Canada's Next Federal Election

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NorthReport

Please Advise! Canada Got Dumped for... Norway?

Yes, the global mean girls turned on Justin Trudeau. But don’t they always?

https://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2020/06/20/Canada-Dumped-For-Norway/

NorthReport
NorthReport

When it comes to systemic racism, history belies your words, Mr. Legault

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/montreal/systemic-racism-quebec-historian-1.5608397

NorthReport
NorthReport

Op-ed: Conservative party leadership race headed for a crash

It's looking more like the party is destined for a mutiny – whoever wins the leadership

https://nowtoronto.com/news/conservative-party-leadership-peter-mackay-erin-otoole/

NorthReport
NorthReport

The political mastery of Singh’s dramatic House stand

By ERICA IFILL      JUNE 24, 2020

We’ve never had any leader treat our needs with that level of respect, much less risk their reputation for us. And there’s not enough Budget 2020 money that can overcome that impression. 

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, pictured April 29. Singh has played the role of a model minority well. Until last week, that is, writes Erica Ifill. The Hill Times photograph by Andrew Meade

https://www.hilltimes.com/2020/06/24/the-political-mastery-of-singhs-dramatic-house-stand/254027

NorthReport

Bingo!

Canadian Media Is Exhaustingly Predictable,’ but Olamide Olaniyan Has the Tiniest Hope

Tyee’s editorial assistant on what needs to change.

 

Election time often means rolling out the same old worn-out perspectives to tell us what’s going on from on high, but Olaniyan sought out diverse writers and stuffed each issue with diverse perspectives. His goal, quite simply, was to dodge the “insider baseball” of Ottawa-centric political junkies.

In this episode, which you can watch above, host Emma Cooper highlighted a tweet Olaniyan made after NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh was expelled from the House of Commons for calling a Bloc Québécois MP racist and for refusing to apologize and withdraw his comments.

 

Olamide Olaniyan

@olapalooza

we're about to have a 48 hr news cycle debating whether you can call a person racist aren't we

It garnered many likes.

“Canadian media is kind of exhaustingly predictable,” said Olaniyan. “Rather than talking about why he called the person a racist, or what the actual motion was about… [this] was the big ‘what happened’: that Jagmeet Singh called a Bloc Québécois MP something like a slur.”

Olaniyan is tired of this framing.

“A lot of people prefer to talk about whether racism exists,” he said. “We’ve had that conversation so many times, we’re just waiting for everyone to catch up.”

He warns that leaning into this status quo means failing to serve readers and harming a publication’s reputation. Often, the last-resort way for brave staff to raise alarms is by open “revolt,” recent cases of which can be seen at home at the Vancouver Sun and the ProvinceNational Post, the Globe and Mail, the New York Times, the Philadelphia Inquirer, the Pittsburgh Post Gazette, the Tennessean and probably more than we’re able to mention.

https://thetyee.ca/Tyeenews/2020/06/25/Three-Things-Summary-Ola-Olaniyan/

NorthReport
NorthReport
Aristotleded24

Is the opposition about to snap?

Quote:
Opposition parties are ratcheting up their calls for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Finance Minister Bill Morneau to resign, with the Conservatives and Bloc Quebecois saying that the Liberals could be facing a fall election, if actions beyond their apologies over their roles in the WE Charity controversy aren’t taken.

In a new statement in French Friday afternoon, Bloc Quebecois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet said that in light of the ongoing developments in the WE Charity controversy, and what he called a betrayal of Canadians’ trust that Trudeau and Morneau have demonstrated, it’s time for them both to go.

If not, his party plans to consult Quebecers about possibly tabling a motion of non-confidence when the House of Commons resumes in late September. Because the Liberals are currently governing with a minority, their government could be toppled if they lose a confidence vote.

...

While the ballots are still being cast to name the next federal Conservative leader, perceived front-runners Erin O’Toole and Peter MacKay have both expressed their outrage over the affair and have committed to holding the Trudeau Liberals to account if they are elected.

Are the Conservatives that stupid to engage in such an act of self-immolation as that? Sure the WE scandal is atrotious and should not have happened. I honestly don't think that issue will gain any traction. It seems across the country, voters have one thing on their minds: when and how are we going to get out of this pandemic? Never mind the optics of trying to force an election with rallies and line-ups to vote, despite assurances that everything will be safe. I think voters would punish any party seen as responsible for an election during a pandemic. In addition, can anybody tell me what the Conservatives want to do about it? The NDP arm-twisted the Liberals into giving CERB, and the Bloc did likewise for disability payments. Trudeau's popularity soared during the pandemic, you think  he's going to hesitate to remind people of that? This after the Conservatives failed to credibly go after the government for its mishandling of the crisis in the early days. Sure they have anti-China rhetoric, but Harper signed the free trade agreement with China, something the NDP would to very well to point out during a campaign stop. Even though he's a lame duck, the image of Scheer in the airport without a mask when authorities are asking (and in some cases mandating) that masks be worn in more places, won't look good for the party.

Pondering

What this means is it will be up to the NDP to save the government which they will have to do. Unreasonable demands or unwillingness to negotiate will hurt whichever party is seen to be responsible for the failure.

Neither the Conservatives nor the Bloc will pay because neither is expected to support the government. When the Conservatives are in power it is up to the Liberals to save them, when it is the Liberals in power it is up to the NDP

I expect the Conservatives want the NDP to do well to weaken the Liberals.   I don't think it will happen but there is a long shot the Conservatives could win if the NDP and Liberals really split the vote but that wouldn't be all bad either.

 

NorthReport

So Trudeau observing what has been happening to incumbents provincially, as well as Liberal internal polling, has now decided to play a game of chicken with the opposition parties, which could lead to a federal election being called this week. Who is going to blink first?

NorthReport

Trudeau dares opposition to force an election during pandemic

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-20/trudeau-dares-opposit...

Pondering

The oppostion dared Trudeau to refuse. He took the dare. He is governing as though he has a majority. Harper was the first to do it. 

“The Conservatives put forward a motion that clearly outlines their lack of confidence in the government,” Trudeau told reporters. “The opposition is going to have to decide if they want to make this minority parliament work or whether they have lost confidence in the government.”

Trudeau is right. If the Conservatives do not have confidence in the government the remedy is an election. If the opposition parties don't want to do that because they aren't ready for another election whose fault is that?

Canadians are stuck voting against parties instead of for a party. The least bad wins. That Liberals are the least bad option in the minds of voters says a lot. 

NorthReport

The more I see of Jagmeet the more I like the NDP.

Thank goodness we choose him as our leader as opposed to some of the flakes that were running against him

NDP plays adult in the room and prevents snap election

https://rabble.ca/news/2020/10/ndp-plays-adult-room-and-prevents-snap-el...

NorthReport

Jagmeet Singh prevented an unnecessary snap election. So why is everyone picking on him?

 

The leader of the NDP must wonder what it takes to get respect. You would think the man responsible for halting the putative “snap” election this past week would be a hero.

Instead, Jagmeet Singh — who held most of the political cards — is accused by pundits and some partisans of being a “lapdog” for the Liberals, of folding instead of fighting, and of not negotiating for his party in return for his support of the government. Singh would likely argue that he won concessions from the Liberal government over the speech from the throne, which included extra sick days and increased jobless benefits for workers.

Others will argue that he had no choice. He was caught between the Liberals and the Conservatives who each understand how to wield power like a flashing lightsaber. Both parties instinctively know when to slice and dice the Opposition, while decades of government experience has taught them about the privilege of prorogation, the tool of filibuster, the manipulation of parliamentary rules of procedure and the culture of Cabinet decision-making. The use of hard power is baked into their DNA, and it was on full display this week.

The NDP have never been handed the reins of the federal government, although they came close as Official Opposition under the late Jack Layton. But more often, through decades of minority Parliaments, they used their “soft power” as the progressive force which pushed both Liberal and Conservative governments to expand their policies. Lester Pearson used the NDP voice wisely over two minorities in the 1960s, as Parliament laid the groundwork for many of our social programs.

However, the NDP has problems. Singh’s personal polling numbers are low, and it is widely known that the party needs money. In fairness, Singh, a former Ontario MPP and a lawyer, still needs time to put his stamp on the party. Elected leader in 2017, he made history as the first racialized person to lead a federal party. (He is now joined in that regard by Annamie Paul, the new leader of the Green Party).

When the 2019 election approached, several senior NDP MPs decided not to run again. That lack of deep bench expertise may be one of the reasons that Singh appeared somewhat uncomfortable as the recent parliamentary drama swirled around him.

Yet, while hemmed in by political constraints, he managed to act with dignity during the latest fracas. He showed his disdain for the Conservative’s overreach by refusing to agree that extended members of the Trudeau family should be examined under the guise of a WE related “anti-corruption” committee — wording which the Liberals understandably found so “toxic” that they deemed it a confidence motion.

He was consistent and adamant that the time for political games and snap elections was absolutely not in the middle of a pandemic. He was also not without his own bite, noting that the prime minister should tell the truth if he wanted an election, rather than hiding behind opposition parties.

https://www.thestar.com/opinion/contributors/2020/10/25/jagmeet-singh-pr...

NorthReport
NorthReport

Comparing the by-election results last nite to the previous 2019 election, its a bad omen for the Liberals as they are down 4% in York Centre and down 15% in Toronto Centre. This probably puts an end to the idea of a pandemic election.

Ken Burch

They weren't great for the NDP, either.   In TC, their vote share dropped by over  5 percentage points, by over 4 percentage points-in a riding where they were already only in single digits in support- in York Centre- demonstrating that the federal NDP has still made no recovery from the 2019 result.

Singh has to go big and bold and transformative, and he has to do it soon...or the Dippers could lose even MORE seats next time-and if they do lose even more seats at the next election, it's an open question as to whether they could ever recover at any subsuquent election. 

Pondering

NorthReport wrote:
Paul Wells Is in a league by himself
">https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/i-think-this-parliament-is-broke...

Rempel Garner spent some time this weekend congratulating herself for doubling the time the motion would allot for production of this mountain range of documents. Instead of giving the government two weeks, she’s now pleased to give them a month. This gesture of farcical magnanimity is best understood as a kind of performance art. It’s like suggesting that somebody shove a Buick up his nose—but expecting to be congratulated for giving him an extra two weeks to do it....

That Erin O’Toole seconded Rempel Garner’s motion casts similar doubt on the new Conservative leader’s own judgment. That the other opposition parties have hitched their wagons to this Macy’s parade of a motion helps to explain why the Liberals rebound so smartly in the polls after each of their missteps: because an election is never a referendum on the incumbent but a choice among alternatives, and if none of the alternatives can even pretend to be serious then voters will simply send everyone back to their previous spots on the gameboard.

 Which is why there is no point in paying attention between elections. 

Paul is very obviously going for the NDP vote. She is moving the party left on basic income and national daycare and pushing hard on the diversity issue which will help her. Auto-NDP voters could easily decide to reward the Greens because no one expect the NDP to actually win anyway. People who are just looking for a more progressive could easily go Green as a message vote. 

That Paul managed to pull in 31% is pretty impressive even if it was just a by-election. 

Singh is going to have to push for more in the next budget and dare the Liberals to call an election.  They may end up losing seats, maybe not, but either way they are losing their identity unless it is to become Liberal lite.

kropotkin1951

Central Canadians are by and large climate change ostriches. It is not the NDP message, which was good enough to win them BC, it is the fact that the electorate is right of center. I want a new country that doesn't include anything east of the Coast Mountain Range because I share a world view with my neighbours but not other Canadians. I see no chance to elect a progressive government federally or provincially in Ontario because the people don't want to upset the status quo.

 

NorthReport

Such a defeatist and antagonistic attitude will guarantee that.

NorthReport

The Greens are cult-like, the people in charge are right-wing, and with May staying on as MP and the leader not even in Parliament, whose the boss, thd new boss or the old boss, the Greens are dead in the water. It does however create an opening for progressive Singh to represent working people against 3 or 4 right-wing parties in the next election

Pondering

Kropotkin, we live on one planet. BC can do nothing without Canada for climate change. As a country we could have an enormous impact on the world through negotiating progressive trade deals. If Canada proposed a truly progressive trade deal people in the EU would rise up in support. It is dreaming in technicolor? Of course. It is entirely unrealistic. Pie in the sky hope. But climate change is an emergency. To give up hope is to resign ourselves being doomed. We may be doomed no matter what we do but it is better than nothing. Aren't all revolutions unexpected to some extent? It is only in hindsight they are predictable. It takes people who won't take no for an answer and who will demand better. 

North Report, nonsense:

https://dimitrilascaris.org/2020/10/14/a-message-of-thanks-to-our-suppor...

Throughout our campaign, we put forward a boldly progressive platform – a platform unlike any that mainstream Canadian politics has seen. Despite the obstacles put in our way, we came within a hair’s breadth of winning, and did so by doing politics honourably.

We drew thousands of new members to the party. We raised the hard questions and answered them with thoughtfulness and integrity. We spoke from the heart. We spoke truth to power.

With your amazing support, we have begun to build a movement. 

In the days and weeks ahead, we will engage with Greens and other progressives to transform that movement into an unstoppable force of principled, progressive politics. 

We know with every fibre of our being that the time is now.

We warmly welcome your thoughts as to how to build upon the foundation we have laid in this campaign. Please feel free to share those thoughts with us by sending an email to [email protected].

It can be done if the effort is put in by enough people. 

NorthReport

We had better start shoring up the NDP as Trudeau doesn't seem to be cutting it

https://globalnews.ca/news/7434839/canada-political-fundraising-2020/

Pondering

NorthReport wrote:
We had better start shoring up the NDP as Trudeau doesn't seem to be cutting it
">https://globalnews.ca/news/7434839/canada-political-fundraising-2020/[/q...

As far as I recall the Liberals are always signficantly behind the Conservatives in fund-raising. As long as the Liberals raise enough to run a normal campaign they will win based on policy. The Conservatives usual approach of attacking the leader of the Liberals won't work this time. People won't be voting for Trudeau. They will be voting against O'Toole and for financial supports for business and people. 

NorthReport
kropotkin1951

Pondering wrote:

Kropotkin, we live on one planet. BC can do nothing without Canada for climate change. As a country we could have an enormous impact on the world through negotiating progressive trade deals.

That is my point. When are you and your neighbours going to elect progressive MP's. Do you really think we can wait for two or three election cycles as you've suggested?

I have been arguing against corporate trade agreements since I came on this board 18 years ago. Your belief in the ability of trade deals to save the environment is naive at best. We need less international goods flowing and more local infrastructure every where on the planet not new global trading networks.

NorthReport
NorthReport

Canada's elite will not be having any part of this. Maybe Singh should make this part of the bargain with Trudeau to keep him in power

https://www.nationalnewswatch.com/2020/11/04/ndp-to-put-wealth-tax-for-p...

NorthReport
Pondering

kropotkin1951 wrote:

Pondering wrote:

Kropotkin, we live on one planet. BC can do nothing without Canada for climate change. As a country we could have an enormous impact on the world through negotiating progressive trade deals.

That is my point. When are you and your neighbours going to elect progressive MP's. Do you really think we can wait for two or three election cycles as you've suggested?

I have been arguing against corporate trade agreements since I came on this board 18 years ago. Your belief in the ability of trade deals to save the environment is naive at best. We need less international goods flowing and more local infrastructure every where on the planet not new global trading networks.

Trade deals and eco-socialist governments are the only mechanisms I know of that could have an international impact significant enough to have an impact on emissions.  

Lascaris taking over the Green Party is a long shot. Even if we succeed in that getting him to the PM seat is a very long shot. I just don't see any other path that has any chance at all.

Vote NDP as the best of a bad lot but don't fool ourselves into thinking have an NDP PM would change things enough to have a significant impact on climate change. 

If Canada proposed changes to CETA for required emissions reductions and required worker protections and minimum taxation of corporations etc. activists in Europe would be galvanized. Once CETA was revised pressure could be applied to other countries. 

Pie in the sky? Maybe. But what is the alternative? We just going to sit around and wait for someone to figure something out? I think someone has figured it out and I don't see any downside in supporting his fight to gain control of the Green Party and put eco-socialism on the national stage. 

kropotkin1951

Pondering I have been trying to put eco-socialism on the public agenda now for 48 years since I first supported an NDP candidate who was a leader in the fight against acid rain. Please convince your friends and neighbours they should think the same way. My friends and neighbours and our progressive MP's that we send to Ottawa are waiting for you to get you collective shit together and do something except sit at keyboards and talk about change. Apparently you believe the troika will save us from capitalism and I think the Greeks experience with electing eco-socialists tells me change needs to be locally based.

In the meantime send some progressive MP's to Ottawa instead of right wing Liberals and Bloc MP's and lets see whether change through our political system is possible. It certainly is not when the people of Montreal and Toronto vote for the status quo parties.

melovesproles

To be fair, Quebec was ready to deliver an NDP government in 2011. It really was the southern Ontario left that wasn't on board even with a historically unappealing Liberal leader like Ignatieff at the helm. I think it might be a deeply embedded intergenerational family identification with the two big Corporate parties. The excuse that people won't vote NDP because of Bob Rae just isn't credible anymore.

melovesproles

But yeah I definitely agree about how the ecosocialist takeover of the Greens is a bunch of hot air at this point. If that is going to go anywhere, the energy should be on getting Lascaris a seat in Montreal. If the movement is unable to deliver that, then they are irrelevant. Counting on Paul to fail as leader and then sneaking in a Lascaris win during another weak leadership contest at some point in the future is a pretty sad plan.

Pondering

kropotkin1951 wrote:

Pondering I have been trying to put eco-socialism on the public agenda now for 48 years since I first supported an NDP candidate who was a leader in the fight against acid rain. Please convince your friends and neighbours they should think the same way. My friends and neighbours and our progressive MP's that we send to Ottawa are waiting for you to get you collective shit together and do something except sit at keyboards and talk about change. Apparently you believe the troika will save us from capitalism and I think the Greeks experience with electing eco-socialists tells me change needs to be locally based.

In the meantime send some progressive MP's to Ottawa instead of right wing Liberals and Bloc MP's and lets see whether change through our political system is possible. It certainly is not when the people of Montreal and Toronto vote for the status quo parties.

I'm doing what I can through supporting Lascaris. I would convince others if I could but as we have seen I am not particularly persuasive. Nevertheless whether we like it or not our futures depend on worldwide action. What we are continuing to do when it is entirely unnescessary is beyond insane. 

I may be late to the eco-socialist party but isn't the point to recruit more people? 

I can't convince people of anything. Lascaris can. That is what makes him such a good leader. He and Haddad are the future of eco-socialism if there is one. I can't imagine him not having the support of QS. 

Casting blame is counter-productive. 

Demographics favor eco-socialists because people under 40 place far more emphasis on climate change and that will only grow but it also takes a leader able to convince people it can be done. 

kropotkin1951

He needs a seat in the House to be a parliamentarian, after all the goal of electoral politics is winning seats to enable your agenda to go forward. The first part is winning a seat. He needs to declare a riding soon and start building an election team on the ground in the city he chooses. When I was involved in Burnaby sending Robinson and then Siksay to Ottawa we had canvassers on the ground from all over the Lower Mainland as well as filling our phone banks night after night. That larger than a riding community effort to target voters in a single riding is what he needs to do to get elected. He needs to start now and you can certainly help if he picks Montreal as the city he is going to seek a nomination in.

As for the leadership of the Greens if he wins a seat and Paul doesn't it will merely be a matter of time but first things first.

Debater

New poll from Abacus:

November 16, 2020

Our latest national polling data shows that an election held today would see the Liberals with 38% support, 8-percentage points ahead of the Conservatives. This is the largest lead for the Liberals since June and a 4-point gain in about a month. The Liberals lead in every part of the country except the Prairie provinces, where the Conservatives have the upper hand.

38% Liberals

30% Conservatives

15% NDP

8% BQ

6% Greens

(Nov. 6-12, 2020)

https://abacusdata.ca/liberal-conservative-vote-november-polling-abacus-data/

NorthReport
Pondering

NorthReport wrote:
">https://www.todayville.com/us-vs-them-is-an-increasingly-common-philosop...

Hogwash. Us versus them is nothing new. Provinces and the feds have been bickering and blaming each other forever.  The Trump phenomenon was created by the Republicans back in the tea party days as they destroyed public education and fed the anger of the working class against elites. 

“Ordered populism rests on the belief in a corrupt elite, and the idea that power needs to be wrested from this elite and returned to the people. Oriented toward authoritarianism, ordered populism emphasizes obedience, hostility toward outgroups, a desire to turn back the clock to a time of greater order in society, and a search for a strongman type to lead the return to a better time.”

Does that type of politics exist in Canada? It sure does, Graves says, and it’s been on the rise for the past few years. His research says that view is shared by as much as a third of the population and its ascent is accompanied by increases in polarization, inequality and a decline in the middle class.”

The fact that we don’t have a true “Trump” populist strongman here does not mean the voters do not seek one......

Perhaps we should support those who are contrarian to the wishes of the elite. Is there an updated Trump out there to lead?

Just asking.

He's referring to O'Toole. 

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/318884862_Growing_Apart_Partisa...

Results suggest that Canada has experienced a surge in partisan sorting that is comparable to that in the US. Over time, likeminded citizens have increasingly clustered into parties, with increasingly stark divisions between partisans......

We also suspect that current concerns in Canada have been lessened somewhat by the election of the Liberals in 2015, which is particularly striking when contrasted to the election of Donald Trump in 2016. Yet, as we show below, the 2015 election results are not the product of reduced partisan divisions. This paper thus sets out to correct this misperception, partly as an exploration of the Canadian political landscape, but also as a test of the generalizability of a trend that has been so prominent in recent studies of the US. We aim, in short, to assess the extent to which Canada has experienced increased partisan sorting around policy preferences.....

The literature on party polarization in Canada suggests further reasons to suspect similarities with the US. Despite the fact that Canadian parties have historically been ideologically incoherent (Clarke et al., 1996), recent decades have witnessed shifts in the party system that have increased the importance of ideology (see, for example, Carty et al.,2000). Both party manifesto data and expert assessments of parties point toward meaningful and expanding ideological distances between parties, especially since the 1980s (Cochrane, 2010; Klingemann et al., 2006)....

Party competition in Canada has historically been characterized not by competition between left(/labour)- and right-oriented parties, but rather by strong, ideologically-flexible centrist parties (and mostly, just one party), put in power by broad-based regional coalitions (see Johnston, 1988; Carty et al., 2000). Yet the party system has been marked by increased polarization since the 1980s (see, for example, Cochrane, 2010), and our analysis offers support for the conjecture that Canadian parties are currently more effective at capturing (and perhaps enhancing) ideological divisions in society. It also serves as a useful reminder that the 2015 election was not the product of Canadians coming together in their support for redistribution, bur rather the electoral success of a pro-redistribution plurality. Whether this distribution of preferences, and the way in which it is captured by the party system, would withstand increasingly polarized and/or populist elite politics remains to be seen. For now, this much is clear: increased partisan sorting, at least regarding attitudes about redistribution, is readily evident in Canada.

Bunch of hogwash. One party, the Progressive Conservatives split up then the Reform side took over. Because of their increasing polarization even they know they can't get a majority anymore. 

If there were rising resentment of corrupt elites the Liberals would be doing much worse. There are multiple alternatives and these are polls not actual votes so people have no reason to pretend to vote Liberal. Nor does it mean everyone is hunky dory with Liberal corruption. It just means the Conservatives are so bad they aren't being considered as a viable alternative. 

Regardless of how people answer questions about redistributive policy the grand majority of Canadians want strong social services, healthcare and pharmacare. We don't classify these policies as redistributative. 

They will not be able to manufacture a Trump style polarization in Canada. Or at least not one big enough to allow the Conservatives to take power. I do hope they go all Trumpian. 

jerrym

In the seven most recent polls (between October 25th and November 15th on Wikipedia) the average for each party is: 

Liberals 36.1%

Cons 30.7%

NDP 18.3%

Bloc 7.3%

Greens 5.7%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_44th_Canadian_fede...

 

NorthReport

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