Another Polling Threhad

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Ippurigakko

Yeah Ontarian read many news robocalls they piss off at cons and move to NDP for Nycole interim NDP leader.

NorthReport

That was not cherry-picking, that was just the most recent poll released at that time.

Debater wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

Abacus Poll:

 

Cons - 37%

NDP - 28% (solidly in 2nd place without a permanet leader)

Libs - 20% (dead last)

 

Also the Libs are in 4th or dead last place in Quebec.

 

http://www.lfpress.com/news/canada/2012/03/16/19511416.html

Maybe they are and maybe they aren't.  It's not valuable to cherry-pick polls.  

The Liberals are higher in most of the other Québec polls, such as last week's Léger poll.  And afterall, didn't you yourself say that we should give the Québec pollsters more credibility since they are more knowledgable about how to survey Québec? Smile

NorthReport

Last election:

C - 39.6%

N - 30.6%%

L - 18.9%

 

Ekos today:

C - 34.4%

N - 29.7% - within 4.7% of 1st place

L - 19.6% - last and dropping for the third consecutive poll

 

Abacus Mar 16:

C - 37%

N - 28%

L - 20%

 

Global - Mar 12:

C - 37%

N - 29%

L - 23%

Life, the unive...

Debater wrote:

But if the NDP remains high in Ontario, doesn't that help the Conservatives?

Many would say it's a bad thing for the NDP to do well in Ontario (as in the last election) because it shifts Liberal seats to the Conservatives and helps them win majorities.  2011 is an example of that.  This is the dilemma that the NDP and Liberals face.

We have a name for people that believe such things in the face of all reality.  They are called Liberals.  In the overwhelming number of seats in Ontario held by the Conservatives it is now the NDP who are best placed to defeat them.  Welcome to the dawn of a new era.

mmphosis

Last election (cbc.ca)
¤ 39.62% CPC
¤ 30.62% NDP
¤ 18.91% LPC
¤ 6.05% BQ
¤ 3.91% Green
¤ 0.43% ind

ekos PDF

¤ 35.4% CPC
¤ 29.7% NDP
¤ 19.6% LPC
¤ 8.1% Green
¤ 5.8% BQ
¤ 1.4% other

abacus JPEG

¤ 37% CPC
¤ 28% NDP
¤ 20% LPC
¤ 8% BQ
¤ 7% Green

IPSOS global?

polling data not available

mmphosis

I always like to add the percentages of the NDP, Bloc and Green.  It puts the Left-Green Bloc in majority territory. ;)

Ippurigakko

Here my project: Last election VS Current

Last election - Cons / NDP / LIB / GRN / IND

BC        - 45.5% / 32.5% / 13.4% / 7.7% / 0.2%
Alberta  - 66.8% / 16.8% / 13.4% / 5.3% / 1.3%
Prairies - 54.9% / 30%    / 12.8% / 3.2% / 0.2%
Ontario - 44.4% / 25.6% / 25.3% / 3.8% / 0.2%
Quebec - 16.5% / 42.9% / 14.2% / 2.1% / 0.6% / 23.4% (BQ)
Altantic - 37.9% / 29.6% / 29.3% / 3.0% / 0.2%
Terri     - 36.4% / 27.7% / 26.4% / 9.3% / 0.2%

Current (Ekos):

BC        - 35.3% / 33.2% / 16.3% / 14.3% / 0.9%
Alberta  - 61.2% / 18.6% / 10.6% / 5.3% /  4.3%
Prairies - 45.9% / 39.2% / 12.1% / 2.7% / 0.0%
Ontario - 34.6% / 31.0% / 26.3% / 7.4% / 0.7%
Quebec - 22.9% / 30.6% / 15.1% / 6.0% / 0.9% / 24.5% (BQ)
Altantic - 31.9% / 22.9% / 26.1% / 15.0% / 4.1%
Terri     - not include opinion polls

 

flight from kamakura

and that's WITHOUT a leader, mind.

madmax

Debater wrote:

But if the NDP remains high in Ontario, doesn't that help the Conservatives?

Many would say it's a bad thing for the NDP to do well in Ontario (as in the last election) because it shifts Liberal seats to the Conservatives and helps them win majorities.  2011 is an example of that.  This is the dilemma that the NDP and Liberals face.

with numbers like that..it looks like the NDP is going to gain seats in Ontario..

adma

And besides, thanks to the most recent blowout, there are scarcely any Liberal seats remaining in Ontario that are "shiftable" to the Conservatives.

Look at it this way: the way things shape up according to Ekos, it's more likely that a Con seat like Scarborough Centre will go NDP than a Grit seat like *harrumph* Guelph will go Conservative...

JKR

It's sad that a centre-left country is being ruled by a "my way or the highway" right-wing phony FPTP majority government.

Political Ideology
Liberal: 40%
Conservative: 30%
Neither: 26%

 

Political Ideology

Voter Intention: CPC
Conservative: 72.0%  
Neither:  14.9
Liberal: 11.4

Voter Intention: NDP
Liberal: 60.6%
Neither: 28.9
Conservative: 7.6

Voter Intention: LPC
Liberal: 72.0%
Neither: 18.9
Conservative: 8.5

Voter Intention: BQ
Liberal: 55.5%
Neither: 36.0
Conservative: 7.7

 

Ideology: Conservative
CPC: 72.0% 
LPC: 8.5
BQ: 7.7
NDP: 7.6

Ideology: Liberal
LPC: 72.0%
NDP: 60.6
BQ: 55.5
CPC: 11.4

Ideoplogy: Neither
BQ: 36.0%
NDP: 28.9
LPC: 18.9 
CPC: 14.9

 

According to these numbers, a straight two-way race between the right and left distinctly favours the left.

The Conservatives are lucky that the centre-left vote is split.

The Conservatives have done a great job consolidating the Conservative vote.

Ippurigakko

 I see BQ closely related to NDP. Thats reason they move to NPD rather than vote BQ.

janfromthebruce

I also don't agree with the term "split" because it connotates equal distribution, but by looking at the percentages, it would show something with a strong leaning towards a left centre axis.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Zach Paikin, in the Huffington Post, described as a "Liberal Party Activist":

"There is a deeper reason behind why Liberals should oppose a merger with the NDP: The NDP isn't a progressive party.

The word "progressive," for some reason, has earned the connotation of "left-wing" over the years. In reality, however, the word literally means "moving forward," as opposed to conservatives who seek to conserve the status quo (or worse -- return to the past).

Liberals must recognize that the NDP is in fact a conservative party. It is a party that wishes to conserve our current incarnations of public health care, welfare, and pensions without offering any tangible solutions to the upcoming demographic crisis. It is a party that wishes to maintain Canada's "traditional" international role as a peacekeeper, despite the fact that such a tactic is unlikely to function in the non-bipolar world that has been created following the demise of the Soviet Union.

And just like the Conservative party, the NDP appeals to the politics of fear in order to win votes -- fear of Stephen Harper. The Liberal party tried just that in the 2011 election and it didn't work. The Liberals' primary message during the writ was one rebuking the Conservatives for their undemocratic practices, not one offering a compelling vision for the future of the country. Never engage your enemy on the battlefield of his choice."

Give me a break! The NDP is a conservative party, paleasse! Oh that 's ok, ignore the Martin Budgets, our going back on the GST, our military involvement in American military adventurism, and worst of all, "the NDP appeals to the politics of fear", excuse me, were you actually paying attention during the election Zachster? Never mind this discussion about "splitting the left". Can anyone read what this guy wrote and honestly say he is espousing things with which the NDP agrees? And the old demagraphics we have to do something trick? Really?

What a bunch of garbage. No wonder they're running third. These guys are dellusional!

Policywonk

madmax wrote:
Debater wrote:

But if the NDP remains high in Ontario, doesn't that help the Conservatives?

Many would say it's a bad thing for the NDP to do well in Ontario (as in the last election) because it shifts Liberal seats to the Conservatives and helps them win majorities.  2011 is an example of that.  This is the dilemma that the NDP and Liberals face.

with numbers like that..it looks like the NDP is going to gain seats in Ontario..

One could just as easily say with the Liberals still so high that allows Conservatives to win seats that could go NDP, however  numbers like that would give the NDP significant gains in Ontario given how low the Conservatives are and where the votes are likely to be concentrated (mostly urban and northern Ontario for the NDP).

Debater

Life, the universe, everything wrote:

Debater wrote:

But if the NDP remains high in Ontario, doesn't that help the Conservatives?

Many would say it's a bad thing for the NDP to do well in Ontario (as in the last election) because it shifts Liberal seats to the Conservatives and helps them win majorities.  2011 is an example of that.  This is the dilemma that the NDP and Liberals face.

We have a name for people that believe such things in the face of all reality.  They are called Liberals.  In the overwhelming number of seats in Ontario held by the Conservatives it is now the NDP who are best placed to defeat them.  Welcome to the dawn of a new era.

I don't see any evidence of that at all.  I'm not sure where you are coming up with those figures.  The large majority of seats in Ontario are Liberal-Conservative races.

Look at the recent Provincial election as another example.  Except in Northern Ontario, Hamilton and a few areas in Toronto, the NDP is largely absent from most of the province.  The NDP did not pick up a single seat from the Ontario Conservatives - all 7 gains came from the Liberals.

And did the NDP take one seat from the Conservatives in Ontario in the last federal election?  I don't remember one.  In fact, I think the NDP lost a seat to the Conservatives, in Sault. Ste. Marie.

Ippurigakko

last ontario Provincial election, Liberal down 53 from 72!

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Debater. lets assume for just a sec you are right. So what? The fact of the matter is the NDP's numbers are on the rise in Ontario, t the point where the New Dems would make significant gains. Really, in terms of support, nothing much has changed, and your Libs are still the official 3rd party of Canadian politics. If you guys really want to do the right thing then it is time to stop thinking about yourselves, anf for the good of Canadians and Canada, vote NDP (where have we heard that kind of logic before I wonder?).

Spin this any way you want, the NDP is the real second party of Canadian politics now and going forward. Your comments are transparently self serving. So, you keep arguing as you do. It doesn't matter.

I say again, ultimately the NDP will decide its own fate, and that you Libs simply are completely irrelevant to the new reality of Canadian politics. If you guys come back, it'll be because the New Dems blow it. It doesn't matter what you guys do, you Libs are irrelevant. This still remains the NDP's to lose, not the Libs to win.

Fuss and bluster all you want, it doesn't matter what you Libs think or argue. The outcome is solely dependant on what the New Dems do going forward. Period!

Debater

What is the point?  Most governments lose support eventually.  McGuinty wasn't even expected to win a 3rd term, let alone come within one seat of a 3rd majority.  He's now one of the most successful Ontario Premiers of the last century.

The point is, Ontario remains predominantly Liberal & Conservative.

Incidentally, the EKOS poll shows that the Liberals are the only party (other than the Greens) that has gone up since the last federal election, while the Conservatives and NDP have declined.  I notice no one above mentioned that.

Nevertheless, the improvement for the Liberals in most polls (except Nanos) has been marginal.  The current Liberal numbers are too low for Bob Rae to stay on as leader.  Unless he is able to raise the party higher and move it into a solid position above the NDP, the positive thing about these poll numbers is that those of us who want to replace him with someone fresher now have more ammunition to do so. Wink

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Debater wrote:

Life, the universe, everything wrote:

Debater wrote:

But if the NDP remains high in Ontario, doesn't that help the Conservatives?

Many would say it's a bad thing for the NDP to do well in Ontario (as in the last election) because it shifts Liberal seats to the Conservatives and helps them win majorities.  2011 is an example of that.  This is the dilemma that the NDP and Liberals face.

We have a name for people that believe such things in the face of all reality.  They are called Liberals.  In the overwhelming number of seats in Ontario held by the Conservatives it is now the NDP who are best placed to defeat them.  Welcome to the dawn of a new era.

I don't see any evidence of that at all.  I'm not sure where you are coming up with those figures.  The large majority of seats in Ontario are Liberal-Conservative races.

Look at the recent Provincial election as another example.  Except in Northern Ontario, Hamilton and a few areas in Toronto, the NDP is largely absent from most of the province.  The NDP did not pick up a single seat from the Ontario Conservatives - all 7 gains came from the Liberals.

And did the NDP take one seat from the Conservatives in Ontario in the last federal election?  I don't remember one.  In fact, I think the NDP lost a seat to the Conservatives, in Sault. Ste. Marie.

In 2011, the Liberals had a leader who, on paper, SHOULD have been exactly the sort that would hold and bring back "blue Liberal" votes...a pro-war, pro-austerity torture freak who once wrote an article in HARPER's calling for the return of imperialism.  And you blame the NDP for his troubles?

Debater

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Debater. lets assume for just a sec you are right. So what? The fact of the matter is the NDP's numbers are on the rise in Ontario, t the point where the New Dems would make significant gains. Really, in terms of support, nothing much has changed, and your Libs are still the official 3rd party of Canadian politics. If you guys really want to do the right thing then it is time to stop thinking about yourselves, anf for the good of Canadians and Canada, vote NDP (where have we heard that kind of logic before I wonder?).

Spin this any way you want, the NDP is the real second party of Canadian politics now and going forward. Your comments are transparently self serving. So, you keep arguing as you do. It doesn't matter.

I say again, ultimately the NDP will decide its own fate, and that you Libs simply are completely irrelevant to the new reality of Canadian politics. If you guys come back, it'll be because the New Dems blow it. It doesn't matter what you guys do, you Libs are irrelevant. This still remains the NDP's to lose, not the Libs to win.

Fuss and bluster all you want, it doesn't matter what you Libs think or argue. The outcome is solely dependant on what the New Dems do going forward. Period!

What is wrong with being a 3rd party?  The NDP was a 3rd party (and as low as a 4th & 5th party) for 50 years.  Don't you think it sounds arrogant when you say that another party is irrelevant and doesn't matter, particularly considering the NDP's own past history (& possible future) as a 3rd party?

I do however agree with you to some extent that because the Liberals have dropped to 3rd, they do not control their own political destiny to the extent they once did.  When you are in 2nd as the NDP now is, it does give you a more powerful argument to make and a greater ability to control the terms of debate.  So to a certain extent you are correct that it may be the NDP's to lose.  But I would suggest more humility and less arrogance in the way you state this, otherwise you will end up sounding the way the old Liberal Party did.

Incidentally, some above seem to assume that the NDP will go up in the polls when a new NDP leader takes over.  That could happen, but there is no guarantee of that.  The new NDP leader can only increase support if he makes the right decisions and comes across as someone who can connect with the people.  If not, those voters who have been parking their votes with the NDP could end up leaving again, and the NDP could actually go down after the new NDP leader takes over.

bekayne

adma wrote:

And besides, thanks to the most recent blowout, there are scarcely any Liberal seats remaining in Ontario that are "shiftable" to the Conservatives.

Markham-Unionville, St. Paul's, Ottawa South for starters

bekayne

Stockholm wrote:

Here is the latest Ekos pdf that has the Tories at 35% and the NDP at 30%

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_march_16_2012...

I have news for ou debater - if this poll is right and Tory support in ontario has plummeted 10 points to 34.6% and NDP support is up 5 points since the last election to 31.0% - the Tories WILL lose a ton of Ontario seats to the NDP.

That's a swing of 14.2%. Number of seats the NDP lost to the Conservatives by 14.2% or less-7. If they won every single riding they lost by less than 20% to the Conservatives, they would gain 10 seats.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

If the Liberals wouldn't back the NDP in a coalition in 2011, they would never change their minds on that...so the argument for strategic support of the Liberals in Ontario is STILL discredited.

Also, it's virtually impossible for the Liberals to win MORE seats than the NDP next time, so it's not like a Liberal minority government supported by the NDP will be a possibility for years to come...if ever...and the Paul Martin experience shows that the Liberals aren't willing to do anything to do anything to actually reward the NDP for their support.  They had no excuse for waiting until the fall of 2005 to offer a national childcare plan.

madmax

JKR wrote:

It's sad that a centre-left country is being ruled by a "my way or the highway" right-wing phony FPTP majority government.

Political Ideology
Liberal: 40%
Conservative: 30%
Neither: 26%

 

Political Ideology

Voter Intention: CPC
Conservative: 72.0%  
Neither:  14.9
Liberal: 11.4

Voter Intention: NDP
Liberal: 60.6%
Neither: 28.9
Conservative: 7.6

Voter Intention: LPC
Liberal: 72.0%
Neither: 18.9
Conservative: 8.5

Voter Intention: BQ
Liberal: 55.5%
Neither: 36.0
Conservative: 7.7

 

Ideology: Conservative
CPC: 72.0% 
LPC: 8.5
BQ: 7.7
NDP: 7.6

Ideology: Liberal
LPC: 72.0%
NDP: 60.6
BQ: 55.5
CPC: 11.4

Ideoplogy: Neither
BQ: 36.0%
NDP: 28.9
LPC: 18.9 
CPC: 14.9

 

According to these numbers, a straight two-way race between the right and left distinctly favours the left.

The Conservatives are lucky that the centre-left vote is split.

The Conservatives have done a great job consolidating the Conservative vote.

I don't support the methodology of this kind of poll question.

Its very primitive.. and it creates a false illusion.

People make many many many assumptions on how the public will vote when you remove an option.

madmax

Debater wrote:

Look at the recent Provincial election as another example.  Except in Northern Ontario, Hamilton and a few areas in Toronto, the NDP is largely absent from most of the province.  The NDP did not pick up a single seat from the Ontario Conservatives - all 7 gains came from the Liberals.

The only thing that would make u happy is if the Liberals didn't lose any seats...
If the NDP wiped out the Liberals and conservatives in Ontario you would still be whining about something..

madmax

Debater wrote:
What is wrong with being a 3rd party

Nothing is wrong.. 3rd Party is good, good For Canada. We will always have more then two parties... and often more then 3 parties are elected.

Stockholm

I don't want the Liberals to disappear completely. Canada needs a "boutique" party to represent high income urban professionals who are too rich to vote NDP and too educated to vote Tory. Let a thousand flowers bloom!

Gaian

Ippurigakko wrote:

 I see BQ closely related to NDP. Thats reason they move to NPD rather than vote BQ.

That is indeed central to what is going to happen by 2015 - so hugely dependent on just who will be heading the party at that time, able to satisfy Quebec's felt cultural needs and maintain employment for workers in Quebec, Ontario and the Maritimes in the dual economy now tearing apart the ROC.

socialdemocrati...

I think the Liberals always had a problem with third parties. Always telling us to shut up and vote strategically, because as bad as the Liberals are, the Conservatives are worse.

The good news is most of us support electoral reform as a matter of principle. We wouldn't expect the last 20% of Liberal voters just give up and vote NDP because many of their votes don't count. We'd expect that Liberals still elect 20% of the MPs. Perhaps more, once regions they were previously dead in see that their vote could actually elect a few Liberals.

It's too bad the Liberal party never saw things the same way, and preferred to use every tool at their disposal to maintain power. But then that abuse is why they've fallen so fast and so hard.

Life, the unive...

Debater wrote:

Life, the universe, everything wrote:

Debater wrote:

But if the NDP remains high in Ontario, doesn't that help the Conservatives?

Many would say it's a bad thing for the NDP to do well in Ontario (as in the last election) because it shifts Liberal seats to the Conservatives and helps them win majorities.  2011 is an example of that.  This is the dilemma that the NDP and Liberals face.

We have a name for people that believe such things in the face of all reality.  They are called Liberals.  In the overwhelming number of seats in Ontario held by the Conservatives it is now the NDP who are best placed to defeat them.  Welcome to the dawn of a new era.

I don't see any evidence of that at all.  I'm not sure where you are coming up with those figures.  The large majority of seats in Ontario are Liberal-Conservative races.

Look at the recent Provincial election as another example.  Except in Northern Ontario, Hamilton and a few areas in Toronto, the NDP is largely absent from most of the province.  The NDP did not pick up a single seat from the Ontario Conservatives - all 7 gains came from the Liberals.

And did the NDP take one seat from the Conservatives in Ontario in the last federal election?  I don't remember one.  In fact, I think the NDP lost a seat to the Conservatives, in Sault. Ste. Marie.

Whatever you take on a regular basis to be able to ignore the dawn of a new era I would like some, it seems to be very powerful stuff.  Maybe it will help me wish away the Harper and McGuinty governments as you seem to be able to use it to wish away everything you don't like, no matter how hard it might be staring you in the face.

The federal Liberals are mostly a Toronto rump in Ontario now.  The provincial Liberals are well on their way to this slow enclaving as well.  The fall election was a step along the road to that sort of outcome.  It is not because of McGuinty, but because the Liberals have exposed themselves to be the Seinfield party of Canada.  (A party now about nothing but the pursuit of power, there are no grand ideas, no ideological core, nothing but an empty shell.)  I know the Liberals like you think Ontario stops at the 401, but there is a whole big province out here, where the Liberals are in serious trouble.  If people really are the progressives they claimed, and not just Liberals, then they should be encouraging all and sundry to vote NDP.  Outside of a handful of ridings in the GTA the next election is likely to be an NDP-Conservative grudge match in eras where the Conservatives now hold seats- southwestern Ontario seems to be the obvious example of where the once proud Liberals, using their own rhetoric, are now the party that will ensure a Conservative government by undermining NDP candidates.   

It is a new era and all the old assumptions are gone.   Liberals can compete in a few central urban ridings across the country.  Outside of those, it will be the NDP challenging and defeating Conservative incumbents.

adma

Ken Burch wrote:
Also, it's virtually impossible for the Liberals to win MORE seats than the NDP next time,

I wouldn't be so blunt about that; largely because of the quicksand nature of Quebec politics...

David Young

adma wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:
Also, it's virtually impossible for the Liberals to win MORE seats than the NDP next time,

I wouldn't be so blunt about that; largely because of the quicksand nature of Quebec politics...

Agreed, adma.

Should Mulcair get elected NDP leader, the Bloc could go the way of Social Credit in 1980.  That would mean another 700,000+- votes up for grabs in Quebec.  And those are voters who have steadfastly refused to vote Liberal for decades.

You'd think Mulcair would get a little bit of the credit for helping to remove the BQ as a voice in federal politics, wouldn't you?

 

NorthReport

Nah!  Wink

Stockholm

If the NDP plays its cards right, the BQ could be totally bankrupt and non-existent by 2015 and we could be looking at even MORE NDP seats in Quebec.

Ippurigakko

It would interesting if Mulcair wins then there between Mulcair vs Paille who power in Quebec!

nicky

I agree with you Stockholm, but only with Mulcair

bekayne

Stockholm wrote:

If the NDP plays its cards right, the BQ could be totally bankrupt and non-existent by 2015 and we could be looking at even MORE NDP seats in Quebec.

But what impact would a PQ government have in 2015?

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Debater wrote:

Arthur Cramer wrote:

Debater. lets assume for just a sec you are right. So what? The fact of the matter is the NDP's numbers are on the rise in Ontario, t the point where the New Dems would make significant gains. Really, in terms of support, nothing much has changed, and your Libs are still the official 3rd party of Canadian politics. If you guys really want to do the right thing then it is time to stop thinking about yourselves, anf for the good of Canadians and Canada, vote NDP (where have we heard that kind of logic before I wonder?).

Spin this any way you want, the NDP is the real second party of Canadian politics now and going forward. Your comments are transparently self serving. So, you keep arguing as you do. It doesn't matter.

I say again, ultimately the NDP will decide its own fate, and that you Libs simply are completely irrelevant to the new reality of Canadian politics. If you guys come back, it'll be because the New Dems blow it. It doesn't matter what you guys do, you Libs are irrelevant. This still remains the NDP's to lose, not the Libs to win.

Fuss and bluster all you want, it doesn't matter what you Libs think or argue. The outcome is solely dependant on what the New Dems do going forward. Period!

What is wrong with being a 3rd party?  The NDP was a 3rd party (and as low as a 4th & 5th party) for 50 years.  Don't you think it sounds arrogant when you say that another party is irrelevant and doesn't matter, particularly considering the NDP's own past history (& possible future) as a 3rd party?

I do however agree with you to some extent that because the Liberals have dropped to 3rd, they do not control their own political destiny to the extent they once did.  When you are in 2nd as the NDP now is, it does give you a more powerful argument to make and a greater ability to control the terms of debate.  So to a certain extent you are correct that it may be the NDP's to lose.  But I would suggest more humility and less arrogance in the way you state this, otherwise you will end up sounding the way the old Liberal Party did.

Incidentally, some above seem to assume that the NDP will go up in the polls when a new NDP leader takes over.  That could happen, but there is no guarantee of that.  The new NDP leader can only increase support if he makes the right decisions and comes across as someone who can connect with the people.  If not, those voters who have been parking their votes with the NDP could end up leaving again, and the NDP could actually go down after the new NDP leader takes over.


Yes Debater, you are right, the pro NDP vote could go somewhere else. And as per my point, this depends again, solely on what the NDP does. I didnt' say that I didn't understand that people can think for themselves. I just simply said a real truth, the success of the NDP will depend only on what message it communicates to the citzenry. That message is crafted by the NDP, not by the Libs or anyone else. So, consequently, the NDP is solely responsible for its fate. How is that arrogance? Sorry, I say it again. For all the reasons I have cited, you Libs are irrelevant and ONLY the NDP will decide its fate. Period!!!!

Brachina

David Young wrote:

adma wrote:

Ken Burch wrote:
Also, it's virtually impossible for the Liberals to win MORE seats than the NDP next time,

I wouldn't be so blunt about that; largely because of the quicksand nature of Quebec politics...

Agreed, adma.

Should Mulcair get elected NDP leader, the Bloc could go the way of Social Credit in 1980.  That would mean another 700,000+- votes up for grabs in Quebec.  And those are voters who have steadfastly refused to vote Liberal for decades.

You'd think Mulcair would get a little bit of the credit for helping to remove the BQ as a voice in federal politics, wouldn't you?

 

He does, but the truth is the Bloc was only an pain in the ass, the real threat has always been the PQ, that's the party that federalists really want to go the way of social credit. The Bloc's a good start.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Just checked that Huff Post article I quoted above. About at least 2/3 of the comments are not in support of the "editorialist". I feel even more encouraged. Stick a fork in yourselves Libs and check, you may be done unless you do something to take the heat you put on yourselves off yourselves.

clambake

Latest EKOS: http://threehundredeight.blogspot.ca/2012/03/tight-federal-race-in-british-columbia.html

 

CPC - 35.1

NDP - 29.7

LPC - 19.6

GRN - 8.1

BQ - 5.8

 

 

At this rate, we could have an Ontario and BC breakthrough in 2015!

 

 

 

 

socialdemocrati...

The Liberals are getting killed in BC because their provincial wing is openly conservative. It has a way of repelling most progressives from the BC Liberal party, and is carrying over to the Federal level.

Another power-grabbing Liberal strategy backfires to our benefit.

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

That is all within the polling noise. I am guessing that things really haven't changed much since the last election. I think whom we pick as leader is what will decide which way things go. I have to admit, I am fed up with Alberta. What a wasteland of stupid!

ETA: Yes, I have lived in Alberta. For my money, Calgary is by far the ugliest city in Canada. What a cowboy infested dump!

clambake

Yeah, 60%, wtf. How can any other party make headway there?

NorthReport

Sweet!

Only 5% now separates the NDP from Harper. We can win the next election, make no mistake about that.

clambake wrote:

Latest EKOS: http://threehundredeight.blogspot.ca/2012/03/tight-federal-race-in-british-columbia.html

 

CPC - 35.1

NDP - 29.7

LPC - 19.6

GRN - 8.1

BQ - 5.8

 

 

At this rate, we could have an Ontario and BC breakthrough in 2015!

 

 

 

 

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

NR, you make a good point, but Calagary is sitll a cwoboy infested dump. And it REALLY IS the UGLIEST CITY IN CANADA!

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

All you Libs, why this  looks like exactly the righ time to vote "strategically" to stop the Tories by voting NDP. Now why wouldn't you do that?

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

- double post

Winston

Yes, Arthur, a "cowboy-infested dump" that elected Naheed Nenshi, an excellent mayor.  And as a Winnipegger, I have to say that my city is definitely in contention for "the ugliest".

Don't write Alberta off just yet: our best polls haven't come in!

Arthur Cramer wrote:

NR, you make a good point, but Calagary is sitll a cwoboy infested dump. And it REALLY IS the UGLIEST CITY IN CANADA!

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