Canadian Voters

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Pondering
Canadian Voters

August 18th, 2018 so Trudeau's numbers are lower but that is besides the point. 

https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/its-not-all-about-their-base-canadas-2019-election-will-hinge-on-these-voters/

Bruce Anderson is the chairman of Abacus Data

  1. Today, 57 per cent of Canadians say they’d prefer to see a different government in 2019, according to the latest poll from Abacus Data ( to put that number into perspective, that’s close to the number that didn’t vote Liberal in 2015)
  2. These people are typically unhappy about some things the government has done; think electoral reform, Trans Mountain Pipeline, plans for a carbon tax. But they aren’t sure if any alternative would be better. So they look at each issue in a pragmatic, non-polarized way. They crave a more sensible, down-to-earth, less bombastic pitch.  They don’t want their cost of living to go up, but they worry about climate change and think if you don’t like carbon taxes you should at least have another idea that could work.  They may not be happy about owning a pipeline but worry that the economy will take too big a hit if we try to shift off oil too quickly.
  3. Across Canada, 89 per cent of Canadians believe the country works best “by finding middle ground and compromise,” and 92 per cent of Persuadables feel this way.
  4. Along the same lines, 77 cent of Canadians (and 81 per cent, among Persuadables) would prefer the Conservative Party to be more progressive on social issues, and 68 cent (73 per cent among Persuadables) would like it if the NDP was more centrist on economic issues. 
  5. Who are Persuaders? Half are men, half women, 60 per cent are under 45—a decidedly younger crowd. Fifty-three per cent would consider voting Conservative, 59 per cent Liberal, and 61 per cent NDP.  In short, they are up for grabs.
  6. Persuaders are sort of the opposite of base voters. Compared to other people, they are almost twice as likely to feel strongly that “Canada works best by finding middle ground and compromise,” and twice as likely to say we “need pragmatic solutions that serve most people, even if they don’t satisfy the far left or far right.” Eighty-three per cent would prefer a more progressive Conservative Party and 77 per cent of them a more centrist NDP.

Pondering

https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/the-one-issue-that-unites-canadians-is-the-one-politicians-that-ignore/

The public has arrived at a rare moment of agreement that populism has been unleashed by a stratification of income not seen since the early years of the last century. In a country otherwise incommensurably divided on the major political issues of the day like immigration, globalization, climate change and the role of the state, EKOS finds harmonious thought among most Canadians—regardless of party attachment—that extreme and growing concentration of wealth at the top is responsible for Canada’s current social and economic problems. 

This is the issue to talk about not SNC-Lavalin or handshakes. Let the Conservatives focus on SNC. 

Pondering

Whoa! Look at these numbers for the NDP!

When we ask which party they might support if switched their preferences (their second choice in other words), we find:

• Disaffected Liberals would be more likely to vote NDP than Conservative, with the Green Party also seeing a lift.
• Disaffected New Democrats would tend to help the Liberals, but the Greens would also benefit.
• Disaffected Greens would be more likely to vote NDP than Liberal
• Disaffected Conservatives would, remarkably, be more likely to vote NDP than Liberal.

https://abacusdata.ca/conservatives-lead-as-2015-liberal-coalition-splinters/

Huge growth potentional for the NDP especially considering the previous post showing voters concern over income inequality. 

Pondering

Taking a good look at that chart suggests that an NDP/Green merger would be greater than the sum of its parts. I think they would gain more support than they might lose by merging. It would increase their viability as a winning party. The NDP almost made it in 2015,

While there are many voters who shift between the Conservatives and Liberals they would never merge. They are diametrically opposed. 

The NDP attracts voters from both. 

Add to that the focus on income inequality and things could change dramatically for the NDP. Not to the point of winning necessarily but at least a strong showing or balance of power in a minority Liberal government. 

I suspect that Singh will do very well in the debates against Scheer and Trudeau. Voters respond to strong debate performance. 

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

Pondering wrote:

Taking a good look at that chart suggests that an NDP/Green merger would be greater than the sum of its parts. I think they would gain more support than they might lose by merging. It would increase their viability as a winning party. The NDP almost made it in 2015,

While there are many voters who shift between the Conservatives and Liberals they would never merge. They are diametrically opposed. 

The NDP attracts voters from both. 

Add to that the focus on income inequality and things could change dramatically for the NDP. Not to the point of winning necessarily but at least a strong showing or balance of power in a minority Liberal government. 

I suspect that Singh will do very well in the debates against Scheer and Trudeau. Voters respond to strong debate performance. 

We're all with you on the idea that the NDP should talk a lot about income inequality.  It's not as though they can't talk about anything ELSE to do that, though.

It's enough that income inequality be the dominant part of the NDP message.  It doesn't have to be the ONLY thing, with silence being maintained on all other issues.

Pondering

Ken Burch wrote:

We're all with you on the idea that the NDP should talk a lot about income inequality.  It's not as though they can't talk about anything ELSE to do that, though.

It's enough that income inequality be the dominant part of the NDP message.  It doesn't have to be the ONLY thing, with silence being maintained on all other issues.

Not maintain silence no, but not to the extent that the income inequality gets lost in the list of injustices to tackle. A different message should never displace the primaries. 1 or 2 top issues, income inequality and averting environmental disaster. Then maybe 3 more one of which would have to be indigenous peoples. Although they represent a small percentage of the Canadian population they have legal rights and unceded territories recognized by the courts. That leaves room for 2 more. Pharmacare seems like an obvious choice. Five isn't an absolute number but if you go beyond seven it will be very problematic. 

You know the MSM is the enemy of the NDP. They will take statements out of context. They will try to obscure not illuminate. 

I agree that the NDP message on Venezuela should be hands-off and that they must take a position on this and other current events. It would be odd not to. When the NDP is in control of the agenda they should take the opportunity to talk about inequality and environmental protection. 

kropotkin1951 kropotkin1951's picture

Pondering wrote:

You know the MSM is the enemy of the NDP. They will take statements out of context. They will try to obscure not illuminate. 

I agree that the NDP message on Venezuela should be hands-off and that they must take a position on this and other current events. It would be odd not to. When the NDP is in control of the agenda they should take the opportunity to talk about inequality and environmental protection. 

When the NDP has been elected provincially is when the MSM increases the propaganda. When they are elected back to back like in BC the MSM will do anything to try and permanently defame the party. Even filming a Premier's family from the street while the RCMP search the house for documents proving corruption. The courts found that Clark paid about 10% under the average fair market price for his back deck reno, about what one would expect as a discount to a neighbour.

The oligarchy will use every trick in their media's arsenal against any party that presents any potential threat to its power. They will also engage in the age old capital strike as they did in BC in the '90's. Howe Street publicly announced that the business climate in BC was not to its liking so they would be not making any major investments while the NDP was in power. Their media then ran endless stories on how bad the economy was and how everyone was fleeing the province to find work. Call it Venezuela or Chile Lite, destroying the economy of elected socialist governments is Plan A in the local capitalists play book. Of course the NDP aren't real socialists so they got the milder version of the tough love pill.

Yup the game is rigged and it always will be but the fight continues.

Pondering

So how are voters reacting in BC? Is NDP popularity against the Liberals waning or growing and why? 

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

YAY! as per usual the NDP stagnates in third place but IF the NDP is the pick as a secondary party of favour, well, let me go chill the champagne and order all the party favours! Good grief.

Pondering

alan smithee wrote:

YAY! as per usual the NDP stagnates in third place but IF the NDP is the pick as a secondary party of favour, well, let me go chill the champagne and order all the party favours! Good grief.

It's a good thing because all those voters are reachable with the right campaign. While it is not likely for 2019 it is possible for the NDP to win a majority government. The NDP could do spectacularly well. I think people are semi-woke in large part to climate change. It is beyond obvious that the powers that be are completely amoral and lacking in the most basic common sense. 

The Green New Deal is catching on in the states. Inequality+environment are the two biggest concerns facing the electorate. The Conservatives are planning on focusing on foreign affairs and defence spending. Their numbers are high now because people are just saying Conservative because they are disappointed in Trudeau. To know Scheer is to be unimpressed. He will take a win and pull a loss out of his back-pocket. With the right campaign the NDP could pick up a lot of votes. 

Sadly I believe what is on the outside counts. The turban stands in the way of Singh becoming PM. I still think he might succeed in rebranding the NDP as the party addressing the environment and inequality. The NDP could easily take Green votes if they are based primarily on the environment. The NDP is the more viable party to win federally. For now I believe Singh is the NDP's best chance of making progress in 2019. After that we'll see. I still don't see anyone better waiting in the wings to take Canada by storm. 

JKR

Pondering wrote:

The Conservatives are planning on focusing on foreign affairs and defence spending. Their numbers are high now because people are just saying Conservative because they are disappointed in Trudeau. To know Scheer is to be unimpressed. 

It seems to me that for the last 15 years the Conservatives have been hovering mostly around the 32 - 36% range in the polls. Under FPTP that's enough for them to win elections and form governments depending on how the other parties to the left of them are doing. Under FPTP the Conservatives can win by just maintaining a strong right of centre base even if it's just a smallish minority of voters and even if a clear majority of voters are opposed to them and their policies.

Debater

JKR wrote:
Pondering wrote:

The Conservatives are planning on focusing on foreign affairs and defence spending. Their numbers are high now because people are just saying Conservative because they are disappointed in Trudeau. To know Scheer is to be unimpressed. 

It seems to me that for the last 15 years the Conservatives have been hovering mostly around the 32 - 36% range in the polls. Under FPTP that's enough for them to win elections and form governments depending on how the other parties to the left of them are doing. Under FPTP the Conservatives can win by just maintaining a strong right of centre base even if it's just a smallish minority of voters and even if a clear majority of voters are opposed to them and their policies.

Yes, that's why it was smart of the right to unite the PC's and Alliance in 2003.  They have a core group of voters that is stronger than the base of the Liberals, NDP or Greens.  Whereas many non-Conservatives alternate between Liberal, NDP, Green, etc., most Conservatives always vote Conservative, except for a small number of red tories who sometimes go Liberal, Green or NDP.

This is also the case in other countries like the U.S. and the UK where the Republican & Conservative parties don't actually have a huge amount of support (eg. Trump actually lost the popular vote to Hillary) but it's enough to win if the core right-wing base remains strong.

JKR

Debater wrote:

Yes, that's why it was smart of the right to unite the PC's and Alliance in 2003.  They have a core group of voters that is stronger than the base of the Liberals, NDP or Greens.  Whereas many non-Conservatives alternate between Liberal, NDP, Green, etc., most Conservatives always vote Conservative, except for a small number of red tories who sometimes go Liberal, Green or NDP.

This is also the case in other countries like the U.S. and the UK where the Republican & Conservative parties don't actually have a huge amount of support (eg. Trump actually lost the popular vote to Hillary) but it's enough to win if the core right-wing base remains strong.

This is likely why vote suppression is a major goal of right wing parties like the Republicans in the US and the Conservatives in Canada.

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Pondering wrote:

alan smithee wrote:

YAY! as per usual the NDP stagnates in third place but IF the NDP is the pick as a secondary party of favour, well, let me go chill the champagne and order all the party favours! Good grief.

It's a good thing because all those voters are reachable with the right campaign. While it is not likely for 2019 it is possible for the NDP to win a majority government. The NDP could do spectacularly well. I think people are semi-woke in large part to climate change. It is beyond obvious that the powers that be are completely amoral and lacking in the most basic common sense. 

The Green New Deal is catching on in the states. Inequality+environment are the two biggest concerns facing the electorate. The Conservatives are planning on focusing on foreign affairs and defence spending. Their numbers are high now because people are just saying Conservative because they are disappointed in Trudeau. To know Scheer is to be unimpressed. He will take a win and pull a loss out of his back-pocket. With the right campaign the NDP could pick up a lot of votes. 

Sadly I believe what is on the outside counts. The turban stands in the way of Singh becoming PM. I still think he might succeed in rebranding the NDP as the party addressing the environment and inequality. The NDP could easily take Green votes if they are based primarily on the environment. The NDP is the more viable party to win federally. For now I believe Singh is the NDP's best chance of making progress in 2019. After that we'll see. I still don't see anyone better waiting in the wings to take Canada by storm. 

Well Canadians are really stupid if they vote for the Conservative simply because they are disappointed in Trudeau.

we all know what to expect from the CPC

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

oh, that would be Canadian Trumpistan and create a lot of misery. You know it and I know it. Tory times are hard times.

Pondering

alan smithee wrote:

Well Canadians are really stupid if they vote for the Conservative simply because they are disappointed in Trudeau.

we all know what to expect from the CPC

Not stupid just staying with the status quo because they don't see a better option. The NDP has failed to make their case so far for this election but they did come close to winning in 2015. 

This is a problem:

http://www.nanos.co/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/2019-1420-Bloomberg-Apr-populated-report-with-tabs.pdf

The NDP is not trusted with the economy.  Claims that provincially they have run fewer deficits are meaningless. The economy is about much more than the deficit. The NDP can be right about all the social justice issues in Canada and the world and they still will not win an election until Canadians believe they can manage the economy.