2019 polls part 2

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alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Things look really good for the NDP and Greens. And even though Trudeau polls low, the party still leads with those 55 years old and younger. It will be old white men and practicing fascists that will prop up the Conservatives

brookmere

Misfit wrote:
Tommy Douglas never ran a deficit.

That isn't true. He did run deficits for a few years out of his time as Premier. Also, he was in office during a time of high economic growth, when the provinces had far fewer fiscal burdens (Medicare was brought in right at the end of his time as Premier).

KarlL

 

I've never heard of this outfit and Mario Canseco to me is a 1990s Oakland As slugger.  As  a Liberal, I'll happily take a 3-point lead as that is on the verge of a majority, depending on the regional splits but I am hesistant to put any faith in an outfit I have never heard of before.  Perhaps I need to get out more. 

Which does raise the question as to whether this forum places more faith in some pollsters than others.  I have some views but would be interested to hear what others think.

KarlL

alan smithee wrote:

45% in the GTA? 50 something % in Montreal....2 point lead is fuck all. Don't pop that champagne bottle yet, right wingers

 

I'm not quite sure if you were referring to me but I am a Liberal.  I do post every new poll I see, given the thread title, even numbers that make me wince.  

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

KarlL wrote:

alan smithee wrote:

45% in the GTA? 50 something % in Montreal....2 point lead is fuck all. Don't pop that champagne bottle yet, right wingers

 

I'm not quite sure if you were referring to me but I am a Liberal.  I do post every new poll I see, given the thread title, even numbers that make me wince.  

No Karl. But I'm glad to see I'm not alone on this board. Cheers.

NorthReport

According to the 10 most recent polls Liberals’ support has ranged from 33.4% to 36%

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Canadian_federal_election

bekayne

KarlL wrote:

 

I've never heard of this outfit and Mario Canseco to me is a 1990s Oakland As slugger. 

B.C. pollster, used to be with Insights West.

Misfit Misfit's picture

If the Green Party folded and melded into the NDP party, the NDP would be sitting at around 23-24% support right now. It is time for the Greens to go for the benefit of left. The new party could be the NDPG party. The NDP would be the same party but with a stronger emphasis on climate change and innovative new energy alternatives. Perhaps when May retires this plan of action can commence. This two party system fighting for the left vote is getting no one anywhere.

NorthReport

Agreed 

KarlL

NorthReport wrote:

According to the 10 most recent polls Liberals’ support has ranged from 33.4% to 36%

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Canadian_federal_election

 

It is interesting to me that after what was a clear dip last weekend in the wake of the brownface photos, the recent polls have (with one notable exception, Mainstreet) all shown a Liberal lead of between 1 and 4 points (i,e., Leger, Nanos (2X), Innovative Reasearch Group, Abacus, Reearch Co.).  Mainstreet has instead shown a Conservative lead of up to 2-points. 

I know that Mainstreet's Quito Maggi has a background as  Liberal Party member and organizer, so presume that bias (if there is any) doesn't stem from that and wonder if there is omething about IVR that is apt to yield different results than telephone or online surveys?  Does the automated part at the outset of the calls deter a particular voter demographic from participating/encourage a particular voter demographic to "speak their piece"?

KarlL

Nanos September 28: LIB 34.4%/CON 33.7%/NDP 15%/GRN 10.5%/BQ 4.4%/PPC 1.8%

Oops, my apol0gies.  This was yesterday's still posted at the time. North Report has corrected it below.

NorthReport

Why am I not surprised after seeing Trudeau marching against his own government’s climate change policies yesterday

Liberals in second place with only 32.6% support in latest poll

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Canadian_federal_election

R.E.Wood

Latest Nanos:

Conservatives and Liberals remain tied. Greens hit new high in Nanos tracking and are closing in on the NDP.

Con 34%

Lib 33%

NDP 14%

Green 13%

Bloc 4%

PPC 1%

https://secureservercdn.net/198.71.233.47/823.910.myftpupload.com/wp-con...

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Misfit wrote:

If the Green Party folded and melded into the NDP party, the NDP would be sitting at around 23-24% support right now. It is time for the Greens to go for the benefit of left. The new party could be the NDPG party. The NDP would be the same party but with a stronger emphasis on climate change and innovative new energy alternatives. Perhaps when May retires this plan of action can commence. This two party system fighting for the left vote is getting no one anywhere.

Green partisans will never agree to be subsumed into the dysfunctional NDP National office and who could blame them. The two parties need to simultaneously fold and have a founding convention of a new party based on Eco-socialist ideals and policies designed specifically to fight back at climate chaos, with a new leader and a new Ottawa support team for MP's, not people bent on controlling the elected.

NorthReport

Too close to call

Cons  - 34.6%

Libs - 33.4%

NPD - 13.2%

Bloc - 4.6%

Grns - 10.1%

PPC - 3%

Libs - 151 seats

Cons - 142 seats

NDP - 21 seats

Bloc - 19 seats

Grns - 4 seats

Other - 1 seat

PPC - 0 seats

www.tooclosetocall.ca

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

kropotkin1951 wrote:

Misfit wrote:

If the Green Party folded and melded into the NDP party, the NDP would be sitting at around 23-24% support right now. It is time for the Greens to go for the benefit of left. The new party could be the NDPG party. The NDP would be the same party but with a stronger emphasis on climate change and innovative new energy alternatives. Perhaps when May retires this plan of action can commence. This two party system fighting for the left vote is getting no one anywhere.

Green partisans will never agree to be subsumed into the dysfunctional NDP National office and who could blame them. The two parties need to simultaneously fold and have a founding convention of a new party based on Eco-socialist ideals and policies designed specifically to fight back at climate chaos, with a new leader and a new Ottawa support team for MP's, not people bent on controlling the elected.

Absolutely.  It needs to be a party free from both the discredited NDP "insiders" and from all vestiges of May's personal control-freakery.  It needs to be run from below, as the German Greens were before the "realos" took over and eventually reduced Die Gruenen to the pathetic state of affairs in which the party would saddle itself with a conventional, dismissive "leader" and that leader would end up cheerleading for things like the Iraq War.

KarlL

Made sure that I had the right release date this time.  This is Nanos for today:

CON 34.2%/LIB 32.5%/NDP 13.0%/GRN 12.6%/BQ 4.6%/PPC 2.1%

jerrym

Jagmeet Singh and Elizabeth May are the only party leaders with net positive scores according to this Abacus poll released on September 27th.

Justin Trudeau’s personal ratings have recovered a bit. His positives are up 3-points to 34%, and his negatives are down 2 to 47% for an overall net -13 image score. Mr. Trudeau’s net favourability is -11 in BC, -13 in Ontario, +1 in Quebec. He is -13 among women and +5 among voters under 30.

Andrew Scheer saw his numbers go in the opposite direction this week. His positives dropped a point to 31%, and his negatives are up 3-points to 42% for an overall image score of -11. His approval rating is -12 in BC, -15 in Ontario and -15 in Quebec. It is -20 with under 30 voters and -18 among women.

Jagmeet Singh had a better week this week, with his positives rising 6-points to 31% and his negatives dropping 4-points to 24% for a +7 overall. He is +10 in BC, +9 in Ontario, +9 in Quebec, +12 among women and +31 among voters under 30.

Elizabeth May had a slightly improved week with her positives up 2 and her negatives down 2 for an overall net image score of +9. She is +12 in BC, +10 in Ontario, +9 in Quebec, and +21 in Atlantic Canada.

Maxime Bernier is underwater everywhere at -32 nationally, -29 in BC, -29 in Ontario, -38 in Quebec, and – 4 among self-described right of centre voters. He is -21 among centre-right voters.

https://abacusdata.ca/a-better-week-for-trudeau-liberals/

NorthReport
Misfit Misfit's picture

kropotkin1951 wrote:

Misfit wrote:

If the Green Party folded and melded into the NDP party, the NDP would be sitting at around 23-24% support right now. It is time for the Greens to go for the benefit of left. The new party could be the NDPG party. The NDP would be the same party but with a stronger emphasis on climate change and innovative new energy alternatives. Perhaps when May retires this plan of action can commence. This two party system fighting for the left vote is getting no one anywhere.

Green partisans will never agree to be subsumed into the dysfunctional NDP National office and who could blame them. The two parties need to simultaneously fold and have a founding convention of a new party based on Eco-socialist ideals and policies designed specifically to fight back at climate chaos, with a new leader and a new Ottawa support team for MP's, not people bent on controlling the elected.

Yes, and I can get on board with that. The Green part in Canada is not like the other environmwntal parties in other countries. The left needs a new and solid foundation. The people are there. Both the NDP and the Grwen parties have severe internal issues. Let’s fix those problems and regroup as one. 

 

I am am so impressed and proud of our young protestors. All this activism is giving me a strong sense of hope for this country and our future. It has to be under one banner with a very strong manifesto.

NorthReport

Canada's right-wing press in cahoots with our government broadcaster the CBC is effectively doing its dirty work on behalf of Canada's elites, which back the right-wing political parties, the Liberals, the Conservatives, and the Greens. 

Not sure without a major media at its back that much progress will be made.

That is why Canada's labour movement need to be involved in owning, operating and managing news outlets. Natural allies could be progressive Greens and Indigenous Peoples.

JKR

It does seem that because of FPTP the NDP and Greens will have to merge if they want to start gaining representation in Parliament in proportion to the amount of votes they are cumulatively getting. As it is the Green’s and NDP’s roll in our FPTP system is to throw away the votes of their leftist voters and inadvertently help the Conservatives gain power. The top issue for a new Green/NDP party should be establishing electoral reform without the nonsensical requirement of  a referendum.

Misfit Misfit's picture

NorthReport wrote:

Canada's right-wing press in cahoots with our government broadcaster the CBC is effectively doing its dirty work on behalf of Canada's elites, which back the right-wing political parties, the Liberals, the Conservatives, and the Greens. 

Not sure without a major media at its back that much progress will be made.

That is why Canada's labour movement need to be involved in owning, operating and managing news outlets. Natural allies could be progressive Greens and Indigenous Peoples.

Yes, and unfortunately I had the unpleasant experience of watching the At Issue panel on Thursday regarding climate change.

Chantal Hebert talked about Trudeau’s climate change plan. Then she discussed Andrew Scheer’s lack of a climate change plan. Then she quickly alluded to Elizabeth May making that her central issue. She did not mention the NDP at all. Then she said that this was going to be a two party election.

At Issue

KarlL

This actually came out yesterday from Mainstreet but I didn't see it posted here.

 

"In the firm’s latest numbers, which represent the results of polling by phone of 2,270 respondents between Sept. 26 and 28, the Liberals and Conservatives enjoyed the support of 34 per cent and 33.7 per cent of leaning and decided voters, respectively. The NDP, Greens and Bloc Quebecois had the support of 11.7 per cent, 10.1 per cent and 5.8 per cent, respectively, while the People’s Party was back behind at 3.7 per cent.

Compared to Saturday’s numbers, the Liberals, NDP, Bloc and Greens are all up slightly, while the Conservatives and People’s Party trended downward by a few tenths of a percentage point. None of these shifts were larger than the poll’s margin of error, which stands at plus or minus 2.06 percentage points, according to Mainstreet."

KarlL

And seeing that nobody else has posted them yet, here are the Nanos numbers for today:

CON 34%/LIB 32.7%/NDP 13.2%/GRN 12.6%/BQ 4.1%/PPC 2.5%

NorthReport

Young people are not brain dead, and they must have been really stunned to have seen Trudeau marching against his own government climate change policies. What a con job he is!

NorthReport

More political hits like blackface controversy might be unsustainable for Grits, say Liberals

By ABBAS RANA      SEP. 30, 2019

Liberals say the blackface controversy has damaged morale and that Grits in close ridings may not win re-election. 'They're worried. There’s no swagger, put it that way,’ one Liberal MP told The Hill Times, describing the morale of his caucus colleagues and the party base.

https://www.hilltimes.com/2019/09/30/more-political-hits-like-blackface-controversy-might-be-unsustainable-for-the-party-say-liberals/217047

NorthReport

The Greta effect? Nanos survey suggests young voters turning on Trudeau

TORONTO -- Support for Justin Trudeau among young voters appears to have plummeted in the wake of the Liberal leader’s meeting with teenage environmental activist Greta Thunberg and the release of his party’s platform.

Polling data from Nanos Research shows that the proportion of voters aged 18 to 29 who cite Trudeau as their preferred prime minister fell from nearly 35 per cent to a little more than 24 per cent within 24 hours.

“If you’re a Liberal, you’ve got to be very nervous,” pollster Nik Nanos said Monday on CTV’s Trend Line podcast.

https://election.ctvnews.ca/the-greta-effect-nanos-survey-suggests-young-voters-turning-on-trudeau-1.4616701

Misfit Misfit's picture

NorthReport wrote:

More political hits like blackface controversy might be unsustainable for Grits, say Liberals

By ABBAS RANA      SEP. 30, 2019

Liberals say the blackface controversy has damaged morale and that Grits in close ridings may not win re-election. 'They're worried. There’s no swagger, put it that way,’ one Liberal MP told The Hill Times, describing the morale of his caucus colleagues and the party base.

https://www.hilltimes.com/2019/09/30/more-political-hits-like-blackface-controversy-might-be-unsustainable-for-the-party-say-liberals/217047

Yes, where is our regular Liberal apple dumpling gang tag team that are usually actively engaged on this board?

josh

Mainstreet 

Conservatives: 34.0% Liberals: 33.7% NDP: 11.7% Greens: 10.1% Bloc Québécois: 5.8% People’s Party: 3.7%

NorthReport

Kinda hard to defend the indefensible, isn't it?

Trudeau's star candidate in BC, Terry Lake, who is running for the Liberals in Kamloops, previously was the Health Minister in Christy Clark's government, when the BC Liberals were fined $16 million for trying to privatize Healthcare.

So my unpleasant question for progressive voters is, do we want a Conservative government who say they are Conservative, or do we want a Trudeau government who say they are Liberal, but really are Conservatives? 

This is why I don't believe in strategic voting.

Vote for the party that comes closest to what you believe in, and don't fall for the Liberal lies that will tell you you have to vote Liberal to keep the Conservatives out in your riding. Maybe if enough people vote for who they actually want to win, the NDP might do much better than the constant manipulative polls are showing.   

KarlL

Misfit wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

More political hits like blackface controversy might be unsustainable for Grits, say Liberals

By ABBAS RANA      SEP. 30, 2019

Liberals say the blackface controversy has damaged morale and that Grits in close ridings may not win re-election. 'They're worried. There’s no swagger, put it that way,’ one Liberal MP told The Hill Times, describing the morale of his caucus colleagues and the party base.

https://www.hilltimes.com/2019/09/30/more-political-hits-like-blackface-controversy-might-be-unsustainable-for-the-party-say-liberals/217047

Yes, where is our regular Liberal apple dumpling gang tag team that are usually actively engaged on this board?

 

Well, first this is a polling thread and the Hill Times related-post is at most on the outer margins of being polling-related. 

Second, what is your point?  Brownface/blackface was obviously somewhat damaging to the Liberal campaign.  There was a discernible dip in support at a time when the Liberals were starting to open up a small gap on the Conservatives.  I can't imagine that it did much for morale and of course, it was highly objectionable in its own right.  

So the gap between the Liberals and Conservatives has since narrowed again but there is likely less tolerance for another Liberal screw-up.

If your question is whether more negative revelations about Liberals would do more damage to Liberal election prospects or whether lots more negative revelations would do lots more damage to Liberal election prospects.  I would answer with a resounding "Yes" and "Duh". 

 

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Kinda hard to defend the indefensible, isn't it?

Trudeau's star candidate in BC, Terry Lake, who is running for the Liberals in Kamloops, previously was the Health Minister in Christy Clark's government, when the BC Liberals were fined $16 million for trying to privatize Healthcare.

So my unpleasant question for progressive voters is, do we want a Conservative government who say they are Conservative, or do we want a Trudeau government who say they are Liberal, but really are Conservatives? 

This is why I don't believe in strategic voting.

Vote for the party that comes closest to what you believe in, and don't fall for the Liberal lies that will tell you you have to vote Liberal to keep the Conservatives out in your riding. Maybe if enough people vote for who they actually want to win, the NDP might do much better than the constant manipulative polls are showing.   

What does this have to do with the polling thread?

NorthReport

I'm shocked at how low Trudeau's support has fallen as he is now tied with despicable Scheer according the latest polling out today. What gives!

Mighty Middle

Justin Trudeau loss is Jagmeet Singh's gain - Among young voters (18 - 29) Trudeau has dropped TEN POINTS, and who is the beneficiary? Jagmeet Singh who has gone up FIVE POINTS and is now a solid second to Justin Trudeau among Millenial voters - and that is the largest block of voters this election, and not older people.

https://election.ctvnews.ca/the-greta-effect-nanos-survey-suggests-young...

KarlL

josh wrote:

Mainstreet 

Conservatives: 34.0% Liberals: 33.7% NDP: 11.7% Greens: 10.1% Bloc Québécois: 5.8% People’s Party: 3.7%

Not that it is a big difference but the Mainstreet numbers for today are actually

LIB 34.4%/CON 34.1%/NDP 10.9%/GRN10.5%/BQ 5.6%/PPC 3.2%

Misfit Misfit's picture

KarlL wrote:

Misfit wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

More political hits like blackface controversy might be unsustainable for Grits, say Liberals

By ABBAS RANA      SEP. 30, 2019

Liberals say the blackface controversy has damaged morale and that Grits in close ridings may not win re-election. 'They're worried. There’s no swagger, put it that way,’ one Liberal MP told The Hill Times, describing the morale of his caucus colleagues and the party base.

https://www.hilltimes.com/2019/09/30/more-political-hits-like-blackface-controversy-might-be-unsustainable-for-the-party-say-liberals/217047

Yes, where is our regular Liberal apple dumpling gang tag team that are usually actively engaged on this board?

 

Well, first this is a polling thread and the Hill Times related-post is at most on the outer margins of being polling-related. 

Second, what is your point?  Brownface/blackface was obviously somewhat damaging to the Liberal campaign.  There was a discernible dip in support at a time when the Liberals were starting to open up a small gap on the Conservatives.  I can't imagine that it did much for morale and of course, it was highly objectionable in its own right.  

So the gap between the Liberals and Conservatives has since narrowed again but there is likely less tolerance for another Liberal screw-up.

If your question is whether more negative revelations about Liberals would do more damage to Liberal election prospects or whether lots more negative revelations would do lots more damage to Liberal election prospects.  I would answer with a resounding "Yes" and "Duh". 

 

there are two Liberal posters who have been absent since Trudeau’s change of fate. Happened last election too. When Liberal fortunes tumble, they disappear. When Liberal tides turn for the better they return in full force.

KarlL. You are always respectful and I enjoy your input to this board. I don’t have an easy time with some of the Liberals here, and I’m sure that Liberals can find me easily off putting.

I liked Pierre Trudeau but I do not like Justin and I make no bones about it. There are so many talented and qualified people within your party that you don’t need your current leader. He is not good for the party and his gaffes are not going to stop until you get rid of him. He is not qualified to properly lead your party.

bekayne

Here's an actual poll:

Ekos

Lib 33.4 (+1.4) / Con 31.1 (-4.2) / Green 13.4 (+3.1) / NDP 11.4 (+0.5) / PPC 5.1 (+1.0) / BQ 3.0 (-1.9)

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_september_30_2019.pdf

josh

13 point lead in Ontario and a nearly 20 point lead in Quebec for the liberals in that EKOS poll.

nicky

Ekos gives the NDP 3% in Saskatchewan

That’s impossible

KarlL

josh wrote:

13 point lead in Ontario and a nearly 20 point lead in Quebec for the liberals in that EKOS poll.

 

Yeah, I like Frank Graves, would happily take theose ON and QC numbers but that poll looks all over the place to me.  

Misfit Misfit's picture

brookmere wrote:

Misfit wrote:
Tommy Douglas never ran a deficit.

That isn't true. He did run deficits for a few years out of his time as Premier. Also, he was in office during a time of high economic growth, when the provinces had far fewer fiscal burdens (Medicare was brought in right at the end of his time as Premier).

Tommy Douglas was, beyond doubt, a Great Canadian. Amid the madness of our own debt spiral, his singular achievement appears more remarkable than ever. He set an example of fiscal restraint (and, ironically, of limited government) that no other Canadian premier approached in the 20th century. In 17 years as premier, he produced 17 balanced budgets. From this perspective, he governed in a uniquely rational, disciplined and principled way.

When Mr. Douglas took office in 1944, Saskatchewan had a debt of$218-million - 38 per cent of provincial GDP. By 1949, he had reduced the debt to $70-million. By 1953, he had eliminated it. By 1961, when he left office, he had produced 17 successive budget surpluses. By reducing the debt, and thereby reducing interest costs, he was able to spend more on public services -without raising taxes.”

https://www.google.ca/amp/s/www.theglobeandmail.com/amp/opinion/tommy-douglas-the-pragmatic-socialist/article4348719/

Misfit Misfit's picture

Dp

bekayne

nicky wrote:

Ekos gives the NDP 3% in Saskatchewan

That’s impossible

Tiny sample size. Ekos put an asterisk besides the ones that can be pretty much ignored.

jerrym

For all the posters who have been decrying Singh's Best PM numbers, according to a Nik Nanos poll out today there has been a major drop among millenials (18-29) support for Trudeau who has lost 11.7% over the last three days with this age cohort, while Singh has risen to second in Best PM, who has gained 5.6% in the same period and is only 3.4% behind Trudeau. Nanos calls this the Greta effect. 

Best PM

Trudeau from 36.0% to 24.3% (- 11.7) 

Singh from 15.3% to 20.9% (+ 5.6)

Scheer from 17.6% to 15.7% (- 1.9)

May from 10.8% to 13.1% (+ 2.8)

Bernier from 0.9% to 3.5% (+ 2.8)

Blanchet from 1.3% to 0.8% (- 0,5)

Support for Justin Trudeau among young voters appears to have plummeted in the wake of the Liberal leader’s meeting with teenage environmental activist Greta Thunberg and the release of his party’s platform.

Polling data from Nanos Research shows that the proportion of voters aged 18 to 29 who cite Trudeau as their preferred prime minister fell from nearly 35 per cent to a little more than 24 per cent within 24 hours.

“If you’re a Liberal, you’ve got to be very nervous,” pollster Nik Nanos said Monday on CTV’s Trend Line podcast.

The poll, which was commissioned by CTV News and The Globe and Mail and based on data collected between Sept. 27 and Sept. 29, found no clear beneficiary to the drop in youth support for Trudeau.

Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer, Green Party Leader Elizabeth May and People’s Party Leader Maxime Bernier all saw slight increases in their support in this category, while the number of respondents saying they were unsure rose by four percentage points. NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh saw a decline in youth support of about one-eighth of a percentage point.

“I think we’re going to call this the Greta Thunberg effect,” Nanos aid.

https://election.ctvnews.ca/the-greta-effect-nanos-survey-suggests-young...

This could be a major problem for the Liberals because the large Liberal victory in 2015 was driven by an 18% increase in 18-29 year olds voting over the previous election producing a modern record turnout among this group, with this support going overwhelmingly to the Liberals. Rising to second among this age cohort also provides the NDP with an opportunity to increase their vote. Even if the NDP or Greens do not increase their vote among this group, if falling enthusiasm for Trudeau causes young voters to stay home. 

KarlL

Nanos for October 1st.  

CON 34.5%/LIB 32.2%/NDP 14.3%/GRN 11.1%/BQ 4.4%/PPC 3.0%. 

So that's becoming a slightly larger gap in Nanos. Still within the 2.8% margin of error but getting close to its upper bounds.

KarlL

Similar gap in IPSOS for today but a stronger NDP relative to the Greens:

CON 37%/LIB 34%/NDP 15%/GRN 7%/BQ 5% (22% in QC)/PPC 2%

NorthReport

So the Cons are pulling ahead of the Liberals and the NDP are pulling ahead of the Greens If this continues what would the Liberals have to offer the NDP to ensure their support to keep the Liberals in government or will the Liberals govern with the support of the Cons? If we are to have any hope of some progressive legislation from the new government the NDP must continue to increase their support in the second half of the campaign.

NorthReport

The worst possible result would be a majority government

 

NorthReport

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