Can Edith Loring-Kuhanga defeat Gary Lunn in Saanich-Gulf Islands?

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Ken Burch

Michael Moriarity wrote:

When the house is burning down, you don't worry about dusting the furniture.

 

You mean, you don't care if the firemen think you have a messy house?

janfromthebruce

Layton had this to say about the Senate today in Regina via

Layton issues challenge to Harper

:

The NDP leader used the scandal to go after the senate – the upper legislative body his party has long demanded be abolished – describing it as stuffed with Conservative party bagmen, failed candidates and friends earning salaries funded by taxpayers.

 

The principle here is "failed candidates" whether they be Conservatives, Liberals, Bloc or Greens!

 

And further all about this cooperation between NDP and Greens, well I have a very strong memory of the last election wher May - AT EVERY OPPORTUNITY - acted as the Liberal's "cat's paw" to take swipes at Layton! So now NDP is suppose to be all charitable to May and act cooperatively. May needs to eat humble pie so if you think that social democrats on here are cold hearted towards May well she earned "each shitty thing she said against Jack Layton."

 

wage zombie wrote:

It would give them a strong senator in Elizabeth May, silly.

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

Lens Solution

leftgreen wrote:

Lunn may win the riding indeed but its the Liberal and NDP candidates that are spoiler candidates, not May

If I had to choose between Lunn and May, I would rather May won because I dispise the Conservatives.  But the dilemma she is causing is that by running in a riding she is unlikely to win, she makes it more difficult for other parties like the NDP to win because she is dividing up that vote.  Why doesn't she run in a Conservative riding where the left vote won't be as divided?  As someone else suggested, why not run in Ottawa West-Nepean agaisnt John Baird where the other parties are less likely to win and would be more persuaded to vote for her?

In any event, it's good to see that all 3 non-Conservative parties in S-GI are running women candidates!  3 women against Gary Lunn!

adma

Lens Solution wrote:
If I had to choose between Lunn and May, I would rather May won because I dispise the Conservatives.  But the dilemma she is causing is that by running in a riding she is unlikely to win, she makes it more difficult for other parties like the NDP to win because she is dividing up that vote.  Why doesn't she run in a Conservative riding where the left vote won't be as divided?  As someone else suggested, why not run in Ottawa West-Nepean agaisnt John Baird where the other parties are less likely to win and would be more persuaded to vote for her?

In and of himself, I can see Baird *more* likely to be defeated than Lunn--though more lopsidedly in the Liberals' favour, rather than the 2/3-way split situation Lunn faces...

Ciabatta2

^^^ Exactly.  In order to establish a beachhead the Greens need to run their leader in a riding where the NDP support is soft and mushy, made up more of disaffected generally-left voters than strong NDP partisans.  Nepean is a good example.  Places like Oakville or Burlington or some eastern and southern Ontario ridings.  I'm sure BC has its equivalents.

But this riding, however, has too much of an entrenched NDP core, and in particular a significant portion of that core is an older-style NDP demographic that isn't going to vote Green regardless of what May thinks of herself.  The Greens need to realize that a significant part of the left wing vote will not come out to back you just because you are pro-environment and same-sex-marriage, and find ridings where that vote is minimal.

This riding is too Conservative and will not allow the Greens to succesfully attract enough NDP votes to shoot up the middle, ever.

(PS - It is crazy to think that parties, all of them, are spending all of this time and energy and money targetting ridings where a little bit of analysis shows that the demographics just don't add up.  Insane.  And disappointing.  Because the Greens could probably swing a seat by now, if they did their homework and approached winning a seat in a targetted, practical and methodical manner.)

Ken Burch

May should just have stood in Central Nova again.  Why give up the base of support she'd created there?

KenS

She didnt have one.

The next time she ran she would have got less.

Going to Central Nova was a REAL big mistake. SGI would have been a tolerable choice to make in 2007. Though the best would have been to run again in London North Centre.

But this being her last kick at the can she needed the discipline to go for the BEST choice, not merely better than the mistake of Central Nova.

Guelph has a much better demographic for the GPC, and had an excellent base.  But the party is supposed to tuen itself inside out for her, not vice versa. So much for Guelph.

leftgreen

I wanted to respond to the assertion that E May is a parachute candidate...

Historically, in Canadian politics, leaders of political parties seeking a seat outside of their home province are not referred to as parachute candidates.

Tommy Douglas ran in two different B.C. ridings when he was the leader of the Federal NDP.  Was he a parachute candidate?

Stockholm

Maybe after losing in Ontario, then losing in Nova Scotia and then losing in BC - the next step for May will be to take a French immersion course (right now she speaks French like my ass chews gum!) and run for a seat in Quebec - and lose there. One loss in each region - she could win a title for that!

janfromthebruce

yes, in seats held by THE NDP! They are called safe seats where the sitting member of parliaments steps aside so the leader can get into the House.

 

leftgreen wrote:

I wanted to respond to the assertion that E May is a parachute candidate...

Historically, in Canadian politics, leaders of political parties seeking a seat outside of their home province are not referred to as parachute candidates.

Tommy Douglas ran in two different B.C. ridings when he was the leader of the Federal NDP.  Was he a parachute candidate?

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

janfromthebruce

yes, in seats held by THE NDP! They are called safe seats where the sitting member of parliaments steps aside so the leader can get into the House.

 

leftgreen wrote:

I wanted to respond to the assertion that E May is a parachute candidate...

Historically, in Canadian politics, leaders of political parties seeking a seat outside of their home province are not referred to as parachute candidates.

Tommy Douglas ran in two different B.C. ridings when he was the leader of the Federal NDP.  Was he a parachute candidate?

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

KenS

Personally, I dont think there is any substance to the charge she is a parachute candidate. That is for the people of a riding to decide. Though Central Nova did not warm to her really, only partisans and people ideologically ill disposed thought of her as a carpet bagger.

My charge- well backed up- is her expectation that the party turn itself inside out for her. And she has never reciprocated by buckling down and dropping herself in the best place to run, period.

David Young

leftgreen wrote:

I wanted to respond to the assertion that E May is a parachute candidate...

Historically, in Canadian politics, leaders of political parties seeking a seat outside of their home province are not referred to as parachute candidates.

Tommy Douglas ran in two different B.C. ridings when he was the leader of the Federal NDP.  Was he a parachute candidate?

Get your facts right before you criticize, leftgreen.

Tommy Douglas tried to get elected in a Saskatchewan riding in the 1962 election, but there was such public hysteria perpetrated by the right wingers over the universal medicare program that Douglas has initiated in Saskatchewan as the CCF/NDP premier, the Liberals and Conservatives formed a coaltion to defeat Douglas in his own seat.  (To defeat the Socialist threat to the Canadian way of life!)

A B.C. MP, Erhart Regier immediately resigned his seat of Burnaby-Coquitlam, and Tommy won the by-election (in which the Liberals and Conservatives ran candidates, unlike when Chretien ran in Beausejour in 1990 or Harper in Calgary Southwest in 2002, where they didn't run candidates against the other Party's leaders!)

In 1968, the Liberals gerrymandered the new boundaries of the Burnaby-Seymour riding to let Ray Perreault squeak past Douglas by 138 votes.  Then, the sitting NDP MP for Nanaimo-Cowichan-The Islands, Colin Cameron, died suddenly, and Douglas ran in that by-election (again with the Liberals and Conservatives running candidates against him!)

Liberals/Tories...same old stories!

 

MegB

Continued here.

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