Canada's Next Federal Election

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Debater

josh wrote:

Jody Wilson-Raybould will not be running for re-election in Vancouver Granville.

https://twitter.com/EricGrenierTW/status/1413133641991995394?s=20

 

Wilson-Raybould's departure probably gives the Liberals a good chance of winning back Vancouver Granville, but I still think the Liberals are most likely looking at another Minority.

Pondering

Interesting commentary by John Ivison

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/john-ivison-tories-across-the-nation-co...

It is entirely possible that it is a strong NDP showing that deprives Trudeau of his majority – a result that many Conservatives would privately consider a victory.

The only certainty at this point is that all the parties are flying blind when it comes to the real mood in the country. Are buoyant Liberal polling numbers based on post-pandemic euphoria that might go flat, like Champagne left out overnight? Or has Trudeau tapped into the spirit of the times, a development that might threaten the Conservatives’ status as the Official Opposition in the House of Commons?

Yes Trudeau has tapped into the spirit of the times but in an empty virtue signaling way. What I find most interesting is that he thinks the NDP could threaten the Conservatives position as official opposition. I have seen that coming for a long while but I didn't think for this election. If it could happen that would be great. This would be quite different from the NDP replacing the Liberals as official opposition to the Conservatives. 

In that case it was a shifting of votes between the Liberals and NDP.  That's happening too of course but the Conservatives dropping to third place, if it were to happen, would illustrate a shift to the left of the population in general. 

He refers to what Trudeau has tapped into, and that is so. He has tapped into concerns over climate change and income inequality which is also why people are shifting away from the Conservatives and towards the Liberals and NDP. 

People are not at all ready for O'Toole's messaging of fiscal prudence and a redesigned carbon pricing plan that is more market friendly.  After this summer of heat, which has barely begun, people are finally getting scared. 

jerrym

Abacus Poll      Approval       Disapproval

Trudeau              40%                39% (+1%)

Singh                  38%                 26% (+12%)

O'Toole               20%              40%  (-20%)

On Power and Politics, David Coletto of Abacus said Singh has 60% approval among young voters. 

Comparing the three leaders shows that Mr. Singh has a nine-point advantage on good values over Mr. Trudeau, who is 10 points ahead of Mr. O’Toole. Both Trudeau and Singh are widely seen as optimists and modern, but voters are not sure if Mr. O’Toole is an optimist and tend to think he is not very modern.

Trudeau and Singh are relatively competitive in terms of being interesting. Singh has a 10-point advantage on “great ideas”, “gets people like me”.

Mr. O’Toole’s biggest vulnerabilities are a sense that he doesn’t have very appealing ideas, doesn’t really get the majority of voters, and hasn’t seemed interesting thus far.

If we concentrate our analysis on those who say they will definitely vote but haven’t yet made up their mind how they will vote, the data also show a modest advantage for Mr. Singh over Mr. Trudeau, both of whom are better positioned than Mr. O’Toole.

Mr. Trudeau’s biggest gaps relative to Mr. Singh are on “great ideas” and “gets people like me” where the NDP leader is ahead by at least 15 points. ...

Mr. O’Toole is competitive with Mr. Trudeau on “gets people like me” “great ideas” but neither scores very well with these voters. Mr. O’Toole’s biggest gaps behind Mr. Trudeau are on “modern”, “interesting” and “optimist”. ...

One of the more interesting voter segments we have been watching lately is women under the age of 30. Among these voters, Mr. Trudeau’s trails Mr. Singh by as many as 30 points on several of these traits.

The Conservative Party has often faced a challenge connecting with this demographic and these results suggest this remains the case. ...

According to Bruce Anderson: “While overall voting intentions do not at this point signal a breakthrough for the NDP, these numbers suggest that one of the variables that can make a party more competitive – a popular leader – is something the NDP has right now.

For the Liberals, the data suggest some negatives have accumulated over the years Mr. Trudeau has been in power but there remains a reasonably robust amount of positive opinion towards the Prime Minister – and quite a bit more favourable impressions that those that exist for Conservative leader O’Toole.

For Mr. O’Toole, while impressions of leaders can change a lot during the course of the campaign, this would need to happen in order for the Conservatives to improve their competitiveness with the Liberals. In some respects, the numbers for Mr. O’Toole reflect a view of the party he leads more than he himself, but if his intention was to present himself as a different kind of Conservative leader, this project is not succeeding so far....

According to David Coletto: “How we feel about a party’s leader is one of the most important factors in determining how we might vote. In 2011, Jack Layton convinced many of those who identified as Liberal to vote NDP thanks to their affinity for him and their dislike for Mr. Ignatieff. In 2015, Mr. Trudeau re-established Liberal support due to the optimism, change, and hope he offered and the excitement many voters had for what he stood for.

As we head towards a likely summer election call, our survey data suggest that Jagmeet Singh will start the campaign in a very strong position. He has a solid image built on a sense that he is modern, in touch with voters, and an optimist. His net favourables are the best of any federal leader at the moment.

Mr. O’Toole faces the opposite scenario. He has as many people who dislike him as Mr. Trudeau but half as many who like him. He’s seen as out of touch, old-fashioned, and lacking both charisma and good ideas. Both aren’t necessary to win but usually, a successful candidate has at least one to offer voters. ...

Prime Minister Trudeau would start a 2021 campaign in a stronger position than in 2019. More people like him now than back then and the contrasts with Mr. O’Toole are even sharper than they were with Mr. Scheer. Although fewer people are angry and strongly dislike him, 2021 isn’t 2015 as Mr. Trudeau has few supporters with a deep affinity for him to count on. His road to re-election is built on general satisfaction with his performance and a dislike for his chief alternative, Mr. O’Toole.

https://abacusdata.ca/party-leaders-canada-abacus-july-2021/

Pondering

Thanks Jerry. That was all very interesting. 

Mr. O’Toole’s biggest vulnerabilities are a sense that he doesn’t have very appealing ideas, doesn’t really get the majority of voters, and hasn’t seemed interesting thus far....

 

For Mr. O’Toole, while impressions of leaders can change a lot during the course of the campaign, this would need to happen in order for the Conservatives to improve their competitiveness with the Liberals. In some respects, the numbers for Mr. O’Toole reflect a view of the party he leads more than he himself, but if his intention was to present himself as a different kind of Conservative leader, this project is not succeeding so far....

So, voters think the Conservative party is uninteresting, doesn't get the majority of voters, and doesn't have appealing ideas. 

Sounds about right. 

laine lowe laine lowe's picture

On Facebook, there's a bit of a rumour that Harper is considering re-entering federal politics because of O'Toole's poor performance. Gaia help us.

Pondering

Harper lost his last election. He can't save them. The social conservatives won't trust him again. 

kropotkin1951

If he calls an election I hope that people follow him around and toss teddy bears at him in disgust. I am hoping that the internal polls are telling them it is a waste of time and money because the elusive majority is just not going to happen. The CERB benefits are scheduled to be massively reduced for those workers still covered by it. If they are cut in July as announced in the budget, I am sure it is a good NDP election issue right through the fall.

jerrym

kropotkin1951 wrote:

If he calls an election I hope that people follow him around and toss teddy bears at him in disgust. I am hoping that the internal polls are telling them it is a waste of time and money because the elusive majority is just not going to happen. The CERB benefits are scheduled to be massively reduced for those workers still covered by it. If they are cut in July as announced in the budget, I am sure it is a good NDP election issue right through the fall.

The Liberals are a lot of things and are great at speaking out of both sides of their mouths, but they are not fools and are likely to delay any such cuts to after the election if need be. 

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Stephen Harper?  America is dealing with an aggreessive outbreak of political herpes. I don't want that crisis up here.

nicky

New Angus Reid shows Libs narrowly ahead 33 to 31 with NDP at 20. Greens tanking at 3%.

Singh by far the most popular leader.

Some indications that Lib vote is soft:

Only 19% of Lib voters would be enthusiastic if Libs got a majority.

Trudeau's disapproval rate is 56 to 41 but remarkable feature is that only 9% strongly approves of him while 39% strongly disapproves.

nicky

New Angus Reid shows Libs narrowly ahead 33 to 31 with NDP at 20. Greens tanking at 3%.

Singh by far the most popular leader.

Some indications that Lib vote is soft:

Only 19% of Lib voters would be enthusiastic if Libs got a majority.

Trudeau's disapproval rate is 56 to 41 but remarkable feature is that only 9% strongly approves of him while 39% strongly disapproves.

nicky
bekayne

nicky wrote:

It seems there is anew EKOS coming soon which may show the NDP ahead of the Cons.

https://www.facebook.com/alicefunke?__cft__%5B0%5D=AZV5VN9C_EVsI8tCfW28df5Lzoi5m73j10dMcz92BqYB5JZ4rvc8Cxt13aggYyNOYy8TYLvI549k_v7PhfEVWoyyr0Za74QHDSQvfMu9cwpLEdmiwveNlVMLUq8kgQ09s2U&__tn__=-UC%2CP-R

The info is hidden from non-"friends"

nicky

Sorry Bekayne.

Here are two tweets from Frank Graves hinting at what the upcoming EKOS will show. I hope both are right.

"Have GP support half of what it was 60 days ago . Meltdown"

"I have NDP insignificantly ahead and CPC at lowest levels I have seen in over 20 years."

 

kropotkin1951

I was thinking this morning of the difference between the one party system in China and Canada's democracy. In China they have over 90 million people dedicated to carrying out the programs they have agreed upon, to the exclusion of all other viewpoints. If any citizen wants to be involved in public policy they apply to join the party and they might get accepted depending on their background and education. If you don't get accepted they get to join one of the half a dozen parties that have no power but are advisory to the CPC. The CPC does extensive in depth polling and claims it is acting both in the best interests of the people but also are guided by the people. Of course spin is spin when it comes to governments but that is theirs. I am fascinated to see that while we are being overwhelmed by media and tech billionaires the Chinese government is instituting tough anti-trust and anti-monopoly laws, to ensure a functioning market economy with proper competition to protect consumers. They do seem to be trying to build a market economy to provide prosperity to their people.

In Canada we also have a small number of citizens involved in political parties but they are divided into teams. So if you want to be engaged in public policy you first have to join a party and find one of their candidates that shares your views or become a candidate and then spend years trying to get elected. Once elected the priority then becomes being re-elected.

The biggest irony is that in the face of our major problems the political parties in Canada are all concentrating on an election because the Liberal government wants to wield dictatorial powers for a minimum of four years.  Canadian's say that China's government, by only one party, is wrong but in Canada it is the holy grail, in four year segments.

That is the focus, not climate chaos or housing or public health or pharma-care  but will the Liberals get to rule unopposed. The kicker is that once elected the Liberals in majority seldom deliver on any of the ideas they campaigned on.

When one thinks about it, for a citizen to have a say in public policy, Western liberal democracy is a demonstrably superior system. Anyone who agrees is likely to want to buy a condo from Trump.

Debater

nicky wrote:

Sorry Bekayne.

Here are two tweets from Frank Graves hinting at what the upcoming EKOS will show. I hope both are right.

"Have GP support half of what it was 60 days ago . Meltdown"

"I have NDP insignificantly ahead and CPC at lowest levels I have seen in over 20 years."

 

Sounds like an interesting poll, although EKOS/Frank Graves sometimes underestimates Conservative support (as Angus Reid often underestimates Liberal support).

Pondering

Angus Reid always pumps the Cons unless we are on the eve of the election when they fix they numbers to get them closer to reality. I don't find the EKOs polls nearly as biased. 

There is no way that the Conservatives and Liberals are neck and neck especially with the NDP only at 20. O'Toole didn't suddenly get popular. 

josh

The riding is important to the NDP because it can “reflect national NDP performance,” MacEwen, who ran for the NDP in Ottawa West—Nepean in the last election, told iPolitics on Wednesday.

https://ipolitics.ca/2021/07/22/the-ndp-needs-to-win-ottawa-centre-heres-its-plan/

Debater

O’Toole gave supporters and other party insiders taxpayer-funded contracts

By David Akin

July 22

Individuals and entities connected with O'Toole's leadership campaign won $237,00 worth of taxpayer-funded contracts from O'Toole's office during his first six months in office.

https://globalnews.ca/news/8053232/otoole-supporters-party-insiders-taxpayer-funded-contracts/

NDPP

State Actors Could Use Blackmail, Threats to Influence Voters, Politicians in the Next Election, CSIS Warns

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/csis-foreign-interfere-1.6112986

"CSIS Director Vigneault has warned that China and Russia are Canada's two main antagonists when it comes to foreign influence operations. Report comes as Ottawa prepares for a widely anticipated election in the coming weeks..."

 Which anti-Russia, anti-China, pro-Israel, pro-NATO, rules-based-international warmongers' party would they 'meddle' for? Pure bs propaganda which none of your 'choices' will disabuse you of either. Here's what you will really be voting for...

The New Cold War and the Hegemony of Global Capitalism

https://canadiandimension.com/articles/view/the-new-cold-war-and-the-heg...

"A double-barrelled 'new cold war' is on, with the US-led empire of capital on one side and its rivals, China and Russia, on the other. The Canadian ruling class has enthusiastically enlisted to fight alongside its American partners. This camp has been the primary instigators of tensions with both countries that could culminate in a disastrous war between major world powers..."

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