Election Polling April 26

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Lord Palmerston

Time for a new thread!

Lens Solution

Ken Burch wrote:

The seat projections are still wonky in that link.  They're projecting the Bloc to still get 36 seats in Quebec and the NDP to get NONE in Sask.

Both those outcomes are still possible.  We won't know until Monday night.

Sean in Ottawa

Lens actually some of those that moved to the Con column were in BC and Atlantic Canada as well

NorthReport

Gotta keep it going though - we need an NDP majority

 

 

NDP favoured by 30 per cent of Canadians: poll

 

http://www.canada.com/news/decision-canada/favoured+cent+Canadians+poll/...

BertramPotts BertramPotts's picture

According to the EKOS and AR numbers the NDP is now the #1 choice of Canadian women.

BertramPotts BertramPotts's picture

According to the EKOS and AR numbers the NDP is now the #1 choice of Canadian women.

Anonymouse

I think it's totally realistic that the NDP could win 3 seats in Edmonton the way things are going.

If this poll is to be believed (awaiting confirmation by other polls), the surge has hit Ontario! Also, the Turmel numbers are fantastic! Her seat was one the Liberals would have held on to if their vote held up. This poll suggests their support really has collapsed! The whole West Island is at risk for them.

scott scott's picture

NorthReport wrote:
With the NDP tsunami maybe the NDP will win Saanich Gulf Islands. If Harper is as bad as many people including May make him out to be, everyone should be jumping on the NDP bandwagon now including May.

Everyone in SGI should be voting for the candidate most likely to defeat Lunn, which is Elizabeth May.

__________________________________

One struggle, many fronts.

Anonymouse

The NDP has got a MASSIVE lead on health care cred over the other parties. Time to remind voters of the negotiations on the new health accord with the provinces again, and how the NDP was the (first) party that brought it up in the campaign.

Anonymouse

Jack has got some work to do on the "best prime minister" numbers. Harper still maintains a sizable lead there, but Layton is leagues ahead of Ignatieff.

NorthReport

I disagree.

Vote for the party that comes closest to what you believe in, and never mind all that silly strategic voting stuff which no one knows for sure who is in what place.

For all I know May could end up in last place.

 

scott wrote:

NorthReport wrote:
With the NDP tsunami maybe the NDP will win Saanich Gulf Islands. If Harper is as bad as many people including May make him out to be, everyone should be jumping on the NDP bandwagon now including May.

Everyone in SGI should be voting for the candidate most likely to defeat Lunn, which is Elizabeth May.

__________________________________

One struggle, many fronts.

Stockholm

scott wrote:

Everyone in SGI should be voting for the candidate most likely to defeat Lunn, which is Elizabeth May.

I'd rather have red hot nails inserted into my eyeballs than vote for that revolting individual.

Anonymouse

The ARS polls suggests lots of Liberal voters are/were still willing to vote "strategically." I wonder if that has/will bear fruit for the NDP.

Uncle John

This is looking more and more like a Kim Campbell moment for the Liberal Party. 22% is starting to get to be a mile wide and an inch thick. If it gets down to 18% no seat will be safe for them. As we saw in 1993, people like to kick a political party when it is down.

Then there is the effect of people looking at these polls tomorrow.

NorthReport

Don't worry by tomorrow the Canadian power brokers and elites will have some other polls out to confuse things. I'm surprised they are not out already. Laughing

Northern-54

You are so right!  I expect Ipsos will be out with a poll tomorrow indicating that a Conservative majority is at hand.  I had actually expected Harris-Decima to have a conflicting poll out today (or yesterday).  They will want to make it look like the Conservatives have the momentum going into the final weekend.

I wonder why Leger is waiting.  I'm wondering if it is that they want a poll from a relatively unaligned pollster to be last.

janfromthebruce

Kiss

 

BertramPotts wrote:

According to the EKOS and AR numbers the NDP is now the #1 choice of Canadian women.

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

Anonymouse

Leger is still in the field. Christian Bourque was just talking about the "overnight" numbers.

Sean in Ottawa
ghoris

Uncle John wrote:

This is looking more and more like a Kim Campbell moment for the Liberal Party. 22% is starting to get to be a mile wide and an inch thick. If it gets down to 18% no seat will be safe for them. As we saw in 1993, people like to kick a political party when it is down.

Then there is the effect of people looking at these polls tomorrow.

Possible, certainly, but I still expect the Liberals to largely hold onto Fortress GTA, even if other bastions like the West Island of Montreal start to slip away. That's good for 25 seats at least.

bekayne

Uncle John wrote:

This is looking more and more like a Kim Campbell moment for the Liberal Party. 22% is starting to get to be a mile wide and an inch thick. If it gets down to 18% no seat will be safe for them. As we saw in 1993, people like to kick a political party when it is down.

Then there is the effect of people looking at these polls tomorrow.

The thing is, those seats just don't vanish. Another party wins them. Where do you think they'd go?

Krago

Nanos Tracking Poll (April 23-26)

Canada: Conservative - 37.8%, NDP - 27.8%, Liberal - 22.9%, BQ - 5.8%, Green - 4.7%

Atlantic: Conservative - 37.8%, Liberal - 29.0%, NDP - 26.5%, Green - 6.7%

Quebec: NDP - 36.5%, BQ - 24.2%, Liberal - 20.3%, Conservative - 13.6%, Green - 2.0%

Ontario: Conservative - 46.9%, Liberal - 25.7%, NDP - 21.0%, Green - 6.0%

Prairies: Conservative - 49.6%, NDP - 28.2%, Liberal - 17.7%, Green - 3.8%

BC: Conservative - 40.9%, NDP - 27.7%, Liberal - 24.8%, Green - 6.1%

edmundoconnor

Uncle John wrote:

Well I think Beaches East York and Parkdale High Park are done like dinner if the NDP are at 27 in Ontario.

Davenport has now come very definitely into play, which is great news for Andrew Cash.

York South--Weston is also beginning to look very, very dodgy for the Liberals right now.

josh

Krago wrote:

Nanos Tracking Poll (April 23-26)

Canada: Conservative - 37.8%, NDP - 27.8%, Liberal - 22.9%, BQ - 5.8%, Green - 4.7%

Atlantic: Conservative - 37.8%, Liberal - 29.0%, NDP - 26.5%, Green - 6.7%

Quebec: NDP - 36.5%, BQ - 24.2%, Liberal - 20.3%, Conservative - 13.6%, Green - 2.0%

Ontario: Conservative - 46.9%, Liberal - 25.7%, NDP - 21.0%, Green - 6.0%

Prairies: Conservative - 49.6%, NDP - 28.2%, Liberal - 17.7%, Green - 3.8%

BC: Conservative - 40.9%, NDP - 27.7%, Liberal - 24.8%, Green - 6.1%

Those Ontario numbers are still ugly.  Nanos has the Cons 10 points higher there than A/R does.  Other than that, a very positive poll.

 

Sean in Ottawa

Now the right wing media may turn to help the Liberals becuase back-tracking on the NDP surge more likely to create majority for Cons than allowing it to continue.

janfromthebruce

So did this mother!

 

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kTDvCLAT8hg

My mother loved this

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

Sean in Ottawa

And that could explain SUN media's reversal on the Iggy Iraq story. Don't be thinking it was journalistic integrity.

Northern-54

I agree, Sean.  We can expect "Red Scare" activity.  The only thing that will help against the media is all those negative Liberal ads.  They are so bad.  They are bound to send disgruntled Liberals our way.  After months of having their leader demonized by Conservative pre-election ads, they aren't going to turn to Harper.

thorin_bane

Those are good numbers for nanos. That is a BIG jump in just 3 days.

MegB

Closed for length.

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