Canada's Next Federal Election

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Mighty Middle

NDP has budgeted 11 Million dollars for ads, and the first ads will appear this Saturday Night during Hockey Night in Canada

Pondering

Pondering wrote:
Most Canadians don't yet know that the Conservative Party has reaffirmed its disbelief in climate change.  

melovesproles wrote:
  According to you, most Canadians still don't know the new Conservative party isn't the Progressive Conservative party so doesn't that mean we have to wait at least 20 years for Canadians to realize what happened at this Conservative convention?  

No because it will be highly publicized during the election period when it counts. It will never really hit home with Canadians that The Conservative party is actually the Reform party but it doesn't matter because regardless of the name it is still the Reform Party calling the shots and it is their policy not their name that is at the root of their problem. The merge just fooled people for awhile. 

melovesproles wrote:
 What social programs have Majority Liberal governments ever implemented, regardless of what they say at their conventions or in their policy documents? They had several majority governments to put in the national daycare program they outlined in their Red Book and it never got mentioned until Paul Martin saw his minority government slipping away. 

So because of that Trudeau didn't win any elections because Canadians know that Liberals don't keep their promises. Oh wait, Trudeau did win elections and is set to win the next. Neither broken promises nor brazen corruption has prevented the Liberals from getting elected. 

melovesproles wrote:
But sure, they will bring in pharmacare and UBI if they get a majority...

I stated specifically that the exective is against UBI therefore it will not happen. I put "pharmacare" in quotes because "pharmacare" for the uninsured isn't pharmacare. the meaning of pharmacare is single payer system like medicare. 

Not keeping promises doesn't stop the Liberals from making more promises and winning based on those promises. 

JKR wrote:
 Trudeau is lucky that their are no Liberal governments in Ontario, Quebec, and BC.

melovesproles wrote:
  I think you are really overstating the importance of this. In BC completely different voters support the Federal and Provincial Liberals. The dynamic in Quebec also looks a lot more complicated. In Ontario, the provincial Liberals are polling behind the Conservatives and NDP so how is that an advantage? The brand seems to be seriously damaged especially with younger voters.  

I think you misunderstood what he meant. When there is a Liberal government in power in Quebec, Quebeckers are more likely to vote against the Liberals federally, to vote either Conservative, NDP or Bloc. That same dynamic also plays out in Ontario although sometimes the opposite can occur.

That is, people can choose Liberal or Conservative for both levels of government in the hopes that cooperation between the two levels of government will bring benefits to the province in question. 

So in the next federal election, that Ford is unpopular, will help push the Liberals towards a majority. That Legault, a nationlist, is in power in Quebec, may also benefit the Liberals although Bill 21 will still help the Bloc. In the next Ontario election the Liberals will be favored even though the federal Liberals will still be in power in the hopes of cooperation between the two levels benefiting the province. On the other hand I doubt Trudeau will be improving his reputation so it's possible provincially Ontario could still go Conservative or NDP. 

melovesproles

Pondering wrote:

That same dynamic also plays out in Ontario although sometimes the opposite can occur.

That is, people can choose Liberal or Conservative for both levels of government in the hopes that cooperation between the two levels of government will bring benefits to the province in question. 

I get it but like you point out, it can be used to explain complete opposite outcomes. That's kind of useless. 

Pondering wrote:

So in the next federal election, that Ford is unpopular, will help push the Liberals towards a majority.

Depends on how you define popularity. A lot of Ontario polls have the Conservatives comfortably in the lead and the Liberals in 3rd place which seems odd if it's the Conservatives who are unpopular. I can't remember a time when the Provincial Liberal brand was this unpopular in Ontario.

Pondering wrote:

That Legault, a nationlist, is in power in Quebec, may also benefit the Liberals although Bill 21 will still help the Bloc.

That's unfortunate for the Liberals because according to riding specific polling the Liberals will need to take seats from the Bloc to get a majority.

Pondering wrote:

Not keeping promises doesn't stop the Liberals from making more promises and winning based on those promises. 

They have only won one majority in the last twenty years. Most Canadians don't seem to trust them to keep their promises. It's a little less than one third of voting Canadians which in our electoral system is enough to get a minority government.

Pondering wrote:

Vote with the Liberals or face another election the NDP will be blamed for. 

Hahah sure. I remember the last time Liberals spammed the internet and tv with that talking point. Martin lost his minority government. When the Liberals go to that move, you know they are completely out of ideas. It relies on such a complete lack of understanding of who NDP voters are. I've met absolutely zero people who would be persuaded to vote Liberal because the NDP "caused an election." That's because people who vote NDP know that the only way they get anything they want passed is by being able to leverage the Liberals during a minority government situtation. I would love to see the Liberals go back to that tired canard. It would mean they have learned nothing from their time in opposition.

Pondering

It isn't that Liberals will say it, it's that it is true.  When a Conservative minority fails the Liberals are blamed not the NDP.

It isn't useless to see that sometimes citizens are likely to want the federal and provincial governments to "match" while at other times they will want them in opposition.  Context is everything.

One of the dynamics specific to the next federal election is economic recovery from the pandemic. A priority for Quebecers, and likely citizens from across Canada as well as provincial governments, will be maximizing the financial support received from the federal government to support the middle-class.

 

melovesproles

Pondering wrote:

It isn't that Liberals will say it, it's that it is true. 

That's what Liberals repeatedly said in 2006 and 2008 and Canadians blamed the NDP by rewarding them with more and more seats. That's the truth.

Pondering wrote:

One of the dynamics specific to the next federal election is economic recovery from the pandemic.

I know a lot of people who would not have qualified for the CERB as the Liberals envisioned it before the NDP improvements. I agree that the Liberals will throw bones to the middle class but most Canadians are not middle class.

This minority government has included social spending that was unheard of during Liberal majorities. The right of the Liberal party has been reduced to whinging about spending and they haven't been able buy any pipelines.

Let's look at what a Majority Liberal Government Finance Minister thinks about this Minority dependent on NDP support:

Former finance minister says he'll be looking for fiscal anchor in upcoming budget

Former finance minister John Manley says he'll be looking to see if the federal government proposes a new fiscal "anchor" in the upcoming budget.

The federal government is set to unveil its first budget in more than two years on April 19, Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said in the House of Commons on Tuesday.

Before the pandemic struck, the federal government was committed to maintaining a low debt-to-GDP ratio as a fiscal anchor — a benchmark to serve as a theoretical cap on spending and deficits — but has since been reluctant to commit to a new one.

"There are some key things that I'm looking for," Manley told Catherine Cullen on Power & Politics. "Will the minister establish a fiscal anchor?"

That's who will be influencing a Liberal majority. They will have much less sway if the Liberals need the NDP to pass anything.

Pondering

All the Liberals have to do to pass anything is to make it a vote of confidence. Then the NDP will have to decide if they want to trigger an election a few weeks after we just had one. If they do the Liberals will be fine with it as they would then walk away with a majority because Canadians would not be happy about having more than one federal election within months not to mention the NDP couldn't afford to run back to back campaigns.

melovesproles

Pondering, I really hope you are right on this one and the Liberals go back to the Paul Martin/Michael Ignatieff playbook, whining about how they are entitled to NDP support and going on a multi-year tantrum when they don't get it. That would be amazing.

If the Liberals want NDP support, they will have to pass things NDP voters like as they did in this minority government. The question is, how long will their fiscally conservative backers let them do that?

Pondering

melovesproles wrote:

Pondering, I really hope you are right on this one and the Liberals go back to the Paul Martin/Michael Ignatieff playbook, whining about how they are entitled to NDP support and going on a multi-year tantrum when they don't get it. That would be amazing.

If the Liberals want NDP support, they will have to pass things NDP voters like as they did in this minority government. The question is, how long will their fiscally conservative backers let them do that?

The Liberals gave the NDP some small "wins" which were probably built into their plan as something to give the NDP so the NDP could save face. It's not like the NDP made them follow through on their campaign promises on clean water or housing or pharmacare. They aren't pushing on basic income even though Liberal MPs and delegates are in favor. 

melovesproles

The Liberals gave the NDP some small "wins" which were probably built into their plan as something to give the NDP so the NDP could save face.

If the Liberals are having to build in NDP asks into their plans, it's already a win for NDP voters. When they have a majority, Liberals are preoccupied with what Conservatives want: like buying pipelines and gutting social programs. 

I'm willing to take you on your word that you are not a Liberal but you sure like repeating their spin on everything as if it is an objective fact. You still haven't explained how Canadian voters "blamed the NDP" for causing the 2006 election by voting for more NDP MPs. I really really want to know how that works.

Pondering

melovesproles wrote:

The Liberals gave the NDP some small "wins" which were probably built into their plan as something to give the NDP so the NDP could save face.

If the Liberals are having to build in NDP asks into their plans, it's already a win for NDP voters. When they have a majority, Liberals are preoccupied with what Conservatives want: like buying pipelines and gutting social programs. 

I'm willing to take you on your word that you are not a Liberal but you sure like repeating their spin on everything as if it is an objective fact. You still haven't explained how Canadian voters "blamed the NDP" for causing the 2006 election by voting for more NDP MPs. I really really want to know how that works.

Well if you really really want to know I will explain it to you. That was the election Jack Layton screwed over Canadians depriving us of a national daycare program in exchange for extra seats.

In 2005, it was then NDP leader Jack Layton’s decision to pull the plug on Paul Martin’s minority Liberal government that helped kill the closest thing Canada has ever had to a national child care system.

Martin too promised a cross-country program based on the Quebec model. During the final months of his struggling government, he even managed to get all 10 provinces onside with his $5 billion, five-year plan.

But then the NDP, Conservatives and Bloc Québécois joined forces to defeat the Liberals.

But the NDP won more seats so yay, that made up for it.  At the time Martin was facing the sponsorship scandal so Canadians didn't punish the NDP. Sometimes Canadians want an election or don't mind one. Martin almost did win that election except Canadians were fooled by Harper and his promises of transparency and fiscal prudence. Also, there was no pandemic at the time. 

Then followed the dark years for the Liberals because having torn the pary asunder trying to replace a winning PM they lost both their front runners and left themselves with Ignatieff and Rae both rejected by the rank and file for Dion. They overthrew Dion rather than let him team up with Layton, the executive replacing him with Ignatieff who went on to lose the next election. After that they tried imposing Rae which failed and led to the rise of Trudeau. 

Were it not for Trudeau Mulcair might have won that election becoming the first NDP PM then the NDP would have moved solidly to the right as Mulcair promised balanced budgets every year of his reign.

Right now Canadians don't want an election just to end up with close to the same result. If the Liberals were to call an election now they would be blamed and maybe punished for it with another minority.  By fall people will probably be okay with another federal election so if the NDP caused the Liberals to fall then there would not be any or as much negative feedback.  The Liberals might even call it themselves. 

It is unfair that only the NDP gets blamed if a Liberal government falls, and that only the Liberals get blamed if a Conservative government falls, and that the Conservatives never get blamed unless they are in power and call an election on themselves. 

It does not matter at all whether someone is a supporter of the Liberals, the NDP, or the Conservatives, or Greens, or whatever, to whether or not their arguments are sound. 

kropotkin1951

melovesproles wrote:

I'm willing to take you on your word that you are not a Liberal but you sure like repeating their spin on everything as if it is an objective fact. You still haven't explained how Canadian voters "blamed the NDP" for causing the 2006 election by voting for more NDP MPs. I really really want to know how that works.

She proved your point about Liberal talking points with the very next post. Spin, spin, spin.

 

Pondering

kropotkin1951 wrote:

melovesproles wrote:

I'm willing to take you on your word that you are not a Liberal but you sure like repeating their spin on everything as if it is an objective fact. You still haven't explained how Canadian voters "blamed the NDP" for causing the 2006 election by voting for more NDP MPs. I really really want to know how that works.

She proved your point about Liberal talking points with the very next post. Spin, spin, spin.

https://thewalrus.ca/fake-left-go-right/

Inside the NDP, the move was divisive. By voting day, it had created a veritable chasm within the broader left community. The federal election “badly tested the relationship” between social movements and the NDP, wrote Canadian Auto Workers economist Jim Stanford in the Globe and Mail a few days after Harper’s victory. “NDP strategists precipitated the election, sensing a moment of opportunity to win more seats. But their decision was made over the explicit objection of many progressive movements. They had used the Liberals’ fragile minority position to extract impressive, important gains (child care, new legal protections for workers, the aboriginal deal, and others); they wanted to solidify those victories, and win new ones.” Leaders from these progressive constituencies “all wanted the election later, not sooner.”...

Is that the part you are referring to as spin? 

It doesn't matter how many times I call the Liberals assholes any criticism of the NDP leads to accusations of being Liberal. 

I don't like the situation at all but I am not going to pretend. I get accused of being a cheerleader for the Liberals, although I don't know how you can interpret calling them assholes as cheerleading. 

Is the the part where I say the Liberals, not the NDP, always get blamed if a Conservative minority falls? Is that the part that is "spin". 

You can close your eyes and sing lalala with your fingers in your ears but it will not change reality.

Pondering

In the latest episode of CTV News’ podcast Trend Line, Nanos Research's Nik Nanos said that with polling showing the Liberals approximately 10 points ahead of the Conservatives, “it’s like they’re a majority government,” and aren’t necessarily as afraid of an election should they lose the key confidence vote coming out of the budget. 

That’s something the NDP have already signalled won’t happen under their watch, given the state of the pandemic. 

“The Liberals are probably going to have what I would call a very progressively muscular budget... So I think there's going to be a very interesting dynamic and, you know, the Liberals are going to probably present a budget that's going to be like a budget that's presented by a majority government, that doesn't have any worries about being defeated, or going to the polls,” Nanos said.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/pm-talking-to-opposition-leaders-ahead-o...

NorthReport
NorthReport
NorthReport
kropotkin1951

NorthReport wrote:
The truth hurts! https://thetyee.ca/News/2021/04/16/BC-Provides-30-Million-Wetsuweten-Lak...

WTF do you mean. This is another good example of the Canadian problem solving. Get everyone talking very, very slowly until the resources are all allocated.

The Wet’suwet’en Nation, which negotiated a memorandum of understanding with the provincial and federal governments in February 2020 aimed at moving toward recognition of rights and title, will receive $7.2 million over three years.

The 2020 agreement was signed after a bitter conflict between Wet’suwet’en hereditary chiefs and the province over the Coastal GasLink pipeline being built in their territory.

Wet’suwet’en Hereditary Chief Woos, Frank Alec, welcomed the funding announcement.

But he blamed the federal government — and not the pandemic — for the “snail’s pace” of negotiations over the past year.

“That’s no excuse,” he said. “They’ve got Zoom and all that technology. I wouldn’t use the pandemic as an excuse.”

The funding will allow the nation to engage at a government-to-government level, Woos said, and marks a “small step” in the decades-long process of defining the nation’s rights and title.

“We’ve got a huge land base and a mass of people that must be included as well,” he added.

NorthReport

NDPers support Singh agenda, Liberals rattle election sabres

 

 

https://rabble.ca/news/2021/04/ndpers-support-singh-agenda-liberals-ratt...

NorthReport
NorthReport

Under these right-wing governments, no matter what, the rich always get richer .

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-canadian-tire-and-lobla...

NDPP
NDPP

How Canada's federal budget affects benefits, taxes and the minimum wage/

https://globalnews.ca/news/7764150/canada-budget-2021-benefits-taxes-min...

"The Trudeau government's first budget since 2019 runs a whopping 724 pages. Here are some of the highlights..."

kropotkin1951

This analysis is very interesting. I love looking at polling that sets out second choices because that is where the real election battle takes place. The main thrust is meant to show why the Liberal's will be running against the NDP and Greens in the next election and not worrying about the Cons.

However in the data I found a interesting number that the article did not highlight. That is the potential volatility in Quebec. The highest number of undecided voters as a second choice is amongst Bloc voters. If the Bloc loses its edge no one knows where the vote will go. I suspect that many of these voters would have been part of the Orange Crush the last time the Bloc vote collapsed. However that was with Quebec born Jack at the helm not a brown man in a turban.

According to the IRG survey, only 12% of current Liberal supporters said their second choice was the Conservatives.

But the pool of possible Liberal-NDP switchers is three times larger. According to IRG’s data, 36% of Liberal supporters said if they switched to their second choice, they’d be voting for Singh’s NDP.

The market-leading company in our analogy would surely worry more about the competitor – even if it was smaller – that could walk away with 36% of its customers, rather than a bigger one that could only take 12% of them.

https://pressprogress.ca/what-the-federal-budget-tells-us-about-the-libe...

NorthReport

 

Doesn't look good!

IN HER WORDS: The woman behind 2018 Vance allegation tells her story

 

https://globalnews.ca/news/7776784/canadian-military-sexual-misconduct-v...

NorthReport

Liberals losing support in latest polling

Pondering

The day to day polls don't matter but those second choices are very interesting as well as the analysis. It seems the Liberals know that the Conservatives are not a threat therefore they have to prevent defections to the NDP. The NDP would do well to highlight BC's NDP and Greens working together to represent the will of the people. Singh should be loud and clear that as long as the Liberals and NDP win the majority of seats together he would work with the Liberals to ensure that they form government. 

NorthReport

Ottawa falls flat while housing prices take to the sky

https://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/douglas-todd-ottawa-falls-fl...

NorthReport
NorthReport
NorthReport

Why doesn't the CBC do an analysis of how many Canadians have died because Ottawa has keep the airports open instead of closing them to non-essential travel since Covid-19 began?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/covid-19-ontario-long-term-care-c...

NorthReport
NorthReport

 

NDP now at 20% while Liberals drop 

Judging the Budget: Just over half say it’s “more good than bad”; near-even split over size of deficit spend

 

 Just over half say it’s “more good than bad”; near-even split over size of deficit spend

NorthReport
NorthReport

Liberals only belive in democracy when it is to their advantage. Strange dat!

https://financialpost.com/diane-francis/diane-francis-with-more-seats-th...

NorthReport
NorthReport

The Canada Infrastructure Bank Is a Subsidy Scheme For Big Business

https://jacobinmag.com/2021/04/canada-infrastructure-bank-cib-justin-tru...

NorthReport
NorthReport

Precisely.

Burnaby MP Jagmeet Singh got the AstraZeneca jab and so should you

This is real leadership

 

https://www.burnabynow.com/local-news/opinion-burnaby-mp-jagmeet-singh-g...

Pondering

NorthReport wrote:

Precisely.

Burnaby MP Jagmeet Singh got the AstraZeneca jab and so should you

This is real leadership

 

https://www.burnabynow.com/local-news/opinion-burnaby-mp-jagmeet-singh-g...

So did Truedeau. 

NorthReport

Canada should back U.S. efforts to reject austerity and the trickle-down scam

 Meme Generator

There's an iconic photo that shows Ronald Reagan and a bunch of his Republican cronies buckled over, laughing uproariously. Who knows what they found so funny -- maybe President Reagan just burped or George H.W. Bush did an armpit fart. Whatever.

But some wag turned the photo into a legend with the caption: "And then we told them the wealth would trickle down!"

Could it be that this knee-slapper is finally wearing thin, that the public is sick and tired of the trickle-down scam?

To the surprise of many, the mild-mannered U.S. President Joe Biden is making a daring bid to overturn much of the mean-spirited conservative economic agenda that's dominated America -- and the world -- since Reagan's presidency in the 1980s.

"Trickle-down has never worked," declared Biden in his address to Congress last week, as he rolled out a massive agenda that would drive a hole through the heart of Reaganomics and its small-government fetish (at least when it comes to government helping ordinary people).

Biden wants to spend $6 trillion on things that would significantly improve the lives of regular Americans -- family benefits, paid medical leave, free preschool and community college, infrastructure and green new jobs, enhanced rights for workers.

And he wants to pay for it by raising taxes on corporations and other high-fliers last seen buckled over laughing at how massively they've swindled the American people.

Of course, Biden faces huge obstacles getting his plans through both houses of Congress; it's quite possible he won't succeed. Still, his willingness to directly challenge long-held dogma is invigorating -- and likely to change the debate.

That could help Canada also break free of the suffocating effects of Reaganomics (or neoliberalism) with its agenda of austerity for the masses and tax breaks for those at the top.

Certainly, Biden's endorsement of bigger government makes it easier for Justin Trudeau to proceed with his recently announced national child-care plan. Canada's deficit hawks won't have their usual clout now that our largest trading partner has stopped preaching austerity and small government.

Trudeau has shown some spine against the deficit hawks, but he has been timid about joining Biden's campaign to tax the wealthy. (Trudeau's new luxury tax is a nothing-burger compared to Biden's proposed tax hike on capital gains held by the super-rich.)

Too bad. We could sure use the money to pay for needed programs. Besides, when nations co-operate, corporations have a hard time playing us off against each other in pushing for ever-lower taxes.

That's why Canada should be backing Biden's effort to clamp down on corporate tax havens, which deprive governments around the world of US$245 billion a year in desperately needed revenue, according to Tax Justice Network.

In a potentially game-changing move, Biden is trying to enlist major nations (through the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) to support a global minimum tax, which corporations would be required to pay on their worldwide income, regardless of whether it was reported in a tax haven.

Washington is proposing a minimum rate of 21 per cent. So if a U.S. corporation reports income in a country where the corporate tax rate is 5 per cent, Washington would impose an additional tax to bring that corporation's tax rate up to 21 per cent. This would mean much higher taxes for corporate giants -- Amazon, Facebook, Google, etc. -- that make extensive use of tax havens.

International tax expert Gabriel Zucman says that if other countries follow the U.S. in policing their corporations this way "it's the end of tax havens."

Germany and France have pledged support for Biden's corporate minimum tax -- but not Canada.

Trudeau said he's open to the idea, but declined to commit to it, insisting instead that Canada will always ensure its taxes are competitive with other nations. This kind of tax competition is exactly what Biden's global minimum corporate tax is designed to avoid.

Over the years, Canada has far too often bowed to Washington, which typically lines up behind corporate interests.

How maddening that we're showing a rare streak of independence when Washington is finally cracking down on corporate misconduct and actively pushing to rid the world of the scourge of tax havens.

Linda McQuaig is a journalist and author of The Sport & Prey of Capitalists: How the Rich are Stealing Canada's Public Wealth. This column originally appeared in the Toronto Star.

https://rabble.ca/columnists/2021/05/canada-should-back-us-efforts-rejec...

NorthReport

Pathetic to see the Trudeau Liberals dragging their ass on helping less affluent countries in their fight against the pandemic

https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/politics/canada-inches-closer-to-waiving-i...

NorthReport
NorthReport

Reconciliation means rethinking parks governance

 

https://www.straight.com/news/david-suzuki-reconciliation-means-rethinki...

NorthReport
NorthReport
Pondering

The regional picture

The Liberals lead by roughly eight points in Quebec, 12 points in Ontario and 20 points in Atlantic Canada. Alone, these three regions could put them only a dozen seats short of a majority government. British Columbia, where the Liberals hold a narrow lead in a three-way race, could be enough to put them over the top. The Conservatives lead only in Alberta, Saskatchewan and (narrowly) Manitoba. Both the NDP and the Greens have their highest support in B.C., while the Bloc's support in Quebec has been slowly declining over the last year.

https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/poll-tracker/canada/

 

josh

Friends, I'm announcing that I'm seeking the NDP nomination for West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea to Sky Country. We're in a unique moment with the opportunity to fix the overlapping crises we face but only if we do it together, for the many, not the few

https://twitter.com/avilewis/status/1394319269203222529?s=20

laine lowe laine lowe's picture

When did Avi Lewis move from Toronto to Vancouver? It is not surprising and it's an asset for the NDP.

NorthReport

Uh Oh!

Trouble in Liberal paradise once again?

Maybe working class Canadians have gotten tired of the federal Liberal's hypocrisy of attacking the provinces covid management while the Trudeau Liberals secretly have keep Canada's airports open for traveling by Canada's elites

https://abacusdata.ca/liberals-conservatives-neck-and-neck-poll-canadian...

NorthReport

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