Canadian Polls, 2021

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Canadian Polls, 2021

This poll's headline is deceptive: 

Liberals and Conservatives neck and neck again

Only they aren't really because within the article, as you get closer to the end, it states.....


According to Bruce Anderson: “We see a topline tightening horserace nationally but after examining key regional battlegrounds it’s not clear to me that one can see a trend developing in terms of competitiveness electorally.

The number of voters looking for change is up marginally, but the intensity of that feeling remains mild, and the increase is more evident in places where the incumbents have little support and weak prospects.

In other words, they are not neck and neck. The Liberals are well ahead. 

Looking at the history of recent polls at the Liberals are ridiculously strong given the state of the country.

Edited to add link to ratings of the pollsters.



Actually the Liberals are in majority territory, but the Jagmeet Singh-led NDP is polling at 21% in latest poll

Libs 38% unchanged

Cons 29%, up 2%

NDP 21%, up 2%

Bloc 6%, down 1% nationally

Gns 5%, down 2%


Now this is interesting. Top issues for the Conservatives are radically out of step with all other Canadians. Respondents were asked to pick their top to concerns. I am very heartened by what made it to the top of the list especially if you take Conservatives out of the equation. Climate change, access to health care, and access to affordable housing are the top three concerns of Canadians, with the Conservatives taxes take third place. Again, leaving out the Conservatives, living conditions for indigenous peoples takes 4th place. 


NDP and Liberal voters seem to have very similar views.

laine lowe laine lowe's picture

I am happy to see how little other parties care about taxes and deficit management compared to the Conservatives. And the ranking on climate change was shocking for how little Conservatives care.


There is good reason that the Liberals and the NDP sound the same on the campaign trail. For me the take away was the disconnect with climate change getting top billing but both NDP and Liberal voters thought that natural resource and energy policy was way down the list of priorities. The Conservatives, while they prioritize the issue for the wrong reasons, are right that this is one of Canada's most critical issues.


If an election were held today, 37 per cent of decided and leaning voters would choose the Liberals, 31 per cent would vote for the Conservatives, 13 per cent would opt for for the NDP, seven per cent would go for the Greens, and five per cent would cast their ballot for the Bloc, Mainstreet’s telephone survey conducted from May 21 to 23 shows. 



This was updated on the 26th

Though some polls are showing a closer national race between the Liberals and Conservatives, they are masking the Liberals' advantage at the regional level, particularly in Ontario and Quebec where most of Canada's seats are located. For that reason, the Liberals are still narrowly in majority territory as the Conservatives, NDP and Bloc Québécois trail behind in a largely static political landscape.

The Conservatives are closing the gap on the Liberals in British Columbia and widening their lead in Alberta and the Prairies. But the Liberals are also increasing their margin over the Conservatives in Ontario and the Bloc Québécois in Quebec, which has a bigger impact on the seat count than the shifts in Western Canada.

However, when breaking down the crosstabs along the respondents’ 2019 federal vote, ARI measured that, among Conservative voters, only 41 per cent agreed climate change is a serious threat, but over 90 per cent of Liberal, NDP, BQ, and Green voters perceived it as such.