2019 polls part 2

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josh

Nanos tracking:

Conservatives: 34% Liberals: 33% NDP: 13% Greens: 11% Bloc Québécois: 6% People’s Party: 3%

KarlL

Abacus Data (Bruce Anderson and David Coleto).  September 23rd release for polling from September 18-22.

Conservative 34%/Liberals 32%/NDP 15%/Green 11%/Bloc 4% (18% in QC)/ PPC 3%

R.E.Wood

WWWTT wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

In the scheme of things what happens and what kind of damage can Scheer do if he wins the most number of seats but the NDP and the Liberals combined have enough seats to form a minority government?

JKR wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

If the Liberals under Justin aren’t the answer to stopping the Conservatives, who is?

According to the election opinion polls you and others are posting here, for this election Trudeau and Scheer are the only ones who have any real chance of becoming PM. 

Ya lets look at that one a little closer

Who would then be pm? If the liberals got more seats, how much you wanna bet it would be Justin.

Are you suggesting Jag would then agree to form a coalition with brownface racist Justin and prop him up?!?!?!?!

Did you really think your comment through? I don't think so. What fucking world do you live in North Report?

Singh himself is saying just that:

Despite Trudeau doing brownface, Singh hasn't ruled out working with Liberals in minority scenario

Days after images and video came to light of Justin Trudeau doing brownface and blackface, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has not ruled out the potential to work with the Liberals in a minority government scenario.

Singh said that he remains open to working with "anyone" who would want to work on advancing the progressive policies that are at the core of the NDP's platform.

"What I want to make clear is there are certain things that are going to help Canadians out, and if there's people who want to work with me to make that happen, I'm prepared to sit down and have a conversation," Singh said.

https://election.ctvnews.ca/despite-trudeau-doing-brownface-singh-hasn-t...

KarlL

A remarkable consistency between the current Nanos and Mainstreet data for the period ending yesterday:

Nanos:   Con 34.3% Lib 33.1% NDP 12.8% Grn 10.6% BQ 5.8% PPC 2.9%

MainSt: Con 34.8% Lib 33.9% NDP 11.4% Grn 10.7% BQ 4.9% PPC 3.6%

 

NorthReport

.

 

josh

Angus Reid

CPC 35

LPC 30

NDP 15

GPC 11

Bloc 6

PPC 3

http://angusreid.org/election-2019-blackface-scandal/

 

NorthReport

Trudeau’s blackface shame darkens Liberal prospects, yet CPC support still remains static

Liberal momentum softens as centre-left voters look again to Greens, NDP

After losing a portion of their 2015 voting based in every poll since April of this year, the NDP has gained in vote retention after the blackface scandal. Half of 2015 New Democrats (51%) say they will support he party again, up from 44 per cent last week​

http://angusreid.org/election-2019-blackface-scandal/

NorthReport

.

WWWTT

R.E.Wood wrote:

WWWTT wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

In the scheme of things what happens and what kind of damage can Scheer do if he wins the most number of seats but the NDP and the Liberals combined have enough seats to form a minority government?

JKR wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

If the Liberals under Justin aren’t the answer to stopping the Conservatives, who is?

According to the election opinion polls you and others are posting here, for this election Trudeau and Scheer are the only ones who have any real chance of becoming PM. 

Ya lets look at that one a little closer

Who would then be pm? If the liberals got more seats, how much you wanna bet it would be Justin.

Are you suggesting Jag would then agree to form a coalition with brownface racist Justin and prop him up?!?!?!?!

Did you really think your comment through? I don't think so. What fucking world do you live in North Report?

Singh himself is saying just that:

Despite Trudeau doing brownface, Singh hasn't ruled out working with Liberals in minority scenario

Days after images and video came to light of Justin Trudeau doing brownface and blackface, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has not ruled out the potential to work with the Liberals in a minority government scenario.

Singh said that he remains open to working with "anyone" who would want to work on advancing the progressive policies that are at the core of the NDP's platform.

"What I want to make clear is there are certain things that are going to help Canadians out, and if there's people who want to work with me to make that happen, I'm prepared to sit down and have a conversation," Singh said.

https://election.ctvnews.ca/despite-trudeau-doing-brownface-singh-hasn-t...

Jag agreed to prop a liberal minority government? He said no such thing in the link you provided! If he did, i'm willing to read it. If anyhting, he's opening the door to work with Scheer.

brookmere

WWWTT wrote:
Jag agreed to prop a liberal minority government? He said no such thing in the link you provided! If he did, i'm willing to read it. If anyhting, he's opening the door to work with Scheer.

"I've only ruled out, Mr. Scheer very clearly, for a very specific policy reasons. The fact that his policies seem to be very unclear around his candidates, around a woman's right to choose, and around same-sex marriage and LGTBQ communities, and the climate crisis. So based on all these policy uncertainties that he’s presenting, I’ve made it very clear that I will not be able to support him," Singh said.

Is that clear enough for you? Anybody but Scheer.

 

NorthReport
KarlL

IPSOS numbers relesed this morning are similar to the DART (Toronto Sun) poll referenced above by North Report.

CON 36% Lib 32% NDP 15% GRN 11% BQ 4% PPC 2%

KarlL

But Nanos has the Liberals regaining the lead:

LIB 35.1% CON 33.5% NDP 12.9% GRN 10.1% BQ 5.7% PPC 2.4%.

Don't yet see the Quebec specific breakdown for the Bloc Quebecois but it would be about 25.4%

NorthReport

That IPSOS poll is devastating for the Liberals

Conservatives gain 4% lead over Liberals in wake of Trudeau’s blackface scandal

https://globalnews.ca/news/5941669/ipsos-poll-liberal-blackface-scandal/

 

josh

EKOS Research (Sept. 18-22, 1,272 surveyed by IVR): 35% CON (+2 since Aug. 29), 32% LIB (-5), 11% NDP (+4), 10% GRN (=), 5% BQ (-1), 4% PPC (=), 3% OTH (=).

NorthReport

Jagmeent Singh's NDP, looking at 338's latest polling charts, appears to be the one party on the rise, at least in BC. 

http://338canada.com/districts/bc.htm

 

NorthReport
KarlL

This morning's Nanos: CON 35.4% LIB 35.3% NDP 12.7% GRN 8.8% BQ 5.5% PPC 2.1%. 

Given that Nanos was the one pollster that had the Liberals leading on yesterday's released 3-day rolling numbers, it seems likely that last night's 400-ish sample was close to the other polls released yesterday, i.e., CONs with around a 3-point lead.

 

 

josh
josh

Innovative Research:  Liberals up 4 among decided voters and all respondents.

https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/2019-Federal-Election-Federal-Vote-Tracking.pdf

NorthReport

Bad news for the Liberals in BC

More than 50% (52% actually) of BCers think Justin Trudeau’s face-painting is a serious issue

https://insightswest.com/news/bc-voters-poll-09-24-2019-federal-vote/?+Contacts+-+BC&utm_term=0_03d4c17a5f-f61b41353a-39857597

KarlL

josh wrote:

Innovative Research:  Liberals up 4 among decided voters and all respondents.

https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/2019-Federal-Election-Federal-Vote-Tracking.pdf

So we have two polls released today (Leger and IRG) that show Liberals ahead and one (Nanos) that shows a tie.  The swing in Nanos from yesterday's Liberal lead to today's tie suggests to me that when they drop the previous day tomorrow the Conservatives may pull ahead in that one.

The Innovative Reasearch Group one is interesting to me, as unlike Frank Graves of EKOS and the more recent iteration of Bruce Anderson of Abacus (formerly a PC), Greg Lyle is a Conservative by background rather than a Liberal or Liberal-ish.  I think of them all as pretty straight arrows, as is Nik Nanos in my experience. 

 

NorthReport
NorthReport

The polling from the official beginning of the campaign shows:

Libs up 3%

Cons down 5.3%

NDP  up 5%

meaning:

Liberals will get the  most number of seats

No need for strategic voting as the Conservatives are no longer a threat.

Progressive voters should voter for the party that comes closest to representing what the voter wants, as opposed to voting out of fear of the non-existent bogeyman. that is consistently being dreged up by the Liberals

Be fully aware of our political history with parties professing they are left only to find out after the election they govern on the right.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Canadian_federal_election#Quebec

KarlL

Nanos numbers for September 26

LIB 35.5% CPN 33.6% NDP 14.7% GRN 9.5% BQ 4.7% PPC 2.0%

That's a Liberal lead of between 1 and 4 points in the last three polls released (IRG, Leger and Nanos), though curiously, the Leger poll seems to have disappeared online.  

josh

Bryan Breguet‏ @2closetocall 33m33 minutes ago

Projections du 26 septembre au matin 142 152 20 4 19 Ind 1

JeffWells

FWIW, Frank Graves on Twitter last night was teasing new EKOS numbers that suggest a "Green Wave" in Quebec. He says they're in second place. (As unlikely as that sounds, EKOS was the first pollster that caught the Orange Wave in 2011, and a lot of pundits found that hard to believe, too.)

NorthReport

Nanos

L - 36%

C - 34%

N - 15%

 

NorthReport

Liberals cling to shrinking minority government after Trudeau blackface scandal: seat projections

 

The projections, released by the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy (LISPOP) on Thursday, are based on a series of polls released between Sept. 20-24 in the days after images and a video of Justin Trudeau surfaced showing the Liberal leader in blackface.

The data draws on a number of surveys and polls from Ipsos, DART, Nanos, Angus Reid, Ekos, Abacus and Forum for an aggregated total of more than 11,000 interviews and attempts to determine how that popular support translates to seats won.

WATCH: Trudeau sits down in first interview since his blackface scandal. Here’s exactly what he said

The new projections show the Liberals have dropped 15 seats since Sept. 18 but still lead with 150, followed by the Conservatives with 142, the New Democrats with 22, the Bloc Quebecois with 17 and the Green Party with 5.

The People’s Party and an Independent are also projected to win one seat each in the House of Commons.

https://globalnews.ca/news/5954860/canada-election-seat-projection-trudeau-minority/

josh
josh

According to Mainstreet’s daily tracking results released Thursday, the Conservatives are drawing the support of 35.8 per cent of leaning and decided voters, with the Liberals in second place with 34.4 per cent. The NDP is back in third with 10.7 per cent, followed by the Greens at 9.2 per cent, the Bloc at 5.5 per cent and the People’s Party at 3.4 per cent.

 

jerrym

Bloc 29%

Lib 25%

Con 18%

NDP 15%

Here is a translation of the the pollster comment on the race with regard to Caron.

But despite their third and fourth place, the Conservative (Nancy Brassard-Fortin) and the outgoing MP, the New Democrat Guy Caron, still get a substantial share of voting intentions, with 18 and 15% support respectively.

"The advantage of the Bloc is still significant, but having a lead of 4.2 points when you do not even get 30% of the voting intentions, it shows how the vote is broken," said Luc Fortin, president of Mainstreet for Quebec. "That said, it's still possible to get back on the road for the Conservatives by the end of the campaign, and maybe even for the NDP."

KarlL

NorthReport wrote:

Liberals cling to shrinking minority government after Trudeau blackface scandal: seat projections

 

The projections, released by the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy (LISPOP) on Thursday, are based on a series of polls released between Sept. 20-24 in the days after images and a video of Justin Trudeau surfaced showing the Liberal leader in blackface.

The data draws on a number of surveys and polls from Ipsos, DART, Nanos, Angus Reid, Ekos, Abacus and Forum for an aggregated total of more than 11,000 interviews and attempts to determine how that popular support translates to seats won.

WATCH: Trudeau sits down in first interview since his blackface scandal. Here’s exactly what he said

The new projections show the Liberals have dropped 15 seats since Sept. 18 but still lead with 150, followed by the Conservatives with 142, the New Democrats with 22, the Bloc Quebecois with 17 and the Green Party with 5.

The People’s Party and an Independent are also projected to win one seat each in the House of Commons.

https://globalnews.ca/news/5954860/canada-election-seat-projection-trudeau-minority/

Whereas Eric Grenier has a 20 seat spread in Polltracker, i.e., 160 LIB/140 CON/17 BQ/16 NDP/4 GRN/1 PPC, using weighted recent polls.  

And if you were to feed the Innovative Research Group regional numbers into the TooCloseToCall simulator, you'd get a bigger Liberal majority than in the last parliament and the NDP caucus would be twice as large as in Polltracker, losing quite a few seats in Quebec but gaining some in the West:

187 LIB/103 CON/28 NDP/14 BQ/4 GRN/1 PPC/1 IND (JWR).  

Those two or three point differences can have a massive impact

KarlL

Mainstreet on September 26: Conservative 35.8 per cent of leaning and decided voters, with the Liberals in second place with 34.4 per cent. The NDP is back in third with 10.7 per cent, followed by the Greens at 9.2 per cent, the Bloc at 5.5 per cent and the People’s Party at 3.4 per cent

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Liberals cling to shrinking minority government after Trudeau blackface scandal: seat projections

 

The projections, released by the Laurier Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy (LISPOP) on Thursday, are based on a series of polls released between Sept. 20-24 in the days after images and a video of Justin Trudeau surfaced showing the Liberal leader in blackface.

The data draws on a number of surveys and polls from Ipsos, DART, Nanos, Angus Reid, Ekos, Abacus and Forum for an aggregated total of more than 11,000 interviews and attempts to determine how that popular support translates to seats won.

WATCH: Trudeau sits down in first interview since his blackface scandal. Here’s exactly what he said

The new projections show the Liberals have dropped 15 seats since Sept. 18 but still lead with 150, followed by the Conservatives with 142, the New Democrats with 22, the Bloc Quebecois with 17 and the Green Party with 5.

The People’s Party and an Independent are also projected to win one seat each in the House of Commons.

https://globalnews.ca/news/5954860/canada-election-seat-projection-trudeau-minority/

So they don't use polls from Innovative, Mainstreet and Leger.

NorthReport

Do people think that it is appropriate for a government new service, the CBC, to be involved in election campaigns, constantly pimping for one political party?  Just askin'

JKR

Which political party are they “pimping” for? [Probably not the Marxist-Leninists.]

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

JKR wrote:

Which political party are they “pimping” for? [Probably not the Marxist-Leninists.]

The CBC has an obvious pro-Liberal bent. So much so that they did a riding profile on Burnaby North-Seymour (the riding in which Svend Robinson is atempting his comback) without mentioning any candidates other than Liberal incumbent Terry Beech.

Their election coverage almost always leads with what the Liberal campaign has been up to. They portray the Liberals as far more to the left than they actually are. And pretty well all campaign announcements from the Liberals are taken at face value, without any genuine scrutiny. Especially on climate change.

 

KarlL

Nanos September 27:

LIB 34.4% CON 37.7% NDP 15% GRN 10.5% BQ 4.4% PPC 1.8%. - so Green, NDP and Conservatives all up slightly.

josh

Abacus:

LPC 35 (+3)

CPC 33  (1)

NDP 15 (NC)

GPC 10 (NC)

Bloc 5 (+1)

PPC 2 (NC)

josh

Laurier Saint-Marie:

Pondering

Many posters here define left and right or progressiveness as economical. Most people nowadays define it as pro/anti LGBTQ/choice/feminism etc. By that measure the Liberals are on the left. That conceals their right wing economics but it isn't seen as right wing anymore. It's considered centrist. Running a deficit is leftist. 

Right now means pretty much free market. 

Misfit Misfit's picture

 

Tommy Douglas never ran a deficit and his government was left wing.

Pondering wrote:

Many posters here define left and right or progressiveness as economical. Most people nowadays define it as pro/anti LGBTQ/choice/feminism etc. By that measure the Liberals are on the left. That conceals their right wing economics but it isn't seen as right wing anymore. It's considered centrist. Running a deficit is leftist. 

Right now means pretty much free market. 

KarlL

I don't have access to the Mainstreet numbers form iPolitics but they apparently show the Conservatives 2% point ahead of the Liberals.  No information is provided openly for the NDP or other parties.  Maybe a subscriber can fill us in on it.

KarlL

josh wrote:

Abacus:

LPC 35 (+3)

CPC 33  (1)

NDP 15 (NC)

GPC 10 (NC)

Bloc 5 (+1)

PPC 2 (NC)

 

Abacus numbers would yield the following if run through the TooCloseToCall simulator, though some of the regionals look a bit wonky to me.

LIB 175 CON 116 NDP 31 GRN 3 BQ 12 PPC 0 IND 1 (presumably JWR)  The NDP number sees losses of most seats in Quebec but gains in Ontario and holding steady in BC and the Prairies.

josh

Mainstreet:

In the 498-person phone survey of GTA voters, though excluding the City of Toronto, the Liberals polled at 45.4% among leaning & decided respondents, compared to 31.3% for the Conservatives, 10.5% for the NDP, 8.3% for the Greens & 3.8% for the People’s Party #cdnpoli

#elxn43

bekayne

KarlL wrote:

I don't have access to the Mainstreet numbers form iPolitics but they apparently show the Conservatives 2% point ahead of the Liberals.  No information is provided openly for the NDP or other parties.  Maybe a subscriber can fill us in on it.

Some days it's behind a paywall, some days it isn't:

https://ipolitics.ca/2019/09/27/tories-regain-2-point-lead-as-liberals-decline-mainstreet-poll/

bekayne
alan smithee alan smithee's picture

45% in the GTA? 50 something % in Montreal....2 point lead is fuck all. Don't pop that champagne bottle yet, right wingers

NorthReport

Tories regain 2 point lead as Liberals decline in latest Mainstreet poll

https://ipolitics.ca/2019/09/27/tories-regain-2-point-lead-as-liberals-decline-mainstreet-poll/

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