and the NDP bad

NorthReport

Even though the Conservatives are leading in the polls, with their huge majorities on the Prairies, the Liberals will win the most number of seats, but the next to worst result would be a Liberal majority, so progressives need to ensure that does not happen 

https://election.ctvnews.ca/conservatives-pull-ahead-in-a-two-way-race-locked-in-the-margin-of-error-nanos-1.4598495

KarlL

NorthReport wrote:

Even though the Conservatives are leading in the polls, with their huge majorities on the Prairies, the Liberals will win the most number of seats, but the next to worst result would be a Liberal majority, so progressives need to ensure that does not happen 

https://election.ctvnews.ca/conservatives-pull-ahead-in-a-two-way-race-locked-in-the-margin-of-error-nanos-1.4598495

 

Actually, the polls are split as to who is leading, with Nanos seeing a Conservative upward trend, and several others (Forum and Abacus plus whoever is polling for the Sun) also showing Conservative leads within or close to the margin of error). 

Leger, Mainstreet and the now somewhat dated EKOS polls have the Liberals ahead, again by small margins.  Ipsos shows a tie in its last poll.

Here are today's Mainstreet 3-day rolling numbers released today:

Liberals 36.8% Conservatives 34.8%, NDP  9.7%, Green 9.4%, Bloc Québécois 4.5%, People’s Party 3.8%

pietro_bcc

The number of people who are polled doesn't indicate how accurate the poll is. There is a minimum number of people you have to poll in each region to have a representative sample, but any increase in numbers of people polled above that has an extremely marginal effect on the margin of error. What matters in methodology, not sample size.

NorthReport

Conservatives increase lead over Liberals and heading in direction of majority government

Thanks to Trudeau Butts and Telford this election race looks like it is being handed to the Cons on a platter as Cons begin to pull away from the Libs in latest polling

https://secureservercdn.net/198.71.233.47/823.910.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/2019-1445-CTV-Globe-ELXN-Ballot-Ending-September-18-2019-MORNING-PACKAGE.pdf

josh

Conservatives increase lead over Liberals and heading in direction of majority government

I just walked a few steps in a northerly direction.  I guess that means I'm heading the direction of the North Pole.

NorthReport

First the Conservatives were behind

Then the Conservatives were tied

Then the Conservatives were one per cent ahead 

Then the Conservatives were two per cent ahead 

Now the Conservatives are three per cent ahead

And now the biggest scandal to hit the Trudeau Liberals since Trudeau got into politics hits last nite

Yes, everything is wonderful in Liberal La La Land

 

josh

Bigger than the SNC-Lavalin scandal? 

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

I got a call on my cell so I did a poll yesterday.

bekayne

kropotkin1951 wrote:

I got a call on my cell so I did a poll yesterday.

From whom?

NorthReport

More bad news

According to Nanos, Sheer is closing the gap with Trudeau for most popular Leader. WTF!!!

JKR

NorthReport wrote:

More bad news

According to Nanos, Sheer is closing the gap with Trudeau for most popular Leader. WTF!!!

What do Singh’s and May’s numbers look like?

melovesproles

The Canadian public's reaction to the SNC Lavalin scandal should have been a wake-up call to Liberals that Trudeau was damaging their brand. This hurts the Liberals because it plays into the same narrative of Trudeau's insincerity and hypochrisy.  

Jettisioning electoral reform and spending billions on a pipeline were done with the same Liberal arrogance that kept them out of power for several Harper governments. They assumed a majority meant a return to the salad days of promising universal daycare during campaigns and gutting social democracy while in power. But when your whole platform is empty rhetoric, having a politically savvy leader like Chretien with working class roots is more effective than being led by a privileged pretty face with the political instincts of a potato.

NorthReport

NDP support has now tripled Green support in the most recent poll for Nanos.

What in the world is May doing at a JWR event, or does May want the NDP to quadruple the Green support?

josh
Aristotleded24

melovesproles wrote:
The Canadian public's reaction to the SNC Lavalin scandal should have been a wake-up call to Liberals that Trudeau was damaging their brand. This hurts the Liberals because it plays into the same narrative of Trudeau's insincerity and hypochrisy.

Before SNC Lavalin, I was convinced that whatever reservations people had about Trudeau, that they would remember why they threw out the Harper government 4 years ago. What SNC Lavalin has done is to remind Canadians that it is exaclty like what Harper did. That's why the Liberals have struggled to stay ahead in the polls since then.

radiorahim radiorahim's picture

Take all of these polls with a grain of salt because they don't really mean a whole lot in a first past the post election system.   For example at best the Greenies might win a few constituencies on Vancouver Island, but that's about it.   In the rest of the country their support is "a mile wide and an inch thick".    It won't actually generate any seats.   They also simply do not have any kind of serious "on the ground" organization.

Certainly in urban areas of Ontario, the Tories are absolutely detested because of the actions of the provincial government.    As for the Tories in Quebec?   Forget it.    Ontario and Quebec are two thirds of Canada's parliament.

The other thing to keep in mind, is that the NDP is the main opposition party in Ontario.   A lot of the "on the ground" organization from last year's provincial election is still in place.   Whatever happens in the rest of Canada, the NDP will win MORE seats in Ontario.   In my own riding in Toronto, there were over a thousand NDP signs up within a day of the writ being dropped.   The number of volunteers, grows daily.   I see it in the campaign office.

Campaigns actually matter...a whole lot more than polls do.
 

Aristotleded24

There's a similar thing happening here in Winnipeg Centre. It's not numerous, but so far NDP signs outnumber the signs for the Liberal incumbent. It's been about a week and I still barely see Liberal signs.

NorthReport

CTV News/Globe and Mail/Nanos Nightly Tracking > BALLOT > CPC 37.4, LPC 34.2, NDP 12.8, GP 9.3, PPC 2.4 > three nights ending Sept. 19, 2019

https://election.ctvnews.ca/no-drop-so-far-in-liberal-support-after-bombshell-revelations-nanos-1.4602168

bekayne
NorthReport

More good news for the NDP

The Liberals, Tories and Greens have all fallen slightly in Mainstreet Research’s latest national polling numbers, while the NDP, Bloc Québécois and People’s Party enjoyed moderate bumps in support.

JKR

NorthReport wrote:

More good news for the NDP

The Liberals, Tories and Greens have all fallen slightly in Mainstreet Research’s latest national polling numbers, while the NDP, Bloc Québécois and People’s Party enjoyed moderate bumps in support.

What number are the NDP polling at in this Mainstreet poll?

jerrym

NorthReport wrote:

CTV News/Globe and Mail/Nanos Nightly Tracking > BALLOT > CPC 37.4, LPC 34.2, NDP 12.8, GP 9.3, PPC 2.4 > three nights ending Sept. 19, 2019

https://election.ctvnews.ca/no-drop-so-far-in-liberal-support-after-bombshell-revelations-nanos-1.4602168

Here are more details from this poll. 

There are some new daily numbers out from Nanos since all of this broke. The changes are small enough that they could be sampling noise but they are not implausible results of what has happened since many people from all parties say Singh has performed best in addressing this issue. 

On which party one supports:  

Cons 37.4 (- 0.4)

Libs 34.2 (- 0.8)

NDP (12.8) (+1.0)

Greens 9.3 (+1.6)

On who is the best PM

Trudeau 31.9 (+0.2)

Scheer 29.3 (-1.0)

Singh 9.4 (+1.5)

May (8.5 no change)

Trudeau's performance in somewhat addressing the race issue may have neutralized some of the bleeding from the potential Liberal vote. 

I don't want to overread this but Singh's rise above May may well be related to people's assessment of how well he dealt with this issue.

Scheer's drop may be related to his overplaying his hand in criticism and not being willing to address his own parties' problems on racism  or his own 2005 comments on same-sex marriage more vocally.

The Greens getting a greater share of the increase in voter support than the NDP, while Singh surpasses May may reflect the fact that on non-environmental issues the Greens are closer to the Liberals than the NDP are to the Liberals.

I have not been surprised that May has been ahead of Singh earlier because many voters barely knew Singh and the little media coverage he had got was mostly negative while May has been well-known for more than a decade.

Could this all be background noise yes? Could it all shift as issues and campaign ads possibly dominate subsequent days. However, I think there is the reasonable possibility of significant growth for the NDP and Singh if he continues to perform well and the party's campaign platform gets a decent hearing. 

bekayne

JKR wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

More good news for the NDP

The Liberals, Tories and Greens have all fallen slightly in Mainstreet Research’s latest national polling numbers, while the NDP, Bloc Québécois and People’s Party enjoyed moderate bumps in support.

What number are the NDP polling at in this Mainstreet poll?

10.1%. That's the "good news".

jerrym

When voters were asked what their three top issues Immigration (14%) came in fifth in a statiscial tie with Housing (15%), behind Health Care (35%), Affordability (27%) which also is closely linked to Housing considering current prices, climate change (25%), and the Economy (24%). However, unsurprisingly, when Immigration voters are examined more closely, we see the undercurrents of racism, making up a significant portion of likely Conservative or PPC voters. 

Those who said immigration is one of their top issues tended to be concerned with reducing it, the poll found.

They were most likely to say Canada accepts too many newcomers (49 per cent) or were concerned about irregular border crossings (31 per cent). Only five per cent of those who said immigration was a top issue said they felt that Canada needs to increase immigration, and six per cent were concerned about Canada aiding in the refugee crisis.

https://globalnews.ca/news/5919488/canada-election-immigration-issue-poll/

JKR

bekayne wrote:

JKR wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

More good news for the NDP

The Liberals, Tories and Greens have all fallen slightly in Mainstreet Research’s latest national polling numbers, while the NDP, Bloc Québécois and People’s Party enjoyed moderate bumps in support.

What number are the NDP polling at in this Mainstreet poll?

10.1%. That's the "good news".

I’d hate to see the bad news.

josh

Both Conservatives and Liberals drop as NDP gains in latest Nanos tracking poll.  Brown-face affair’s impact shown in a full 2 point Liberal drop.

https://secureservercdn.net/198.71.233.47/823.910.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/2019-1445-CTV-Globe-ELXN-Ending-September-20-2019.pdf

swallow swallow's picture

Of course, margins of error mean we have no clear idea if anyone is really rising or falling. Polling can be a social science, but the way it's discussed makes it entertainment more than anything. 

josh

Mainstreet:

LPC 36

CPC 34

NDP 11

GPC 10

Bloc 5

PPC 3

 

NorthReport

 

C 37%

L 32%

N 14%

That’s beginning to become a substantial lead the Cons are at over the Liberals now

If the Liberals under Justin aren’t the answer to stopping the Conservatives, who is?

https://secureservercdn.net/198.71.233.47/823.910.myftpupload.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/2019-1445-CTV-Globe-ELXN-Ending-September-20-2019.pdf

NorthReport

C 36%

L 33%

N 14%

G 10%

P 2%

 

Nanos latest poll

 

josh
JKR

NorthReport wrote:

If the Liberals under Justin aren’t the answer to stopping the Conservatives, who is?

According to the election opinion polls you and others are posting here, for this election Trudeau and Scheer are the only ones who have any real chance of becoming PM. 

josh

Mainstreet tracking.  Liberals take a 2 point drop.

CPC 35

LPC 34

NDP 11

GPC 11

Bloc 5

PPC 4

 

 

NorthReport

In the scheme of things what happens and what kind of damage can Scheer do if he wins the most number of seats but the NDP and the Liberals combined have enough seats to form a minority government?

JKR wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

If the Liberals under Justin aren’t the answer to stopping the Conservatives, who is?

According to the election opinion polls you and others are posting here, for this election Trudeau and Scheer are the only ones who have any real chance of becoming PM. 

laine lowe laine lowe's picture

Lets hope so. A coalition that shuts out the Conservatives would be more than fine for me.

 

JKR

NorthReport wrote:

In the scheme of things what happens and what kind of damage can Scheer do if he wins the most number of seats but the NDP and the Liberals combined have enough seats to form a minority government?

JKR wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

If the Liberals under Justin aren’t the answer to stopping the Conservatives, who is?

According to the election opinion polls you and others are posting here, for this election Trudeau and Scheer are the only ones who have any real chance of becoming PM. 

I agree that a Liberal minority government propped up by the NDP would be the best outcome but that would require a lot of luck with our FPTP system. As it is under FPTP a percentage point or two here or there could give the Conservatives power even if they get little more than a third of the vote.

WWWTT

NorthReport wrote:

In the scheme of things what happens and what kind of damage can Scheer do if he wins the most number of seats but the NDP and the Liberals combined have enough seats to form a minority government?

JKR wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

If the Liberals under Justin aren’t the answer to stopping the Conservatives, who is?

According to the election opinion polls you and others are posting here, for this election Trudeau and Scheer are the only ones who have any real chance of becoming PM. 

Ya lets look at that one a little closer

Who would then be pm? If the liberals got more seats, how much you wanna bet it would be Justin.

Are you suggesting Jag would then agree to form a coalition with brownface racist Justin and prop him up?!?!?!?!

Did you really think your comment through? I don't think so. What fucking world do you live in North Report?

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

laine lowe wrote:

Lets hope so. A coalition that shuts out the Conservatives would be more than fine for me.

 

Especially since the price of such a coalition would have to be electoral reform.  Justin could not get away with ditching that when he could only stay in power with the backing of smaller parties.

Aristotleded24

Ken Burch wrote:

laine lowe wrote:

Lets hope so. A coalition that shuts out the Conservatives would be more than fine for me.

 

Especially since the price of such a coalition would have to be electoral reform.  Justin could not get away with ditching that when he could only stay in power with the backing of smaller parties.

How do we get electoral reform in place when in so many referenda as of late voters have said no? At what point does the electoral reform crowd simply be perceived as another special interest group that can't take no for an answer?

NorthReport

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