Canada's Next Federal Election

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NorthReport
Canada's Next Federal Election

NDP deserves kudos for pushing government to help seniors -- and many others

 

ANALYSIS

 Jagmeet Singh/Twitter/Video screenshot

 

https://rabble.ca/news/2020/05/ndp-deserves-kudos-pushing-government-help-seniors-and-many-others

NorthReport

Signing of Wet'suwet'en agreement could land Ottawa in court

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/wetsuweten-agreement-signing-1.5567760

NorthReport

Conservative Party caucus split over Sloan’s potential ouster, with lines drawn between Ontario and rural, Western Canada MPs

May 14 2020 — Abbas Rana — 

Conservative MP Derek Sloan’s potential expulsion from caucus over his controversial remarks is causing a rift between Ontario MPs, who want him out, and a vast majority of Western and rural MPs, who oppose that move, according to Conservative MPs. “It’s like Ontario caucus saying, ‘We’re never going to win if this guy’s on the […]

https://www.hilltimes.com/2020/05/14/conservatives-party-caucus-split-over-sloans-potential-ouster-with-lines-drawn-between-ontario-and-rural-western-canada-mps/248346

NorthReport

Most Canadians back postponing elections until after COVID-19 pandemic

https://globalnews.ca/news/6933109/coronavirus-delaying-elections-canada/

NDPP

Like the virus itself, the prospect of enduring an election campaign is a plague most Canadians will gladly forgo. Notwithstanding that, if we are now 'reopening' and being made to return to our workplaces, shouldn't the bloodsucking politicians have to return to theirs also? If it's not yet considered safe for them to do so, why do they imagine it is safe for the rest of us?

pietro_bcc

If there is a "pandemic federal election" Trudeau will probably win more seats than he won in 2015.

Ken Burch

NorthReport wrote:

Most Canadians back postponing elections until after COVID-19 pandemic

https://globalnews.ca/news/6933109/coronavirus-delaying-elections-canada/

That wouldn't be postponing, actually-there was an election last year, and the government that was returned with a minority is in no danger of being defeated in the House anytime soon, especially with most of the House unable to actually set foot in the chamber.

North, why did you think there WOULD be another election this early?

NorthReport

Unfortunately some Canadians haven't quite grasped the fact that Covid-19 is probably going to be around, possibly for a long, long time.

Elections Canada looking at how it could run an election during the pandemic

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/elections-canada-vote-pandemic-1.5534865

R.E.Wood

Whenever the election happens the Liberals will stand a good chance of winning a majority again because they've done a generally admirable job during this crisis, the Cons have no-one running for their leadership who would be an acceptable PM for the majority of Canadians, and sadly the NDP has been virtually invisible.

NorthReport
Ken Burch

Yes, that poll shows the Liberals with a large lead- a lead that will almost certainly vanish if Justin is foolish enough to force the voters to go to the polls during a pandemic.

Even Justin wouldn't be THAT stupid.

Aristotleded24

R.E.Wood wrote:
Whenever the election happens the Liberals will stand a good chance of winning a majority again because they've done a generally admirable job during this crisis, the Cons have no-one running for their leadership who would be an acceptable PM for the majority of Canadians, and sadly the NDP has been virtually invisible.

How do you see the Bloc doing in Quebec? That played a key role in the Liberals losing majority status last year.

That said, I agree that the government has faced little actual opposition for its handling of coronavirus. There are legitimate questions about what the government knew and when, and why the government didn't act sooner, and why our airports were left wide open long after the WHO declared a global pandemic and urged social distancing. Unfortunately the Conservatives are ignoring that and going in on anti-China nationalism, as if taking their cues from Donald Trump.

R.E.Wood

Aristotleded24 wrote:

R.E.Wood wrote:
Whenever the election happens the Liberals will stand a good chance of winning a majority again because they've done a generally admirable job during this crisis, the Cons have no-one running for their leadership who would be an acceptable PM for the majority of Canadians, and sadly the NDP has been virtually invisible.

How do you see the Bloc doing in Quebec? That played a key role in the Liberals losing majority status last year.

That said, I agree that the government has faced little actual opposition for its handling of coronavirus. There are legitimate questions about what the government knew and when, and why the government didn't act sooner, and why our airports were left wide open long after the WHO declared a global pandemic and urged social distancing. Unfortunately the Conservatives are ignoring that and going in on anti-China nationalism, as if taking their cues from Donald Trump.

I admit I am not up-to-date at the moment on the Bloc's prospects in Quebec right now, or how Covid-19 might affect those prospects. You're absolutely right to point out that how Quebec votes has a substantial impact on the potential for any party to be able to form a majority government or not. 

NorthReport

Looks like the Post Mellennial, and all those Proud websites are big fans of Erin O'Toole. 

NorthReport

This isn't saying that much, if we take into account that the Conservatives have a very unpopular lame-duck leader.

https://abacusdata.ca/political-update-polling-canadian-politics-may2020/

NorthReport

And it has nothing whatsoever to do with the fact that many nursing homes are owned, and operated by, the rich one percenters. Wink! Wink!

Parliament focuses on COVID-19 and women, but ignores nursing homes

https://rabble.ca/news/2020/05/parliament-focuses-covid-19-and-women-ignores-nursing-homes

NorthReport
kropotkin1951

NorthReport wrote:

And it has nothing whatsoever to do with the fact that many nursing homes are owned, and operated by, the rich one percenters. Wink! Wink!

Parliament focuses on COVID-19 and women, but ignores nursing homes

https://rabble.ca/news/2020/05/parliament-focuses-covid-19-and-women-ignores-nursing-homes

You own many nursing homes.

NorthReport

Brilliant!

Canadian Politician HAMMERS Jeff Bezos over Amazon Wage Cuts

Last week Jeff Bezos and Amazon announced that they would be cutting the wages and overtime pay of workers in Canada. This was all while Jeff Bezos was announced to be on pace to become a Trillionaire off the backs of his workers

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_uDjiZS1wg&feature=em-uploademail

Debater

What Stephen Harper built over 10 years, Andrew Scheer has quickly squandered

By Chantal Hébert

Sat., May 23, 2020

https://www.thestar.com/amp/politics/political-opinion/2020/05/23/what-stephen-harper-built-over-10-years-andrew-scheer-has-quickly-squandered.html

earthquakefish

NorthReport wrote:

Brilliant!

Canadian Politician HAMMERS Jeff Bezos over Amazon Wage Cuts

Last week Jeff Bezos and Amazon announced that they would be cutting the wages and overtime pay of workers in Canada. This was all while Jeff Bezos was announced to be on pace to become a Trillionaire off the backs of his workers

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3_uDjiZS1wg&feature=em-uploademail

No one should be suprised this crisis prompts a new class war.  Saying hey you have to go to work, but I can stay home and get paid is actually evident of that.  Some will even spin it like the Amazon chief, which does come off as he does not care and that he's better. The only hope right now, is people are more empathetic to what they feel is wrong.

Yet, Jeff is likey placing a safe bet, many are buying online and that they'll never see his comment.

 

earthquakefish

Debater wrote:

What Stephen Harper built over 10 years, Andrew Scheer has quickly squandered

By Chantal Hébert

Sat., May 23, 2020

https://www.thestar.com/amp/politics/political-opinion/2020/05/23/what-stephen-harper-built-over-10-years-andrew-scheer-has-quickly-squandered.html

 

He's not squandering it outside in political terms.... Harpers response to those less fortunate was always sorry about your luck, maybe we can find a way to serve you.  Scheer continues that message, but has forgotten his position, and times - looking only towards populist opinion that once was, which isnt working in his favour right now.

One thing I do wonder, how long can moderate MPs like Michael Chong support a party now openly supporting conversation that masks racism behind political opportunity?

NorthReport

I don't think Peter is going to have much say in the matter, but whatever...

Peter MacKay says fall election not ‘the priority’ for the country amid coronavirus

https://globalnews.ca/news/6975359/conservative-peter-mackay-fall-election-coronavirus-covid-19/

NorthReport

Now that's a scary thought!

‘Like Churchill,’ Bring Harper Back to Lead Tories, Urges Riding President

Email to CPC members floats ‘trial balloon’ while shooting down Scheer.

https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2020/05/24/Bring-Harper-Back-Urges-Riding-President/

NorthReport
NorthReport

NDP in second place in latest Nanos Party Power Index.

The Bloc is at 41 points in Quebec.  

 

Ken Burch

NorthReport wrote:

Now that's a scary thought!

‘Like Churchill,’ Bring Harper Back to Lead Tories, Urges Riding President

Email to CPC members floats ‘trial balloon’ while shooting down Scheer.

https://thetyee.ca/Analysis/2020/05/24/Bring-Harper-Back-Urges-Riding-President/

It should be noted, though, that in the first election Churchill fought as Tory leader, he led his party to a cataclysmic defeat, and that the only electoral "victory" Churchill ever scored as leader, in the 1951 election the Cons actually lost in the the popular vote and only ended up with a governing majority in the seat count because of the way the constituency lines were drawn-with Labour's vote largely bottled up in safe seats-and in a coalition with the National Liberals, a right-wing splinter from the old Liberal Party which existed as a distinct grouping in parliament until 1959.

 

NorthReport

And thank goodness Churchill became prime minister, as had he not become Prime Minister, WW2 might have had a different outcome.

Appeasement

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Appeasement

Revealed: why Churchill considered negotiating with Germany in 1940

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/this-britain/revealed-why-churchill-considered-negotiating-with-germany-in-1940-535401.html

NorthReport

MacKay presently at 45% support, has 9% lead over O'Toole, so will Harper be able to swing enough voters to O'Toole before the vote?

Ken Burch

In any case, there is no way there will be an election while the pandemic is underway or anytime within at least a year after it is over.  The voters would punish the Liberals for calling one, and would equally punish the Cons, the Bloc and the NDP for forcing one-if they all agreed on holding an early election, that might be the only situation in which either the GPC or the People's Party could actually make an electoral breakthrough.

Aristotleded24

Here is my read on how this is shaping out:

The NDP has done a great job arm-twisting the Liberals into providing relief to Canadians during the pandemic. Jagmeet Singh, however, as not been able to effectively communicate that, and so Trudeau is taking the credit. May and Blanchet deserve credit for saying that oil is dead, and exposing the Liberal government's moves around issues relating to the fossil fuel economy.

By far the biggest losers in the pandemic are the Conservatives. There are several questions about the government's preparedness for this pandemic that they are well equipped to ask. Questions like when our intelligence agencies realized that this thing would be worse than what China was saying, how bad, why the government didn't act immediately upon receiving those reports, and why our nursing homes were so badly prepared. Instead, they are taking on Trumpian talking points about how this is China's fault and that China is the reason that the WHO failed in its response. It's true that public opinion in Canada may not be pro-China at this point. Canadians understand, however, the difference between the failures of the Chinese government and why it's not appropriate to take that out on individual Chinese Canadians, although there have been some racist incidents here. Furthermore, since (with the exception of Northern Saskatchewan and the Toronto and Montreal metropolitan areas) Canada is doing well at this moment and can proceed with re-opening without risking large-scale infections, the need to find a foreign scapegoat isn't there like it is in the US. Such a shame. We want a loyal opposition, an opposition that can credibly challenge the government on its failures, not this clown show going on right now.

Policywonk

NorthReport wrote:

MacKay presently at 45% support, has 9% lead over O'Toole, so will Harper be able to swing enough voters to O'Toole before the vote?

These are first choice votes; the Conservative Leadership is ranked ballot and O'Toole does better with second choice votes.

NorthReport
NorthReport

So what's the holdup with the 10 day sick pay program?

NorthReport

14th highest in the world with over 90,000 Covid-19 cases, and now surpassing 7,000 deaths, apart from a few regions Canadian results overall in fighting the pandemic appear to be disasterous

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/canada/

NorthReport
NorthReport

NDP forces the overwhelming number of complainsts against Canadian airlines to be made public

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/cta-overwhelmed-by-2-year-complaint-bac...

NorthReport
NorthReport

A fall federal election is ‘a real possibility,’ and a ‘sweet spot’ for Liberals to win a majority, say pollsters

Jun 1 2020 — Abbas Rana — 

While Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s Liberals are currently enjoying a strong wave of national popularity, a fall election is a “real possibility” from a purely strategic point of view, and an ideal time to convert a minority government into a majority, say leading pollsters. “The number suggests that there’s going to be a window, at […]

https://www.hilltimes.com/2020/06/01/a-fall-federal-election-is-a-real-possibility-say-pollsters/250478

NorthReport

 

L 37%

C 31%

N 17%

B 7%

G 5%

http://angusreid.org/federal-politics-june2020/

NorthReport
kropotkin1951

NorthReport wrote:

Trudeau rejects Trump suggestion to readmit Russia to G7, citing Crimea invasion

https://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2020/06/01/trudeau-rejects-trump-suggestion-to-readmit-russia-to-g7-citing-crimea-invasion/#.XtVhXJ5Khp-

Crimean invasion, what a joke.

On March 16, 2014 the legislature of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the local government of Sevastopol (both subdivisions of Ukraine) held a referendum that asked the local populations whether they wanted to join Russia as a federal subject, or if they wanted to restore the 1992 Crimean constitution and Crimea's status as a part of Ukraine. The official result from the Autonomous Republic of Crimea was a 97 percent vote for integration of the region into the Russian Federation with an 83 percent voter turnout, and within the local government of Sevastopol there was also a 97 percent vote for integration of the region into the Russian Federation with an 89 percent voter turnout.

Ken Burch

NorthReport wrote:

 

L 37%

C 31%

N 17%

B 7%

G 5%

http://angusreid.org/federal-politics-june2020/

That's comparable to how the Liberals were polling for much of the 1972 election campaign, when his dad was running for re-election.  I assume Justin knows what the result of that contest was.

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

If there is an election this fall, you can bet your ass there will be plenty of articles and video pieces about how many extra covid deaths will be caused by the necessity of people going to the polls. I would guess it would also produce a record low turnout, rendering the results extremely unpredictable. Perhaps the far right will have a big edge in getting out the vote, because their supporters think God is protecting them from the virus.

NorthReport

Sounds like it may be time to vote online.

Michael Moriarity Michael Moriarity's picture

I have posted links to technical articles in many other threads, showing that there is currently no way to have secure, reliable online voting. Any system using current technologies will be hackable. If the government of Canada instituted online voting, I would never vote again, and never believe another election result.

NorthReport

You appear to be correct, however it seems Elections Canada is seriously researching online voting, and some muncipalities in Canada are already using it.

Online voting is impossible to secure. So why are some governments using it?

If you thought electronic voting machines were insecure, wait 'til you meet online voting.

https://www.csoonline.com/article/3269297/online-voting-is-impossible-to-secure-so-why-are-some-governments-using-it.html

If I Can Shop and Bank Online, Why Can’t I Vote Online?

https://www.verifiedvoting.org/resources/internet-voting/vote-online/

Online Voting Not Secure Even With Blockchain, Says US Association

The Center for Scientific Evidence in Public Issues penned an open letter urging officials not to utilize blockchain for U.S. elections.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/online-voting-not-secure-even-with-blockchain-says-us-association

Pondering

We should promote mail in ballots. 

Pondering

double post

NorthReport
jerrym

Pondering wrote:

We should promote mail in ballots. 

I agree.

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