2019 Polls

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Sean in Ottawa

Badriya wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

This guy's forecasting a minority Conservative government

https://blog.338canada.com/2019/04/338-federal-projection-update-cpc-161.html

The LPC, NDP and BQ together could form a coalition, with 172 seats.  If this pollster is correct they could form a government if they defeat the CPC in a non-confidence motion.  But it's early days.

On the other hand the BQ could side with the CPC -- especially over issues of immigration etc.

NorthReport

Brutal for the Liberals

The Conservatives lead by 12% in Ontario and the NDP tied with the Liberals for second place with 28% each

https://globalnews.ca/news/5191123/federal-election-seat-projection-trudeau-liberals-minority/

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

Brutal for the Liberals

The Conservatives lead by 12% in Ontario and the NDP tied with the Liberals for second place with 28% each

https://globalnews.ca/news/5191123/federal-election-seat-projection-trudeau-liberals-minority/

Will be interesting to see if the Liberals are able to reverse this. As a government they have considerable influence on the agenda and I would not rule that out but time is getting shorter and history suggest this is a deep hole to be in.

That said, I think we have to understand that fewer and fewer people vote so the opinions of a smaller and smaller minority decide what happens. Elections matter and people are swayed by what is put in the window. The health of the economy is another question and it always has a major effect -- if the economy is bad in October then it is likely lights out for the government. However, if the economy is okay -- even if not great -- then things may not be so grim.

The other variable is the situation with the Conservative governments in the provinces. There are many provinces making controversial decisions that could lead to people thinking twice about a Conservative multi-jurisdictional lock. This could have people looking to the NDP, Greens or BQ (in any quantity) or moving back to the Liberals to prevent the Conservatives from winning. It would mean a lot would be at stake for the campaign itself.

The best news for the NDP is the possibility that the people who are looking to the Conservatives might rethink that but those looking to other parties, including the NDP might not return.

I have predicted that strategic voting will come up and the fact that it is even coming up will make some people very angry -- and those will be the people upset about being put in a difficult position -- in other words, the very switchers that benefit the Liberals when they are in trouble. I do not know if this even has to be verbalised in the media or campaign for it to be a factor. I already know a few who just will not bring themselves to help a Liberal who is drowning electorally after that.

October is an interesting month. It is not long after schools have started again. In Ontario, kids will be coming home speaking about the effects of the cuts. Parents will see these and some may be given pause. The Ontario budget cuts will remain a topic and will be biting. Flu season will be starting and the over-stretched and recently cut health care system here will be sinking in to Ontario. Some backlash against Ford, and even against his attempts to fight the carbon tax could be happening. It is possible that Ontario will go blue but it is also possible that a rethink will happen. I think many Liberals who would consider the Conservatives and rethink are more likely to go back to the Liberals than other parties.

As well, polls now remain, as I always say, tests of enthusiasm tmore than real measures of strength given the small number who agree to take a survey. Surveys were accurate only in so far as they are random. I do not think that taking a political poll now is a truly random sample.

All this to say that almost anything can happen.

The good news for the NDP is that doing worse than 2015 in popular vote (other than in Quebec) is looking less and less likely. In the next few months things might even get better than that.

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

Brutal for the Liberals

The Conservatives lead by 12% in Ontario and the NDP tied with the Liberals for second place with 28% each

https://globalnews.ca/news/5191123/federal-election-seat-projection-trudeau-liberals-minority/

That poll is from March 28

JKR

bekayne wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Brutal for the Liberals

The Conservatives lead by 12% in Ontario and the NDP tied with the Liberals for second place with 28% each

https://globalnews.ca/news/5191123/federal-election-seat-projection-trudeau-liberals-minority/

That poll is from March 28

And the news article NR referred to says that current opinion polls are showing that the Liberals are currently favoured to win the next election. Doesn’t sound brutal to me.

NorthReport

Actually those stats were from IPSOS' most recent poll

---------------------------------

Now what the article does state and Liberals go crazy - celebrate all you want, eh!

Seat projection shows Trudeau Liberals slip out of majority position

The accompanying table indicated that the Liberal Party has dropped some 30 seats since the previous LISPOP projection six months ago. The Conservatives have made comparable gains during the period, and it produces the prospect of a minority government for the Liberals.

https://globalnews.ca/news/5191123/federal-election-seat-projection-trudeau-liberals-minority/

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

JKR wrote:

bekayne wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Brutal for the Liberals

The Conservatives lead by 12% in Ontario and the NDP tied with the Liberals for second place with 28% each

https://globalnews.ca/news/5191123/federal-election-seat-projection-trudeau-liberals-minority/

That poll is from March 28

And the news article NR referred to says that current opinion polls are showing that the Liberals are currently favoured to win the next election. Doesn’t sound brutal to me.

That would put the NDP twelve points above its Ontario showing in 2015, which should give the party a chance for some significant gains there, right?

bekayne

Ken Burch wrote:

JKR wrote:

bekayne wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Brutal for the Liberals

The Conservatives lead by 12% in Ontario and the NDP tied with the Liberals for second place with 28% each

https://globalnews.ca/news/5191123/federal-election-seat-projection-trudeau-liberals-minority/

That poll is from March 28

And the news article NR referred to says that current opinion polls are showing that the Liberals are currently favoured to win the next election. Doesn’t sound brutal to me.

That would put the NDP twelve points above its Ontario showing in 2015, which should give the party a chance for some significant gains there, right?

True, but every other pollster has them between 12-18%

NorthReport

24 of the last 26 polls show the Liberals trailing the Cons, but sure the Liberals are going to win the next election. Sure they are!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_2019_Canadian_federal_election

Pondering

NANOS

July 31 2015 ..........Cons 31.5    NDP 30.1  Liberal 29.3   (Liberals 3rd place from June 7th)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_Canadian_federal_election#Campaign_period

The NDP was in first place on September 17th. September 31st the Cons were in 1st place. The election was on October 19th.

It is way to early to predict based on polling numbers. 

NorthReport
bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

C 36%

L  32%

N 19%

G 8%

B 5%

P 0% Not good

https://globalnews.ca/news/5204965/liberals-conservatives-ipsos-poll-snc-lavalin/

Still not prompting for the Green Party. Ridiculous. They have the Liberals leading in BC by 19% based on a sample of 110. They have the Conservatives leading by 15% in Atlantic Canada based on a sample of 60.

https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/Liberals-Regain-some-Ground-Against-Conservatives

JeffWells
Pondering

Numbers can be so deceiving. 

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2019/04/28/liberal-support-hits-new-low-but-tories-not-exactly-surging-poll_a_23718514/?utm_hp_ref=ca-news

Still, when asked if Canada would be better off with a Liberal or Conservative government, 30 per cent chose the Liberals and 25 per cent picked the Tories. Fully 45 per cent said they didn't know.

Among respondents who identified as primarily NDP or Green supporters, a Liberal government was preferred by 48 and 42 per cent respectively, compared to just 18 and 23 per cent who preferred a Conservative government.

45% didn't know. That is huge when the campaigns haven't even begun. 

Sean in Ottawa

Pondering wrote:

Numbers can be so deceiving. 

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2019/04/28/liberal-support-hits-new-low-but-tories-not-exactly-surging-poll_a_23718514/?utm_hp_ref=ca-news

Still, when asked if Canada would be better off with a Liberal or Conservative government, 30 per cent chose the Liberals and 25 per cent picked the Tories. Fully 45 per cent said they didn't know.

Among respondents who identified as primarily NDP or Green supporters, a Liberal government was preferred by 48 and 42 per cent respectively, compared to just 18 and 23 per cent who preferred a Conservative government.

45% didn't know. That is huge when the campaigns haven't even begun. 

Yes, some hope there for the NDP perhaps as the polls showing 12% or so are downright scary.

I see more chatter now about Green-NDP merger talks have gotten into the media and not becuase either party is that interested but that some supporters are so frustrated with the prospects of the two parties potentially getting 15-20% between them and little to show for that.

NorthReport

CBC are talking right now about a poll showing Liberals 13% behind the Conservatives!

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

CBC are talking right now about a poll showing Liberals 13% behind the Conservatives!

Which show????

JKR

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

CBC are talking right now about a poll showing Liberals 13% behind the Conservatives!

Which show????

 

Mr. Dressup?

Sean in Ottawa

So the poll is Leger

CPC 40%

LPC 27%

NDP 12%

Greens 11%

PP3%

BQ in QC 23 tied with CPC Liberals at 31

CPC leading in all parts of the country except QC

ETA -- actually just saw this was posted upthread.

NorthReport

Power and Politics CBC Newsworld

13% lead by the Conservatives - Holy Shit!

Sure looks like A Trudeau Liberal disaster in the making come October

Pondering

Looks off to me. There is no reason for the CPC to be so popular nor the NDP to be so unpopular. A recent poll put undecided at 45%.  

NorthReport

13% behind will take a major change in approach by the Liberals if they have any hope whatsoever of winning the election. Yes things can change on a dime in politics but to overcome this kind of deficit it will take a major miracle for those who believe in miracles. Does anyone here believe in them? 

 

 

Sean in Ottawa

Pondering wrote:

Looks off to me. There is no reason for the CPC to be so popular nor the NDP to be so unpopular. A recent poll put undecided at 45%.  

It would not be off if the undecided is that high. This would make sense. Undecided would most likely be between Liberals Greens and NDP and not Conservatives. That would inflate the Conservatives at cost of the others.

We cannot be certain and this could be very bad news or it could be, as you suggest, due to a large number of undecided.

NorthReport

On the same show today another poll was mentioned that may be released soon as well which shows  the Conservatives with not quite such a big lead 

Pondering

The exact same Leger poll gives the Liberals 30% and the Conservatives 25% .

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2019/04/28/liberal-support-hits-new-low-but-tories-not-exactly-surging-poll_a_23718514/?utm_hp_ref=ca-news

Still, when asked if Canada would be better off with a Liberal or Conservative government, 30 per cent chose the Liberals and 25 per cent picked the Tories. Fully 45 per cent said they didn't know.

These are much more important numbers to me. Come voting day people will vote for the party they think they will be better off with. 

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

On the same show today another poll was mentioned that may be released soon as well which shows  the Conservatives with not quite such a big lead 

Tomorrow's Nanos has a 3% Conservative lead.

R.E.Wood

The latest Nanos:

Conservatives 34.9

Liberals 32.0

NDP 16.5

Greens 9.0

BQ 4.1

PPC 0.5

Preferred Prime Minister 

Trudeau 31.8

Scheer 26.7%

Singh 8.7% 

May 8.4%

Bernier 1.6%

NorthReport

bekayne wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

On the same show today another poll was mentioned that may be released soon as well which shows  the Conservatives with not quite such a big lead 

Tomorrow's Nanos has a 3% Conservative lead.

There is also another poll soon be to be released which shows a tighter spread than the 13% lead by the Conservatives in the Leger poll.

Pondering

It doesn't make sense for the Conservatives to have the lead as a party yet Trudeau remains the favored PM. 

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

bekayne wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

On the same show today another poll was mentioned that may be released soon as well which shows  the Conservatives with not quite such a big lead 

Tomorrow's Nanos has a 3% Conservative lead.

There is also another poll soon be to be released which shows a tighter spread than the 13% lead by the Conservatives in the Leger poll.

Well, every single other pollster not named "Forum" has shown a tighter spread. 

Sean in Ottawa

Pondering wrote:

It doesn't make sense for the Conservatives to have the lead as a party yet Trudeau remains the favored PM. 

Actually it does. Think about it: Many supporting the Liberals and the Conservatives will support their leaders although a slight preference for the current PM is frequent and you can see it where Scheer is down. Trudeau may also have the nod from those who would support other parties particularly NDP and Greens but where those supporters are not happy with the leadership. Here you can see both parties ahead of the leader.

It seems that quite a few who would support the Greens, NDP and even the Conservatives do not think their leader is better as PM than Trudeau. The exception is that Bernier is running ahead of his party. This is not a suprise either as a number of Conservatives would prefer him but still not abandon their party.

There is remarkable consistency in the narrative here suggesting this poll makes internal logical sense.

Sean in Ottawa

Pondering wrote:

The exact same Leger poll gives the Liberals 30% and the Conservatives 25% .

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2019/04/28/liberal-support-hits-new-low-but-tories-not-exactly-surging-poll_a_23718514/?utm_hp_ref=ca-news

Still, when asked if Canada would be better off with a Liberal or Conservative government, 30 per cent chose the Liberals and 25 per cent picked the Tories. Fully 45 per cent said they didn't know.

These are much more important numbers to me. Come voting day people will vote for the party they think they will be better off with. 

Well only if you confuse the question of which party you support and which party you think would be best to govern. Again support for third parties would be more likely to back the Liberals over the Conservatives on this -- it is not uncommon for supporters of third parties to still not select their party for government.

Sean in Ottawa

Pondering wrote:

The exact same Leger poll gives the Liberals 30% and the Conservatives 25% .

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2019/04/28/liberal-support-hits-new-low-but-tories-not-exactly-surging-poll_a_23718514/?utm_hp_ref=ca-news

Still, when asked if Canada would be better off with a Liberal or Conservative government, 30 per cent chose the Liberals and 25 per cent picked the Tories. Fully 45 per cent said they didn't know.

These are much more important numbers to me. Come voting day people will vote for the party they think they will be better off with. 

Well no -- this never happens. You are not thinking about how people who support third parties think -- some want them represented, or as conscience, or for the future but not as the government right now. They are still more likely to stay with their choice. Best for government and worthy of support are two questions that people often do not feel the need to be consistent about.

josh

Forum:

Cons 37

Libs 30

NDP 14

Greens 9

Bloc 6

PP 2

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2945/fed-horserace-april-2019

 

NorthReport

Support for federal Liberals still sliding on P.E.I.: poll

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/prince-edward-island/pei-mqo-federal-poll-1.5119886

josh

Angus-Reid:

Cons 38

Libs 25

NDP 18

Greens 11

Bloc 5

PP 3

http://angusreid.org/federal-politics-may-2019/

R.E.Wood

josh wrote:

Angus-Reid:

Cons 38

Libs 25

NDP 18

Greens 11

Bloc 5

PP 3

http://angusreid.org/federal-politics-may-2019/

There's a lot to unpack in the Angus-Reid poll, including a couple things that stood out to me -- the leaders' net approval ratings, and people's top choice for PM:

  • Conservative leader Andrew Scheer (40% approve, 46% disapprove), NDP leader Jagmeet Singh (34% vs 45%) and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (28% vs 67) all have negative net approval scores. Only Green Party leader Elizabeth May is approved of by more Canadians than disapprove of her (45% vs 34%)
  • One area where Andrew Scheer has distinguished himself from the other leaders is on the question of who would make the best Prime Minister. One-in-three Canadians (34%) say the Conservative leader is best suited to hold the nation’s top job, compared to 21 per cent who say this of Trudeau. One-quarter of Canadians (25%) say they remain unsure at this point.

The Angus-Reid graphic also shows Elizabeth May has 12% support for PM, while Jagmeet Singh comes in last with only 8%. That is a major reason why the NDP is not significantly benefitting from the Liberal's decline, because people think Singh would be the worst choice for PM. 

NorthReport

Conservative lead widens as Liberals hit new low

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

Pondering

Amazing that no one is undecided. 

bekayne

Nanos is a telephone poll, Forum and Mainstreet are IVR, all the rest are online. Nanos is a sample of 1000 across Canada, no regional breakdowns.

 

BC

 

Con 39 / Lib 19 / NDP 29 / Gre 11 / PPC  3  (Angus Reid, Apr 26-30, 170) 

Con 23 / Lib 42 / NDP 22 / Oth 12     (Ipsos, Apr 23-25, 100)

Con 37 / Lib 21 / NDP 22 / Gre 14 / PPC  4  (Forum, Apr 23-24, 160)

Con 45 / Lib 22 / NDP 16 / Gre 15 / PPC  2  (Leger, Apr 18-22, 122)

Con 27 / Lib 26 / NDP 25 / Gre 22 / PPC  9  (Nanos, Mar-Apr 26)

Con 29 / Lib 30 / NDP 21 / Gre 16 / Oth  4  (Innovative, Apr  4-10, 531)

Con 33 / Lib 27 / NDP 19 / Gre 19 / PPC  2  (Campaign Research, Apr 3-6, 180)

Con 35 / Lib 30 / NDP 18 / Gre 12 / PPC  5  (Mainstreet Research, Mar 19-26, 877)

 

Con 31 / Lib 31 / NDP 21 / Gre 14 / PPC  3  (P.J. Fournier's Projections at 338canada.com)

 

AB

 

Con 60 / Lib 12 / NDP 24 / Gre  1 / Oth  2  (Angus Reid, Apr 26-30, 147)

Con 63 / Lib 23 / NDP 11 / Oth  3     (Ipsos, Apr 23-25, 86)

Con 66 / Lib 14 / NDP 13 / Gre  3 / Oth  3  (Forum, Apr 23-24, 160)

Con 65 / Lib 14 / NDP  8 / Gre  9 / PPC  4  (Leger, Apr 18-22, 114)

Con 54 / Lib 21 / NDP 13 / Gre  7 / Oth  5  (Innovative, Apr  4-10, 506)

Con 50 / Lib 24 / NDP 12 / Gre  8 / PPC  5  (Campaign Research, Apr 3-6, 149)

Con 65 / Lib 19 / NDP  9 / Gre  3 / PPC  4  (Mainstreet Research, Mar 19-26, 1119)

 

Con 59 / Lib 20 / NDP 12 / Gre  5 / PPC  3  (P.J. Fournier's Projections at 338canada.com)

 

SK/MB

 

Con 49 / Lib 14 / NDP 22 / Gre 10 / PPC  6  (Angus Reid, Apr 26-30, 179)       

Con 51 / Lib 27 / NDP 16 / Oth  6     (Ipsos, Apr 23-25, 88)

Con 58 / Lib 26 / NDP  7 / Gre  8 / Oth  1  (Forum, Apr 23-24, 121)

Con 51 / Lib 22 / NDP  9 / Gre 12 / PPC  4  (Leger, Apr 18-22, 98)

Con 59 / Lib 20 / NDP 14 / Gre  5 / PPC  1  (Nanos, Mar-Apr 26, includes Alberta)

Con 40 / Lib 25 / NDP 20 / Gre  5 / Oth 10  (Innovative, Apr  4-10, 103)

Con 45 / Lib 29 / NDP 14 / Gre  8 / PPC  4  (Campaign Research, Apr 3-6, 83)

Con 52 / Lib 22 / NDP 14 / Gre  7 / PPC  3  (Mainstreet Research, Mar 19-26, 1406)

 

Con 49 / Lib 25 / NDP 17 / Gre  6 / PPC  3  (P.J. Fournier's Projections at 338canada.com)

 

ON

 

Con 37 / Lib 32 / NDP 14 / Gre 12 / PPC  4  (Angus Reid, Apr 26-30, 417)  

Con 34 / Lib 34 / NDP 25 / Oth  7     (Ipsos, Apr 23-25, 308)

Con 36 / Lib 34 / NDP 17 / Gre  9 / PPC  3  (Forum, Apr 23-24, 595)

Con 39 / Lib 29 / NDP 17 / Gre 12 / PPC  2  (Leger, Apr 18-22, 515)

Con 39 / Lib 37 / NDP 16 / Gre  7 / PPC  0  (Nanos, Mar-Apr 26)

Con 34 / Lib 41 / NDP 13 / Gre  9 / Oth  ?  (Innovative, Apr  4-10, 773)

Con 37 / Lib 33 / NDP 18 / Gre  9 / PPC  2  (Campaign Research, Apr 3-6, 1010)

Con 36 / Lib 39 / NDP 12 / Gre  8 / PPC  3  (Mainstreet Research, Mar 19-26, 1221)

 

Con 36 / Lib 37 / NDP 17 / Gre  8 / PPC  2  (P.J. Fournier's Projections at 338canada.com)

 

QC

 

Con 26 / Lib 28 / BQ 22 / NDP 11 / Gre 10 / PPC  3  (Angus Reid, Apr 26-30, 339) 

Con 26 / Lib 33 / BQ 20 / NDP 14 / Oth  7     (Ipsos, Apr 23-25, 186)

Con 18 / Lib 34 / BQ 24 / NDP  7 / Gre 11 / PPC  2  (Forum, Apr 23-24, 369)

Con 23 / Lib 31 / BQ 23 / NDP  6 / Gre  9 / PPC  4  (Leger, Apr 18-22, 332)

Con 15 / Lib 33 / BQ 17 / NDP 15 / Gre  7 / PPC  1  (Nanos, Mar-Apr 26)

Con 21 / Lib 38 / BQ 18 / NDP  8 / Gre 10 / Oth  5  (Innovative, Apr  4-10, 511)

Con 19 / Lib 35 / BQ 21 / NDP 12 / Gre  8 / PPC  3  (Campaign Research, Apr 3-6, 286)

Con 25 / Lib 40 / BQ 13 / NDP  9 / Gre  7 / PPC  5  (Mainstreet Research, Mar 19-26, 897)

 

Con 23 / Lib 35 / BQ 18 / NDP 12 / Gre  8 / PPC  3  (P.J. Fournier's Projections at 338canada.com)

 

ATL

 

Con 28 / Lib 22 / NDP 24 / Gre 22 / PPC  1  (Angus Reid, Apr 26-30,  85)

Con 41 / Lib 26 / NDP 19 / Oth 14     (Ipsos, Apr 23-25, 60)

Con 36 / Lib 34 / NDP 11 / Gre 11 / PPC  4  (Forum, Apr 23-24, 113)

Con 41 / Lib 33 / NDP 11 / Gre  8 / PPC  5  (Leger, Apr 18-22, 81) 

Con 31 / Lib 46 / NDP 11 / Gre 12 / PPC  1  (Nanos, Mar-Apr 26)

Con 27 / Lib 46 / NDP 11 / Gre 11 / Oth  4  (Innovative, Apr  4-10, 103)

Con 43 / Lib 34 / NDP 15 / Gre  5 / PPC  2  (Campaign Research, Apr 3-6, 85)

Con 34 / Lib 42 / NDP  8 / Gre 13 / PPC  3  (Mainstreet Research, Mar 19-26, 2423)

 

Con 36 / Lib 36 / NDP 13 / Gre 12 / PPC  3  (P.J. Fournier's Projections at 338canada.com)

NorthReport

2 of the last 5 most recent polls, including the most recent poll, shows the Liberals heading towards Disasterville at 13% behind the Conservatives.  What a nightmare situation!

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

2 of the last 5 most recent polls, including the most recent poll, shows the Liberals heading towards Disasterville at 13% behind the Conservatives.  What a nightmare situation!

And the other 3 polls combined have a gap of 14%

NorthReport

The Conservatives have come first in the 26 out of the 27 most recent polls which usually means better quality candidates and a lot more money to finance the election. It's looking pretty freakin' ugly out there for the Liberals.  It this continues Team Trudeau is going to be blown out of the water politically. Thanks a lot Liberals!

NorthReport

I think it's all over but the shoutin' boys and girls. Nothin' gonna turn the good ship Trudeau around, it's too late for that, as the wrong people are aboard. It was obvious when the SNC Scandal shit hit the fan and it has only gotten a whole lot worse since then. Smarter Liberals than the current hangers-on should have insisted on a leadership review/change in leadership, but no, it seems only Wilson-Raybould and Philpott have the principles to know right from wrong. 

Liberals are stuck on Justin Trudeau’s rudderless ship

By Chantal HébertStar Columnist

Fri., May 3, 2019

As prime minister, Justin Trudeau is not one who is usually eclipsed on a Canadian stage — especially on Parliament Hill.

The occasion of Jason Kenney’s return to his former haunts Thursday in his new role as Alberta’s premier was a clear exception.

 

https://www.thestar.com/politics/political-opinion/2019/05/03/liberals-are-stuck-on-justin-trudeaus-rudderless-ship.html

NorthReport

It's about the slopes.

Who has the momentum now, eh!

 

https://twitter.com/janfromthebruce/status/1124316154292424704

NorthReport
WWWTT

NorthReport wrote:

It's about the slopes.

Who has the momentum now, eh!

 

https://twitter.com/janfromthebruce/status/1124316154292424704

The NDP slide appears to be over and the growth is coming. Jag has a lot of work ahead, and racist Canada isn’t going away fast enough so the NDP will be limited in their support at the polls. 

bekayne

New from Campaign Research (Apr 30-May 1, online survey of 1,471)

Con 35 (+1) / Lib 31 (-1) / NDP 17 (+2) / Green 10

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1TbCOi439siAc2Hxab6MISQf4ePvgeCSu/view

bekayne

Nanos is a telephone poll, Forum and Mainstreet are IVR, all the rest are online. Nanos is a sample of 1000 across Canada, no regional breakdowns.

BC

Con 38 / Lib 23 / NDP 24 / Gre 13 / PPC 2   (Campaign Research, Apr 30-May 1, 173)

Con 39 / Lib 19 / NDP 29 / Gre 11 / PPC  3  (Angus Reid, Apr 26-30, 170) 

Con 23 / Lib 42 / NDP 22 / Oth 12     (Ipsos, Apr 23-25, 100)

Con 37 / Lib 21 / NDP 22 / Gre 14 / PPC  4  (Forum, Apr 23-24, 160)

Con 45 / Lib 22 / NDP 16 / Gre 15 / PPC  2  (Leger, Apr 18-22, 122)

Con 27 / Lib 26 / NDP 25 / Gre 22 / PPC  9  (Nanos, Mar-Apr 26)

Con 29 / Lib 30 / NDP 21 / Gre 16 / Oth  4  (Innovative, Apr  4-10, 531)

Con 33 / Lib 27 / NDP 19 / Gre 19 / PPC  2  (Campaign Research, Apr 3-6, 180)

Con 35 / Lib 30 / NDP 18 / Gre 12 / PPC  5  (Mainstreet Research, Mar 19-26, 877)

Con 31 / Lib 31 / NDP 21 / Gre 14 / PPC  3  (P.J. Fournier's Projections at 338canada.com)

AB

Con 53 / Lib 19 / NDP 17 / Gre  7 / PPC  4  (Campaign Research, Apr 30-May 1, 153)

Con 60 / Lib 12 / NDP 24 / Gre  1 / Oth  2  (Angus Reid, Apr 26-30, 147)

Con 63 / Lib 23 / NDP 11 / Oth  3     (Ipsos, Apr 23-25, 86)

Con 66 / Lib 14 / NDP 13 / Gre  3 / Oth  3  (Forum, Apr 23-24, 160)

Con 65 / Lib 14 / NDP  8 / Gre  9 / PPC  4  (Leger, Apr 18-22, 114)

Con 54 / Lib 21 / NDP 13 / Gre  7 / Oth  5  (Innovative, Apr  4-10, 506)

Con 65 / Lib 19 / NDP  9 / Gre  3 / PPC  4  (Mainstreet Research, Mar 19-26, 1119)

Con 59 / Lib 20 / NDP 12 / Gre  5 / PPC  3  (P.J. Fournier's Projections at 338canada.com)

SK/MB

Con 49 / Lib 28 / NDP 12 / Gre  7 / PPC  3  (Campaign Research, Apr 30-May 1, 85)

Con 49 / Lib 14 / NDP 22 / Gre 10 / PPC  6  (Angus Reid, Apr 26-30, 179)       

Con 51 / Lib 27 / NDP 16 / Oth  6     (Ipsos, Apr 23-25, 88)

Con 58 / Lib 26 / NDP  7 / Gre  8 / Oth  1  (Forum, Apr 23-24, 121)

Con 51 / Lib 22 / NDP  9 / Gre 12 / PPC  4  (Leger, Apr 18-22, 98)

Con 59 / Lib 20 / NDP 14 / Gre  5 / PPC  1  (Nanos, Mar-Apr 26, includes Alberta)

Con 40 / Lib 25 / NDP 20 / Gre  5 / Oth 10  (Innovative, Apr  4-10, 103)

Con 52 / Lib 22 / NDP 14 / Gre  7 / PPC  3  (Mainstreet Research, Mar 19-26, 1406)

Con 49 / Lib 25 / NDP 17 / Gre  6 / PPC  3  (P.J. Fournier's Projections at 338canada.com)

ON

Con 33 / Lib 36 / NDP 19 / Gre  9 / PPC  1  (Campaign Research, Apr 30-May 1, 484)

Con 37 / Lib 32 / NDP 14 / Gre 12 / PPC  4  (Angus Reid, Apr 26-30, 417)  

Con 34 / Lib 34 / NDP 25 / Oth  7     (Ipsos, Apr 23-25, 308)

Con 36 / Lib 34 / NDP 17 / Gre  9 / PPC  3  (Forum, Apr 23-24, 595)

Con 39 / Lib 29 / NDP 17 / Gre 12 / PPC  2  (Leger, Apr 18-22, 515)

Con 39 / Lib 37 / NDP 16 / Gre  7 / PPC  0  (Nanos, Mar-Apr 26)

Con 34 / Lib 41 / NDP 13 / Gre  9 / Oth  ?  (Innovative, Apr  4-10, 773)

Con 36 / Lib 39 / NDP 12 / Gre  8 / PPC  3  (Mainstreet Research, Mar 19-26, 1221)

Con 36 / Lib 37 / NDP 17 / Gre  8 / PPC  2  (P.J. Fournier's Projections at 338canada.com)

QC

Con 21 / Lib 36 / BQ 15 / NDP 12 / Gre  11 / PPC  3  (Campaign Research, Apr 30-May 1, 286)

Con 26 / Lib 28 / BQ 22 / NDP 11 / Gre 10 / PPC  3  (Angus Reid, Apr 26-30, 339) 

Con 26 / Lib 33 / BQ 20 / NDP 14 / Oth  7     (Ipsos, Apr 23-25, 186)

Con 18 / Lib 34 / BQ 24 / NDP  7 / Gre 11 / PPC  2  (Forum, Apr 23-24, 369)

Con 23 / Lib 31 / BQ 23 / NDP  6 / Gre  9 / PPC  4  (Leger, Apr 18-22, 332)

Con 15 / Lib 33 / BQ 17 / NDP 15 / Gre  7 / PPC  1  (Nanos, Mar-Apr 26)

Con 21 / Lib 38 / BQ 18 / NDP  8 / Gre 10 / Oth  5  (Innovative, Apr  4-10, 511)

Con 25 / Lib 40 / BQ 13 / NDP  9 / Gre  7 / PPC  5  (Mainstreet Research, Mar 19-26, 897)

Con 23 / Lib 35 / BQ 18 / NDP 12 / Gre  8 / PPC  3  (P.J. Fournier's Projections at 338canada.com)

ATL

Con 35 / Lib 32 / NDP 11 / Gre  17 / PPC  4  (Campaign Research, Apr 30-May 1, 82)

Con 28 / Lib 22 / NDP 24 / Gre 22 / PPC  1  (Angus Reid, Apr 26-30,  85)

Con 41 / Lib 26 / NDP 19 / Oth 14     (Ipsos, Apr 23-25, 60)

Con 36 / Lib 34 / NDP 11 / Gre 11 / PPC  4  (Forum, Apr 23-24, 113)

Con 41 / Lib 33 / NDP 11 / Gre  8 / PPC  5  (Leger, Apr 18-22, 81) 

Con 31 / Lib 46 / NDP 11 / Gre 12 / PPC  1  (Nanos, Mar-Apr 26)

Con 27 / Lib 46 / NDP 11 / Gre 11 / Oth  4  (Innovative, Apr  4-10, 103)

Con 34 / Lib 42 / NDP  8 / Gre 13 / PPC  3  (Mainstreet Research, Mar 19-26, 2423)

Con 36 / Lib 36 / NDP 13 / Gre 12 / PPC  3  (P.J. Fournier's Projections at 338canada.com)

NorthReport

 

 

 

All the signs keep pointing to a disaster for the Liberals come October. 

Voters everywhere are in no mood for the same-old

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-votes-newsletter-issue-4-no-mood-for-same-old-1.5123036

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