2019 polls part 2

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bekayne

JeffWells wrote:

Mainstreet poll of Sherbrooke riding finds a three-way race with a big jump in support putting the NDP back in contention.

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1184097212445478912?fbclid=Iw...

NDP MP in Sherbrooke now at 26%. Poll taken at the same time in Beauce by the same pollster has the NDP at 2%

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1184090414468550658

But according to some "Incumbancy doesn't matter!"

Misfit Misfit's picture

And what if the bloc collapsed this week in favour of a national unified alternative?

bekayne
Misfit Misfit's picture

And what would happen if Quebecers saw an orange surge in Ontario and in Manitoba and Saskatchewan and B.C.? That would be dangerous. It is easier for the mainline two parties to deal with the Bloc rather than the NDP.

bekayne

knownothing wrote:

The pollsters did the same thing in 2011. They tried to suppress the surge as much as they could to mitigate the damage of the NDP on the Liberal vote share.

In 2011 most of the pollsters overestimated the NDP vote:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2011_Canadian_federal_election

NorthReport

Thanks REW much appreciated

You are correct, my bad math again, sorry about that, and I'll make the corrections.

NDP blows election race wide open as Singh-led NDP gains 10% on the Liberals and 7% on the Conservatives

R.E.Wood wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

NDP blows election race wide open as Singh-led NDP gains 10% on the Liberals and 4% on the Conservatives

Cons - 32%, Down 2%

Libs 30%, Down 5% 

NDP - 20%, Up 5%

Pretty sure your math is off, NR. Shouldn't the 4 be a 7?

Sean in Ottawa

Last week surges being effective are much harder to do now given the proportion of people who now vote in advance or special ballots.

I do not see the Liberals droping to third at this point but I do see the potential for things among all three top parties being much closer than people expect.

Elections Canada opened a great deal more voting on university campuses and I am hearing rumours that many people voted.

KarlL

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Last week surges being effective are much harder to do now given the proportion of people who now vote in advance or special ballots.

I do not see the Liberals droping to third at this point but I do see the potential for things among all three top parties being much closer than people expect.

Elections Canada opened a great deal more voting on university campuses and I am hearing rumours that many people voted.

 

Right on cue:

https://ipolitics.ca/2019/10/15/liberals-conservatives-leading-among-early-voters-suggests-mainstreet-research-poll/

In the newest tracking poll results released Tuesday, which captured polling that took place between Oct. 12-14, 598 out of the 2,076 respondents surveyed said they voted in special ballots or advance polls. From that number, 35 per cent said they voted for the Liberals, 34.1 per cent said they cast a ballot for the Conservatives, with 13.9 per cent saying they did the same for the NDP. Another 6.9 per cent said they marked their ballot for the Bloc Québécois, 6.4 per cent said they voted for the Greens, while 3.6 per cent opted for the People’s Party, and one per cent opted for another party.

Breaking down the numbers by region, a plurality of early voters cast a ballot for the Liberals in Ontario (42.4 per cent), Quebec (41), Atlantic Canada (33.5) and British Columbia (31.7). The Conservatives were the most popular choice of early voters in Alberta (74.3 per cent) and the Prairies (49.1), and in second place in Ontario (35), B.C. (23.6) and Atlantic Canada (21.7), while sitting third in Quebec (16). The Liberals were in second in Alberta (10.8 per cent) and third in the Prairies (19).

BUT MOE of +/- 4%

NorthReport

This looks like more right-wing bullshit - where's the proof as it reads like gobbledgygook, but these are the games that Liberals and Conservatives play

I have heard all that surge in advance polling is the result of young people's disenchantment with the Liberals, and who are turning out in big numbers for the NDP.

 

KarlL

Now for Mainstreet's actual poll for today:

CON 31.1% / LIB 30.7% / NDP 17.2% / GRN 8.5% / 8.1% BQ / 3.2% PPC /0.9% Other

Sample size 2,079.  October 12-14. MOE +/- 2.15% 19x/20

https://ipolitics.ca/2019/10/15/liberals-conservatives-leading-among-early-voters-suggests-mainstreet-research-poll/

NorthReport

Please don't try and push Mainstreet as some kind of legitimate pollster.

Mainstreet forcast the Calgary mayor to lose by what per cent was it? And how did he win by?

This is probably rigged polling and most people know it.

KarlL

NorthReport wrote:

This looks like more right-wing bullshit - where's the proof as it reads like gobbledgygook, but these are the games that Liberals and Conservatives play

I have heard all that surge in advance polling is the result of young people's disenchantment with the Liberals, and who are turning out in big numbers for the NDP.

 

I have no idea if what you've heard is more accurate than Mainstreet's sampling methodology and actual samplee in this case but this being a thread about polling I thought that I should probably post it here.

NorthReport

KarlL

I appreciate your comments here even if I disagree with some of them You are a welcome new addition here.

I have no problems with anything you post and my post was not  in any way directed at you personally 

josh

KarlL wrote:

Now for Mainstreet's actual poll for today:

CON 31.1% / LIB 30.7% / NDP 17.2% / GRN 8.5% / 8.1% BQ / 3.2% PPC /0.9% Other

Sample size 2,079.  October 12-14. MOE +/- 2.15% 19x/20

https://ipolitics.ca/2019/10/15/liberals-conservatives-leading-among-early-voters-suggests-mainstreet-research-poll/

8% for the Bloc?  Probably a good bet they're over 30% in the province then.

knownothing knownothing's picture

bekayne wrote:

knownothing wrote:

 

The pollsters did the same thing in 2011. They tried to suppress the surge as much as they could to mitigate the damage of the NDP on the Liberal vote share.

In 2011 most of the pollsters overestimated the NDP vote:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2011_Canadian_federal_election

Look at how Nanos and most pollsters ignored the orange wave until April 20th

KarlL

NorthReport wrote:

KarlL

I appreciate your comments here even if I disagree with some of them You are a welcome new addition here.

I have no problems with anything you post and my post was not  in any way directed at you personally 

Thanks for that North Report, I appreciate your kind words.  I am not actually all that new.  It says 5 1/2 years by my name but I think I was on earlier than that and I might have hamfistedly changed my moniker slightly after long absence.  

I am unsure about Mainstreet too (I tend to trust Greg Lyle, Leger and Abacus most, though anyone can have a bad day) and I also remember the Calgary mis-call.  Then again, you have been known to cite them yourself from time to time.

Thu, 2019-10-10 16:51

NorthReport

If my math is getting better, that Mainstreet poll shows that the NDP has gained 14% on the Liberals

NorthReport

Abacus, Leger, Nanos, Ipsos and Environics and CROP for Quebec seemed to be the most accurate ones I have seen. Angus Reid has changed and I don't have the confidence I used to have in them.  They used to be the most accurate pollster of all with CROP for Quebec. Angus Reid has changed ownership I believe, Environics are they still around - what happened to them and the same for CROP, what happened to them as well? 

Pondering

I doubt the swing voters who determine the election go to advance polls. They usually like to keep their options open to the last minute. 

I have already voted because there is nothing Scheer or Trudeau could do to sway my vote before election day. I wouldn't be surprised if a lot of the hard core Conservative base has voted. Many of the undecided are probably NDP/Liberal voters. I don't think Scheer can attract more centrists because his message is the same as Ford's. That is why he is trying to scare voters with the threat of a Liberal/NDP coalition. Not enough people have a positive reason to vote for him. Trudeau is using the scare tactic of a Conservative win and an NDP win. 

I don't think Canadians are in the mood to be scared by politicians into voting for them. This was the worse tactic the Liberals and Conservatives could have chosen. Nobody likes to feel manipulated into voting for someone. They should have left it to others outside the party to promote that angle. 

Look at it from the outside. People who are unafilliated with any party. Swing voters young and old. Alberta had an NDP government and didn't burst into flames. BC currently has an NDP government and we aren't hearing about anything catastrophic happening there. Scheer is unimaginative, plodding, Ford without the theatrics. Trudeau has done so many things that people gave him a pass on but buying the pipeline and the more recent appeal of the decision in favor of indigenous children are sticking. 

Singh's statement that people don't have to vote for one or the other is resonating especially because the others are using scare tactics. It also reminds me of his comment during the debate that the other two were trying to convince Canadians how bad each other is rather than offering Canadians something to vote for. 

The Liberals and Conservatives just may succeed in convincing a lot of people that they are both terrible choices. 

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

KarlL wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:

bekayne wrote:

New Mainstreet poll: Lib (-1.5) NDP, BQ both +1. Greens move past Conservatives in Atlantic Canada (mind the sample size though)

https://ipolitics.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/mainstreet-canada-10october2019.pdf

That poll puts the BQ in the lead in popular support in Quebec, at 30%.  This could lead to a massive BQ gain in seats, and it's hard to tell whether this does more damage to the LPC or the CPC.  The NDP, now up to 13%, are looking more and more likely to avoid a total wipeout there.

 

The Liberals are actually up slightly since the previous Mainstreet poll, though just within the MOE:

32% CON (+1 since Oct. 10) 31% LIB (+2) 17% NDP (=) 8% GRN (-1) 8% BQ (=) 3% PPC (-1) 1% OTH (-1)

October 13, 2019:  LIB 30.7% / CON 32.3% / NDP 16.6% / BQ 7.8% / GRN 8% / PPC 3.4%

October 10, 2019: LIB 28.9% /CON 31.7% / NDP 16.6% / BQ 7.6% / GRN 9.4% / PPC 4.2%

Are those national polls or Quebec-specific polls?  The one I was referencing had the BQ with 30% among Quebec voters.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Misfit wrote:

And what would happen if Quebecers saw an orange surge in Ontario and in Manitoba and Saskatchewan and B.C.? That would be dangerous. It is easier for the mainline two parties to deal with the Bloc rather than the NDP.

The only times the BQ had leverage were during the 2004--2011 era of minority governments.  Could anybody comment as to how effective they were at getting stuff for Quebec in exchange for their votes for the government?

bekayne

Speaking of Quebec-specific polls, there's a new one from Forum:

Lib 33 / BQ 31 / Con 15 / NDP 10 / Green 7

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/e51789a3-1ca0-4fd7-bfb2-9f15e4823d3aLeader%20Debate%20EN%20Oct%202019.pdf

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

josh wrote:

KarlL wrote:

Now for Mainstreet's actual poll for today:

CON 31.1% / LIB 30.7% / NDP 17.2% / GRN 8.5% / 8.1% BQ / 3.2% PPC /0.9% Other

Sample size 2,079.  October 12-14. MOE +/- 2.15% 19x/20

https://ipolitics.ca/2019/10/15/liberals-conservatives-leading-among-early-voters-suggests-mainstreet-research-poll/

8% for the Bloc?  Probably a good bet they're over 30% in the province then.

It's likely that we'll see a reversal from 2011 in how the NDP does in advance voting vs. how it does in the votes cast on polling day.

In 2011, the NDP did MUCH better in the advance votes than in polling day votes, due to the fact that the advance votes were mainly cast before the niqab issue sunk the NDP in Quebec.  It now looks likely that the NDP will do better in votes cast on polling day than they have done, based on that poll, among advance voters, and that the Libs and Cons will do worse in polling day votes than they are, at this point, doing among advance voters.

And for some reason, the Mainstreet poll shows the NDP running second in Atlantic Canada among advance voters-this, in a region where the party has been collapsing in provincial elections recently.

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Pondering wrote:

The Liberals and Conservatives just may succeed in convincing a lot of people that they are both terrible choices. 

That is my dream scenario. Jagmeet is the positive voice.

bekayne

CBC poll tracker right up to date:

Sean in Ottawa

Advance polls attract a few different groups:

1) Campaign workers -- there are many of them and there are more for the Liberals and Conservatives in some places than the NDP but of course there are ridings where this is not the case. Campaign workers do not want to vote on voting day.

2) Elderly people trying to avoid crowds as much as possible. This includes people needing assitance. Often people will help their parents get to the polls and then vote themselves on voting day. These will skew to Liberals and Conservatives.

3) shift workers or workers where getting time off to vote may be less than practical.

4) Election Canada workers whoa re working all day. (you would be surprised how many of them there are).

5) Military can vote anywhere by special ballot.

6) University students may vote by special ballot on campus or in their ridings if they returned home for Thanksgiving.

The cast majority I saw were the elderly and those needing assistance in the poll I was in. I am sure this would be different depending on the poll.

I did see some very, very enthusiastic young people as well.

I have a deep feeling that the polls are off this time. I cannot say exactly why.

The advance poll s suggest voting is way up. This can either be that voting in general is up or that more are simply choosing advance polls. However voting rate tends to mean a couple things:

1) generally when it is high the vote often goes agaisnt the government.

2) when it is high it means demographics that sometimes do not vote are voting -- this includes young people. In this case it suggest a more representative more left result.

Yes - these could contradict potentially.

I will add that when the polls are close it may also mean that people think that the choices are starker - ther eis a difference and they are concerned with that difference. Also when the polls show a close race - as we have - then people feel their vote is really needed.

I canot say where the split will go between the Liberals, Greens and NDP. I think the Greens lost the momentum and the NDP has gained. I think the Conservatives had a lot of advantages but the lies and tone from the Scheer campaign have done damage adding to the Trump/Ford factor. Conservatives struggle to get 1/3 of the vote.

I think that there are a lot of people who really have come to appreciate Singh as well.

The NDP is now polling around the total where Mulcair was. I will have to look at the splits to see what this means since these are in different places.

It is also difficult to see yet how people react to any desperate strategic vote initiatives come from the Liberals given their broken promise. As people know, I have predicted that if they try to do this overtly it will backfire.

I also think that the 1-2 percent that Bernier's party will take will cost the Conservatives in a few seats.

Lastly, there is a campaign of desperation from Liberals that is underway. I think in particular there is a real risk for the CBC right now. Their bias towards some collective ownership and agaisnt the Conservatives would be natural given what they are. However, the extreme partisanship and gaming they are displaying agaisnt the NDP is dangerous. If the Conservatives attack their funding a good many New Democrats could just stand by becuase of this. I wonder how many  people they are fooling - might be fewer than they think.

 

 

 

KarlL

 

Ken Burch wrote:

Are those national polls or Quebec-specific polls?  The one I was referencing had the BQ with 30% among Quebec voters.

 

I stand - or rather sit - corrected.  I hadn't realized that you were referring to Quebec.

JeffWells

Sean in Ottawa wrote:
Lastly, there is a campaign of desperation from Liberals that is underway. I think in particular there is a real risk for the CBC right now. Their bias towards some collective ownership and agaisnt the Conservatives would be natural given what they are. However, the extreme partisanship and gaming they are displaying agaisnt the NDP is dangerous. If the Conservatives attack their funding a good many New Democrats could just stand by becuase of this. I wonder how many  people they are fooling - might be fewer than they think.

Agree with this.

And I think the Liberals predictably rolling out "a vote for the NDP is a vote for the Conservatives" can potentially blow up in their faces this time given their broken promise of electoral reform. They're counting on very short-term memory and that discarding electoral reform was no big deal. But I expect it's the biggest deal to those whom they're trying to court right now with this familiar appeal, and it's a bitter, fresh memory. So I don't think it will sound so appealing this year.

Also, if the Greens are ever going to have a new leader it should be following this election. Can they see yet that May is a liability? If May is leader for life then the party will be run into the ground.

bekayne

New Angus Reid:

http://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/2019.10.15_federal_Vote-1.pdf

Con 33 (-1) / Lib 29 (-) / NDP 19 (+2) /  BQ  8 (+1)  / Green  8 (-1) / PPC  3 (-)

bekayne

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Advance polls attract a few different groups:

1) Campaign workers -- there are many of them and there are more for the Liberals and Conservatives in some places than the NDP but of course there are ridings where this is not the case. Campaign workers do not want to vote on voting day.

2) Elderly people trying to avoid crowds as much as possible. This includes people needing assitance. Often people will help their parents get to the polls and then vote themselves on voting day. These will skew to Liberals and Conservatives.

3) shift workers or workers where getting time off to vote may be less than practical.

4) Election Canada workers whoa re working all day. (you would be surprised how many of them there are).

5) Military can vote anywhere by special ballot.

6) University students may vote by special ballot on campus or in their ridings if they returned home for Thanksgiving.

I think a large part of it growing is simply locking in your vote, so you don't have to obsess over it and tune out to a certain extent. I've been voting in various elections since 1984, and yesterday was the first time I've voted in an advance poll.

KarlL

NorthReport wrote:

Abacus, Leger, Nanos, Ipsos and Environics and CROP for Quebec seemed to be the most accurate ones I have seen. Angus Reid has changed and I don't have the confidence I used to have in them.  They used to be the most accurate pollster of all with CROP for Quebec. Angus Reid has changed ownership I believe, Environics are they still around - what happened to them and the same for CROP, what happened to them as well? 

I sort them into three rough camps: the hard partisans, the straight arrows and the oddballs.  

The hard partisans, in which I would include Nick Kouvalis' Campaign Research, John Wright's DART, and to only a slightly lesser degree, Darrell Bricker's IPSOS may not actually mess with the numbers but their spin is very slanted in the Conservatives' favour and given that the primary impact of polls is through the prism of media stories, the spin is a big part off their offering and how people perceive the results.  Frank Graves at EKOS is occasionally guilty of the same thing in an anti-Conservative way.

Greg Lyle's Innovative Research Group, Bruce Anderson's/David Coleto's Abacus and Nik Nanos' and Jean-Marc Leger's eponymous firms all seem pretty straight to me.  Greg Lyle was at one time a PC.  Bruce Anderson was a very active PC during the Clark and Mulroney periods but probably leans Liberal now. if anything.  I used to think that Nik Nanos had been a Tory at one point but I have no provenance for that and he got his firm going while pretty young at Queen's University, so maybe he has never had a party affiliation. I have no idea of David Coleto's or Jean-Marc Leger's politics, if any. 

Mainstreet is still unproven, to me at least.  Quito Maggi was a Liberal organizer in the past.  I don't quite know how to categorize him as he is not as obviously partisan in his commentary as the people in the first group.

I find Lorne Bozinoff's Forum and the Angus Reid Institute's Shachi Kurl's results to be just plain weird and often way out of the pack results-wise.  Liberals have come to dread a Forum or Angus Reid poll even thoug on very rare occasion they land in our favour.

Environic and CROP seem to have vacated the merket on fereal elections.

Sean in Ottawa

bekayne wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Advance polls attract a few different groups:

1) Campaign workers -- there are many of them and there are more for the Liberals and Conservatives in some places than the NDP but of course there are ridings where this is not the case. Campaign workers do not want to vote on voting day.

2) Elderly people trying to avoid crowds as much as possible. This includes people needing assitance. Often people will help their parents get to the polls and then vote themselves on voting day. These will skew to Liberals and Conservatives.

3) shift workers or workers where getting time off to vote may be less than practical.

4) Election Canada workers whoa re working all day. (you would be surprised how many of them there are).

5) Military can vote anywhere by special ballot.

6) University students may vote by special ballot on campus or in their ridings if they returned home for Thanksgiving.

I think a large part of it growing is simply locking in your vote, so you don't have to obsess over it and tune out to a certain extent. I've been voting in various elections since 1984, and yesterday was the first time I've voted in an advance poll.

I thought about this and then forgot to add it.

I think some being pressured to vote strategically or not may also want to get it over with to be able to say too late and stop the pressure.

knownothing knownothing's picture

bekayne wrote:

New Angus Reid:

http://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/2019.10.15_federal_Vote-1.pdf

Con 33 (-1) / Lib 29 (-) / NDP 19 (+2) /  BQ  8 (+1)  / Green  8 (-1) / PPC  3 (-)

NDP at 26% in BC, 20% in Ontario, and 12% in Quebec. Mulcair was on Power Play today and said the NDP might hold all their seats in Quebec.

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

knownothing wrote:

Mulcair was on Power Play today and said the NDP might hold all their seats in Quebec.

That doesn't sound like a man trying to destroy his former party. Perhaps some people have been too tough on Mulcair.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

It's possible that, due to its concentrated support, the BQ may have the actual balance of power in the next parliament.  This would essentially put the BQ, for the moment, in the same position the Irish Parliamentary Party was in in the British House of Commons at several points in the late 19th and early 20th century eras-yet put them there with a vote share that, unlike that of the Irish party, leaves them unable to argue that they have a mandate to push for sovereignty.  It's interesting to ponder what the BQ might do and what it would prioritize in that situation.

josh

Michael Moriarity wrote:

knownothing wrote:

Mulcair was on Power Play today and said the NDP might hold all their seats in Quebec.

With the Bloc polling 30%, I don’t see how that’s possible.

bekayne

knownothing wrote:

bekayne wrote:

New Angus Reid:

http://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/2019.10.15_federal_Vote-1.pdf

Con 33 (-1) / Lib 29 (-) / NDP 19 (+2) /  BQ  8 (+1)  / Green  8 (-1) / PPC  3 (-)

NDP at 26% in BC, 20% in Ontario, and 12% in Quebec. Mulcair was on Power Play today and said the NDP might hold all their seats in Quebec.

They won 16 seats with 25% of the vote. Nine were won by under 5%

Misfit Misfit's picture

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Last week surges being effective are much harder to do now given the proportion of people who now vote in advance or special ballots.

I do not see the Liberals droping to third at this point but I do see the potential for things among all three top parties being much closer than people expect.

Elections Canada opened a great deal more voting on university campuses and I am hearing rumours that many people voted.

Yah, I know! It was just the thought of trying to crash a corporate backed party would have been cool. Ya know, throw the idea out there and see if it catches on. Just for kicks.

I tried.

jerrym

KarlL wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

This looks like more right-wing bullshit - where's the proof as it reads like gobbledgygook, but these are the games that Liberals and Conservatives play

I have heard all that surge in advance polling is the result of young people's disenchantment with the Liberals, and who are turning out in big numbers for the NDP.

I have no idea if what you've heard is more accurate than Mainstreet's sampling methodology and actual samplee in this case but this being a thread about polling I thought that I should probably post it here.

 

There have major questions raised before about Mainstreet polling as the following article about the Calgary mayoral race illustrates.

A new report looking at the inaccuracies of Mainstreet Research’s polling methods during the 2017 Calgary municipal election is pointing fingers at a number of flaws with the poll’s results, what led to them and what happened in the aftermath. ...

As the mayoral candidates were in the final days of their election campaigns, a Mainstreet Research poll, commissioned by Postmedia — which publishes both the Calgary Herald and the Calgary Sun daily newspapers — changed the narrative, putting candidate Bill Smith in a 13-point lead over incumbent Naheed Nenshi.

“Barring some sort of miracle, he’ll be the mayor on Oct. 16,” Mainstreet president and CEO Quito Maggi said on Oct. 13, 2017. ...

What happened three days later stunned many Calgarians as Nenshi held tight to the mayor’s seat, winning with a 7.6-point lead. ...

Days later, Mainstreet Research apologized for what Maggi called a “catastrophic polling failure” that some argued interfered with the democratic process. ...

Months later, the Marketing Research Intelligence Association launched a review into the polling results. The association said the results were conflicting and underperforming, and the review would focus on the degree of inaccuracy, the reasons for the inaccuracies and whether the results were adequately given to the voting public.

The review was conducted by a panel of three independent academics — Dr. Christopher Adams with the University of Manitoba, professor Paul Adams at Carleton University and Dr. David Zussman with the University of Victoria — and it takes concern with a number of issues that arose as a result of the poll results. ...

The more than 70-page report also takes issue with Mainstreet’s “overconfidence” in its results when critics started voicing concerns. "Mainstreet executives responded with unshakeable confidence in their results and attacked their critics, often in personal terms, at one point suggesting there would be ‘payback’ after the election results were known,” the panel said. ...

The report said that confidence contrasted with the firm’s internal concerns over the poll results eventually led it to change its methodology — another point of contention within the polling.

Instead of using random-digit dialing, Mainstreet used phone numbers pulled from a “directory,” which pollster Janet Brown said meant the survey started out with a “flawed sample.”

The experts said the directory was under-representative of young voters who eventually made up a large portion of the unexpectedly high voter turnout. Mainstreet failed to provide more information on what that directory was or where it came from. ...

One of the biggest critics of the 2017 poll was Mount Royal University political scientist Duane Bratt. Bratt — who was one of the people interviewed by the panel — called the 2017 poll “a damaging blow to the entire polling industry. “All can agree that the polling during the 2017 Calgary election was bad,” he told Global News. “Moreover, it had a direct impact on the result — although we cannot properly ascertain what that impact was besides destroying Andre Chabot’s candidacy.” ...

In addition to Mainstreet itself, the report also placed some of the blame for the media and public confusion on Postmedia, which the panel argued “was not critical enough in its reporting of polls for which it was partially responsible.” Postmedia did not participate in the review.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4375306/report-flawed-calgary-election-pollin...

NorthReport

Valid comment Michael, however it was his previous NDP is going nowhere comments a few days ago that some folks found irritating. It's unfortunate he took this particular kind of job, but I suppose he has mortgage payments to make.

Michael Moriarity wrote:

knownothing wrote:

Mulcair was on Power Play today and said the NDP might hold all their seats in Quebec.

That doesn't sound like a man trying to destroy his former party. Perhaps some people have been too tough on Mulcair.

Sean in Ottawa

Misfit wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Last week surges being effective are much harder to do now given the proportion of people who now vote in advance or special ballots.

I do not see the Liberals droping to third at this point but I do see the potential for things among all three top parties being much closer than people expect.

Elections Canada opened a great deal more voting on university campuses and I am hearing rumours that many people voted.

Yah, I know! It was just the thought of trying to crash a corporate backed party would have been cool. Ya know, throw the idea out there and see if it catches on. Just for kicks.

I tried.

Two step process is okay. Balance of power and two years later do this. That is possible.

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

Valid comment however it was his previous NDP is going nowhere comments a few days ago that some folks found irritating. It's unfortunate he took this job but I suppose he has mortgage payments to make.

Michael Moriarity wrote:

knownothing wrote:

Mulcair was on Power Play today and said the NDP might hold all their seats in Quebec.

That doesn't sound like a man trying to destroy his former party. Perhaps some people have been too tough on Mulcair.

If you read the article he wrote

https://torontosun.com/opinion/columnists/mulcair-broken-promises-will-c...

"In the past, Liberals have usually been able to take out a big sponge and wipe the slate clean as voting day approached. There was peril at the gates and, sorry for the broken promises, but you have to vote for us again.

Perhaps not this time. Across Canada, the young people who coalesced around Trudeau in 2015 have found a charismatic new inspiration in Jagmeet Singh. In this era of social media, they’re going to be very hard to con, they are in touch with each other and they have their own priorities."

NorthReport

Sean,

I don't want to argue with you, but read what he said before the NDP surge. 

NorthReport

Singh's the reason for the season!

Angus Reid Institute poll shows continued momentum for NDP under Jagmeet Singh

The Conservatives remain in the lead among decided voters, followed by the Liberals

  • A new poll shows that NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has the highest favourability rating.

  • A new poll shows that NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh has the highest favourability rating.

The summary of a new poll carries these words in the headline: "Minority Report?"

It's the Angus Reid Institute's way of immediately conveying that the rise of the NDP and the Bloc Québécois is making a Conservative or Liberal majority less likely in the October 21 election.

Among decided voters, the Conservatives are in the lead at 33 percent, according to the poll, followed by the Liberals at 29 percent.

The NDP under Jagmeet Singh has risen to 19 percent, up five percentage points since the beginning of October.

Singh's favourability rating is 64 percent, up 25 percentage points since the start of the campaign.

Conservative Leader Andrew Scheer's favourability rating is 37 percent, compared to 36 percent for Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau.

Green Leader Elizabeth May's favourability rating is 47 percent, whereas Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet is at 56 percent.

The Greens and the Bloc are both at eight percent among decided voters.

"With election day approximately a week away, just half of Canadian voters (52%) say they are absolutely locked in to support one specific party," the Angus Reid Institute said in its report. "Thus, the vote result on October 21 will depend on personal calculations in the final days.

"On this front, the Conservatives hold the advantage: vote certainty among their supporters remains highest, while the NDP’s late momentum appears subject to change based on the fluidity of their supporters. The same phenomenon is seen among Green supporters, and to a lesser extent, among Liberal supporters."

https://www.straight.com/news/1314156/angus-reid-institute-poll-shows-continued-momentum-ndp-under-jagmeet-singh

Aristotleded24

bekayne wrote:
New Angus Reid:

http://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/2019.10.15_federal_Vote-1.pdf

Con 33 (-1) / Lib 29 (-) / NDP 19 (+2) /  BQ  8 (+1)  / Green  8 (-1) / PPC  3 (-)

I know there is MOE, but for context, when the Liberals were thrown out in 2006, they had 30% of the vote to the Conservative's 36%.

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

Sean,

I don't want to argue with you, but read what he said before the NDP surge. 

I did - it was disturbing and we all commented on it. I am just highlighting the change in tone.

NorthReport

NDP polling for the 1o most recent polls averages out to 18.3%

 

 

 

KarlL

Nanos this morning, effectively unchanged from the one released on Monday (Nanos having skipped polling on Monday night):

CON 32.5% (+0.4%) / LIB 31.9% (-0.4%)* / NDP 18.8% (-0.4%) / GRN 9.4% (+0.1%) / BQ 5.9% (flat) / PPC 1.1% (+0.1%) 

https://election.ctvnews.ca/nanos

* I should note that the CTV banner has a slight glitch on it as does the linked report.  I know that 0.5% is insignificant given the MOE but when I first saw the CTV/Nanos banner at 6:15 am this morning it had the Liberals -0.4% when compared to Monday's release.  It now shows the Liberals -0.9%.

But when I go back to Nanos October 14 release, the Liberals were then at 32.28%, so it seems to me that the initial -0.4% this morning was correct and the now-appearing -0.9% is wrong.

Just Watching

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

bekayne wrote:

So, this is my very first comment, so please be nice if I don't have it right, especially the quotes.

The group that you may be missing is the Jewish vote as they have a religious holiday on Monday and are not allowed to vote on that day.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Advance polls attract a few different groups:

1) Campaign workers -- there are many of them and there are more for the Liberals and Conservatives in some places than the NDP but of course there are ridings where this is not the case. Campaign workers do not want to vote on voting day.

2) Elderly people trying to avoid crowds as much as possible. This includes people needing assitance. Often people will help their parents get to the polls and then vote themselves on voting day. These will skew to Liberals and Conservatives.

3) shift workers or workers where getting time off to vote may be less than practical.

4) Election Canada workers whoa re working all day. (you would be surprised how many of them there are).

5) Military can vote anywhere by special ballot.

6) University students may vote by special ballot on campus or in their ridings if they returned home for Thanksgiving.

I think a large part of it growing is simply locking in your vote, so you don't have to obsess over it and tune out to a certain extent. I've been voting in various elections since 1984, and yesterday was the first time I've voted in an advance poll.

I thought about this and then forgot to add it.

I think some being pressured to vote strategically or not may also want to get it over with to be able to say too late and stop the pressure.

MegB

Continued here.

Sean in Ottawa

Just Watching wrote:

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

bekayne wrote:

So, this is my very first comment, so please be nice if I don't have it right, especially the quotes.

The group that you may be missing is the Jewish vote as they have a religious holiday on Monday and are not allowed to vote on that day.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Advance polls attract a few different groups:

1) Campaign workers -- there are many of them and there are more for the Liberals and Conservatives in some places than the NDP but of course there are ridings where this is not the case. Campaign workers do not want to vote on voting day.

2) Elderly people trying to avoid crowds as much as possible. This includes people needing assitance. Often people will help their parents get to the polls and then vote themselves on voting day. These will skew to Liberals and Conservatives.

3) shift workers or workers where getting time off to vote may be less than practical.

4) Election Canada workers whoa re working all day. (you would be surprised how many of them there are).

5) Military can vote anywhere by special ballot.

6) University students may vote by special ballot on campus or in their ridings if they returned home for Thanksgiving.

I think a large part of it growing is simply locking in your vote, so you don't have to obsess over it and tune out to a certain extent. I've been voting in various elections since 1984, and yesterday was the first time I've voted in an advance poll.

I thought about this and then forgot to add it.

I think some being pressured to vote strategically or not may also want to get it over with to be able to say too late and stop the pressure.

Very good point. I saw this and also forgot to add it.

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