The headline is ridiculous and these are the important numbers:
One way to measure this is to ask respondents how likely it is that they would switch their vote preference before voting in the October election. Overall, we find that 41% of respondents say they are either very (8%) or somewhat likely (33%) to be persuaded to support a different party than the one they currently intend to vote for. And a substantial portion of supporters of all parties says they could be persuaded to switch support – including half of current Green and supporters, 42% of Liberal supporters, and one in three Conservative supporters.
In other words other than bases most people have no clue who they will vote for in October. The poor numbers for the Liberals are to chastise the Liberal government/Trudeau. Recall that people are choosing between what's available so it doesn't mean they actively support the person or party they vote for. Poor numbers for the NDP are due to not being familiar with the party under Singh.
TheNDP in particular stands to gain a lot once their platform is out given that inequality is a major concern to a majority of Canadians.
Every single poll of the 10 most recent polls show the Liberals trailing the Conservatives which averages out to 5.3% per poll.
The 11th to the 20th most recent polls show the Liberals trailing the Conservatives by an average of 4.29% per poll.
The 21st to the 30th most recent polls show the Liberals training the Conservatives by an average of 3.6% per poll.
As well 29 of the 30 most recent polls shows the Liberals trailing the Conservatives.
In other words, not only are the Liberals trailing the Conservatives in almost every single poll, the Liberals are falling further and further behind the Conservatives with each new groupings of the polls.
Devasting news for the Liberals, as it is going from bad to worse for Team Trudeau, and we are now only just over 5 months away from E-Day.
Every single poll of the 10 most recent polls show the Liberals trailing the Conservatives which averages out to 5.3% per poll.
The 11th to the 20th most recent polls show the Liberals trailing the Conservatives by an average of 4.29% per poll.
The 21st to the 30th most recent polls show the Liberals training the Conservatives by an average of 3.6% per poll.
As well 29 of the 30 most recent polls shows the Liberals trailing the Conservatives.
In other words, not only are the Liberals trailing the Conservatives in almost every single poll, the Liberals are falling further and further behind the Conservatives with each new groupings of the polls.
Devasting news for the Liberals, as it is going from bad to worse for Team Trudeau, and we are now only just over 5 months away from E-Day.
What is the subtext to your post, NorthReport? Is it joy at the predicted coming Liberal defeat? Or is it joy at the predicted coming Conservative victory? And where is your detailed analysis of the NDP's fortunes?
Actually I was expressing my concern that opposed to much of the usual everything is wonderful in Liberal land talking points that we hear here at babble, support for the Conservatives is increasing against the Liberals in the run-up period to the election, which shows that the Liberal Party is probably not the answer to stopping the Conservatives.
Unfortunally Wood you are so blindsided by your biases you cannot see the forest for the trees, although Conservatives must lap up your nonsense.
quote=R.E.Wood]
NorthReport wrote:
Every single poll of the 10 most recent polls show the Liberals trailing the Conservatives which averages out to 5.3% per poll.
The 11th to the 20th most recent polls show the Liberals trailing the Conservatives by an average of 4.29% per poll.
The 21st to the 30th most recent polls show the Liberals training the Conservatives by an average of 3.6% per poll.
As well 29 of the 30 most recent polls shows the Liberals trailing the Conservatives.
In other words, not only are the Liberals trailing the Conservatives in almost every single poll, the Liberals are falling further and further behind the Conservatives with each new groupings of the polls.
Devasting news for the Liberals, as it is going from bad to worse for Team Trudeau, and we are now only just over 5 months away from E-Day.
What is the subtext to your post, NorthReport? Is it joy at the predicted coming Liberal defeat? Or is it joy at the predicted coming Conservative victory? And where is your detailed analysis of the NDP's fortunes?
Actually I was expressing my concern that opposed to much of the usual everything is wonderful in Liberal land talking points that we hear here at babble, support for the Conservatives is increasing against the Liberals in the run-up period to the election, which shows that the Liberal Party is probably not the answer to stopping the Conservatives.
So what is the answer to stopping the Conservatives, the NDP that are running at just 17% in the polls, or the Greens that are running at just 10% in the polls?
Actually I was expressing my concern that opposed to much of the usual everything is wonderful in Liberal land talking points that we hear here at babble, support for the Conservatives is increasing against the Liberals in the run-up period to the election, which shows that the Liberal Party is probably not the answer to stopping the Conservatives.
So what is the answer to stopping the Conservatives, the NDP that are running at just 17% in the polls, or the Greens that are running at just 10% in the polls?
You present a robust public policy agenda that offers people what they need that they can't get from the Conservatives, make a compelling argument to Conservative voters that you have something to offer them that the Conservative Party does not, and then have your party win more votes than the Conservatives.
Actually I was expressing my concern that opposed to much of the usual everything is wonderful in Liberal land talking points that we hear here at babble, support for the Conservatives is increasing against the Liberals in the run-up period to the election, which shows that the Liberal Party is probably not the answer to stopping the Conservatives.
So what is the answer to stopping the Conservatives, the NDP that are running at just 17% in the polls, or the Greens that are running at just 10% in the polls?
You present a robust public policy agenda that offers people what they need that they can't get from the Conservatives, make a compelling argument to Conservative voters that you have something to offer them that the Conservative Party does not, and then have your party win more votes than the Conservatives.
Very simple.
I think most people who vote Conservative want lower taxes for everyone including the rich, less government spending, smaller government, less immigration into Canada. and they think the climate crisis is not a problem. How can these people who prefer the Conservatives be convinced to vote for the NDP or Greens?
Actually I was expressing my concern that opposed to much of the usual everything is wonderful in Liberal land talking points that we hear here at babble, support for the Conservatives is increasing against the Liberals in the run-up period to the election, which shows that the Liberal Party is probably not the answer to stopping the Conservatives.
Unfortunally Wood you are so blindsided by your biases you cannot see the forest for the trees, although Conservatives must lap up your nonsense.
The polls also clearly show that the NDP, and Jagmeet Singh, are not gaining any significant traction with the public, and are also not the answer (or at least aren't adequately presenting the answers) that Canadians seem to want. But you conveniently ignore that, which was my point. It must be interesting to live in completely impervious disconnect from reality.
Every single poll of the 10 most recent polls show the Liberals trailing the Conservatives which averages out to 5.3% per poll.
The 11th to the 20th most recent polls show the Liberals trailing the Conservatives by an average of 4.29% per poll.
The 21st to the 30th most recent polls show the Liberals training the Conservatives by an average of 3.6% per poll.
As well 29 of the 30 most recent polls shows the Liberals trailing the Conservatives.
In other words, not only are the Liberals trailing the Conservatives in almost every single poll, the Liberals are falling further and further behind the Conservatives with each new groupings of the polls.
Devasting news for the Liberals, as it is going from bad to worse for Team Trudeau, and we are now only just over 5 months away from E-Day.
What is the subtext to your post, NorthReport? Is it joy at the predicted coming Liberal defeat? Or is it joy at the predicted coming Conservative victory? And where is your detailed analysis of the NDP's fortunes?
Actually this thread is about polls (if you don’t believe me scroll to the top of the page) and North Report was commenting on polls!
Actually I was expressing my concern that opposed to much of the usual everything is wonderful in Liberal land talking points that we hear here at babble, support for the Conservatives is increasing against the Liberals in the run-up period to the election, which shows that the Liberal Party is probably not the answer to stopping the Conservatives.
So what is the answer to stopping the Conservatives, the NDP that are running at just 17% in the polls, or the Greens that are running at just 10% in the polls?
I don’t think you will find the answer here on babble? And if someone did actually provide it here on babble now, that poster would probably be scoffed at and ridiculed off this site. No one would ever believe that poster. So why bother asking?
Unfortunately the Liberal ‘I’m King of the Castle’ mentality probably ensures that the Conservatives, with what the polls are showing, will win the election.
Actually I was expressing my concern that opposed to much of the usual everything is wonderful in Liberal land talking points that we hear here at babble, support for the Conservatives is increasing against the Liberals in the run-up period to the election, which shows that the Liberal Party is probably not the answer to stopping the Conservatives.
So what is the answer to stopping the Conservatives, the NDP that are running at just 17% in the polls, or the Greens that are running at just 10% in the polls?
I don’t think you will find the answer here on babble? And if someone did actually provide it here on babble now, that poster would probably be scoffed at and ridiculed off this site. No one would ever believe that poster. So why bother asking?
Because of FPTP, I think this question is unanswerable as FPTP often requires tactical voting to achieve certain objectives. Maybe by October the Greens will be in second place to the Conservatives and voting Green will be the only way for most people to prevent the election of a false FPTP Conservative government? Unfortunately a voting system should most often ensure that people feel comfortable voting for their top choice but FPTP often doesn’t allow for that basic feature of democracy.
Unfortunately the Liberal ‘I’m King of the Castle’ mentality probably ensures that the Conservatives, with what the polls are showing, will win the election.
Trudeau and the Liberal machine are again being underestimated just as they were in 2015. People are predicting as though the election is tomorrow and there will be no platforms or debates. It's difficult to take it seriously when the only factor being taken into account is polls.
People who dread a Conservative government tend to take seriously polls that show the Conservatives winning a false FPTP government. Maybe the should just say the Serenity Prayer?:
“God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
Courage to change the things I can,
And wisdom to know the difference.“
Trudeau and the Liberal machine are again being underestimated just as they were in 2015. People are predicting as though the election is tomorrow and there will be no platforms or debates. It's difficult to take it seriously when the only factor being taken into account is polls.
I agree that some people are jumping to conclusions. I think currently the Conservatives have roughly a 49% chance of forming the next government, the Liberals a 45% chance, and the NDP or Greens have roughly a 3% chance each of forming the next government.
Trudeau and the Liberal machine are again being underestimated just as they were in 2015. People are predicting as though the election is tomorrow and there will be no platforms or debates. It's difficult to take it seriously when the only factor being taken into account is polls.
I agree that some people are jumping to conclusions. I think currently the Conservatives have roughly a 49% chance of forming the next government, the Liberals a 45% chance, and the NDP or Greens have roughly a 3% chance each of forming the next government.
Trudeau and the Liberal machine are again being underestimated just as they were in 2015. People are predicting as though the election is tomorrow and there will be no platforms or debates. It's difficult to take it seriously when the only factor being taken into account is polls.
I agree that some people are jumping to conclusions. I think currently the Conservatives have roughly a 49% chance of forming the next government, the Liberals a 45% chance, and the NDP or Greens have roughly a 3% chance each of forming the next government.
This poll shows the Conservatives have increased their lead over the Liberals by 3%, 30 of the last 31 polls show the Conservatives in the lead, and the Conservatives are growing their lead.
WOW New poll from Nanos and Green Party is only FOUR points behind the NDP!
CPC: 35.4% (+0.9)
LPC: 29.7% (-2.1)
NDP: 15% (-0.9)
GPC: 11.3% (+2.6)
BQ: 4.4% (-0.2)
PPC: 0.9% (-)
Is this the closest the Greens have ever been to the NDP? It appears the Greens have gained a couple points since the B.C by-election. Looks like the Liberals & NDP both lost votes -- some to the Greens & some to the Cons.
This poll shows the Conservatives have increased their lead over the Liberals by 3%, 30 of the last 31 polls show the Conservatives in the lead, and the Conservatives are growing their lead.
And it sounds increasingly as though you are thrilled with that news.
This poll shows the Conservatives have increased their lead over the Liberals by 3%, 30 of the last 31 polls show the Conservatives in the lead, and the Conservatives are growing their lead.
And it sounds increasingly as though you are thrilled with that news.
Those numbers are all incredibly positive for the Greens and foreboding for the NDP: Singh trails May 3.5% as "Preferred Prime Minister", and by 10% on the issue of who has the "qualities of a good political leader". The Greens are only 2.5% behind the NDP for "Accessible Voters" nationwide (!), 0.9% behind the NDP in the "Party Power Index", and - of course - now only 3.7% behind the NDP in overall popular support. The NDP HQ & Singh must be shaking in their boots right now.
Those numbers are all incredibly positive for the Greens and foreboding for the NDP: Singh trails May 3.5% as "Preferred Prime Minister", and by 10% on the issue of who has the "qualities of a good political leader". The Greens are only 2.5% behind the NDP for "Accessible Voters" nationwide (!), 0.9% behind the NDP in the "Party Power Index", and - of course - now only 3.7% behind the NDP in overall popular support. The NDP HQ & Singh must be shaking in their boots right now.
"Shaking in their boots" means that Singh and the NDP understand these trends and are quite worried. I don't think that is the case, and I don't think they perceive the problem. Remember, these are the same people who were clapping, cheering, and smiling on national TV as the federal NDp was experiencing the worst ever loss of seats in its history.
For as long as I can remember the NDP seems to have hovered between 13 - 21% in the polls although during the Reform Party / Canadian Alliance era in the 90’s and early 2000’s the NDP’s numbers were driven down before the right-wing merger that created the Conservative Party in 2003. Currently the Greens seem to be eating a bit into the NDP’s numbers. I think very few polls, if any, over the last 58 years have put the NDP clearly into FPTP false “majority” territory.
https://www.hilltimes.com/2019/05/06/with-the-clock-ticking-and-ticking-fast-to-the-election-liberal-support-headed-in-the-wrong-direction-at-the-wrong-time-say-veteran-political-analysts/198759
New Nanos is same as the old Nanos for the top 3 (Con 35 / Lib 32 / NDP 16), but the Greens are up 1% to 10%.
New Abacus poll:
Con 34 / Lib 31 / NDP 17 / Green 9 / BQ 4 / PPC 3
https://abacusdata.ca/conservatives-lead-as-2015-liberal-coalition-splinters/
The headline is ridiculous and these are the important numbers:
In other words other than bases most people have no clue who they will vote for in October. The poor numbers for the Liberals are to chastise the Liberal government/Trudeau. Recall that people are choosing between what's available so it doesn't mean they actively support the person or party they vote for. Poor numbers for the NDP are due to not being familiar with the party under Singh.
TheNDP in particular stands to gain a lot once their platform is out given that inequality is a major concern to a majority of Canadians.
Nanos is a telephone poll, Forum and Mainstreet are IVR, all the rest are online. Nanos is a sample of 1000 across Canada, no regional breakdowns.
BC
Con 38 / Lib 23 / NDP 24 / Gre 13 / PPC 2 (Campaign Research, Apr 30-May 1, 173)
Con 39 / Lib 19 / NDP 29 / Gre 11 / PPC 3 (Angus Reid, Apr 26-30, 170)
Con 28 / Lib 32 / NDP 23 / Gre 13 / PPC 2 (Abacus, Apr 23-30, 379)
Con 23 / Lib 42 / NDP 22 / Oth 12 (Ipsos, Apr 23-25, 100)
Con 37 / Lib 21 / NDP 22 / Gre 14 / PPC 4 (Forum, Apr 23-24, 160)
Con 45 / Lib 22 / NDP 16 / Gre 15 / PPC 2 (Leger, Apr 18-22, 122)
Con 30 / Lib 22 / NDP 25 / Gre 21 / PPC 1 (Nanos, Apr-May 3)
Con 29 / Lib 30 / NDP 21 / Gre 16 / Oth 4 (Innovative, Apr 4-10, 531)
Con 35 / Lib 30 / NDP 18 / Gre 12 / PPC 5 (Mainstreet Research, Mar 19-26, 877)
Con 34 / Lib 28 / NDP 22 / Gre 14 / PPC 2 (P.J. Fournier's Projections at 338canada.com)
AB
Con 53 / Lib 19 / NDP 17 / Gre 7 / PPC 4 (Campaign Research, Apr 30-May 1, 153)
Con 60 / Lib 12 / NDP 24 / Gre 1 / Oth 2 (Angus Reid, Apr 26-30, 147)
Con 59 / Lib 15 / NDP 14 / Gre 6 / PPC 4 (Abacus, Apr 23-30, 253)
Con 63 / Lib 23 / NDP 11 / Oth 3 (Ipsos, Apr 23-25, 86)
Con 66 / Lib 14 / NDP 13 / Gre 3 / Oth 3 (Forum, Apr 23-24, 160)
Con 65 / Lib 14 / NDP 8 / Gre 9 / PPC 4 (Leger, Apr 18-22, 114)
Con 54 / Lib 21 / NDP 13 / Gre 7 / Oth 5 (Innovative, Apr 4-10, 506)
Con 65 / Lib 19 / NDP 9 / Gre 3 / PPC 4 (Mainstreet Research, Mar 19-26, 1119)
Con 62 / Lib 17 / NDP 14 / Gre 4 / PPC 3 (P.J. Fournier's Projections at 338canada.com)
SK/MB
Con 49 / Lib 28 / NDP 12 / Gre 7 / PPC 3 (Campaign Research, Apr 30-May 1, 85)
Con 49 / Lib 14 / NDP 22 / Gre 10 / PPC 6 (Angus Reid, Apr 26-30, 179)
Con 45 / Lib 24 / NDP 19 / Gre 7 / PPC 3 (Abacus, Apr 23-30, 179)
Con 51 / Lib 27 / NDP 16 / Oth 6 (Ipsos, Apr 23-25, 88)
Con 58 / Lib 26 / NDP 7 / Gre 8 / Oth 1 (Forum, Apr 23-24, 121)
Con 51 / Lib 22 / NDP 9 / Gre 12 / PPC 4 (Leger, Apr 18-22, 98)
Con 61 / Lib 19 / NDP 12 / Gre 6 / PPC 2 (Nanos, Apr-May 3, includes Alberta)
Con 40 / Lib 25 / NDP 20 / Gre 5 / Oth 10 (Innovative, Apr 4-10, 103)
Con 52 / Lib 22 / NDP 14 / Gre 7 / PPC 3 (Mainstreet Research, Mar 19-26, 1406)
Con 49 / Lib 23 / NDP 16 / Gre 8 / PPC 3 (P.J. Fournier's Projections at 338canada.com)
ON
Con 33 / Lib 36 / NDP 19 / Gre 9 / PPC 1 (Campaign Research, Apr 30-May 1, 484)
Con 37 / Lib 32 / NDP 14 / Gre 12 / PPC 4 (Angus Reid, Apr 26-30, 417)
Con 36 / Lib 34 / NDP 20 / Gre 8 / PPC 2 (Abacus, Apr 23-30, 1129)
Con 34 / Lib 34 / NDP 25 / Oth 7 (Ipsos, Apr 23-25, 308)
Con 36 / Lib 34 / NDP 17 / Gre 9 / PPC 3 (Forum, Apr 23-24, 595)
Con 39 / Lib 29 / NDP 17 / Gre 12 / PPC 2 (Leger, Apr 18-22, 515)
Con 37 / Lib 36 / NDP 18 / Gre 8 / PPC 0 (Nanos, Apr-May 3)
Con 34 / Lib 41 / NDP 13 / Gre 9 / Oth ? (Innovative, Apr 4-10, 773)
Con 36 / Lib 39 / NDP 12 / Gre 8 / PPC 3 (Mainstreet Research, Mar 19-26, 1221)
Con 36 / Lib 34 / NDP 17 / Gre 10 / PPC 2 (P.J. Fournier's Projections at 338canada.com)
QC
Con 21 / Lib 36 / BQ 15 / NDP 12 / Gre 11 / PPC 3 (Campaign Research, Apr 30-May 1, 286)
Con 26 / Lib 28 / BQ 22 / NDP 11 / Gre 10 / PPC 3 (Angus Reid, Apr 26-30, 339)
Con 21 / Lib 35 / BQ 18 / NDP 11 / Gre 10 / PPC 4 (Abacus, Apr 23-30, 1070)
Con 26 / Lib 33 / BQ 20 / NDP 14 / Oth 7 (Ipsos, Apr 23-25, 186)
Con 18 / Lib 34 / BQ 24 / NDP 7 / Gre 11 / PPC 2 (Forum, Apr 23-24, 369)
Con 23 / Lib 31 / BQ 23 / NDP 6 / Gre 9 / PPC 4 (Leger, Apr 18-22, 332)
Con 14 / Lib 37 / BQ 19 / NDP 14 / Gre 7 / PPC 0 (Nanos, Apr-May 3)
Con 21 / Lib 38 / BQ 18 / NDP 8 / Gre 10 / Oth 5 (Innovative, Apr 4-10, 511)
Con 25 / Lib 40 / BQ 13 / NDP 9 / Gre 7 / PPC 5 (Mainstreet Research, Mar 19-26, 897)
Con 24 / Lib 32 / BQ 21 / NDP 11 / Gre 9 / PPC 3 (P.J. Fournier's Projections at 338canada.com)
ATL
Con 35 / Lib 32 / NDP 11 / Gre 17 / PPC 4 (Campaign Research, Apr 30-May 1, 82)
Con 28 / Lib 22 / NDP 24 / Gre 22 / PPC 1 (Angus Reid, Apr 26-30, 85)
Con 30 / Lib 35 / NDP 17 / Gre 12 / PPC 5 (Abacus, Apr 23-30, 210)
Con 41 / Lib 26 / NDP 19 / Oth 14 (Ipsos, Apr 23-25, 60)
Con 36 / Lib 34 / NDP 11 / Gre 11 / PPC 4 (Forum, Apr 23-24, 113)
Con 41 / Lib 33 / NDP 11 / Gre 8 / PPC 5 (Leger, Apr 18-22, 81)
Con 27 / Lib 46 / NDP 10 / Gre 15 / PPC 1 (Nanos, Apr-May 3)
Con 27 / Lib 46 / NDP 11 / Gre 11 / Oth 4 (Innovative, Apr 4-10, 103)
Con 34 / Lib 42 / NDP 8 / Gre 13 / PPC 3 (Mainstreet Research, Mar 19-26, 2423)
Con 35 / Lib 32 / NDP 16 / Gre 14 / PPC 3 (P.J. Fournier's Projections at 338canada.com)
Every single poll of the 10 most recent polls show the Liberals trailing the Conservatives which averages out to 5.3% per poll.
The 11th to the 20th most recent polls show the Liberals trailing the Conservatives by an average of 4.29% per poll.
The 21st to the 30th most recent polls show the Liberals training the Conservatives by an average of 3.6% per poll.
As well 29 of the 30 most recent polls shows the Liberals trailing the Conservatives.
In other words, not only are the Liberals trailing the Conservatives in almost every single poll, the Liberals are falling further and further behind the Conservatives with each new groupings of the polls.
Devasting news for the Liberals, as it is going from bad to worse for Team Trudeau, and we are now only just over 5 months away from E-Day.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_2019_Canadian_federal_election#Pre-campaign_period
What is the subtext to your post, NorthReport? Is it joy at the predicted coming Liberal defeat? Or is it joy at the predicted coming Conservative victory? And where is your detailed analysis of the NDP's fortunes?
Actually I was expressing my concern that opposed to much of the usual everything is wonderful in Liberal land talking points that we hear here at babble, support for the Conservatives is increasing against the Liberals in the run-up period to the election, which shows that the Liberal Party is probably not the answer to stopping the Conservatives.
Unfortunally Wood you are so blindsided by your biases you cannot see the forest for the trees, although Conservatives must lap up your nonsense.
quote=R.E.Wood]
What is the subtext to your post, NorthReport? Is it joy at the predicted coming Liberal defeat? Or is it joy at the predicted coming Conservative victory? And where is your detailed analysis of the NDP's fortunes?
[/quote]
So what is the answer to stopping the Conservatives, the NDP that are running at just 17% in the polls, or the Greens that are running at just 10% in the polls?
You present a robust public policy agenda that offers people what they need that they can't get from the Conservatives, make a compelling argument to Conservative voters that you have something to offer them that the Conservative Party does not, and then have your party win more votes than the Conservatives.
Very simple.
I think most people who vote Conservative want lower taxes for everyone including the rich, less government spending, smaller government, less immigration into Canada. and they think the climate crisis is not a problem. How can these people who prefer the Conservatives be convinced to vote for the NDP or Greens?
The polls also clearly show that the NDP, and Jagmeet Singh, are not gaining any significant traction with the public, and are also not the answer (or at least aren't adequately presenting the answers) that Canadians seem to want. But you conveniently ignore that, which was my point. It must be interesting to live in completely impervious disconnect from reality.
Seat Projections
(170 seats required for majority government)
Cons - 163.3 seats
Libs - 124.2 seats
NDP - 30.5 seats
BQ - 13.6 seats
Grns - 5.6 seats
PPC - 0.9 seat
https://blog.338canada.com/2019/05/338-federal-projection-update-may-12th.html
Odds of winning the most seats:
Cons - 75.5%
Libs - 24%
https://blog.338canada.com/2019/05/338-federal-projection-update-may-12th.html
So what appears to be the answer to your question: “what is the answer to stopping the Conservatives?”
Well I guess we will see what's what when the election is held tomorrow.
Tomorrow’s election in the Philippines will let us us see what’s what?!?!?
Duterte is more popular than ever but do Canadians have a clue why? I doubt it.
Duterte's Popularity Hits Highest Ahead of Midterm Elections
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-11/duterte-s-popularity-back-to-highest-ahead-of-midterm-elections
It must be close to election time, as Liberals are calling themselves left.
How much should Scheer’s Conservatives be counting on vote-splitting on the centre left?
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-how-much-should-scheers-conservatives-be-counting-on-vote-splitting/
It isn't the Liberals calling themselves left it is the Conservatives and the NDP.
Actually this thread is about polls (if you don’t believe me scroll to the top of the page) and North Report was commenting on polls!
What do you want posters to do?
I don’t think you will find the answer here on babble? And if someone did actually provide it here on babble now, that poster would probably be scoffed at and ridiculed off this site. No one would ever believe that poster. So why bother asking?
Unfortunately the Liberal ‘I’m King of the Castle’ mentality probably ensures that the Conservatives, with what the polls are showing, will win the election.
Because of FPTP, I think this question is unanswerable as FPTP often requires tactical voting to achieve certain objectives. Maybe by October the Greens will be in second place to the Conservatives and voting Green will be the only way for most people to prevent the election of a false FPTP Conservative government? Unfortunately a voting system should most often ensure that people feel comfortable voting for their top choice but FPTP often doesn’t allow for that basic feature of democracy.
What should the Liberals do?
So I guess day after tomorrow we will be looking at PM Scheer.
In our dreams/nightmares?
There’s also that old saying, “If you fail to prepare, you’re planning to fail.”
Trudeau and the Liberal machine are again being underestimated just as they were in 2015. People are predicting as though the election is tomorrow and there will be no platforms or debates. It's difficult to take it seriously when the only factor being taken into account is polls.
People who dread a Conservative government tend to take seriously polls that show the Conservatives winning a false FPTP government. Maybe the should just say the Serenity Prayer?:
“God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change,
Courage to change the things I can,
And wisdom to know the difference.“
I agree that some people are jumping to conclusions. I think currently the Conservatives have roughly a 49% chance of forming the next government, the Liberals a 45% chance, and the NDP or Greens have roughly a 3% chance each of forming the next government.
Based on which factors?
My intuition from watching elections.
Really?
What a surprise!
Liberals likely to hemorrhage significant chunk of 32 seats in Atlantic Canada next election
https://www.hilltimes.com/2019/05/13/liberals-likely-to-hemorrhage-significant-chunk-of-32-seats-in-atlantic-region-in-october-say-political-insiders/199590
WOW New poll from Nanos and Green Party is only FOUR points behind the NDP!
CPC: 35.4% (+0.9)
LPC: 29.7% (-2.1)
NDP: 15% (-0.9)
GPC: 11.3% (+2.6)
BQ: 4.4% (-0.2)
PPC: 0.9% (-)
Let's keep our eye on the game here.
This poll shows the Conservatives have increased their lead over the Liberals by 3%, 30 of the last 31 polls show the Conservatives in the lead, and the Conservatives are growing their lead.
Is this the closest the Greens have ever been to the NDP? It appears the Greens have gained a couple points since the B.C by-election. Looks like the Liberals & NDP both lost votes -- some to the Greens & some to the Cons.
And it sounds increasingly as though you are thrilled with that news.
As usual Ken you are a broken record!
I have to agree with Ken. You do seem gleeful over the news NR.
http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Political-Package-2019-05-10-FR.pdf
Those numbers are all incredibly positive for the Greens and foreboding for the NDP: Singh trails May 3.5% as "Preferred Prime Minister", and by 10% on the issue of who has the "qualities of a good political leader". The Greens are only 2.5% behind the NDP for "Accessible Voters" nationwide (!), 0.9% behind the NDP in the "Party Power Index", and - of course - now only 3.7% behind the NDP in overall popular support. The NDP HQ & Singh must be shaking in their boots right now.
"Shaking in their boots" means that Singh and the NDP understand these trends and are quite worried. I don't think that is the case, and I don't think they perceive the problem. Remember, these are the same people who were clapping, cheering, and smiling on national TV as the federal NDp was experiencing the worst ever loss of seats in its history.
The NDP received 19.7% support in the 2015 election.
Opinion polling for the 2015 Canadian federal election
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_Canadian_federal_election
And the NDP received 30.6% support in the 2011 election.
All parties go through phases of ups and downs.
The NDP received 18% support in the 2008 election
Who would have ever thought Andrew Scheer would be leading Justin Trudeau in the Leadership Polls, eh!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_2019_Canadian_federal_election
For as long as I can remember the NDP seems to have hovered between 13 - 21% in the polls although during the Reform Party / Canadian Alliance era in the 90’s and early 2000’s the NDP’s numbers were driven down before the right-wing merger that created the Conservative Party in 2003. Currently the Greens seem to be eating a bit into the NDP’s numbers. I think very few polls, if any, over the last 58 years have put the NDP clearly into FPTP false “majority” territory.
As I said all parties go through ups and downs
Look at the BQ
Tomorrow's Nanos:
Con 36% (+1) // Lib 31% (+1) // NDP 14% (-1) // Green 11% // BQ 4% // PPC 1%
Greens now only 3 points behind NDP. Will be interesting to see whether they can maintain their momentum:
https://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2019/05/21/conservatives-36-liberals-31-ndp-14-green-11-peoples-1-i/
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