Election Talk (14)

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Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Does anyone know what the politics of Chris Adams of Probe Reserach in Winnipeg is? He says that the NDP vote is going to come up and give the Tories Anita Neville's seat, but that the Orange Wave isn't vaugely have any effet on Kevin Lamoureux. I don't know what other people are having the same kind of experience as we are in Winnipeg, but I tell you, I am getting sick and tired of all the garbage. What a hatchett job on CTV tonight. They can go to hell!

Basement Dweller

On the CTV all news channel, the voice-over for a news story said "the socialist NDP".

Ken Burch

ghoris wrote:

Further evidence the Cons are getting very worried - the Con war room just released a lengthy "Reality Check" news release titled "What does a vote for Jack Layton's NDP really mean?" 

From the release - a vote for Jack Layton's NDP means:

- A Vote for a Coalition with the Ignatieff Liberals and the Bloc Quebecois

- A Vote for Higher Taxes

- A Vote for Job-Killing Policies

- A Vote for Reckless and Unaffordable Permanent Spending

- A Vote for More Constitutional Battles

- A Vote for Higher Gas Prices

- A Vote for a Soft-on-Crime Agenda

- A Vote for a Candidate who advocates Quebec Sovereignty

- A Vote for Conspiracy Theorists

- A Vote for Canadians who Take Vacations over Working for You

Man, they've thrown in everything but the kitchen sink there. Some of the wording is so over the top it's almost comical. They may as well have thrown in:

- A Vote for More American Teams in the NHL

- A Vote for a 50% Increase in the Price of Beer

- A Vote for Longer Winters, More Mosquitos in Summer

- A Vote for the End of Civilization as We Know It

Anything I might have missed?

A vote for people who hate cute little puppy dogs?

KenS

Mike N wrote:

What would happen if the NDP and Conservatives have the exact same number of seats on May 3rd?

\

Does not matter who has more seats.

The government is the government until they either resign or are voted out on a confidence matter- the immediate matter being the Throne Speech.

Practically speaking, who has more seats matters, but it is not determining in itself.

An extreme example of what is technically possible is illustrative, even if it would never happen: if the Conservatives have 25 seats and want to present a Throne Speech, they are the government and they can.

It is NOT the party with most seats. It is strictly a balance of power thing. TRADITIONALLY, who has the most seats is a very compelling aspect in that balance of power. But it was never determining by itself, and has become less so now. If the NDP can corral the Liberals into some kind of governing agreement, the Conservatives having the most seats is going to be pretty much irrelevant. Mind you, that "if" is a really big one- even if who has the most seats does not matter.

KenS

On the subject of the Conservatives campaign not responding very well...

It isnt lack of budget room or nimbleness. Until you see it up close, it is surprising how many elements there are to a campaign, and how dependent they are. If you want to change direction in a major way, you pretty much have to do what the Bloc does: the old campaign plan gets completely torched. Practically speaking, the half way measures just dont work.

And you have to be as desperate as the bloc to outright jettison the campaign plan. So the Conservatives are making do with what they can throw in their quick. Not working is what you expect from doing that. It is radical enough that to do these ineffective ads they are giving up on ones focused on the Liberals, and that were presumably effective because of the lonng development train that went into them.

This happened to the NS NDP in 1999. The PCs were a distant third party and seemed destined to reside there. The NDP campaign was built entirely around the still governing Liberals [reduced to a minority government]. By the time the PC surge was visible- just about the same point in the campaign- it was too late to do anything about it.

Going out there and saying "you know that PC/NDP platform is not what you think it is.... and here are the reasons...."

... that just does not cut it. And that is what Team Harper is doing about the NDP surge. But its all they can do.

bagkitty bagkitty's picture

Ken Burch wrote:

A vote for people who hate cute little puppy dogs?

I'd vote for people who hate cute little puppy dogs (and not just because of my handle... I have little bits of scar tissue to underscore my anti-canine vote). But if you if you want to lock up my vote, you have to promise eradicate the introduced Eastern Grey Squirrel from Alberta.

Farmpunk

And I thought there were no rats in Alberta.

NorthReport

Even if Layton gets a majority government his hands will be tied to a certain extent by the now CPC controlled Senate, so regardless of any outcome, there is going to have to be negotations.

Jack is really unloading both barrels on Harper and the Cons in Edmonton tonite. Layton's on fire!

KenS

A squirrel is a rat with PR.

gyor

This a double whammy for the liberals, not will they lose both OP status, Government and seats, but the lost votes will cost them a bundle of money. And fundraising for the party will be brutal without the wiff of party not to mention the draw on resources of a leadership campaign. The Liberals don't have the NDP grassroots fundraising experience. It is ironic that they call upon former PM Jean to save them because his changes to the funding rules will backrupt the party.

Pogo Pogo's picture

KenS, do you know how in debt the Liberals are?  How easy is it to guess at their revenue prospects with a 25% 50-60 seat election?

Pogo Pogo's picture

KenS, do you know how in debt the Liberals are?  How easy is it to guess at their revenue prospects with a 25% 50-60 seat election?

NorthReport

 

Conservative operative's dismissal raises ire within party ranks

 

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/981291--conservative...

thorin_bane

I would say that would be a major blow. The libs are barley keeping pace with the NDP for fundraising. SO for them to lose the 2 buck on a further 21% reduction(6% lower than 28ish) would be huge, and as pointed out. Hard to fund rasie for what looks to be a rump party when you don't have any core values to get behind. Unlike cons and NDP and even greens. What does the libs stand for? Really? No Really?

This may bankrupt the liberal party of canada. While I cheer it is important that the NDP bring in PR ASAP. No legislation will be more important in the longterm health of the nations democracy than that.

JeffWells

Nicely done unofficial GOTV anthem for the NDP:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3l6aY7XEL_w

 

Boom Boom Boom Boom's picture

This is all over social media this week:

 

Anonymouse

You guys give the Liberals way too little credit. Their supporters have deep pockets and they have an ideology that differentiates themselves from the NDP. Their voters are more likely to vote than the NDP's traditional support. They have no trouble getting 1000+ people to a rally in Montréal even when they are weak. They need to find themselves (ideologically) again and then they will be back. Right now, though, the Liberals are pretty close to the "throwing up their hands" point. They are running out of time to go after Layton. 

Will tomorrow be the last day of newspaper polls until Sunday?

flight from kamakura

being active here in quebec (and i'd say in the 99th percentile of people thinking about this stuff here), this is probably the most informative thing i've read on the ndp strategy here in quebec at this point:

http://www.ledevoir.com/politique/elections-2011/322006/la-realite-du-te...

essentially, devote serious resources to the 6-8 ridings that seems winnable (which are heavily francophone, and don't include westmount, ndg, mount royal, lasalle emard, etc) and then just let the wave do whatever it'll do. only realistic approach, but one that makes bloc clawbacks on pulling really more a question of extent.

remind remind's picture

Boom Boom wrote:
This is all over social media this week:

 

It's a bit small, what does the caption say?

thorin_bane

Anonymouse wrote:

You guys give the Liberals way too little credit. Their supporters have deep pockets and they have an ideology that differentiates themselves from the NDP. Their voters are more likely to vote than the NDP's traditional support. They have no trouble getting 1000+ people to a rally in Montréal even when they are weak. They need to find themselves (ideologically) again and then they will be back. Right now, though, the Liberals are pretty close to the "throwing up their hands" point. They are running out of time to go after Layton. 

Will tomorrow be the last day of newspaper polls until Sunday?

Actually now we wdon't. Iggy was put into the leader position because they couldn't afford another convention. They have lots of support from the mushy middle. You know people who are happy with the status quo but not likely to put money towards ummmm change. Why donate to something that stand still its not like you are trying to accoplish anything. The people on the other ends of teh spectrum are motivated to have their voice heard so they donate to their party. Some do it for the LGR like the cons, some do it for healthcare(ndp)...but the libs stand for what exactly? I mean that you can identify that they don't change after an election? You see just because the NDP only has a rock base of 8% maybe now around 14-18(pre elction numbers) they are MORE MOTIVATED. Same reason why greens will take a poll. They want their voices heard. Mushy middle doesn't care, just leave them alone and don't ask anything in return.

SRB

remind wrote:

Boom Boom wrote:
This is all over social media this week:

 

It's a bit small, what does the caption say?

 

It's a cartoon from the Toronto Star.  It has Harper saying "The election is unnecessary.  Nobody wants this elec-" 

Here is the URL: http://tinyurl.com/33ffrpu

Ken Burch

Anonymouse wrote:

You guys give the Liberals way too little credit. Their supporters have deep pockets and they have an ideology that differentiates themselves from the NDP.

 

The Liberals have an ideology?

mike_braincloud

flight from kamakura wrote:
haven't posted in a while, but this ndp "imagine" ad is worth taking the time. so yeah, a few things: 1) in terms of strategy, this is obviously the most frontally left ad the ndp has ever run, at least under layton. the substance basically amounts to this: "you know, they're correct when they say i'm a leftist and you know where we stand, and where we've always stood on these issues. and if you just think about it, don't you stand with us?" the messaging goes to the basic appeal to close out this campaign with a direct affective contrast with the count and harper. 2) specific to the delivery, well, i can't really envision a more perfectly modulated delivery. there's this call and response effect where, the question is phrased with conviction and the answer is delivered (by someone else) with this quiet but equally effective corollary conviction. indeed, it would seem radical if it were any less effective - the people, the tone, this amazing setting and staging, it's the sort of spot that the other parties would laugh at but also dread because of how hugely effective it could be. 3) in terms of campaign more globally, i think this one tells us two very interesting things about the difference between the dipper rise in roc/anglo quebec and quebec proper. the dipper campaign is very effectively caroming the insane rise in quebec into very frequent roc media mention, and then re-asking a basic question during the second-look that the quebec-resulting media attention is bringing to the campaign. effectively, by going affective to close out the campaign, the ndp is suggesting that the rise in the polls that everyone is talking about is occurring because lots of people, all at once, are buying into this message. 4) so effectively, this "imagine" spot is telling these second lookers: "listen, i know it's not working for you like it should (ie. you don't like harper, and you're unclear on the russian count dude, that is, i know that these are not the leaders that you want). and you know that i'm a man of principle, and that this principle is not only based solely on my own deep personal integrity, but also on the ideological integrity of a party that has always been for the people. because of these, you know that you can trust me to pursue my platform to the end (at least concerning those issues where we hold the most public trust), and don't you want that? join all these people that you've been hearing about, join this movement, for this sort of government." the way that the woman sort of pauses and arches her eyebrows and says "cares", like i could see people spontaneously bursting into tears at that point, so compelling (and unfamiliar to some) is the notion and the hope that it really could be true. as for the questions above on the specific characters in the story, i think it's clear who ndp thinks will listen to this: young professionals, city dwellers (i bet this whole thing was shot in the annex) and women (especially mothers of younger children). the spot definitely tells us that ndp knows (or at least thought when they made it) that they can't massively break through and form government outright - you don't shoot for these demos when that's your strategy. it's definitely about killing off the lpc. final notes and qualifications: this was delayed to continue running the much stranger (at least for canada and ndp) movement spot, which i saw twice on cbc during la game last night. that suggests that they want to keep on with that movement-oriented second-look demo appeal, and delay or run this on other channels, as an attempt to broad-cast their appeal. narrow-casting along this line will be most effective targeted to the above groups and least effective with older and less educated people, especially men and those in rural areas. in terms of contrast, think about this ad against the harper "great canada" ad and iggy "great nation" spots: three very notional understandings of what makes for a great canadian leader. if harper is about strong economy and bedrock values as basic voting issues, and the count is about some broader canadian civic national idea, jack is narrowing his appeal to simple questions of empathy and solidarity. so that the affective appeal reduces to something like: who do you really trust to take care you when you really need someone to be there? just think about that one and the conviction in her face and voice when she says that "cares". it's incredible as contrasts go, and the audacity itself almost makes it believable. people literally, and maybe without it even registering consciously, will ask themselves the question this ad wants them to. i've seen an ndp campaign so elegantly telegraph their core appeal, really amazing, this, and if this penetrates at all, ndp should be able to consolidate a reasonably good share of these gains. wow, long post.

 

Flight From Kamakura,

I took a quick look on the web to see what people were saying about "Imagine".

Came across your posting and analysis.

 

I just wanted to pass on to you that I greatly appreciate you taking the time to share and express your thoughts on "Imagine".

I intend nothing other than to say it has been quite rewarding to read that people such as yourself 'get' the spot.

 

And also great to see 80% of Canadians are responding to its intended sincerity.

You were so bang on with all your points, that I couldn't resist posting that I enjoyed reading your take.

The insight and thought put into your message are in turn inspiring

 

 

An insignificant side comment to your post, is that Imagine was actually shot in Parkdale. Shot there with intent and conscious rationale.

But no one would be able to guess that since our focus was intended to be more on the people delivering the message.

They were just meant to be Canadians "at home" or "on the street" or "at work".


So I've joined rabble.ca and really look forward to reading more insights from everyone here.

 

Cheers,

-MC

 

Pogo Pogo's picture

Welcome to babble Mike.

mike_braincloud

thanks.  looking forward to it...

NorthReport

What's his problem - trying to please his corporate masters I suppose.

 

http://www.thestar.com/article/981466--walkom-layton-s-surge-and-eerie-e...

Wilf Day

Mike N wrote:

What would happen if the NDP and Conservatives have the exact same number of seats on May 3rd?

The same thing that will happen in any hung parliament: the incumbent Prime Minister will either choose to meet the House and dare them to vote him out (as Frank Miller did, even after the Liberal/NDP Accord was signed) or will resign if he thinks this would be a waste of time.

janfromthebruce

Sweet - you know I've always really liked how the "the NDP Campaigne team" sticks their nose in here, on and off, and let's us know that they are listening to us babble and also that maybe some of our thoughts & suggestions get taken up. It is what I like best about "Team Layton" - thanks a bunch & welcome babble Mike!

 

we're moving beyond the same old, same old! Kiss

howeird beale

So, umm, kind of amazed no one called bullshit on the obvious troll. Nice comment dolt: "Gee, the NDP had someone with breasts in their ad."

So, uhhh, she should have been in a burqa?

Or should she just not be allowed to vote?

howeird beale

And I'd like to say I find that ad mindblowingly well done. I'm hoping they're going to play the shit out of it right before the vote

edmundoconnor

NorthReport wrote:

What's his problem - trying to please his corporate masters I suppose.

 

http://www.thestar.com/article/981466--walkom-layton-s-surge-and-eerie-e...

But surges have a life of their own. Once begun, they are hard to stop. People just get a notion in their heads.

Prime Minister Jack Layton? As Ontario found in 1990, nothing is impossible.

For Walkom to write this, means something incredible is going on.

 

gyor

howeird beale wrote:

So, umm, kind of amazed no one called bullshit on the obvious troll. Nice comment dolt: "Gee, the NDP had someone with breasts in their ad."

So, uhhh, she should have been in a burqa?

Or should she just not be allowed to vote?

I was expecting something like a beer commerial. This new democrats for you!

He made it seem like the camera would zoom in on her breasts.

Bit of a let down after the hype.

Anonymouse
NorthReport

The Liberals will not get 50 seats in the election
I actually felt a little sorry for Chretien last nite being dragged into that shit of a campaign
Hébert: A Liberal campaign of self-destruction

 

As dangerous as the past month has turned out to be, the next few days could be more perilous. For the Liberals, things could still get worse.

The so-called orange wave of the NDP could turn into a tsunami and sweep into Ontario. Or the sight of the NDP in the official opposition window with attending speculation that Monday's vote could put Layton within reach of the Prime Minister's Office could see the right flank of the Liberals collapse to the Conservatives.

On the highway to Montreal's Trudeau airport - one of the rare landmarks of the past Liberal glory in Quebec - there is a big Ignatieff billboard. "Quebecers have the power to change things," it proclaims.

That part of the Liberal message has obviously resonated.

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/981471--hebert-a-lib...

NorthReport

This is important message that NDPers need to pay close attention to.

 

Don't believe the polling hype, Harper's campaign chief tells her troops

 

 

Stephen Harper's campaign manager is warning Tory troops not to believe the polls or what they read in the media since the election is far from over.

"Make no mistake - nothing is decided yet," Jenni Byrne writes in the statement dated Wednesday. "There are many close races where even a handful of votes will make the difference."

 

She notes, too, that Canada's "future is at stake in this election."

Or is it the Conservative Party's future that's at stake in this election? Is Ms. Byrne channeling Tory nervousness about the way in which this campaign is unfolding? Or is she merely trying to motivate campaign workers to get out the vote on May 2?

The latest polling numbers show the possibility of a Tory majority government slipping away. Not surprising then, her warning about reading too much into the media polls.

"We are concerned that due to media coverage or 'so-called polls,' some might feel that the election is already over. That is not the case," she writes.

Thursday's Nanos Research poll has Jack Layton firmly in second place and beginning to close the gap on Mr. Harper. The NDP is now only six points behind the Tories, though Michael Ignatieff's Liberals are almost 15 points behind the front-running Conservatives.

She asks her supporters to "spread the message" about a coalition government and to take family members or friends to the polls. She notes the record turnout at the advance polls over the Easter weekend and attributes it to her opponents working hard to get out their vote.

"Now is not the time to rest," she asserts. "As Conservatives we must buckle down and take this threat from our opponents seriously."

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ottawa-notebook/dont-believ...

JeffWells

Small thing, maybe, but telling: anyone else feeling entirely different about orange? Until quite recently, the party's colour seemed to me stale and shopworn; a Seventies shag carpet. Now: vibrant, fresh, warm, novel.

NorthReport

CTV's Craig Oliver traveling with Harper -  feedback

Harper has given up on a majority

Cons are in full-blwn panic about NDP strength in BC. With the  collapse of the Liberal vote the Cons feel many of their seats are in jeopardy in BC.

Uncle John

I think the Tories are in trouble in Saskatchewan and Manitoba and Quebec, let alone BC...

Basement Dweller

NorthReport wrote:

CTV's Craig Oliver traveling with Harper -  feedback

Harper has given up on a majority

Cons are in full-blwn panic about NDP strength in BC. With the  collapse of the Liberal vote the Cons feel many of their seats are in jeopardy in BC.

Oh good, maybe the Nanos poll is missing something in its BC trends. They seem to show flat NDP support and Conservatives gaining Liberal votes. But I think the Nanos poll is missing how badly the Liberals are collapsing in BC.

NorthReport

The cracks are continuing to show in the Cons solidarity. Believe me if I was that campaign manager I would tell Harper to keep away - mean, angry Harper is the kiss of death now.

 

Want to welcome Harper?
'Let me think about it,' Tory official says

 

http://thechronicleherald.ca/Vote2011/1240558.html

 

 

HornAfrique

NorthReport, can I get a link to that Craig Oliver comment? Or are you just paraphrasing what he said on TV?

Anyone notice how the long held pretenses of strategic voting have almost completley disappeared with these latest results? Hard to believe how fast things have changed. Just weeks ago strategic voting was a major election topic and now its not even being considered.

 

I'm listening to newstalk radio here in Ottawa with glee. Far right here sounds almost apocalyptic. Ironically just this past week, they were arguing the EKOS polls were false and misleading. Now they've turned towards patronizing the Canadian electorate seeing the results are no longer in their favour. Its clear the campaign has turned from securing a majority, towards simply salvaging their existing lead in seats.

Steve_Shutt Steve_Shutt's picture

NorthReport,

No surprise that we are facing the Tories pulling out all the stops here to blunt the orange crush. 

We have a lot of advantages in these final days in that the Tory mud-slingshot has not spent months, years, vilifying us rather have simply ignored and attempted to marginalize us.  It makes it very difficult to pivot now and create a new "Iggy" to beat up.  Note that Harper rarely refers to Jack by name.  There are far fewer "Layton" references than there were to the count because his likeables are so high.

The challenge for the Tories is to attack Jack in a credible fashion that will resonate with those who may still have doubts.  The Bob Rae example is a good tact for them to take.  It is shorthand, so it doesn't have to be explained to people.  It is an example most familiar to those in vote rich Ontario, which helps, but the people they need to get are either Liberal supporters who, because they have Rae running for them, can't really join in the pile on to make the attack more credible.  By contrast when the NDP and Liberals attack Harper for being a big meanie, it gains some traction because it isn't just one party repeating the message.

 

Sean in Ottawa

This is still unclear-- the election Monday can still deliver anything from a Layton Minority to a Conservative majority.

The vte splits remain too difficult to see-- is the Liberal voted retreated into salvageable seats or are the Cons going to get a majority with barely a third of the vote?

The way the vote is spread we could see the most disproportionate lopsided result through FPTP or we could see soemthign more closely reflecting how people voted. It is a crap shoot.

Let me predict that it will be late Monday before many seats are decided and we may have a record of recounts.

There should be hope and no celebration now just hope and work for those who might yet make a difference.

 

I have never seen so many NDP signs in Ottawa Vanier though...

Steve_Shutt Steve_Shutt's picture

Northreport

Couldn't agree more.  Angry Harper = Tory Meltdown.

The problem for their image makers is that the Tory campaign has been so tight, so scripted, so bland that any change at this point underlines the panic.  They, like Iggy, have painted themselves into a box.

The issue is can they capitalize on an NDP mistake because we are the story, we are the narative. we are writing the script (very nice twitch on the attack ad theme in Jack's stump speech, BTW).  This is why everything is being thrown against the wall to see if anything sticks: vacationing name-on-ballot candidates, past Rae experience, constitution, financial concerns, whatever.

We CAN NOT take the bait.  No gloating, no bragging, no arrogance (one thing we do not want to take from the Liberals as we take their vote).  Jack's appeal is that he is humble, optimistic and willing to work with all parties to get things done.  Serious with out preachy.  5 more days people.

flight from kamakura

^ here in montreal, ndp signage is almost unbelievable. it's running out of outremont into papineau, into rosemont, into laurier, jeanne-le ber, it's omnipresent. i'm talking tens or dozens of huge professional billboards, bus stop boards, hundreds (thousands?) of campaign signs; by far the most of every party. probably indicates support far less than it does a massive, all out spending spree to bring home the vote here in la ville aux mille clochers. really too bad the habs were knocked out last night, aside from the sting of the loss and the general gloom that's set over the city, it would have been nice to have kept the momentum of city-wide joy going leading up to the election.

JeffWells

Craig Oliver muses aloud about an NDP majority:

http://electionblog.ctv.ca/post/2011/04/28/Tories-can-no-longer-be-in-de...

 

Doug

Steve_Shutt wrote:

NorthReport,

No surprise that we are facing the Tories pulling out all the stops here to blunt the orange crush. 

We have a lot of advantages in these final days in that the Tory mud-slingshot has not spent months, years, vilifying us rather have simply ignored and attempted to marginalize us.  It makes it very difficult to pivot now and create a new "Iggy" to beat up.  

 

Also, thank goodness for William and Kate! The more time on TV spent talking about her dress, the less time there will be for anyone to talk about how an NDP government will cause tha apocalypse.

JeffWells

Video report here of Oliver reporting from the Harper campaign on the "NDP threat":

http://watch.ctv.ca/news/election-2011/ndp-threat/#clip457754

Searosia

Ugh...attempted the sidewalk chalk idea to spread around the 'May 2nd get out and vote!' message....and today we're in near white-out conditions.  stupid snow, wtf is going on?  ;)   Never had to check weather reports ahead of elections before

Northern Shoveler Northern Shoveler's picture

Sean in Ottawa wrote:

This is still unclear-- the election Monday can still deliver anything from a Layton Minority to a Conservative majority.

I couldn't agree more.  As a political junkie what really fascinates me is the wave.  I know campaigns well enough to know that few have the capacity to really get solid numbers that are attached to voters names.  Especially this close to E-Day.  In the close NDP ridings from last election where the party has been working hard they will likely be able to have a voter specific GOTV.  In all the other campaigns the NDP has to just try to boast the numbers of people voting and believe in the wave.  

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