Can Edith Loring-Kuhanga defeat Gary Lunn in Saanich-Gulf Islands?

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Lens Solution

Obviously most of the column is right-wing propaganda and anti-environment.

I found it interesting just because it shows that May could face a steeper challenge in this election than in 2008, and so that's why I posted it.

Aristotleded24

Lens Solution wrote:
Obviously most of the column is right-wing propaganda and anti-environment.

Not to mention downright mean-sprited.

Vansterdam Kid

Agreed. May may be an attention grabber, with little or no substance and only borderline relevance to the wider election - but that's just the point. She's a gadfly and it's unseemly to spend a lot of energy or attention attacking her, or her party. I think that attention could be better spent digging up dirt on the Conservatives and trying out new lines of attack on them. Not to mention the fact that even if the Greens still manage to average around 5% of the vote nationally, I don't see how insulting their supporters intelligence is going to get a good 20-40% of that to bleed to an electable progressive party like the NDP.

West Coast Greeny

Stockholm wrote:

This is all 100% true from that column:

"But back in 2008, you’d have thought the party’s time had come. Environmentalism was the new religion. May was getting lots of national media attention. She even managed to get herself invited to participate in the federal party leaders’ televised debate.

She was not supposed to, but when she started whining about being excluded unfairly, public opinion was on her side and so was then-Liberal leader Stephane Dion. (They had a cozy little arrangement not to run candidates against each other as well.)

When the debate took place, she proved herself shrill, annoying and downright rude, interrupting Stephen Harper repeatedly and providing a background chant of “He just doesn’t get it,” to his remarks.

She shouldn’t have been there. The Greens are still a fringe party and they won’t be able to participate fully in the process until they elect someone. The only reason they continue to exist on the edge of national politics is the federal election financing rule that gives each party taxpayers’ money for every vote."

Environmentalism, and everything else, took a back seat to the biggest economic panic since 1929 during that election. May WAS getting huge publicity, before that. 

And as far as I remember May basically held her own ... in English anyways.

I'm kind of surprised the Greens can draw that much vitrol from anyone in the mainstream media. Even The Sun. Yikes.

KenS

Reporter had a hangover.

nicky

I think Elizabeth May is like the Royal wedding. Completely irrelevant to our lives but still drawing lots of unwarranted media attention.

KenS

I think that as aways the media is just reflecting, at the same time that it is part of setting the narrative.

In 2008 the narrative was the Green Party with the dynamic of Elizabeth May now at the forefront.

In 2011 even the national narrative is occasionaly checking in to see how Elizabeth May is doing in that race in BC.

leftgreen

At least Elizabeth May isn't flying around the country in a private jet telling absolutely everyone that "Only a vote for the NDP can stop the Tories"

In my riding, only a vote for the Liberals can stop the Tories unfortunately.

leftgreen

Jack Layton seems like a pretty decent guy though... made him a latte once.

 

 

gyor

leftgreen wrote:

At least Elizabeth May isn't flying around the country in a private jet telling absolutely everyone that "Only a vote for the NDP can stop the Tories"

In my riding, only a vote for the Liberals can stop the Tories unfortunately.

The liberals are lead by iggy and iggy doesn't have what it takes.

janfromthebruce

I agree. Not only that but the differences in polices between Libs and Cons is negligable so Layton is right!

Aristotleded24

No jan, Layton is left ;)

gyor

janfromthebruce wrote:

I agree. Not only that but the differences in polices between Libs and Cons is negligable so Layton is right!

True but it is more then that. Iggy lacks the ability or guts to face off against Harper. He is hiding in NDP held ridings were the cons aren't interested in. The man is coward who is afraid to face harper. He has all of one campaign office in Alberta. Iggy has waved the white flag all ready and the campaign has just started. No wonder liberal MPs are leaving.

leftgreen

what kind of kool-aid are you guys drinking?

the NDP is still going to be the fourth party after the next election - telling people that only an NDP vote will stop the Conservatives is simply not true in the majority of ridings in this country.

What I'd really like to see is the Liberals, NDP and Greens run on a coalition platform and decline to run candidates against each other in strategic ridings - now that would be progressive - instead of this bullshit Vote NDP to stop Harper campaign that has been cooked up for poor Layton

gadar

Liberals not having campaign offices in Alberta is a good thing. Now people opposed to the Cons can rally around the NDP and hopefully NDP can retain its seat and maybe pick more. GO Coalition

Snert Snert's picture

Quote:
What I'd really like to see is the Liberals, NDP and Greens run on a coalition platform and decline to run candidates against each other in strategic ridings - now that would be progressive

 

Artificially denying voters a choice would be progressive?? Strategic, in a totally cynical way, maybe, but not "progressive".

 

If the NDP declined to field a candidate in my riding so that the Liberal or Green would have a better chance of winning (and with the implicit hope that if I can't vote for the candidate I want I'd vote for some half-baked substitute) then I'd honestly consider voting PC out of spite.

 

 

Northern Shoveler Northern Shoveler's picture

Snert you are voter and therefore, according to many, a mindless robot that will do whatever the party that you voted for last tells you do do.  I fail to see how you don't understand that basic political equation.  

Wink

leftgreen

But the PCs don't exist anymore

janfromthebruce

good one Laughing

 

Aristotleded24 wrote:

No jan, Layton is left ;)

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

janfromthebruce

good one Laughing

 

Aristotleded24 wrote:

No jan, Layton is left ;)

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

leftgreen

I'm not in favour of denying "choice", but I think that the three national opposition parties need to get smart and figure out some way of cooperating to ensure that the outcome of the next election is some sort of progressive coalition, rather than a Harper-led minority.

I'm a green, but I'm also a realist... the Greens will never form a government in this country (anytime in the near future) - the best they can hope for is a couple of seats in strategic ridings.  Ditto the NDP - they will NOT break out of fourth party status anytime soon especially with the existence of the Bloq Quebecois - based on all the polling being done the NDP looks like it's actually going to lose seats in the next election.  Cooperation and power sharing (as is done in a lot of European countries) looks like the only solution for Canada's opposition parties, with all the rightists in this country aligned with the Conservatives.

Stockholm

leftgreen wrote:

Ditto the NDP - they will NOT break out of fourth party status anytime soon especially with the existence of the Bloq Quebecois - based on all the polling being done the NDP looks like it's actually going to lose seats in the next election.

Would care to tell us what polls you are referring to because there have been THREE big polls released over the last few days since the govrenment feel that each show the NDP at 19% - 1% above what it got in the last election - and with Liberal support crumbling there is a better than even chance that the NDP will agin and not lose seats in this election.

janfromthebruce

Last I looked, the Greens don't have any seats anywhere and are all but invisible in this election, so talk about drinking kool-aid.

 

And now I am going to be blunt - when the libs, NDP formed a coalition with the support of the Bloc, out of no where, May just had to butt in and try to steal the limelight with her bull crap of "promised a senate seat if the coalition came to power - I about pucked - and it was downhill for support of the coalition from there - what a dis!

Forming a coalition requires seats in the House and not through the backdoor. And I have nothing more to say about this but past actions do speak to me and so, I actually do strongly believe that the libs are tanking and that the NDP will be the official opposition, and May will once again be looking for another province and riding to make it her NEW PERMENANT FOREVER HOME!

 

leftgreen wrote:

what kind of kool-aid are you guys drinking?

the NDP is still going to be the fourth party after the next election - telling people that only an NDP vote will stop the Conservatives is simply not true in the majority of ridings in this country.

What I'd really like to see is the Liberals, NDP and Greens run on a coalition platform and decline to run candidates against each other in strategic ridings - now that would be progressive - instead of this bullshit Vote NDP to stop Harper campaign that has been cooked up for poor Layton

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

Snert Snert's picture

Quote:
I'm a green, but I'm also a realist...

 

Enough to admit that an NDP/Liberal coalition would be sufficient (or perhaps an NDP/Liberal/Bloc coalition?)

 

What do you believe the Greens are going to add to that coalition? They have no seats, and if you really are a realist, I'm sure you'll concede that they're unlikely to score any this election either.

leftgreen

My god, leftists are the most spiteful unfriendly people to talk to when hiding behind online personas...

i never said anywhere that the Greens had seats, only that winning a couple of seats here and there is the best they can hope for right now.  They may well have more votes swing their way in light of all the anti-nuclear sentiment lately, as was the case in recent German elections.  The difference in Germany is that the Social Democrats and the Greens get along and work together in spite of their differences.

An Ekos poll out two days ago had the NDP at 14 % and I haven't seen any polling on any of the major networks that have suggested they are anywhere near polling around 20 %.

If the so-called left can't even agree amongst themselves is it any wonder we can't win elections?

Keep seeing through your orange coloured glasses I guess and keep gunning for that NDP majority, it ain't gonna happen any time soon.

no1important

I think Lunn will win this riding due to Ms. May being a spoiler causing vote splitting  I keep expecting Lunn to lose this riding but he keeps winning. I thought he would of lost last time when NDP candidate withdrew but nope, he stoill managed to win...

leftgreen

Lunn may win the riding indeed but its the Liberal and NDP candidates that are spoiler candidates, not May

no1important

Quote:
.  Cooperation and power sharing (as is done in a lot of European countries) looks like the only solution for Canada's opposition parties, with all the rightists in this country aligned with the Conservatives.

 

But the Liberals do not want to co operate or go coalition. Iggy could of been PM (and harper a distant memory) yethe turned down the job and he stated no coalition again the other day.  It seems to me the libs do not want power unless they can get it all for themselves and this entitlement attitude they still have has damaged their party (probably for a generation if not for good) and well on its way to changing Canada into a mini USA and gawd knows what else because they turned down the coalition which would of sent Harper packing, yet Iggy and the Libs breathed new life into Harper and look where we are now.

 

If Harper gets a majority, the blame gores to the incompetent Liberals and their lame duck leader 100%.

 

I hope the liberal party gets destroyed and NDP/BQ get enough seats to prevent a Harper majority...

Snert Snert's picture

Quote:

Keep seeing through your orange coloured glasses I guess and keep gunning for that NDP majority, it ain't gonna happen any time soon.

 

I'm expecting some NDP seats, though of course not a majority.

 

But my question still stands: why would the NDP or anyone else want to buddy up with the Greens if they have no seats? What does the GPC have to share, in this coalition that you imagine?

wage zombie

leftgreen wrote:

I'm not in favour of denying "choice", but I think that the three national opposition parties need to get smart and figure out some way of cooperating to ensure that the outcome of the next election is some sort of progressive coalition, rather than a Harper-led minority.

Considering that the NDP is campaigning foremost in Conservative-held ridings, and the Liberals are campaigning foremost in NDP-held ridings, which party do you think is the one that doesn't want to co-operate?

As well, when Jack Layton says that he'd consider a coalition, and Duceppe says that he'd support the coalition, and Ignatieff says he will refuse to form a coalition, who do you think would be to blame for the lack of a coalition?

wage zombie

leftgreen wrote:

My god, leftists are the most spiteful unfriendly people to talk to when hiding behind online personas...

I suspect you are getting this reaction because people feel that, despite your claim to being a realist, you're not being honest.

Quote:

An Ekos poll out two days ago had the NDP at 14 % and I haven't seen any polling on any of the major networks that have suggested they are anywhere near polling around 20 %.

Case in point.

Stockholm

leftgreen wrote:

An Ekos poll out two days ago had the NDP at 14 % and I haven't seen any polling on any of the major networks that have suggested they are anywhere near polling around 20 %.

I guess you haven't been looking very hard. In the last two days - Leger - NDP 19%, Angus Reid - NDP 19%, Forum NDP - 19% - I don't know about you but i would call 19% pretty damn close to 20%!

leftgreen

how am I not being honest?

I'm asserting my desire for more cooperation amongst the three main (national) opposition parties... 

with nearly a million votes shouldn't the Greens have some sort of representation?

Why can't the Dips and the Greens team up for some sort of cooperation on PR? It would benefit them both, no?

KenS

Maybe honest isnt the right word, but tinted glasses as to where the problems are with cooperation among the 3 major opposition parties.

Ditto for seeing the NDP at the lowest you possibly could, while the opposite for the Greens. [Winning one or two seats is not just the 'best that could be hoped for'.... its in the same realm of probability as the NDP getting 85 seats. Mind you, that tilting is normal for all partisans. But you are casting stones to talk about orange tinted glasses.]

The NDP could do more about PR, but there is absolutley no reason for the NDP to 'work with' the Greens on PR. Both parties have it in their platforms but devote no real resources to it. Follow Elizabeth May around and see what proportion of time she devotes to PR, as compared to the main campaigning narratives. She doesnt say much about it for the same reason the NDP doesn't.

Lens Solution

leftgreen wrote:

At least Elizabeth May isn't flying around the country in a private jet telling absolutely everyone that "Only a vote for the NDP can stop the Tories"

In my riding, only a vote for the Liberals can stop the Tories unfortunately.

All 3 opposition parties are saying that only they can stop the Cons, and you are right that there is no one party who can stop them in every riding.  It depends on the riding.  Sometimes it is the NDP or the BQ, and sometimes it is the Liberals.  True.

Pope Teddywang Pope Teddywang's picture

The breakdown in SGI:

 The village of Sidney, largely populated by US retirees, votes hard right.

Rural Saanich consists largely of labour-friendly Co-op members, there are also four native reserves and some suburban sprawl.

The more sparsely populated Gulf Islands are traditionally an environmentalist bastion, but both the islands and rural Saanich are increasingly filling with monied Albertans.

This has been accompanied by increased pressure on local regulative bodies and an increased frequency of unpredictable events that affect the course of elections.

The Libs did well under Briony because she was a beloved local media figure whose grandfather was once family doctor to half the Peninsula.
Her handpicked successor is a Climate Scientist with far more credibilty as a 'green' candidate than Ms. May, who has been parachuted in from across the country.

Did Ms. May really think she could win in a riding with this sort of profile?

Or is her presence here another one of those unpredictable events?

Snert Snert's picture

Quote:

I'm asserting my desire for more cooperation amongst the three main (national) opposition parties... 

 

So the Greens would benefit from being in some kind of partnership with parties that actually have seats, and can influence Parliament.

 

What would they bring???

 

Obviously this kind of partnership would benefit the Greens, particularly if they're shut out again. But how would it benefit the others?

wage zombie

It would give them a strong senator in Elizabeth May, silly.

Northern Shoveler Northern Shoveler's picture

leftgreen wrote:

Lunn may win the riding indeed but its the Liberal and NDP candidates that are spoiler candidates, not May

I agree, since this riding has been designated by the Green elite to be the chosen one.

Damn those other parties.  They should just let Miss May have her way and a seat in the House. Its only fair that the people of that riding get an Ottawa operative as their LOCAL representative.  I would say the same thing for any other riding if it had been chosen. Damn any local riding associations in other parties who think otherwise.  Green democarcy means letting Ellie May have her seat since her voice is vital to the planet.

Ken Burch

wage zombie wrote:

It would give them a strong senator in Elizabeth May, silly.

Would that mean she'd take a break from divinity school 'til she's 75?

Northern Shoveler Northern Shoveler's picture

I am sure she would fit in really well with all the other Ottawa operatives and political hacks.  Maybe Mike will take her to dinner with some of the Reformers who gave up on a Triple E Senate and settled for the gravy instead. 

JKR

The "he said-she said" bickering on this thread and too many other threads shows how pathetic our FPTP system is. Every choice the political parties have made so far makes total sense under our FPTP system. The big problem we have is that our 2-candidate electoral system, FPTP, is causing more problems then ever because we have more strong parties then ever.

People can point and blame certain politicians, leaders, and parties, but until the structure of our politics changes, we'll be stuck with this mess.

When we had those referendums on electoral reform too many people couldn't connect the dots. Too many people who complain during elections about things like vote splitting, people not voting, strategic voting, party leaders attacking the wrong parties, too often don't support the solution to this mess, which is electoral reform. I'd even argue that Harper's megalomaniac deceitfulness is primarily caused by FPTP. Harper is in a position where he has to get a majority to stay in power. The only way for him to do that is to stay above 37% and push the Liberals under 26% and keep the NDP under 24%. His unethical character assassination of Ignatieff and Dion before him is the only way he can win the game of FPTP within our multi-party system. If the NDP had been in the mid to high 20's Harper would have unethically and mercilessly attacked Layton and not Ignatieff. Harper's goal is to have the NDP and Liberals as low in the polls as possible but also as close together as possible in the polls. His goal is to have as much vote splitting as possible amongst his opponents. His goal is to have his opponents bicker amongst themselves as much as possible. His greatest fear is electoral reform. Without FPTP he would be in no position to win a fake majority.

If we had PR/Fair voting this whole dynamic would totally change. Under PR/Fair Voting Harper would have no chance of winning a majority. He would have to cooperate with other parties. All these lies and assaults on character would suddenly become counter productive without the possibility of gaining a fake FPTP majority.

This election reaffirms over and over and over again why we need electoral reform. 

gyor

Abacus has the NDP at 20 as well.

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

At the risk of sounding like a broken record (btw, how many people today have even heard such an anachronistic thing as a stuck vinyl recording repeating the same ~2 seconds over and over?) I completely agree with JKR that FPTP is the root cause of the worst problems our democracy faces. I applaud him (her?) for bringing this point up time and again. It cannot be repeated too often.

JKR

Thanks.

It's a tireless job but someone's gotta do it.

JKR

Socialists should look at the structural foundations of our political problems.

KenS

That makes two broken records.

What make you think the song has not been thoroughly committed to heart?

Nothing less than all of us being broken records is sufficient?

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

When the house is burning down, you don't worry about dusting the furniture.

 

Ciabatta2

Gary Lunn will win.  If he couldn't be toppled in an election where the NDP candidate was forced to resign mid-way through the campaign, he's not going to lose with a full slate of challengers.  The real race is for second, third and fourth - my prediciton being a distant second for the Greens and then a close third-fourth race of Liberal, then NDP.  Like the London by-election.

People should not underesimate the sway of the 'May deserves a seat' argument that Northern Shoveler makes five or six posts above; we all see the ridiculousness of it but plenty of very rational people succumb to that view, regardless of their political leanings.  It is widely held by many non-political voters, particularly mush non-big-P-political NDP voters usually attracted in a riding like this.  Yes, it makes no sense democratically but things don't need to make sense when the system is already viewed broken and generally distrusted by the electorate.  Everybody loves a Thomas the Tank Engine-type story and poor Miss May is a good a sympathy target as any.

KenS

I understand all the issues around PR. [Thats the most important point as to how much of the broken record business we need around here.]

I support PR.

Like a lot of other people, I dont think it is nearly as central as many of you make it out to be.

So to my mind, not having or moving towards PR, is definitely not the house burning down.

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