Election Polling April 26

131 posts / 0 new
Last post
edmundoconnor

JeffWells wrote:

Speechless.

 

Waiting to see how The Toronto Star plays this. Or buries it.

So far, crickets. Nothing on the Star's politics page, or anywhere else.

NorthReport

Forget all those Liberal strategic voting sites which are useless and which could end up helping Harper if you listened to them. Read what Alice Funke at punditsguide.com has to say about them.

Pogo Pogo's picture

As much as I disagree with Elizabeth May's leadership style and feel that the Green party policies are a work in progress, I think Canada would be better off with Green representation in the House of Commons.

As much as this election has been about corruption, the economy and healthcare, the fact is that our planet is collapsing around us and we need as many voices calling for action as possible.

Aristotleded24

edmundoconnor wrote:
JeffWells wrote:
Speechless.

 

Waiting to see how The Toronto Star plays this. Or buries it.

So far, crickets. Nothing on the Star's politics page, or anywhere else.

Any comments from The Toronto Star about Fortress Toronto crumbling under the Rob Ford effect?

Michelle

Here's the link to Fife's post of the Angus Reid poll:

http://twitter.com/#!/RobertFife/status/63018517284401152

adma

Aristotleded24 wrote:
Any comments from The Toronto Star about Fortress Toronto crumbling under the Rob Ford effect?

Well...that *may* be a cloud looming over it all.  With those numbers, the Tories might wind up getting Volpe/Dryden/Oliphant *and* Don Valley East and perhaps even Willowdale, a Scarborough seat or two or three, and a sweep of Etobicoke (yes, including Iggy).  Note: Tories.  *Not* NDP.

Anonymouse

Apparently the Leger poll that will come out later this week shows the NDP continuing to surge upwards in QC.

NorthReport

Merci Michelle.

---------------

It's absolutely incredible to see the NDP at 30% - this really is a Canadian political tsunami

How many seats will Jack Layton get with 30% support?

Most Recent polling:

Date / Pollster / Cons / NDP / LIbs / Bloc
Apr 26 / Angus R / 35% / 30% / 22% / 5% NDP within 5% of first place

Apr 25 / EKOS / 33.9% / 27/9% / 24% / 6%
Apr 24 / EKOS / 33.7% / 28% / 23.7% / 6.2%

Apr 24 / Nanos / 39.2% / 23.6% / 25.6% /
Apr 21 / Envi / 39% / 25% / 22% /
Apr 20 / Ipsos / 43% / 24% / 21% / 6%
Apr 16 / Angus R / 36% / 25% / 25% /

 

Bärlüer

There will be a new Ipsos Reid-La Presse tonight (per Vincent Marissal's twitter feed).

gadar

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

Angus Reid

Cons 35%

NDP 30%

Libs 22%

BQ 5%

The beat goes on

 

NorthReport

I hope everyone is bracing themselves for the  Nanos Research poll tomorrow and I'm sure Ipsos Reid will be out with a poll soon as well. 

finois finois's picture

 Look at the movement in the polls. The trend line and size of wave is clear

Even western newspapers are now carrying the stories of the surge.

i'm almost a senior citizen...

There is no stopping this.. By Tuesday we will be the government of Canada

Keep working our butts off..But it is going to happen...

Incorrect

Watching CBC's At Issue panel this evening was interesting. Alan Gregg of Decima Research suggested that an NDP seat projection of one hundred seats or more was possible if recent polls are correct. He did not take the opportunity to discredit or second guess the recent polls that suggest a tectonic shift is underway. I suspect that Decima Research may soon come out with a poll that is in line with what we are witnessing, otherwise he would probably have thrown cold water on the optimistic projections.   

Andrew Coyne sat stone faced during the entire discussion. Boo hoo!

Sean in Ottawa

And they agreed that as Mansbridge said it is historic -- here we are less than a week to go and we don't know who will win the election.

That is clear-- there are only two parties in contention and the big M is admitting the NDP could win.

Life, the unive...

Remember when this election was a forgone conclusion and we already knew the outcome?  Ba ha ha ha.

Every pundit in Canada should tender their resignation.

Stockholm

The NDP is peaking at EXACTLY the right moment. The news about the Quebec surge that hit the front pages last week has just enough time to create national momentum and an "echo effect" in Ontario, but its also happening close enough to e-day that the other parties have no time to stop the orange juggernaut! Discrediting Layton and the NDP would have required an elaborate campaign that would have had to have started weeks ago. Now anything the Liberals and Tories do will smack of desparation and there are only 5 days left in the campaign - with the Royal wedding about to suck all the oxygen out of the room.

ghoris

Paul Wells is grumbling about the AR poll on Twitter, calling the poll "legendary" and saying "I'm beginning to think there was never actually anyone named Angus Reid".  Despite poll after poll after poll showing an NDP surge in Quebec, he insists all the pollsters' Quebec numbers are "wacky". It's like these guys' brains are hard-wired to only accept certain things, and any data that does not fit into the accepted wisdom of a Tory-Grit two-horse race simply does not compute.

I find it funny (but not entirely surprising) that all these pundits, whose hearts used to flutter at every minor twitch in the numbers and who worshipped people like Nik Nanos as gods, are now rushing to crap all over the whole practice of polling, calling it illegitimate and spreading misinformation like "the polls are all over the map". If you look at the trends as opposed to dissecting the specific raw numbers, the answer is no, they're not "all over the map", in fact I'd say they paint a fairly clear picture. It's fair to say that we don't know how these trends are going to shake out on Monday, but to suggest that we simply can't divine *anything* meaningful from the polls is just flat-out wrong.

JeffWells

After tonight I'm daring to believe this is really happening.

Incorrect

It was interesting to hear on The National that the advance poll turnout set a new record, and was 34% higher than in 2008. It looks like all those Liberals who stayed home last time are now showing up...to vote for the NDP!

David Young

I've heard from many political commentators over the years say that a higher advance poll turnout means a higher turnout on election day, and that's never good news for the incumbent party in power.

A lower voter turnout means voter apathy/contentment with the party in power.

Let's all see history being made on May 2nd!

 

Sean in Ottawa

AR Regionals

BC

Con 44

NDP 30

Lib 16

GR 10

 

AB

Con 60

NDP 21

Lib 12

Gr 6

 

MB SK

Con 50

NDP 33

Lib 16

GR 1

 

ON

Con 37

NDP 27

Lib 30

Gr 6

 

QC

Con 14

NDP 38

Lib 16

BQ 29

Gr 2

 

Atl

Con 35

NDP 32

Lib 29

Gr 4

Incorrect

Harper's financial supporters will be looking for somebody to replace him. They will want a friendlier face that can persuade Canadians to vote against their own interestst. The same goes for Ignatieff.

NorthReport

Bingo! Laughing

Life, the universe, everything wrote:

Remember when this election was a forgone conclusion and we already knew the outcome?  Ba ha ha ha.

Every pundit in Canada should tender their resignation.

Sean in Ottawa

So what you are seeing is:

1) the NDP almost equal to Liberals in Ontario only 10% behind the Cons

2) the NDP moving way past Liberals in MB Sask now with 1/3 of the vote

3) the NDP at almost 1/3 in BC

4) The NDP passing the Liberals in Atlantic Canada at about 1/3

The Liberals are 3rd place or worse everywhere across the country except for Ontario where they hold second only by 3%.

 

Doug

Wow. Ontario is picking up! We're late to the party but perhaps not too late.

Krago

Stockholm wrote:

Now anything the Liberals and Tories do will smack of desparation and there are only 5 days left in the campaign - with the Royal wedding about to suck all the oxygen out of the room.

God Save The Queen!

bekayne

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

AR Regionals

BC

Con 44   -2

NDP 30   +2

Lib 16

GR 10     +1

 

AB

Con 60

NDP 21   +1

Lib 12    +1

Gr 6       -2

 

MB SK

Con 50

NDP 33    +6

Lib 16      -3

GR 1        -2

 

ON

Con 37     -1

NDP 27     +3

Lib 30       -1

Gr 6          -1

 

QC

Con 14     -3

NDP 38    +12

Lib 16      -3

BQ 29      -9

Gr 2

 

Atl

Con 35    +13

NDP 32

Lib 29       -9

Gr 4         -3

Centrist

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

AR Regionals

ON

Con 37

NDP 27

Lib 30

Gr 6

Awesome. Just awesome!!!

 

Sean in Ottawa

I think people want to stop the Harper majority and have deicded the NDP is how they will do it.

 

 

Northern-54

An awesome poll from Angus Reid.  I am wondering why Harris-Decima has not published their usual poll on Monday.  Any one have any knowledge of when the Leger poll is coming out.

ghoris

Quote:

ON

Con 37

NDP 27

Lib 30

Gr 6

For my money, this is the most interesting number. Has the NDP ever polled anything close to this number in Ontario (federal or provincial) since 1990? 

NorthReport

So far we know of 3 polls coming out soon

Ipsos tonite?

Nanos - tomorrow

Leger - this week

gyor

Krago wrote:

Stockholm wrote:

Now anything the Liberals and Tories do will smack of desparation and there are only 5 days left in the campaign - with the Royal wedding about to suck all the oxygen out of the room.

God Save The Queen!

After the progueing crap I figure she owes us one hehe. If this helps the NDP it might be enough to make me a monarchist.

bekayne

NorthReport wrote:

So far we know of 3 polls coming out soon

Ipsos tonite?

Nanos - tomorrow

Leger - this week

I think EKOS is a 3 day rolling poll for the rest of the campaign

 

Stockholm

Where did you get those numbers from Sean? I heard Christian Bourque say that Leger was in field and would have a release soon but that they still had the NDP surging in Quebec!

Uncle John

Well I think Beaches East York and Parkdale High Park are done like dinner if the NDP are at 27 in Ontario.

Friends of mine who voted Liberal to stop the Tories in the past are describing themselves as NDP voters.

If the NDP voters actually vote NDP, who knows what could happen!

If the Libs collapse further I can see the 416 splitting between the NDP and the Tories.

Voting NDP can stop a Harper majority, and it may also break the logjam in Canadian politics.

It seems that the NDP surge first eats into Liberal support, then it eats into Tory support.

Fascinating!

simonvallee

I'm anxious for the Léger poll. My motto regarding movements in polls in Québec is "it's not real until Léger says it is".

That being said, let me point out that Ekos and Angus-Reid were the two pollsters that came closest to predicting last election's results, so if both predict the NDP is over the Liberals, I think there is really something there.

What's more is that Harper has started firing with both barrels on the NDP, which is completely different from what he has done thus far, which was ignore the NDP and hope it eats into the Liberals' vote to split the anti-Conservative vote. The parties are always polling internally, much more frequently and precisely (meaning in more details, not necessarily more accurately) than the public polls we have. That means that if Harper is putting his sights on the NDP, then the NDP is really hurting him and his party and he is running scared. That, more than anything, confirms that the NDP surge is true.

Stockholm

Numbers like this might even mean a breach into 905 country. Oshawa is an obvious target, but the NDP has an excellent candidate in Brampton-Gore-Malton as well and Jack had a rally there with 500 mostly Sikh people last week!

Stockholm

Check this out - Nycole Turmel leads by 13 points in Hull-Aylmer!

http://pdf.cyberpresse.ca/ledroit/une.jpg

thorin_bane

wow crapping myself with delite..just have to make sure all these voters make it to the polling station and keep their head about them. I was hoping for 45 seats nationally at the start, now I am hoping for 45 in quebec :)

Centrist
samuelolivier

Stockholm wrote:

Check this out - Nycole Turmel leads by 13 points in Hull-Aylmer!

http://pdf.cyberpresse.ca/ledroit/une.jpg

Wow, that's such a jump! A-MA-ZING! Nycole Turmel resume would be such a strong Quebec MP for the NDP :)  Pontiac next! 

Sean in Ottawa

So between Ekos and AR what are the differences?

BC

AR shows Cons much higher in BC and Liberals much lower

AR would likely see 21 Cons, 1 Liberal, 14 NDP

AB

AR has NDP higher and Liberals lower

AR would likely see 2 NDP seats 26 Cons

SK MB

AR has NDP way up and Liberals way down

AR would like see 2 NDP seats in Sask 1 Liberal 11 Con

AR would see Liberals lose everythign in Man NDP 4 Cons 10

ON

AR has NDP way up and Liberals and Cons down a bit

AR would see 60 Con 19 Liberal 27 NDP

QC

AR has Liberals a little higher Cons a little lower and BQ higher

AR would see 6 Cons 6 Liberals 35 NDP 28 BQ

AT

Liberals lower and NDP higher but those seats already moved

AR would see 8 Con 14 Lib 10 NDP

 

National

Con 142 (higher than Ekos shows)

NDP 95

Liberals 42

BQ 28

IND 1

 

 

samuelolivier
Sean in Ottawa

Sorry Stockholm -- did not provide link but someone else did.

I'm guessing you are a happy person right about now.

Now stay happy you-hear?

Sean in Ottawa

Actually I just noticed something not so good in my last calculation -- NDP plus Liberal now below Cons. I dn't like that but a further increase for the NDP could fix that.

Lens Solution

Democratic Space is projecting a Conservative Majority right now (161 seats):

http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2011/

takeitslowly

alll the strategic voting sites are useless now..

NorthReport

They must have been crying writing this.

 

NDP's Jack Layton standing firm in second place: poll

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/980804--ndp-s-jack-l...

Lens Solution

adma wrote:

Aristotleded24 wrote:
Any comments from The Toronto Star about Fortress Toronto crumbling under the Rob Ford effect?

Well...that *may* be a cloud looming over it all.  With those numbers, the Tories might wind up getting Volpe/Dryden/Oliphant *and* Don Valley East and perhaps even Willowdale, a Scarborough seat or two or three, and a sweep of Etobicoke (yes, including Iggy).  Note: Tories.  *Not* NDP.

This is why a rise in NDP support in Ontario is not necessarily a good thing - it helps the Conservatives to win lots of seats that only they can win.

Pages

Topic locked