The coming Conservative super-majority in Canada

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robbie_dee
The coming Conservative super-majority in Canada

With Andrew Scheer's Conservatives likely to form the next federal government out the ashes of Trudeau's SNC Lavelin implosion, and Jason Kenney's UCP still by far most likely to form the next government of Alberta, by this fall we will likely have a federal Conservative government and wall to wall right wing provincial governments from Edmonton to Fredericton. Six of nine Supreme Court Justices, including the Chief Justice, also were at least originally Harper appointees. What policies can we expect from this new alignment of political forces and how can the Canadian left organize against what I expect will be significant challenges?

quizzical

no worries BC has got this ;)

robbie_dee

quizzical wrote:

no worries BC has got this ;)

I'd actually include the potential emergence of a B.C. separatist movement on the list of possible issues that could be coming, given how ideologically divergent the province may find itself from the rest of Canada.

NorthReport

This is the old Liberal canard that gets trotted out every election

At least try to be original  with such nonsense

bekayne

robbie_dee wrote:

quizzical wrote:

no worries BC has got this ;)

I'd actually include the potential emergence of a B.C. separatist movement on the list of possible issues that could be coming, given how ideologically divergent the province may find itself from the rest of Canada.

Not a chance. Also, a good chunk of the north and interior may as well be a part of Alberta. Plus the lower mainland bible belt.

Sean in Ottawa

robbie_dee wrote:

With Andrew Scheer's Conservatives likely to form the next federal government out the ashes of Trudeau's SNC Lavelin implosion, and Jason Kenney's UCP still by far most likely to form the next government of Alberta, by this fall we will likely have a federal Conservative government and wall to wall right wing provincial governments from Edmonton to Fredericton. Six of nine Supreme Court Justices, including the Chief Justice, also were at least originally Harper appointees. What policies can we expect from this new alignment of political forces and how can the Canadian left organize against what I expect will be significant challenges?

With NDP-Green on West Coast and Green in PEI nipping on heals.

Actually, I am thinking that this may be overly pessimistic.

Also polls reflect enthusiasm not real support between elections as I say often: 99% do not answer polls. Good chance that there is a lot of non-conservative voters federally who are undecided even if decidedly not Conservative. They may count for somebody by October.

JKR

NorthReport wrote:

This is the old Liberal canard that gets trotted out every election

At least try to be original  with such nonsense

The Conservatives could never win an election!!! Just look at how Harper was never able to form government!!!!! What a canard!!!!!!! Prime Minister Scheer is an impossibility!!!!!!!!!! Almost as impossible as President Trump!!!!!!!!!!!!

NorthReport

.

Pondering

It isn't impossible for the Conservatives to win but it is still unlikely. Canadians still approve of the Liberal budget. I'm 80% sure Trudeau will still get a second mandate. It would be nice if it's a minority mandate. 

NorthReport

Now its time for all the Liberals to trot out their revisionist history.  The reality is if the Liberals had worked with Layton, Harper would have been ousted from power a lot sooner.

It is the Liberals fault basically 100% why we keep getting Conservative governments. And the reason that is true is that the Liberals are deceivers just like we have seen with the SNC scandal. Liberals come out with false progressive platform out and promise bullshit and progressive voters vote for them, and then get angry at them, because of their Liberal lies. And because the Liberals do such a good job of discrediting the NDP, some of these progressive voters unfortunately in their frustration end up voting Conservative in the following election, because they do not like being lied to.  

NorthReport wrote:

JKR wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

This is the old Liberal canard that gets trotted out every election

At least try to be original with such nonsense

The Conservatives could never win an election!!! Just look at how Harper was never able to form government!!!!! What a canard!!!!!!! Prime Minister Scheer is an impossibility!!!!!!!!!! Almost as impossible as President Trump!!!!!!!!!!!!

Sean in Ottawa

I disagree with both the posters in this thread who believe that the Liberals will likely win as well as those who believe that the Conservatives will likely win. This likelihood does not exist. There are many variables and storylines that could lead to minorities or majorities on both sides, nevermind, long shot possibilities of neither winning.

JKR

Pondering wrote:

It isn't impossible for the Conservatives to win but it is still unlikely. Canadians still approve of the Liberal budget. I'm 80% sure Trudeau will still get a second mandate. It would be nice if it's a minority mandate. 

I was 75% sure Hillary was going to be president.

NorthReport

Very well said indeed Sean!

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

I disagree with both the posters in this thread who believe that the Liberals will likely win as well as those who believe that the Conservatives will likely win. This likelihood does not exist. There are many variables and storylines that could lead to minorities or majorities on both sides, nevermind, long shot possibilities of neither winning.

robbie_dee

I agree that there is still a long time between now and the next election but I also agree with Jaime Watt that Trudeau's loss of 56 days and counting to this scandal with no end in sight looks very bad for him and his opportunities to change the channel from this scandal have already dwindled. I also think that it is unlikely that the NDP will be forming the next federal government given its untested leader, lack of resources and current distance back in the polls. In the case of a true Liberal collapse I could see Jagmeet finding his way to Stornaway. But I see Scheer as the most likely person to be sitting in the Prime Minister's chair by this fall and conservative parties generally ascendant across Canada right now (with a few exceptions as noted above). And I think the (broader) left needs a plan to respond to that.

Sean in Ottawa

robbie_dee wrote:

I agree that there is still a long time between now and the next election but I also agree with Jaime Watt that Trudeau's loss of 56 days and counting to this scandal with no end in sight looks very bad for him and his opportunities to change the channel from this scandal have already dwindled. I also think that it is unlikely that the NDP will be forming the next federal government given its untested leader, lack of resources and current distance back in the polls. In the case of a true Liberal collapse I could see Jagmeet finding his way to Stornaway. But I see Scheer as the most likely person to be sitting in the Prime Minister's chair by this fall and conservative parties generally ascendant across Canada right now (with a few exceptions as noted above). And I think the (broader) left needs a plan to respond to that.

There is a reason these super majorities do not happen easily and do not endure when they do. We have heard a great deal about the alternation principle (one way provincially another federally) in some provinces. The theory of intent for this I do not accept. But the theorey around the result has some strong arguments.

The pool of people for new candidates is not that great. When a party is in power at one jurisdiction it is hard to have the candidates to produce an all-star team at the other. This is a minor but existing issue.

The behind the scenes talent that wins campaigns and resources can be tapped out when a party is in power -- as people will gravitate to whichever side has the most capacity for hiring. This is actually more significant than many realize. When it comes to a-list talent for "rain-making" political campaigns there are not as many people as you might imagine.

The big one though: Political parties tend to organize their communications around their calendar and needs. Simplistically they upfront the pain and buy back the voters with popular policies by election time. This is often inconvenient for their cousins at the other jurisdiction. Provincial leaders also tend to show how they put their province first by bashing the feds (this is the reason that seldom do you see successful provincial leaders turn to federal politics with success). Provincial leaders at present may be leading polls but many are not that popular. They are not assets in the campaign for the federal conservatives: Ontario may see a backlash against federal Conservatives. In Quebec, I would lay no bets. I suspect that the BQ may rise and even return to the status of balance of power.

Paladin1

The conservatives will win, the only question is whether it will be a majority or minority government.

Trudeau tricked a lot of people with his looks and socks and babykissing and lovely promises.  Canadians are waking up to who the real Trudeau is. They're also waking up to who the Liberal party really is. I don't mean regular every day people, like those who may be on this forum, but those in power.

Ontario sent a message to the Liberals, Canada is going to send the same message.

Unfortunately the conservatives picked a lack-luster leader who is uninspiring.  I'd prefer to see Rona Ambrose, Lisa Raitt or even Michelle Rempel for conservative PM.

josh

Premature capitulation 

Aristotleded24

Paladin1 wrote:
Ontario sent a message to the Liberals, Canada is going to send the same message.

Last year the Liberal party started to fall in polling federally around the time of the Ontario election, due to spill-over from the fact that Ontarians were sick and tired of Liberal rule. Once the Liberals were defeated, federal polling numbers for the Liberals began to recover. It's only because of the SNC Lavalin thing that the Liberals are doing so badly. If this thing ever goes away, or if some dirt on the Conservatives begins to become public, then things will even out. Remember that it was only a few short years ago that we threw out the Harper Conservatives, and we still remember why we did that. Unfortunately the SNC thing reminds people of that in a negative way.

voice of the damned

JKR wrote:

Pondering wrote:

It isn't impossible for the Conservatives to win but it is still unlikely. Canadians still approve of the Liberal budget. I'm 80% sure Trudeau will still get a second mandate. It would be nice if it's a minority mandate. 

I was 75% sure Hillary was going to be president.

There are upsets, to be sure. But they shouldn't be taken as the default example when making predictions. I still think you need to show reasons why this election will be more like Clinton vs. Trump than, say, Clinton vs. Dole, in terms of who the likely winner will be.

And, at this point, I don't think SNC-Lavalin makes the cut as a determinant factor.

Paladin1

Aristotleded24 wrote:

Paladin1 wrote:
Ontario sent a message to the Liberals, Canada is going to send the same message.

Last year the Liberal party started to fall in polling federally around the time of the Ontario election, due to spill-over from the fact that Ontarians were sick and tired of Liberal rule. Once the Liberals were defeated, federal polling numbers for the Liberals began to recover. It's only because of the SNC Lavalin thing that the Liberals are doing so badly. If this thing ever goes away, or if some dirt on the Conservatives begins to become public, then things will even out. Remember that it was only a few short years ago that we threw out the Harper Conservatives, and we still remember why we did that. Unfortunately the SNC thing reminds people of that in a negative way.

 

I don't think you're wrong. I was happy to see Harper go after how he treated the military, military vets and firearm owners.

I know the SNC Lavalin thing doesn't mean much to die hard Liberal fans but I think it's a pretty huge thing. And I think so to does the rest of Canada. Trudeau isn't doing his image or his party any favours, which isn't a bad thing for Canada IMHO.

Webgear

If the NDP can't win this election then they should disband. 

JKR

NorthReport wrote:

It is the Liberals fault basically 100% why we keep getting Conservative governments. And the reason that is true is that the Liberals are deceivers just like we have seen with the SNC scandal. Liberals come out with false progressive platform out and promise bullshit and progressive voters vote for them, and then get angry at them, because of their Liberal lies. And because the Liberals do such a good job of discrediting the NDP, some of these progressive voters unfortunately in their frustration end up voting Conservative in the following election, because they do not like being lied to.  

Maybe the NDP should look in the mirror to see why it has been unsuccessful?

NorthReport

JKR

You sound a lot like Trudeau in his dealing with the 2 competent principled women he just booted out of Liberal Caucus, so my hunch is that Trudeau actually represents Liberal thinking, which is unfortunate, both for the future of the government and the country as well.  When the NDP political opposition are constantly lying, and they have the backing of all the media in Canada, it is not rocket science. I am not a big fan of the Toronto Sun, but their cover this morning asked: Is Trudeau a Fake Feminist? Nuff said. 

JKR wrote:

NorthReport wrote:

It is the Liberals fault basically 100% why we keep getting Conservative governments. And the reason that is true is that the Liberals are deceivers just like we have seen with the SNC scandal. Liberals come out with false progressive platform out and promise bullshit and progressive voters vote for them, and then get angry at them, because of their Liberal lies. And because the Liberals do such a good job of discrediting the NDP, some of these progressive voters unfortunately in their frustration end up voting Conservative in the following election, because they do not like being lied to.  

Maybe the NDP should look in the mirror to see why it has been unsuccessful?

Sean in Ottawa

I just created a prediction from gut feeling for every riding. It suggests the Conservatives getting the most seats but falling far short of majority. Also with the NDP falling short of balance of power which would fall to the BQ. I predicted significant gains for the BQ.

CPC 149 LPC 106 NDP 49 BQ 31 GR 2 IND 1

The NDP should not disband with a result like this!

Instead they will have to fight very hard to be able to put up a second campaign in a short time which will be excrutiatingly costly. In that campaign they need to actualy gain at least balance of power. That will be difficult but not impossible.

Paladin1

Conservative Majority, NDP in opposition.

NorthReport

Sean, your efforts are appreciated. I live in BC, so would it be asking too much for you to post your BC results. Thanks.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

I just created a prediction from gut feeling for every riding. It suggests the Conservatives getting the most seats but falling far short of majority. Also with the NDP falling short of balance of power which would fall to the BQ. I predicted significant gains for the BQ.

CPC 149 LPC 106 NDP 49 BQ 31 GR 2 IND 1

The NDP should not disband with a result like this!

Instead they will have to fight very hard to be able to put up a second campaign in a short time which will be excrutiatingly costly. In that campaign they need to actualy gain at least balance of power. That will be difficult but not impossible.

Sean in Ottawa

NorthReport wrote:

Sean, your efforts are appreciated. I live in BC, so would it be asking too much for you to post your BC results. Thanks.

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

I just created a prediction from gut feeling for every riding. It suggests the Conservatives getting the most seats but falling far short of majority. Also with the NDP falling short of balance of power which would fall to the BQ. I predicted significant gains for the BQ.

CPC 149 LPC 106 NDP 49 BQ 31 GR 2 IND 1

The NDP should not disband with a result like this!

Instead they will have to fight very hard to be able to put up a second campaign in a short time which will be excrutiatingly costly. In that campaign they need to actualy gain at least balance of power. That will be difficult but not impossible.

Please do not characterize these as results -- they are pure guesswork based on a review of past results and guesses of vote movements and net results and the politics. My assumption in doing this is that overall I will get soem right and miss some but that on balance some I miss will balance some I get wrong. In some cases I took one of two seats I thought might split.

Note there are cases where a bigger movement can change the winner -- like a couple ridings here where I think a movement from Liberal to NDP could result in a loss for the Conservatives. Only ridings that I took as changes are on the list.

Perhaps people from BC here can help correct this list.

BC

Cariboo PG C-NDP; Kamloops T C-NDP; Kelowna L-C; Cloverdale L-C; Mission L-C; Pitt Meadows L-NDP; Steveston L-C; Burnaby N L-C; Coquitlam L-NDP; Vancouver Granville L-Ind; Van S L-C; Victoria NDP-G

 

Webgear

Come on guys, be positive. The NDP should win this. 

JKR

NorthReport wrote:

JKR

You sound a lot like Trudeau....

Now that’s a low blow!

Pondering

JKR wrote:

I was 75% sure Hillary was going to be president.

I thought the idea of a clown like Trump winning was preposterous. This far out it is an art not a science. 

Conservative and NDP supporters are outraged. Some Liberal voters are unhappy in the moment but still like the Liberal budget. This is a wound no doubt but without more wounds this one will heal. 

Everyone answering these polls know there isn't an election tomorrow. They are answering off the cuff based on opinion of the parties in the immediate sense, not thinking about who they want to govern for the next 4 years. That only happens in the week or two before the election based on the top talking points of the leaders. 

I'm with voice of the damned on long term impact. I don't think SNC will be mentioned at all during the last weeks of the election. If so it will be in passing not one of the top three talking points. 

Paladin1 wrote:

They're also waking up to who the Liberal party really is. I don't mean regular every day people, like those who may be on this forum, but those in power.

I think they already knew. They also know who the Conservatives are. People don't trust politicians. The deciding moment in Trudeau's win was promising the deficit with Mulcair doing the opposite. He isn't going to be running on sunny ways this time. 

Paladin1 wrote:
Ontario sent a message to the Liberals, Canada is going to send the same message. 

The Ontario Liberals had been in power for eons so had a stack of scandals and disgruntled consituents a mile high. Trudeau has been in power for 4 years and Scheer is his main opposition. Many people appalled by Harper will swarm back to the Liberals if polls indicate a chance of a Conservative win. 

The Liberals are promising Phamacare which will be popular even though the NDP will criticize it as not going far enough. 

What is Scheer going to promise? Lower taxes? No deficit?

The NDP is the greater threat not to win but to push the Liberals into minority territory which I would consider a good outcome. 

I think the Conservatives are in a long decline because climate change is rising as a first tier issue along with other traditionally leftist concerns like housing affordability, education, health care and precarious work. 

Conservatives have had to drop climate change denial and social conservatism although they still try a little. They can't go full out anti-immigrant. 

There is still a very strong large Conservative core. I agree  Scheer might win. The SNC story isn't over so its legs may be longer than I think. JWR doesn't seem like she intends to quiet down any time soon. She may want to make the Liberals rue the day they ejected her from caucus. 

We now have the Butt's texts. The ball is in her court and so far she has always lobbed it back quite well. 

This whole thing is nothing if not amusing and riveting to watch. 

 

Aristotleded24

JKR wrote:
I was 75% sure Hillary was going to be president.

I was telling people in 2015 before the primaries happened that Hillary would not be President.

Pondering

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

I just created a prediction from gut feeling for every riding. It suggests the Conservatives getting the most seats but falling far short of majority. Also with the NDP falling short of balance of power which would fall to the BQ. I predicted significant gains for the BQ.

CPC 149 LPC 106 NDP 49 BQ 31 GR 2 IND 1

The NDP should not disband with a result like this!

Instead they will have to fight very hard to be able to put up a second campaign in a short time which will be excrutiatingly costly. In that campaign they need to actualy gain at least balance of power. That will be difficult but not impossible.

With those results the NDP could challenge the Liberals to overthrow the Conservatives with NDP support. They would have 6 more than the Conservatives. BQ, Green and IND could also be potential partners. 

Trudeau would have a hard time rejecting an offer after a decade of Conservatives and getting only 4 years then back to Conservative. BC has shown it can be done.  Accusations of it being undemocratic won't work. Liberal posturing that they could win the next election on their own won't work. Once Scheer gets 4 years he would be the incumbent and have the advantage. The Liberals will fear another decade in the wilderness. 

JKR

Aristotleded24 wrote:

JKR wrote:
I was 75% sure Hillary was going to be president.

I was telling people in 2015 before the primaries happened that Hillary would not be President.

Did you also think she would get the most votes?

Aristotleded24

JKR wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

JKR wrote:
I was 75% sure Hillary was going to be president.

I was telling people in 2015 before the primaries happened that Hillary would not be President.

Did you also think she would get the most votes?

No, but that doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things. Clinton understood going into the campaign that she needed swing states because racking up large votes in safe blue states wasn't going to cut it. You would think that they learned that lesson in 2000, but you would be wrong.

bekayne

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Perhaps people from BC here can help correct this list.

BC

Cariboo PG C-NDP; Kamloops T C-NDP; Kelowna L-C; Cloverdale L-C; Mission L-C; Pitt Meadows L-NDP; Steveston L-C; Burnaby N L-C; Coquitlam L-NDP; Vancouver Granville L-Ind; Van S L-C; Victoria NDP-G

I think Cariboo Prince George will probably go back to a comfortable Conservative win. 

NorthReport

Vancouver Kingsway Don Davies and Vancouver East Jenny Kwan will go NDP with Liberals probably second

Nanaimo Ladysmith will go NDP 

Burnaby South will go NDP Is Singh running here or is he headed back to Brampton for the general election

 

JKR

Aristotleded24 wrote:

JKR wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

JKR wrote:
I was 75% sure Hillary was going to be president.

I was telling people in 2015 before the primaries happened that Hillary would not be President.

Did you also think she would get the most votes?

No, but that doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things. Clinton understood going into the campaign that she needed swing states because racking up large votes in safe blue states wasn't going to cut it. You would think that they learned that lesson in 2000, but you would be wrong.

Having the head of the FBI say they are investigating you a little more than just a week before election day also didn’t help Hillary, especially in the swing states.

NorthReport

You got that right JKR

Aristotleded24

JKR wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

JKR wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:

JKR wrote:
I was 75% sure Hillary was going to be president.

I was telling people in 2015 before the primaries happened that Hillary would not be President.

Did you also think she would get the most votes?

No, but that doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things. Clinton understood going into the campaign that she needed swing states because racking up large votes in safe blue states wasn't going to cut it. You would think that they learned that lesson in 2000, but you would be wrong.

Having the head of the FBI say they are investigating you a little more than just a week before election day also didn’t help Hillary, especially in the swing states.

She has been the subject of an FBI investigation over her e-mails since 2015, and the Republicans had been going after her then. She still "won" the Democratic nomination. Let's look at what's happening in Alberta. Do you think the UCP was helped by the judge saying that the investigations into Kenney's actions around leadership are helping the UCP? Is that the judge's fault for interfering during a campaign, or the UCP's fault for tolerating that kind of behaviour?

alan smithee alan smithee's picture

Pondering wrote:

It isn't impossible for the Conservatives to win but it is still unlikely. Canadians still approve of the Liberal budget. I'm 80% sure Trudeau will still get a second mandate. It would be nice if it's a minority mandate. 

I'd prefer a majority but you're right.. There is a reality that the Liberals can and will get a minority. better than Scheer.

JeffWells

Pondering wrote:

Trudeau would have a hard time rejecting an offer after a decade of Conservatives and getting only 4 years then back to Conservative.

IMO if the Liberals lose government then Trudeau is gone, and heads will be spinning from how fast they shift to "Justin Who?" I think the Liberal Party will, as ever, prefer four years or more in the wilderness to a deal that could work to the NDP's strategic advantage.

WWWTT

JKR wrote:

Pondering wrote:

It isn't impossible for the Conservatives to win but it is still unlikely. Canadians still approve of the Liberal budget. I'm 80% sure Trudeau will still get a second mandate. It would be nice if it's a minority mandate. 

I was 75% sure Hillary was going to be president.

I 100% could care less!

WWWTT

alan smithee wrote:

Pondering wrote:

It isn't impossible for the Conservatives to win but it is still unlikely. Canadians still approve of the Liberal budget. I'm 80% sure Trudeau will still get a second mandate. It would be nice if it's a minority mandate. 

I'd prefer a majority but you're right.. There is a reality that the Liberals can and will get a minority. better than Scheer.

Ahh isn't that cute.

WWWTT

robbie_dee wrote:

With Andrew Scheer's Conservatives likely to form the next federal government out the ashes of Trudeau's SNC Lavelin implosion, and Jason Kenney's UCP still by far most likely to form the next government of Alberta, by this fall we will likely have a federal Conservative government and wall to wall right wing provincial governments from Edmonton to Fredericton. Six of nine Supreme Court Justices, including the Chief Justice, also were at least originally Harper appointees. What policies can we expect from this new alignment of political forces and how can the Canadian left organize against what I expect will be significant challenges?

You gotta be freekin jokin me man!

Canada, has always had a federal conservative government of one sort or another at the federal level. At the provincial level, many more times than not.

Pondering

WWWTT wrote:

alan smithee wrote:

Pondering wrote:

It isn't impossible for the Conservatives to win but it is still unlikely. Canadians still approve of the Liberal budget. I'm 80% sure Trudeau will still get a second mandate. It would be nice if it's a minority mandate. 

I'd prefer a majority but you're right.. There is a reality that the Liberals can and will get a minority. better than Scheer.

Ahh isn't that cute.

I'd prefer an NDP win I'm just not predicting it will happen because the NDP has never formed the government federally. There is a difference between what I would like to see happen and what I think will happen. 

A Liberal minority would give the NDP power it hasn't seen since 2005, so yeah I think it would be an excellent outcome for the NDP and for Canadians.

Ken Burch Ken Burch's picture

In 1944, the CCF had never formed a government in Saskatchewan.   Turned out not to matter.  Before 1972, the NDP had never formed government in B.C. .They formed one there and, while it was only in for 2 1/2 years, it left a legacy that significantly survived the sixteen years in opposition that followed.  The PQ had never formed government in Quebec prior to 1976(and had only existed for seven years up 'til then).  Didn't stop them from getting in and giving Quebec four years of solidly progressive, even social democratic to a large degree governance, a record they never repeated in any subsuquent term, but still.

What I'm saying there is, anything is possible and the situation may be uniquely in flux-especially if Justin were forced out before the election and replaced, as he likely would be, by a non-Quebec anglophone.

We could have a situation that would replicate the state of flux Canadian politics would have been in in 1968 if Pierre Trudeau had lost the Liberal leadership contest to Robert Winters, as he nearly did.  In that scenario, you'd have had an election where all parties had non-Quebec leaders.  At that point, neither of the old parties would have had leaders who were popular, voters in Quebec had administered catastrophic defeats to the Liberals AND the PC's within the past decade, voters overall would have been deeply alienated from both of the old parties.  In that situation, a year after the NDP had won 42% in a by-election in a Quebec riding, there was a real possibility that the NDP could have made a dramatic breakthrough, particularly if it had been open-minded and creative on the constitutional front.  

The NDP hasn't made that kind of electoral showing in Quebec recently-though the much better than expected showing in Outremont was a sign of hope there-but there is a huge state of flux now.  It is entirely possible that every mainstream political assumption in the last two years could be in question now.

 

 

JKR

WWWTT wrote:

JKR wrote:

Pondering wrote:

It isn't impossible for the Conservatives to win but it is still unlikely. Canadians still approve of the Liberal budget. I'm 80% sure Trudeau will still get a second mandate. It would be nice if it's a minority mandate. 

I was 75% sure Hillary was going to be president.

I 100% could care less!

I 100% could care less that you 100% could care less!! 

[I hope this doesn’t lead to an infinite regression]

WWWTT

No it’s cool JKR. I thought I was being funny or at the time I thought what I was writing was funny. But really I was probably being a dickhead. Sorry. It was one of those comments that I wrote and posted too quickly without thinking. 

JKR

I wouldn’t worry about it especially considering that posting comments too quickly without thinking helped someone become president of the world’s most powerful country.

Aristotleded24

robbie_dee wrote:
by this fall we will likely have a federal Conservative government and wall to wall right wing provincial governments from Edmonton to Fredericton.

Outside, long-shot possibility that Manitoba will buck this trend very soon.

Pondering

JKR wrote:

I wouldn’t worry about it especially considering that posting comments too quickly without thinking helped someone become president of the world’s most powerful country.

LOL you are swift.

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