The decline of the Conservatives

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Mighty Middle

Nanos Polling (the exclusive polling firm for CTV News) is the only polling firm with numbers showing the Conservatives within striking distance of winning the next election. Nik Nanos did a video the other day saying

"Trudeau's support craters after WE scandal, polling trajectory now favours Conservatives"

Again every other polling firm is showing the Liberals in a health lead - except Nanos as he claims the Conservative are very competitive - which I find strange because Canadians hardly know who O'Toole is, yet according to Nanos polling he is only a few points away from winning if an election were held today.

btw in the last election Nanos was ready to tell anyone who asked him that Justin Trudeau DID NOT win the last election. What happened is that Andrew Scheer lost, meaning according to Nanos, Trudeau only won by default.

Ken Burch

Mighty Middle wrote:

Nanos Polling (the exclusive polling firm for CTV News) is the only polling firm with numbers showing the Conservatives within striking distance of winning the next election. Nik Nanos did a video the other day saying

"Trudeau's support craters after WE scandal, polling trajectory now favours Conservatives"

Again every other polling firm is showing the Liberals in a health lead - except Nanos as he claims the Conservative are very competitive - which I find strange because Canadians hardly know who O'Toole is, yet according to Nanos polling he is only a few points away from winning if an election were held today.

btw in the last election Nanos was ready to tell anyone who asked him that Justin Trudeau DID NOT win the last election. What happened is that Andrew Scheer lost, meaning according to Nanos, Trudeau only won by default.

Given the popular vote breakdown, Nanos isn't totally wrong in saying that.  

melovesproles

There were Bernie supporters who voted for Trump in 2016 based on his promises to not sign the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement, and to withdraw U.S. troops from the middle east and Afghanistan. Democrats were promising neither.

Yeah, I don't know if it's the Bannon influence but Trump certainly knows where the faultlines are in the left and where to poke. It usually seems like little more than trolling when given any scrutiny but he certainly knows how to start with a decent premise before twisting it to steer sharply right.

Considering how badly the left is at exploiting those faultlines on the right, I think you have to give the Trumpists credit for at least doing their homework on their political enemies.

Pondering

Social conservatives have more than doubled their presence in the party. From 16% to 35%. 

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/social-conservatives-conservative-pa...

According to the Campaign Life Coalition, the anti-abortion advocacy group recruited more than 26,000 party members to support social conservative candidates Lewis and Ontario MP Derek Sloan. “More than twice” the number of members they recruited during the 2017 leadership race, said spokesperson Jack Fonseca in a news release. 

Support for social conservative candidates on the first ballot grew to 35 per cent in this year’s contest compared to 16 per cent three years ago, the group said, calling the bloc a “major and irreplaceable” part of the Conservative base. 

O'Toole is accusing Trudeau of reintroducing the Bills on assisted suicide and conversion "therapy" in order to be divisive. O'Toole has no choice but to allow a free vote. 

O'Toole can proclaim himself pro-choice all he likes the social conservatives within the party will still doom him just as they did Scheer. 

As moderates loose faith in the Conservative party's ability to win they will shift to the Liberals, or should I say continue shifting to the Liberals.  That is good news for the NDP. It will strengthen the Liberals for awhile but send progressives to the NDP. Unfortunately I see the NDP hewing to the centre. 

 

melovesproles

I can empathize with Pondering to the extent that I was similarily pollyannish about the impossibility of Harper becoming Prime Minister during the Paul Martin days. It just seemed incredible that Canadians would vote for a robotic, serial killer-eyed Republican bootlicker like Harper when Canadians were according to all polling at the time horrified by Bush, the Iraq war, the Patriot Act, Guantanamo Bay, and the increasingly theocratic turn of the conservative movement in North America.

The reality is that in FPTP in a multi-party system the bar is so low to win ridings and Conservative support while concentrated still allows them to be in striking distance of a minority government when Liberal support falls. Once in power they gain access to levers which allow them to expand their support in targeted ridings. They don't need to go directly to a majority government.

If the Liberals had kept their promise on electoral reform, we wouldn't have to worry about this anymore. But with our electoral system, you would have to be pretty oblivious to history if you do not think there will come a time when Canadians will feel the need to punish Liberal arrogance and corruption allowing the Conservatives to return to power.

Misfit Misfit's picture

Well, they elected Doug Ford in Ontario for cheap beer. What does that tell you about the depth and mentality of Canadians?

Pondering

Provincial and federal government are very different animals. Ford won by default because the Liberals had been in power for so many years. While he is a Conservative he isn't dealing with the pressures of the abortion isssues nor oil. 

Harper won because people thought he was leading the Progressive Conservative Party. That's what "the Conserveratives" always meant. Social Conservatives within the New Conservative Party kept quiet for Harper because they believed he would act in their favor once he had a majority. Harper betrayed social conservatives. Canada is the only developed nation with no legal limits on abortion at all. 

Social conservatives are not selling the party as socially conservative. They are on a crusade to make it so by getting pro-life MPs elected by signing up pro-life members and it is working.  Leslyn Lewis was almost elected leader. O'Toole is also facing intense pressure to do something about oil and to adhere to small government low taxes mandra by fiscal free marketers. 

The "Conservative" party embraced the Evangelical movement, racists, free marketers and the oil industry. They cannot win elections without those groups but those are the very groups that (for the most part) alienate the RoC.

The problem is not that O'Toole can't win an election. He is very likeable. Much more so than Trudeau at this point.  It is that he can't win while pandering to western concerns.

The NDP should push the narrative that the Conservatives cannot win a majority. Hammer it in. Attack conservative ideology.  Highlight how well the NDP and Liberals have worked together in the past as minority governments. 

Don't be shy about promoting strategic voting at the riding level not the national level. When the Conservatives are too weak to win the seat point that out. If you could win with the Green vote point that out. Talk a bit about PR and why the Liberals and Conservatives aer against it. Acknowledge its faults. Say there is no perfect system but there are ways to modify the system to suit Canada's specific needs. 

 

 

melovesproles

Harper won because people thought he was leading the Progressive Conservative Party.

No one thought that.

Aristotleded24

Pondering wrote:
The problem is not that O'Toole can't win an election. He is very likeable. Much more so than Trudeau at this point.  It is that he can't win while pandering to western concerns.

So are you advocating that the other parties just ignore large regions of the country? I would much rather the NDP take up the mantle of western alienation, make the Conservatives own the fact that they now represent the Ottawa establishment, and talk about how Liberals and Conservatives have failed this part of the country. There are so  many issues of concern to Western Canadians the NDP can take up that won't alienate other parts of the country, and doing so will result in the defeat of many Conservative MPs here.

Pondering wrote:
The NDP should push the narrative that the Conservatives cannot win a majority. Hammer it in. Attack conservative ideology.  Highlight how well the NDP and Liberals have worked together in the past as minority governments.

The NDP should be trying to capitalize on the frustration people feel with politics and offer an alternative that the other parties aren't. It should also highlight the results that can come from having more MPs elected. They shouldn't carry water for Liberals. Doing so is pointless because then you might as well vote Liberal. Minor parties need to give people permission to vote for them, and being perceived as favourable to one of the larger parties does not accomplish that end.

Pondering wrote:
Don't be shy about promoting strategic voting at the riding level not the national level. When the Conservatives are too weak to win the seat point that out. If you could win with the Green vote point that out.

"Strategic voting" in practice will always come across as voting Liberal to stop the Conservatives. The strategic voting approach has resulted in the election of at least 4 Conservative MPs by my count over Harper's term. This includes Bramalea-Gore Malton, where Jagmeet Singh narrowly lost to a Conservative despite almost no previous NDP history in the riding.

Pondering wrote:
Talk a bit about PR and why the Liberals and Conservatives aer against it. Acknowledge its faults. Say there is no perfect system but there are ways to modify the system to suit Canada's specific needs.

I support proportional representation, but we have to acknowledge that every time voters had a say on that subject, it went down in flames in all but one of the votes. Public support for it is not there. Furthermore, the NDP has no credibility on this issue, because no NDP goverment has ever enacted the policy. Finally, talk about how a proportional representation system essentially guarantees the Conservatives will never win a majority comes across more as a desire to game the system for political advantage rather than ensuring fair outcomes.

Misfit Misfit's picture

Pondering wrote:

"Ford won by default".

That is a strange response coming from someone who claims to support Jagmeet Singh and eco socialism. The NDP were in contention to win that election. The Liberals were in distant third place and we're on the verge of being wiped out completely.

The NDP won the Ontario election in 1990, so there was no default.

Pondering wrote:

"Don't be shy about promoting strategic voting at the riding level not the national level."

That is such a Liberal Party fantasy, and the Liberals and Leadnow promote exactly that during every Federal election to siphon away NDP support directly to the Liberal party. Strategic voting is so anti-NDP.

After your claims to support eco-socialism in Canada, it is good to have you back to your old self again.

Pondering wrote: "Minor parties need to give people permission to vote for them..."

And then in your decline of the Conservative Party your opinion is that the Conservstives will never win another election ever again. This statement from you really throws your hypothesis directly  into the trash can.

Pondering wrote: "While he is a Conservative he isn't dealing with the pressures of the abortion isssues nor oil."

Ontario has an oil industry and social conservstives are all across Canada. Leslyn Lewis is from Ontario and you cited her as being a real social Conservstive threat within the party. 

And the Roman Catholic Church is staunchly anti-abortion yet they are, by far, the largest religious denomination in Quebec.

Pondering wrote:

"The "Conservative" party embraced the Evangelical movement, racists, free marketers and the oil industry."

Justin Trudeau just recently gave the "oil industry" billions of dollars.

Pondering wrote: "They cannot win elections without those groups but those are the very groups that (for the most part) alienate the RoC."

Quebec is opposed to a pipeline in their province but that is not alienating people. That is anti western Canadian hatred coming from you.

Aristotleded24

Misfit wrote:
Ontario has an oil industry and social conservstives are all across Canada. Leslyn Lewis is from Ontario and you cited her as being a real social Conservstive threat within the party.

Thank you for pointing this out, Misfit. Many right-wing Christian fundamentalist organizations, if they aren't headquartered in southern Ontario, have a great deal of support there. In Dead Centre, NDP strategist Jamey Heath wrote that if you were to divide Ontario into 4 provinces the same way Western Canada is, then one of those provinces would be as reliably conservative as the province of Alberta is. Ontario's big geography helps conceal that. Not only that, but since the media headquarters are in Toronto, they tend to have that viewpoint and don't understand life outside of that bubble, even in their own province.

Finally, if the West is bigoted and Ontario is progressive, how do you explain that Calgary voted for Naheed Nenshi and Toronto voted for Rob Ford in the same year?

Pondering

melovesproles wrote:

Harper won because people thought he was leading the Progressive Conservative Party.

No one thought that.

Everyone assumes that this Conservative party is or was the same as the former Progressive Conservative Party. They don't think of it as a new party that was created by Harper because of the name.  If the name were still "The Reform Party" or "The Canadian Alliance" People wouldn't have voted for them.  

Now their true nature is being revealed through policy choices and rhetoric so even with the Conservative name they will be unable to win. They may be able to squeeze out another minority but that will be it because demographics are not on their side. 

In the states, Texas is in play because of demographics. Republicans will likely still win but it shouldn't even be close. The only reason it is is that many Americans do think of themselves and their families as Republicans or Democrats and will defend any president on "their side". 

North American demographics in the form of young people coming of age and immigrants will change politics. 

 

Left Turn Left Turn's picture

melovesproles wrote:

There were Bernie supporters who voted for Trump in 2016 based on his promises to not sign the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement, and to withdraw U.S. troops from the middle east and Afghanistan. Democrats were promising neither.

Yeah, I don't know if it's the Bannon influence but Trump certainly knows where the faultlines are in the left and where to poke. It usually seems like little more than trolling when given any scrutiny but he certainly knows how to start with a decent premise before twisting it to steer sharply right.

Considering how badly the left is at exploiting those faultlines on the right, I think you have to give the Trumpists credit for at least doing their homework on their political enemies.

Um, Trump actually kept his promise not to sign the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and he brought U.S. troops home from Syria.

Doesn't make up for all the other horrible things that Trump has done, including air stirkes on Syria, and the giant bomb dropped in Afghanistan, but it doesn't make those promises entirely phony either.

melovesproles

Um, Trump actually kept his promise not to sign the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and he brought U.S. troops home from Syria.

Doesn't make up for all the other horrible things that Trump has done, including air stirkes on Syria, and the giant bomb dropped in Afghanistan, but it doesn't make those promises entirely phony either.

Yeah, I never said he didn't do those things but I still say the appeal to Bernie voters was mainly concern trolling.

Troops were not all brought home, there was a lot of shuffling about within the region. One clear focus of the Trump administration was destroying any progress that had been made with improving relations with Iran and instead destabilizing the region. During peak points of tension, US troop numbers shot up in Saudi and the Gulf. I think that policy would only be pursued more recklessly if Trump didn't have to worry about reelection so the idea that he wants to reduce US troops in the region doesn't ring very true.

Not signing the TPP was great but that obviously had nothing to dow with labour rights, environmental protections or public healthcare since Trump has worked against all of those. Instead it is pretty consistent with the administration's belief that the US is stronger when it can work outside of multilateral agreements and institutions. Same reason he withdrew from the Paris accord and the Iran deal.

The Bernie to Trump voters have to be pretty selective with their data if they can't see any of this.

Aristotleded24

melovesproles wrote:

Um, Trump actually kept his promise not to sign the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and he brought U.S. troops home from Syria.

Doesn't make up for all the other horrible things that Trump has done, including air stirkes on Syria, and the giant bomb dropped in Afghanistan, but it doesn't make those promises entirely phony either.

Yeah, I never said he didn't do those things but I still say the appeal to Bernie voters was mainly concern trolling.

Troops were not all brought home, there was a lot of shuffling about within the region. One clear focus of the Trump administration was destroying any progress that had been made with improving relations with Iran and instead destabilizing the region. During peak points of tension, US troop numbers shot up in Saudi and the Gulf. I think that policy would only be pursued more recklessly if Trump didn't have to worry about reelection so the idea that he wants to reduce US troops in the region doesn't ring very true.

Not signing the TPP was great but that obviously had nothing to dow with labour rights, environmental protections or public healthcare since Trump has worked against all of those. Instead it is pretty consistent with the administration's belief that the US is stronger when it can work outside of multilateral agreements and institutions. Same reason he withdrew from the Paris accord and the Iran deal.

The Bernie to Trump voters have to be pretty selective with their data if they can't see any of this.

Let's take an average worker from the rust belt of the United States who doesn't pay close attention to politics. Suppose this particular voter has seen the impact of the trade deals on the economy and physical and mental health of people in his or her community. You have Clinton, whose husband championed such deals while in office. You have Trump railing against them at every opportunity and promising to bring jobs back. How is this voter supposed to vote?

melovesproles

You have Clinton, whose husband championed such deals while in office. You have Trump railing against them at every opportunity and promising to bring jobs back.

I wasn't talking about Clinton. My point is that now that Trump has a record I think it is pretty clear he was concern trolling. Obviously, not paying attention is a good way to not pick up on that but I'd say a lot of Bernie voters were paying attention and that's why they supported him. When Trump is a dark horse candidate taking shots at the establishment on a campaign podium, it's easy to imagine that he might be on your side but even though he technically kept some of his promises like Left Turn rightly points out, an average worker should be able to see whose side he is on since he has been in power. 

I agree that it was a brilliant move railing against free trade and foreign wars when he ran against Clinton. Now that he has a record, how do you think the Bernie-to-Trump supporter grades him on:

a) Standing up for workers?

b) Decreasing America's military presence abroad?

Pondering

Pondering wrote:

"Ford won by default".

Misfit wrote: That is a strange response coming from someone who claims to support Jagmeet Singh and eco socialism. The NDP were in contention to win that election. The Liberals were in distant third place and we're on the verge of being wiped out completely.

They were momentarily in contention when the Conservatives either had no leader or still had the leader being accused of sexual misconduct.  Had that not changed then the NDP would have won by default. That is, voters were voting against the Liberals not for the NDP or Conservatives. The truth doesn't change based on who you support politically. 

 I am specifically a Lascaris eco-socialist not one in general because it may include positions I don't agree with.  

Pondering wrote:"Don't be shy about promoting strategic voting at the riding level not the national level."

Misfit wrote: That is such a Liberal Party fantasy, and the Liberals and Leadnow promote exactly that during every Federal election to siphon away NDP support directly to the Liberal party. Strategic voting is so anti-NDP.

Like I said, not nationally. Lead now is national. The federal NDP are national. When I say riding level I mean riding level. I mean the MP in a specific riding in which the NDP are in contention but it could go Liberal. In the past Liberals scared voters into thinking the Conservatives might win so they better vote Liberal to keep the Conservatives out. If the polls are showing that the Conservatives are not in contention nationally, the candidate can use that to reassure voters that they can still keep the Liberals in check by voting NDP to keep them to a minority. The NDP are not in contention to win the next election. There will be no orange wave in Quebec under Singh. 

Misfit wrote: Ontario has an oil industry and social conservstives are all across Canada. Leslyn Lewis is from Ontario and you cited her as being a real social Conservstive threat within the party. 

Of course there are social conservatives across the country. In most, but not all, areas there aren't enough of them to give the Conservatives seats without also attracting other voters through policy. Other oil producing areas don't feel alienated and have no problem with the Liberal government. 

Misfit wrote: And the Roman Catholic Church is staunchly anti-abortion yet  they are, by far, the largest religious denomination in Quebec.

I am Roman Catholic as was my husband and as is my daughter. At least that is what it says on our birth certificates. Quebec is a strong supporter of women's right to choose. Morgentaler was from here. Roman Catholic women marched in support of him when he was arrested. Roman Catholics are not Evangelical. Confess once a week and we're good. 

Pondering wrote "The "Conservative" party embraced the Evangelical movement, racists, free marketers and the oil industry."

Misfit wrote: Justin Trudeau just recently gave the "oil industry" billions of dollars.

Yeah and a lot of good it did him. How many seats did he win in Alberta? 

Misfit: Quebec is opposed to a pipeline in their province but that is not alienating people. That is anti western Canadian hatred coming from you.

I love the west. Quebecis not alienated. We're fine. 

O'Toole is specifically accusing Trudeau of being divisive and is constantly harping on western alienation. He got mixed up between Legault and voters. Legault wants to take over collecting and processing federal taxes. It is not something Quebecers want. Quebecers had to rely on the federal army to save us. Quebecers want federal money for infrastructure projects and anything else that comes up. We want more gun laws. We don't care what O'Toole thinks about the pipeline because it is not, under any circumstances, going through. We don't need O'Toole's reassurance because we are 100% confident on that. O'Toole also said he won't interfere with Bill 21. It doesn't matter.

O'Toole is trying to drag Quebec into his alienation narrative but we don't feel alienated. Legault wants more power not Quebecers. All we want is money. Trudeau will give us more than O'Toole. 

O'Toole is the one causing divisiveness by pushing the western alienation narrative and trying to drag Quebec into it. 

The RoC is focused on Covid and wants maximum support from the federal government. All the provinces need help. We don't care about the alienation thing. That doesn't mean we don't care about Alberta. It means this is the wrong time to demand special treatment. O'Toole is alienating the RoC from the Conservative party. 

Conservative ideology has nothing to offer but more of the same tax and service cuts. 

Pondering

O'Toole is going Trump lite.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/o-toole-and-kenney-sit-side-by-side-for-...

NOBLEFORD, ALTA. -- Conservative Leader Erin O'Toole praised Alberta Premier Jason Kenney for his province's handling of COVID-19 as the two sat side-by-side during a livestream on Saturday, while neither leader wore a mask.

"I'm the easiest guy to hang out with because I can't give it or get it from anyone for four months," O'Toole said, answering Kenney's question about how O'Toole was doing after he and his wife got the novel coronavirus last month....

O'Toole told Kenney that getting COVID-19 helped him know what many families are facing, particularly in provinces that he said haven't managed the crisis as well as Alberta.

....

O'Toole praised Alberta's leadership in offering COVID-19 testing in pharmacies, as well as less restrictive measures with respect to the economy.

"This is only in Alberta. My province, many other provinces, there hasn't been as strong a reaction. Thank you," O'Toole told Kenney.

Health authorities recommend people follow the same health guidelines even if they have already had it. O'Toole's claim of being immune is false. There is evidence of people catching it twice. Aside from that he is supposed to be an example to people. 

He is using the same line as Trump in saying now that he has had it he now understands it better. 

He is praising Alberta while dissing all the other provinces. 

Many provinces are either happy with the restrictions or want more restrictions not less. 

He is not going to be able to balance his messages to his base in Alberta and his national messages or messages to the east. 

Pondering

Another nail in O'Toole's coffin.

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/joe-biden-president-canada_ca_5fa1d9...

Biden has said he will cancel Trump’s approval of the Keystone XL pipeline, which is expected to carry 830,000 barrels of oil a day from Alberta to Nebraska. ...

Alberta Premier Jason Kenney said last month that halting the pipeline would “undermine the single most important trade relationship that the United States has in the world.” At a press conference last Friday, Trudeau noted that he has been a strong supporter of Keystone for seven years and pledged to keep championing the project.

O'Toole is going to be forced to play hardball on pushing Keystone through. He will be expected to bitterly criticize Trudeau for not getting it through. 

Most Canadians will be, "if the US says no, it's no, we can't force them". We want to mend the relationship with the US and  will not want disappointment over Keystone to damage our relationship in any way. O'Toole's Trump attack style is not going to play well with Canadians. It will underline how Alberta centric he is. 

laine lowe laine lowe's picture

When will conservatives, especially those in Alberta, recognize that the writing is on the wall for the oil industry? It's like flogging a dead horse.

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