The decline of the federal Conservatives founded in 2003

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melovesproles

Pondering wrote:

The Conservatives are not going to win a minority. If they even come close strategic voting will come into play to keep the Liberals in power. 

The narrative that the Liberals are struggling to that extent is very bad for the NDP.

Gotta manage that 33% "democratic mandate." 

NorthReport

Erin O'Toole is originally is from Montreal, Quebec, and is the MP for Durham, Ontario. 

Pondering

It doesn't matter because his talk is still western centric and ideologically conservative. 

kropotkin1951

Pondering wrote:

It doesn't matter because his talk is still western centric and ideologically conservative. 

I can tell you as some one who actually lives in the West his talk is not "Western centric" any more than Bernier's is "Quebec centric."

Pondering

kropotkin1951 wrote:

Pondering wrote:

It doesn't matter because his talk is still western centric and ideologically conservative. 

I can tell you as some one who actually lives in the West his talk is not "Western centric" any more than Bernier's is "Quebec centric."

You may not think so but as someone who lives in the East he is. Not west coast, western. 

melovesproles

Pondering wrote:

kropotkin1951 wrote:

Pondering wrote:

It doesn't matter because his talk is still western centric and ideologically conservative. 

I can tell you as some one who actually lives in the West his talk is not "Western centric" any more than Bernier's is "Quebec centric."

You may not think so but as someone who lives in the East he is. Not west coast, western. 

I think I've finally cracked the decoder ring on how you use these geographic terms:

  • The West = Alberta
  • The East = Quebec

I'll just do that substitution now and I think your posts will make more sense.

Pondering

melovesproles wrote:

Pondering wrote:

kropotkin1951 wrote:

Pondering wrote:

It doesn't matter because his talk is still western centric and ideologically conservative. 

I can tell you as some one who actually lives in the West his talk is not "Western centric" any more than Bernier's is "Quebec centric."

You may not think so but as someone who lives in the East he is. Not west coast, western. 

I think I've finally cracked the decoder ring on how you use these geographic terms:

  • The West = Alberta
  • The East = Quebec

I'll just do that substitution now and I think your posts will make more sense.

Nope. 

  • BC = West Coast
  • Alberta, Saskachewan, Manitoba =  "The West"
  • Ontario = Ontario (central)
  • Quebec = Quebec (central but not really)
  • Maritimes = Atlantic Canada not including Quebec which is also on the Atlantic Ocean.
  • East Coast = You mean the maritimes? 
jerrym

As much as I would like to see the Cons continue to decline, in this election not only are they growing in number, this is even more so for the more right wing PPC of Maxine Bernier, considering where they are starting from without much media attention. This raises the question of whether Covid has moved part of the problem even further to the right, perhaps frustrated business owners whose businesses have been shut down or significantly had to decrease operations or libertarians who oppose increased regulation associated with Covid. The combination of the PPC and Con vote below now totals 40.3% of the vote, so is no longer hovering around 30% that we saw before. It also raises the question of whether the Cons will push further right during the election or if they should get elected to power to attract some of the PPC vote, as well as the Maverick party independistes in the West. It is far from what I want, but I think it is time to raise this question. Paul has also done more to sink Green fortunes than anyone would have thought possible a year ago. 

Averaging the last 6 polls on Wikipedia (Sept 1-2) and with the PPC now ahead of the Greens the results are 

Cons 35.1

Libs 30.6

NDP 19.5

Bloc 5.4

PPC 5.2

Grn 3.5

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2021_Canadian_fede...

melovesproles

jerrym wrote:

This raises the question of whether Covid has moved part of the problem even further to the right, perhaps frustrated business owners whose businesses have been shut down or significantly had to decrease operations or libertarians who oppose increased regulation associated with Covid.

I think both of those factors are true to an extent. I think the fact that the 'economy' was going to be an issue that the Conservatives would be able to tap into is based on a lot of their issues gaining currency with the public: deficits, inflation, labour shortages, government regulations etc. I don't think that that narrative needed to be dominant though if there had been a strong left counternarrative based on government spending on fighter jets, pipelines and oil and gas subsidies but politically the electoral left platforms have been a lot quieter on these issues. This is a common problem with the electoral left: they like to ignore populist issues and let the right take over that space.

I also think a lot of people underestimated O'Toole. When he was dropping in the polls, it was pretty clearly in regions where Conservative seats were safe. He was clearly priming the arugment that he was not so 'extreme' for Ontario voters and willing to take a hit with his base. Which was not dumb. Ditto with the narrative on 'mandatory vaccinations.' The idea that he was going to get smoked on this issue never made sense to me. A lot of people support vaccinations but balk at 'forced' vaccinations. That's not the same thing as 'mandatory' vaccinations for people who want to go to public events (which a far larger number of people support) but the language can be easily conflated and confused. O'Toole's position that he got vaccinated but doesn't want to 'force' others to do the same is not as much of an outlier as the media was trying to say. I know a lot of people who fall into that category. Sometimes being willing to take a hit from the media can have a payoff which is rarely something I see the NDP cognizant of.

jerrym wrote:

The combination of the PPC and Con vote below now totals 40.3% of the vote, so is no longer hovering around 30% that we saw before. It also raises the question of whether the Cons will push further right during the election or if they should get elected to power to attract some of the PPC vote, as well as the Maverick party independistes in the West. It is far from what I want, but I think it is time to raise this question.

I think that would be really hard to pull off this election and I highly doubt the Conservatives go there. The Conservative success has been because they've been able to convince enough Canadians they aren't that scary and that they might be better than an antidemocratic Liberal party that doesn't know how to count to 169. In a lot of ways having the more extreme rightwingers in a separate party has been really beneficial to them. I'm not saying you are wrong about step 2 of their plan though. I could imagine a Conservative minority government that is a little more entrenched making an appeal to those voters in the next election.

jerrym wrote:

Paul has also done more to sink Green fortunes than anyone would have thought possible a year ago. 

Sorry, but that sounds like hyperbole. When Paul was elected as leader, I assumed they would have a terrible election. She came off as extemely arrogant and condescending in the leadership debates and offered nothing that was in any way significantly different than the other parties. I'm not surprised the Greens are having a very bad election. They have no reason to exist if they aren't offering a real alternative.

melovesproles

I meant to add this to the end of the my previous post but I created another one.

Edited to Add: I feel like things can come off the wrong way very easily on discussion forums so I want to make it clear that I'm not attacking you as a person by disagreeing with some of your points here. Your threads on money laundering in BC and Climate Change are the some of the most informative things I've read on Canadian political sites over the last couple of year and I've forwarded them to several people.

Pondering

The Conservative Party will never win another federal election because this is what they must do but can't do. 

https://globalnews.ca/news/8209741/canada-election-results-what-happens-...

O’Toole gambled big by swinging the Conservative Party to the centre of the political spectrum, but was not able to oust Trudeau from the Prime Minister’s Office....

But unlike with Scheer’s election loss, there are already strong voices from within the party speaking out about the need to rally around O’Toole rather than kick him to the curb, and search for a new leader.....

Matthew Conway, one of the Quebec representatives on the party’s national council of members, said Conservatives will need to do a post-mortem to figure out what could’ve been done better.

But he said in a minority government, changing leaders after each election simply isn’t realistic......

A former Conservative candidate and ex-political staffer, Conway said the post-mortem on the election results will need to take a hard look at why some Liberal attacks over things like the party’s positions on abortion access and firearms control resonated with voters.....

“The Liberals will play the fear game and we need to be ready to defend ourselves on that. We need to realize also that the Morgentaler abortion decision was in 1988,” he said, adding more can be done to make it clear O’Toole is pro-choice.

“But also people in our party need to stop fighting battles that were fought many years ago. It’s 2021. … Continuing to fight these battles just allows Justin Trudeau and his corrupt government to continue getting elected, and that doesn’t serve Canada.”....

Skogstad also noted O’Toole may be able to stave off leadership challenges with the fact that the People’s Party of Canada, the far-right group led by ex-Tory Maxime Bernier, didn’t win a single seat in the House of Commons in the election....

If O’Toole can demonstrate he has a plan to keep building on the pivot to the centre and turn that into more votes, he may have a chance to stay on that Scheer did not get, she suggested.

“A little more than a third of his caucus is going to be from Saskatchewan and Alberta, and we can expect those MP’s to take issue with the kind of campaign that he ran, which is to try to move the party to the centre, make it look much more like an old Progressive Conservative Party,” she said.

“I think he can justifiably argue that the pathway to a national government in Canada does have to be to hold much more toward the centre.”

He is absolutely right but a large portion of the party's members and supporters don't consider winning as the PCs a win. They certainly don't consider abortion and gun control to be closed issues. Not even close.

The Conservative strategists know that they can't win as the reform party in sheep's clothing. They can only win as the PCs, but the PCs no longer exist. They are no more united than when the Reform party split off. They came back and took over. Pretending to be the Conservative party didn't work.  

JKR

The Conservatives would have had a great chance at forming the government if they had won just 20 more seats. That sounds very doable to me. They are still at least in a strong  second place position like they've been in for 100 years or so.

NorthReport

Of course they are capable of forming government (thank goodness for Maxime Bernier), and O'Toole appears to know the drill of what is required, which is moving the Conservatives towards the middle, and which is how elections are usually won in Canada.

Pondering

NorthReport wrote:
Of course they are capable of forming government (thank goodness for Maxime Bernier), and O'Toole appears to know the drill of what is required, which is moving the Conservatives towards the middle, and which is how elections are usually won in Canada.

If Bernier followers were part of the Conservative party they would have done even worse. Pushing even more to the centre simply won't be allowed by the membership. They will split off again into another Reform Party. The Conservative "floor" of about 26% is not delivered by moderates. If that were the case Peter MacKay would be leading the party.

The party executive desperately wants to put away the LBGTQ2 and abortion issues aside by declaring the leader's support and acceptance while allowing opponents "freedom of conscience" because that means there is no threat of legislation being passed. That should take the issue off the table. Same goes with promoting vaccination but not rquiring candidates to make their status public. 

That might have been good enough 10 or 20 years ago but it isn't anymore. Now they are the equivalent of the mark of the beast for educated people. It's like being racist. You can't say a party isn't racist if it has racist MPs. You can't say a party is pro LBGTQ2 while having MPs who are not. 

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/21/erin-otoole-canada-conservative...

“There is an open question about whether there's a kind of structural problem built into the Conservative Party's voter composition,” he said.

It isn't an open question. There is. Free marketers (otherwise called libertarians) and fiscal conservatives fed social conservatism, evangelicalism, as part of their formula for winning. Social conservatism and calls for freedom of religion was their tactic for gaining immigrant support. Unfortunately a core constituency is white and anti-immigration. Dog whistling to them have damaged their changes with immigrants. 

Demographics are dooming the Conservatives. Climate change and income/wealth inequality are THE issues of the century. The baby boomer parents are dying off and so are boomers. That great big bulge of voters that favored Conservatives, Liberals and don't rock the boat governments are losing power. 

Every generation coming up now is that much more freaked out over both climate change and income inequality. The latest are coming of age during Covid. Housing independence from their parents is going to be huge. We are increasingly depending on immigration to increase our population and economy. Housing is high on the list for them as well. 

The Conservative philosophy has no means of addressing current challenges because by their nature solving them demands massive government intervention. 

JKR

Pondering, it seems to me that what you're saying is that the Conservatives no longer have a chance at winning. If that is true aren't you basically saying that the Liberals are going to be in power indefinitely?

Pondering

JKR wrote:

Pondering, it seems to me that what you're saying is that the Conservatives no longer have a chance at winning. If that is true aren't you basically saying that the Liberals are going to be in power indefinitely?

I hope not but yes I do see the Liberals in power indefinitely during which they will continue their rightward drift as fiscal conservatives lose all faith in the Conservative Party. This could lead to Liberal majorities but sooner or later there will be a flip left.  How far left I do not know.  Could just be the NDP or could be a new eco-socialist party with or without Lascaris. 

Separatism will grow in Alberta as it hits home the oil industry is in permanent decline and there will be no rescue forthcoming that can return Alberta to the boom times. They will have to learn to pay for government services and they won't like that. The rest of Canada will have to learn to live without major equalization payments. 

We have hard times coming. We got lucky that Trudeau didn't get his majority and that the NDP is in a position to prevent the Liberals from turning hard right. I hope Singh will be a good negotiator and not promise to support the Liberals until the pandemic is over. 

melovesproles

The Cons would be dumb to dump O'Toole. Canadians liked him more after the elction than they did before it and he managed to not suffer much electoraly even though the most toxic elements in his party left him for the purple party. The Cons have room to grow which hasn't been true in a while.

What really hurt them in the election was:

a) I think most Canadians were happy that we didn't have a Conservative government when Covid broke out. Covid is still going on.

b) That hokey Air Miles Personal Carbon Credit account idea is a complete joke. This is the most important issue facing humanity. The Liberals have shown the bar is low but it's not that low.

Pondering

Where is the room left to grow for Conservatives?  What constituency will they pick up? How will they make up for their ever shrinking percentage of support from young voters? 

You're saying the loss of the toxic elements of the party hurt him electorally. Do you think their returning to the party would be helpful? I think they would further repel moderates. 

O'Toole is very likeable. Having a likeable leader isn't the problem. Policy is the problem. 

Concerning your point "a". Covid is not going away any time soon. The post-Covid recovery will require lots of continued spending. 

His "hokey" climate plan was too far left for many within the party. The Conservative party will always drag their feet on climate change. They will continue to be too little too late. O'Toole might have won the 2019 election but times are changing. 

Trudeau is the least liked of the leaders yet remains first choice as PM. 

To grow, the Conservative party will have to stop being the Conservative party but if they ditch even 20% of their base they can't make up for it by winning moderates. The base doesn't have to vote for a different party. They just have to stay home. I forget which article but a very recent one from a Conservative put their base at 26% and their ceiling at 35%. That's a very low ceiling. A large number of NDP/Liberal voters will vote strategically to prevent another Conservative win. 

Gathering socially and economically conservative immigrants into the fold was a good strategy that could have worked but for the anti-immigrant elements within the party that released dog whistles and remain within the party's support base. 

Growing populations in Canada include young people coming of age and immigrants. The Liberals better watch out too because the young seem to be going NDP. 

I'm not saying they are going to shrink a lot but they won't grow. The full seat count isn't in yet but didn't they just lose two more seats against the likes of Justin Trudeau? He stumbles from gaffe to gaffe if he goes off script. 

Climate change cares not a jot about politics. It can't be wished away or swept under the carpet. It will get exponentially worse. Fires? You ain't seen nothing yet. Heat waves? We haven't really felt them yet. Give it another 5 or 10 years. Death count will increase. For at least the next 30 years climate change will increase exponentially not linearly. 

We are going to have a much harder time viewing ourselves as moral while we prevent desperate refugees from reaching our shores while we pat ourselves on the back for accepting those who risk their lives trying to get here. 

Ecosocialism is going to have to rise fast because there is a chance Canada could go extreme right as the need for security increases. We will either share our water with the US or watch the Great Lakes get drained. 

Climate change money is going into mitigation because it can't be stopped over the short term. Without barriers New York will go under water. Personally I think New York and many other major cities will have to move over the next century.  They will become underwater marvels. 

Even if we stopped burning fossil fuels 100% tomorrow the above will still happen. What we do today to prevent climate change will only have an impact 30 to 40 years from now. So from now until then things would continue to get worse. 

I think history will look back upon these times and judge us worse than Hitler's Germany and not just the wealthy. Worse than the Dark Ages even. We cannot plead ignorance nor helplessness. Greed and self-indulgence are portrayed as success and individualism praised for making it possible. 

JKR

Pondering wrote:

Where is the room left to grow for Conservatives?  

In Ontario? If the Conservatives had won as many seats as the PC's did in the last Ontario election the Conservatives would be forming a federal government now.

kropotkin1951

JKR wrote:

Pondering wrote:

Where is the room left to grow for Conservatives?  

In Ontario? If the Conservatives had won as many seats as the PC's did in the last Ontario election the Conservatives would be forming a federal government now.

A majority Harper government included a few Vancouver Island seats and all of Richmond and the Fraser Valley. These areas are right wing strongholds and the voters are not going to any other party. A few thousand votes in key ridings and the Conservatives gain at least a half a dozen seats. In this region there is no place for the Liberals, the Central Canadian ruling party, to grow but plenty of room for the Conservatives to go back to Harper era voting patterns.

Pondering

JKR wrote:

Pondering wrote:

Where is the room left to grow for Conservatives?  

In Ontario? If the Conservatives had won as many seats as the PC's did in the last Ontario election the Conservatives would be forming a federal government now.

Well that's my point. They aren't winning those seats. There is no reason for me to believe they ever will. The Liberals lost power because they were incredibly long in the tooth. It's a wonder they didn't lose sooner. With a different leader they might have still won. Most people are not voting on ideological lines. They are voting on the issues that matter to them. Climate change is right up there and rising for everyone. 

Harper won because of the sponsorship scandal and coming across as a boring bookkeeper who would follow through on promises of transparency. He won his minorities because the Liberals offered up Dion and Ignatieff. Trudeau won once he proved he could stumble through a debate and had some campaign promises. 

Ontario will vote for the party they believe will give them the most. I noticed that during the campaign Conservatives went silent on western alienation and the threat of separation. That means it is going over like a stone in Central Canada. The ever popular Legault endorsed the Conservatives. It still didn't help them. The Conservatives have offers Ligault likes but not that Quebecers like. All the provinces are looking for money. 

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/21/erin-otoole-canada-conservative...

xpanding the voter pool: Sean Speer, who was a policy adviser to former Conservative prime minister Stephen Harper, said when it comes to voter support the Tories have the highest floor among the major parties.

For instance, Speer says the party's loyal base means a leader can pretty much count on getting at least 26 percent of the vote in any given election.

On the other hand, he said the party also has the challenge of a relatively low ceiling with an approximate maximum, on a good day, of about 35 percent support.

https://ca.sports.yahoo.com/news/erin-otoole-conservatives-popular-vote-...

Tory candidates across the country received 34.1 per cent of the total number of votes cast in the 2021 federal election as of 1:10 a.m. on Tuesday, amounting to 35.8 per cent of the total number of seats (121 seats). The Liberals finished behind their rivals with 31.8 per cent of the total number of votes cast, but were able to take 46.2 per cent of the total seats (156 seats).

Put those two together. 35% ceiling, and 34.1% delivering a loss by a lot of seats. There is extremely little space for the Conservatives to pick up seats. By far the majority of voters are Liberal/NDP and do vote strategically to block the Conservatives. 

melovesproles

Pondering wrote:

You're saying the loss of the toxic elements of the party hurt him electorally.

No, I'm saying it barely hurt them at all. Scheer pandered much more to these elements and got pretty much the same results. I get that O'Toole didn't win but this is addition by subtraction. I think having the fringe leave for the PPC and not doing that much to damage the seat count gives O'Toole room to grow. I get that he didn't win and there will be an internal move to oust him but I think he has room to grow the party that wasn't there with Scheer.

The fluctuation in the polls during the election showed enough Canadians were willing to give the Conservatives a look for a potential minority government. Uncertainty about how they would handle Covid and the Cons' ridiculous climate plan meant a lot of these voters ultimately went with the devil they knew. It also didn't help that the NDP were so focused on the Liberals. The NDP doesn't seem to get that one of the things that would make voters who are worried about a Conservative government less worried is knowing the NDP is prepared to take that Conservative agenda on. By ignoring the Cons in the campaign it reminds Liberal/NDP swing voters that the NDP were ineffective at controlling the debate during the Harper years.

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