If you look at distribution of NDP support federally -- it is not sufficient to guarantee party status.
Gone are the days whent he NDP support was ocncentrated enough to deliver a lot of seats in the 15% range. This is now spread with loads of what would become wasted votes.
It will really illustrate Trudeau's promise that people's vote woudl count. This next election will with all the parties running and the split vote distribution probably have a record number of wasted votes.
If you look at distribution of NDP support federally -- it is not sufficient to guarantee party status.
Gone are the days whent he NDP support was ocncentrated enough to deliver a lot of seats in the 15% range. This is now spread with loads of what would become wasted votes.
I don't know, my reading of the various polls is that Ontario and B.C. combined should give them at least 12-15.
Sean in Ottawa wrote:If you look at distribution of NDP support federally -- it is not sufficient to guarantee party status.
Gone are the days whent he NDP support was ocncentrated enough to deliver a lot of seats in the 15% range. This is now spread with loads of what would become wasted votes.
I don't know, my reading of the various polls is that Ontario and B.C. combined should give them at least 12-15.
I think BC will give them a few but Ontario may not produce all that much. My impression here is that support has been growing broadly but that it is not concentrated. The difference between a bunch of close, heartbreaking, seconds and wins is very thin. Ontario is extremely vulnerable to a Liberal collapse. If enough Liberal support goes Conservative, the NDP can even get the support level of last time and still lose.
I think BC will give them a few but Ontario may not produce all that much. My impression here is that support has been growing broadly but that it is not concentrated. The difference between a bunch of close, heartbreaking, seconds and wins is very thin. Ontario is extremely vulnerable to a Liberal collapse. If enough Liberal support goes Conservative, the NDP can even get the support level of last time and still lose.
I don't know about the rest of the province, but here in Hamilton, 3 of the 4 seats are NDP/Lib contests. Scott Duvall should be able to hold on in Hamilton Mountain, especially if the Libs are weakened. In my riding, Hamilton Centre, David Christopherson is retiring, but the NDP candidate will be Matthew Green, a city councillor in a ward that is included in the riding. In Hamilton East - Stoney Creek, the NDP finished a strong second in 2015, and Liberal weakness could only help.
Sean in Ottawa wrote:I think BC will give them a few but Ontario may not produce all that much. My impression here is that support has been growing broadly but that it is not concentrated. The difference between a bunch of close, heartbreaking, seconds and wins is very thin. Ontario is extremely vulnerable to a Liberal collapse. If enough Liberal support goes Conservative, the NDP can even get the support level of last time and still lose.
I don't know about the rest of the province, but here in Hamilton, 3 of the 4 seats are NDP/Lib contests. Scott Duvall should be able to hold on in Hamilton Mountain, especially if the Libs are weakened. In my riding, Hamilton Centre, David Christopherson is retiring, but the NDP candidate will be Matthew Green, a city councillor in a ward that is included in the riding. In Hamilton East - Stoney Creek, the NDP finished a strong second in 2015, and Liberal weakness could only help.
The 5 safest NDP seats in Ontario would include the 2 in Windsor, Timmins, Algoma and Hamilton Centre.
Sean in Ottawa wrote:I think BC will give them a few but Ontario may not produce all that much. My impression here is that support has been growing broadly but that it is not concentrated. The difference between a bunch of close, heartbreaking, seconds and wins is very thin. Ontario is extremely vulnerable to a Liberal collapse. If enough Liberal support goes Conservative, the NDP can even get the support level of last time and still lose.
I don't know about the rest of the province, but here in Hamilton, 3 of the 4 seats are NDP/Lib contests. Scott Duvall should be able to hold on in Hamilton Mountain, especially if the Libs are weakened. In my riding, Hamilton Centre, David Christopherson is retiring, but the NDP candidate will be Matthew Green, a city councillor in a ward that is included in the riding. In Hamilton East - Stoney Creek, the NDP finished a strong second in 2015, and Liberal weakness could only help.
I hope you are right and they stay that way.
The low number of incumbants give reasons to worry with these low polling numbers. Think of Kim Campbell's two seats with 16% of the vote. The NDP had 9 with under 7%. In that election the NDP seats were won mostly by incumbants. When a party has strong local incumbants their polling numbers are concentrated, without those the support tends to be wider and flatter. I admit, that despite this fear I have not gone through the current NDP ridings to see which ones appear safe.
Let's break it down a little though: the NDP has 28 seats outside Quebec. there are fears that the NDP could wash out there.
Take this poll aggrigator. https://www.calculatedpolitics.com/project/2019-canada-election/
They suggest NDP could get 33 seats at the levels in the poll. But if you drill down further you see the reasons for concern.
BC: NDP projected 6 seats down from 14. However, the Liberals are showing 32% and the Conservatives 33.8% Further Liberal losses could lead to increased NDP popular vote but if the conservative vote goes up significantly the NDP could lose more seats than even this projects.
Alberta: NDP Member not running again. Liberals at 20% NDP at 12. If the Liberals lose any more to the Conservatives, this seat, already without an incumbant, could be in jeapardy. This projection shows NDP holding its one seat but maybe in part becuase it does not track benefit of incumbancy.
Manitoba and Saskatchewan Again the Liberals are at nearly 20% with the Conservatives near 50%. If the Liberals lose any more to the Conservatives the NDP at half the Conservative vote could lose more. these provinces should not be looked at together since one leaned Liberal and the other Conservative in the last election. Projection of 6 might be overly optimistic in a Liberal meltdown. They had 5 last time.
Ontario in 2015 gave the CPC 35%, the Liberals 45 with the NDP 8 seats and 16% of the vote. This projection has the NDP lower in popular vote and getting 14 seats but it shows this with the Liberals and Conservatives nearly tied. A significant movement from the Liberals to the Conservatives will take away many of the three-way races that could deliver seats to the NDP even with mid-teens provincial support. The NDP would get few seats anywhere with mid-teens support if the Liberals do not have enough strength to make the races 3-way.
The Quebec poll show the NDP getting three in Quebec. This is based on a poll with the NDP at nearly 14% in Quebec and the BQ at 17. If the BQ increase and the NDP drop -- this is less likely.
Atlantic Canada: The NDP getting three with the Liberals and Conservatives nearly tied changes if either the Liberals or Conservatives pull ahead.
Now of course NDP could gain from further Liberal losses but this is not guaranateed and even if they do, a lopsided race between the two biggest parties means the NDP has to do more than gain a little to win.
My fear si the Liberals will sink so hard and fast that they will make it hard for the NDP to hold seats with anywhere near the polling results they have now.
This guy's forecasting a minority Conservative government
https://blog.338canada.com/2019/04/338-federal-projection-update-cpc-161.html
This guy's forecasting a minority Conservative government
https://blog.338canada.com/2019/04/338-federal-projection-update-cpc-161.html
The LPC, NDP and BQ together could form a coalition, with 172 seats. If this pollster is correct they could form a government if they defeat the CPC in a non-confidence motion. But it's early days.
Singh isn't just another politician in a suit, he's a self-proclaimed fashionista. Frankly I think his minority status helped him get away with something that would be more damaging to other politicians. An appearance in GQ would be a death knell for most other aspriring NDP leaders.
Holy crap NR. Can you spend more time putting the necessary information in these?
Look how far down you have to read to start guessing this is a provincial poll from Manitoba that your post starts with....
Well it shouldn't be unless the NDP wants people to think they really do intend to take everyone's money to give it to the poor forcing everyone to take vacations in Canada until everyone is equal.
Not a bad idea to indicate to people you can have money and still support the NDP. If someone from the 1% wants to support the NDP do they have to give away their money and they stuff first? Or is it the fashion is shallow thing?
CTV are running a message across their news screen:
‘Andrew Scheer’s Support Wavers’ and I think it was connected to Nanos
At the same time they interviewed Pauline Beange a Poly Sci Prof at U of T who said parties get elected sometimes even though the party is more popular than their leader
So the morale of the story is that it is not good enough to just damage Scheer’s political credibility we have to politically attack the Conservative party and its ideology as well
This is not as as well situation. It is critical to attack the Conservative ideology. The practice of the left to personify this is extremely serious in result. The right do this less.
Consider: The right demonizes the left. The left gets a neew leader and the left is still in the same shit.
The left demonizes the individual. After tremendous damage the demonized leader taps out and is replaced by a shiny new right wing leader who continues the damage.
The only way the left can answer the right is to connect these policies and results directly to the right-wing ideology.
Doing personal demonization of Harris -- brings Ford; of Harper, brings Scheer. It the right love it. They do their worst, soak up the bad reputation for the team and walk off with it leaving the team to continue.
If the left were to learn one lesson -- let this be it. It is a global problem Thatcher, Bush, Trump -- all in many ways may have had their personal aspects but they were able to represent the nastiness of the right wing and take the credit with them so that new right wing leaders can start fresh.
Give credit where credit is not only due but critical to prevent history repeating so close together that we have near unbroken right wing rule and the left when it comes to power has to sound "right" in order to be credible and therefore we get these neo Liberals from centre left parties. All this in part becuase we are losing the cultural war over what is attributed to individuals and what is attributed to the nasty ideology behind them.
I don't disagree entirely entirely but If Canada were to have an election today the ballot box question would be Justin's behaviour.
Election are won basically by political parties and/or their leaders. Discrediting the political idealogy of both is required, depending on the circumstances, that is if your goal is to win the election.
Liberals won in 2015 on Trudeau's personality. If the Conservatives win in 2019, it will be either on Trudeau's behaviour or Conservative idealogy more than Sheer's personality.
THE BEST MARKETING STRATEGY FOR WINNING AN ELECTION
What works for one party doesn't necessarily work for another. Professor Doug Chung discusses his research on presidential elections, and which marketing paths lead to victory.
https://www.hbs.edu/news/articles/Pages/chung-election-marketing.aspx
Justason Polling
Vancouver City (6 BC ridings)
Party / Election 15 / Apt 5 / Diff
NDP / 28% / 33% / Up 5%
Cons / 22% / 25% / Up 3%
Libs / 44% / 25%/ Down 19%
https://www.thestar.com/vancouver/2019/04/05/exclusive-wilson-raybould-could-beat-vancouver-riding-rivals-by-nearly-double-digits-poll-suggests.html
Pollster Nik Nanos
https://mobile.twitter.com/ctvqp/status/1114919710087241728
If a pollster doesn't believe his own polling, why should anyone else?
http://www.justasonmi.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/J843-Weighted-Percentage_v2.pdf
http://www.justasonmi.com/?p=5840
https://www.hilltimes.com/2019/04/08/liberals-may-be-down-due-to-snc-lavalin-controversy-but-not-out-for-the-upcoming-election-could-still-win-in-october-say-political-analysts/195304
Bear in mind this polling is over a 4 week period.
Nanos - Apr 5 19
Con - 35%
Lib - 33%
ND - 17%
Grn - 10%
BQ - 4%
People - 1%
http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/2019-04-05-Political-Package.pdf
From the same report:
Accessible Voters – Asked whether they would consider voting for each of the federal parties, 45.8 per cent of Canadians say they would consider voting Conservative while 45.5 per cent would consider voting Liberal. Four in ten (39.4%) would consider voting NDP, 34.0 per cent would consider voting Green, 9.1 per cent would consider voting for the People’s Party and 35.5 per cent would consider voting for the BQ.
Preferred Prime Minister – Nanos tracking has Trudeau as the preferred choice as PM at 30.7 per cent of Canadians followed by Scheer (27.2%), Singh (8.4%), May (7.6%) and Bernier (2.3%). Twenty three per cent of Canadians were unsure whom they preferred.
Qualities of a Good Political Leader – Few than half of Canadians (43.3%) believe Trudeau has the qualities of a good political leader while 39.7 per cent believe Scheer has the qualities of a good political leader. Three in ten (29.8%) say Jagmeet Singh has the qualities of a good political leader, while 35.4 per cent believe the same about May. One in six (17.6%) believe Bernier has the qualities of a good political leader 27.1 per cent said Blanchet has the qualities of a good political leader (QC only). Nanos Party Power Index – The Nanos Index which is a composite of a series of measures including ballot and leadership impressions has the Conservatives 51.7 points, followed by the Liberals with 51.0 points, the NDP 42.1 points, the Greens 38.6 points, the People’s Party 27.0 points and the BQ 33.2 points (QC only).
I also went to the break down on the Nanos site hoping to say "but look at the youth numbers" but they don't look so great for the NDP either. The Conservatives are depressingly strong too.
so the nanos poll shows the majority of Canadians want domethingboyher than Conservatives or Liberals lolololol
now we can see why neither will put PR in.
Conservatives have been in first place for 23 out of the last 24 polls, and the one poll the Liberals led in, is probably a pollster that is related to Trudeau.
Take a good look at the chart and you can clearly see by the trends who has momemtum, and who doesn't.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_2019_Canadian_federal_election
Trudeau’s personal brand continues to tarnish, new poll suggests
https://globalnews.ca/news/5146402/trudeau-nanos-poll/
The Liberals offered to have an Alternative Vote system that would have them cruising to an easy win given that they are most voters second choice.
Or people would feel free to not vote strategically because if their first choice didn't win their second might.
Conservative hatred of Liberals is so intense it might even lead some to make the NDP their second choice not the Liberals.
In any case, the Liberals never promised PR. Everyone here including myself knew that Trudeau did not want PR.
By the way, I am a PR convert with only one concern that would be taken care of with the Dion model.
Pondering your comment is inane.
Liberals’ base could be smaller than Conservatives’, poll suggests
By PETER MAZEREEUW APR. 12, 2019
The Liberals’ ‘ceiling’ of possible support shrank to 38 per cent during a three-day period earlier this month, below the vote share the party won in the last election.
https://www.hilltimes.com/2019/04/12/liberals-base-could-be-smaller-than-conservatives-poll-suggests/196314
I refer everyone to NR's thread 'Andrew Scheer,not the right replacement for Justin Trudeau that Canadians want'
This is what I have been screaming my head off about. You all hate Trudeau and you don't seem to care that his replacement is much much worse.
That's the point I have been making in the past 2 months or so. Check out the thread to remind yourselves.
Call me a troll but I know in the back of your minds you know I'm right.
Campaign Research:
Con 34 (-2) / Lib 32 (+2) / NDP 15 (-1) / Green 10 (same)
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1jowKMlUteyyeDw8SBHkaK0bWdf75bBqt/view
It seems that the non-Conservative political parties are not up to the task but we will only have ourselves to blame if the Conservatives win again
What about this strategy that was proposed but never adopted or is it already too late for that now?
Problems I see with this are as follows:
There is no question, no matter how many problems the Liberals have, they are much better than the Conservatives. Liberals though think they are King Tut and everybody needs to do only what Liberals say, but Liberals cannot do this alone anymore, and maybe never will be able to again. As long as the Liberals keep focusing on smashing the NDP as opposed to the Conservatives, they are just shooting themselves in the foot.
NDP know that Liberals are the party of big business just like the Conservatives so they are reticent to join forces, but do NDPers really want to be contributing to another Conservative government? In politics as in the other areas of life, one never gets everything they want, and wise people understand successful politics is always part compromise.
The Greens have the right issue, climate change, the wrong leadership, but at least they know that time is running out for life on Planet Earth.
Cullen calls for joint nominations to beat Harper
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cullen-calls-for-joint-nominations-to-beat-harper-1.1005626
I agree. I just get infuriated when people seem to get pleasure with the scenario of a Conservative government. That would be bad news for all leftists.
How dop we put an end to the 2 party solution? I mean the NDP ar 15%? What can we do without getting excited by Liberals free falling at the benefit of the Conservatives?
Yes, the Liberals are elitist,corporate and corrupt as are the CPC. At least we get some progress with the LIbs. We get NOTHING but hard times with the Cons.
I can't speak for every voter but I find the SNC Lavalin 'scandal' and it's a real canard.
SNC Lavalin has been corrupt for many years,,it's kind of an open secret here in Quebec ...They were corrupt during the Chrétien era, the Maretin era and the Harper era..I think they were corrupt when Mulroney was still PM.
They and Trudeau knew they were but ignored it to keep jobs in Canada. They're all guilty.
That's why I call JWR a Conservative operative and someone who took a fit when she was demoted out of Justice Minister. I highly question her motives but if sahe gives us Scheer, I will hold a grudge. I hope her political career is over. But it's not likely.
As long as the Conservatives don't get a majority they can be overthrown as the Liberals were in BC. The possibility of Conservatives winning this far out can't be a reason not to criticize the Liberals. I do hope that the NDP also condemns the Conservatives but the NDP cannot be blamed for Liberal losses.
Not even JWR can be blamed. Trudeau should have stopped his staff from saying anything further in September. He could have switched her out shortly after. He didn't want to lose her as AG because she was good for his image. He judged correctly that she would want to stay AG but incorrectly in that he thought she wanted it enough to do his bidding. He (or his minions) should have figured out much sooner that she was not going to play ball.
I think Instant Runoff Voting is preferable to joint-nominations.
.
What does message can be taken in the fact that 35.5% of those polled would consider voting for a party which doesn't nominate candidates in their province and ultimately doesn't want to be part of their country?
The qualities of a good leader for Blanchet question was limited to Quebec. It doesn't say the same for party but I suspect it is. I very much doubt 35% of Canadians would consider voting Bloc.
Maybe 35% in Québec. But I highly doubt that too.
I’d be surprised if it was only 35% of people in Quebec who would consider voting Bloc.
I have been saying for a while here that I think the BQ will be the surprise in this election. With people in Quebec turninga away from the BQ, fury with the Liberals, the impression that the Conservatives offer nothing -- the BQ, sounding as close as it can to the CAQ, is going to do very well. I think it may end up agan with the balance of power.
Sadly, I think they will side with the Conservatives.
82% of Quebecers do not want to revisit separation.
https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYTJhNmM3ZWQtYjc5Mi00NTRmLTgyZWItODFlZDMyNTg5MjZiIiwidCI6IjJmMmY5NDEyLWY5YjktNDE0ZC1iMDBmLTc4NjJhMzk1YjQxOCIsImMiOjN9&pageName=ReportSection10
Liberals still have a substantial lead in Quebec. The Bloc looks to be about 20%.
The CAQ did not win because Quebec is moving right they won because they are the only federalist alternative to the Liberals and Quebecers wanted a change. With 82% of Quebecers not wanting to revisit independence as long as the left insists on embracing it the right will win.
Forum
C - 42%
L - 29%
N - 12%
Saw the numbers, knew right away the pollster.
All of which simply makes the case that you can give it a rest about demanding that every party in Quebec renounce sovereigntism. It's enough that it's off the table. Let it go.
http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/63c60d6a-b688-48df-9b68-9f4b343e55a2HORSERACE%20April%2011%202019.pdf
-For voters under 34, the Conservatives have a 22% lead and more than the Liberals and NDP combined
-Conservatives lead by 27% with men
-in Quebec, Liberals are at 30% (-24 from 3 weeks ago), BQ at 23% (+19), NDP at 6%
-in BC, the Conservatives have a 22% lead and more than the Liberals and NDP combined
-Conservatives lead with those making <$20,000
QS must remain authentic so they cannot renounce sovereigntism. QS must support sovereignism. Can you understand what I am saying here, and have always said? If QS were to renounce sovereigntism they would lose a tremendous amount of support. Sovereignty still has by some accounts 35% support in Quebec. That is very high. That is a solid large core.To run on it makes them appear delusional.
They must begin with the acknowledgement that many Quebecers, including supporters of sovereignty, recognize that Quebecers are exhausted with the topic. About 50% of sovereignists don't want to talk about it.
35% support is really high but it is split between left and right. No more than 20 to 25% is on the left. Non-sovereignists account for 65% of voters. Of them many have been willing to vote for the PQ anyway. There are leftists that don't see sovereignty as a realistic option. I'm sure Brexit hasn't helped. Supporters of sovereignty are split between those who consider Quebec borders sacred and those that acknowledge indigeneous peoples have the same right to break off .
QS needs to say:
We are still firmly convinced that Quebec would be better governed if we were fully independent but we understand that Quebecers don't want to revisit the topic. Quebecers want a government that will manage what power they already have in the service of the people. We wish to prove to Quebecers that corruption can be defeated. We can have policies that benefit workers and families while still creating employment.
Our economic future is dependent on a healthy well-educated population. Money spent on children doesn't show its full impact economically for a decade or two but governments need to have the courage and integrity to think long-term not just the next 4 years.
The provinicial government has enough power to dramatically improve the lives of 99% of Quebecers. That is what we want to do and it will take more than 4 years, but 4 years is a start. Short term while we can't give unions everything they want we can engage in honest non-confrontational negotiations that take into account the public purse as well as the needs of workers.
That isn't actually well-written. It isn't focused or concrete enough to be convincing.
QS does not have to renounce sovereighty but it does have to appear to have at least one foot on earth. Right now sovereignty appears to be their main unifying reason for existing. I want them to win an election. If we get PR I want their focus to be on things that are important to Quebecers rather that what is important to QS.
New Nanos:
http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/Political-Package-2019-04-12-FR.pdf
Con 35.0 (+ 0.1) / Lib 34.1 (+ 1.3) / NDP 14.9 (- 1.7) / Green 8.8 (- 0.7)
New from Innovative Research:
https://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/CanadaThisMonth_SNCLavalin-April-2019.pdf
Lib 36 / Con 32 / NDP 13 / Green 10
Pondering, QS has always put a sovereign Quebec as a low priority. When they had 10 main planks in their platform it was number 10. They now have 14, and sovereignty is number 14. And the points have always been listed in order of priority.
https://plateforme.quebecsolidaire.net/
But it doesn't play out like that when they speak. A few months ago when commenting on climate change they mentioned independence would be needed to achieve progress. Sovereignty may be #14 but if whenever they discuss the other 13 they say it would be better achieved if we had sovereignty then their first issue is really sovereignty.