What I am saying is the polling number of today are irrelevant as to what will happen in October.
The social manipulation may be cheap to get into but it is still competative. The right, which is wealthier will attack Trudeau and support the Conservatives. The left with attack Trudeau and support the NDP. The centre is boring and even if you can finance it, npbody will be interested. How do you think that will work out for Trudeau? Do you think the left will defend Trudeau???
As for climate initiatives, or any other, Trudeau is neutralized. The left will shred him as well as the right and nobody will believe him.
You better hope Singh does well. He might have a better chance than Trudeau. And it is maybe two snowball's chances in hell rather than Trudeau's one.
Buckle up. The Liberals blew this thing.
I definitely hope for Singh/NDP to make headway this election. What often happens with the Liberals being attacked by both left and right is Canadians decide that the Liberals are the happy inbetween.
You are right that polls matter little this far out which is why I don't predict a Conservative win and I don't interpret as if people are voting tomorrow because when they answer these polls they know they are not voting tomorrow.
The swing to the Conservatives is a reaction to the news but in my view it is preferred leader that will get the vote not party. You mentioned something in another thread suggesting that people vote party because when you were working in elections and the party wasn't mentioned that is what people would ask for. I think they asked for party affiliation because that would tell them the leader. It would be more awkward to phrase asking which representative was associated with which party leader.