Election talk (15)

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janfromthebruce

 

 

Northreport - do you speak in tongues too? Tongue out

 

NorthReport wrote:

Damn it Catchfire, what I meant to say was the NDP was going to win the most number of seats in this election, and it would be Prime-Minister elect Jack Layton late on Monday nite.  Wink

 

PS That is assuming Harper was not lying again when he said that the party which wins the most number of seats gets to govern.

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

takeitslowly

will giving tax cuts to small business really create jobs? does anyone know?

NorthReport

Yes, otherwise why do you think the NDP is proposing it?

takeitslowly

who knows? i am not a party strategist. Theres the idea that supporting small business is more "morally correct" than supporting big corporations.. i just want to know that there will be jobs at the end of the day.

 

I talked to some people and many people do not see any differences between the parties, esp young people..it gets me kind of upset. I just feel like I've been burned too many times, my youthful idealism is gone, i just want to be able to have a chance in life, like finding a full time job, and i hope whichever party that replaces Harper, will be able to provide more opportunties for everyone..otherwise, its just all a political game..

 

i wish there is just one level of government, there are too many excuses and reasons for politicans to say its not their fault, its the other level of government that is hurting you..i hate it. Ontario will have another election soon this year..*sigh* I hate Toronto, Ontario. Its such a miserable city with no jobs, imo.

 

anyways my rambling of the day..i did talk to several people, gave a conservative person some toronto star articles about harper, maybe they will read it and change their vote..whatever.

remind remind's picture

takeitslowly wrote:
will giving tax cuts to small business really create jobs? does anyone know?

Contrary to what corporations would have Canadians think, it is actually small to medium businesses that are job creators and have the largest segment of employees.

Corporations are actually a minus job producer and a drag on communities. yet they get the most tax breaks and subsidies.

NorthReport

Well how many parties have as a priority eliminating poverty and creating decent training and jobs?

-----------------------------------------------------

 

It is a lot worse for the Liberals than most people realize. What are they looking at now 35-40 seats max? What happened to Michael Byers - why didn't he run again in V-Centre?

 

Liberals scramble to save own seats in election's dying days

 

Michael Ignatieff and his Liberals are spending the final three days of their campaign entrenched in Ontario, mostly in and around the GTA, trying to salvage the seats they already hold and trying to win back ridings they lost in close races in 2008.

The story is similar in other regions. In Atlantic Canada, some Liberal volunteers are abandoning attempts to make inroads into ridings held by NDP incumbents and are trying to rescue their own, for example, Mike Savage in Dartmouth, who is running against a tough NDP opponent, and Brian Murphy in Moncton, who is facing a challenge from the Conservatives.

On the West Coast, some grassroots Liberals in Richmond say they are giving up on trying to unseat Conservative Alice Wong and are going to downtown Vancouver to help Liberal incumbent Hedy Fry.

"In a way, it's a crapshoot that is unprecedented in modern times," said Liberal Senator David Smith, a national co-chair of the campaign. "This thing is going to be fought on a riding-by-riding level ... because at this stage it's riding by riding."

Polling is showing a new low for Liberals: finishing third, behind the NDP, for the first time in the party's history

While Conservative Leader Stephen Harper and NDP Leader Jack Layton will travel to British Columbia, Mr. Ignatieff's team has deemed going out to that coast too far. It's more important for the leader to be in Ontario, where he will continue to focus mostly on Conservative ridings that his team considers vulnerable.

 

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/liberals-scramble-to-save-o...

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

@takeitslowly:

The key part of the proposal is the condition it create jobs in Canada that stay here. I have read many such proposals from people like Jim Stafford, and Armin Yalnizyan of the Canadian Center for Policy Alternatives, among others, have advanced these ideas in various similar formats. While it isn't a solution on its own, it should target money towards the kind of real small business companies that create and then offer meaningful employment.

I am not an economist, but have read a great deal on this. This is a good proposal, as it doesn't throw money towards large corporations who generally keep this money to pad profits, and pay out higher amounts of employee compensation, and larger dividends to stock holders.

If there are any professional economists or economics professors lurking around here, now would be a great time to give us some more insight into this.

takeitslowly

I am just whining, anything other than giving corporate tax cuts would be better for ordinary people. I want more jobs created from private sectors, because god knows its hard to get a government job without connections. (or any job, thats the thing that piss me off the most - the job hiring process in Canada)

sometimes i think small business dont really exist in suburban/urban area, i live right beside a freaking shopping mall and its a bunch of big name corproations...hardly any small business or store..but anything is an improvement than just giving money to the CEO guys eh

Anonymouse

I'll add another dark horse to the mix: Bramalea-Gore-Malton

flight from kamakura

incisive analysis in quebec; a sort of anatomy of an ndp surge
http://www.thestar.com/opinion/editorialopinion/article/982345--bloc-s-s...

Randomics

In a brief CP piece on the G&M site, Alan Gregg discusses the NDP surge in quite dramatic terms, the unprecedented engagement of the electorate and the desperate LPC & CPC response to it. Among other things he makes the critical point that the tried and true strategy of demonizing the NDP no longer works because "the NDP isn't scary anymore". He characterizes a NDP official opposition of over 100 seat as quite conceivable. This is a conservative pollster talking...

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/video/video-polls-show-ndp-gaining-o...

takeitslowly

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HYh_QssNYTc&feature=player_embedded

 

the best youtube video i've seen

 

spread it far and wide

 

 

rockin it!

Sean in Ottawa

North Report I thought we agreed that there will be the highest number of close races. It is too early to say Liberals will have 35-40 seats max. They are polling between 21-23 now and could in fact increase slightly. They also have advantages of a large number of incumbents. If the NDP polled 21-23 we would expect about 50 seats. I can see the Liberals get anywhere between 25 and 70 seats. I can't see how you can say their upper limit is 40.

Let's do the math on the Liberals chances:

West 2-10 There are currently several seats that were 2-way races between the Cons and Liberals-- with them now 3-way races the Liberals might squeak through in some cases. They also have chances in Manitoba of saving a couple seats and Wascana.

Ontario 15-40 There are a pile of ridings where the NDP was almost in the single digits. Even if the NDP makes those 3-way races -- the Liberals are going to win some. The Cons are not that strong. If they go down to 15-- we are looking at a massive Con Majority.

Quebec 1-5 With the BQ this week and the real chance of 4-way races in Quebec you have to assume the Liberals or any of the 4 parties could win in some places.

Atlantic Canada 7-15 The Liberals depending on the splits could get as many as 15 including possible sweeping the 4 PEI seats.

That is a range of 25-70 and they could still keep Yukon.

The NDP's range is just as great probably between 50 and 100 seats.

The BQ could do anywhere between 15 and 30 seats (they could lose a pile but also take from both the cons and Liberals.

The Cons could do anywhere between 100 and 165 but likely will sit at the low end of that.

We have the highest number of undecided seats that could go anywhere on Monday.

We have a full 3 days of red scare tactics with full court media press to go through before voting begins.

 

janfromthebruce

ah, I don't think so!

 

ah

takeitslowly wrote:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HYh_QssNYTc&feature=player_embedded

 

the best youtube video i've seen

 

spread it far and wide

 

 

rockin it!

______________________________________________________________________________________ Our kids live together and play together in their communities, let's have them learn together too!

JKR

BC could make a huge the difference this election, so a huge rally is imparitive to create momentum right before election day.

JACK’S BACK!

Join Jack Layton and your BC New Democrat team for one final, massive rally this Saturday.

Date: Saturday, April 30
Time: 12:30pm
Location: First Avenue Film Studio
4088 1st Ave, Burnaby BC.
Southwest Corner of First Ave. and Gilmore Ave.

Closest Skytrain is Gilmore Skytrain Station

Event Date and Time
Saturday, April 30 - 12:30 pm - 2:30 pm

Event Location
First Avenue Film Studio 4088 1st Ave, Burnaby BC. Southwest Corner of First Ave. and Gilmore Ave.

Transit directions:
From Gilmore Skytrain station, walk 500m NORTH along Gilmore Avenue.

The rally is next to Gilmore Skytrain Station so it's easy to get to.

Gilmore Station is on the Millennium Line.

(While travelling to the event via Skytrain people can contemplate how an NDP government could improve public transit)

flight from kamakura

And the money is rolling in, too. New figures show the party has raked in more than $2.5-million in donations since the writ was dropped March 26, topping the $2.1-million raised during the 2008 campaign. Donations are also up in Ontario and in Alberta.

The party raised $100,000 in online donations on just one day, Tuesday, this week.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/challenge-for-the-ndp-getti...

ilha formosa

If this election campaign could go on until Jack Layton's NDP hit its peak in the polls, what would you all say that peak would be? +40% and majority government in terms of seats?

How resilient would this NDP surge be to a more drawn-out, small-c conservative backlash?

Randomics

ilha formosa wrote:

If this election campaign could go on until Jack Layton's NDP hit its peak in the polls, what would you all say that peak would be? Majority government territory?

I think he may have hit that peak already. The polls have been pretty steady for several days now with the NDP around 30% and the Libs at 22. The Cons have been steady in the 34-38 range for months. The collapse of the Bloc support is what propelled the surge, and while it has spread somewhat, we should not kid ourselves about getting a majority. If, as I expect, the NDP end up with 70-75 seats and form the official opposition, that will be a spectacular triumph, and it will give the caucus some time to season and develop experience and credibility - and make good use of that expanded research budget - before anyone talks about putting them in government. IMHO forming government would be disastrous at this point - ask the Ontario NDP about (perceived) premature success and the white hot scrutiny of a hostile media.

Anonymouse

those polls all cover the same period (e.g. same days) so it's a good thing they all show the NDP at the same strength. More tellingly though, the ones that run a few days later have the NDP higher...when voters see how close Layton is to Harper (e.g. today and yesterday), will that give the numbers a boost (not registered by the polls until Sunday, if at all)? I think so.

Anonymouse

ghoris wrote:

Watching Power and Politics panel right now with Judy WL (NDP), Jaime Watt (Tory) and Alf Apps (Liberal). They've got Watt and Apps sitting next to each other in the studio, with Judy via satellite. With their physical resemblance, Watt and Apps look like Tweedle-dee and Tweedle-dum sitting next to each other there. They are training all their fire on Judy and the NDP and are sounding hysterical and angry doing it.

I think the image for the viewers is great: a) they both sound hysterical about the NDP and b) it reinforces the fact that there is no real difference between the Liberals and Tories - all they know how to do is be negative. Feeds right into the NDP's narrative for the whole campaign.

Solomon doesn't like the tag-team on Judy and he's just got a couple good shots in at Apps and Watt.

Judy just scored a good point on Apps' arrogant attitude and said that it shows why the Liberals are in such a mess right now.

Yeah, Watt and Apps were a mess today. Petty whiners. Judy was much improved.

HornAfrique

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/982356--exclusive-ma...

 

Toronto Star just released a front page exclusive claiming Tory insiders have confided that a majority is now out of reach. This is actually great news for the NDP campaign, as the focus of the campaign can be shifted towards whether Harper's minority can survive.

Anonymouse

CTV was reporting the same and saying that the Conservatives were going to release some vicious attack ads against the NDP in BC.

Malcolm Malcolm's picture

While the surge does seem to have plateaued over the past three days, we should also note the significant movement on the leadership numbers, with Jack passing Harper in NANOS, Harris-Decima and a coouple of others.  As Nanon has noted (and as we saw earlier in the campaign), a boost in leadership numbers often prefigures a comparable boost in voter choice of parties.

The surge has plateaued.  It may not be over.

flight from kamakura

yeah, we could well have hit the high water mark here. the media is hitting the ndp very hard at this point, and some of the candidates have really gone way off, like horribly off (don't want to name names, in case there are less progressive or media forces reading).

still, 1200 in saskatoon, according to sun media, that one seems like it's coming back.

Anonymouse

If you want to know the real reason why Quebeckers are voting for the NDP this time, why not let them speak for themselves?

ghoris

Malcolm wrote:

While the surge does seem to have plateaued over the past three days, we should also note the significant movement on the leadership numbers, with Jack passing Harper in NANOS, Harris-Decima and a coouple of others.  As Nanon has noted (and as we saw earlier in the campaign), a boost in leadership numbers often prefigures a comparable boost in voter choice of parties.

The surge has plateaued.  It may not be over.

I don't know if it's even plateaued yet. According to people better at math than I (including a former Liberal spinner) if you isolate the most recent day of polling in Nanos, he has the NDP ahead. The NDP's number could yet jump as older data is dropped off.

I agree that the HD numbers coming in around the same as AR (35-30-22) is a likely indicator that people have pretty much made up their minds, but it will be very interesting to see if there is any trend in the last few polls. I am particularly interested to see what Ipsos' final numbers are.

DaveW

Globe comes out for Harper:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/editorials/the-globes-election-endorsement-facing-up-to-our-challenges/article2001610/

 I'm so old I can remember the'72 election, when the Star and Globe switched roles, with the Globe endorsing Trudeau's Liberals and the liberal Star going for Stanfield and the Conservatives

 but usually the Globe is Red Tory on its editorial board; if there had been a convincing Liberal Party they made have switched

 

ghoris

Um, the Globe endorsed Stanfield in 74. Are you maybe thinking of 72?

Quote:

A need for change

Globe Editorial from July 6, 1974

Mr. Stanfield has treated the electorate as adults facing a tough situation in an economically precarious world. He has had the courage to offer new initiatives . In order to do this new minds will have to be brought to bear on what are new problems: one of his promises is to replace many of the top civil servants who preside over exiting inflation with new civil servants.

...

At the moment we seem to be rushing toward destruction on a tide of increasingly useless money. That has to be changed. Mr. Stanfield has had the courage to offer change. He should be given the chance.

For such a Red Tory bunch, they sure didn't hesitate to endorse Mulroney (twice) and Harper (three times). Hell, they even endorsed Jean Charest in 1997. They never really even endorsed Chretien - in 1993 they endorsed a Liberal minority, and in 2000 they advocated a vote for the Grits as a vote for a right-wing Martin government, not Chretien.

As for the "Red Star", if memory serves the last time they endorsed someone other than the Liberals was when they endorsed Ed Broadbent and the NDP in 1979.  They were the only major daily to endorse the Grits in 2006 and 2008. I'd be surprised if they didn't endorse them again.

ghoris

Quote:
age plays tricks on your memoryFrown

No problem - I'm finding the same even in my 30s! Wink

We'll have to agree to disagree on Mulroney's legacy - frankly I am hard-pressed to think of even one positive thing he did, apart from his steadfast support of sanctions against apartheid South Africa. No knock against Stephen Lewis and his work at the UN, but even his appointment was used by Mulroney as a fig leaf to cover a series of outrageous patronage appointments.

DaveW

btw, would have liked to post that 1972 editorial caricature by Duncan Macpherson, but obviously they are very wary about reprints, rights, etc., so I found nothing to post;

anyone else work some magic for that '72 cartoon?

DaveW

sorry, I changed the above to 1972 election :

age plays tricks on your memoryFrown

 

that was all the more shocking since Trudeaumania '68 had worn off so quickly for the Star and others (War Measures Act, inflation, arrogance etc.)

there was a famous Macpherson cartoon in the Star of the Globe and Star as whipping boys, but each switching from their usual targets...

 and

 re the Red Tory Globe, yes, it is: that is what opened the breach on its Right 10 years ago for the National Post, which could not stand Globe's tolerance of the mixed economy, some socially progressive initiatives etc.

 and re Mulroney, remember, around here he is All Bad, but he nominated Stephen Lewis to the UN, and for me was exactly right with the Meech negotiations, denounced by his whole right side(and Trudeau), and despite many denunciations introduced pretty much the same value-added tax/GST that every social democrat in Europe has enacted and many US liberals today want enacted

so, of his Big Three -- Meech, GST, free trade -- I go full-in for 2 of them

 

adma

When it comes to "plateau too soon" scenarios, I'm thinking back to Toronto's first Megacity election in 1997, when it looked like Barbara Hall had the inexorable momentum to upset Mel Lastman--only to hit a blind wall...

Anonymouse

Looks like it's true, some BQ affiliates have written letters to their newspapers encouraging BQ voters to cast their ballot for the NDP.

DaveW

I continue to think the best NDP '11 analogy is the PQ in 1973:

volatile electorate, lots more votes,  but relatively few seats with votes spread widely ....

Anonymouse

Robert Fife: Conservatives are also apparently making an ad buy in Ontario to target the NDP and Liberals. Ad buy in Ontario to focus on cost of NDP platform and ask "business" Liberals to vote for the Conservatives to stop the NDP. Ad buy in BC to focus on an NDP coalition with the BQ and Liberals.

Sounds like a last minute effort from the Tories to save their government. As we hit Friday, the aftermath of the royal wedding, and now the weekend, the media coverage is going to go down. The NDP seems to be focussing its efforts today and tomorrow in BC where the party has a serious ground game. 

On election day, Layton is in Toronto.

Anonymouse

Media reports 1,200 showed up to NDP rally in Saskatoon.

Sean in Ottawa

NDP should run ads on how the NDP budget makes sense is costed, is Canadians priorities-- even if they don't want to go neg on Con plan should not let it be out there that the NDP plan is a weakness

 

Could also have run one on the NDP team -- one of strength..

You don't have to respond to attacks by going negative

SRB

Anonymouse wrote:

Media reports 1,200 showed up to NDP rally in Saskatoon.

Is there a possibility that this number was underreported?  I saw a report somewhere that hinted it was more like 1500.

I also remember that CBC kept reporting the number at the Montreal rally as "about a thousand" when I had seen a report in French media that it was more like 1300.

How are these numbers arrived at anyway?

 

Northern Shoveler Northern Shoveler's picture

If they are like protest marches you take the MSM number and the organizer's number and usually the reality is close to double the MSM number and just under the organizers inflation.

KenS

Excellent and unusually non-superficial analytical piece in the Globe.

Jack Layton and the political beanstalk

Anyone know of the author: PATRICK BRETHOUR

KenS

Others have already done mea culpas for having scoffed at North Report's boosterism. I did not say out loud what I thought of that silly prediction of 80 seats and the endeless threads about being the Official Opposition.

I cant imagine a mea culpa I am happier to make. And it is more than just having scoffed at NR. I was having a hard time finding when I could come to Michigan. There was a window that included E-day and the week after. Not being here for a boring and predictable election was not a tough choice. We all need to do our part even when it isnt inspiring. Bt something had to give, and I barely even thought about the choice.

I will do pennance by working the phones in Central Nova- see if we can knock off Peter McKay. If they are not set up for me to long distance pull the vote, maybe I'll do Oshawa.

edmundoconnor

SRB wrote:

How are these numbers arrived at anyway?

Take the number of Tory jaws hitting the floor, multiply by 3 or so.

Policywonk

edmundoconnor wrote:

SRB wrote:

How are these numbers arrived at anyway?

Take the number of Tory jaws hitting the floor, multiply by 3 or so.

To say nothing of the number of fainting Liberals, those without NDP signs on their lawn or in their window.

bekayne

HornAfrique wrote:

http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/982356--exclusive-ma...

 

Toronto Star just released a front page exclusive claiming Tory insiders have confided that a majority is now out of reach. This is actually great news for the NDP campaign, as the focus of the campaign can be shifted towards whether Harper's minority can survive.

The Conservatives are playing everybody like a fiddle. "It's safe now. See, we have no chance at a majority!". Stephen Harper is Keyser Söze

asterix

Yeah, that's what scares me about that article; it might still be a ploy to push down some of the NDP surge by making some of the anti-Harper crowd feel like they don't have to vote or can safely go back to the Liberals.

vermonster

DaveW wrote:

I continue to think the best NDP '11 analogy is the PQ in 1973:

volatile electorate, lots more votes,  but relatively few seats with votes spread widely ....

I'd argue that a better analogy is the PQ in 1976. 

An incumbent (Bourassa) thought that a successful Olympics would boost his popularity. Throughout the campaign the polls narrowed and there was a sense of excitement on the ground - but most political pundits still were predicting that, in the end, the Liberal incumbent would control more seats (even if they were about even with the PQ in the popular vote). 

In the end, the PQ under Levesque increased their popular vote by more than 10% from the 1973 election, and sweep a convincing majority of seats in Quebec.

That was my first election in Quebec. On the ground here, this one feels very very similar. 

 

Arthur Cramer Arthur Cramer's picture

Does anyone know what are Jon Pammet's of Carleton U's politics?

KenS

No idea.

But a caution:

If you want to understand what is going on: it is not the influence of an analysts politics that is determining. The important question is how careful they are in weighing as many factors as well as possible.

nicky

Does anyone know:

1. If there are any Layton rallies in Toronto before the end of the campaign?

2. Where is Layton's party on Monday night?

nicky

Does anyone know:

1. If there are any Layton rallies in Toronto before the end of the campaign?

2. Where is Layton's party on Monday night?

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