Canadian polls, 2021

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bekayne

kropotkin1951 wrote:

I think Beetle bomb is coming up quick on the outside.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uwpNQW5Q5QM

KarlL

bekayne]</p> <p>[quote=KarlL wrote:

kropotkin1951 wrote:

I tend to agree with North Report here, at least as far as 2019 is concerned.  It was more than the margin of error and if it had been just that, one would have expected to see the error on both sides of the line rather than all in one direction.  There are several reasons why the Conservative vote might exceed the stated voting intention.  

 

One is that Conservatives tend to skew older and there is a fair bit of evidence to suggest that older voters are more likely to actually cast their ballots rather than simply state their preferred outcome (many having more time available in which to do so; an established history of doing so, which is a predictor in itself; fewer disruptions of school relocation and so on). 

Remember that the top line poll numbers that you see are not weighted by likelihood of voting.  Lots of pollsters do collect that kind of information as well ("certain to vote") but even then it is only stated intention that may or may not transpire on E-Day - and in any event, those aren't the parts of their polls that are typically reported.  The stuff you see in the daily headlines is all about the popularity contest.

Then there is another factor.  Lots of folks have tried to debunk the notion of the shy Conservative (or Republican) voter but they do seem to be there in some elections.  There used to be a similar phenomenon in Quebec that favoured the Liberals, the so called "ballot box bonus", in which Liberals (federally on occasion but especially provincially) typically received more votes than they were expected to get. That was tied to shyness among francophone Quebecers about not admitting to peers and pollsters that one was not a part of the sovereingtist project that was otherwise so tied to Quebec symbolism and sentiment.  In the case of the provincial elections, it was also probably the case that Anglophone and many allophone vioters were very highly motivated not to have the result lead to their being dragged off as a minority into a new nation.

In the Conservative (or Republican) case, it is more about shyness about admitting to something that might be seen as being socially unacceptable.  People mainly vote their pocketbook and so you have folks who wouldn't admit to their neighbour or even a pollster that they are voting for lower taxes or some other thing that will feather their own nest, because by doing so they may risk being seen as endorsing those who would limit reproductive choice, cosy up to the gun lobby or what have you. 

I don't think it is a big part of the electorate and Lord knows, lots of Conservatives aren't shy about sharing and indeed oversharing their affiliation but some small number does hold back that information.  It may also have been more prevalent in 2019 because Scheer was such an obviously flawed, even embarrassing candidate, between his fudged resume and his hidden US Citizenship.  

Will it be the same this time out?  Dunno.  O'Toole seems somehow more socially acceptable than was Scheer and less nasty than Harper.  The worst nutjobs have flitted off to the PPC, so maybe those who want lower taxes and (relatively) lower spending are going to be more comfortable flying their true colours.

You were bang on when talking about the age of the voters and the likelihood to vote, another factor is income. But the "shy Tory" is still, and always has been, a myth that can be explained by voter turnout.

Income was a factor in the past, I agree but it is no longer clear to me that Conservative voters have higher incomes than Liberal voters, not if income correlates to education level. 

The Conservatives are increasingly likely to draw support from those with high school education or less - and that shows up in all sorts of polls.  It may not be a strong education-to-income correlation and I have not looked to see a voting breakdown by income level, so perhaps I am wrong.  It is also possible that the marginal vote of the Liberals is lower income than the marginal vote of the Cons, even if the overall voting blocs are the opposite.

NorthReport

Nanos

Libs 32.3%, Down 0.9%

CPC 31.2%, Up 1%

NDP 18.9%, Up 0.3%, gains 1.2% on the Liberals

PPC 6.7%

BQ 6.4%

Grn 3.8%

Ken Burch

On Election Night, I'm guessing that the pollsters will end up saying something like what the BBC analyst says in the Monty Python "Election Special" sketch:  "Well, this is largely as I predicted, except that the Silly Party won".

JKR

Eric Grenier’s CBC News Poll Tracker; September 14, 2021

LIB: 151 seats
CON: 122 seats
NDP: 35 seats
BQ: 29 seats
Green: 1 seat
PPC: 0
Other: 

NorthReport

338Canada Poll Aggregator Sep 13 21

Party / 2015 / 2019 / 2021 Poll / Difference

Libs / 184 seats / 157 seats / 146 seats / Down 38 seats

CPC / 99 seats / 121 seats / 126 seats / Up 27 seats

NDP / 44 seats / 24 seats / 32 seats  / Down 12 seats

BQ / 10 seats / 32 seats / 32 seats /  Up 22 seats

Grn / 1 seat / 3 seats / 2 seats / Up 1 seat

NorthReport

Research Co - Sep 13 21

Libs 34%

CPC 30%

NDP 20%

Liberals Regain Lead, Conservatives and NDP Drop in Canada One-in-ten Conservative Party voters from 2019 say they will cast a ballot for the People’s Party in this month’s election. Vancouver, BC [September 14, 2021] – As Canada heads to the final week of campaigning in the 2021 federal election, the governing Liberal Party is ahead of its competitors, a new Research Co. poll has found. In the online survey of a representative national sample, 34% of decided voters in Canada would support the Liberal candidate in their constituency, up one point since a similar Research Co. poll conducted in late August. The Conservative Party is second with 30% (-2), followed by the New Democratic Party (NDP) with 20% (-2), the Bloc Québécois with 7% (+1), the People’s Party with 5% (+2) and the Green Party with 3% (-1). In addition, 1% of decided voters in the country would back a different party or an independent candidate. The Conservatives remain ahead of the Liberals among male voters (36% to 31%) and voters aged 55 and over (35% to 31%). The Liberals hold the upper hand over the Conservatives among female voters (38DP 20%% to 25%) and voters aged 35-to-54 (39% to 30%). The Liberals are also in first place among decided voters aged 18- to-34 (37%, with the NDP at 27% and the Conservatives at 18%). In Atlantic Canada, the Liberals remain the most favoured option for voters (40%, with the Conservatives at 34%). In Quebec, the governing party holds an eight-point lead over the Bloc (37% to 29%). Half of decided voters in Alberta (50%) would support the Conservative candidate in their constituency, along with more than two-in-five (43%) of those who reside in Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The race remains closely contested in Ontario, where the Liberals are slightly ahead of the Conservatives (37% to 34%) and in British Columbia, where the three main federal parties are virtually tied (30% for the Conservatives, 29% for the New Democrats and 28% for the Liberals). The People’s Party is benefiting from a higher level of support in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (9%), Alberta (7%) and Ontario (6%). In fact, 10% of Canadians who supported the Conservatives in the 2019 federal election say they will be voting for the People’s Party in 2021. PRESS RELEASE | Canada mario.canseco @researchco.ca mario_canseco 778.929.0490 Mario Canseco 2 Thinking of each of the following federal party leaders, would you say you generally approve or disapprove of the way each one has performed in their job? Jagmeet Singh – 49% (-2) Justin Trudeau – 43% (-2) Erin O’Toole – 40% (-1) Annamie Paul – 23% (+2) Maxime Bernier – 15% (=) Almost one-in-four Canadians (23%, -3) think health care is the most important issue facing the country today, followed by the economy and jobs (22%, +2), housing, homelessness and poverty (16%, +1) and the environment (12%, -1). Across Canada, the NDP’s Jagmeet Singh continues to post the highest approval rating among the five leaders who are running nationwide campaigns (49%, -2), followed by Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Justin Trudeau (43%, -2), Official Opposition and Conservative Party leader Erin O’Toole (40%, -1), Annamie Paul of the Green Party (23%, +2) and Maxime Bernier of the People’s Party (15%, =). Singh also remains ahead on personal momentum, with 27% of Canadians saying their opinion of him has improved since the start of the campaign. The numbers on this indicator are lower for O’Toole (22%), Trudeau (15%), Paul (12%) and Bernier (8%). On the “Best Prime Minister” question, Trudeau remains in first place with 33% (+1), followed by O’Toole (26%, =), Singh (18%, -2), Bernier (5%, +2) and Paul (2%, +1). “A third of Canadian women (33%) feel Justin Trudeau is the best person to manage the federal government, while only one-in-five (19%) select Erin O’Toole,” says Mario Canseco, President of Research Co. “The race is significantly tighter among male voters on this same question, with Trudeau at 34% and O’Toole at 33%.” ==30== About Research Co. Simply put, we are curious about what people think and the decisions they will make. Some call it public opinion, others call it polling or public affairs. We never compromise facts for profit. Our agenda is the truth. We have a global network of partners in the qualitative, data collection and data visualization specialities. ==30== Media contact: Mario Canseco, President, Research Co. [c] 778.929.0490 [e] [email protected]

 

 

https://researchco.ca/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/Release_Politics_CAN_14...

josh

Nanaimo-Ladysmith

Oraclepoll (conducted between September 3-7)

DECIDED VOTERS- Paul Manly (Grn): 36%; Tamara Kronis (Conservative): 28%; Lisa Barron (NDP): 25%; Michelle Corfield (Liberal): 10%; Welton (PPC)- 1&

nicky

Was this poll commissioned by the Greens?

They have used Oracle in past elections to present polls which have greatly overstated their vote in particular ridings.

NorthReport

Woo! Hoo!

NDP gains 4.3% on the Liberals last nite

Nanos - Sep 14

CPC 31.2%, No Change

Libs 30.5%, Down 1.8%

NDP 21.4%, Up 2.5%

Liberals have been trending down since last Friday

https://www.ctvnews.ca/mobile/politics/federal-election-2021/liberals-an...

NorthReport
NorthReport

Outrageous yes, but Liberals could win a majority with only 35% of the vote

NorthReport

Innovative Research Sep 12

Libs 33%
CPC 28%
NDP 22%

KarlL

NorthReport wrote:
Outrageous yes, but Liberals could win a majority with only 35% of the vote

I don't see it.  There is some degree of fatigue/malaise in Liberal voter ranks.  Add to that that the CPC is pressing the Liberals in 905 and Atlantic Canada, the Bloc is rising in Quebec and the NDP seems to be doing better in the West and especially BC and I don''t see majority-winning.  conditions. 

The PPC could conceivably draw enough votes to blunt the Conservative challenge to Liberals in Ontario, Atlantic and Lower Mainland BC but elsewhere the Liberals aren't really in the game in anything other than a smattering of ridings.

If the Bloc sustain their rise and Ontario stays as tight as it is, I think a Conservative plurality is a greater likelihood than a Liberal majority and I would go further and say that a Conservative-Bloc combination > 170 is not an implausible outcome by any means.

NorthReport

Bryan says the Bloc could get up to 40 seats

PROJECTIONS UPDATE, SEPT 13TH: BLOC SURGE PREVENTS A LIBERAL MAJORITY

 

https://www.tooclosetocall.ca/2021/09/projections-update-sept-13th-bloc-...

JKR

NorthReport wrote:
Outrageous yes, but Liberals could win a majority with only 35% of the vote

With FPTP a party can come in second place and still win a phoney FPTP majority.

JKR

KarlL wrote:
If the Bloc sustain their rise and Ontario stays as tight as it is, I think a Conservative plurality is a greater likelihood than a Liberal majority and I would go further and say that a Conservative-Bloc combination > 170 is not an implausible outcome by any means.

For me the nightmare scenario for this election is Conservative-Bloc combination > 170.

NorthReport

All because of Trudeau's arrogant, greedy stupidity in calling an unnecessary election. And all the more reason to vote in a high number of New Democrats to prevent that from happening.

kropotkin1951

JKR wrote:

NorthReport wrote:
Outrageous yes, but Liberals could win a majority with only 35% of the vote

With FPTP a party can come in second place and still win a phoney FPTP majority.

Like Glen Clark in 1996.

JKR

kropotkin1951 wrote:

JKR wrote:

NorthReport wrote:
Outrageous yes, but Liberals could win a majority with only 35% of the vote

With FPTP a party can come in second place and still win a phoney FPTP majority.

Like Glen Clark in 1996.

And that set up the NDP to only win 2 seats in the election following the 1996 "wrong winner" election.

NorthReport

Hounded out of the Premier's office by dirty right-wing politicos, Glen Clark is now president and CEO of the most sucessful business conglomerate in BC. Imagine that!

Why did Glen step down anyways - was there a palace coup within the NDP?

Casinogate[edit]

In March 1999, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police executed a search warrant and searched the Clark household.[5] The media was tipped off about the raid and television news showed live, primetime coverage of the premier pacing inside his house while the search was conducted. Two weeks later the RCMP conducted a search of the Premier's Office.[6]

The subsequent investigation spawned intense coverage by the media.[7] However, subsequent coverage also exposed numerous inaccuracies in the way the story was initially portrayed, with some critics alleging a media or RCMP conspiracy to smear him for ideological reasons.[8]

Clark resigned suddenly on the night of August 21, 1999, following allegations that he had accepted favours (in the form of free renovations worth $10,000, which he had actually paid for) from Dimitrios Pilarinos in return for approving a casino application.[9] He was later formally charged with committing breach of trust, a criminal offence.[10]

Conflict of interest commissioner H.A.D. Oliver concluded in 2001 that Clark had violated conflict of interest laws in British Columbia.[7] However, Clark was acquitted of all criminal charges by the Supreme Court of British Columbia on August 29, 2002,[10] with Justice Elizabeth Bennett ruling that while Clark had unwisely left himself open to a perception of unethical behaviour, there was no solid evidence that he had actually done anything illegal.[11]

After political life[edit]

Upon Clark's resignation, Deputy Premier Dan Miller acceded to the interim leadership of the New Democratic Party, and the premiership, until a leadership convention selected Ujjal Dosanjh. Due in part to the scandals surrounding Clark, the NDP was heavily defeated by the BC Liberals under Gordon Campbell in the 2001 provincial election, winning just two seats provincewide. Clark currently works as the Chief Operating Officer for Jim Pattison Group in Vancouver, BC.

Clark is currently president and chief operating officer of the Jim Pattison Group.[1]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glen_Clark

NorthReport

Here is some good news for the NDP. Liberals must be choked that they did not pick up the falling CPC support. 

Abacus daily tracking both decided and already voted:

Libs 33%, No Change

CPC 31%, Down 3%

NDP 22%, Up 6%

BQ 5%, Down 3%

PPC 5%, Up 2%

Grn 3%, Down 4%

NorthReport

 

NikNanos.DataHound.KeynoteSpeaker

@niknanos

·

12h#ELXN44: Preferred PM > Dead head for Trudeau and O'Toole > O'Toole maintains gain > Trudeau trending down for 4th night, Sigh trending up in

 

Image

NorthReport

338 Sep 15

L 144 seats

C 128 seats

N 32 seats

B 32 seats

G 2 seats

NorthReport

Too Close To Call Sep 15

L 147 seats

C 125 seats

N 33 seats

B 31 seats

G 1 seat

melovesproles

KarlL wrote:

NorthReport wrote:
Outrageous yes, but Liberals could win a majority with only 35% of the vote

I don't see it.  There is some degree of fatigue/malaise in Liberal voter ranks.  Add to that that the CPC is pressing the Liberals in 905 and Atlantic Canada, the Bloc is rising in Quebec and the NDP seems to be doing better in the West and especially BC and I don''t see majority-winning.  conditions. 

[snip]

If the Bloc sustain their rise and Ontario stays as tight as it is, I think a Conservative plurality is a greater likelihood than a Liberal majority

I agree. I think a Conservative minority has been the second most likely scenario since the lustre wore off Trudeau during the latter half of his first term. The hype that Conservatives were a sinking ship because they were dropping in the polls under O'Toole ignored that it was mostly in regions where they had safe leads. The road to a Liberal majority was always going to have to go through the Bloc and the NDP and it should be obvious to voters of those parties that they get more of what they want when there is a minority government.

You have to wonder at the incredible hubris that the Liberal party thought it would be a good idea to cause an unnecessary election in the middle of a surging pandemic and then argue that NDP or Bloc voters needed to switch their votes to Liberal for the sake of stable government when the Liberals were the only reason we had sudden and unwanted political instability. It does seem like the Liberal Party's biggest weaknesses is believing their own BS. 

I try to consider the possiblity that there might have been an intelligent reason behind this. The only thing that makes any sense is that maybe the Liberals are quite certain we are heading into bleak economic times and think we're much better off now than we will be in 2 years and want to avoid an election when it will be impossible not to pretend the economy is tanking.

I do think the one thing the Liberals have going for them is Mad Max siphoning off votes from the Conservatives in key Ontario swing ridings but that's not the kind of shitshow you should be gambling on.

NorthReport

Nanos Sep 15

L 31.9%
C 30.3%
N 21.2%
P 6.7%
B 6.4%
G 3.2%

KarlL

This is as close as you will get to an admission of panic in the Conservative ranks.  Conservative strategist (and ex Rob Ford Svengali) Nik Kouvalis raising the alarm re PPC votes that otherwise would have gone to O'Toole.  It is an interesting read and has no qualms about calling it from a partisan perspective: https://drive.google.com/file/d/10lu_g-KCvz3rFld0glyrpKh9C7GqK8xP/view 

UPDATED: sorry the above link doesn't work so well.  You can get it at the following page: https://www.campaignresearch.com/single-post/final-positioning-ppc-poise...

jerrym
jerrym
KarlL

jerrym wrote:

Mainstreet poll Sept. 15https://archive.md/2eBrkhttps://archive.md/2eBrk

Today's numbers for the 3 days rolling to September 15 were put out by EKOS this morning in "The Curse of Politics" podcast but have not yet been reported in Wikipedia or the aggregators.  EKOS had not had the Liberals leading since August 22, and at one point had the Conservatives leading by 7.4%.  

Your daily #elxn44 polling update, courtesy of @VoiceOfFranky

 

NATIONAL: LIB 32%/CPC 30%/NDP 18%/PPC 8%/BQ 6%/GRN 4%  

ONTARIO: LIB 37%/CPC 31%/NDP 20%/PPC 8%/GRN 4%

QUEBEC: LIB 34%/BQ 27%/CPC 20%/NDP 12%/PPC 4%/GRN 3%

No breakdown was given for other regions.

NDPP

Electronic tracking of voters is a thorny topic in a tight federal election race

https://theconversation.com/electronic-tracing-of-voters-is-a-thorny-top...

"The data is valuable to parties. There are however, potential risks for privacy and democratic engagement..."

(e.g: Have fun with all that NDP data Hill & Knowlton!)

kropotkin1951

KarlL wrote:

jerrym wrote:

Mainstreet poll Sept. 15https://archive.md/2eBrkhttps://archive.md/2eBrk

Today's numbers for the 3 days rolling to September 15 were put out by EKOS this morning in "The Curse of Politics" podcast but have not yet been reported in Wikipedia or the aggregators.  EKOS had not had the Liberals leading since August 22, and at one point had the Conservatives leading by 7.4%.  

Your daily #elxn44 polling update, courtesy of @VoiceOfFranky

 

NATIONAL: LIB 32%/CPC 30%/NDP 18%/PPC 8%/BQ 6%/GRN 4%  

ONTARIO: LIB 37%/CPC 31%/NDP 20%/PPC 8%/GRN 4%

QUEBEC: LIB 34%/BQ 27%/CPC 20%/NDP 12%/PPC 4%/GRN 3%

No breakdown was given for other regions.

If the NDP cannot poll over 20% in Ontario and 12% in Quebec, where two thirds of the seats are then this will be a dismal showing for the NDP. Jagmeet should be in Ontario winning a seat where he is from instead of half hardheartedly representing the interests of Burnaby residents. The people of Burnaby like to send MP's to Ottawa to speak truth to power and instead they now get Hill and Knowlton soundbites from their MP.

He is neither Svend nor Bill but a cheap imitation of a socialist environmentalist. When the real environmentalists are in a life and death fight to stop a dangerous tank terminal and port facility we get the Site C answer, "we will study it if elected." The idea that it needs studied means that some economic report could be more important than the indigenous rights of the peoples who live in the Inlet and who are opposed to it, let alone the risk to Vancouver's tourism industry if their is a tar sands gunk spill from the facility. There is nothing to fucking study and maybe just maybe it is those kinds of half messages that have people going who cares Trudeau or Singh it makes little difference.

NorthReport

Abacus - overnite polling

L 34%
C 30%
N 21%

NorthReport

Nanos Sep 16

L 31.9%
C 30.4%
N 20.3%
P 7.5%
B 5.8%
G 3.2%

NorthReport
NorthReport
KarlL

NorthReport wrote:
Abacus - overnite polling L 34% C 30% N 21%

That poll is weird regionally, finding big Liberal leads in Atlantic, Quebec and Ontario, better than I think plausible in Alberta (not that that adds more than a couple of Liberal seats and several NDP seats) and a Liberal collapse in BC, with a strong NDP in the West but weak in the East. If true, that would be a very efficient Liberal vote and would be just short of a majority by 5 seats or so but again, it is only n=1604 nationally, so some of those regional samples are pretty small and you can't put much faith in the regional splits.

Image

melovesproles

nicky wrote:

Was this poll commissioned by the Greens?

They have used Oracle in past elections to present polls which have greatly overstated their vote in particular ridings.

People must still really be up in arms about Leonard Krog resigning..

NorthReport

.

NorthReport

Seat Projections showing Liberals dropping and NDP gaining the most

https://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/seat-projection-suggests-a-narro...

NorthReport

This poll looks like a biggie!

Abacus Sep 16

L 33%, Down 1%
C 32%, Up 2%

N 21%, Unchanged

https://twitter.com/DavidColetto/status/1438978568877268994?s=20

NorthReport

With the NDP up again and showing 21% support this morning with one day left for the pollsters, Jagmeet is doing much better than initially expected

NorthReport

Polling news is even better than I thought for the NDP overnite with one day left in the campaign, with both Abacus and Nanos showing the Liberals losing steam in the dying days of the campaign.

Nanos - Friday, September 17

Party / Sep 16 / Sep 17 / Cge

Libs / 31.9% / 31.3% / Down 0.6%

CPC 30.4% / 29.2% / Down 1.2%

NDP / 20.3% / 20.9% / Up 0.6%

 

bekayne

Apparently these are the latest Ontario numbers from EKOS:

https://twitter.com/CurseOfPolitics/status/1439230844481196045

josh

That won't make NR happy.

NorthReport

How much of a lead did the Liberals have when the election was called - 10%?, 12%?

With the usual 3% underestimation of the Conservatives in the polls it is obvious that Trudeau fatigue has set in. 

josh wrote:

That won't make NR happy.

NorthReport

Abacus September 18

Party / Sep 17 / Sep 18 / Cge

Libs / 33% / 32% / Down 1%

CPC / 32% / 31% / Down 1%

NDP / 21% / 21% / No Change

https://twitter.com/DavidColetto/status/1439337181185642496?s=20

NorthReport

Singh has an insurmountable lead in the New West's Burger Poll. Wink! Wink!

https://www.straight.com/food/burger-poll-finds-jagmeet-singh-far-ahead-...

NorthReport

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