2019 Polls

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NorthReport

The NDP are up in the latest poll

josh
WWWTT

Thanks for posting!

Prime example of how polls are used to stimulate a trend. 

Very liberal biased interpretation 

Pondering

Biased or realistic? Ridings matter or there would be no such thing as a "false majority".  To me all indications are that when push comes to shove voters will hold their noses and vote Liberal despite any disillusionment with Trudeau. Realistically my hope is for a minority Liberal government with the NDP holding the balance of power. That analysis holds out hope for that outcome so I am inclined to hope it is true. I disagree that the Greens are in contention for third place. 

Debater

I agree.  I don't think the Greens will beat the NDP.  Maybe some day in the future, but not this year.

Aristotleded24

Debater wrote:
I agree.  I don't think the Greens will beat the NDP.  Maybe some day in the future, but not this year.

They will certainly beat the NDP in Atlantic Canada.

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Debater wrote:
I agree.  I don't think the Greens will beat the NDP.  Maybe some day in the future, but not this year.

They will certainly beat the NDP in Atlantic Canada.

Where in all likelihood neither party will win any seats.

NorthReport

Exactly 

It’s a non-issue

Aristotleded24

Left Turn wrote:
Aristotleded24 wrote:

Debater wrote:
I agree.  I don't think the Greens will beat the NDP.  Maybe some day in the future, but not this year.

They will certainly beat the NDP in Atlantic Canada.

Where in all likelihood neither party will win any seats.

The NDP may win in St. Johns and Halifax. The Greens are in contention in Charlottetown and may win a seat or 2 in New Brunswick.

Ken Burch

NorthReport wrote:

Meanwhile back in the real world Conservatives are tied or are leading in 9 of the 13 most recent polls

It is truly unfortunate that the racist attacks on

Singh will deprive Canadians of a healthy alternative

 as the Liberals continue to crash and burn due

to the ineptude of their leader

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Canadian_federal_election

I have no use for the Liberals, but North, it really looks like you are pulling for a Conservative victory.  It's not going to help the NDP's chances for you to keep trying to make the Cons look like the favorites.

josh
Debater

The pollsters seem to have contradictory numbers on Atlantic Canada.  One week a pollster will have the Cons ahead, now this one has the Libs ahead, etc.

The only thing they seem to agree on is that NDP support is low in the Atlantic region.

Misfit Misfit's picture

 

 

Debater wrote:

The pollsters seem to have contradictory numbers on Atlantic Canada.  One week a pollster will have the Cons ahead, now this one has the Libs ahead, etc.

The only thing they seem to agree on is that NDP support is low in the Atlantic region.

 

well apparently they have no candidates in New Brunswick. So it is no wonder really.

Pondering

Well the election hasn't been called yet so plenty of time to go. The only MPs that matter are the potential cabinet ministers. The rest are bench warmers.

bekayne

Debater wrote:

The pollsters seem to have contradictory numbers on Atlantic Canada.  One week a pollster will have the Cons ahead, now this one has the Libs ahead, etc.

That's because national polls usually have a sample size of less than 100 for the Atlantic provinces. Those ones are worthless.

josh
Debater

So Cons are down 2, Libs up 2, NDP stable compared to last AR poll.

josh

Jody Wilson-Raybould is facing a tough fight to hold on to her Vancouver riding, with a new Mainstreet Research poll for iPolitics showing the former attorney general narrowly trailing Liberal candidate Taleeb Noormohamed.

The 493-person phone survey of voters in Vancouver Granville, conducted between Aug. 27-28, has Noormohamed leading the pack with 28.6 per cent of support, with Wilson-Raybould close behind at 26 per cent.

https://ipolitics.ca/2019/08/30/wilson-raybould-neck-and-neck-with-liberal-candidate-in-vancouver-granville-mainstreet-poll/

Debater

Thanks for the poll, Josh.

So the numbers for Vancouver Granville from that poll are:

Noormohamed, Liberal (28.6)

Wilson-Raybould, Independent (26)

Conservative (14.9)

Green (9.2)

NDP (7.3)

josh

Leger:

LPC 34

CPC 33

NDP 12

GPC 12

Bloc 5

PPC 3

NDP at 7 in Quebec, 15 in Ontario, 19 in BC and 3 in the Atlantic.

Liberals lead by 11 in Quebec and 7 in Ontario.

 

 

 

NorthReport

So the NDP are up in the latest poll

Debater

josh wrote:

Leger:

LPC 34

CPC 33

NDP 12

GPC 12

Bloc 5

PPC 3

NDP at 7 in Quebec, 15 in Ontario, 19 in BC and 3 in the Atlantic.

Liberals lead by 11 in Quebec and 7 in Ontario.

 

 

Interesting.  Close national race between the Libs & Cons, but regionals in Quebec, Ontario, BC & Atlantic seem to favour the Libs in seats.

And those numbers seem to confirm the Greens are still ahead of the NDP in the Atlantic (and Quebec).  The one good point for the NDP is that they seem to be ahead of the Greens in BC.

https://www.journaldemontreal.com/2019/08/31/lavortement-rattrape-scheer

JKR

NorthReport wrote:

So the NDP are up in the latest poll

Were the NDP below 12% in the previous poll?!?

bekayne

JKR wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

So the NDP are up in the latest poll

Were the NDP below 12% in the previous poll?!?

11%

Pondering

Debater wrote:

Thanks for the poll, Josh.

So the numbers for Vancouver Granville from that poll are:

Noormohamed, Liberal (28.6)

Wilson-Raybould, Independent (26)

Conservative (14.9)

Green (9.2)

NDP (7.3)

I would be hard put to decide between NDP and WR but I would go WR in the end. 

JKR

bekayne wrote:

JKR wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

So the NDP are up in the latest poll

Were the NDP below 12% in the previous poll?!?

11%

Have the Liberals ever polled as low as 12% or 11% in an opinion poll during Canada’s entire 152 history?

josh

EKOS:

LPC 37

CPC 33

GPC 10

NDP 7

Bloc 6

PPC 4

https://mobile.twitter.com/Qc_125/status/1168216251744829441/photo/1

 

R.E.Wood

Wow. Those EKOS numbers are shocking for the NDP. Lowest poll of the year for the party, and even if it's an outlier the time to panic in NDP HQ must be coming soon.  Historically, 7% is the percentage of votes the NDP won in 1993 when it was reduced to 9 seats.

ETA: I'm interested to see the update to 338's seat projections, which is promised sometime this afternoon.

Debater

EKOS seems to have the lowest numbers for the NDP, so the actual NDP number is probably several points higher -- Leger numbers are probably closer.  EKOS has been showing the NDP with low numbers for several months, often behind the Greens.  Most pollsters still show the NDP ahead of the Greens (although behind in certain regions like Atantic & Quebec).  Nevertheless, as R.E. Wood says, even though EKOS is probably a few points too low for the NDP, the trendline has been down.

The other change in that new EKOS poll is that it shows the Libs with a clear lead on the Cons for the first time since the SNC-Lavalin scandal.  EKOS often leans Liberal, but it's still a good result for the Libs and in line with the new Leger poll.

Aristotleded24

R.E.Wood wrote:
Wow. Those EKOS numbers are shocking for the NDP. Lowest poll of the year for the party, and even if it's an outlier the time to panic in NDP HQ must be coming soon.  Historically, 7% is the percentage of votes the NDP won in 1993 when it was reduced to 9 seats.

I don't think we'll see any panic within NDP HQ because I doubt they have the sense to know they should panic. I can remember in the 2015 campaign when the air began to go out of the balloon, I noticed that the campaign hadn't taken on the same tone of desparation that most losing campaigns usually do. It's now apparent that they didn't even realize that they were losing. Remember also that NDP strategists on national TV were actually smiling as the NDP seat count imploded because hey, at least Canadains voted for a progressive agenda.

josh

 

R.E.Wood wrote:

Wow. Those EKOS numbers are shocking for the NDP. Lowest poll of the year for the party, and even if it's an outlier the time to panic in NDP HQ must be coming soon.  Historically, 7% is the percentage of votes the NDP won in 1993 when it was reduced to 9 seats.

ETA: I'm interested to see the update to 338's seat projections, which is promised sometime this afternoon.

https://blog.338canada.com/2019/09/338canada-federal-update-sept1st-2019.html

JeffWells

The only "likely" NDP wins are Angus and Julian, and the potential lowest seat count has been revised to zero.

nicky

This is potentially carastrophic.

if the Greens surpass the NDP Canada will be left without any significanc social democratic oresence in its Parliament.

R.E.Wood

JeffWells wrote:

The only "likely" NDP wins are Angus and Julian, and the potential lowest seat count has been revised to zero.

I see the only "likely" wins as Angus and Jenny Kwan, with Julian's riding "leaning" NDP. Here's the breakdown from the 338 interactive map:

LIKELY NDP:

Timmins-James Bay - Charlie Angus

Vancouver East - Jenny Kwan

LEANING NDP:

New Westminster-Burnaby - Peter Julian

Vancouver Kingsway - Don Davies

Skeena-Bulkley Valley - Nathan Cullen (not running)

TOSS UP:

Burnaby South - Jagmeet Singh

Churchill-Keewatinook Aski - Niki Ashton

Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing - Carol Hughes

Rosemont-Le Petite Patrie - Alexandre Boulerice

And that's all, folks. 338 is forecasting a projected seat count for the NDP of 12.5 (ranging between 0.0 - 26.7), but based on the "likely", "leaning" and "toss up" seats he's giving to the NDP I'm only counting 9.  And what about a star candidate like Svend Robinson? 338 has the NDP in third place in Burnaby North-Seymour, 10 points back from a toss-up between the Libs and Cons. 

Due to the long weekend the 338 detailed analysis hasn't been posted yet, and that will be highly interesting to look at as well.

Pondering

A definitive loss is a good thing for those who want another leadership race and for the left of the party to take over. 

josh

It is a good thing.  But losing people like Boulerice, Ashton and Caron would offset that.

josh

Eric Grenier has the NDP at 14 seats.  One behind the Bloc.

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

 

pietro_bcc

Pondering wrote:

A definitive loss is a good thing for those who want another leadership race and for the left of the party to take over. 

People said the same thing about Mulcair losing, its nonsense. You don't win by losing.

JKR

Pondering wrote:

A definitive loss is a good thing for those who want another leadership race and for the left of the party to take over. 

A definitive loss might also be a good thing for the Greens and, of course, it would likely be a great thing for the Liberals. It might also be a good thing for those who want the NDP and Greens to merge. A definitive loss at this point may also insure that the NDP are never going to attain power at the federal level.

Misfit Misfit's picture

JKR wrote:

Pondering wrote:

A definitive loss is a good thing for those who want another leadership race and for the left of the party to take over. 

A definitive loss might also be a good thing for the Greens and, of course, it would likely be a great thing for the Liberals. It might also be a good thing for those who want the NDP and Greens to merge. A definitive loss at this point may also insure that the NDP are never going to attain power at the federal level.

I don’t agree. I have always felt that the NDP are never going to attain power at the federal level because the majority of Canadians believe that the Liberal party is progressive and that the NDP is too scary and will raise their taxes ridiculously high. The NDP is also not cool. Rednecks, bikers, and the undereducated have this notion that American traditional right-wing pro-capitalist values is what make North American great and desirable and the envy of the world.

However, the NDP will always be around just like the Liberals and the Conservatives. Back in 1993 the PC’s were reduced to 2 seats in the HoC and list party status. They regained their party status in the next election and won the election about a decade later.

There always seems to be roughly 18-20% of Canadians who identify with the NDP. This election is an exception to that rule but I think is just a temporary one. 

For one, Elizabeth May has better name recognition than she has had before and may even do well this election.  A sizeable chunk of the NDP vote has shifted to the Greens. However, I think that after this election and May retires, the Greens will slip back to roughly 5% in the polls.

A second reason why I think that this is a one term phenomenon is that I believe that racism is playing a role in this election as well. Yes, Jagmeet has not been dynamic so far but this election he may turn things around and impress some of us who are right now critical of him. However, there is another real possibility that some Canadians have shifted their support to the Greens because Jagmeet is Sikh and they won’t vote for him because of it.

So, if the NDP tank this election which is a real possibility then Jagmeet Singh will likely step down and the NDP can start to rebuild. I think that this will take a few elections but they will be back and I don’t see much of a future for the Greens at all.

Aristotleded24

R.E.Wood wrote:
JeffWells wrote:

The only "likely" NDP wins are Angus and Julian, and the potential lowest seat count has been revised to zero.

I see the only "likely" wins as Angus and Jenny Kwan, with Julian's riding "leaning" NDP. Here's the breakdown from the 338 interactive map:

LIKELY NDP:

Timmins-James Bay - Charlie Angus

Vancouver East - Jenny Kwan

LEANING NDP:

New Westminster-Burnaby - Peter Julian

Vancouver Kingsway - Don Davies

Skeena-Bulkley Valley - Nathan Cullen (not running)

TOSS UP:

Burnaby South - Jagmeet Singh

Churchill-Keewatinook Aski - Niki Ashton

Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing - Carol Hughes

Rosemont-Le Petite Patrie - Alexandre Boulerice

And that's all, folks. 338 is forecasting a projected seat count for the NDP of 12.5 (ranging between 0.0 - 26.7), but based on the "likely", "leaning" and "toss up" seats he's giving to the NDP I'm only counting 9.  And what about a star candidate like Svend Robinson? 338 has the NDP in third place in Burnaby North-Seymour, 10 points back from a toss-up between the Libs and Cons. 

Due to the long weekend the 338 detailed analysis hasn't been posted yet, and that will be highly interesting to look at as well.

Winnipeg Centre is also in play for the NDP. The candidate is excellent, people speak highly of her when I mention her name, and she is a phenomenal campaigner with an enthusiastic support base behind her. The national metrics haven't picked up on this, and they may not until all the votes are in.

JeffWells

pietro_bcc wrote:

People said the same thing about Mulcair losing, its nonsense. You don't win by losing.

You start over again by losing. The NDP is of course accustomed to losing, so it'll probably take nothing less than an historic calamity to kickstart the process.

The Canadian left needs a redo electorally. I don't know how anyone could argue otherwise, even now. If the NDP is wiped out federally in October that should at least make it evident to all. Except, I expect, its executive.

Aristotleded24

JeffWells wrote:
The Canadian left needs a redo electorally. I don't know how anyone could argue otherwise, even now. If the NDP is wiped out federally in October that should at least make it evident to all. Except, I expect, its executive.

The provincial section in BC is very well-positioned to win re-election in 2 years, the provincial section in Ontario is in an effective three-way tie for first place, the provincial section in Newfoundland and Labrador holds the balance of power in a minority legislature, and the provincial section in Alberta is presiding over the second-highest seat count it has ever achieved. Are things looking bad for the federal party? Yes. Is the picture totally bleak for the NDP across the country? No it isn't.

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Winnipeg Centre is also in play for the NDP. The candidate is excellent, people speak highly of her when I mention her name, and she is a phenomenal campaigner with an enthusiastic support base behind her. The national metrics haven't picked up on this, and they may not until all the votes are in.

The situation in Hamilton Centre is similar. It is, after all, Andrea Horwath's riding provincially, and David Christopherson was very popular. It's interesting that our candidate, Matthew Green, is running on his personal reputation as an activist and city councillor, and Singh's name and image are nowhere to be seen.

Pondering

The Liberals won by losing. The old guard wanted Ignatieff or at least Rae but Dion won and tried to go all progressive for real so he was knee-capped and Ignatieff appointed. He brought the Liberals lower than they could have imagined so they tried Rae promising he wouldn't run for the leadership but hoping he would be so popular members would insist. No such luck. In the shadows some power players decided to form around Trudeau to groom him for leadership.

In the case of the Liberals they stayed neoliberal because the party split was not ideological. In the NDP if the old guard goes down it will be replaced, I think, by a team that will be forced to be more responsive to the left. They don't have to go all Leap manifesto but they will have to get a lot closer in substance if not in name.

swallow swallow's picture

Michael Moriarity wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Winnipeg Centre is also in play for the NDP. The candidate is excellent, people speak highly of her when I mention her name, and she is a phenomenal campaigner with an enthusiastic support base behind her. The national metrics haven't picked up on this, and they may not until all the votes are in.

The situation in Hamilton Centre is similar. It is, after all, Andrea Horwath's riding provincially, and David Christopherson was very popular. It's interesting that our candidate, Matthew Green, is running on his personal reputation as an activist and city councillor, and Singh's name and image are nowhere to be seen.

This seems to also be the case in Sherbrooke, where Pierre-Luc Dusseault is hoping to hang on. 

quizzical

Gord Johns

Taylor Bachrach 

Richard Cannings

Debater

New piece today by Philippe Fournier:

Is the NDP on the verge of collapse?

Sep 2, 2019

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/this-weeks-338canada-projection-is-the-ndp-on-the-verge-of-collapse/

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

Aristotleded24 wrote:
Winnipeg Centre is also in play for the NDP. The candidate is excellent, people speak highly of her when I mention her name, and she is a phenomenal campaigner with an enthusiastic support base behind her. The national metrics haven't picked up on this, and they may not until all the votes are in.

Same may be of Svend in Burnaby North--Seymour, because of Svend's reputation from his 25 years as an MP, though it's harder to tell, because the Seymour portion of this riding tends to be unfavourable to the NDP. Though if this riding is in play because of Svend, the national metrics arn't picking it up, because they're specifically designed NOT to pick up this kind of thing.

Debater

Nanos numbers released on CTV Power Play today.  First time in a while that they are not behind a paywall.

LPC 35.4

CPC  31.3

NDP  15.7

GPC 10.3

PPC  1.6

[Last day of polling was August 30th.  Sample of 1000 people.  MOE 3.1%]

https://twitter.com/CTV_PowerPlay/status/1168996936822722562

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